Comprehensive analysis of prognostic factors in hospitalized patients with pneumonia occurring outside hospital: Serum albumin is not less important than pneumonia severity assessment scale

Clinical features and risk factors analysis for poor outcomes of severe community-acquired pneumonia in children: a nomogram prediction model

Background

Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death among children aged 1-59 months. The early prediction of poor outcomes (PO) is of critical concern. This study aimed to explore the risk factors relating to PO in severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) and build a PO-predictive nomogram model for children with SCAP.

Methods

We retrospectively identified 300 Chinese pediatric patients diagnosed with SCAP who were hospitalized in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from August 1, 2018, to October 31, 2021. Children were divided into the PO and the non-PO groups. The occurrence of PO was designated as the dependent variable. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors of PO. A nomogram model was constructed from the multivariate logistic regression analysis and internally validated for model discrimination and calibration. The performance of the nomogram was estimated using the concordance index (C-index).

Results

According to the efficacy evaluation criteria, 56 of 300 children demonstrated PO. The multivariate logistic regression analysis resulted in the following independent risk factors for PO: co-morbidity (OR: 8.032, 95% CI: 3.556-18.140, P < 0.0001), requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) (OR: 7.081, 95% CI: 2.250-22.282, P = 0.001), and ALB < 35 g/L (OR: 3.203, 95% CI: 1.151-8.912, P = 0.026). Results of the internal validation confirmed that the model provided good discrimination (concordance index [C-index], 0.876 [95% CI: 0.828-0.925]). The calibration plots in the nomogram model were of high quality.

Conclusion

The nomogram facilitated accurate prediction of PO in children diagnosed with SCAP and could be helpful for clinical decision-making.

Exploration of prognostic factors for prediction of mortality in elderly CAP population using a nomogram model

Background

The incidence and mortality rate of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in elderly patients were higher than the younger population. The assessment tools including CURB-65 and qSOFA have been applied in early detection of high-risk patients with CAP. However, several disadvantages exist to limit the efficiency of these tools for accurate assessment in elderly CAP. Therefore, we aimed to explore a more comprehensive tool to predict mortality in elderly CAP population by establishing a nomogram model.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed elderly patients with CAP in Minhang Hospital, Fudan University. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression combined with multivariate analyses were used to select independent predictive factors and established nomogram models via R software. Calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA) and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were generated to assess predictive performance.

Results

LASSO and multiple logistic regression analyses showed the age, pulse, NLR, albumin, BUN, and D-dimer were independent risk predictors. A nomogram model (NB-DAPA model) was established for predicting mortality of CAP in elderly patients. In both training and validation set, the area under the curve (AUC) of the NB-DAPA model showed superiority than CURB-65 and qSOFA. Meanwhile, DCA revealed that the predictive model had significant net benefits for most threshold probabilities.

Conclusion

Our established NB-DAPA nomogram model is a simple and accurate tool for predicting in-hospital mortality of CAP, adapted for patients aged 65 years and above. The predictive performance of the NB-DAPA model was better than PSI, CURB-65 and qSOFA.

Association of Serum Albumin and Copeptin with Early Clinical Deterioration and Instability in Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background: There is a paucity of data on biomarkers for the early deterioration and clinical instability of patients in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), as treatment failure occurs in the first seven days in 90% of patients. Aim: To evaluate serum albumin and copeptin with CURB-65, PSI scoring and ATS/IDSA minor criteria for the prediction of early mortality or ICU-admission (7 days) and clinical instability after 72 h. Methods: In 100 consecutive hospitalized adult CAP patients, PSI-scores, CURB-65 scores, ATS/IDSA 2007 minor criteria, copeptin and albumin on admission were evaluated. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to assess independent risk factors for early combined mortality or ICU admission. Predictive powers of albumin and copeptin were tested with ROC curves and ICU-free survival probability was tested using Kaplan−Meier analysis. Results: Albumin was lower and copeptin higher in patients with short-term adverse outcomes (p < 0.05). Cox regression analysis showed that albumin [HR (95% CI): 0.41 (0.18−0.94, p = 0.034)] and copeptin [HR (95% CI): 1.94 (1.03−3.67, p = 0.042)] were independent risk factors for early combined mortality or ICU admission (7 days). The Kaplan−Meier analysis observed that high copeptin (>27.12 ng/mL) and low albumin levels (<2.85 g/dL) had a lower (p < 0.001) survival probability. The diagnostic accuracy of albumin was better than copeptin. The inclusion of albumin and copeptin into ATS/IDSA minor criteria significantly improved their predictive power. Conclusions: Both biomarkers serum albumin and copeptin can predict early deterioration and clinical instability in hospitalized CAP patients and increase the prognostic power of the traditional clinical scoring systems.

Prognostic value of geriatric nutritional risk index for aspiration pneumonia: a retrospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

The clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of aspiration pneumonia remain poorly defined. Geriatric nutrition risk index (GNRI) has recently been reported to exhibit a prognostic value for several diseases in older adults.

AIMS

We investigated the clinical characteristics and prognostic significance of GNRI for aspiration pneumonia in older adult patients.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational cohort study, conducted in a single-institute acute-phase community hospital, patients with aspiration pneumonia diagnosed at our institute between April 2014 and March 2016 were enrolled. Data on patient characteristics, microbiological findings, and clinical course were collected. The outcome was in-hospital mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was conducted to compare the predictive value of each parameter. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Overall, 587 aspiration pneumonia patients aged ≥ 65 years were enrolled. Their mean age was 86 years. Among them, 97 (16.5%) died. In ROC analysis for in-hospital mortality, as compared to albumin, body mass index, and A-DROP score, GNRI had a greater area under the curve value, with a significant difference between GNRI and albumin (p = 0.0058). Male sex (p = 0.028), chronic heart failure (p = 0.023), history of malignancy (p = 0.0025), lower GNRI (p < 0.001), and initial antibiotic change (p < 0.001) were identified as independent adverse prognostic factors in multivariate analysis.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that GNRI is a potential prognostic marker for older adults with aspiration pneumonia and may act as a proxy for disease severity. Our results support the use of GNRI in the clinical management of aspiration pneumonia.

CURB-65 plus hypoalbuminemia: a new score system for prediction of the in-hospital mortality risk in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia

INTRODUCTION

There is the need of a simple but highly reliable score system for stratifying the risk of mortality and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) transfer in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia at the Emergency Room.

PURPOSE

In this study, the ability of CURB-65, extended CURB-65, PSI and CALL scores and C-Reactive Protein (CRP) to predict intra-hospital mortality and ICU admission in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia were evaluated.

METHODS

During March-May 2020, a retrospective, single-center study including all consecutive adult patients with diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia was conducted. Clinical, laboratory and radiological data as well as CURB-65, expanded CURB-65, PSI and CALL scores were calculated based on data recorded at hospital admission.

RESULTS

Overall, 224 patients with documented SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia were included in the study. As for intrahospital mortality (24/224, 11%), PSI performed better than all the other tested scores, which showed lower AUC values (AUC=0.890 for PSI versus AUC=0.885, AUC=0.858 and AUC=0.743 for expanded CURB-65, CURB-65 and CALL scores, respectively). Of note, the addition of hypoalbuminemia to the CURB-65 score increased the prediction value of intra-hospital mortality (AUC=0.905). All the tested scores were less predictive for the need of ICU transfer (26/224, 12%), with the best AUC for extended CURB-65 score (AUC= 0.708).

CONCLUSION

The addition of albumin level to the easy-to-calculate CURB-65 score at hospital admission is able to improve the quality of prediction of intra-hospital mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.

A literature review of severity scores for adults with influenza or community-acquired pneumonia - implications for influenza vaccines and therapeutics

Influenza vaccination and antiviral therapeutics may attenuate disease, decreasing severity of illness in vaccinated and treated persons. Standardized assessment tools, definitions of disease severity, and clinical endpoints would support characterizing the attenuating effects of influenza vaccines and antivirals. We review potential clinical parameters and endpoints that may be useful for ordinal scales evaluating attenuating effects of influenza vaccines and antivirals in hospital-based studies. In studies of influenza and community-acquired pneumonia, common physiologic parameters that predicted outcomes such as mortality, ICU admission, complications, and duration of stay included vital signs (hypotension, tachypnea, fever, hypoxia), laboratory results (blood urea nitrogen, platelets, serum sodium), and radiographic findings of infiltrates or effusions. Ordinal scales based on these parameters may be useful endpoints for evaluating attenuating effects of influenza vaccines and therapeutics. Factors such as clinical and policy relevance, reproducibility, and specificity of measurements should be considered when creating a standardized ordinal scale for assessment.

Clinical features and risk factors analysis of bronchitis obliterans due to refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in children: a nomogram prediction model

Background

Early prediction of bronchitis obliterans (BO) is of great significance to the improvement of the long-term prognosis of children caused by refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (RMPP). This study aimed to establish a nomogram model to predict the risk of BO in children due to RMPP.

Methods

A retrospective observation was conducted to study the clinical data of children with RMPP (1–14 years old) during acute infection. According to whether there is BO observed in the bronchoscope, children were divided into BO and the non-BO groups. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to construct the nomogram model.

Results

One hundred and forty-one children with RMPP were finally included, of which 65 (46.0%) children with RMPP were complicated by BO. According to the multivariate logistic regression analysis, WBC count, ALB level, consolidation range exceeding 2/3 of lung lobes, timing of macrolides, glucocorticoids or fiber bronchoscopy and plastic bronchitis were independent influencing factors for the occurrence of BO and were incorporated into the nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) value of nomogram was 0.899 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.848–0.950). The Hosmer–Lemeshow test showed good calibration of the nomogram (p = 0.692).

Conclusion

A nomogram model found by seven risk factor was successfully constructed and can use to early prediction of children with BO due to RMPP.

Study of factors related to recurrence within 30 days after pneumonia treatment for community-onset pneumonia

INTRODUCTION

It is not uncommon for patients hospitalized with pneumonia to experience an early relapse. Here, we investigated the factors related to pneumonia recurrence in Japan.

PURPOSE

We aimed to elucidate the factors related to early recurrence after completion of pneumonia treatment.

METHODS

We examined 696 patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia (NHCAP) who were admitted to our hospital between October 2010 and February 2018, excluding those who died during hospitalization. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the endpoint of recurrence within 30 days after the end of antibiotic treatment.

RESULTS

NHCAP, chronic lung disease and duration of antibiotic treatment were significant risk factors for recurrence of pneumonia within 30 days after antibiotic discontinuation. Aspiration pneumonia was not be a significant factor in the early recurrence of pneumonia.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term use of antimicrobials may be a risk factor in early recurrence of pneumonia.

A Scoring System for Predicting the Prognosis of Late-Onset Severe Pneumonia after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

Late-onset severe pneumonia (LOSP) is defined as severe pneumonia developing during the late phase of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Because of the high mortality in patients with LOSP, it is important to identify prognostic factors. In this study, we aimed to develop a risk score system with broad applicability that can help predict the risk of LOSP-associated mortality. We retrospectively analyzed 100 patients with LOSP after allo-HSCT between June 2009 and July 2017. The assessment variables included immune, nutritional, and metabolic parameters at the onset of LOSP. Of these 100 patients, 45 (45%) eventually died, and 55 (55%) were positive for organisms, most commonly viruses. In the multivariate analysis, higher monocyte count (≥0.20 × 10⁹/L versus <0.20 × 10⁹/L; P = .001), higher albumin level (≥30.5 g/L versus <30.5 g/L; P = .044), lower lactic dehydrogenase level (<250 U/L versus ≥250 U/L; P = .008) and lower blood urea nitrogen concentration (<7.2 mmol/L versus ≥7.2 mmol/L; P = .026) at the onset of LOSP were significantly associated with better 60-day survival. A risk score system based on the foregoing results showed that the probability of 60-day survival decreased with increasing risk factors, from 96.3% in the low-risk group to 49.1% in the intermediate-risk group and 12.5% in the high-risk group. Our results indicate that this scoring system using 4 variables can stratify patients with different probabilities of survival after LOSP, which suggests that patients' immune, nutritional, and metabolic status are crucial factors in determining outcome.

The prognostic value of serum albumin levels and respiratory rate for community-acquired pneumonia: A prospective, multi-center study

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a respiratory disease frequently requiring hospital admission, and a significant cause of death worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of clinical indicators. A prospective, multi-center study was conducted (January 2017-December 2018) where patient demographic and clinical data were recorded (N = 366). The 30-day mortality rate was 5.46%. Cox Regression analyses showed that serum albumin (ALB) and respiratory rate (RR) were independent prognostic variables for 30-day survival in patients with CAP. Albumin negatively correlated with the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and CURB-65 scores using Pearson and Spearman tests. Survival curves showed that a RR >24 breaths/min or ALB ≤30 g/L were associated with a significantly higher risk of mortality. The area-under-the-curve (AUC) for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with CAP was 0.762, 0.763, 0.790, and 0.784 for ALB, RR, PSI, and CURB-65, respectively. The AUC for the prediction of 30-day mortality using ALB combined with PSI, CURB-65 scores, and RR was 0.822 (95% CI 0.731-0.912), 0.847 (95% CI 0.755-0.938), and 0.847 (95% CI 0.738-0.955), respectively. Albumin and RR were found to be reliable prognostic factors for CAP. This combination showed equal predictive value when compared to adding ALB assessment to PSI and CURB-65 scores, which could improve their prognostic accuracy.

Prediction value of procalcitonin combining CURB-65 for 90-day mortality in community-acquired pneumonia

Background: Due to its high mortality rate, immediate and reliable severity assessment and accurate prediction of prognosis at hospital admission is critical for the management of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) patients.Methods: Consecutive patients with primary diagnosis of CAP and hospitalized at our hospital from January 2013 to December 2015 were screened for this retrospective study. Demographic information, clinical and laboratory examination, severity model scoring, and 90-day outcomes were studied. Area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was analyzed to compare the predictive value of different prognostic scoring methods.Results: 2099 CAP patients with a median age of 60 (IQR 44.0-73.0) years-old were included in this study. Median length of stay was 10 days (IQR 8.0-13.0). The all-cause 90-day mortality was found in 2.19% (46/2099) of all patients. PCT was identified as an independent predictor for the prognosis of CAP patients. CURB-65 in combination with PCT outperformed other predictive methods in 90-day mortality with the optimal AUC of 0.900 and Youden's Index of 0.706.Conclusions: PCT is a good marker for the assessment of severity and 90-day mortality of CAP patients. The combination of PCT and CURB-65 was more accurate than other prognostic models in predicting 90-day mortality.

Effect of albumin administration on outcomes in hypoalbuminemic patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (ALBUCAP): a prospective, randomized, phase III clinical controlled trial-a trial protocol

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains a leading cause of death worldwide, and hypoalbuminemia is associated with worse outcomes. However, it remains uncertain whether albumin administration could have any beneficial effects. We aim to assess whether the administration of albumin in hypoalbuminemic patients with CAP increases the proportion of clinically stable patients at day 5 compared with the standard of care alone.

Methods

This is a trial protocol for a superiority, non-blinded, multicenter, randomized, phase 3, interventional controlled clinical trial. The primary endpoint will be the proportion of clinical stable patients at day 5 (intention to treat), defined as those with stable vital signs for at least 24 h. The secondary endpoints will be time to clinical stability, duration of intravenous and total antibiotic treatment, length of hospital stay, intensive care unit admission, duration of mechanical ventilation and vasopressor treatment, adverse events, readmission within 30 days, and all-cause mortality. The trial has been approved by the Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency. The investigators commit to publish the data in peer-reviewed journals within a year of the study completion date. Subjects will be recruited from three Spanish hospitals over a planned enrolment period of 2 years. A follow-up visit will be performed 1 month after discharge. We have estimated the need for a sample size of 360 patients at a two-sided 5% alpha-level with a power of 80% based on intention to treat. Eligible participants must be hospitalized, hypoalbuminemic (≤ 30 g/L), non-immunosuppressed, adults, and diagnosed with CAP. They will be randomly assigned (1:1) to receive standard care plus albumin (20 g in 100 mL) every 12 h for 4 days or standard care alone.

Discussion

If this randomized trial confirms the hypothesis, it should lead to a change in current clinical practice for the management of hypoalbuminemic patients with CAP.

Trial registration

European Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT) 2018-003117-18. Registered on 12 April 2019. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04071041. Registered on 27 August 2019

Splenic volume in pneumococcal pneumonia patients is associated with disease severity and mortality

Splenectomy is a risk factor for serious pneumococcal disease like overwhelming post-splenectomy infection (OPSI). In healthy individuals with small spleen, fulminant pneumococcal infection similar to OPSI has been reported. Furthermore, it is reported that small spleen was associated with severe pneumococcal infection patients treated in an intensive care unit. However, the association between the small spleen and pneumococcal pneumonia was not investigated enough. We retrospectively analyzed patients with pneumococcal pneumonia who underwent computed tomography examination with measurement of the splenic volume at Harasanshin Hospital between 2004 and 2019. Data on their background characteristics, laboratory findings, and clinical courses were collected. 413 patients were included in the final analysis. The splenic volume was significantly lower in the moderate (P < 0.001), severe (P < 0.00005), and extremely severe (P < 0.001) pneumonia groups compared with the mild pneumonia group. Furthermore, the splenic volume was significantly lower in patients died within 30 days of pneumonia treatment (median of 73.49 versus 110.77 cm³, P < 0.005) or during hospitalization (median of 71.69 versus 111.01 cm³, P < 0.0005). Splenic volume <40 cm³ was significantly associated with mortality within 30 days and total hospital mortality as a risk factor in univariate analysis. Splenic volume <40 cm³ was an independent risk factor for mortality within 30 days (odds ratio: 5.0, 95% confidence interval: 1.2-21.1, P < 0.05) and total hospital mortality (odds ratio: 7.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.8-30.6, P < 0.01) in multivariate logistic regression analysis. These results suggest that small spleen is a risk factor for severity and mortality of pneumococcal pneumonia.

Prognostic factors in nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia (NHCAP) is a category of healthcare-associated pneumonia modified for the healthcare system in Japan. To date, only a few studies have examined the prognostic factors of NHCAP in a prospective cohort. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic factors related to 30-day mortality in patients with NHCAP by analyzing prospective data.

METHODS

We analyzed patients hospitalized for NHCAP who were enrolled between October 2010 and February 2017. Age, sex, comorbidities, vital signs and laboratory findings were used as prognostic variables. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Of 817 NHCAP patients identified, the mean age was 78.0 ± 11.1 years, 580 (71.0%) were men and 30-day mortality was 13.1% (107/817). On multivariate analysis, male sex (odds ratio [OR]: 2.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-3.63), malignancy (OR: 2.35, 95%CI: 1.38-4.01), performance status (PS) (OR: 1.55, 95%CI: 1.23-1.96), body temperature (OR: 0.77, 95%CI: 0.61-0.97), heart rate (OR: 1.02, 95%CI: 1.01-1.03), respiratory rate (OR: 1.04, 95%CI: 1.01-1.08), serum albumin (Alb) (OR: 0.45, 95%CI: 0.30-0.66) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR: 1.02, 95%CI: 1.01-1.03) were significantly related to 30-day mortality. On the other hand, the risk factors for involvement by drug-resistant pathogens predicted a better prognosis (OR: 0.39, 95%CI: 0.19-0.82).

CONCLUSIONS

Male sex, malignancy, poor PS, hypothermia, tachycardia, tachypnea, low serum Alb and high BUN are worse prognostic factors. Thus, the risk of drug-resistant pathogens is not necessarily related to poor prognosis.

Age, Pulse, Urea and Albumin (APUA) Model: A Tool for Predicting in-Hospital Mortality of Community-Acquired Pneumonia Adapted for Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop a tool for predicting in-hospital mortality of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM).

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted on 531 CAP patients with T2DM at The First Hospital of Qinhuangdao. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Variables to develop the nomogram were selected using multiple logistic regression analysis. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Calibration was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration plot.

RESULTS

Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that age, pulse, urea and albumin (APUA) were independent risk predictors. Based on these results, we developed a nomogram (APUA model) for predicting in-hospital mortality of CAP in T2DM patients. In the training set, the area under the curve (AUC) of the APUA model was 0.814 (95% CI: 0.770-0.853), which was higher than the AUCs of albumin alone, CURB-65 and Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) class (p<0.05). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (χ ²=5.298, p=0.808) and calibration plot (p=0.802) showed excellent agreement between the predicted possibility and the actual observation in the APUA model. The results of the validation set were similar to those of the training set.

CONCLUSION

The APUA model is a simple and accurate tool for predicting in-hospital mortality of CAP, adapted for patients with T2DM. The predictive performance of the APUA model was better than CURB-65 and PSI class.

Blood albumin as a prognostic factor among unselected medically treated inpatients

Aim: The aim of this study is to determine the prognostic value of blood albumin (BA) in an unselected population of inpatients. Materials & methods: We performed prospective analysis of the medical documentation of 7279 patients hospitalized between July 2014 and September 2017. Results: Individuals with BA ≥3.35 mg/dl had significantly lower risk of in-hospital death (odds ratio [OR]: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.19-0.27; p < 0.001) and 14-day readmission (OR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.55-0.77; p < 0.0001). BA concentration was the strongest favorable factor predicting inpatient survival in a Cox hazard regression model (OR: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.36-0.50; p < 0.001), did not correlate with body mass index and actual-to-ideal bodyweight ratio and was strongly affected by numerous non-nutrient factors. Conclusion: BA concentration showed similar or better predictive and diagnostic power in relation to all-cause in-hospital mortality and 14-day readmission among inpatients than selected multifactorial scores.

Procalcitonin-Guided Antibiotic Discontinuation Might Shorten the Duration of Antibiotic Treatment Without Increasing Pneumonia Recurrence

BACKGROUND

The optimal duration of antibiotic treatment has not been established for pneumonia patients. Some investigators reported procalcitonin (PCT)-guided antimicrobial stewardship reduces the duration of antibiotic use without increasing mortality in pneumonia patients.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We prospectively enrolled hospitalized community-acquired pneumonia or healthcare-associated pneumonia patients with PCT levels >0.20 ng/mL on admission, who were admitted between 2014 and 2017. PCT levels were measured on days 5, 8 and 11 and every 3 days thereafter if needed. Physicians were encouraged and strongly encouraged to discontinue antibiotics when PCT levels decreased below 0.20 ng/mL and 0.10 ng/mL, respectively. Those admitted between 2010 and 2014 were included in the study as historical controls. Primary endpoints were duration of antibiotic treatment and recurrence of pneumonia within 30 days after antibiotic discontinuation.

RESULTS

The PCT-guided and control groups consisted of 116 patients each. Background factors including pneumonia severity and PCT levels did not differ between the 2 groups. Median duration of antibiotic treatment was 8.0 and 11 days in the PCT-guided and control groups, respectively (P < 0.001). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that PCT-guided antibiotic discontinuation (partial regression coefficient [PRC] -1.9319, P < 0.001), PCT (PRC 0.1501, P = 0.0059) and albumin (PRC -1.4398, P = 0.0096) were significantly related to duration of antibiotic treatment. Pneumonia recurrence within 30 days after antibiotic discontinuation was not statistically different between the 2 groups (4.3% vs. 6.0%, P = 0.5541).

CONCLUSIONS

PCT-guided antibiotic discontinuation might be useful for shortening the duration of antibiotic treatment without increasing pneumonia recurrence.

Procalcitonin is not an independent predictor of 30-day mortality, albeit predicts pneumonia severity in patients with pneumonia acquired outside the hospital

Background

Procalcitonin (PCT) is a useful marker for pneumonia. However, its clinical usefulness in elderly patients has not been studied extensively. This study aimed to assess the relationship between PCT and prognosis and pneumonia severity in elderly patients with pneumonia acquired outside the hospital.

Methods

Data considered relevant to pneumonia severity and prognosis were retrospectively obtained from clinical charts of all patients with pneumonia who were admitted to our hospital from 2010 to 2017. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality in elderly patients (aged ≥75 years), and the relationship between PCT levels and pneumonia severity, as determined by the pneumonia severity index (PSI) was also examined.

Results

Data were collected from 667 patients, of which 436 were elderly patients. Multivariate and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that albumin, body mass index, and PSI class rather than PCT are important factors related to 30-day mortality in elderly patients. PCT was also not an independent prognostic factor in younger patients. PCT levels significantly differed by pneumonia severity (mild, moderate, and severe) in both younger (p < 0.001) and elderly (p < 0.0001) patients, with levels increasing as severity increased. In contrast, C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and white blood cell counts did not significantly differ by pneumonia severity in younger and elderly patients. A subgroup analysis focused on Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia revealed that PCT levels differed by severity in elderly patients (p = 0.03), with levels increasing as severity increased.

Conclusion

PCT was not an independent predictor of 30-day mortality in both of elderly and younger patients. PCT levels, but not CRP levels, significantly increased with increasing pneumonia severity in younger and elderly patients, although the degree of increase tended to be lower in elderly patients compared to younger patients for the same severity. PCT levels also significantly increased with increasing pneumonia severity in elderly patients with Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia.

Utility of the Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment in Japanese patients with nursing- and healthcare-associated pneumonia

AIM

To clarify the utility of sepsis evaluation using the Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) tool in addition to the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI); age, dehydration, respiration, orientation and blood pressure (A-DROP) index; and immunodeficiency, respiration, orientation, age and dehydration (I-ROAD) scoring systems, and risk factor evaluation of potentially drug-resistant (PDR) pathogens are suggested in the 2017 guidelines for pneumonia of the Japanese Respiratory Society in nursing- and healthcare-associated pneumonia patients.

METHODS

We included 289 hospitalized nursing- and healthcare-associated pneumonia patients between April 2016 and March 2017, and investigated the ability of PSI, A-DROP, I-ROAD and qSOFA to predict pneumonia-related mortality. We also evaluated the associations among the risk factors for PDR pathogens, the detection ratio of PDR pathogens and pneumonia-related mortality.

RESULTS

The mortality rate of pneumonia during hospitalization was 6.9% (20/289). The area under the curve for pneumonia-related mortality predicted using PSI, A-DROP, I-ROAD and qSOFA was 0.697 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.80), 0.63 (95% CI 0.51-0.76), 0.61 (95% CI 0.52-0.70) and 0.701 (95% CI 0.59-0.81), respectively. In addition, higher areas under the curve were observed for pneumonia-related mortality predicted according to a combination of PSI and hypoalbuminemia (<2.5 g/dL) (0.75, 95% CI 0.64-0.86), and qSOFA and hypoalbuminemia (0.74, 95% CI 0.62-0.86) than for PSI and qSOFA alone. No significant associations were observed among the risk factors for PDR pathogens, the detection ratios of PDR pathogens and pneumonia-related mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

qSOFA and the combination of qSOFA and hypoalbuminemia might be simple and useful evaluation tools for predicting pneumonia-related mortality in nursing- and healthcare-associated pneumonia patients. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 177-183.