Optimal Prospective Predictors of Mortality in Austere Environments

Shock index and shock index, pediatric age-adjusted as predictors of mortality in pediatric patients with trauma: A systematic review and meta-analysis

This study aimed to assess the predictive ability of the shock index (SI) and the shock index, pediatric age-adjusted (SIPA) for mortality among pediatric patients with trauma (aged ≤ 18 years). A systematic search used PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases to identify pertinent articles published from their inception to 13 February 2023. For each SI and SIPA, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated. We planned a priori meta-regression analyses to explore heterogeneity using the following covariates: country, clinical setting, type of center, data source, and cutoff value. Twelve studies were included based on the inclusion criteria. Among them, nine studies with 195,469 patients were included for the SIPA at the hospital, four studies with 4,970 patients were included for the pre-hospital SIPA, and seven studies with 606,445 patients were included to assess the ability of the SI in predicting mortality. The pooled sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence interval for predicting mortality were as follows: 0.58 (0.44-0.70) and 0.72 (0.60-0.82), respectively, for the SIPA at the hospital; 0.61 (0.47-0.74) and 0.67 (0.61-0.73), respectively, for the pre-hospital SIPA; and 0.71 (0.59-0.81) and 0.45 (0.31-0.59), respectively for the SI. The DOR were 3.80, 3.28, and 2.06 for the SIPA at the hospital, pre-hospital SIPA, and SI, respectively. The AUC were 0.693, 0.689, and 0.618 for the SIPA at the hospital, pre-hospital SIPA, and SI, respectively. The SI and SIPA are simple predictive tools with sufficient accuracy that can be readily applied to pediatric patients with trauma, but SIPA and SI should be utilized cautiously due to their limited sensitivity and specificity, respectively.

Reverse Shock Index multiplied by Glasgow Coma Scale score as a point-of-care severity assessment for initial trauma management: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Severe trauma patients often require emergent interventions, such as massive transfusion, resuscitative procedures, and surgical procedures, and consume considerable human and medical resources. However, few practical indices can be easily used for emergent interventions. In recent years, it has become clear that rSIG (Reverse Shock Index multiplied by Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score), which can be easily calculated from vital signs, is a promising predictor of mortality. However, it is unclear whether rSIG is useful for emergent interventions.

METHODS

Data collected by the Japan Trauma Data Bank for adult patients admitted directly from the scene of trauma between April 2019 and December 2020 were analysed. The outcomes were massive transfusion, resuscitative procedures, surgical procedures and emergent interventions. Emergent interventions were defined as the composite outcome of massive transfusion, resuscitative procedures, and surgical procedures. The ability of rSIG to predict massive transfusion was compared with that of the ABC score and FASILA score by receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. The ability of rSIG to predict resuscitative and surgical procedures was compared with that of the Shock Index (SI), GCS, Triage Revised Trauma score (T-RTS), and Previous Simple Prediction (PSP) score. The ability of rSIG to predict emergent interventions was compared with that of T-RTS, PSP, ABC, and FASILA. In addition to rSIG, rSIM (Reverse Shock Index multiplied by best motor response score) was also analysed as a supplement.

RESULTS

The study included 32,201 patients, 6,371 of whom required emergent interventions. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for massive transfusion was highest for rSIG (0.846 [95 % confidence interval 0.832-0.859]) and significantly higher for rSIG than for rSIM, ABC and FASILA (all p < 0.0001). AUROCs for resuscitative and surgical procedures were highest for rSIG (0.777 [0.769-0.785] and 0.731 [0.720-0.741], respectively) and significantly higher than those for rSIM, SI, GCS, T-RTS, and PSP (all p < 0.0001). The AUROC for emergent interventions was highest for rSIG (0.760 [0.753-0.768]) and significantly higher for rSIG than for rSIM, T-RTS, PSP, ABC, or FASILA (all p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

rSIG is a simple and effective point-of-care predictor of emergent interventions during initial management of trauma.

Reverse shock index multiplied by simplified motor score as a predictor of clinical outcomes for patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The reverse shock index (rSI) combined with the Simplified Motor Score (sMS), that is, the rSI-sMS, is a novel and efficient prehospital triage scoring system for patients with COVID-19. In this study, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the rSI-sMS for general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) admission among patients with COVID-19 and compared it with that of other measures, including the shock index (SI), modified SI (mSI), rSI combined with the Glasgow Coma Scale (rSI-GCS), and rSI combined with the GCS motor subscale (rSI-GCSM).

METHODS

All patients who visited the emergency department of Taipei Tzu Chi Hospital between January 2021 and June 2022 were included in this retrospective cohort. A diagnosis of COVID-19 was confirmed through a SARS-CoV-2 reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction test or SARS-CoV-2 rapid test with oropharyngeal or nasopharyngeal swabs and was double confirmed by checking International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification codes in electronic medical records. In-hospital mortality was regarded as the primary outcome, and sepsis, general ward or ICU admission, endotracheal intubation, and total hospital length of stay (LOS) were regarded as secondary outcomes. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the relationship between the scoring systems and the three major outcomes of patients with COVID-19, including. The discriminant ability of the predictive scoring systems was investigated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the most favorable cutoff value of the rSI-sMS for each major outcome was determined using Youden's index.

RESULTS

After 74,183 patients younger than 20 years (n = 11,572) and without COVID-19 (n = 62,611) were excluded, 9,282 patients with COVID-19 (median age: 45 years, interquartile range: 33-60 years, 46.1% men) were identified as eligible for inclusion in the study. The rate of in-hospital mortality was determined to be 0.75%. The rSI-sMS scores were significantly lower in the patient groups with sepsis, hyperlactatemia, admission to a general ward, admission to the ICU, total length of stay ≥ 14 days, and mortality. Compared with the SI, mSI, and rSI-GCSM, the rSI-sMS exhibited a significantly higher accuracy for predicting general ward admission, ICU admission, and mortality but a similar accuracy to that of the rSI-GCS. The optimal cutoff values of the rSI-sMS for predicting general ward admission, ICU admission, and mortality were calculated to be 3.17, 3.45, and 3.15, respectively, with a predictive accuracy of 86.83%, 81.94%%, and 90.96%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the SI, mSI, and rSI-GCSM, the rSI-sMS has a higher predictive accuracy for general ward admission, ICU admission, and mortality among patients with COVID-19.

Use of prehospital reverse shock index times Glasgow Coma Scale to identify children who require the most immediate trauma care

BACKGROUND

Appropriate prehospital trauma triage ensures transport of children to facilities that provide specialized trauma care. There are currently no objective and generalizable scoring tool for emergency medical services to facilitate such decisions. An abnormal reverse shock index times Glasgow Coma Scale (rSIG), which is calculated using readily available parameters, has been shown to be associated with severely injured children. This study sought to determine if rSIG could be used in the prehospital setting to identify injured children who require the highest levels of care.

METHODS

Patients (1-18 years old) transferred from the scene to a level 1 pediatric trauma center from 2010 to 2020 with complete prehospital and emergency department vital signs, and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores were included. Reverse shock index times GCS was calculated as previously described ((systolic blood pressure/heart rate) × GCS), and the following cutoffs were used: ≤13.1, ≤16.5, and ≤20.1 for 1- to 6-, 7- to 12-, and 13- to 18-year-old patients, respectively. Trauma activation level and clinical outcomes upon arrival to the pediatric trauma center were collected.

RESULTS

There were 247 patients included in the analysis; 66.0% (163) had an abnormal prehospital rSIG. Patients with an abnormal rSIG had a higher rate of highest-level trauma activation compared with those with a normal rSIG (38.7% vs. 20.2%, p = 0.013). Patients with an abnormal prehospital rSIG also had higher rates of intubation (28.8% vs. 9.52%, p < 0.001), intracranial pressure monitor (9.20 vs. 1.19%, p = 0.032), need for blood (19.6% vs. 8.33%, p = 0.034), laparotomy (7.98% vs. 1.19%, p = 0.039), and intensive care unit admission (54.6% vs. 40.5%, p = 0.049).

CONCLUSION

Reverse shock index times GCS may assist emergency medical service providers in early identification and triage of severely injured children. An abnormal rSIG in the emergency department is associated with higher rates of intubation, need for blood transfusion, intracranial pressure monitoring, laparotomy, and intensive care unit admission. Use of this metric may help to speed the identification, care, and treatment of any injured child.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level IV.

The reverse shock index multiplied by the Glasgow Coma Scale score can predict the need for initial resuscitation in patients suspected of sepsis

For patients suspected of sepsis, early recognition of the need for initial resuscitation is key in management. This study evaluated the ability of a modified shock index - the reverse shock index multiplied by the Glasgow Coma Scale score (rSIG) - to predict the need for initial resuscitation in patients with sepsis. This retrospective study involved adults with infection who were admitted to a Japanese tertiary care hospital from an emergency department between January and November 2020. The rSIG, modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), and original shock index (SI) values were recorded using initial vital signs. The primary outcome was the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the composite outcome consisting of vasopressor use, mechanical ventilation, and 72-h mortality. Secondary outcomes were the AUROCs for each component of the primary outcome and 28-day mortality. As a result, the primary outcome was met by 67 of the 724 patients (9%). The AUROC was significantly higher for the rSIG than for the other tools (rSIG 0.84 [0.78 - 0.88]; MEWS 0.78 [0.71 - 0.84]; qSOFA 0.72 [0.65 - 0.79]; SI 0.80 [0.74 - 0.85]). Compared with MEWS and qSOFA, the rSIG also had a higher AUROC for vasopressor use and mechanical ventilation, but not for 72-h mortality or in-hospital mortality. The rSIG could be a simple and reliable predictor of the need for initial resuscitation in patients suspected of sepsis.

Shock index, modified shock index, age shock index score, and reverse shock index multiplied by Glasgow Coma Scale predicting clinical outcomes in traumatic brain injury: Evidence from a 10-year analysis in a single center

OBJECTIVES

Early identification of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients at a high risk of mortality is very important. This study aimed to compare the predictive accuracy of four scoring systems in TBI, including shock index (SI), modified shock index (MSI), age-adjusted shock index (ASI), and reverse shock index multiplied by the Glasgow Coma Scale (rSIG).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of a registry from the Taipei Tzu Chi trauma database. Totally, 1,791 patients with TBI were included. We investigated the accuracy of four major shock indices for TBI mortality. In the subgroup analysis, we also analyzed the effects of age, injury mechanism, underlying diseases, TBI severity, and injury severity.

RESULTS

The predictive accuracy of rSIG was significantly higher than those of SI, MSI, and ASI in all the patients [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), 0.710 vs. 0.495 vs. 0.527 vs. 0.598], especially in the moderate/severe TBI (AUROC, 0.625 vs. 0.450 vs. 0.476 vs. 0.529) and isolated head injury populations (AUROC 0.689 vs. 0.472 vs. 0.504 vs. 0.587). In the subgroup analysis, the prediction accuracy of mortality of rSIG was better in TBI with major trauma [Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 16], motor vehicle collisions, fall injury, and healthy and cardiovascular disease population. rSIG also had a better prediction effect, as compared to SI, MSI, and ASI, both in the non-geriatric (age < 65 years) and geriatric (age ≥ 65 years).

CONCLUSION

rSIG had a better prediction accuracy for mortality in the overall TBI population than SI, MSI, and ASI. Although rSIG have better accuracy than other indices (ROC values indicate poor to moderate accuracy), the further clinical studies are necessary to validate our results.

Shock index as a predictor for mortality in trauma patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

The primary aim was to determine whether a shock index (SI) ≥ 1 in adult trauma patients was associated with increased in-hospital mortality compared to an SI < 1.

METHODS

This systematic review including a meta-analysis was performed in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. EMBASE, MEDLINE, and Cochrane Library were searched, and two authors independently screened articles, performed the data extraction, and assessed risk of bias. Studies were included if they reported in-hospital, 30-day, or 48-h mortality, length of stay, massive blood transfusion or ICU admission in trauma patients with SI recorded at arrival in the emergency department or trauma center. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, and the strength and quality of the body of evidence according to GRADE. Data were pooled using a random effects model. Inter-rater reliability was assessed with Cohen's kappa.

RESULTS

We screened 1350 citations with an inter-rater reliability of 0.90. Thirty-eight cohort studies were included of which 14 reported the primary outcome. All studies reported a significant higher in-hospital mortality in adult trauma patients with an SI ≥ 1 compared to those having an SI < 1. Twelve studies involving a total of 348,687 participants were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled risk ratio (RR) of in-hospital mortality was 4.15 (95% CI 2.96-5.83). The overall quality of evidence was low.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review found a fourfold increased risk of in-hospital mortality in adult trauma patients with an initial SI ≥ 1 in the emergency department or trauma center.

Combatting ischemia reperfusion injury from resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta using adenosine, lidocaine and magnesium: A pilot study

BACKGROUND

Resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta (REBOA), a minimally invasive alternative to resuscitative thoracotomy, has been associated with significant ischemia reperfusion injury (IRI). Resuscitation strategies using adenosine, lidocaine, and magnesium (ALM) have been shown to mitigate similar inflammatory responses in hemorrhagic and septic shock models. This study examined the effects of ALM on REBOA-associated IRI using a porcine model.

METHODS

Animals underwent a 20% controlled hemorrhage followed by 30 minutes of supraceliac balloon occlusion. They were assigned to one of four groups: control (n = 5), 4-hour ALM infusion starting at occlusion, 2-hour (n = 5) and 4-hour (n = 5) interventional ALM infusions starting at reperfusion. Adenosine, lidocaine, and magnesium cohorts received a posthemorrhage ALM bolus followed by their respective ALM infusion. Primary outcomes for the study assessed physiologic and hemodynamic parameters.

RESULTS

Adenosine, lidocaine, and magnesium infusion after reperfusion cohorts demonstrated a significant improvement in lactate, base deficit, and pH in the first hour following systemic reperfusion. At study endpoint, continuous ALM infusion initiated after reperfusion over 4 hours resulted in an overall improved lactate clearance when compared with the 2-hour and control cohorts. No differences in hemodynamic parameters were noted between ALM cohorts and controls.

CONCLUSION

Adenosine, lidocaine, and magnesium may prove beneficial in mitigating the inflammatory response seen from REBOA-associated IRI as evidenced by physiologic improvements early during resuscitation. Despite this, further refinement should be sought to optimize treatment strategies.

Addition of neurological status to pediatric adjusted shock index to predict early mortality in trauma: A pediatric Trauma Quality Improvement Program analysis

INTRODUCTION

Pediatric adjusted shock index (SIPA) has demonstrated the ability to prospectively identify children at the highest risk for early mortality. The addition of neurological status to shock index has shown promise as a reliable triage tool in adult trauma populations. This study sought to assess the utility of combining SIPA with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) for predicting early trauma-related outcomes.

METHODS

Retrospective review of the 2017 Trauma Quality Improvement Program Database was performed for all severely injured patients younger than 18 years old. Pediatric adjusted shock index and reverse SIPA × GCS (rSIG) were calculated. Age-specific cutoff values were derived for reverse shock index multiplied by GCS (rSIG) and compared with their SIPA counterparts for early mortality assessment using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 10,389 pediatric patients with an average age of 11.4 years, 67% male, average Injury Severity Score of 24.1, and 4% sustaining a major penetrating injury were included in the analysis. The overall mortality was 9.3%. Furthermore, 32.1% of patients displayed an elevated SIPA score, while only 27.5% displayed a positive rSIG. On area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, rSIG was found to be superior to SIPA as a predictor for in hospital mortality with values of 0.854 versus 0.628, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Reverse shock index multiplied by GCS more readily predicted in hospital mortality for pediatric trauma patients when compared with SIPA. These findings suggest that neurological status should be an important factor during initial patient assessment. Further study to assess the applicability of rSIG for expanded trauma-related outcomes in pediatric trauma is necessary.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic study, level IV.

A Comparative Study Between Two Combat Injury Severity Scores

INTRODUCTION

In recent years, specific trauma scoring systems have been developed for military casualties. The objective of this study was to examine the discrepancies in severity scores of combat casualties between the Abbreviated Injury Scale 2005-Military (mAIS) and the Military Combat Injury Scale (MCIS) and a review of the current literature on the application of trauma scoring systems in the military setting.

METHODS

A cross-sectional, descriptive, and retrospective study was conducted between May 1, 2005, and December 31, 2014. The study population consisted of all combat casualties attended in the Spanish Role 2 deployed in Herat (Afghanistan). We used the New Injury Severity Score (NISS) as reference score. Severity of each injury was calculated according to mAIS and MCIS, respectively. The severity of each casualty was calculated according to the NISS based on the mAIS (Military New Injury Severity Score-mNISS) and MCIS (Military Combat Injury Scale-New Injury Severity Score-MCIS-NISS). Casualty severity were grouped by severity levels (mild-scores: 1-8, moderate-scores: 9-15, severe-scores: 16-24, and critical-scores: 25-75).

RESULTS

Nine hundred and eleven casualties were analyzed. Most were male (96.37%) with a median age of 27 years. Afghan patients comprised 71.13%. Air medevac was the main casualty transportation method (80.13). Explosion (64.76%) and gunshot wound (34.68%) mechanisms predominated. Overall mortality was 3.51%. Median mNISS and MCIS-NISS were similar in nonsurvivors (36 [IQR, 25-49] vs. [IQR, 25-48], respectively) but different in survivors, 9 (IQR, 4-17) vs. 5 (IQR, 2-13), respectively (P < .0001). The mNISS and MCIS-NISS were discordant in 34.35% (n = 313). Among cases with discordant severity scores, the median difference between mNISS and MCIS-NISS was 9 (IQR, 4-16); range, 1 to 57.

CONCLUSION

Our study findings suggest that discrepancies in injury severity levels may be observed in one in three of the casualties when using mNISS and MCIS-NISS.

Pediatric adjusted reverse shock index multiplied by Glasgow Coma Scale as a prospective predictor for mortality in pediatric trauma

INTRODUCTION

Shock index and its pediatric adjusted derivative (pediatric age-adjusted shock index [SIPA]) have demonstrated utility as prospective predictors of mortality in adult and pediatric trauma populations. Although basic vital signs provide promise as triage tools, factors such as neurologic status on arrival have profound implications for trauma-related outcomes. Recently, the reverse shock index multiplied by Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score (rSIG) has been validated in adult trauma as a tool combining early markers of physiology and neurologic function to predict mortality. This study sought to compare the performance characteristics of rSIG against SIPA as a prospective predictor of mortality in pediatric war zone injuries.

METHODS

Retrospective review of the Department of Defense Trauma Registry, 2008 to 2016, was performed for all patients younger than 18 years with documented vital signs and GCS on initial arrival to the trauma bay. Optimal age-specific cutoff values were derived for rSIG via the Youden index using receiver operating characteristic analyses. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to validate accuracy in predicting early mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 2,007 pediatric patients with a median age range of 7 to 12 years, 79% male, average Injury Severity Score of 11.9, and 62.5% sustaining a penetrating injury were included in the analysis. The overall mortality was 7.1%. A total of 874 (43.5%) and 685 patients (34.1%) had elevated SIPA and pediatric rSIG scores, respectively. After adjusting for demographics, mechanism of injury, initial vital signs, and presenting laboratory values, rSIG (odds ratio, 4.054; p = 0.01) was found to be superior to SIPA (odds ratio, 2.742; p < 0.01) as an independent predictor of early mortality.

CONCLUSION

Reverse shock index multiplied by GCS score more accurately identifies pediatric patients at highest risk of death when compared with SIPA alone, following war zone injuries. These findings may help further refine early risk assessments for patient management and resource allocation in constrained settings. Further validation is necessary to determine applicability to the civilian population.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic study, level IV.