Does in utero exposure to Illness matter? The 1918 influenza epidemic in Taiwan as a natural experiment

Centenarians, semi and supercentenarians, COVID-19 and Spanish flu: a serological assessment to gain insight into the resilience of older centenarians to COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Although it is well known that the older people have been the most susceptible to COVID-19, there are conflicting data on the susceptibility of centenarians. Two epidemiological study have shown that older centenarians (> 101 years old at the time of the 2020 pandemic peak) are more resilient than the remaining centenarians, suggesting that this resilience might be linked to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. To gain insight into this matter, specifically whether the resilience of older centenarians to SARS-CoV-2 infection is linked to the Spanish Flu they had been affected by, we conducted a retrospective serological study. This study examined serum samples from 33 centenarians, encompassing semi- (aged > 104 < 110 years, N = 7) and supercentenarians (aged > 109 years, N = 4), born between 1905 and 1922, against both SARS-CoV-2 and 1918 H1N1 pseudotype virus.

RESULTS

Anamnestic and laboratory data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in 8 centenarians. The infection appeared to have been asymptomatic or mild, and hospitalization was not required, despite 3 out of 8 being between 109 and 110 years old. The levels of anti-spike antibodies in centenarians infected and/or vaccinated were higher, although not significantly, than those produced by a random sample of seventy-year-old individuals used as controls. All centenarians had antibody levels against the 1918 H1N1 virus significantly higher (almost 50 times) than those observed in the quoted group of seventy-year-old subjects, confirming the key role in maintaining immunological memory from a priming that occurred over 100 years ago. Centenarians whose blood was collected prior to the pandemic outbreak demonstrated neutralising antibodies against the 1918 H1N1 virus, but all these subjects tested negative for SARS-CoV-2.

CONCLUSION

This retrospective study shows that older centenarians are quite resilient to COVID-19, as they are capable of producing good levels of neutralising antibodies and experiencing mild or asymptomatic disease. This could be attributed to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic through mechanisms other than the presence of cross-reactive antibodies between the 1918 H1N1 virus and SARS-CoV-2. Another possibility is that the association is purely temporal, solely correlated with the advanced age of resilient centenarians compared to those born after 1918, since older centenarians are known to have better control of immune-inflammatory responses.

Race, immunity, and lifespan: Unraveling the effect of early-life exposure to malaria risk on lifespan

We investigate a historical experience to measure the long-term effect of malaria on lifespan among infected survivors and identify a factor that mitigates malaria's effect. Using a sample of Union Army veterans born during the mid-19th century and their lifetime records, we show that exposure to high risk of malaria at birth or in early life substantially shortened their lifespan. The legacy of exposure to malaria is robust while controlling for lifetime socioeconomic and health conditions, fixed effects, and considering selection bias. Additionally, we include the US Colored Troops sample of black veterans to analyze racial differences in the effect of malaria exposure on lifespan. Exposure to malaria did not lead to a shorter lifespan among black veterans. Evidence suggests that genetic immunity to malaria in black veterans might contribute this heterogeneity.

Health of singleton neonates in Switzerland through time and crises: a cross-sectional study at the population level, 2007-2022

BACKGROUND

Being exposed to crises during pregnancy can affect maternal health through stress exposure, which can in return impact neonatal health. We investigated temporal trends in neonatal outcomes in Switzerland between 2007 and 2022 and their variations depending on exposure to the economic crisis of 2008, the flu pandemic of 2009, heatwaves (2015 and 2018) and the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Using individual cross-sectional data encompassing all births occurring in Switzerland at the monthly level (2007-2022), we analysed changes in birth weight and in the rates of preterm birth (PTB) and stillbirth through time with generalized additive models. We assessed whether the intensity or length of crisis exposure was associated with variations in these outcomes. Furthermore, we explored effects of exposure depending on trimesters of pregnancy.

RESULTS

Over 1.2 million singleton births were included in our analyses. While birth weight and the rate of stillbirth have remained stable since 2007, the rate of PTB has declined by one percentage point. Exposure to the crises led to different results, but effect sizes were overall small. Exposure to COVID-19, irrespective of the pregnancy trimester, was associated with a higher birth weight (+12 grams [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.5 to 17.9 grams]). Being exposed to COVID-19 during the last trimester was associated with an increased risk of stillbirth (odds ratio 1.24 [95%CI 1.02 to 1.50]). Exposure to the 2008 economic crisis during pregnancy was not associated with any changes in neonatal health outcomes, while heatwave effect was difficult to interpret.

CONCLUSION

Overall, maternal and neonatal health demonstrated resilience to the economic crisis and to the COVID-19 pandemic in a high-income country like Switzerland. However, the effect of exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic is dual, and the negative impact of maternal infection on pregnancy is well-documented. Stress exposure and economic constraint may also have had adverse effects among the most vulnerable subgroups of Switzerland. To investigate better the impact of heatwave exposure on neonatal health, weekly or daily-level data is needed, instead of monthly-level data.

What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature

What are the insights from historical pandemics for policymaking today? We carry out a systematic review of the literature on the impact of pandemics that occurred since the Industrial Revolution and prior to Covid-19. Our literature searches were conducted between June 2020 and September 2023, with the final review encompassing 169 research papers selected for their relevance to understanding either the demographic or economic impact of pandemics. We include literature from across disciplines to maximise our knowledge base, finding many relevant articles in journals which would not normally be on the radar of social scientists. Our review identifies two gaps in the literature: (1) the need to study pandemics and their effects more collectively rather than looking at them in isolation; and (2) the need for more study of pandemics besides 1918 Spanish Influenza, especially milder pandemic episodes. These gaps are a consequence of academics working in silos, failing to draw on the skills and knowledge offered by other disciplines. Synthesising existing knowledge on pandemics in one place provides a basis upon which to identify the lessons in preparing for future catastrophic disease events.

The roots of healthy aging: investigating the link between early-life and childhood experiences and later-life health

Whilst early-life conditions have been understood to impact upon the health of older adults, further exploration of the field is required. There is a lack of consensus on conceptualising these conditions, and interpretation of experiences are socially and culturally dependent.To advance this important topic we invite authors to submit their research to the Collection on 'The impact of early-life/childhood circumstances or conditions on the health of older adults'.

The impact of pandemics on labour organization: insights from an Italian company archive during the Spanish Flu

In this paper, we discuss the classical modelling approach of pandemics as a negative labour shock. We perform an archival analysis of one of the largest Italian banks (Credito Italiano) during the First World War - Spanish Flu period (1914-1920). In particular, we scrutinise the circulars that the central management of the bank sent out to the local branches, with the aim to assess whether the Spanish Flu has been perceived by contemporaries as an event seriously affecting personnel management. Though restricted to a single case-study, archival evidence does not support the existence of a remarkable negative labour supply shock affecting personnel management because of the Spanish Flu pandemic. Other war-related events probably increased the system's resilience.

Can Universal Cash Transfer Save Newborns' Birth Weight During the Pandemic?

Birth weight is a key human biological characteristic as a measure of prenatal development and a variable related to later quality of life. Studies have firmly established that a stressful situation in utero adversely affects newborns' birth weight. Using birth statistics provided by Statistics Korea, this study examined how universal cash transfer during the COVID-19 crisis affected newborns' birth weight in South Korea. Given that the normal gestation period is nearly 10 months, we chose newborns without a self-selection issue by utilizing information on birthdate and total pregnancy period from the dataset, subsequently applying difference-in-differences estimation. Results showed that universal cash transfer offset newborns' weight loss amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The effects differed according to households' sociodemographic characteristics, with effects being more pronounced for girls; more pronounced for households with more than two children; more pronounced in local districts severely affected during the initial stage of the pandemic, but less significant in metropolitan regions; and more among middle-class families. This study presents evidence that governmental cash transfer during the pandemic has improved newborns' health and that continuing such a policy would positively impact future generations from a health perspective.

Dataset on social and psychological effects of COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey

This data was gathered to investigate how individuals’ levels of intolerance to distress and instant anxiety are related to some of the behaviors that people can change in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We present a dataset based on a four-wave survey of the social and psychological effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey (N = 2,817). Turkey was heavily impacted by the first waves of infections in 2020, and citizens were forced to adapt to governmental measures. So, the dataset provides unique opportunities to investigate the COVID-19 pandemic’s role in shaping people’s intolerance to distress and instant anxiety. The survey considered personal cleaning behavior, bank/credit card usage, online spending habits, individual security perception, and stockpile behavior. Furthermore, in this data, whether an individual or a household member was officially diagnosed with COVID-19 and socio-demographic indicators were determined. Hence, the resulting dataset can enable various analyses on social, psychological, perceived security, and self-rated health, influencing how individuals’ levels of intolerance to distress and instant anxiety.

Impact of early life shocks on educational pursuits–Does a fade out co-exist with persistence?

Background

Changes in climatic conditions have increased the variability in rainfall patterns worldwide. A negative rainfall shock faced by children in the initial 1000 days of life and the resulting malnutrition can harm the likelihood of children’s survival, overall growth, development of the brain, motor skills, and cognitive abilities, leading to poor performance in education and labor market. While the existing findings about the long-run outcomes are mixed, it is essential to understand the nuances in such an estimation.

Methods

Using the exogenous variation in rainfall in India, we estimate the impact of adverse shocks at birth on the cognitive abilities of children at ages 5, 8, 12, and 15, on educational attainments, and the likelihood of studying STEM at higher secondary school.

Results

The Young Lives Survey data from Andhra Pradesh, India, presents evidence of the negative impact of rainfall shocks at birth on cognitive abilities from age 5 to 8, attenuating at age 12. Using nationally representative data, while we investigate the impact of adverse rainfall shocks at birth on academic performance measured by the high school grades and STEM choice at higher secondary school, we do not find a persistent impact.

Conclusion

We unfold the impact of rainfall shocks on a chain of outcomes connected to long-run educational pursuits, as it helps to identify the most crucial stage for policymaking. Since STEM subjects are strongly associated with the labor market, connecting the association with early life shocks seems to be an essential addition to the literature. While we find evidence of reduced cognitive abilities in the early years, those do not seem to persist in the long run. The potential sample selection or attrition biases and the estimates of those biases can explain the nuances of estimating the long-run impact of adverse shocks at birth.

Pandemic influenza and gender imbalance: Mortality selection before births

This study uses data from the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan along with newly digitized and complete census records on births and infant deaths to analyze mortality selection in utero. I find that fetal exposure to the influenza pandemic during the first trimester of the pregnancy decreases the proportion of males at birth. The results from mechanism analysis suggest that this decline in male births is associated with the deterioration of fetal and infant health. This result supports a wide range of existing literature on the long-run adverse effects of pandemic influenza.

The Impact of Maternal Prenatal Stress Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic during the First 1000 Days: A Historical Perspective

The COVID-19 pandemic has a major impact on society, particularly affecting its vulnerable members, including pregnant women and their unborn children. Pregnant mothers reported fear of infection, fear of vertical transmission, fear of poor birth and child outcomes, social isolation, uncertainty about their partner's presence during medical appointments and delivery, increased domestic abuse, and other collateral damage, including vaccine hesitancy. Accordingly, pregnant women's known vulnerability for mental health problems has become a concern during the COVID-19 pandemic, also because of the known effects of prenatal stress for the unborn child. The current narrative review provides a historical overview of transgenerational effects of exposure to disasters during pregnancy, and the role of maternal prenatal stress. We place these effects into the perspective of the COVID-19 pandemic. Hereby, we aim to draw attention to the psychological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women of reproductive age (15-49 year) and its potential associated short-term and long-term consequences for the health of children who are conceived, carried, and born during this pandemic. Timely detection and intervention during the first 1000 days is essential to reduce the burden of transgenerational effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Intergenerational health effects of Medicaid

This paper investigates the effects of the introduction of Medicaid during the 1960s on next generations' birth outcomes. A federal mandate that all states must widen the coverage to all cash welfare recipients generated cross-state variations in Medicaid eligibility, specifically among nonwhites who largely overrepresented the target population. I implement a reduced-form difference-in-differences strategy that compares the birth outcomes of mothers born in states with higher cash welfare recipiency versus low welfare recipiency and different years relative to the Medicaid implementation year. Using Natality data (1970-2004), I find that Medicaid significantly improves birth outcomes. The effects are considerably larger among nonwhites, specifically blacks. The effects do not appear to be driven by preexisting trends in birth outcomes, preexisting trends in households' socioeconomic characteristics, changes in other welfare expenditures, and selective fertility. A back-of-an-envelope calculation points to a minimum of 3.9% social externality of Medicaid through income rises due to next generations' improvements in birth outcomes.

Wrong place, wrong time: The long-run effects of in-utero exposure to malaria on educational attainment

This paper investigates the long-term relationship between early life exposure to malaria and human capital accumulation in Brazil. The identification strategy relies on exogenous variation in the risk of malaria outbreaks in different states and seasons of the year to identify in utero exposure according to the timing and location of birth. I find consistent negative treatment effects of in utero exposure to malaria on educational attainment. The effects are stronger for exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy than during other periods of gestation. Effective anti-malaria policies can, thus, be an important factor contributing to reducing the educational inequality by targeting pregnant women, especially those in their first months of gestation.

Social distancing and influenza mortality in 1918 did not increase suicide rates in the United States

Recent research has suggested that the social distancing mandates introduced in the United States during the main waves of the 1918-20 influenza pandemic caused an increase in suicide rates. However, that finding relies on poor-quality, temporally mismatched data and has signs of omitted variable bias. Similarly, a long-standing finding that American suicide rates in 1918-20 were also boosted by the influenza mortality of the time has gone unquestioned in the literature, despite the original research admitting its risk of ecological fallacy. Using higher-powered mortality data, I cast doubt on both findings by analyzing the experiences of the pandemic in 43 of the largest American cities of the time. In line with some populations' experiences of COVID-19, I report tentative evidence that social distancing mandates during the 1918-20 pandemic may have been associated with decreased suicide rates. Larger, cross-national investigations of the effects of historical pandemics and social distancing mandates on mental health and suicide are needed.

The effects of in-utero exposure to influenza on mental health and mortality risk throughout the life-course

Studies examining the later-life health consequences of in-utero exposure to influenza have typically estimated effects on physical health conditions, with little evidence of effects on mental health outcomes or mortality. Previous studies have also relied primarily on reduced-form estimates of the effects of exposure to influenza pandemics, meaning they are unlikely to recover effects of influenza exposure at an individual-level. This paper uses inverse probability of treatment weighting and "doubly-robust" methods alongside rare mother-reported data on in-utero influenza exposure to estimate the individual-level effect of in-utero influenza exposure on mental health and mortality risk throughout childhood and adulthood. We find that in-utero exposure to influenza is associated with small reductions in mental health in mid-childhood, driven by increases in internalising symptoms, and increases in depressive symptoms in mid-life for males. There is also evidence that in-utero influenza exposure is associated with substantial increases in mortality, although these effects are primarily driven by a 75% increase in the probability of being stillborn, with limited evidence of additional survival disadvantages at later ages. The potential for mortality selection implies that estimated effects on mental health outcomes are likely to represent a lower bound.

Consider This Before Using the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Pandemic as an Instrumental Variable in an Epidemiologic Study

Epidemiologists sometimes use external sources of variation to explore highly-confounded exposure-outcome relationships or exposures that cannot be randomized. These exogenous sources of variation, or natural experiments, are sometimes proposed as instrumental variables to examine the effects of a given exposure(s) on a given outcome(s). Previous epidemiological studies have applied this technique using famines, earthquakes, weather events, and previous pandemics as exogenous sources of variation for other exposures; interest in applying this technique using the current severe acute respiratory system coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is already documented. Yet, large-scale events like these likely have broad and complicated impacts on human health, which almost certainly violates the exclusion restriction assumption of instrumental variable analyses. We review the assumptions of instrumental variable analyses, highlight previous applications of this method with respect to natural experiments with broad impacts or “shocks”, and discuss how these relate to our current observations of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. While we encourage thorough investigation of the broad impacts of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on human health, we caution against its widespread use as an instrumental variable to study other exposures of interest.

Will prenatal exposure to SARS-CoV-2 define a birth cohort with accelerated aging in the century ahead?

The 1918 Influenza pandemic had long-term impacts on the cohort exposed in utero which experienced earlier adult mortality, and more diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and depression after age 50. It is possible that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will also have long-term impacts on the cohort that was in utero during the pandemic, from exposure to maternal infection and/or the stress of the pandemic environment. We discuss how COVID-19 disease during pregnancy may affect fetal and postnatal development with adverse impacts on health and aging. Severe maternal infections are associated with an exaggerated inflammatory response, thromboembolic events, and placental vascular malperfusion. We also discuss how in utero exposure to the stress of the pandemic, without maternal infection, may impact health and aging. Several recently initiated birth cohort studies are tracking neonatal health following in utero severe acute respiratory syndrome virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exposure. We suggest these cohort studies develop plans for longer-term observations of physical, behavioral, and cognitive functions that are markers for accelerated aging, as well as methods to disentangle the effects of maternal infection from stresses of the pandemic environment. In utero exposure to COVID-19 disease could cause developmental difficulties and accelerated aging in the century ahead. This brief review summarizes elements of the developmental origins of health, disease, and ageing and discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic might exacerbate such effects. We conclude with a call for research on the long-term consequences of in utero exposure to maternal infection with COVID-19 and stresses of the pandemic environment.

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on insurance demand: the case of China

The COVID-19 has been a worldwide pandemic and it needs for studies related to effect on people's demand for insurance during the pandemic which is an important way to transfer risk. However, there is a lack of research linking COVID-19 and people's demand for insurance. The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on issuance demand, using data covering 241 cities on confirmed COVID-19 cases and insurance company revenue in China. The empirical results show that more confirmed COVID-19 cases are associated with greater per capita insurance revenue and the results are robust when considering endogeneity concern. Economically, the per capita insurance revenue increases by 0.896 Yuan for each more confirmed case. In terms of insurance type, the greatest increased insurance revenue is for life insurance, followed by health insurance. We further consider the heterogeneity of regions and find that the impact of COVID-19 on insurance revenue only exists in regions with worse medical treatment conditions or higher medical burden.

Fetal origins-A life cycle model of health and aging from conception to death

The fetal origins hypothesis suggests that health and nutrition shocks in utero are causally related to health deficits in old age. It has received considerable empirical support, both within epidemiology and economics but so far it has not been integrated into a life cycle theory of human aging and longevity. The present study shows that the health deficit model, based on the frailty index developed in gerontology, generates shock amplification consistent with the hypothesis. In order to discuss human health over the life cycle from conception to death, we develop a theory of ontogenetic growth and health in utero and during childhood, unify it with the health deficit model of adult aging, and discuss the transmission of early-life shocks to late-life health deficit accumulation.

Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu

Recent studies argue that major crises can have long-lasting effects on individual behavior. While most studies focused on natural disasters, we explore the consequences of the global pandemic caused by a lethal influenza virus in 1918-19: the so-called "Spanish Flu." This was by far the worst pandemic of modern history, causing up to 100 million deaths worldwide. Using information about attitudes of respondents to the General Social Survey, we find evidence that experiencing the pandemic likely had permanent consequences in terms of individuals' social trust. Our findings suggest that lower social trust was passed on to the descendants of the survivors of the Spanish Flu who migrated to the United States. As trust is a crucial factor for long-term economic development, our research offers a new angle from which to assess current health threats.

Assessing the effects of autarchic policies on the biological well-being: Analysis of deviations in cohort male height in the Valencian Community (Spain) during Francoist regime

This article aims to assess the impact of autarchic policies on the biological dimensions of human well-being during Francoist regime in Spain. This is done by examining the nutritional status of the population through the study of male adult heights. Our case study is the Valencian Community with the focus on the period 1940-59 which witnessed the implementation of such policies. The heights of 21-year old draftees born between 1900 and 1954 from nine municipalities (N = 87,510) were analyzed in the light of inter-cohort deviations from a secular trend established for cohorts that were not exposed to autarchy-related hardships. Height was regressed on infant mortality as a way to control for infection and therefore approach the net effect of nutrition on height outcomes. Contrarily to what was displayed by cohort height trends in themselves, the results reveal a significant worsening of the nutritional status of the male population at the time. Deviations from the expected height trend across municipalities ranged between -0.5 and -3.4 mm per year. The effects of malnutrition are found to be larger among cohorts born in the period 1920-34 in coherence with a longer exposure to autarchy hardships during adolescence. Pre-autarchy nutrition levels observed among the cohorts of 1900-14 were not regained until the cohorts 1945-49. The results also show that malnutrition had an unequal impact with the large industrial towns of our sample experiencing the poorest height outcomes. Overall, these results invite to revise conclusions obtained from the sole evidence of height trends and they question the efficiency of intervention policies implemented in Spain during the 1940s.

Long-lasting effects of pandemics: The case of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Argentina

The 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic poses a serious threat. While its short-term effects are evident, its long-term consequences are a matter of analysis. In this work, the existence of long-lasting negative effects derived from exposure in utero to a great pandemic -1918 influenza pandemic- is analysed for the Argentine case. Outcomes of interest include educational achievement and unemployment status in adulthood -50 years after the pandemic. Based on a regression analysis, temporal differences in the spread of the pandemic and between close birth cohorts are exploited. The results indicate a significant reduction in educational achievement for people exposed in utero to the pandemic. In the region with the highest incidence of cases (Noroeste), this reduction is 0.5 years of education. There are no significant changes in the chances of being unemployed. In the context of climate change, these results constitute a call of attention for the implementation of child protection policies from gestation.

Sunlight and Protection Against Influenza

Recent medical literature suggests that vitamin D supplementation protects against acute respiratory tract infection. Humans exposed to sunlight produce vitamin D directly. This paper investigates how differences in sunlight, as measured over several years across states and during the same calendar week, affect influenza incidence. We find that sunlight strongly protects against getting influenza. This relationship is driven almost entirely by the severe H1N1 epidemic in fall 2009. A 10% increase in relative sunlight decreases the influenza index in September or October by 1.1 points on a 10-point scale. A second, complementary study employs a separate data set to study flu incidence in counties in New York State. The results are strongly in accord.

The impact of pandemics: revising the Spanish Flu in Italy in light of models’ predictions, and some lessons for the Covid-19 pandemic

We consider some descriptive analysis of the main short- and medium-term economic indicators in Italy in the aftermath of the Spanish Flu pandemic. We analyse them in the light of the main neoclassical macroeconomic models of pandemics. Since most of the existing economic models about the consequences of a pandemic deal the pandemic event merely as a negative labour supply shock, we observe that some predictions of the theory about the economic impact of a pandemic seem not to be confirmed in the case of the Spanish Flu in Italy. In particular, economic indicators in Italy in the upsurge of the Spanish Flu need to be explained also in light of the consequences of the First World War. We use this evidence to discuss the predictions on the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. We stress the importance of putting the analysis of the economic consequences of the current pandemic into the appropriate historical context.

Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19

How might COVID-19 affect human capital and wellbeing in the long run? The COVID-19 pandemic has already imposed a heavy human cost-taken together, this public health crisis and its attendant economic downturn appear poised to dwarf the scope, scale, and disruptiveness of most modern pandemics. What evidence we do have about other modern pandemics is largely limited to short-run impacts. Consequently, recent experience can do little to help us anticipate and respond to COVID-19's potential long-run impact on individuals over decades and even generations. History, however, offers a solution. Historical crises offer closer analogues to COVID-19 in each of its key dimensions-as a global pandemic, as a global recession-and offer the runway necessary to study the life-course and intergenerational outcomes. In this paper, we review the evidence on the long-run effects on health, labor, and human capital of both historical pandemics (with a focus on the 1918 Influenza Pandemic) and historical recessions (with a focus on the Great Depression). We conclude by discussing how past crises can inform our approach to COVID-19-helping tell us what to look for, what to prepare for, and what data we ought to collect now.

Reorienting Nurturing Care for Early Childhood Development during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Kenya: A Review

In Kenya, millions of children have limited access to nurturing care. With the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it is anticipated that vulnerable children will bear the biggest brunt of the direct and indirect impacts of the pandemic. This review aimed to deepen understanding of the effects of COVID-19 on nurturing care from conception to four years of age, a period where the care of children is often delivered through caregivers or other informal platforms. The review has drawn upon the empirical evidence from previous pandemics and epidemics, and anecdotal and emerging evidence from the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. Multifactorial impacts fall into five key domains: direct health; health and nutrition systems; economic protection; social and child protection; and child development and early learning. The review proposes program and policy strategies to guide the reorientation of nurturing care, prevent the detrimental effects associated with deteriorating nurturing care environments, and support the optimal development of the youngest and most vulnerable children. These include the provision of cash transfers and essential supplies for vulnerable households and strengthening of community-based platforms for nurturing care. Further research on COVID-19 and the ability of children's ecology to provide nurturing care is needed, as is further testing of new ideas.

Childhood vaccinations and adult schooling attainment: Long-term evidence from India's Universal Immunization Programme

Routine childhood vaccines are among the most cost-effective life-saving interventions. In addition, vaccines have been linked with reduced stunting and improved health and other outcomes in later life. However, evidence on such long-term benefits remain inadequate. In this study, we examined the associations between the initiation and implementation of the Universal Immunization Programme (UIP) in India and schooling attainment among adults. We obtained district-level data on the rollout of the UIP in 1985-1990 and matched those with data from the National Family Health Survey of India, 2015-2016. Adults who were born in the five years before and after the rollout period (1980-1995) and always lived in the same location were included in the analysis (n=109,908). We employed household, village or city ward, district, and state fixed-effects linear regression models, which incorporated a wide range of socioeconomic and demographic indicators and community-level infrastructure, amenities, and access to healthcare. We compared schooling attainment in years among individuals who were born during or after the UIP was implemented in their districts (intervention group) with those who were born before UIP implementation (control group). In household fixed-effects analysis, intervention group adults attained 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02, 0.33; p<0.05) more schooling grades as compared with control group adults from the same household. In village or city ward, district, and state fixed-effects analysis, intervention group adults attained 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13, 0.32; p<0.001), 0.29 (95% CI: 0.19, 0.38; p<0.001), and 0.25 (95% CI: 0.1, 0.39; p<0.01) additional schooling grades, respectively, compared to the control group. In subgroup analyses, positive associations between UIP implementation and schooling grades were observed among women and among rural, urban, and richer households. Our results support the association of vaccines with improved school attainment.

The Long-Lasting Influenza: The Impact of Fetal Stress During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on Socioeconomic Attainment and Health in Sweden, 1968-2012

The 1918 influenza pandemic had not only a massive instant death toll but also lasting effects on its survivors. Several studies have shown that children born in 1919, and thus exposed to the H1N1 virus in utero, experienced worse health and socioeconomic outcomes in older ages than surrounding birth cohorts. This study combines several sources of contemporary statistics with full-population individual-level data for Sweden during 1968-2012 to examine the influence of fetal exposure to the Spanish flu on health, adulthood income, and occupational attainment. For both men and women, fetal exposure resulted in higher morbidity in ages 54-87, as measured by hospitalization. For males, exposure during the second trimester also affected mortality in cancer and heart disease. Overall, the effects on all-cause mortality were modest, with about three months shorter remaining life expectancy for the cohorts exposed during the second trimester. For socioeconomic outcomes, results fail to provide consistent evidence supporting any long-term consequences of fetal exposure. We conclude that although the immediate health effects of exposure to the 1918 pandemic were huge, the long-term effects were modest in size.

Early-life exposure to weather shocks and child height: Evidence from industrializing Japan

In this study, we estimate the long-run effects of early-life exposure to weather shocks on the height of primary school children. To estimate the global impacts on almost the entire child population in an industrializing country, we utilize both a unique nationwide multi-dimensional longitudinal dataset of Japanese children aged 6-11 and official monthly statistics on meteorological conditions in the 1920s. We observe that the exposure to cold waves in early-life exerted stunting effects on both the boys and girls. In the coldest regions in the northeastern area of Japan, the stunting effects of cold weather shocks on the boys and girls are estimated to be approximately 0.8 and 0.6 cm, respectively. Our observation indicates that prenatal (postnatal) exposure is important for the boys (girls). Our results suggest that the marginal effects of cold waves are stronger in the warmer regions than in the colder regions.

Developmental programming of aging trajectory

There is accumulating evidence that aging phenotype and longevity may be developmentally programmed. Main mechanisms linking developmental conditions to later-life health outcomes include persistent changes in epigenetic regulation, (re)programming of major endocrine axes such as growth hormone/insulin-like growth factor axis and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and also early-life immune maturation. Recently, evidence has also been generated on the role of telomere biology in developmental programming of aging trajectory. In addition, persisting changes of intestinal microbiota appears to be crucially involved in these processes. In this review, experimental and epidemiological evidence on the role of early-life conditions in programming of aging phenotypes are presented and mechanisms potentially underlying these associations are discussed.

The long-run effects of pandemic influenza on the development of children from elite backgrounds: Evidence from industrializing Japan

This study estimates the lingering effects of fetal exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic on the development of secondary school and girls' high school students in industrializing Japan. In order to refine the verification of the fetal origins hypothesis, we tried not only to focus on children from elite schools but also to construct the continuous influenza mortality measure using monthly variations in the number of births and influenza deaths. By utilizing a nationwide multidimensional physical examination dataset, we found that fetal exposure to influenza in the pandemic years reduced the heights of boys and girls by approximately 0.3 cm and 0.1 cm, respectively. While the strongest negative magnitude was observed in the pandemic period, the lingering relapses in the post-pandemic period still had considerable adverse effects on height. In relation to the lowest decile group which experienced normal influenza mortality in non-pandemic years, the heights of the boys and girls who experienced pandemic influenza in the womb are approximately 0.6 and 0.3 cm lower. The lingering influenza relapse in the post-pandemic period has an adverse effect on the boys' height, accounting for roughly 80% of the maximum pandemic effect.

Early prenatal exposure to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) infection and child psychomotor development at 6 months - A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Studies investigating gestational influenza and child neurodevelopment are still scarce, particularly concerning timing of infection in pregnancy. This is the first study to investigate associations between gestational influenza and infant psychomotor development and temperament at 6 months.

METHODS

Data from The Norwegian Influenza Pregnancy Cohort, established during the 2009 swine flu pandemic, were utilized. Information on influenza infection, vaccination, maternal health and child health and development is available from questionnaires, national registry data and maternal blood samples drawn at delivery. Maternal influenza A H1N1 pdm09 infection was serologically confirmed. 609 children with complete data were identified. Children of exposed and non-exposed mothers were compared using generalized linear models.

RESULTS

Children exposed to influenza during gestational weeks (gw) 0-8 had adjusted general development scores indicating slightly delayed development compared to non-exposed children (0.28 standard deviations (SD) 95% confidence interval (CI): -0. 01; 0.58; p = 0.06). The temperamental scores of children exposed during gw 0-8 were slightly higher (0.31 SD; 95% CI: -0. 03; 0.64; p = 0.07) than non-exposed children indicating a more difficult temperament. In comparison, the developmental scores for children exposed in gw 9-40 were -0.31 SD (95% CI: -0. 65; 0.04; p = 0.09) better than non-exposed children, while the temperamental scores were 0.17 (95% CI: -0. 23; 0.56; p = 0.36) for the same period.

CONCLUSION

Modest associations were found between maternal influenza A (H1N1) pdm infection during gestational weeks 0-8 and psychomotor development at 6 months.

Violence, selection and infant mortality in Congo

This paper documents the effects of the recent civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo on mortality both in utero and during the first year of life. It instruments for conflict intensity using a mineral price index, which exploits the exogenous variation in the potential value of mineral resources generated by changes in world mineral prices to predict the geographic distribution of the conflict. Using estimates of civil war exposure on mortality across male and female newborn to assess their relative health, it provides evidence of culling effect (in utero selection) as a consequence of in utero shocks.

Long-run effects of early childhood exposure to cholera on final height: Evidence from industrializing Japan

Pandemic cholera is one of the most topical and urgent issues in many developing countries. However, although a growing body of research has shown the negative long-run effects of infectious disease exposure on human health, the long-run influences of early childhood exposure to cholera have thus far been understudied. To bridge this gap in the body of knowledge, we draw both on new data describing adult height from 1899 to 1910 from comprehensive official Japanese army records and on data recording the regional variation in the intensity of cholera pandemics. By using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that exposure to pandemic cholera had stunting effects on the final height of men at that time. Our estimates also suggest that early-infancy exposure to cholera seems to have a stronger long-run effect on adult height than late-infancy exposure.

DO IN UTERO SHOCKS HAVE ADVERSE EFFECTS ON CHILD HEALTH OUTCOMES AND CAN WELFARE SCHEMES AMELIORATE SUCH EFFECTS? EVIDENCE FROM ANDHRA PRADESH, INDIA

This study aimed to assess whether shocks experienced by children in the mother's womb can have an adverse effect on their future health, and whether these effects can be ameliorated by government welfare schemes. Data were taken from three phases of the Young Lives Survey carried out in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh in 2002, 2007 and 2009-2010. Different types of in utero shock were distinguished from the data. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation, it was observed that multiple in utero shocks reduced children's weight-for-age and height-for-age z-scores by 0.07-0.08 and 0.08-0.15 units respectively. The roles of two Indian government welfare schemes - the Midday Meal Scheme (MDMS) and the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) - in mitigating the adverse effects of in utero shocks were examined. While the effect of the MDMS was statistically insignificant, that of the NREGS was significant. Although not designed to protect child health, the NREGS has been playing a more effective role than the MDMS in acting as a buffer against the damaging effects of in utero shocks on child health. The study points to the need for greater co-ordination between the two welfare schemes.

1918 Influenza Pandemic: In Utero Exposure in the United States and Long-Term Impact on Hospitalizations

OBJECTIVES

To explore associations between in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic and hospitalization rates in old age (≥ 70 years) in the United States.

METHODS

We identified individuals exposed (mild and deadly waves) and unexposed in utero to the 1918 influenza pandemic (a natural experiment) by using birth dates from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old survey. We analyzed differences in hospitalization rates by exposure status with multivariate linear regression.

RESULTS

In utero exposure to the deadly wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic increased the number of hospital visits by 10.0 per 100 persons. For those exposed in utero to the deadliest wave of the influenza pandemic, high rates of functional limitations are shown to drive the higher rates of hospitalizations in old age.

CONCLUSIONS

In utero exposure to the influenza pandemic increased functional limitations and hospitalization rates in old age. Public Health Implications. To determine investments in influenza pandemic prevention programs that protect fetal health, policymakers should include long-term reductions in hospitalizations in their cost-benefit evaluations.

Did the 1918 influenza cause the twentieth century cardiovascular mortality epidemic in the United States?

During most of the twentieth century, cardiovascular mortality increased in the United States while other causes of death declined. By 1958, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for cardiovascular causes for females was 1.84 times that for all other causes, combined (and, for males, 1.79×). Although contemporary observers believed that cardiovascular mortality would remain high, the late 1950s and early 1960s turned out to be the peak of a roughly 70-year epidemic. By 1988 for females (1986 for males), a spectacular decline had occurred, wherein the ASDR for cardiovascular causes was less than that for other causes combined. We discuss this phenomenon from a demographic point of view. We also test a hypothesis from the literature, that the 1918 influenza pandemic caused the cardiovascular mortality epidemic; we fail to find support.

'Mommy, I miss daddy'. The effect of family structure on children's health in Brazil

This paper studies the relationship between single motherhood and children's height-for-age z-scores in Brazil. In order to isolate the causal effect between family structure and children's condition, we estimate an econometric model that uses male preference for firstborn sons and local sex ratios to instrument the probability of a woman becoming a single mother. Our results have a local average treatment effect interpretation (LATE). We find that children being raised by a single mother (whose marital status is affected by a firstborn girl and a low sex ratio) have a height-for-age z-score that is lower than that of children of similar characteristics that cohabit with both progenitors. We claim that the increasing trend of single motherhood in Brazil should be of concern in health policy design.

Role of the kidney in the fetal programming of adult cardiovascular disease: an update

It is well established that an adverse in utero environment can impinge upon fetal development and place the offspring on a track leading to future cardiovascular disease. Significantly, this may occur in the absence of any outward manifestations at birth. In this brief review, we focus on potential renal mechanisms that lead to adaptations in glomerular and tubular function that initiate hypertension of developmental origin and examine potential therapeutic interventions. This report updates recent data in this field.

Fertility Decline and the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Taiwan

The impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on human fertility has been subject to significant scholarly debate. The current study characterizes the inter-temporal association between excess deaths during the pandemic and the subsequent birth deficit by identifying the length of time between these two phenomena using cross-correlations of monthly death and birth data from Taiwan from 1906 to 1943. The analysis demonstrates a strong and negative correlation between deaths (d) at time t and births (b) at time t + 9 (r(db)(9) = -0.68, p < .0001). In other words, a significant drop in births was observed nine months after pandemic mortality peaked. The findings suggest that the 1918 influenza pandemic impacted subsequent births primarily through the mechanism of reduced conceptions and embryonic loss during the first month of pregnancy rather than through late-first-trimester embryonic loss.

Early-life origins of life-cycle well-being: research and policy implications

Mounting evidence across different disciplines suggests that early-life conditions can have consequences on individual outcomes throughout the life cycle. Relative to other developed countries, the United States fares poorly on standard indicators of early-life health, and this disadvantage may have profound consequences not only for population well-being, but also for economic growth and competitiveness in a global economy. In this paper, we first discuss the research on the strength of the link between early-life health and adult outcomes, and then provide an evidence-based review of the effectiveness of existing U.S. policies targeting the early-life environment. We conclude that there is a robust and economically meaningful relationship between early-life conditions and well-being throughout the life cycle, as measured by adult health, educational attainment, labor market attachment, and other indicators of socioeconomic status. However, there is some variation in the degree to which current policies in the United States are effective in improving early-life conditions. Among existing programs, some of the most effective are the Special Supplemental Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), home visiting with nurse practitioners, and high-quality, center-based early-childhood care and education. In contrast, the evidence on other policies such as prenatal care and family leave is more mixed and limited.

Epigenetic programming by early-life stress: Evidence from human populations

BACKGROUND

A substantial body of experimental and epidemiological evidence has been accumulated suggesting that stressful events in early life including acute perinatal stress, maternal deprivation or separation, and variation in maternal care may lead to neuroendocrine perturbations thereby affecting reproductive performance, cognitive functions, and stress responses as well as the risk for infectious, cardio-metabolic and psychiatric diseases in later life.

RESULTS

Findings from recent studies based on both genome-wide and candidate gene approaches highlighted the importance of mechanisms that are involved in epigenetic regulation of gene expression, such as DNA methylation, histone modifications, and non-coding RNAs, in the long-term effects of exposure to stress in early life.

CONCLUSIONS

This review is focused on the findings from human studies indicating the role of epigenetic mechanisms in the causal link between early-life stress and later-life health outcomes.

The intergenerational transmission of inequality: maternal disadvantage and health at birth

Health at birth is an important predictor of long-term outcomes, including education, income, and disability. Recent evidence suggests that maternal disadvantage leads to worse health at birth through poor health behaviors; exposure to harmful environmental factors; worse access to medical care, including family planning; and worse underlying maternal health. With increasing inequality, those at the bottom of the distribution now face relatively worse economic conditions, but newborn health among the most disadvantaged has actually improved. The most likely explanation is increasing knowledge about determinants of infant health and how to protect it along with public policies that put this knowledge into practice.