Modified PAGE-B score predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Asians with chronic hepatitis B on antiviral therapy

Chronic hepatitis B baseline viral load and on-treatment liver cancer risk: A multinational cohort study of HBeAg-positive patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A single-nation study reported that pretreatment HBV viral load is associated with on-treatment risk of HCC in patients who are HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B initiating antiviral treatment. We aimed to validate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in a larger, multinational cohort.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Using a multinational cohort from Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan involving 7545 adult patients with HBeAg-positive, without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir treatment with baseline HBV viral load ≥5.00 log 10 IU/mL, HCC risk was estimated by baseline viral load. HBV viral load was analyzed as a categorical variable. During continuous antiviral treatment (median, 4.28 y), HCC developed in 200 patients (incidence rate, 0.61 per 100 person-years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a nonlinear pattern. HCC risk was lowest with the highest baseline viral load (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL; incidence rate, 0.10 per 100 person-years), but increased sharply as baseline viral load decreased. The adjusted HCC risk was 8.05 times higher (95% CI, 3.34-19.35) with baseline viral load ≥6.00 and <7.00 log 10 IU/mL (incidence rate, 1.38 per 100 person-years) compared with high (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL) baseline viral load ( p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In a multinational cohort of adult patients with HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B, baseline HBV viral load was significantly associated with HCC risk despite antiviral treatment. Patients with the highest viral load who initiated treatment had the lowest long-term risk of HCC development.

Predicting hepatocellular carcinoma: A new non-invasive model based on shear wave elastography

BACKGROUND

Integrating conventional ultrasound features with 2D shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) can potentially enhance preoperative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) predictions.

AIM

To develop a 2D-SWE-based predictive model for preoperative identification of HCC.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 884 patients who underwent liver resection and pathology evaluation from February 2021 to August 2023 was conducted at the Oriental Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital. The patients were divided into the modeling group (n = 720) and the control group (n = 164). The study included conventional ultrasound, 2D-SWE, and preoperative laboratory tests. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent predictive factors for malignant liver lesions, which were then depicted as nomograms.

RESULTS

In the modeling group analysis, maximal elasticity (Emax) of tumors and their peripheries, platelet count, cirrhosis, and blood flow were independent risk indicators for malignancies. These factors yielded an area under the curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.81) with 84% sensitivity and 61% specificity. The model demonstrated good calibration in both the construction and validation cohorts, as shown by the calibration graph and Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.683 and P = 0.658, respectively). Additionally, the mean elasticity (Emean) of the tumor periphery was identified as a risk factor for microvascular invasion (MVI) in malignant liver tumors (P = 0.003). Patients receiving antiviral treatment differed significantly in platelet count (P = 0.002), Emax of tumors (P = 0.033), Emean of tumors (P = 0.042), Emax at tumor periphery (P < 0.001), and Emean at tumor periphery (P = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

2D-SWE's hardness value serves as a valuable marker for enhancing the preoperative diagnosis of malignant liver lesions, correlating significantly with MVI and antiviral treatment efficacy.

Lack of association between early on-treatment HBeAg seroclearance and development of hepatocellular carcinoma or decompensated cirrhosis

Background & Aims

The association between hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg) seroclearance during long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) treatment and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remains unclear. Here, we aimed to investigate the association of HBeAg seroclearance during potent NA treatment with the development of HCC and decompensated cirrhosis.

Methods

Using a multicenter historical cohort including 2,392 non-cirrhotic adult patients with HBeAg-positive CHB who initiated NA treatment with tenofovir or entecavir, the risk of HCC and decompensated cirrhosis was compared between patients who achieved HBeAg seroclearance within 36 months of NA treatment (the HBeAg-loss group) and those who did not (the HBeAg-maintained group), using inverse probability of treatment weighting.

Results

Over a median of 6.6 years of NA treatment, 1,077 patients achieved HBeAg seroclearance (HBeAg loss rate = 6.0 per 100 person-years), 64 patients developed HCC (HCC incidence rate = 0.39 per 100 person-years), and 46 patients developed decompensated cirrhosis (decompensation incidence rate = 0.28 per 100 person-years). The HBeAg-loss and HBeAg-maintained groups had a similar risk of developing HCC (hazard ratio 0.89; 95% CI 0.47-1.68; p = 0.72) and decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio 0.98; 95% CI 0.48-1.81; p = 0.91). Compared with delayed HBeAg seroclearance beyond 10 years of NA treatment, the risk of HCC was comparable in those who achieved earlier HBeAg seroclearance at any time point within 10 years, regardless of baseline age and fibrotic burden.

Conclusions

Early HBeAg seroclearance during NA treatment was not associated with a reduced risk of development of HCC or decompensated cirrhosis in non-cirrhotic HBeAg-positive patients with CHB.

Impact and implications

The association between hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg) seroclearance during long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B remains unclear. Our findings indicate that early on-treatment HBeAg seroclearance within 3 years was not associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma or decompensated cirrhosis. Achieving HBeAg seroclearance may not be an appropriate surrogate endpoint for preventing the development of liver-related outcomes in non-cirrhotic patients with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues.

Prognostic significance of dynamic changes in liver stiffness measurement in patients with chronic hepatitis B and compensated advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) are promising for monitoring disease progression or regression. We assessed the prognostic significance of dynamic changes in LSM over time on liver-related events (LREs) and death in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).

METHODS

This retrospective study included 1272 patients with CHB and cACLD who underwent at least two measurements, including LSM and fibrosis score based on four factors (FIB-4). ΔLSM was defined as [(follow-up LSM - baseline LSM)/baseline LSM × 100]. We recorded LREs and all-cause mortality during a median follow-up time of 46 months. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes were calculated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Baseline FIB-4, baseline LSM, ΔFIB-4, ΔLSM, and ΔLSM/year were independently and simultaneously associated with LREs (adjusted HR, 1.04, 95% CI, 1.00-1.07; 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01-1.03; 1.06, 95% CI, 1.03-1.09; 1.96, 95% CI, 1.63-2.35, 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01-1.04, respectively). The baseline LSM combined with the ΔLSM achieved the highest Harrell's C (0.751), integrated AUC (0.776), and time-dependent AUC (0.737) for LREs. Using baseline LSM and ΔLSM, we proposed a risk stratification method to improve clinical applications. The risk proposed stratification based on LSM performed well in terms of prognosis: low risk (n = 390; reference), intermediate risk (n = 446; HR = 3.38), high risk (n = 272; HR = 5.64), and extremely high risk (n = 164; HR = 11.11).

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline and repeated noninvasive tests measurement allow risk stratification of patients with CHB and cACLD. Combining baseline and dynamic changes in the LSM improves prognostic prediction.

Clinical Utility of the aMAP Score for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the aMAP score and compare it with other risk scores for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in Thai patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We retrospectively analyzed patients with CHB between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2019. Data on demographics, clinical parameters, cirrhosis status, HCC imaging, and alpha fetoprotein surveillance were collected to calculate the aMAP score (0-100) based on age, sex, albumin-bilirubin level, and platelet count. Of the 1060 patients analyzed, 789 were eligible, of whom 51 developed HCC. The cumulative HCC incidences in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups at 3, 5, and 10 years were significantly different (log-rank, p < 0.0001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the aMAP scores for predicting HCC at 3, 5, and 10 years were 0.748, 0.777, and 0.784, respectively. Among the risk scores, the CU-HCC score had the highest AUROCs (0.823) for predicting 5-year HCC development. The aMAP score is a valuable tool for predicting HCC risk in Thai patients with CHB and can enhance surveillance strategies. However, its performance is inferior to that of the CU-HCC score, suggesting the need for new predictive tools for HCC surveillance.

Evaluation of PAGE-B Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients: Reliability, Validity, and Responsiveness

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) constitutes a major global public health issue, affecting millions of individuals. Despite the implementation of robust vaccination programs, the hepatitis B virus (HBV) significantly influences morbidity and mortality rates. CHB emerges as one of the leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), introducing a major challenge in the effective management of CHB patients. Therefore, it is of utmost clinical importance to diligently monitor individuals with CHB who are at high risk of HCC development. While various prognostic scores have been developed for surveillance and screening purposes, their accuracy in predicting HCC risk may be limited, particularly in patients under treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues. The PAGE-B model, incorporating age, gender, and platelet count, has exhibited remarkable accuracy, validity, and reliability in predicting HCC occurrence among CHB patients receiving HBV treatment. Its predictive performance stands out, whether considered independently or in comparison to alternative HCC risk scoring systems. Furthermore, the introduction of targeted adjustments to the calculation of the PAGE-B score might have the potential to further improve its predictive accuracy. This review aims to evaluate the efficacy of the PAGE-B score as a dependable tool for accurate prediction of the development of HCC in CHB patients. The evidence discussed aims to provide valuable insights for guiding recommendations on HCC surveillance within this specific population.

Interim analysis of the PARADISE study: Benefits of add-on peginterferon-α in NA-treated patients with CHB

This study aimed to investigate whether peginterferon-α (IFN) add-on nucleos(t)ide analogs(NAs) can further reduce hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) risk compared with NAs monotherapy in NA-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B(CHB). In this multi-center randomized controlled trial "PARADISE study" (NCT05671315), CHB patients with intermediate to high risk of HCC after more than 24-week NAs pretreatment were recruited, randomized to two groups at a ratio of 1:2 and followed up for 240 weeks. NAs group maintained NAs monotherapy, while IFN + NAs group received IFN add-on NAs therapy for 48 weeks, then switched to NAs monotherapy. Totally, 196 patients were included in interim analysis (NAs group 68, IFN + NAs group 128). The 96-week cumulative HCC incidence was lower in IFN + NAs group than NAs group (0% vs. 4.5%, p < 0.05). Compared with NAs group, IFN + NAs group had significantly higher rates of HBsAg loss at week 48 and 96 (22.7% vs. 0%; 16.7% vs. 0%, both p < 0.05). A new scoring system was established to predict HBsAg decline >2log10 IU/ml, HBsAg <10 IU/ml or HBsAg loss at the end of 48-week IFN treatment. The area under ROC curve was 0.914, 0.922 or 0.905 in the original cohort (n = 128) and 0.896, 0.896 or 0.864 in the external validation cohort (n = 162) for the aforementioned three outcomes, respectively. IFN add-on NAs therapy may suggest the dual benefits of reducing HCC development and facilitating HBsAg loss among NA-treated CHB patients with intermediate to high risk of HCC. The new scoring system helps to make the most of IFN treatment for a higher cost-effectiveness in healthcare.

Noninvasive diagnosis of liver cirrhosis: qualitative and quantitative imaging biomarkers

A diagnosis of cirrhosis initiates a shift in the management of chronic liver disease and affects the diagnostic workflow and treatment decision of primary liver cancer. Liver biopsy remains the gold standard for cirrhosis diagnosis, but it is invasive and susceptible to sampling bias and observer variability. Various qualitative and quantitative imaging biomarkers based on ultrasound, CT and MRI have been proposed for noninvasive diagnosis of cirrhosis. Qualitative imaging features are easy to apply but have moderate diagnostic sensitivity. Elastography techniques allow quantitative assessment of liver stiffness and are highly accurate for cirrhosis diagnosis. Ultrasound elastography are widely used in clinical practice, while MR elastography has narrower availability. Although not applicable in clinical practice yet, other quantitative imaging features, including liver surface nodularity, linear and volumetric measurement, extracellular volume fraction, liver enhancement on hepatobiliary phase, and parameters derived from diffusion-weighted imaging, can provide additional information of liver morphology, perfusion, and function, thus may increase diagnosis performance. The introduction of radiomics and deep learning has further improved diagnostic accuracy while reducing subjectivity. Several imaging features may also help to assess liver function and outcomes in patients with cirrhosis. In this review, we summarize the qualitative and quantitative imaging biomarkers for noninvasive cirrhosis diagnosis, and the assessment of liver function and outcomes, and discuss the challenges and future directions in this field.

Beneficial Effects of Traditional Chinese Medicine Fuzheng Huayu on the Occurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Compensated Chronic Hepatitis B Cirrhosis Receiving Entecavir: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

Background and Aims

The application of antifibrotic drugs to treat patients with chronic liver diseases who are receiving antiviral therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been established. Here, we aimed to assess the impact of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Fuzheng Huayu (FZHY) on the occurrence of HCC in patients with hepatitis B virus-related compensated cirrhosis receiving the antiviral drug entecavir (ETV).

Methods

A multicenter retrospective cohort study was performed. Compensated liver cirrhosis patients were divided into the ETV+FZHY group or the ETV group according to treatment. The cumulative incidence of HCC was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests. Propensity score matching was used for confounding factors. Stratified analysis and Cox regression were used to determine the effects of FZHY on the occurrence of HCC and liver function decompensation.

Results

Out of 910 chronic hepatitis B patients, 458 were in the ETV+FZHY group and 452 were in the ETV group. After propensity score matching, the 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 9.8% in the ETV+FZHY group and 21.8% in the ETV group (p<0.01). The adjusted hazard ratio for HCC was 0.216 (0.108, 0.432) when FZHY treatment was >36 months. Age, diabetes, alanine aminotransferase, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, hepatitis B e-antigen, and fibrosis 4 score were associated with the occurrence of HCC. FZHY decreased the risk of HCC in patients aged >45 years with a hepatitis B virus DNA level of ≥2,000 IU/l.

Conclusion

Adjunctive FZHY treatment reduced HCC occurrence in patients with hepatitis B virus cirrhosis who were treated with ETV, possibly due to the antifibrotic properties of FZHY.

Development of a cancer risk model and mobile health application to inform the public about cancer risks and risk factors

OBJECTIVE

To develop and evaluate a mobile health application, the Cancer Risk Calculator (CRC), aimed at improving public health literacy by providing personalized information on cancer risks and preventive measures.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The CRC was developed through a comprehensive process involving the identification of necessary content, integration of average cancer risks using data from reliable sources, creation of a novel risk model emphasizing modifiable factors, and the application's development for easy access. The application covers 38 cancer types, 18 subtypes, and approximately 790 risk factors, utilizing data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and scientific literature.

RESULTS

CRC offers users personalized risk assessments across a broad range of cancers, emphasizing modifiable risk factors to encourage preventive behaviors. It distinguishes itself by covering more cancer types and risk factors than existing tools, with preliminary user feedback indicating its utility in promoting health literacy and lifestyle changes.

DISCUSSION

The CRC application stands out as an innovative tool in health informatics, significantly enhancing public understanding of cancer risks. Its development underscores the potential of digital health technologies to bolster preventive healthcare strategies through improved health literacy.

CONCLUSION

The Cancer Risk Calculator is a pivotal development in mobile health technology, offering comprehensive and personalized insights into cancer risks and prevention. It serves as a valuable resource for public health education, facilitating informed decisions and lifestyle modifications for cancer prevention.

Treatment decisions based on HBV DNA

The most common cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide is chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection (CHB). Long-term suppression of HBV replication by antiviral treatment reduces the risk of HCC and mortality. Nonetheless, only 2.2% of CHB patients globally received the treatment in 2019. Current international CHB guidelines recommend antiviral treatment only in subsets of patients with clear evidence of liver damage as evidenced by elevation of alanine aminotransferase (ALT). This review aims to provide existing evidence that the risk of HCC is significantly associated with serum levels of HBV DNA, and the association is non-linear parabolic, in both untreated and treated CHB patients, regardless of HBeAg status or ALT levels. Therefore, the decision for the antiviral treatment should be based on serum HBV DNA levels and age, rather than ALT levels or liver biopsy, to reduce or prevent the risk of HCC in CHB patients. The potential impact and cost-effectiveness data on early antiviral treatment initiation were also collated.

CAMP-B score predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B after HBsAg seroclearance

BACKGROUND

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

AIMS

To identify risk factors and construct a predictive model for HCC development.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed patients with CHB with HBsAg seroclearance. Primary outcome was HCC development. Factors identified from a multivariate Cox model in the training cohort, consisting of 3476 patients from two Korean hospitals, were used to construct the prediction model. External validation was performed using data from 5255 patients in Hong Kong.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, HCC occurred in 102 patients during 24,019 person-years of observation (0.43%/year). Risk scores were assigned to cirrhosis (C:3), age ≥50 years (A:2), male sex (M:3) and platelet count <150,000/mm3 (P:1); all were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC in multivariate analysis The time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristic curves for 5, 10 and 15 years in the training and validation cohorts were 0.782, 0.817 and 0.825 and 0.785, 0.771 and 0.796, respectively. In the validation cohort, 85 patients developed HCC (0.24%/year). The corresponding incidence of HCC in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups were 0.07%, 0.37% and 0.90%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The CAMP-B score (cirrhosis, age ≥50 years, male sex and platelet count <150,000/mm3/L) was significantly associated with HCC development after HBsAg seroclearance. CAMP-B score can be easily implemented in real-world clinical practice and helps stratify HCC risk in patients with CHB following HBsAg seroclearance.

Development and validation of a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis are at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even after sustained virological response (SVR). Clinical recommendations impose a significant burden on patients by recommending lifelong screening for HCC every six months. The goals of this study were to develop a nomogram that accurately stratifies risk of HCC and improve the screening approach that is currently in use.

METHOD

Risk factors for HCC were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses in this prospective study. We developed and validated a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up period of 61.00 (57.00-66.00) months in the derivation cohort, 37 patients (9.61%) developed HCC. Older age (HR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14, p = 0.009), male gender (HR = 2.38, 95% CI 1.10-5.13, p = 0.027), low serum albumin levels (HR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-1.00, p = 0.037), and high liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, p = 0.001) were found to be independent predictors of HCC development. Harrell's C-index for the derivation cohort was 0.81. The nomogram's 3-, 5- and 7-years time-dependent AUROCSs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88), 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87), and 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.85), respectively (all p > 0.05). According to the nomogram, patients are categorized as having low, intermediate, or high risk. The annual incidence rates of HCC in the three groups were 0.18%, 1.29%, and 4.45%, respectively (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, male gender, low serum albumin levels, and high LSM were risk factors for HCC after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. We used these risk factors to establish a nomogram. The nomogram can identify a suitable screening plan by classifying hepatitis C patients according to their risk of HCC.

Non-linear association of baseline viral load with on-treatment hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B

OBJECTIVE

The association between baseline pretreatment serum HBV DNA levels and on-treatment hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk remains controversial in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to investigate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in CHB patients without cirrhosis.

DESIGN

Using a multicentre historical cohort study including 4693 hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative and HBeAg-positive, adult CHB patients without cirrhosis who initiated antiviral treatment, HCC risk was estimated by baseline HBV viral load as a categorical variable.

RESULTS

During a median of 7.6 years of antiviral treatment, 193 patients developed HCC (0.53 per 100 person- years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a non-linear, parabolic pattern. Patients with moderate baseline viral loads (5.00-7.99 log10 IU/mL) exhibited the highest HCC risk (HR, 2.60; p<0.001), followed by those with low viral loads (3.30-4.99 log10 IU/mL; HR, 1.66; p=0.11). Patients with high viral loads (≥8.00 log10 IU/mL) presented the lowest HCC risk. Particularly, patients with baseline HBV DNA levels 6.00-6.99 log10 IU/mL had the highest on-treatment HCC risk (HR, 3.36; p<0.001) compared with those with baseline HBV DNA levels≥8.00 log10 IU/mL. These findings were more prominent among HBeAg-positive patients, younger patients, or those with less advanced hepatic fibrosis.

CONCLUSION

Patients with moderate baseline viral load, particularly around 6 log10 IU/mL, demonstrated the highest on-treatment HCC risk, despite long-term antiviral treatment. Early initiation of antiviral treatment, tailored to viral load, should be considered to minimise HCC risk in adult CHB patients without cirrhosis.

A Liver Stiffness-Based Etiology-Independent Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores have modest accuracy, and most are specific to chronic hepatitis B infection. In this study, we developed and validated a liver stiffness-based machine learning algorithm (ML) for prediction and risk stratification of HCC in various chronic liver diseases (CLDs).

METHODS

MLs were trained for prediction of HCC in 5155 adult patients with various CLDs in Korea and further tested in 2 prospective cohorts from Hong Kong (HK) (N = 2732) and Europe (N = 2384). Model performance was assessed according to Harrell's C-index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

We developed the SMART-HCC score, a liver stiffness-based ML HCC risk score, with liver stiffness measurement ranked as the most important among 9 clinical features. The Harrell's C-index of the SMART-HCC score in HK and Europe validation cohorts were 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.92) and 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.95), respectively. The area under ROC curves of the SMART-HCC score for HCC in 5 years was ≥0.89 in both validation cohorts. The performance of SMART-HCC score was significantly better than existing HCC risk scores including aMAP score, Toronto HCC risk index, and 7 hepatitis B-related risk scores. Using dual cutoffs of 0.043 and 0.080, the annual HCC incidence was 0.09%-0.11% for low-risk group and 2.54%-4.64% for high-risk group in the HK and Europe validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The SMART-HCC score is a useful machine learning-based tool for clinicians to stratify HCC risk in patients with CLDs.

Gray zone of hepatitis B virus infection

ABSTRACT

A substantial proportion of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) do not fall into any of the defined phases and are considered to be in the "gray zone" or "indeterminate phase." Most of the current clinical practice guidelines have no recommendations for antiviral treatment for them. However, the gray zone CHB patients with significant hepatitis B virus levels (>2000 IU/mL) and persistently normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels have a significantly high risk of hepatic inflammation, fibrosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. The molecular, clinical, and economic data that we have reviewed collectively in this article provide support for simplification of treatment initiation strategies that incorporate broader treatment of adult patients with CHB in the gray zone (hepatitis B virus [HBV] DNA ≥2000 IU/mL), regardless of ALT levels.

Reduced Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Long-Term Besifovir Therapy

No information is available regarding the influence of besifovir (BSV), a new nucleotide analogue, on the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study evaluated the reduced risk of HCC in patients undergoing BSV treatment. A total of 188 patients with CHB were treated with BSV for up to 8 years. We prospectively assessed the incidence of HCC compared with the risk from prediction models. During the follow-up, 5 patients developed HCC: 1 of 139 patients with non-cirrhotic CHB, and 4 of 49 patients with liver cirrhosis. We compared the HCC incidence in non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic patients with the predicted number derived from the REACH-B (risk estimation for HCC in CHB) model and GAG-HCC (guide with age, gender, HBV DNA, core promotor mutation, and cirrhosis) model, respectively. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was 0.128 (p = 0.039) at 7 years in non-cirrhotic CHB patients, and the SIR was 0.371 (p = 0.047) at 7.5 years in cirrhotic patients, suggesting a significantly decreased HCC incidence in both groups. HCC prediction was available for BSV-treated patients using existing models. In conclusion, BSV decreased the risk of HCC in patients with CHB, and prediction models were applicable. Clinical trial registry website and trial number: ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01937806.

Usefulness of the Fibrosis-4 index and alanine aminotransferase at 1 year of nucleos(t)ide analog treatment for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients

AIM

Nucleos(t)ide analogs do not completely prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B virus infection. This study aimed to evaluate the dynamics of a non-invasive liver fibrosis marker, the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, for predicting HCC development.

METHODS

Among a total of 882 chronically hepatitis B virus infection-infected patients who were treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs, 472 patients without HCC history whose FIB-4 at baseline and 1 year of treatment was obtained were evaluated for the incidence of HCC.

RESULTS

The median FIB-4 was 2.00 at baseline and was significantly reduced to 1.58 at 1 year (P < 0.001), but the reduction was small at 2 years or later. When a receiver operating characteristic analysis of FIB-4 was performed to predict HCC within 5 years, the area under the curve of FIB-4 at 1 year was higher than that at baseline (0.676 vs. 0.599). The HCC incidence was significantly higher in patients with FIB-4 ≥1.58 than in those with FIB-4 <1.58 (14.8% vs. 3.6% at 10 years, P < 0.001). Additionally, an abnormal alanine aminotransferase (≥31 U/L) at 1 year was an independent risk for HCC. When a fibrosis and alanine aminotransferase-1 (FAL-1) score was evaluated as an applicable number of FIB-4 ≥1.58, and alanine aminotransferase ≥31 as 0, 1, and 2, the HCC risk in patients with score 2 was significantly higher than in those with score 1 or score 0 (24.1% vs. 9.8% vs. 0.7% at 10 years, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

FIB-4 ≥1.58 and alanine aminotransferase ≥31 at 1 year of nucleos(t)ide analog was an independent risk factor for HCC development, and a score using these factors stratified the risk of HCC.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in sub-Saharan African and Afro-Surinamese individuals with chronic hepatitis B living in Europe

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Sub-Saharan African (SSA) ethnicity has been associated with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among individuals with chronic hepatitis B in cross-sectional studies. However, the incidence of HCC and performance of HCC risk scores in this population are unknown.

METHODS

We conducted an international multicenter retrospective cohort study of all consecutive HBV-monoinfected individuals of SSA or Afro-Surinamese (AS) ethnicity managed at sites in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Spain. We assessed the 5- and 10-year cumulative incidences of HCC in the overall study population, among different clinically relevant subgroups and across (m)PAGE-B subgroups. Next, we explored the different risk factors for HCC.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 8 years, we analyzed 1,473 individuals of whom 34 developed HCC. The 5- and 10-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 1% and 2.4%. The 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.7% among individuals without advanced fibrosis at baseline, compared to 12.1% among individuals with advanced fibrosis (p <0.001). Higher age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.05), lower platelet count (aHR 0.98), lower albumin level (aHR 0.90) and higher HBV DNA log10 (aHR 1.21) were significantly associated with HCC development. The 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.5% among individuals with a low PAGE-B score, compared to 2.9% in the intermediate- and 15.9% in the high-risk groups (p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this unique international multicenter cohort of SSA and AS individuals with chronic hepatitis B, we observed 5- and 10-year cumulative HCC risks of 1% and 2.4%, respectively. The risk of HCC was negligible for individuals without advanced fibrosis at baseline, and among individuals with low baseline (m)PAGE-B scores. These findings can be used to guide HCC surveillance strategies.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Sub-Saharan African ethnicity has been associated with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among individuals with chronic hepatitis B. In this international multicenter cohort study of sub-Saharan African and Afro-Surinamese individuals living with chronic hepatitis B in Europe, we observed 5- and 10-year cumulative incidences of hepatocellular carcinoma of 1% and 2.4%, respectively. The risk was negligible among individuals without advanced fibrosis and a low baseline (m)PAGE-B score. These findings can be used to guide HCC surveillance strategies in this population.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Korean Patients after Hepatitis C Cure with Direct-Acting Antivirals

Background/Aims

With the wide application of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus infection, the number of patients achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR) will continue to increase. However, no consensus has been achieved on exempting SVR-achieving patients from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance.

Methods

Between 2013 and 2021, 873 Korean patients who achieved SVR following DAA treatment were analyzed. We evaluated the predictive performance of seven noninvasive scores (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, Toronto HCC risk index, fibrosis-4, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, albumin-bilirubin, and age male albumin-bilirubin platelet [aMAP]) at baseline and after SVR.

Results

The mean age of the 873 patients (39.3% males) was 59.1 years, and 224 patients (25.7%) had cirrhosis. During 3,542 person-years of follow-up, 44 patients developed HCC, with an annual incidence of 1.24/100 person-years. Male sex (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.21), cirrhosis (AHR, 7.93), and older age (AHR, 1.05) were associated with a significantly higher HCC risk in multivariate analysis. The performance of all scores at the time of SVR were numerically better than those at baseline as determined by the integrated area under the curve. Time-dependent area under the curves for predicting the 3-, 5-, and 7-year risk of HCC after SVR were higher in mPAGE-B (0.778, 0.746, and 0.812, respectively) and aMAP (0.776, 0.747, and 0.790, respectively) systems than others. No patients predicted as low-risk by the aMAP or mPAGE-B systems developed HCC.

Conclusions

aMAP and mPAGE-B scores demonstrated the highest predictive performance for de novo HCC in DAA-treated, SVR-achieving patients. Hence, these two systems may be used to identify low-risk patients that can be exempted from HCC surveillance.

A prediction nomogram for hepatitis B virus-associated hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to develop and validate a new nomogram for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving antiviral therapy from real-world data.

METHODS

The nomogram was established based on a real-world retrospective study of 764 patients with HBV from October 2008 to July 2020. A predictive model for the incidence of HCC was developed by multivariable Cox regression, and a nomogram was constructed. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were assessed by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Risk group stratification was performed to assess the predictive capacity of the nomogram. The nomogram was compared to three current commonly used predictive models.

RESULTS

A total of 764 patients with HBV were recruited for this study. Age, family history of HCC, alcohol consumption, and Aspartate aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) were all independent risk predictors of HCC in CHB patients. The constructed nomogram had good discrimination with a C-index of 0.811. The calibration curve and DCA also proved the reliability and accuracy of the nomogram. Three risk groups (low, moderate, and high) with significantly different prognoses were identified (p < 0.001). The model's performance was significantly better than that of other risk models.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram was superior in predicting HCC risk among CHB patients who received antiviral treatment. The model can be utilized in clinical practice to aid decision-making on the strategy of long-term HCC surveillance, especially for moderate- and high-risk patients.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores from Modeling to Real Clinical Practice in Areas Highly Endemic for Hepatitis B Infection

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the majority of primary liver cancers and represents a global health challenge. Liver cancer ranks third in cancer-related mortality with 830,000 deaths and sixth in incidence with 906,000 new cases annually worldwide. HCC most commonly occurs in patients with underlying liver disease, especially chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in highly endemic areas. Predicting HCC risk based on scoring models for patients with chronic liver disease is a simple, effective strategy for identifying and stratifying patients to improve the early diagnosis rate and prognosis of HCC. We examined 23 HCC risk scores published worldwide in CHB patients with (n=10) or without (n=13) antiviral treatment. We also described the characteristics of the risk score's predictive performance and application status. In the future, higher predictive accuracy could be achieved by combining novel technologies and machine learning algorithms to develop and update HCC risk score models and integrated early warning and diagnosis systems for HCC in hospitals and communities.

Five-year on-treatment variables-based PPACS model predicts subsequent hepatocellular carcinoma in entecavir/tenofovir-treated patients

Considering the lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving long-term potent antiviral therapy, models predicting HCC after 5 years of therapy are needed. We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study to construct and validate a model predicting HCC after 5 years of entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir (TFV) therapy for CHB. The endpoint was HCC after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy. Information on age, sex, liver cirrhosis (assessed by diagnosis code and confirmed by clinical findings) and type of antiviral agent was obtained at baseline (initiation of ETV/TFV). Laboratory values were collected at baseline and 5 years. Risk factors for HCC were identified in the training set and the final prediction model was validated using the test set. Among 7542 patients, 345 (4.6%) developed HCC after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy. HCC risk after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy was increased by 4-fold in patients with liver cirrhosis than in those without cirrhosis at baseline. Furthermore, Platelet counts and Prothrombin time at 5 years, Age at baseline and Sex were associated with risk of HCC and were incorporated into a prediction model, PPACS. PPACS showed a good performance with a time-dependent area under the curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.85) at 8-year of ETV/TFV therapy, a Brier score of 0.031 and an integrated Brier score of 0.006 in the test set. In conclusion, the PPACS model provides a reliable assessment of HCC risk after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy (https://ppacs.shinyapps.io/shiny_app_up/).

Age-specific and sex-specific risks for HCC in African-born persons with chronic hepatitis B without cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The international recommendations of HCC surveillance for African-born persons with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) without cirrhosis are divergent, probably due to scarce data on incidence rate (IR) for HCC.

METHODS

We assembled a cohort with prospectively collected data of Swedish residents of African origin with diagnosed CHB without cirrhosis at baseline from 1990 to 2015. Data from nationwide registers were used to calculate the sex-specific IR and IR ratio (incidence rate ratios) in relation to age, comorbidities, and birth region, using a generalized linear model with a log-link function and Poisson distribution.

RESULTS

Among 3865 African-born persons with CHB without cirrhosis at baseline, 31 (0.8%; 77.4% men) developed HCC during a median of 11.1 years of follow-up, with poor survival after HCC diagnosis. The mean age at HCC diagnosis was 46.8 (SD±14.7; range 23-79) in men. HCC IR exceeded the recommended surveillance threshold of 0.2%/year at ages 54 and 59 years in men and women, respectively, and at ages 20-40 years if HCV or HDV co-infection was present. African-born men with CHB had an incidence rate ratios of 10.6 (95% CI 4.4-31.5) for HCC compared to matched African-born peers without CHB, and an incidence rate ratios of 35.3 (95% CI 16.0-88.7) compared to a matched general population.

CONCLUSIONS

African-born men with CHB without cirrhosis reached an IR of 0.2%/year between 50 and 60 years, and at younger ages if HCV or HDV co-infection was present. Our findings need further confirmation, and new cost-effectiveness analyses specific for young populations are needed, to provide personalized and cost-effective HCC surveillance.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance - utilization, barriers and the impact of changing aetiology

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Surveillance for HCC is critical for early detection and treatment, but fewer than one-quarter of individuals at risk of HCC undergo surveillance. Multiple failures across the screening process contribute to the underutilization of surveillance, including limited disease awareness among patients and health-care providers, knowledge gaps, and difficulty recognizing patients who are at risk. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-associated liver disease are the fastest-rising causes of HCC-related death worldwide and are associated with unique barriers to surveillance. In particular, more than one-third of patients with HCC related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease do not have cirrhosis and therefore lack a routine indication for HCC surveillance on the basis of current practice guidelines. Semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with measurement of α-fetoprotein levels is recommended for HCC surveillance, but the sensitivity of this approach for early HCC is limited, especially for patients with cirrhosis or obesity. In this Review, we discuss the current status of HCC surveillance and the remaining challenges, including the changing aetiology of liver disease. We also discuss strategies to improve the utilization and quality of surveillance for HCC.

Prediction model of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in patients receiving antiviral therapy

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, which ultimately leads to liver cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a significant disease burden worldwide. Despite the use of antiviral therapy (AVT) using oral nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) with high genetic barriers, the risk of HCC development cannot be completely eliminated. Therefore, bi-annual surveillance of HCC using abdominal ultrasonography with or without tumor markers is recommended for at-risk populations. For a more precise assessment of future HCC risk at the individual level, many HCC prediction models have been proposed in the era of potent AVT with promising results. It allows prognostication according to the risk of HCC development, for example, low-vs. intermediate-vs. high-risk groups. Most of these models have the advantage of high negative predictive values for HCC development, allowing exemption from biannual HCC screening. Recently, non-invasive surrogate markers for liver fibrosis, such as vibration-controlled transient elastography, have been introduced as integral components of the equations, providing better predictive performance in general. Furthermore, beyond the conventional statistical methods that primarily depend on multi-variable Cox regression analyses based on the previous literature, newer techniques using artificial intelligence have also been applied in the design of HCC prediction models. Here, we aimed to review the HCC risk prediction models that were developed in the era of potent AVT and validated among independent cohorts to address the clinical unmet needs, as well as comment on future direction to establish the individual HCC risk more precisely.

Individual surveillance by competing risk model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in all-cause cirrhosis

PURPOSE

It was of great significance to identify someone with a high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and make a diagnosis as early as possible. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a new, objective, and accurate prediction model, and convert it into a nomogram to make a personalized prediction of cancer occurrence in cirrhotic patients with different etiologies.

METHODS

The present study included 938 patients with cirrhosis from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2012. Patients were prospectively followed-up until January 1, 2018. We used a competing risk model and the Fine-Gray test to develop and validate the prediction model and to plot a nomogram based on the model established.

RESULTS

At the end of follow-up, 202 (21.5%) patients developed HCC, with a 5-year incidence of 19.0% (corrected for competing risk model). Based on the competing risk regression method, we built a prediction model including age, gender, etiology, lymphocyte, and A/G ratio. Three groups with different risks were generated on account of tertiles of the 5-year risk predicted by the model. The cumulative 1-, 3-, and 5-year incidences of HCC were 2.0%, 20.8%, and 42.3% in high-risk group, 0.9%, 10.1%, and 17.7% in medium-risk group, and 0%, 2.0%, 8.5% in low-risk group (P < 0.001). The model showed excellent discrimination and calibration in predicting the risk of HCC occurrence in patients with all-cause cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The model could make an individual prediction of cancer occurrence and stratify patients based on predicted risk, regardless of the causes of cirrhosis.

Personalized Antiviral Drug Selection in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Using a Machine Learning Model: A Multinational Study

INTRODUCTION

Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is reportedly superior or at least comparable to entecavir (ETV) for the prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B; however, it has distinct long-term renal and bone toxicities. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model (designated as Prediction of Liver cancer using Artificial intelligence-driven model for Network-antiviral Selection for hepatitis B [PLAN-S]) to predict an individualized risk of HCC during ETV or TDF therapy.

METHODS

This multinational study included 13,970 patients with chronic hepatitis B. The derivation (n = 6,790), Korean validation (n = 4,543), and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts (n = 2,637) were established. Patients were classified as the TDF-superior group when a PLAN-S-predicted HCC risk under ETV treatment is greater than under TDF treatment, and the others were defined as the TDF-nonsuperior group.

RESULTS

The PLAN-S model was derived using 8 variables and generated a c-index between 0.67 and 0.78 for each cohort. The TDF-superior group included a higher proportion of male patients and patients with cirrhosis than the TDF-nonsuperior group. In the derivation, Korean validation, and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts, 65.3%, 63.5%, and 76.4% of patients were classified as the TDF-superior group, respectively. In the TDF-superior group of each cohort, TDF was associated with a significantly lower risk of HCC than ETV (hazard ratio = 0.60-0.73, all P < 0.05). In the TDF-nonsuperior group, however, there was no significant difference between the 2 drugs (hazard ratio = 1.16-1.29, all P > 0.1).

DISCUSSION

Considering the individual HCC risk predicted by PLAN-S and the potential TDF-related toxicities, TDF and ETV treatment may be recommended for the TDF-superior and TDF-nonsuperior groups, respectively.

Dynamic changes in three biomarkers predict early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving antiviral therapy

PURPOSE

Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remain at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma during antiviral therapy. We aimed to clarify the values of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), lectin-reactive fraction of AFP (AFP-L3), and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) for early warning of HCC.

METHODS

A total of 1348 CHB patients received antiviral therapy and follow-up every 26 weeks. Eighty-four patients with HCC were age-, sex-, and cirrhosis-matched with 168 controls. AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP were compared between the groups from 104 weeks before HCC diagnosis (- 104 w) to the time of diagnosis (0 w).

RESULTS

Of the 84 HCC patients, 60 (71.4%) had early-stage HCC, AFP increased from - 26 w, and AFP-L3 and DCP increased from - 78 w. However, levels were unchanged in controls. ΔAFP, ΔAFP-L3, and ΔDCP showed similar abilities for predicting HCC (P > 0.05). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that AFP had better diagnostic performance for HCC than AFP-L3, DCP, or their combination. The cut-off values of AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP were 5.3 ng/mL, 1.05%, and 31.5 mAU/mL, respectively. Notably, lower AFP values were required to diagnose HCC in patients with detectable HBV DNA (4.1 ng/mL) or elevated alanine aminotransferase (5.2 ng/mL).

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP can help to predict HCC in CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy. A lower AFP value is needed to diagnose HCC, especially in patients with detectable HBV DNA or elevated alanine aminotransferase.

Current Status and Analysis of Machine Learning in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common tumor. Although the diagnosis and treatment of HCC have made great progress, the overall prognosis remains poor. As the core component of artificial intelligence, machine learning (ML) has developed rapidly in the past decade. In particular, ML has become widely used in the medical field, and it has helped in the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. Different algorithms of ML have different roles in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. This article reviews recent research, explains the application of different ML models in HCC, and provides suggestions for follow-up research.

Diabetes Mellitus Impacts on the Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We examined whether changing clinical characteristics and presence of diabetes mellitus (DM) impact the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores.

METHODS

Adult patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) on ≥6 months of entecavir/tenofovir treatment between January 2005 and March 2020 were identified using a territory-wide electronic database in Hong Kong. DM was defined by antidiabetic agents, hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5%, fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/L, and/or diagnosis codes. PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B), and aMAP scores were assessed by area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) and compared with CAMD and REAL-B scores with DM as a component.

RESULTS

Of 48,706 patients, 2792, 11,563, 15,471, and 18,880 started entecavir/tenofovir treatment between 2005-2008, 2009-2012, 2013-2016, and 2017-2020, respectively; DM prevalence rose from 15.5% in 2005-2008 to 24.3% in 2017-2020. AUROCs were comparable across the 4 periods in the 5 HCC risk scores (AUROCs ranged between 0.75 and 0.81). At a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 1512 non-diabetic (4.0%) and 645 (6.2%) diabetic patients developed HCC. AUROCs of all 5 scores were lower in diabetic patients than in non-diabetic patients (AUROCs ranged between 0.67-0.71 vs 0.78-0.82; all P < .001). REAL-B score achieved an AUROC of 0.71 in diabetic and 0.82 in non-diabetic patients. Both diabetic and non-diabetic patients in the low-risk group by REAL-B score had a low HCC incidence below the threshold of cost-effective HCC surveillance, ie, 0.2% annually.

CONCLUSIONS

REAL-B score is accurate and preferred in entecavir/tenofovir-treated CHB patients because of the increasing prevalence of DM.

Novel, high accuracy models for hepatocellular carcinoma prediction based on longitudinal data and cell-free DNA signatures

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Current hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores do not reflect changes in HCC risk resulting from liver disease progression/regression over time. We aimed to develop and validate two novel prediction models using multivariate longitudinal data, with or without cell-free DNA (cfDNA) signatures.

METHODS

A total of 13,728 patients from two nationwide multicenter prospective observational cohorts, the majority of whom had chronic hepatitis B, were enrolled. aMAP score, as one of the most promising HCC prediction models, was evaluated for each patient. Low-pass whole-genome sequencing was used to derive multi-modal cfDNA fragmentomics features. A longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm was used to model longitudinal profiles of patient biomarkers and estimate the risk of HCC development.

RESULTS

We developed and externally validated two novel HCC prediction models with a greater accuracy, termed aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores. The aMAP-2 score, calculated with longitudinal data on the aMAP score and alpha-fetoprotein values during an up to 8-year follow-up, performed superbly in the training and external validation cohorts (AUC 0.83-0.84). The aMAP-2 score showed further improvement and accurately divided aMAP-defined high-risk patients into two groups with 5-year cumulative HCC incidences of 23.4% and 4.1%, respectively (p = 0.0065). The aMAP-2 Plus score, which incorporates cfDNA signatures (nucleosome, fragment and motif scores), optimized the prediction of HCC development, especially for patients with cirrhosis (AUC 0.85-0.89). Importantly, the stepwise approach (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) stratified patients with cirrhosis into two groups, comprising 90% and 10% of the cohort, with an annual HCC incidence of 0.8% and 12.5%, respectively (p <0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores are highly accurate in predicting HCC. The stepwise application of aMAP scores provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at a high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

In this multicenter nationwide cohort study, we developed and externally validated two novel hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction models (called aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores), using longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm and longitudinal data (i.e., aMAP and alpha-fetoprotein) with or without the addition of cell-free DNA signatures, based on 13,728 patients from 61 centers across mainland China. Our findings demonstrated that the performance of aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores was markedly better than the original aMAP score, and any other existing HCC risk scores across all subsets, especially for patients with cirrhosis. More importantly, the stepwise application of aMAP scores (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance.

Tenofovir alafenamide and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate reduce incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Background & Aims

Antiviral therapy may attenuate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to explore how tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) affect HCC risk in patients with CHB.

Methods

The REACH-B, aMAP, and mPAGE-B models were utilized to assess HCC risk in patients with CHB from two global randomized-controlled trials evaluating the impact of TAF vs. TDF treatment. Standard incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated using data from the REACH-B model as a ratio of observed HCC cases in the TAF- or TDF-treated patients vs. predicted HCC cases for untreated historical controls. Proportions of treated patients shifting aMAP and mPAGE-B risk categories between baseline and Week 240 were calculated.

Results

Of the 1,632 patients (TAF, n = 1,093; TDF, n = 539) followed for up to 300 weeks, 22 HCC cases developed. Those receiving TAF had an SIR that was lower compared to the SIR of individuals receiving TDF: 0.32 (p <0.001) vs. 0.56 (p = 0.06). In the general study population, individuals without cirrhosis at baseline had an SIR that was lower compared to the SIR of individuals with cirrhosis at baseline: 0.37 (p <0.001) vs. 0.58 (p = 0.15). Of the patients at low risk of HCC at baseline, the majority (97%) remained low risk by mPAGE-B and aMAP scoring at Week 240. Among those at medium or high risk at baseline, substantial portions shifted to a lower risk category by Week 240 (mPAGE-B: 22% and 42%; aMAP: 39% and 63%, respectively).

Conclusions

This evaluation provides evidence that treatment with TAF or TDF can reduce HCC risk in patients with CHB, particularly in patients without cirrhosis.

Impact and implications

Despite the substantial impact of HCC on long-term outcomes of patients with CHB, the differential risk of HCC development among those receiving treatment with TAF vs. TDF has not been well elucidated. Using three validated risk prediction models, we found that TAF is at least as effective as TDF in reducing HCC risk in patients with CHB. While TDF is well-studied in the context of HCC risk reduction, our novel findings underscore the effectiveness of TAF as a treatment option for patients with CHB.

Clinical trial numbers

NCT01940341; NCT02836249; NCT01940471; NCT02836236.

HCC prediction models in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Our study aimed to compare the predictive performance of different hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir, including discrimination, calibration, negative predictive value (NPV) in low-risk, and proportion of low-risk.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature research in PubMed, EMbase, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science before January 13, 2022. The predictive performance was assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration index, negative predictive value, and the proportion in low-risk. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses of discrimination and calibration were conducted. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the stability of the results.

RESULTS

We identified ten prediction models in 23 studies. The pooled 3-, 5-, and 10-year AUROC varied from 0.72 to 0.84, 0.74 to 0.83, and 0.76 to 0.86, respectively. REAL-B, AASL-HCC, and HCC-RESCUE achieved the best discrimination. HCC-RESCUE, PAGE-B, and mPAGE-B overestimated HCC development, whereas mREACH-B, AASL-HCC, REAL-B, CAMD, CAGE-B, SAGE-B, and aMAP underestimated it. All models were able to identify people with a low risk of HCC accurately. HCC-RESCUE and aMAP recognized over half of the population as low-risk. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis showed similar results.

CONCLUSION

Considering the predictive performance of all four aspects, we suggest that HCC-RESCUE was the best model to utilize in clinical practice, especially in primary care and low-income areas. To confirm our findings, further validation studies with the above four components were required.

A machine learning model for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to overcome the prognostic performance limitations of conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk models. We established and validated an ML-based HCC predictive model optimized for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infections receiving antiviral therapy (AVT).

METHODS

Treatment-naïve CHB patients who were started entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were enrolled. We used a training cohort (n = 960) to develop a novel ML model that predicted HCC development within 5 years and validated the model using an independent external cohort (n = 1937). ML algorithms consider all potential interactions and do not use predefined hypotheses.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients in the training cohort was 48 years, and most patients (68.9%) were men. During the median 59.3 (interquartile range 45.8-72.3) months of follow-up, 69 (7.2%) patients developed HCC. Our ML-based HCC risk prediction model had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.900, which was better than the AUCs of CAMD (0.778) and REAL B (0.772) (both p < .05). The better performance of our model was maintained (AUC = 0.872 vs. 0.788 for CAMD and 0.801 for REAL B) in the validation cohort. Using cut-off probabilities of 0.3 and 0.5, the cumulative incidence of HCC development differed significantly among the three risk groups (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our new ML model performed better than models in terms of predicting the risk of HCC development in CHB patients receiving AVT.

Risk stratification and early detection biomarkers for precision HCC screening

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality remains high primarily due to late diagnosis as a consequence of failed early detection. Professional societies recommend semi-annual HCC screening in at-risk patients with chronic liver disease to increase the likelihood of curative treatment receipt and improve survival. However, recent dynamic shift of HCC etiologies from viral to metabolic liver diseases has significantly increased the potential target population for the screening, whereas annual incidence rate has become substantially lower. Thus, with the contemporary HCC etiologies, the traditional screening approach might not be practical and cost-effective. HCC screening consists of (i) definition of rational at-risk population, and subsequent (ii) repeated application of early detection tests to the population at regular intervals. The suboptimal performance of the currently available HCC screening tests highlights an urgent need for new modalities and strategies to improve early HCC detection. In this review, we overview recent developments of clinical, molecular, and imaging-based tools to address the current challenge, and discuss conceptual framework and approaches of their clinical translation and implementation. These encouraging progresses are expected to transform the current "one-size-fits-all" HCC screening into individualized precision approaches to early HCC detection and ultimately improve the poor HCC prognosis in the foreseeable future.

Factors associated with persistent positive in HBV DNA level in patients with chronic Hepatitis B receiving entecavir treatment

Introduction

The clinical significance of persistent positive in Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) DNA level in patients receiving antiviral therapy is not well known. We investigated factors associated with persistent viremia (PV) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) given 78-week entecavir.

Methods

A total of 394 treatment-naïve CHB patients who had undergone liver biopsy at baseline and week 78 of treatment were analyzed in this prospective multicentre study. We identified patients with PV (above the lower limit of quantification, 20 IU/ml) after 78 weeks of entecavir therapy. Stepwise, forward, multivariate regression analyses of specified baseline parameters were apllied to identify factors associated with PV. Futhermore, we assessed the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in all patients using models of the risk of HCC development.

Results

Of the 394 patients, 90 (22.8%) still with PV after 78-week antiviral treatment. Factors associated significantly with PV (vs complete virological response, CVR) were HBV DNA level ≥8 log10 IU/mL (OR, 3.727; 95% CI, 1.851-7.505; P < 0.001), Anti-HBc level < 3 log10 IU/mL (OR, 2.384; 95% CI, 1.223-4.645; P=0.011), and HBeAg seropositivity (OR, 2.871; 95% CI, 1.563-5.272; P < 0.001). Patients with PV were less likely to have fibrosis progression and HCC development than those with the CVR. Of the 11 HBeAg-positive patients with HBV DNA level ≥8 log10 IU/mL and Anti-HBc level < 3 log10 IU/mL at baseline, 9 (81.8%) had persistent positivity in HBV DNA level and 0 had fibrosis progression at week 78 of treatment.

Discussion

In conclusion, HBV DNA level ≥8 log10 IU/mL, Anti-HBc level < 3 log10 IU/mL and HBeAg seropositivity at baseline contribute to PV in patients with CHB receiving 78-week antiviral treatment. In addition, the rate of fibrosis progression and the risk of HCC development in patients with PV were kept low. The complete protocol for the clinical trial has been registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01962155 and NCT03568578).

Improved on-treatment fibrosis-4 during antiviral therapy and lower hepatocellular carcinoma risk in cirrhotic patients with hepatitis B

Normalization of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels is one of the goals of hepatitis B treatment. However, ALT levels in cirrhosis patients might be normal or mildly elevated regardless of ongoing inflammation. Therefore, we examined whether on-treatment ALT and other potential on-treatment indicators could be clinical surrogates of antiviral therapy in HBV-related cirrhosis. A total of 911 patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis who started treatment with entecavir or tenofovir were analyzed. At 1 year of antiviral therapy, we evaluated 'ALT normalization', 'undetectable serum HBV DNA', 'fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index improvement', and 'serum HBeAg loss' as potential biomarkers for HCC development. During 6.6 (3.8-10.2) years of follow-up, 222 patients (24.3%) newly developed HCC. Undetectable HBV DNA levels at 1 year were observed in 667 patients (73.2%), and the HCC incidence was significantly lower in this population (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.66, 95% CI 0.50-0.87). Improvement of the FIB-4 index (< 3.25) was associated with a lower risk of HCC in 478 patients with an elevated FIB-4 index (adjusted HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.55-0.82). However, there was no significant difference in HCC risk between those with and without normalization of ALT levels (p = 0.39) among those with elevated ALT levels or between those with and without HBeAg seroconversion (p = 0.55) among HBeAg-positive patients. Therefore, on-treatment FIB-4 levels at 1 year are clinically useful surrogates of antiviral therapy for HBV-related cirrhosis patients.

Review article: Available modalities for screening and imaging diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma-Current gaps and challenges

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence and mortality continue to rise worldwide. Society guidelines recommend HCC screening for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) or cirrhosis. Unfortunately, HCC screening rates remain relatively low, and the performance characteristics of current screening modalities are suboptimal.

AIM

The aim of the study was to discuss the current state of HCC screening and imaging diagnosis utilising standard and emerging imaging modalities in addition to outlining areas of need and ongoing study.

METHODS

A review of the field was performed combining literature searches and expert opinion.

RESULTS

The development of the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS version 2018) algorithms have advanced and standardised the imaging diagnosis of HCC. While guidelines recommend US for HCC screening, the sensitivity of ultrasound is highly variable for the detection of early-stage HCC with sensitivity reports ranging from 40% to 80%. Biomarker-based scores such as GALAD and alternative imaging modalities such as abbreviated MRI are promising tools to improve HCC early detection. Patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and patients hepatitis C (HCV) who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR) can present a clinical dilemma regarding the need for HCC screening. Biomarkers and elastography can aid in identification of individuals at high risk for HCC in these populations.

CONCLUSIONS

The LI-RADS system has standardised the imaging interpretation and diagnosis of HCC. Work remains regarding screening in special populations and optimization of screening modalities.

PREDICTION OF HEPATOCELLULAR CARCINOMA THROUGH THE MODIFIED PAGE-B SCORE (MPAGE-B) IN PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC HEPATITIS B: IT SHOULD BE USED IN CLINICAL PRACTICE?

•Chronic hepatitis B is a well-defined risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma, and it is important to implement early detection programs for hepatocellular carcinoma in affected patients. In this study, the data found suggest that the mPAGE-B score can be applied to reduce the number of medical consultations in young patients infected with the hepatitis B virus and aged <40 years. Background - Persistent hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection can lead to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) alone, that is, without the development of previous cirrhosis, which makes it of paramount importance to predict the risk patients with chronic hepatitis B have for developing HCC in the future. Thus, the mPAGE-B score was developed in order to predict very low risks of HCC, becoming an important score, since with low risk, patient surveillance can be spread out. Objective - The main objective of this study was to predict the risk of HCC according to the mPAGE-B score for patients with chronic hepatitis B, using antiviral therapy. Results - A cross-sectional, descriptive, quantitative, and retrospective study was conducted. Patients with chronic hepatitis B from the Hepatology Outpatient Clinic of the Federal University of the Fronteira Sul/HCPF in Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul, covering a period of 12 years, were analyzed. Results - Of the 67 patients submitted to data collection, the mean age at diagnosis was 51.4 (±12.1) years, with a predominance of males (76.1%-n.51). All patients were HBeAg negative at diagnosis and 11 (16.4%) had cirrhosis. Regarding the antiviral regimen, 70.1% used tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and 29.9% entecavir (ETV). According to m-PAGE-B stratification, 18 (25%) patients were classified as low-risk, 30 (41.7%) as intermediate-risk, and 19 (26.4%) as high-risk of developing HCC. The probability of developing HCC of these 67 patients in 3 years was 0.4% for low, 2.8% for moderate, and 9% for high risk. In 5 years, the probability was 0.5% for low, 4.4% for moderate, and 14% for high risk. Conclusion - This study demonstrates that the mPAGE-B score can be applied to decrease the number of consultations of patients with chronic hepatitis B in specialized outpatient clinics and, based on this population, patients aged ≤40 years may have one consultation per year instead of semi-annual.

Global burden of liver cancer in males and females: Changing etiological basis and the growing contribution of NASH

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The etiology of liver diseases has changed in recent years, but its impact on the comparative burden of liver cancer between males and females is unclear. We estimated sex differences in the burden of liver cancer across 204 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019.

APPROACH AND RESULT

We analyzed temporal trends in the burden of liver cancer using the methodology framework of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. We estimated annual frequencies and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of liver cancer incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by sex, country, region, and etiology of liver disease. Globally in 2019, the frequency of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs due to liver cancer were 376,483, 333,672, and 9,048,723 in males, versus 157,881, 150,904, and 3,479,699 in females. From 2010 to 2019, the incidence ASRs in males increased while death and DALY ASRs remained stable; incidence, death, and DALY ASRs in females decreased. Death ASRs for both sexes increased only in the Americas and remained stable or declined in remaining regions. In 2019, hepatitis B was the leading cause of liver cancer death in males, and hepatitis C in females. From 2010 to 2019, NASH had the fastest growing death ASRs in males and females. The ratio of female-to-male death ASRs in 2019 was lowest in hepatitis B (0.2) and highest in NASH (0.9).

CONCLUSIONS

The overall burden of liver cancer is higher in males, although incidence and death ASRs from NASH-associated liver cancer in females approach that of males.

Prediction Model with HLA-A*33:03 Reveals Number of Days to Develop Liver Cancer from Blood Test

The development of liver cancer in patients with hepatitis B is a major problem, and several models have been reported to predict the development of liver cancer. However, no predictive model involving human genetic factors has been reported to date. For the items incorporated in the prediction model reported so far, we selected items that were significant in predicting liver carcinogenesis in Japanese patients with hepatitis B and constructed a prediction model of liver carcinogenesis by the Cox proportional hazard model with the addition of Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) genotypes. The model, which included four items-sex, age at the time of examination, alpha-fetoprotein level (log₁₀AFP) and presence or absence of HLA-A*33:03-revealed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.862 for HCC prediction within 1 year and an AUROC of 0.863 within 3 years. A 1000 repeated validation test resulted in a C-index of 0.75 or higher, or sensitivity of 0.70 or higher, indicating that this predictive model can distinguish those at high risk of developing liver cancer within a few years with high accuracy. The prediction model constructed in this study, which can distinguish between chronic hepatitis B patients who develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) early and those who develop HCC late or not, is clinically meaningful.

A new model predicts hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with HBV-related decompensated liver cirrhosis and long-term antiviral therapy: a prospective study

Background

We aimed to evaluate the prediction values of non-invasive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis (LC) and long-term NA treatment.

Methods

Patients with compensated or decompensated cirrhosis (DC), who achieved long-term virological response, were enrolled. DC and its stages were defined by the complications including ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, or renal failure. Prediction accuracy of several risk scores, including ALBI, CAMD, PAGE-B, mPAGE-B and aMAP, was compared.

Results

The median follow-up duration was 37 (28-66) months. Among the 229 patients, 9 (9.57%) patients in the compensated LC group and 39 (28.89%) patients in the DC group developed HCC. The incidence of HCC was higher in the DC group ( X ² = 12.478, P < 0.01). The AUROC of ALBI, aMAP, CAMD, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores were 0.512, 0.667, 0.638, 0.663, 0.679, respectively. There was no significant difference in AUROC between CAMD, aMAP, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B (all P > 0.05). Univariable analysis showed that age, DC status and platelet were associated with HCC development, and multivariable analysis showed that age and DC status (both P < 0.01) were independent risk factors for HCC development, then Model (Age_DC) was developed and its AUROC was 0.718. Another model, Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) consisting of age, DC stage, PLT, TBil was also developed, and its AUROC was larger than that of Model (Age_DC) (0.760 vs. 0.718). Moreover, AUROC of Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) was larger than the other five models (all P < 0.05). With an optimal cut-off value of 0.236, Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) achieved 70.83% sensitivity, 76.24% specificity.

Conclusion

There is a lack of non-invasive risk scores for HCC development in HBV-related DC, and a new model consisting of age, DC stage, PLT, TBil may be an alternative.

Alanine aminotransferase levels as therapeutic targets after nucleotide/nucleoside analog therapy in patient with chronic hepatitis B

AIM

Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is a criterion for the introduction of nucleotide/nucleoside analog (NA), and ALT levels are decreased by NA treatment. However, the association between post-treatment ALT levels and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk remains unclear. To fill this gap, we aimed to establish a target value of ALT level during NA treatment.

METHODS

In total, 413 patients with chronic hepatitis B who received entecavir, tenofovir alafenamide, or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate were enrolled. The subsequent development of HCC was examined and a target value of ALT level during NA treatment as a risk marker for HCC was evaluated.

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 5.1 years, during which time 27 patients (8.6%) developed HCC. ALT level at the start of treatment was not associated with HCC development (p = 0.08). When stratified by ALT at 1 year after NA initiation, the cumulative 3- and 5-year rates of HCC for patients with ALT ≥21 IU/L were 11.5% and 18.1%, and those with ALT <21 IU/L was 2.3% and 6.5%, respectively. Patients with ALT <21 IU/L had a significantly lower risk of HCC development compared with patients with ALT ≥21 IU/L (p = 0.002). In multivariable analysis adjusting age, sex, and platelet counts, ALT ≥21 IU/L was an independent risk factor of HCC development with hazard ratio of 4.5 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-20.4).

CONCLUSIONS

ALT <21 IU/L at 1 year after NA initiation has a lower risk of HCC and could be used as a target value for NA treatment.

Development of a nomogram to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis on antivirals

Objective

Patients with compensated hepatitis B-related cirrhosis receiving antivirals are at the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the incidence of HCC in patients with hepatitis-B related cirrhosis.

Design

A total of 632 patients with compensated hepatitis-B related cirrhosis treated with entecavir or tenofovir between August 2010 and July 2018 were enrolled. Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for HCC and a nomogram was developed using these factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analyses were used to evaluate the nomogram performance. The results were validated in an external cohort (n = 324).

Results

In the multivariate analysis, age per 10 years, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio > 1.6, and platelet count < 86×10⁹/L were independent predictors of HCC occurrence. A nomogram was developed to predict HCC risk using these three factors (ranging from 0 to 20). The nomogram showed better performance (AUC: 0.83) than that of the established models (all P < 0.05). The 3-year cumulative HCC incidences in the low- (scores < 4), medium- (4-10), and high-risk (> 10) subgroups were 0.7%, 4.3%, and 17.7%, respectively, in the derivation cohort, and 1.2%, 3.9%, and 17.8%, respectively, in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

The nomogram showed good discrimination and calibration in estimating HCC risk in patients with hepatitis-B related cirrhosis on antivirals. High-risk patients with a score > 10 points require close surveillance.

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma at baseline and 1 year after initiation of nucleos(t)ide analog therapy for chronic hepatitis B

Nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) cannot completely suppress the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study aimed to identify the risk factors for HCC development in naïve CHB patients treated with current NA. Patients receiving NA (n = 905) were recruited retrospectively from the 17 hospitals of the Japanese Red Cross Liver Study Group. All treatment-naïve patients had been receiving current NA continuously for more than 1 year until the end of the follow-up. We analyzed the accuracy of predictive risk score using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve. The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score was significantly improved by NA therapy (-0.171 ± 0.396; p < 0.001 at Week 48). A total of 72 (8.0%) patients developed HCC over a median follow-up of 6.2 (1.03-15.7) years. An independent predictive factor of HCC development was older age, cirrhosis, lower platelet counts at baseline and ALBI score, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at 1 year after NA therapy according to multivariate analysis. The accuracy was assessed using the PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, aMAP, APA-B, and REAL-B scores that included these factors. Discrimination was generally acceptable for these models. aMAP and REAL-B demonstrated high discrimination with 0.866/0.862 and 0.833/0.859 for 3- and 5-year prediction from the status of 1 year after NA therapy, respectively. Baseline age and platelet count, as well as ALBI and AFP one year after NA, were useful for stratifying carcinogenesis risk. The aMAP and REAL-B scores were validated with high accuracy in Japanese CHB patients.

Suboptimal Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhosis

This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of pre-existing well-validated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models, established in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started potent antiviral therapy (AVT). We retrospectively reviewed the cases of 1339 treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started AVT (median period, 56.8 months). The scores of the pre-existing HCC risk prediction models were calculated at the time of AVT initiation. HCC developed in 211 patients (15.1%), and the cumulative probability of HCC development at 5 years was 14.6%. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.023), lower platelet count (aHR, 0.997), lower serum albumin level (aHR, 0.578), and greater LS value (aHR, 1.012) were associated with HCC development. Harrell’s c-indices of the PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, modified REACH-B, CAMD, aMAP, HCC-RESCUE, AASL-HCC, Toronto HCC Risk Index, PLAN-B, APA-B, CAGE-B, and SAGE-B models were suboptimal in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis, ranging from 0.565 to 0.667. Nevertheless, almost all patients were well stratified into low-, intermediate-, or high-risk groups according to each model (all log-rank p < 0.05), except for HCC-RESCUE (p = 0.080). Since all low-risk patients had cirrhosis at baseline, they had unneglectable cumulative incidence of HCC development (5-year incidence, 4.9−7.5%). Pre-existing risk prediction models for patients with chronic hepatitis B showed suboptimal predictive performances for the assessment of HCC development in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.

Entecavir plus Biejia-Ruangan compound reduces the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and liver fibrosis are associated with a high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. We assessed whether entecavir (ETV) plus Biejia-Ruangan compound (BRC), an anti-fibrotic traditional Chinese medicine, can further reduce the risk of HCC in treatment-naïve Chinese patients with CHB and an Ishak fibrosis score of ≥3 points derived from our parent double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trial.

METHODS

After a 72-week comparison between ETV+BRC and ETV+placebo treatment, participants were eligible to enter an open-label treatment phase and were followed up every 6 months. The primary [secondary] endpoints were the incidence of HCC [liver-related deaths, non-HCC events, and non-liver-related deaths]. Modified intention-to-treat (mITT), intention-to-treat (ITT), and per-protocol (PP) populations were defined for the time-to-event analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 1,000 patients were recruited; the median age was 42.0 years; 69.9% were male and 58.3% were HBeAg positive. In the mITT population, the 7-year cumulative incidence of HCC [liver-related deaths] was 4.7% [0.2%] for ETV+BRC, which was significantly lower than 9.3% [2.2%] for ETV monotherapy (p = 0.008 [p = 0.030]). Notably, ETV+BRC treatment yielded a lower incidence of HCC in those who did not achieve regression of fibrosis at week 72 than ETV monotherapy (p = 0.018). There were no differences in the other 2 secondary endpoints or safety profiles between the groups. Multivariable Cox proportional regression analysis, including the treatment allocation as a parameter, also demonstrated that ETV+BRC treatment was associated with a reduced incidence of HCC. The ITT and PP analyses showed consistent results.

CONCLUSIONS

ETV plus BRC combination treatment could further reduce the risk of HCC and liver-related deaths in patients with CHB and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, which may have important clinical implications for HCC prevention.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection are at an increased risk of developing liver cancer (specifically hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]). While there are effective antiviral treatments that can suppress the virus in chronically infected patients, the risk of HCC remains. Herein, we show that adding a traditional Chinese medicine called Biejia-Ruangan compound to an antiviral reduced the risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B.