A validated clinical tool for the prediction of varices in PBC: the Newcastle Varices in PBC Score

Clinically significant portal hypertension in patients with primary biliary cholangitis: Clinicopathological features and prognostic value

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) may progress to clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) before the development of cirrhosis. This study aimed to investigate CSPH incidence as well as the clinicopathological characteristics and predictive value of these features for the prognosis of patients with PBC, especially at early histologic stage.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients diagnosed with PBC between January 2013 and April 2022 were retrospectively enrolled. The prognostic value of baseline clinicopathological characteristics for long-term outcomes in PBC patients with CSPH was assessed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and COX regression analysis.

RESULTS

Among 280 patients with PBC, 104 underwent liver biopsy and 68 were at early histologic stage. CSPH was present in 47.2 % of participants with 20.6 % at early histologic stage. CSPH was a risk factor for predicting the liver transplant-free survival in PBC patients (hazard ratio [HR], 6.78; 95 % CI, 2.94-15.63), especially those at early stage. Perisinusoidal fibrosis and nodular regenerative hyperplasia (NRH) were common histopathological features in PBC patients with CSPH at the early stages. Fibrous septa formation in the hepatic lobules (HR, 4.85; 95 % CI, 1.51-15.52) and cholestasis (HR, 7.70; 95 % CI, 2.56-23.18) were independent predictors of adverse outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

CSPH indicates an increased risk of adverse outcomes in PBC patients, especially those in early histologic stage. Perisinusoidal fibrosis and NRH are valuable histological features of CSPH in patients with early-stage PBC. Identification of clinicopathological features and assessment of portal hypertension (especially at early stage), contribute to the development of personalized strategies.

Spleen Thickness Plus Platelets Can Effectively and Safely Screen for High-Risk Varices in Cirrhosis Patients

Currently, most primary hospitals cannot routinely perform liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) and spleen stiffness measurements (SSMs), which are recommended by guidelines to exclude high-risk varices (HRVs). We tried to find more convenient indicators for HRV screening. We enrolled 213 cirrhosis patients as the training cohort (TC) and 65 primary biliary cirrhosis patients as the validation cohort (VC). We included indicators such as SSM by two-dimensional shear wave elastography, LSM by transient elastography, and other imaging and laboratory tests. Variable analysis revealed SSM, platelets (PLT), and spleen thickness (ST) as independent risk indicators for HRV. In TC, ST+PLT (ST < 42.2 mm and PLT > 113.5 × 109/L) could avoid 35.7% of the esophagogastroduodenoscopies (EGDs), with a 2.4% missed HRV rate. Although the proportion of EGDs spared by ST+PLT was less than SSM+PLT (SSM < 29.89 kPa + PLT > 113.5 × 109/L) (35.7% vs. 44.1%), it was higher than that of the Baveno VI criteria (B6) (35.7% vs. 28.2%). We did not validate SSM+PLT in VC considering our aims. ST+PLT safely spared 24.6% of EGDs in VC, identical to B6. Conclusions: The ability of ST+PLT to exclude HRVs was superior to B6 but slightly inferior to SSM+PLT. When SSM cannot be routinely performed, ST+PLT provides an extra option for patients to exclude HRVs as a more convenient model.

Portal pressure is of significant prognostic value in primary biliary cholangitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In other forms of chronic liver disease, measurement of portal pressure is of prognostic value, but this has not yet been established in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim of the study is to determine the prognostic value of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) in relation to liver-related survival outcomes, as well as to the development of hepatic decompensation, oesophageal varices and variceal bleeding.

METHODS

Baseline HVPG and liver biopsies were obtained in 86 patients followed for 10 years in a controlled trial of colchicine treatment, and subsequently in a long-term observational cohort study for a further 30 years.

RESULTS

There were 49 Hepatic deaths in addition to 10 Liver Transplants (Hepatic death/transplant; n = 59). Some of these were associated with a significant variceal bleed within 3 months of death or transplant (Portal hypertension-associated death or transplant; n = 19). There were 63 deaths from all causes. During follow-up, oesophageal varices developed in 26 patients, whilst 17 bled from varices and 32 developed hepatic decompensation over a median follow-up of 18.1 years (1.9-28.5). Baseline HVPG was highly predictive of all 6 clinical outcomes and contributed significant predictive information additional to that provided by Mayo score and Ludwig stage.

CONCLUSION

Measurement of baseline portal pressure is of significant prognostic value in primary biliary cholangitis.

Noninvasive Evaluation of Fibrosis and Portal Hypertension in Primary Biliary Cholangitis

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease that, if left untreated or insufficiently treated, inexorably progresses toward cirrhosis and its potentially fatal complications. Alongside with the biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid therapy, advanced liver fibrosis and portal hypertension (PH) were shown to be major prognostic determinants in PBC. Therefore, one of the goals of noninvasive PBC evaluation should be to early diagnose compensated advanced disease and/or clinically significant PH. In this article, the main methods of noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis and PH in PBC, and their clinical relevance, will be reviewed.

Distinct prognostic value of different portal hypertension-associated features in patients with primary biliary cholangitis

BACKGROUND

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) may progress to cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). This study assesses different features of CSPH and their distinct prognostic impact regarding decompensation and survival in patients with PBC.

METHODS

Patients with PBC were identified during a database query of our digital patient reporting system.

RESULTS

A total of 333 PBC patients (mean age 54.3 years, 86.8% females, median follow-up 5.8 years) were retrospectively assessed and 127 (38.1%) showed features of CSPH: 63 (18.9%) developed varices, 98 (29.4%) splenomegaly, 62 (18.6%) ascites and 20 (15.7%) experienced acute variceal bleeding. Splenomegaly, portosystemic collaterals and esophageal varices were associated with an increased 5-year (5Y) risk of decompensation (15.0%, 17.8% and 20.9%, respectively). Patients without advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) had a similar 5Y-transplant free survival (TFS) (96.6%) compared to patients with compensated ACLD (cACLD) but without CSPH (96.9%). On the contrary, PBC patients with cACLD and CSPH (57.4%) or decompensated ACLD (dACLD) (36.4%) had significantly decreased 5Y survival rates. The combination of LSM < 15 kPa and platelets ≥ 150G/L indicated a negligible risk for decompensation (5Y 0.0%) and for mortality (5Y 0.0%). Overall, 44 (13.2%) patients died, with 18 (40.9%) deaths attributed to CSPH-related complications.

CONCLUSION

In PBC, features of CSPH may occur early and indicate an increased risk for subsequent decompensation and mortality. Hence, regular screening and on-time treatment for CSPH is crucial. Combining LSM and platelets serves as a valuable preliminary assessment, as LSM < 15 kPa and platelets ≥ 150G/L indicate an excellent long-term outcome.

Portal hypertension in primary biliary cholangitis: prevalence, natural history and histological correlates

OBJECTIVES

The histopathological mechanisms underlying portal hypertension in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are poorly understood, as is its natural history. We have therefore determined the prevalence, severity and progression of portal hypertension in PBC and investigated whether its presence is related to specific histological lesions.

METHODS

Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) was measured in 86 patients, with 186 assessments over up to 7 years of follow-up and the results correlated with a semiquantitative grading of 8 histological features and nodular regenerative hyperplasia (NRH).

RESULTS

Portal hypertension (HVPG >5 mmHg) was present in 88% of all assessments (86% at baseline), and in 45% of patients at baseline was >12 mmHg (high-risk portal hypertension). The rise in portal pressure occurs early in the disease, since 45% of patients with normal serum bilirubin had a raised HVPG, as did 72% of patients with early (Ludwig stages 1 and 2) disease. After baseline, there was a small increase in HVPG over the next 5 years in most patients. In patients with precirrhotic PBC, 82% had portal hypertension and in 34% this was >12 mmHg. Portal pressure correlated significantly with a semiquantitative grading of cholestasis, interface hepatitis and portal tract and sinusoidal fibrosis. NRH was present in only 20% of wedge biopsies.

CONCLUSIONS

Portal hypertension commences in the early stages of PBC, long preceding both rises in serum bilirubin and the development of cirrhosis. Around 34% of precirrhotic PBC patients have 'high-risk' portal hypertension, which is associated with lesions in the portal tracts and sinusoids rather than with NRH.

Two-dimensional shear wave elastography for screening varices in Asian patients with primary biliary cholangitis

Objectives: The presence of varices affects the survival of patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim of this study is to assess the criteria based on liver stiffness (LS) measured by two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) and platelet count (PLT), and recently published noninvasive models for triaging PBC patients.Methods: 231 patients with PBC who underwent EGD and 2D-SWE examination were enrolled. Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were used to assess the performance of 2D-SWE for predicting all-size varices and high-risk varices. All-size varices and high-risk varices miss rate < 10% and <5%, respectively, were acceptable for screening varices.Results: The AUROCs of LS for predicting all-size varices and high-risk varices were 0.87 (95%CI: 0.82-0.91) and 0.84 (95%CI: 0.74-0.86), respectively. LS <25 kPa and PLT >110 × 10⁹/L spared 46.3% EGD screening, with 3.7% high-risk varices miss rate and 8.4% all-size varices miss rate. One hundred and sixteen (50.2%) patients met the Newcastle varices in PBC score (cutoff, 0.5), with 4.3% high-risk varices miss rate and 11.2% all-size varices miss rate.Conclusion: The criteria based on LS and PLT are useful for triaging PBC patients. LS <25 kPa and PLT >110 × 10⁹/L could be the optimal criteria for screening varices.

Development and Validation of an Easy-to-Use Risk Scoring System for Screening High-Risk Varices in Patients with HBV-Related Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

A large portion of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) do not have varices or only have low risk varices.

AIMS

To create and validate an easy-to-use risk scoring system to identify high-risk varices (HRV) and spare esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cACLD.

METHODS

In total, 334 patients with HBV-related cACLD who had undergone routine laboratory tests and ultrasound examination were enrolled. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine which variables were the independent risk factors for the presence of HRV, so as to establish the scoring system for screening HRV. The criteria were tested in a training cohort with 221 patients and validated in a validation cohort with 113 patients.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, the prevalence of HRV was 29.5%. Albumin (ALB) [OR 0.83; 95% confidence index (CI) 0.77-0.90; P < 0.0001], platelet count (PLT) (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.96-0.99; P < 0.0001) and portal vein diameter (OR 1.40; 95% CI 1.15-1.71; P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for the presence of HRV. The negative predictive value was > 95%, when albumin-platelet-portal vein diameter varices scores (APP score) were < 0.24. One hundred twenty-five of 221 (56.6%) patients met an APP score < 0.24 with a 4.8% HRV miss rate. In the validation cohort, 59 of 113 (51.3%) patients met the APP score < 0.24 with a 1.7% HRV miss rate.

CONCLUSIONS

APP score is a potential model for safely screening HRV and sparing EGDs in patients with HBV-related cACLD.

Evaluation and Management of Esophageal and Gastric Varices in Patients with Cirrhosis

Variceal bleeding is a complication of cirrhosis that defines decompensation. Important advances in the management of gastroesophageal varices have led to a significant decrease in the morbidity and mortality. Achieving these results in clinical practice is contingent on clinicians applying the best practice strategies and appropriate referral to a tertiary center. Several quality metrics were developed by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases. This article aims to update outpatient and inpatient strategies to include the latest recommendations on variceal screening and surveillance, primary and secondary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding, and therapy for patients with acute variceal bleeding.

Factors Associated With Progression and Outcomes of Early Stage Primary Biliary Cholangitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients usually receive a diagnosis of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) at an early stage, based on biochemical analyses. We investigated the proportion of patients who progress to moderate or advanced PBC and factors associated with progression and patient survival.

METHODS

We obtained data from 1615 patients (mean age, 55.4 y) with early stage PBC (based on their normal levels of albumin and bilirubin), collected at the time of initial evaluation or treatment, from the Global PBC Study Group database (comprising patients at 19 liver centers in North American and European countries). We collected data from health care evaluations on progression to moderate PBC (abnormal level of bilirubin or albumin) or advanced-stage PBC (abnormal level of both). The median follow-up time was 7.9 years. The composite end point was decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or death.

RESULTS

Of the 1615 patients identified with early stage PBC, 904 developed moderate PBC and 201 developed advanced disease over the study period. The proportions of patients who transitioned to moderate PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 12.9%, 30.2%, and 45.8%. The proportions of these patients who then transitioned to advanced PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years later were 3.4%, 12.5%, and 16.0%, respectively. During the follow-up period, 236 patients had a clinical event. The proportions of patients with moderate PBC and event-free survival were 97.9%, 95.1%, and 91.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, and the proportions of patients with advanced PBC and event-free survival were 90.6%, 71.2%, and 58.3% at 1, 3, and 5 years later, respectively. Variables associated with transition from early to moderate PBC included baseline levels of bilirubin, albumin, and alkaline phosphatase; aspartate to alanine aminotransferase ratio; platelet count; and treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid. Transitions from early to moderate PBC and from moderate to advanced PBC were associated with higher probabilities of a clinical event (time-dependent hazard ratios, 3.0; 95% CI, 2.0-4.5; and 4.6; 95% CI, 3.5-6.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately half of patients with early stage PBC progress to a more severe stage within 5 years. Progression is associated with an increased risk of a clinical event, so surveillance is important for patients with early stage PBC.

Effects of Age and Sex of Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid and Transplant-free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) predominantly affects middle-aged women; there are few data on disease phenotypes and outcomes of PBC in men and younger patients. We investigated whether differences in sex and/or age at the start of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment are associated with response to therapy, based on biochemical markers, or differences in transplant-free survival.

METHODS

We performed a longitudinal retrospective study of 4355 adults in the Global PBC Study cohort, collected from 17 centers across Europe and North America. Patients received a diagnosis of PBC from 1961 through 2014. We evaluated the effects of sex and age on response to UDCA treatment (based on GLOBE score) and transplant-free survival using logistic regression and Cox regression analyses, respectively.

RESULTS

Male patients were older at the start of treatment (58.3±12.1 years vs 54.3±11.6 years for women; P<.0001) and had higher levels of bilirubin and lower circulating platelet counts (P<.0001). Younger patients (45 years or younger) had increased serum levels of transaminases than older patients (older than 45 years). Patients older than 45 years at time of treatment initiation had increased odds of a biochemical response to UDCA therapy, based on GLOBE score, compared to younger patients. The greatest odds of response to UDCA were observed in patients older than 65 years (odds ratio compared to younger patients 45 years or younger, 5.48; 95% CI, 3.92-7.67; P<.0001). Risk of liver transplant or death (compared to a general population matched for age, sex, and birth year) decreased significantly with advancing age: hazard ratio for patients 35 years or younger, 14.59 (95% CI, 9.66-22.02) vs hazard ratio for patients older than 65 years, 1.39 (95% CI, 1.23-1.57) (P<.0001). On multivariable analysis, sex was not independently associated with response or transplant-free survival.

CONCLUSION

In longitudinal analysis of 4355 adults in the Global PBC Study, we associated patient age, but not sex, with response to UDCA treatment and transplant-free survival. Younger age at time of treatment initiation is associated with increased risk of treatment failure, liver transplant, and death.

Validation of Risk Scoring Systems in Ursodeoxycholic Acid-Treated Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis

INTRODUCTION

Risk stratification based on biochemical variables is a useful tool for monitoring ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)-treated patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several UDCA response criteria and scoring systems have been proposed for risk prediction in PBC, but these have not been validated in large external cohorts.

METHODS

We performed a study on data of 1746 UDCA-treated patients with PBC from 25 centers in Europe, United States, and Canada. The prognostic performance of the risk scoring systems (GLOBE and UK-PBC) and the UDCA response criteria (Barcelona, Paris I, Paris II, Rotterdam, and Toronto) were evaluated. We regarded cirrhosis-related complications (ascites, variceal bleeding, and/or hepatic encephalopathy) as clinical end points.

RESULTS

A total of 171 patients reached a clinical end point during a median 7 years (range 1-16 years) of follow-up. The 5-, 10- and 15-year adverse outcome-free survivals were 95%, 85%, and 77%. The GLOBE and UK-PBC scores predicted cirrhosis-related complications better than the UDCA response criteria. The hazard ratio (HR) for a 1 standard deviation increase was HR 5.05 (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.43-5.74, P < 0.001) for the GLOBE score and HR 3.39 (95% CI: 3.10-3.72, P < 0.001) for the UK-PBC score. Overall, the GLOBE and UK-PBC risk scores showed similar and excellent prognostic performance (C-statistic, 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91%-95% vs 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91%-0.96%).

DISCUSSION

In our international, multicenter PBC cohort, the GLOBE and UK-PBC risk scoring systems were good predictors of future cirrhosis-related complications.

Non-Invasive Prediction of High-Risk Varices in Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

BACKGROUND

Baveno-VI guidelines recommend that patients with compensated cirrhosis with liver stiffness by transient elastography (LSM-TE) <20 kPa and platelets >150,000/mm(3) do not need an esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) to screen for varices, since the risk of having varices needing treatment (VNT) is <5%. It remains uncertain if this tool can be used in patients with cholestatic liver diseases (ChLDs): primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). These patients may have a pre-sinusoidal component of portal hypertension that could affect the performance of this rule. In this study we evaluated the performance of Baveno-VI, expanded Baveno-VI (LSM-TE <25 kPa and platelets >110,000/mm(3)), and other criteria in predicting the absence of VNT.

METHODS

This was a multicenter cross-sectional study in four referral hospitals. We retrospectively analyzed data from 227 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) due to PBC (n = 147) and PSC (n = 80) that had paired EGD and LSM-TE. We calculated false negative rate (FNR) and number of saved endoscopies for each prediction rule.

RESULTS

Prevalence of VNT was 13%. Baveno-VI criteria had a 0% FNR in PBC and PSC, saving 39 and 30% of EGDs, respectively. In PBC the other LSM-TE-based criteria resulted in FNRs >5%. In PSC the expanded Baveno criteria had an adequate performance. In both conditions LSM-TE-independent criteria resulted in an acceptable FNR but saved less EGDs.

CONCLUSIONS

Baveno-VI criteria can be applied in patients with cACLD due to ChLDs, which would result in saving 30-40% of EGDs. Expanded criteria in PBC would lead to FNRs >5%.

The British Society of Gastroenterology/UK-PBC primary biliary cholangitis treatment and management guidelines

Primary biliary cholangitis (formerly known as primary biliary cirrhosis, PBC) is an autoimmune liver disease in which a cycle of immune mediated biliary epithelial cell injury, cholestasis and progressive fibrosis can culminate over time in an end-stage biliary cirrhosis. Both genetic and environmental influences are presumed relevant to disease initiation. PBC is most prevalent in women and those over the age of 50, but a spectrum of disease is recognised in adult patients globally; male sex, younger age at onset (<45) and advanced disease at presentation are baseline predictors of poorer outcome. As the disease is increasingly diagnosed through the combination of cholestatic serum liver tests and the presence of antimitochondrial antibodies, most presenting patients are not cirrhotic and the term cholangitis is more accurate. Disease course is frequently accompanied by symptoms that can be burdensome for patients, and management of patients with PBC must address, in a life-long manner, both disease progression and symptom burden. Licensed therapies include ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) and obeticholic acid (OCA), alongside experimental new and re-purposed agents. Disease management focuses on initiation of UDCA for all patients and risk stratification based on baseline and on-treatment factors, including in particular the response to treatment. Those intolerant of treatment with UDCA or those with high-risk disease as evidenced by UDCA treatment failure (frequently reflected in trial and clinical practice as an alkaline phosphatase >1.67 × upper limit of normal and/or elevated bilirubin) should be considered for second-line therapy, of which OCA is the only currently licensed National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommended agent. Follow-up of patients is life-long and must address treatment of the disease and management of associated symptoms.

Patterns of disease progression and incidence of complications in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC)

Clinical outcome for patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is dictated by development of cirrhosis, portal hypertension and its associated complications; including for some, a predisposition toward hepatocellular carcinoma. However rates of clinical progression vary, and accurately identifying disease course is of critical importance to patients, clinicians, as well as industry, who are committed to developing new effective and life-prolonging therapy as well as treating symptoms that appear disproportionate to underlying disease severity. Patients seek reassurance and guidance as to their own prognosis, and clinicians wish to confidently recognise those at highest risk of poor outcomes as equally as they strive to reassure individuals with a more favourable disease trajectory. International registries have facilitated a much greater knowledge of disease incidence and heterogeneity of presenting phenotypes. In so doing they highlight the opportunity to provide a more individualized estimate of the clinical course that patients experience, and have led to a renewed approach to risk stratification; both in terms of 'hard outcomes' and also disease-associated complications in PBC specifically.

Major Hepatic Complications in Ursodeoxycholic Acid-Treated Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Risk Factors and Time Trends in Incidence and Outcome

OBJECTIVES

In this era of near universal ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), progression to cirrhosis still occurs in an important proportion of patients. The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of cirrhosis-associated complications in patients with PBC and assess risk factors and impact on survival.

METHODS

Cohorts of UDCA-treated patients from 16 European and North-American liver centers were included. We used Cox proportional hazards assumptions and Kaplan-Meier estimates.

RESULTS

During 8.1 years' median follow-up, 278 of 3,224 patients developed ascites, variceal bleeding, and/or encephalopathy (incidence rate of 9.7 cases/1,000 patient years). The overall cumulative incidence was 9.1% after 10 years of follow-up, but decreased over time to 5.8% after the year 2000. Earlier calendar year of diagnosis (P<0.001), high aspartate aminotransferase to platelets ratio index (APRI; P<0.001) and biochemical non-response (P<0.001) were independently associated with future complications. Patients with both biochemical non-response and an APRI >0.54 after 12 months of UDCA had a 10-year complication rate of 37.4%, as compared to 3.2% in biochemical responders with an APRI ≤0.54. The 10-year transplantation-free survival after a complication was 9% (time-dependent hazard ratio 21.5; 20.1-22.8). Prognosis after variceal bleeding has improved over time.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large international cohort, up to 15% of UDCA-treated PBC patients developed major non-neoplastic, cirrhosis-associated hepatic complications within 15 years, but cumulative incidence has decreased over time. Biochemical non-response to UDCA and APRI were independent risk factors for these complications. Subsequent long-term outcome after complications is generally poor, but has improved over the past decades.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development by aminotransferase to platelet ratio index in primary biliary cholangitis

AIM

To investigate the usefulness of aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC).

METHODS

We identified PBC patients between 2000 and 2015 by searching the electronic medical database of a tertiary center. The hazard ratio (HR) of HCC with different risk factors was determined by Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

One hundred and forty-four PBC patients were recruited. Patients were diagnosed at a median age of 57.8 years [interquartile range (IQR): 48.7-71.5 years), and 41 (28.5%) patients had cirrhosis at baseline. The median follow-up duration was 6.9 years (range: 1.0-26.3 years). Twelve patients developed HCC, with an incidence rate of 10.6 cases per 1000 patient-years. The overall 5-, 10- and 15-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 2.3% 95%CI: 0%-4.8%), 8.4% (95%CI: 1.8%-14.5%) and 21.6% (6.8%-34.1%), respectively. Older age (HR = 1.07), cirrhosis (HR = 4.38) and APRI at 1 year after treatment (APRI-r1) > 0.54 (HR = 3.94) were independent factors for HCC development. APRI-r1, when combined with treatment response, further stratified HCC risk (log rank P < 0.05). The area under receiver operating curve of APRI-r1 in predicting HCC was 0.77 (95%CI: 0.64-0.88).

CONCLUSION

APRI-r1 can be used to predict the development of HCC in PBC patients. Combination of APRI-r1 with treatment response can further stratify the HCC risk.

Geoepidemiology and changing mortality in primary biliary cholangitis

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), formerly called primary biliary cirrhosis, is a chronic cholestatic disease characterized by an autoimmune-mediated destruction of small and medium-sized intrahepatic bile ducts. Originally PBC was considered to be rare and almost invariably fatal, mainly because the diagnosis was made in patients presenting with advanced symptomatic disease (jaundice and decompensated cirrhosis). However, the development of a reproducible indirect immunofluorescence assay for antimitochondrial antibody made it possible to diagnose the disease at an earlier stage, and introduction of ursodeoxycholic acid therapy as the first-line therapy for PBC drastically changed PBC-related mortality. At present, patients with an early histological stage have survival rates similar to those of an age- and sex-matched control population. Although 30% of patients treated with ursodeoxycholic acid may exhibit incomplete responses, obeticholic acid and drugs currently in development are expected to be effective for these patients and improve outcomes. Meanwhile, more etiology and immunopathology studies using new technologies and novel animal models are needed to dissect variances of clinical course, treatment response, and outcome in each patient with PBC. Precision medicine that is individualized for each patient on the basis of the cause identified is eagerly awaited.

Toward precision medicine in primary biliary cholangitis

Primary biliary cholangitis is a chronic, cholestatic liver disease characterized by a heterogeneous presentation, symptomatology, disease progression and response to therapy. In contrast, clinical management and treatment of PBC is homogeneous with a 'one size fits all' approach. The evolving research landscape, with the emergence of the -omics field and the availability of large patient cohorts are creating a unique opportunity of translational epidemiology. Furthermore, several novel disease and symptom-modifying agents for PBC are currently in development. The time is therefore ripe for precision medicine in PBC. In this manuscript we describe the concept of precision medicine; review current approaches to risk-stratification in PBC, and speculate how precision medicine in PBC might develop in the near future.

Stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in primary biliary cirrhosis: a multicentre international study

OBJECTIVE

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an infrequent yet critical event in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC); however, predictive tools remain ill-defined. Our objective was to identify candidate risk factors for HCC development in patients with PBC.

DESIGN

Risk factor analysis was performed in over 15 centres from North America and Europe spanning >40 years observation period using Cox proportional hazards assumptions, logistic regression, and Kaplan-Meier estimates.

RESULTS

Of 4565 patients with PBC 123 developed HCC, yielding an incidence rate (IR) of 3.4 cases/1000 patient-years. HCC was significantly more common in men (p<0.0001), and on univariate analysis factors at PBC diagnosis associated with future HCC development were male sex (unadjusted HR 2.91, p<0.0001), elevated serum aspartate transaminase (HR 1.24, p<0.0001), advanced disease (HR 2.72, p=0.022), thrombocytopenia (HR 1.65, p<0.0001), and hepatic decompensation (HR 9.89, p<0.0001). As such, non-treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid itself was not associated with cancer development; however, 12-month stratification by biochemical non-response (Paris-I criteria) associated significantly with future risk of HCC (HR 4.52, p<0.0001; IR 6.6 vs 1.4, p<0.0001). Non-response predicted future risk in patients with early stage disease (IR 4.7 vs 1.2, p=0.005), advanced disease (HR 2.79, p=0.02; IR 11.2 vs 4.4, p=0.033), and when restricting the analysis to only male patients (HR 4.44, p<0.001; IR 18.2 vs 5.4, p<0.001). On multivariable analysis biochemical non-response remained the most significant factor predictive of future HCC risk (adjusted HR 3.44, p<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

This uniquely powered, internationally representative cohort robustly demonstrates that 12-month biochemical non-response is associated with increased future risk of developing HCC in PBC. Such risk stratification is relevant to patient care and development of new therapies.

Risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases: Opportunities for clinicians and trialists

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are infrequent autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases, that disproportionate to their incidence and prevalence, remain very important causes of morbidity and mortality for patients with liver disease. Mechanistic insights spanning genetic risks and biological pathways to liver injury and fibrosis have led to a renewed interest in developing therapies beyond ursodeoxycholic acid that are aimed at both slowing disease course and improving quality of life. International cohort studies have facilitated a much greater understanding of disease heterogeneity, and in so doing highlight the opportunity to provide patients with a more individualized assessment of their risk of progressive liver disease, based on clinical, laboratory, or imaging findings. This has led to a new approach to patient care that focuses on risk stratification (both high and low risk); and furthermore allows such stratification tools to help identify patient subgroups at greatest potential benefit from inclusion in clinical trials. In this article, we review the applicability and validity of risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver disease, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of current and emergent approaches. (Hepatology 2016;63:644-659).

Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict Outcomes of Patients With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis Receiving Ursodeoxycholic Acid Therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Approaches to risk stratification for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) are limited, single-center based, and often dichotomous. We aimed to develop and validate a better model for determining prognoses of patients with PBC.

METHODS

We performed an international, multicenter meta-analysis of 4119 patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid at liver centers in 8 European and North American countries. Patients were randomly assigned to derivation (n = 2488 [60%]) and validation cohorts (n = 1631 [40%]). A risk score (GLOBE score) to predict transplantation-free survival was developed and validated with univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses using clinical and biochemical variables obtained after 1 year of ursodeoxycholic acid therapy. Risk score outcomes were compared with the survival of age-, sex-, and calendar time-matched members of the general population. The prognostic ability of the GLOBE score was evaluated alongside those of the Barcelona, Paris-1, Rotterdam, Toronto, and Paris-2 criteria.

RESULTS

Age (hazard ratio = 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.06; P < .0001); levels of bilirubin (hazard ratio = 2.56; 95% CI: 2.22-2.95; P < .0001), albumin (hazard ratio = 0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.24; P < .0001), and alkaline phosphatase (hazard ratio = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.18-1.67; P = .0002); and platelet count (hazard ratio/10 units decrease = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96-0.99; P < .0001) were all independently associated with death or liver transplantation (C-statistic derivation, 0.81; 95% CI: 0.79-0.83, and validation cohort, 0.82; 95% CI: 0.79-0.84). Patients with risk scores >0.30 had significantly shorter times of transplant-free survival than matched healthy individuals (P < .0001). The GLOBE score identified patients who would survive for 5 years and 10 years (responders) with positive predictive values of 98% and 88%, respectively. Up to 22% and 21% of events and nonevents, respectively, 10 years after initiation of treatment were correctly reclassified in comparison with earlier proposed criteria. In subgroups of patients aged <45, 45-52, 52-58, 58-66, and ≥66 years, age-specific GLOBE-score thresholds beyond which survival significantly deviated from matched healthy individuals were -0.52, 0.01, 0.60, 1.01 and 1.69, respectively. Transplant-free survival could still be accurately calculated by the GLOBE score with laboratory values collected at 2-5 years after treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated scoring system (the GLOBE score) to predict transplant-free survival of ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC. This score might be used to select strategies for treatment and care.

Brazilian society of hepatology recommendations for the diagnosis and management of autoimmune diseases of the liver

ABSTRACT In order to draw evidence-based recommendations concerning the management of autoimmune diseases of the liver, the Brazilian Society of Hepatology has sponsored a single-topic meeting in October 18th, 2014 at São Paulo. An organizing committee comprised of seven investigators was previously elected by the Governing Board to organize the scientific agenda as well as to select twenty panelists to make a systematic review of the literature and to present topics related to the diagnosis and treatment of autoimmune hepatitis, primary sclerosing cholangitis, primary biliary cirrhosis and their overlap syndromes. After the meeting, all panelists gathered together for the discussion of the topics and the elaboration of those recommendations. The text was subsequently submitted for suggestions and approval of all members of the Brazilian Society of Hepatology through its homepage. The present paper is the final version of the reviewed manuscript organized in topics, followed by the recommendations of the Brazilian Society of Hepatology.

Obeticholic acid for the treatment of primary biliary cirrhosis

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is characterized by progressive nonsuppurative destruction of small bile ducts, resulting in intrahepatic cholestasis, fibrosis and ultimately end-stage liver disease. Timely intervention with ursodeoxycholic acid is associated with excellent survival, although approximately one-third of all patients fail to achieve biochemical response, signifying a critical need for additional therapeutic strategies. Obeticholic acid (OCA) is a potent ligand of the nuclear hormone receptor farnesoid X receptor (FXR). Activation of FXR inhibits bile acid synthesis and protects against toxic accumulation in models of cholestasis and facilitates hepatic regeneration in preclinical studies. Data from recent Phase II and III controlled trials suggest a therapeutic impact of OCA in PBC biochemical nonresponders, as evidenced by change in proven laboratory surrogates of long-term outcome. Dose-dependent pruritus is a common adverse effect, but may be overcome through dose-titration. Longer term studies are needed with focus on safety and long-term clinical efficacy.

Personalized management of cirrhosis by non-invasive tests of liver fibrosis

Owing to the high prevalence of various chronic liver diseases, cirrhosis is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. In recent years, the development of non-invasive tests of fibrosis allows accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis and reduces the need for liver biopsy. In this review, we discuss the application of these non-invasive tests beyond the diagnosis of cirrhosis. In particular, their role in the selection of patients for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance and varices screening is highlighted.

Optimising risk stratification in primary biliary cirrhosis: AST/platelet ratio index predicts outcome independent of ursodeoxycholic acid response

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Outcomes in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) can be predicted by biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). Such stratification inadequately captures cirrhosis/portal hypertension, recognised factors associated with adverse events.

METHODS

We evaluated a cohort of PBC patients (n=386) attending the Liver Unit in Birmingham (derivation cohort), seeking to identify risk-variables associated with transplant-free survival independent of UDCA-response. A validation cohort was provided through well-characterised patients attending the Toronto Center for Liver Diseases (n=479) and Jena University Hospital (n=150).

RESULTS

On multivariate analysis, factors at diagnosis associated with liver transplant (LT)/death were patient age (HR:1.06; p<0.001), elevated bilirubin (HR:1.27; p<0.001), early-onset cirrhosis (HR:2.40; p<0.001) and baseline AST/platelet ratio index (APRI) (HR:1.95; p<0.001). At 1-year, UDCA biochemical non-response predicted poorer transplant-free survival, and additional factors (multivariate) associated with adverse outcome were age (HR:1.02; p<0.05) and 1-year APRI (HR:1.15; p<0.001). Obtaining a cut-point from our derivation cohort, APRI >0.54 at baseline was predictive of LT/death (adjusted HR: 2.40; p<0.001), and retained statistical significance when applied at 1-year (APRI-r1, adjusted HR:2.75; p<0.001) despite controlling for UDCA-response. Across both cohorts, transplant-free survival was poorer for biochemical-responders with an APRI-r1 >0.54 vs. biochemical-responders with a lower APRI-r1 (p<0.01 and p<0.001, respectively); non-responders with high APRI-r1 had the poorest outcomes (p<0.001 and p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

In PBC, elevated APRI is associated with future risk of adverse events, independently and additively of UDCA-response. This cross-centre, robustly validated observation will contribute to ongoing efforts to refine existing risk-stratification tools, as well as direct focus for new therapies in patients with PBC.

Primary biliary cirrhosis in adults

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a chronic, autoimmune, cholestatic liver disease. It is characterized by slow destruction of small intrahepatic bile ducts, impaired biliary secretion and stasis of toxic endogenous bile acids within the liver with progression to liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. It has an increasing prevalence worldwide. It occurs more commonly in women than men at a ratio of 10:1. In most cases, diagnosis relies on a positive antimitochondrial antibody in the context of chronic cholestasis, without the need for a liver biopsy. Ursodeoxycholic acid improves survival even in patients with advanced liver disease. Certain findings such as fatigue, anti-nuclear antibodies, anti-centromere antibodies and the GP210 antinuclear antibody predict a poor outcome. Up to 40% of patients do not respond satisfactorily to ursodeoxycholic acid therapy and should be considered for adjunctive therapies. Several adjunctive and newer therapies are being tested and some appear promising. We provide a review of PBC with a focus on advances in therapies that may impact the management of PBC in the near future.