Life expectancy of people who are dependent on opioids: A cohort study in New South Wales, Australia

A qualitative study of experiences with physical activity among people receiving opioid agonist therapy

BACKGROUND

Physical or mental health comorbidities are common among people with substance use disorders undergoing opioid agonist therapy. As both a preventive and treatment strategy, exercise offers various health benefits for several conditions. Exercise interventions to people with substance use disorders receiving opioid agonist therapy are limited. This study aims to explore experiences with physical activity, perceived barriers, and facilitators among people receiving opioid agonist therapy.

METHOD

Fourteen qualitative interviews were conducted with individuals receiving opioid agonist therapy in outpatient clinics in Western Norway.

RESULTS

Most were males in the age range 30 to 60 years. Participants had diverse and long-term substance use histories, and most received buprenorphine-based opioid agonist therapy. The identified themes were (1) Physical limitations: Participants experienced health-related problems like breathing difficulties, pain, and reduced physical function. (2) Social dynamics: Social support was essential for participating in physical activities and many argued for group exercises, but some were concerned about the possibility of meeting persons influenced by substances in a group setting, fearing temptations to use substances. (3) Shift in focus: As participants felt the weight of the health burden, their preference for activities shifted from sports aiming for "adrenaline" to a health promoting focus. (4) COVID-19's impact on exercise: because of the pandemic, group activities were suspended, and participants described it as challenging to resume. (5) Implementation preferences in clinics: Not interfering with opioid medication routines was reported to be essential.

CONCLUSION

This study offers valuable insights for the development of customized exercise interventions aimed at enhancing the health and well-being of patients undergoing opioid agonist therapy. These findings underscore the significance of addressing social dynamics, overcoming physical limitations, and implementing a practical and effective exercise regimen.

Healthy eating among people on opioid agonist therapy: a qualitative study of patients' experiences and perspectives

People with substance use disorders often have unhealthy diets, high in sweets and processed foods but low in nutritious items like fruits and vegetables, increasing noncommunicable disease risks. This study investigates healthy eating perceptions and barriers among individuals with opioid use disorder undergoing opioid agonist therapy. Interviews with 14 participants at opioid agonist therapy clinics in Western Norway, using a semi-structured guide and systematic text condensation for analysis, reveal that most participants view their diet as inadequate and express a desire to improve for better health. Barriers to healthy eating included oral health problems, smoking habits, and limited social relations, while economic factors were less of a concern for the participants. Participants did find healthy eating easier when they were in social settings. This study underscores the importance of understanding and addressing these barriers and facilitators to foster healthier eating patterns in this population, potentially enhancing overall health and well-being.

Liver stiffness and associated risk factors among people with a history of injecting drugs: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Persons with opioid use disorders (OUD) and persons with substance use disorders (SUD) who inject substances have a reduced life expectancy of up to 25 years compared with the general population. Chronic liver diseases are a substantial cause of this. Screening strategies based on liver stiffness measurements (LSM) may facilitate early detection, timely intervention, and treatment of liver disease. This study aims to investigate the extent of chronic liver disease measured with transient elastography and the association between LSM and various risk factors, including substance use patterns, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, alcohol use, body mass index, age, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol among people with OUD or with SUD who inject substances.

METHODS

Data was collected from May 2017 to March 2022 in a cohort of 676 persons from Western Norway. The cohort was recruited from two populations: Persons receiving opioid agonist therapy (OAT) (81% of the sample) or persons with SUD injecting substances but not receiving OAT. All participants were assessed at least once with transient elastography. A linear mixed model was performed to assess the impact of risk factors such as HCV infection, alcohol use, lifestyle-associated factors, and substance use on liver stiffness at baseline and over time. Baseline was defined as the time of the first liver stiffness measurement. The results are presented as coefficients (in kilopascal (kPa)) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

At baseline, 12% (n = 83) of the study sample had LSM suggestive of advanced chronic liver disease (LSM ≥ 10 kPa). Advanced age (1.0 kPa per 10 years increments, 95% CI: 0.68;1.3), at least weekly alcohol use (1.3, 0.47;2.1), HCV infection (1.2, 0.55;1.9), low HDL cholesterol level (1.4, 0.64;2.2), and higher body mass index (0.25 per increasing unit, 0.17;0.32) were all significantly associated with higher LSM at baseline. Compared with persistent chronic HCV infection, a resolved HCV infection predicted a yearly reduction of LSM (-0.73, -1.3;-0.21) from baseline to the following liver stiffness measurement.

CONCLUSIONS

More than one-tenth of the participants in this study had LSM suggestive of advanced chronic liver disease. It underscores the need for addressing HCV infection and reducing lifestyle-related liver risk factors, such as metabolic health factors and alcohol consumption, to prevent the advancement of liver fibrosis or cirrhosis in this particular population.

Mortality risk and causes of death among people who use opioids in a take-home naloxone cohort

BACKGROUND

People who use opioids (PWUO) have an excess mortality from a range of causes. The cumulative effect of behavioral, social, and health risk factors complicates the interpretation of the effects of suitable interventions. This study explores mortality causes among a cohort of PWUO in the take-home naloxone (THN) program.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of PWUO who received THN between 2015 and 2023. Participant data was linked with death registry data. Crude mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for all causes, internal causes, and accidental opioid overdoses (AOOs). In addition to age and gender, risk factors like main route of administration, polydrug use, self-experienced overdoses, and using while alone were fitted in a Cox Regression model to explore factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

The 2194 participants had a considerably higher mortality ratio for all causes investigated when compared to the general population (SMR=10.9, 95 % CI = 9.3,12.6). AOOs were the most prevalent cause of death (49 %). Those who reported frequent opioid use while alone had an elevated risk of dying of 2.6 (95 % CI = 1.1,6.4) compared to those who never used while alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Frequent opioid use while alone was associated with elevated mortality risk, supporting the importance of overdose prevention education with naloxone distribution, and additional efforts to improve environmental and social areas for safer drug-use practices among PWUO. The variety of mortality causes found in this study illustrates the need for multifaceted and targeted interventions for people at risk of overdosing.

Placental cytochrome P450 methylomes in infants exposed to prenatal opioids: exploring the effects of neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome on health horizons

Background: Neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome (NOWS), arises due to increased opioid use during pregnancy. Cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes play a pivotal role in metabolizing a wide range of substances in the human body, including opioids, other drugs, toxins, and endogenous compounds. The association between CYP gene methylation and opioid effects is unexplored and it could offer promising insights. Objective: To investigate the impact of prenatal opioid exposure on disrupted CYPs in infants and their anticipated long-term clinical implications. Study Design: DNA methylation levels of CYP genes were analyzed in a cohort of 96 placental tissues using Illumina Infinium MethylationEPIC (850 k) BeadChips. This involved three groups of placental tissues: 32 from mothers with infants exposed to opioids prenatally requiring pharmacologic treatment for NOWS, 32 from mothers with prenatally opioid-exposed infants not needing NOWS treatment, and 32 from unexposed control mothers. Results: The study identified 20 significantly differentially methylated CpG sites associated with 17 distinct CYP genes, with 14 CpGs showing reduced methylation across 14 genes (CYP19A1, CYP1A2, CYP4V2, CYP1B1, CYP24A1, CYP26B1, CYP26C1, CYP2C18, CYP2C9, CYP2U1, CYP39A1, CYP2R1, CYP4Z1, CYP2D7P1 and), while 8 exhibited hypermethylation (CYP51A1, CYP26B1, CYP2R1, CYP2U1, CYP4X1, CYP1A2, CYP2W1, and CYP4V2). Genes such as CYP1A2, CYP26B1, CYP2R1, CYP2U1, and CYP4V2 exhibited both increased and decreased methylation. These genes are crucial for metabolizing eicosanoids, fatty acids, drugs, and diverse substances. Conclusion: The study identified profound methylation changes in multiple CYP genes in the placental tissues relevant to NOWS. This suggests that disruption of DNA methylation patterns in CYP transcripts might play a role in NOWS and may serve as valuable biomarkers, suggesting a future pathway for personalized treatment. Further research is needed to confirm these findings and explore their potential for diagnosis and treatment.

Opioid agonist treatment in transition: A cross-country comparison between Austria, Germany and Switzerland

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

OAT is a well developed and successful treatment strategy for opioid dependent patients in Europe. It has significantly contributed to the fight against the HIV and HCV pandemics, leading to an increased life expectancy in this population. Building on the OAT experiences in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland and their models of care, the objective of this study is to analyse experiences and changes in patient structures to identify necessary adaptations for the system of care.

METHODS

We analysed national register-based data from patients receiving OAT during the period spanning from 2010 to 2020 in Austria, Germany (cases), and Switzerland. We examined and compared OAT policies and practice at national levels through a review of literature and publicly available policy documents.

RESULTS

Across these three countries, the life expectancy of OAT patients increased substantially. The mean age increased from 33.0 in 2010 to 39.1 in 2020 in Austria, from 35.6 years to 41.5 years in Germany (cases), and from 39.6 to 47.1 in Switzerland, respectively. In all three countries, the percentage of patients/cases aged 60 years and older increased more than tenfold between 2010 and 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

Integrated support models, reliable care structures, internationally comparable high treatment coverage, flexible prescribing practices, and a wide range of available OAT medications are successful strategies. The experiences in these countries indicate that it is possible to address the complex and chronic nature of opioid dependence and its concurrent mental and physical health challenges, resulting in an increasing life expectancy of OAT patients.

Life expectancy and years of potential life lost in people with mental disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Mental disorders are associated with premature mortality. There is increasing research examining life expectancy and years-of-potential-life-lost (YPLL) to quantify the disease impact on survival in people with mental disorders. We aimed to systematically synthesize studies to estimate life expectancy and YPLL in people with any and specific mental disorders across a broad spectrum of diagnoses.

Methods

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched Embase, MEDLINE, PsychINFO, WOS from inception to July 31, 2023, for published studies reporting life expectancy and/or YPLL for mental disorders. Criteria for study inclusion were: patients of all ages with any mental disorders; reported data on life expectancy and/or YPLL of a mental-disorder cohort relative to the general population or a comparison group without mental disorders; and cohort studies. We excluded non-cohort studies, publications containing non-peer-reviewed data or those restricted to population subgroups. Survival estimates, i.e., life expectancy and YPLL, were pooled (based on summary data extracted from the included studies) using random-effects models. Subgroup analyses and random-effects meta-regression analyses were performed to explore sources of heterogeneity. Risk-of-bias assessment was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022321190).

Findings

Of 35,865 studies identified in our research, 109 studies from 24 countries or regions including 12,171,909 patients with mental disorders were eligible for analysis (54 for life expectancy and 109 for YPLL). Pooled life expectancy for mental disorders was 63.85 years (95% CI 62.63-65.06; I2 = 100.0%), and pooled YPLL was 14.66 years (95% CI 13.88-15.98; I2 = 100.0%). Disorder-stratified analyses revealed that substance-use disorders had the shortest life expectancy (57.07 years [95% CI 54.47-59.67]), while neurotic disorders had the longest lifespan (69.51 years [95% CI 67.26-71.76]). Substance-use disorders exhibited the greatest YPLL (20.38 years [95% CI 18.65-22.11]), followed by eating disorders (16.64 years [95% CI 7.45-25.82]), schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (15.37 years [95% CI 14.18-16.55]), and personality disorders (15.35 years [95% CI 12.80-17.89]). YPLLs attributable to natural and unnatural deaths in mental disorders were 4.38 years (95% CI 3.15-5.61) and 8.11 years (95% CI 6.10-10.13; suicide: 8.31 years [95% CI 6.43-10.19]), respectively. Stratified analyses by study period suggested that the longevity gap persisted over time. Significant cross-study heterogeneity was observed.

Interpretation

Mental disorders are associated with substantially reduced life expectancy, which is transdiagnostic in nature, encompassing a wide range of diagnoses. Implementation of comprehensive and multilevel intervention approaches is urgently needed to rectify lifespan inequalities for people with mental disorders.

Funding

None.

A qualitative study on people with opioid use disorders' perspectives on smoking and smoking cessation interventions

Introduction

Smoking-related diseases are major contributors to disability and shorter life expectancy among opioid-dependent patients. Smoking prevalence is considerably higher for opioid-dependent persons than among the general population, and only a minority quit smoking in treatment settings. Studies show that pharmacological smoking cessation interventions have modest success rates. This study aimed to investigate patients' receiving opioid agonist therapy perspectives on factors affecting behavior and decisions related to smoking cessation, and their experiences with smoking cessation.

Methods

This is a qualitative study using semi-structured individual interviews. The participants were asked, among others, to elaborate on the participants' thoughts about smoking, previous attempts to quit tobacco use, and what could prompt a smoking cessation attempt. We analyzed the transcripts with systematic text condensation. The Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research and the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research guidelines were followed. Opioid-dependent patients receiving opioid agonist therapy in outpatient clinics were invited to participate using a purposive sampling method. In total, fourteen individuals participated in this study.

Results

We identified six themes which were: (1) reflections on how smoking affected decisions, (2) smoking and its impact on physical and mental health, (3) the economy as a motivator to stop smoking, (4) emotions, desires, and habits related to smoking, (5) knowledge of smoking, smoking cessation, and quit attempts, and (6) social factors influencing the participants' choices and activities. The participants were well informed about the consequences of smoking and had some knowledge and experience in quitting. The participants' pulmonary health was an important motivational factor for change. Withdrawal symptoms, anxiety, and fear of using other substances discouraged several from attempting to quit smoking. In contrast, social support from partners and access to meaningful activities were considered important factors for success. Few reported being offered help from health professionals to make a smoking cessation attempt.

Discussion

Experiencing social support, being encouraged to quit smoking, and patients' concerns for their physical health were important reasons for wanting to quit smoking. Smoking cessation interventions based on patient preferences and on the behavior change wheel may enable a higher success rate among patients receiving opioid agonist therapy.

The association between drug use and mortality in a norwegian prison cohort: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Elevated mortality rates are found among people who have experienced incarceration, even long after release from prison. The mechanisms related to this excess mortality are complex products of both individual and situational factors. The aim of this study was to describe all-cause and cause-specific mortality among people with a history of imprisonment, and to examine both individual and situational factors associated with mortality.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study we used baseline survey data from the Norwegian Offender Mental Health and Addiction (NorMA) study (N = 733) linked with data from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry during eight years of follow-up (2013-2021).

RESULTS

At end of follow-up, 56 persons (8%) of the cohort were deceased; 55% (n = 31) due to external causes such as overdoses or suicides, and 29% (n = 16) to internal causes such as cancer or lung disease. Having a score > 24 on the Drug Use Disorders Identification Test (DUDIT), indicating likely drug dependence was highly associated with external causes of death (OR 3.31, 95% CI 1.34-8.16), while having a job before baseline imprisonment had a protective effect on all-cause mortality (OR 0.51, ,95% CI 0.28-0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

High DUDIT score at baseline were highly associated with external causes of death, even years after the DUDIT screening was done. Screening incarcerated people using validated clinical tools, such as the DUDIT, together with initiation of appropriate treatment, may contribute to reduced mortality in this marginalized population.

Integration of smoking cessation into standard treatment for patients receiving opioid agonist therapy who are smoking tobacco: protocol for a randomised controlled trial (ATLAS4LAR)

BACKGROUND

About 85% of patients receiving opioid agonist therapy (OAT) for opioid dependence are smoking tobacco. Although smoke-related pulmonary diseases are significant contributors to morbidity and mortality, few smoking cessation interventions are evaluated within this group, and few OAT patients are offered smoking cessation as an integrated part of their addiction treatment. This study protocol describes an integrated smoking cessation intervention aimed at patients receiving OAT and smoking tobacco.

METHODS

This is a multicentre, randomised controlled clinical trial that will recruit 266 daily tobacco smoking patients receiving OAT in OAT outpatient clinics in Bergen and Stavanger, Norway. The patients randomised for the intervention arm will be offered smoking cessation therapy consisting of weekly brief behavioural interventions and prescription-free nicotine replacement products. In the control arm, patients will receive standard care without any added interventions related to smoking cessation. The smoking cessation intervention includes psychoeducational techniques with components from motivational interviewing, and nicotine replacement products such as nicotine lozenges, patches, and chewing gum. The duration of the intervention is 16 weeks, with the option of extending it by a further 8 weeks. The main outcomes are measured at 16 weeks after initiation of the intervention, and sustained effects are evaluated 1 year after intervention initiation. The primary outcome is smoking cessation verified by carbon monoxide (CO) levels or at least a 50% reduction in the number of cigarettes smoked. Secondary outcomes are changes in psychological well-being, biochemical inflammation markers, changes in physical health, quality of life, and fatigue.

DISCUSSION

Integration of other treatments to standard OAT care improves adherence and completion rates providing another rationale for integrated smoking cessation treatment. Thus, if integrated smoking cessation treatment is superior to standard care, this trial provides important information on further scale-up.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05290025. Registered on 22 March 2022.

Kamini, a little recognised source of illicit opioid: A case series of 12 patients

INTRODUCTION

This case series describes 12 patients who developed opioid use disorder after ingesting a prohibited, imported herbal product, Kamini, which contains Papaver somniferum. They appeared unaware of the risk of dependence from Kamini and most had struggled to manage their use for many months before presenting for treatment.

METHODS

After two cases were presented at a clinical meeting, a chart review was conducted of cases across four public opioid treatment clinics in south-east Queensland with about 1500 patients registered, identifying 10 further cases.

RESULTS

Twelve patients presented with features of opioid withdrawal, seeking treatment after use of Kamini for periods between 6 months and 8 years. Eleven patients were born in India. Nine patients stabilised on buprenorphine maintenance treatment, three of whom commenced long-acting injectable buprenorphine. One patient left after 1 day and subsequently began methadone treatment with a private prescriber. Two patients on smaller doses and shorter-term use undertook withdrawal with prescribed (off-label) trans-dermal buprenorphine. One patient, initially lost to follow-up, later stabilised on long-acting injectable buprenorphine. Reasons for presenting included supply shortages and financial distress during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Kamini represents an illicit source of non-prescription opioid in Australia. Although classified as an illegal import by the Therapeutic Goods Administration, patients confirm that it is readily available in Brisbane. Targeted efforts are needed to prevent further patients developing opioid dependence from use of Kamini and also to highlight treatment options for those seeking to stop Kamini use.

Organ pathologies detected post-mortem in patients receiving opioid agonist treatment for opioid use disorder: a nation-wide 2-year cross-sectional study

AIMS

To document organ pathologies detected post-mortem in patients receiving opioid agonist treatment for opioid use disorder and estimate the extent to which individual characteristics are associated with pulmonary, cardiovascular, hepatic or renal pathologies.

DESIGN

Two-year cross-sectional nation-wide study.

SETTING

Norway.

PARTICIPANTS

Among all 200 patients who died during opioid agonist treatment between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2015, 125 patients (63%) were autopsied. Among these, 122 patients (75% men) had available autopsy reports and were included. The mean age at the time of death was 48 years.

MEASUREMENTS

Information on pulmonary, cardiovascular, hepatic and renal pathologies were retrieved from forensic or medical autopsy reports, with no (0) and yes (1) as outcome variables and age, sex and body mass index as covariates in logistic regression analyses.

FINDINGS

Pathologies in several organs were common. Two-thirds (65%) of the decedents had more than two organ system diseases. The most common organ pathologies were chronic liver disease (84%), cardiovascular disease (68%) and pulmonary emphysema (41%). In bivariate analyses, only older age was associated with any pulmonary pathology [odds ratio (OR) = 1.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.10], cardiovascular pathology (OR = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.05-1.17) and renal pathology (OR = 1.05; 95% CI = 1.00-1.11). Older age remained independently associated with cardiovascular pathology (OR = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.04-1.16) and renal pathology (OR = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.01-1.12) adjusted for body mass index and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Among autopsied Norwegians who died during opioid agonist treatment in 2014 and 2015, two-thirds had more than two organ system diseases, despite their mean age of 48 years at the time of death. Older age was independently associated with at least one cardiovascular or renal pathology after adjusting for sex and body mass index.

Highlighting the hidden dangers of a 'weak' opioid: Deaths following use of dihydrocodeine in England (2001-2020)

BACKGROUND

Dihydrocodeine (DHC) is considered a 'weak' opioid, but there is evidence of its increasing misuse in overdose deaths. This research aims to analyse trends in DHC-related deaths in England relevant to source and dose of DHC, and decedent demographics.

METHODS

Cases from England reported to the National Programme on Substance Abuse Deaths (NPSAD) where DHC was identified at post-mortem and/or implicated in death between 2001 and 2020 were extracted for analysis.

RESULTS

2071 DHC-related deaths were identified. The greatest number of deaths involved illicitly obtained DHC and a significant increase in these deaths was recorded over time (r = 0.5, p = 0.03). However, there was a concurrent decline in the implication rate of DHC in causing death (r = -0.6, p < 0.01). Fatalities were primarily due to accidental overdose (64.8%) and misuse was highly prevalent in combination with additional central nervous system depressants (95.3%), namely illicit heroin/morphine and diazepam. In contrast, when DHC was obtained over-the-counter (OTC) suicide mortality accounted for almost half of the deaths (42.5%). Differences in polysubstance use were also identified, with less heroin/morphine and benzodiazepine co-detection, but increased OTC codeine co-detection.

CONCLUSIONS

DHC misuse in England is increasing. The pharmacological consideration of DHC as a 'weak' opioid may be misinterpreted by users, leading to accidental overdosing. There is an urgent need to understand increasing polypharmacy in overdose deaths. Additionally, suicides involving DHC is a potential cause for concern and a review of OTC opioid-paracetamol preparations is necessary to determine whether the benefits of these medications continue to outweigh the risks of intentional overdose.

Causes of death among people who used illicit opioids in England, 2001-18: a matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

In many countries, the average age of people who use illicit opioids, such as heroin, is increasing. This has been suggested to be a reason for increasing numbers of opioid-related deaths seen in surveillance data. We aimed to describe causes of death among people who use illicit opioids in England, how causes of death have changed over time, and how they change with age.

METHODS

In this matched cohort study, we studied patients in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with recorded illicit opioid use (defined as aged 18-64 years, with prescriptions or clinical observations that indicate use of illicit opioids) in England between Jan 1, 2001, and Oct 30, 2018. We also included a comparison group, matched (1:3) for age, sex, and general practice with no records of illicit opioid use before cohort entry. Dates and causes of death were obtained from the UK Office for National Statistics. The cohort exit date was the earliest of date of death or Oct 30, 2018. We described rates of death and calculated cause-specific standardised mortality ratios. We used Poisson regression to estimate associations between age, calendar year, and cause-specific death.

FINDINGS

We collected data for 106 789 participants with a history of illicit opioid use, with a median follow-up of 8·7 years (IQR 4·3-13·5), and 320 367 matched controls with a median follow-up of 9·5 years (5·0-14·4). 13 209 (12·4%) of 106 789 participants in the exposed cohort had died, with a standardised mortality ratio of 7·72 (95% CI 7·47-7·97). The most common causes of death were drug poisoning (4375 [33·1%] of 13 209), liver disease (1272 [9·6%]), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; 681 [5·2%]), and suicide (645 [4·9%]). Participants with a history of illicit opioid use had higher mortality rates than the comparison group for all causes of death analysed, with highest standardised mortality ratios being seen for viral hepatitis (103·5 [95% CI 61·7-242·6]), HIV (16·7 [9·5-34·9]), and COPD (14·8 [12·6-17·6]). In the exposed cohort, at age 20 years, the rate of fatal drug poisonings was 271 (95% CI 230-313) per 100 000 person-years, accounting for 59·9% of deaths at this age, whereas the mortality rate due to non-communicable diseases was 31 (16-45) per 100 000 person-years, accounting for 6·8% of deaths at this age. Deaths due to non-communicable diseases increased more rapidly with age (1155 [95% CI 880-1431] deaths per 100 000 person-years at age 50 years; accounting for 52·0% of deaths at this age) than did deaths due to drug poisoning (507 (95% CI 452-562) per 100 000 person-years at age 50 years; accounting for 22·8% of deaths at this age). Mirroring national surveillance data, the rate of fatal drug poisonings in the exposed cohort increased from 345 (95% CI 299-391) deaths per 100 000 person-years in 2010-12 to 534 (468-600) per 100 000 person-years in 2016-18; an increase of 55%, a trend that was not explained by ageing of participants.

INTERPRETATION

People who use illicit opioids have excess risk of death across all major causes of death we analysed. Our findings suggest that population ageing is unlikely to explain the increasing number of fatal drug poisonings seen in surveillance data, but is associated with many more deaths due to non-communicable diseases.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research.

Illicit synthetic opioid consumption in Asia and the Pacific: Assessing the risks of a potential outbreak

BACKGROUND

Illegally manufactured potent synthetic opioids (IMPSO) like fentanyl have contributed to rises in overdose deaths in parts of North America and Europe. While many of these substances are produced in Asia, there is little evidence they have entered markets there. We consider the susceptibility to IMPSO's encroachment in markets in the Asia-Pacific region.

METHODS

Our analysis focuses on Australia, China, India, and Myanmar. Using a mixed-methods approach comprising interviews, literature review, and secondary data analyses, we examine factors facilitating or impeding incursion of IMPSO. Finally, we illustrate the potential for IMPSO fatalities in Australia.

RESULTS

Australia reports some signs of three facilitating factors to IMPSO's emergence: 1) existing illicit opioid markets, 2) disruption of opioid supply, and 3) user preferences. The other three countries report only existing illicit opioid markets. While diverted pharmaceutical opioids are a noted problem in Australia and India, heroin is the dominant opioid in all four countries. There are divergent trends in heroin use, with use declining in China, increasing in India, and stable in Australia and Myanmar. If IMPSO diffused in Australia as in North America from 2014 to 2018, and our assumptions generally hold, deaths from IMPSO could range from 1500-5700 over a five-year period.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis and illustrative calculations serve as an early indication for policymakers. With the exception of Australia, many countries in the region fail to properly record overdose deaths or monitor changes in local drug markets. Early assessment and monitoring can give officials a better understanding of these changing threats.