Habitat suitability modelling to improve conservation status of two critically endangered endemic Afromontane forest bird species in Taita Hills, Kenya

Weak latitudinal trends in reproductive traits of Afromontane forest trees

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Is the increase in species diversity patterns towards lower latitudes linked to reproductive traits? Plant reproductive organs influence reproductive isolation and hence species divergence. Abiotic differences between temperate and tropical regions can also directly impact on plant reproductive traits. Here we provide a novel overview of southern hemisphere, Afromontane forest tree taxonomical patterns and ask whether reproductive traits relate to latitude, while accounting for environmental (tree height) and evolutionary (biogeographical affinity) selective forces.

METHODS

We compiled a novel dataset with (1) flower colour, size and pollination syndrome and (2) fruit colour, size and dispersal syndrome for 331 tree species found in six Afromontane forest regions. We categorized each species into latitudinal distribution using these six regions, spanning the southern Cape (34º S) to Mount Kenya (0º S). Additionally, we gathered maximum tree height (m) for each species and determined the global distribution of all 196 tree genera (Afrotropical, Palaeotropical or Pantropical).

KEY RESULTS

Species, genera and families showed a general decrease in richness away from tropical and subtropical forests towards warm temperate forests. Southern Afrotemperate forests (the furthest south) had the highest tree endemism. There was no relationship between latitude and the reproductive traits tested here. Biogeographical affinity related to fruit colour and dispersal syndrome, with palaeotropical genera showing relative increases in black-purple fruit colour compared with pantropical genera, and palaeotropical genera showing relative increases in biotic seed dispersal compared with Afrotropical genera, which showed higher relative abiotic seed dispersal. Taller trees had a higher chance to be wind or insect pollinated (compared with bird pollinated) and had larger fruits.

CONCLUSIONS

Latitude explained patterns in Afromontane tree taxonomic diversity; however, tree reproductive traits did not relate to latitude. We suggest that phylogenetic conservatism or convergence, or both, explain the reported patterns.

Modeling habitat suitability for the lesser-known populations of endangered mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni) in the Arsi and Ahmar Mountains, Ethiopia

Habitat suitability models have become a valuable tool for wildlife conservation and management, and are frequently used to better understand the range and habitat requirements of rare and endangered species. In this study, we employed two habitat suitability modeling techniques, namely Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) and Maximum Entropy (Maxent) models, to identify potential suitable habitats for the endangered mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni) and environmental factors affecting its distribution in the Arsi and Ahmar Mountains of Ethiopia. Presence points, used to develop our habitat suitability models, were recorded from fecal pellet counts (n = 130) encountered along 196 randomly established transects in 2015 and 2016. Predictor variables used in our models included major landcover types, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), greenness and wetness tasseled cap vegetation indices, elevation, and slope. Area Under the Curve model evaluations for BRT and Maxent were 0.96 and 0.95, respectively, demonstrating high performance. Both models were then ensembled into a single binary output highlighting an area of agreement. Our results suggest that 1864 km2 (9.1%) of the 20,567 km2 study area is suitable habitat for the mountain nyala with land cover types, elevation, NDVI, and slope of the terrain being the most important variables for both models. Our results highlight the extent to which habitat loss and fragmentation have disconnected mountain nyala subpopulations. Our models demonstrate the importance of further protecting suitable habitats for mountain nyala to ensure the species' conservation.

Environmental Niche Modelling Predicts a Contraction in the Potential Distribution of Two Boreal Owl Species under Different Climate Scenarios

Studying current and future geographic distribution is essential for conserving endangered species such as the Boreal Owl and Eurasian Pygmy Owl. The main aim of this study was to determine the potential distribution of both species in the Balkan Peninsula by using spatial distribution models (SDMs) in MaxEnt. We used data from field surveys, the scientific and grey literature, and an online database. We considered the current time and two future periods, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. For future periods, we included different climate scenarios (SSP 126, 245, 370, and 585) in studying the potential geographic distribution of both species. We identified two types of potential future refugia for species: in situ and ex situ. Our study shows the highly suitable area for the Boreal Owl increased during the 2041-2060 period compared with the current area in all scenarios, except in SSP 585. However, during the 2061-2080 period, the highly suitable areas contracted. For the Eurasian Pygmy Owl, highly suitable areas decreased during 2041-2060, but during the 2061-2080 period, it was larger than the current area. Our study is of importance for conservation and preserving areas of potential distribution and refugia for Boreal and Eurasian Pygmy Owls in the face of climate change.