Comparison of outward transmission potential between vaccinated and partially vaccinated or unvaccinated individuals with the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant infection

Comparison of secondary attack rate and viable virus shedding between patients with SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants: A prospective cohort study

There are limited data comparing the transmission rates and kinetics of viable virus shedding of the Omicron variant to those of the Delta variant. We compared these rates in hospitalized patients infected with Delta and Omicron variants. We prospectively enrolled adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to a tertiary care hospital in South Korea between September 2021 and May 2022. Secondary attack rates were calculated by epidemiologic investigation, and daily saliva samples were collected to evaluate viral shedding kinetics. Genomic and subgenomic SARS-CoV-2 RNA was measured by PCR, and virus culture was performed from daily saliva samples. A total of 88 patients with COVID-19 who agreed to daily sampling and were interviewed, were included. Of the 88 patients, 48 (59%) were infected with Delta, and 34 (41%) with Omicron; a further 5 patients gave undetectable or inconclusive RNA PCR results and 1 was suspected of being coinfected with both variants. Omicron group had a higher secondary attack rate (31% [38/124] vs. 7% [34/456], p < 0.001). Survival analysis revealed that shorter viable virus shedding period was observed in Omicron variant compared with Delta variant (median 4, IQR [1-7], vs. 8.5 days, IQR [5-12 days], p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis revealed that moderate-to-critical disease severity (HR: 1.96), and immunocompromised status (HR: 2.17) were independent predictors of prolonged viral shedding, whereas completion of initial vaccine series or first booster-vaccinated status (HR: 0.49), and Omicron infection (HR: 0.44) were independently associated with shorter viable virus shedding. Patients with Omicron infections had higher transmission rates but shorter periods of transmissible virus shedding than those with Delta infections.

Clinical scoring system to predict viable viral shedding in patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends 5-10 days of isolation for patients with COVID-19, depending on symptom duration and severity. However, in clinical practice, an individualized approach is required. We thus developed a clinical scoring system to predict viable viral shedding.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to a hospital or community isolation facility between February 2020 and January 2022. Daily dense respiratory samples were obtained, and genomic RNA viral load assessment and viral culture were performed. Clinical predictors of negative viral culture results were identified using survival analysis and multivariable analysis.

RESULTS

Among 612 samples from 121 patients including 11 immunocompromised patients (5 organ transplant recipients, 5 with hematologic malignancy, and 1 receiving immunosuppressive agents) with varying severity, 154 (25%) revealed positive viral culture results. Multivariable analysis identified symptom onset day, viral copy number, disease severity, organ transplant recipient, and vaccination status as independent predictors of culture-negative rate. We developed a 4-factor predictive model based on viral copy number (-3 to 3 points), disease severity (1 point for moderate to critical disease), organ transplant recipient (2 points), and vaccination status (-2 points for fully vaccinated). Predicted culture-negative rates were calculated through the symptom onset day and the score of the day the sample was collected.

CONCLUSIONS

Our clinical scoring system can provide the objective probability of a culture-negative state in a patient with COVID-19 and is potentially useful for implementing personalized de-isolation policies beyond the simple symptom-based isolation strategy.