Predicting 30-day case fatality of primary inoperable intracerebral hemorrhage based on findings at the emergency department

Predictors of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage mortality: a community-based study in Brno, Czech Republic

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a serious medical condition with high mortality. However, factors leading to long-term mortality after ICH are largely unclear. The aim of this community-based study is to assess predictors of long-term mortality after spontaneous ICH.

METHODS

We identified all patients admitted with spontaneous ICH to hospitals with a certified stroke unit in Brno, the second largest city in the Czech Republic (CR), in 2011, the year of the Czech Population and Housing Census. We reviewed their medical records for risk factors, radiographic parameters, and measures of post-stroke neurological deficit [National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS)]. Using the dates of death from the Czech National Mortality Register, we calculated mortality at 30 days, six months, one year, and three years after the ICH. Multivariate analysis with forward stepwise logistic regression was performed to determine independent predictors of mortality (p < 0.05).

RESULTS

In 2011, 1086 patients with stroke were admitted to the four stroke-certified hospitals in Brno, CR. Of these, 134 had spontaneous ICH, with complete data available in 93 of them entering the final analysis. The mortality at 30 days, 6 months, 1 year, and 3 years post-ICH was 34%, 47%, 51%, and 63%, respectively. The mortality was highest in the first few days post-event, with 50% of patients dying in 255 days and average survival being 884 ± 90 days. Both NIHSS and modified ICH (MICH) score showed to be strong and reliable predictors of short- as well as long-term mortality; the risk of death post-ICH increased with older age and size of ICH. Other risk factors contributing to higher, primarily shorter-term mortality included history of cardiac failure, myocardial infarction, or atrial fibrillation.

CONCLUSIONS

In our community-based study, we found that severity of neurological deficit at admission (NIHSS), combined with age and size of ICH, well predicted short- as well as long-term mortality after spontaneous ICH. A history of cardiac failure, myocardial infarction, or atrial fibrillation at presentation were also predictors of mortality, underscoring the need for optimal cardiac management in patients with ICH.

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Critically Ill Adults with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

The objective of this document is to provide recommendations on the formal reliability of major clinical predictors often associated with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) neuroprognostication.

METHODS

A narrative systematic review was completed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology and the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting questions. Predictors, which included both individual clinical variables and prediction models, were selected based on clinical relevance and attention in the literature. Following construction of the evidence profile and summary of findings, recommendations were based on Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria. Good practice statements addressed essential principles of neuroprognostication that could not be framed in the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting format.

RESULTS

Six candidate clinical variables and two clinical grading scales (the original ICH score and maximally treated ICH score) were selected for recommendation creation. A total of 347 articles out of 10,751 articles screened met our eligibility criteria. Consensus statements of good practice included deferring neuroprognostication-aside from the most clinically devastated patients-for at least the first 48-72 h of intensive care unit admission; understanding what outcomes would have been most valued by the patient; and counseling of patients and surrogates whose ultimate neurological recovery may occur over a variable period of time. Although many clinical variables and grading scales are associated with ICH poor outcome, no clinical variable alone or sole clinical grading scale was suggested by the panel as currently being reliable by itself for use in counseling patients with ICH and their surrogates, regarding functional outcome at 3 months and beyond or 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

These guidelines provide recommendations on the formal reliability of predictors of poor outcome in the context of counseling patients with ICH and surrogates and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication. Clinicians formulating their judgments of prognosis for patients with ICH should avoid anchoring bias based solely on any one clinical variable or published clinical grading scale.

Head-to-head comparison of prognostic models of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: tools for personalized care and clinical trial in ICH

To systematically compare 27 ICH models with regard to mortality and functional outcome at 1-month, 3-month and 1-year after ICH. The validation cohort was derived from the Beijing Registration of Intracerebral Hemorrhage. Poor functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) ≥3 at 1-month, 3-month and 1-year after ICH, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration. A total number of 1575 patients were included. The mean age was 57.2 ± 14.3 and 67.2% were male. The median NIHSS score on admission was 11 (IQR: 3-21). For predicting mortality at 3-month after ICH, AUROC of 27 ICH models ranged from 0.604 to 0.856. In pairwise comparison, the ICH-FOS (0.856, 95%CI = 0.835-0.878, P < 0.001) showed statistically better discrimination than other models for mortality at 3-month after ICH (all P < 0.05). For predicting poor functional outcome (mRS≥3) at 3-month after ICH, AUROC of 27 ICH models ranged from 0.602 to 0.880. In pairwise comparison with other prediction models, the ICH-FOS was superior in predicting poor functional outcome at 3-month after ICH (all P < 0.001). The ICH-FOS showed the largest Cox and Snell R-square. Similar results were verified for mortality and poor functional outcome at 1-month and 1-year after ICH. Several risk models are externally validated to be effective for risk stratification and outcome prediction after ICH, especially the ICH-FOS, which would be useful tools for personalized care and clinical trial in ICH.

Scoping Review and Commentary on Prognostication for Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage with Advances in Surgical Techniques

INTRODUCTION

The intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) score provides an estimate of 30-day mortality for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage in order to guide research protocols and clinical decision making. Several variations of such scoring systems have attempted to optimize its prognostic value. More recently, minimally invasive surgical techniques are increasingly being used with promising results. As more patients become candidates for surgical intervention, there is a need to re-discuss the best methods for predicting outcomes with or without surgical intervention.

METHODS

We systematically performed a scoping review with a comprehensive literature search by two independent reviewers using the PubMed and Cochrane databases for articles pertaining to the "intracerebral hemorrhage score." Relevant articles were selected for analysis and discussion of potential modifications to account for increasing surgical indications.

RESULTS

A total of 64 articles were reviewed in depth and identified 37 clinical grading scales for prognostication of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. The original ICH score remains the most widely used and validated. Various authors proposed modifications for improved prognostic accuracy, though no single scale showed consistent superiority. Most recently, scales to account for advances in surgical techniques have been developed but lack external validation.

CONCLUSION

We provide the most comprehensive review to date of prognostic grading scales for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. Current prognostic tools for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage remain limited and may overestimate risk of a poor outcome. As minimally invasive surgical techniques are developed, prognostic scales should account for surgical candidacy and outcomes.

High neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predicts early neurological deterioration in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage patients

Background

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is caused by bleeding, primarily into parenchymal brain tissue, and accounts for 9 to 27% of all strokes worldwide. Higher neutrophils, lower lymphocytes, and higher neutrophil-to-lymphocytes ratio (NLR) values predict worse outcomes after spontaneous intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) and could aid in the risk stratification of patients.

Methods

Eighty patients with sICH within the first 24 h of stroke onset and admitted into the neurology intensive care unit of an Egyptian university hospital and were assessed by GCS for consciousness level and NIHSS for stroke severity assessment, complete blood count, and special attention to NLR. Patients were reevaluated by GCS and NIHSS on the 7th day of the stroke. Early neurological deterioration (END) was defined as four points or a greater increase in the NIHSS score or two points or a greater decrease in GCS or death.

Results

END was recorded in 21.25% of patients while non-END was recorded in 78.75%. END was highly significantly associated with a low grade of GCS, high grade of NIHSS, elevated absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), and elevated NLR. Lower GCS score, higher NIHSS score, larger hematoma volume, and higher NLR values were independent predictors for END. The best cutoff of NLR in END prediction was > 9.1.

Conclusion

NLR is a trustworthy early predictor of sICH outcome.

Is using intracerebral hemorrhage scoring systems valid for mortality prediction in surgically treated patients?

While intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) scoring systems provide mortality and morbidity prediction, the actual mortality rates seem to be lower than those predicted by scoring systems in our clinical impression. To assess the validity of the ICH score and the Surgical Swedish ICH (SwICH) score, we retrospectively reviewed surgically treated ICH patients between 2012 and 2019. Uni- and multivariate analyses were performed to identify variables in predicting 30-day mortality. We identified 203 patients (mean ICH score 2.7; mean SwICH score 2.0). The actual 30-day mortality was 7%, which was significantly lower than those predicted by the ICH and the SwICH scores (55% and 16%, respectively; p < 0.001). Both scores were strongly correlated with the modified Rankin scale (mRS) at discharge (correlation coefficient 0.97 and 0.98; critical value 0.81). The only significant prognostic factors for the 30-day mortality by multivariate analysis were anisocoria (p = 0.03) and preoperative Glasgow Coma Scale (p = 0.03). These two factors also predicted mRS at discharge (p < 0.001). After discharge, 15% of patients improved regarding mRS and 29% of wheelchair-bound patients gained the ability to ambulate. No significant relationship existed between the degree of recovery after discharge and preoperative ICH score (p = 0.25). The ICH and SwICH scores were more valid in predicting morbidity, rather than mortality after surgical intervention for ICH. Anisocoria and Glasgow Coma Scale < 7 were the only two factors that predicted 30-day mortality and morbidity at discharge.

Gap Analysis Regarding Prognostication in Neurocritical Care: A Joint Statement from the German Neurocritical Care Society and the Neurocritical Care Society

Background/Objective

Prognostication is a routine part of the delivery of neurocritical care for most patients with acute neurocritical illnesses. Numerous prognostic models exist for many different conditions. However, there are concerns about significant gaps in knowledge regarding optimal methods of prognostication.

Methods

As part of the Arbeitstagung NeuroIntensivMedizin meeting in February 2018 in Würzburg, Germany, a joint session on prognostication was held between the German NeuroIntensive Care Society and the Neurocritical Care Society. The purpose of this session was to provide presentations and open discussion regarding existing prognostic models for eight common neurocritical care conditions (aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, intracerebral hemorrhage, acute ischemic stroke, traumatic brain injury, traumatic spinal cord injury, status epilepticus, Guillain–Barré Syndrome, and global cerebral ischemia from cardiac arrest). The goal was to develop a qualitative gap analysis regarding prognostication that could help inform a future framework for clinical studies and guidelines.

Results

Prognostic models exist for all of the conditions presented. However, there are significant gaps in prognostication in each condition. Furthermore, several themes emerged that crossed across several or all diseases presented. Specifically, the self-fulfilling prophecy, lack of accounting for medical comorbidities, and absence of integration of in-hospital care parameters were identified as major gaps in most prognostic models.

Conclusions

Prognostication in neurocritical care is important, and current prognostic models are limited. This gap analysis provides a summary assessment of issues that could be addressed in future studies and evidence-based guidelines in order to improve the process of prognostication.

Effect of Cigarette Smoking on Functional Outcomes in Patients with Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Nicotine may have neuroprotective effects on the injured brain through modulation of the cholinergic anti-inflammatory pathway.

AIMS

This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between cigarette smoking and outcomes in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

METHODS

This was a retrospective review of consecutive ICH patients enrolled in the ICH Outcomes Project from 2009 to 2017. Patients with age ≥18 years and baseline modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score 0-2 were included. Smoking patterns were categorized as recent smoker (≤30 days prior to ICH) and not recent smoker (>30 days prior to ICH). Not recent smokers were further categorized into former smokers and nonsmokers. The primary outcome was good outcome (90-day mRS ≤ 2). Secondary outcomes were excellent outcome (90-day mRS 0-1), 90-day Barthel Index, and in-hospital and 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 545 patients, including 60 recent smokers and 485 not recent smokers. Recent smokers had higher rates of good (35% versus 23%; odds ratio [OR] = 1.787, P = .047) and excellent (25% versus 13%; OR = 2.220, P = .015) outcomes compared to not recent smokers. These differences were not significant after baseline adjustments. Recent smokers had higher rates of good (36% versus 24%; OR = 1.732, P = .063) and excellent (25% versus 13%; OR = 2.203, P = .018) outcomes compared to nonsmokers. These differences were not significant after baseline adjustments. A 90-day Barthel Index, in-hospital, and 90-day mortality were comparable between recent and not recent smokers, recent and nonsmokers, and former and nonsmokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite potential neuroprotective effects of nicotine found in cigarettes, these may be outweighed by the detrimental effects of cigarette smoking on health outcomes.

[An analysis of the dynamics of the main types of stroke and pathogenetic variants of ischemic stroke]

To analyze the main changes in the prevalence of stroke types and pathogenetic variants of ischemic stroke based on the data obtained from seven regions of the Russian Federation among the population aged 25 years and older. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In total, 29 779 cases of stroke, of which 4167 cases were registered in 2009 and 3402 cases in 2016, were detected during the period from 2009 to 2016. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The comparative analysis showed that the proportion of unspecified stroke (unspecified as a hemorrhage and or heart attack) decreased by 11 times from 4.7% to 0.4% (p<0.001). A decrease in 28-day mortality in ischemic stroke, intracerebral and subarachnoid hemorrhage was registered. A change in the ratio of the prevalence of pathogenetic variants of ischemic stroke was revealed. Over the 8-year period, the prevalence of cardioembolic stroke decreased from 35% to 21% (p=0.037). The prevalence of other pathogenetic variants of ischemic stroke has undergone changes. The changes in the ratio of the types of stroke studied are primarily related to the improvement of the diagnosis of stroke types, due to an increase in the percentage of computer tomography/magnetic resonance imaging performed, as well as the introduction of high-tech methods of helping patients with stroke and its effective prevention.

Location-specific differences in hematoma volume predict outcomes in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Functional outcome after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) may vary depending on hematoma volume and location. We assessed the interaction between hematoma volume and location, and modified the original ICH score to include such an interaction.

METHODS

Consecutive ICH patients were enrolled in the Intracerebral Hemorrhage Outcomes Project from 2009 to 2017. Inclusion criteria were age≥18 years, baseline modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score 0-2, neuroimaging, and follow-up. Functional dependence and mortality were defined as 90-day mRS>2 and death, respectively. A location ICH score was developed using multivariable regression and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) analyses.

RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 311 patients, and the derivation and validation cohorts comprised 209 and 102 patients, respectively. Interactions between hematoma volume and location predicted functional dependence (p = 0.008) and mortality (p = 0.025). The location ICH score comprised age≥80 years (1 point), Glasgow Coma Scale score (3-9 = 2 points; 10-13 = 1 point), volume-location (lobar:≥24 mL=2 points, 21-24 mL=1 point; deep:≥8 mL=2 points, 7-8 mL=1 point; brainstem:≥6 mL=2 points, 3-6 mL=1 point; cerebellum:≥24 mL=2 points, 12-24 mL=1 point), and intraventricular hemorrhage (1 point). AUROC of the location ICH score was higher in functional dependence (0.883 vs. 0.770, p = 0.002) but not mortality (0.838 vs. 0.841, p = 0.918) discrimination compared to the original ICH score.

CONCLUSIONS

The interaction between hematoma volume and location exerted an independent effect on outcomes. Excellent discrimination of functional dependence and mortality was observed with incorporation of location-specific volume thresholds into a prediction model. Therefore, the volume-location relationship plays an important role in ICH outcome prediction.

Prognostic models for intracerebral hemorrhage: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Prognostic tools for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients are potentially useful for ascertaining prognosis and recommended in guidelines to facilitate streamline assessment and communication between providers. In this systematic review with meta-analysis we identified and characterized all existing prognostic tools for this population, performed a methodological evaluation of the conducting and reporting of such studies and compared different methods of prognostic tool derivation in terms of discrimination for mortality and functional outcome prediction.

Methods

PubMed, ISI, Scopus and CENTRAL were searched up to 15th September 2016, with additional studies identified using reference check. Two reviewers independently extracted data regarding the population studied, process of tool derivation, included predictors and discrimination (c statistic) using a predesignated spreadsheet based in the CHARMS checklist. Disagreements were solved by consensus. C statistics were pooled using robust variance estimation and meta-regression was applied for group comparisons using random effect models.

Results

Fifty nine studies were retrieved, including 48,133 patients and reporting on the derivation of 72 prognostic tools. Data on discrimination (c statistic) was available for 53 tools, 38 focusing on mortality and 15 focusing on functional outcome. Discrimination was high for both outcomes, with a pooled c statistic of 0.88 for mortality and 0.87 for functional outcome. Forty three tools were regression based and nine tools were derived using machine learning algorithms, with no differences found between the two methods in terms of discrimination (p = 0.490). Several methodological issues however were identified, relating to handling of missing data, low number of events per variable, insufficient length of follow-up, absence of blinding, infrequent use of internal validation, and underreporting of important model performance measures.

Conclusions

Prognostic tools for ICH discriminated well for mortality and functional outcome in derivation studies but methodological issues require confirmation of these findings in validation studies. Logistic regression based risk scores are particularly promising given their good performance and ease of application.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12874-018-0613-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Related Factors of Early Mortality in Young Adults with Cerebral Hemorrhage

Background

The main causes of intracerebral hemorrhage differ between young adults and older adults. Data regarding potential targets for early intervention in young adult patients with intracerebral hemorrhage are lacking.

Methods

We retrospectively analysed data for 196 young adult patients with intracerebral hemorrhage who were admitted to Tianjin Huanhu Hospital and died within 30 days of admission between June 2005 and June 2015. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to calculate survival rate, and the log-rank test was used to determine survival rate significance. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used for univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results

Univariate analysis revealed a statistically significant association of age, disturbance of consciousness, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and Glasgow Coma Scale scores, seizure occurrence, infratentorial hemorrhage, intraventricular extension, hernia, glucose level, white blood cell count, albumin level, creatinine level, uric acid level, and surgical treatment with early mortality (P<0.05). However, multivariate regression analysis revealed that only infratentorial hemorrhage (P=0.003) and intraventricular extension (P=0.003) were significant risk factors for early mortality.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that young adult patients who exhibit infratentorial hemorrhage and intraventricular extension in the early stages of intracerebral hemorrhage onset exhibit an increased risk of early mortality.

Randomized trial to assess safety and clinical efficacy of intensive blood pressure reduction in acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Haematoma expansion due to raised blood pressure in spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage may determine outcome. The aim of this study was to determine safety and efficacy of lowering blood pressure in acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage.

METHODS

This open label, multicentric trial randomized patients ≥18 years with spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage with no secondary cause within 72 h of onset to tight BP control arm where treatment was initiated if mean arterial pressure (MAP) was ≥115 mm of Hg and conventional BP control arm where treatment was initiated if MAP was ≥130 mm of Hg. The MAP was maintained in the respective arm for another 72 h after which both arms had MAP below 115 mm of Hg. Primary outcome was modified Rankin Scale at 90 days.

RESULTS

118 patients, 59 in each arm were included. Follow up was available for all. Baseline characteristics were similar. At 90 days there was no significant difference between median mRS between the two arms. Odds Ratio for "poor outcome" (mRS 3-6) in the tight control arm (safety of the intervention) against "good outcome" (mRS 0-2) was not significant (OR 0.70 [95% CI 0.34-1.47] p = 0.35). Efficacy of the intervention in the form of Odds Ratio for "good outcome" in the tight control arm was not significant (OR 1.43 [95% CI 0.68-2.99], p = 0.35).

CONCLUSION

In patients with spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage who present within 72 h of the onset of symptoms, MAP can be safely lowered if it crosses 115 mm of Hg but it does not improve clinical outcome.

Predicting Prognosis of Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ICH): Performance of ICH Score Is Not Improved by Adding Oral Anticoagulant Use

Background

The intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) score is a commonly used prognostic model for 30-day mortality in ICH, based on five independent predictors (ICH volume, location, Glasgow Coma Scale, age, and intraventricular extension). Use of oral anticoagulants (OAC) is also associated with mortality but was not considered in the ICH score. We investigated (a) whether the predictive performance of ICH score is similar in OAC-ICH and non-OAC-ICH and (b) whether addition of OAC use to the ICH score increases the prognostic performance of the score.

Methods

We retrospectively selected all consecutive adult non-traumatic ICH cases (three hospitals, region South-Limburg, the Netherlands 2004-2009). Mortality at 30 days was recorded. Using univariable and multivariable logistic regression, association between OAC use and 30-day mortality was tested. Then (a) we computed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for ICH score and determined the area under the curve (AUC) in OAC-ICH and non-OAC-ICH. Then (b) we created a New ICH score by adding OAC use to the ICH score. We calculated correlation between 30-day mortality and ICH score, respectively, New ICH score using Spearman correlation test. We computed ROC curves and calculated the AUC.

Results

We analyzed 1,232 cases, 282 (22.9%) were OAC related ICH. Overall, 30-day mortality was 39.3%. OAC use was independently associated with 30-day mortality (OR 2.09, 95% CI, 1.48-2.95; p < 0.001), corrected for the five predictors of the ICH score. The ICH score performed slightly better in non-OAC-ICH (AUC 0.840) than in OAC-ICH (AUC 0.816), but this difference was not significant (p = 0.39). The ICH score and the New ICH score were both significantly correlated with 30-day mortality (rho 0.58, p < 0.001 and 0.59, p < 0.001, respectively). The AUC for the ICH score was 0.837, for New ICH score 0.840. This difference was not significant.

Conclusion

The ICH score is a useful tool for predicting 30-day mortality both in patient who use and patients who do not use OAC. Although OAC use is an independent predictor of 30-day mortality, addition of OAC use to the existing ICH score does not increase the prognostic performance of this score.