High-dimensional multivariate posterior consistency under global–local shrinkage priors

A Bayesian multivariate hierarchical model for developing a treatment benefit index using mixed types of outcomes

BACKGROUND

Precision medicine has led to the development of targeted treatment strategies tailored to individual patients based on their characteristics and disease manifestations. Although precision medicine often focuses on a single health outcome for individualized treatment decision rules (ITRs), relying only on a single outcome rather than all available outcomes information leads to suboptimal data usage when developing optimal ITRs.

METHODS

To address this limitation, we propose a Bayesian multivariate hierarchical model that leverages the wealth of correlated health outcomes collected in clinical trials. The approach jointly models mixed types of correlated outcomes, facilitating the "borrowing of information" across the multivariate outcomes, and results in a more accurate estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects compared to using single regression models for each outcome. We develop a treatment benefit index, which quantifies the relative benefit of the experimental treatment over the control treatment, based on the proposed multivariate outcome model.

RESULTS

We demonstrate the strengths of the proposed approach through extensive simulations and an application to an international Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatment trial. Simulation results indicate that the proposed method reduces the occurrence of erroneous treatment decisions compared to a single regression model for a single health outcome. Additionally, the sensitivity analyses demonstrate the robustness of the model across various study scenarios. Application of the method to the COVID-19 trial exhibits improvements in estimating the individual-level treatment efficacy (indicated by narrower credible intervals for odds ratios) and optimal ITRs.

CONCLUSION

The study jointly models mixed types of outcomes in the context of developing ITRs. By considering multiple health outcomes, the proposed approach can advance the development of more effective and reliable personalized treatment.

Improving Individualized Treatment Decisions: A Bayesian Multivariate Hierarchical Model for Developing a Treatment Benefit Index using Mixed Types of Outcomes

Background

Precision medicine has led to the development of targeted treatment strategies tailored to individual patients based on their characteristics and disease manifestations. Although precision medicine often focuses on a single health outcome for individualized treatment decision rules (ITRs), relying only on a single outcome rather than all available outcomes information leads to suboptimal data usage when developing optimal ITRs.

Methods

To address this limitation, we propose a Bayesian multivariate hierarchical model that leverages the wealth of correlated health outcomes collected in clinical trials. The approach jointly models mixed types of correlated outcomes, facilitating the "borrowing of information" across the multivariate outcomes, and results in a more accurate estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects compared to using single regression models for each outcome. We develop a treatment benefit index, which quantifies the relative treatment benefit of the experimental treatment over the control treatment, based on the proposed multivariate outcome model.

Results

We demonstrate the strengths of the proposed approach through extensive simulations and an application to an international Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatment trial. Simulation results indicate that the proposed method reduces the occurrence of erroneous treatment decisions compared to a single regression model for a single health outcome. Additionally, the sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of the model across various study scenarios. Application of the method to the COVID-19 trial exhibits improvements in estimating the individual-level treatment efficacy (indicated by narrower credible intervals for odds ratios) and optimal ITRs.

Conclusion

The study jointly models mixed types of outcomes in the context of developing ITRs. By considering multiple health outcomes, the proposed approach can advance the development of more effective and reliable personalized treatment.

Beyond the single-outcome approach: A comparison of outcome-wide analysis methods for exposome research

Outcome-wide analysis can offer several benefits, including increased power to detect weak signals and the ability to identify exposures with multiple effects on health, which may be good targets for preventive measures. Recently, advanced statistical multivariate techniques for outcome-wide analysis have been developed, but they have been rarely applied to exposome analysis. In this work, we provide an overview of a selection of methods that are well-suited for outcome-wide exposome analysis and are implemented in the R statistical software. Our work brings together six different methods presenting innovative solutions for typical problems arising from outcome-wide approaches in the context of the exposome, including dependencies among outcomes, high dimensionality, mixed-type outcomes, missing data records, and confounding effects. The identified methods can be grouped into four main categories: regularized multivariate regression techniques, multi-task learning approaches, dimensionality reduction approaches, and bayesian extensions of the multivariate regression framework. Here, we compare each technique presenting its main rationale, strengths, and limitations, and provide codes and guidelines for their application to exposome data. Additionally, we apply all selected methods to a real exposome dataset from the Human Early-Life Exposome (HELIX) project, demonstrating their suitability for exposome research. Although the choice of the best method will always depend on the challenges to be faced in each application, for an exposome-like analysis we find dimensionality reduction and bayesian methods such as reduced rank regression (RRR) or multivariate bayesian shrinkage priors (MBSP) particularly useful, given their ability to deal with critical issues such as collinearity, high-dimensionality, missing data or quantification of uncertainty.

Bayesian Nonlinear Models for Repeated Measurement Data: An Overview, Implementation, and Applications

Nonlinear mixed effects models have become a standard platform for analysis when data is in the form of continuous and repeated measurements of subjects from a population of interest, while temporal profiles of subjects commonly follow a nonlinear tendency. While frequentist analysis of nonlinear mixed effects models has a long history, Bayesian analysis of the models has received comparatively little attention until the late 1980s, primarily due to the time-consuming nature of Bayesian computation. Since the early 1990s, Bayesian approaches for the models began to emerge to leverage rapid developments in computing power, and have recently received significant attention due to (1) superiority to quantify the uncertainty of parameter estimation; (2) utility to incorporate prior knowledge into the models; and (3) flexibility to match exactly the increasing complexity of scientific research arising from diverse industrial and academic fields. This review article presents an overview of modeling strategies to implement Bayesian approaches for the nonlinear mixed effects models, ranging from designing a scientific question out of real-life problems to practical computations.