Supraventricular Extrasystoles on Standard 12-lead Electrocardiogram Predict New Incident Atrial Fibrillation after Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: The AF-ESUS Study

Electrocardiogram prediction of atrial fibrillation risk after stroke: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most common clinical arrhythmias. This study aims to predict the risk of post-stroke AF through electrocardiographic changes in sinus rhythm.

METHODS

We searched the MEDLINE (PubMed) and EMBASE databases to identify relevant research articles published until August 2023. Prioritized items from systematic reviews and meta-analyses were screened, and data related to AF detection rate were extracted. A meta-analysis using a random-effects model was conducted for data synthesis and analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 32 studies involving electrocardiograms (ECG) were included, with a total analysis population of 330,284 individuals. Among them, 16,662 individuals (ECG abnormal group) developed AF, while 313,622 individuals (ECG normal group) did not. ECG patterns included terminal P-wave terminal force V1, interatrial block (IAB), advanced interatrial block, abnormal P-wave axis, pulse rate prolongation, and atrial premature complexes. Overall, 15,762 patients experienced AF during the study period (4.77%). In the ECG abnormal group, the proportion was 14.21% (2367/16,662), while in the control group (ECG normal group), the proportion was 4.27% (13,395/313,622). The pooled risk ratio for developing AF was 2.45 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.02-2.98, P < .001), with heterogeneity (I2) of 95%. The risk ratio values of alAB, P-wave terminal force V1, interatrial block, abnormal P-wave axis, pulse rate prolongation and atrial premature complexes were 4.12 (95% CI, 2.99-5.66), 1.47 (95% CI, 1.19-1.82), 2.54 (95% CI, 1.83-3.52), 1.70 (95% CI, 0.98-2.97), 2.65 (95% CI, 1.88-3.72), 3.79 (95% CI, 2.12-6.76), respectively.

CONCLUSION

There is a significant correlation between ECG patterns and the occurrence of AF. The alAB exhibited the highest level of predictability for the occurrence of AF. These indicators support their use as screening tools to identify high-risk individuals who may benefit from further examinations or empirical anticoagulation therapy following stroke.

Risk Stratification Tools to Guide a Personalized Approach for Cardiac Monitoring in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source

Current recommendations support a personalized sequential approach for cardiac rhythm monitoring to detect atrial fibrillation after embolic stroke of undetermined source. Several risk stratification scores have been proposed to predict the likelihood of atrial fibrillation after embolic stroke of undetermined source. This systematic review aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the field by identifying risk scores proposed for this purpose, assessing their characteristics and the cohorts in which they were developed and validated, and scrutinizing their predictive performance. We identified 11 risk scores, of which 4 were externally validated. The most frequent variables included were echocardiographic markers and demographics. The areas under the curve ranged between 0.70 and 0.94. The 3 scores with the highest area under the curve were the Decryptoring (0.94 [95% CI, 0.88-1.00]), newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (0.87 [95% CI, 0.79-0.94]), and AF-ESUS (Atrial Fibrillation in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source) (0.85 [95% CI, 0.80-0.87]), of which only the latter was externally validated. Risk stratification scores can guide a personalized approach for cardiac rhythm monitoring after embolic stroke of undetermined source.

Predicting risk of AF in ischaemic stroke using sinus rhythm ECG abnormalities: A meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To identify ECG changes in sinus rhythm that may be used to predict subsequent development of new AF.

METHOD

We identified prospective and retrospective cohort or case control studies evaluating ECG patterns from a 12-lead ECG in sinus rhythm taken in hospital or community predicting subsequent development of new AF. For each identified ECG predictor, we then identify absolute event rates and pooled risk ratios (RR) using an aggregate level random effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 609,496 patients from 22 studies. ECG patterns included P wave terminal force V1 (PTFV1), interatrial block (IAB) and advanced interatrial block (aIAB), abnormal P wave axis (aPWA), PR prolongation and atrial premature complexes (APCs). Pooled risk ratios reached significance for each of these; PTFV1 RR 1.48 (95% CI 1.04-2.10), IAB 2.54 (95% CI 1.64-3.93), aIAB 4.05 (95% CI 2.64-6.22), aPWA 1.89 (95% CI 1.25-2.85), PR prolongation 2.22 (95% CI 1.27-3.87) and APCs 3.71 (95% CI 2.23-6.16). Diabetes reduced the predictive value of PR prolongation.

CONCLUSION

APC and aIAB were most predictive of AF, while IAB, PR prolongation, PTFV1 and aPWA were also significantly associated with development of AF. These support their use in a screening tool to identify at risk cohorts who may benefit from further investigation, or following stroke, with empirical anticoagulation.

Atrial Fibrillation Risk Assessment after Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source

OBJECTIVE

Approximately 20% of strokes are embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS). Undetected atrial fibrillation (AF) remains an important cause. Yet, oral anticoagulation in unselected ESUS patients failed in secondary stroke prevention. Guidance on effective AF detection is lacking. Here, we introduce a novel, non-invasive AF risk assessment after ESUS.

METHODS

Catch-Up ESUS is an investigator-initiated, observational cohort study conducted between 2018 and 2019 at the Munich University Hospital. Besides clinical characteristics, patients received ≥72 h digital electrocardiogram recordings to generate the rhythm irregularity burden. Uni- and multivariable regression models predicted the primary endpoint of incident AF, ascertained by standardized follow-up including implantable cardiac monitors. Predictors included the novel rhythm irregularity burden constructed from digital electrocardiogram recordings. We independently validated our model in ESUS patients from the University Hospital Tübingen, Germany.

RESULTS

A total of 297 ESUS patients were followed for 15.6 ± 7.6 months. Incident AF (46 patients, 15.4%) occurred after a median of 105 days (25th to 75th percentile 31-33 days). Secondary outcomes were recurrent stroke in 7.7% and death in 6.1%. Multivariable-adjusted analyses identified the rhythm irregularity burden as the strongest AF-predictor (hazard ratio 3.12, 95% confidence interval 1.62-5.80, p < 0001) while accounting for the known risk factors age, CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc-Score, and NT-proBNP. Independent validation confirmed the rhythm irregularity burden as the most significant AF-predictor (hazard ratio 2.20, 95% confidence interval 1.45-3.33, p < 0001).

INTERPRETATION

The novel, non-invasive, electrocardiogram-based rhythm irregularity burden may help adjudicating AF risk after ESUS, and subsequently guide AF-detection after ESUS. Clinical trials need to clarify if high-AF risk patients benefit from tailored secondary stroke prevention. ANN NEUROL 2023;93:479-488.

Excessive Supraventricular Ectopic Activity and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Excessive supraventricular ectopic activity (ESVEA) is correlated with the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) and is frequently observed in ischemic stroke patients. This meta-analysis aims to summarize the evidence on the association between ESVEA and the risk of AF and stroke.

METHODS

PubMed and Embase databases were systematically searched to identify all publications providing relevant data from inception to 23 August 2022. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were pooled using fixed-effect or random-effect models.

RESULTS

We included 23,272 participants from 20 studies. Pooled results showed that ESVEA was associated with an increased risk of AF in the general population (HR: 2.57; 95% CI 2.16-3.05), increased risk of AF in ischemic stroke patients (HR: 2.91; 95% CI 1.80-4.69), new-onset ischemic stroke (HR: 1.91; 95% CI 1.30-2.79), and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.41; 95% CI 1.24-1.59). Pooled analysis indicated that ESVEA was not associated with recurrent ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) (HR: 1.24; 95% CI 0.91-1.67).

CONCLUSIONS

ESVEA is associated with AF, new-onset ischemic stroke, and all-cause mortality.

Review and update of the concept of embolic stroke of undetermined source

Ischaemic strokes have traditionally been classified according to the TOAST criteria, in which strokes with unclear aetiology are classified as cryptogenic strokes. However, the definition of cryptogenic stroke did not meet the operational criteria necessary to define patient populations for randomized treatment trials. To address this problem, the concept of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) was developed and published in 2014. A hypothesis that underpinned this concept was that most strokes in patients with ESUS are caused by embolic events, perhaps many cardioembolic, and that anticoagulation would prevent secondary ischaemic events. On this basis, two large randomized trials were conducted to compare the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) dabigatran and rivaroxaban with aspirin. Neither NOAC was superior to aspirin in these trials, although subgroups of patients with ESUS seemed to benefit specifically from anticoagulation or antiplatelet therapy. The neutral results of the trials of anticoagulation and insights into ESUS from research conducted since the concept was introduced warrant reassessment of the ESUS construct as a research concept and a treatment target. In this Review, we discuss the evidence produced since the concept of ESUS was introduced, and propose updates to the criteria and diagnostic algorithm in light of the latest knowledge.

European Stroke Organisation (ESO) guideline on screening for subclinical atrial fibrillation after stroke or transient ischaemic attack of undetermined origin

We aimed to provide practical recommendations for the screening of subclinical atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) of undetermined origin. These guidelines are based on the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology. Five relevant Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome questions were defined by a multidisciplinary module working group (MWG).

Longer duration of cardiac rhythm monitoring increases the detection of subclinical AF, but the optimal monitoring length is yet to be defined. We advise longer monitoring to increase the rate of anticoagulation, but whether longer monitoring improves clinical outcomes needs to be addressed. AF detection does not differ from in- or out-patient ECG-monitoring with similar monitoring duration, so we consider it reasonable to initiate in-hospital monitoring as soon as possible and continue with outpatient monitoring for more than 48h. Although insertable loop recorders (ILR) increase AF detection based on their longer monitoring duration, comparison with non-implantable ECG devices for similar monitoring time is lacking. We suggest the use of implantable devices, if feasible, for AF detection instead of non- implantable devices to increase the detection of subclinical AF. There is weak evidence of a useful role for blood, ECG, and brain imaging biomarkers for the identification of patients at high risk of AF. In patients with patent foramen ovale, we found insufficient evidence from RCT, but prolonged cardiac monitoring in patients >55 years is advisable for subclinical AF detection. To conclude, in adult patients with ischaemic stroke or TIA of undetermined origin, we recommend longer duration of cardiac rhythm monitoring of more than 48h and if feasible with IRL to increase the detection of subclinical AF.

A critical assessment of the current pharmacotherapy for the treatment of embolic strokes of undetermined source

INTRODUCTION

"Embolic stroke of undetermined source" (ESUS) is a term coined to identify non-lacunar stroke whose mechanism is likely to be embolic, and the source remains unidentified. The best antithrombotic treatment for preventing stroke recurrence in this population has not been delineated.

AREAS COVERED

The authors summarize and critically appraise the currently available evidence about the antithrombotic treatment for preventing stroke recurrence in patients with ESUS. Randomized trials addressing this topic were identified through MEDLINE (accessed by PubMed, as of November 2021, week 4).

EXPERT OPINION

Recent randomized trials have failed to demonstrate a significant benefit of direct oral anticoagulants over aspirin in reducing the recurrence of cerebral infarctions in unselected cohorts of patients with ESUS. The heterogeneity and often overlap of embolic sources may be possible explanations for the overall absence of a benefit of oral anticoagulants in ESUS as a single homogeneous entity. The results of these trials and their subgroup analyses have provided important cues to understand the pathophysiology of ESUS. They have, furthermore, increased in the interest in researchers in identifying distinct etiological phenotypes within this stroke population. There is a good rationale for ongoing and future investigations in order to tailor antithrombotic treatment according to individual features of patients with ESUS.

Measurement of Midregional Pro-Atrial Natriuretic Peptide to Discover Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) is a promising biomarker to differentiate the underlying etiology of acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine the role of MR-proANP for classification as cardioembolic (CE) stroke, identification of newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (NDAF), and risk assessment for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

METHODS

This study measured MR-proANP prospectively collected within 24 hours after symptom-onset in patients with AIS from the multicenter BIOSIGNAL (Biomarker Signature of Stroke Aetiology) cohort study. Primary outcomes were CE stroke etiology and NDAF after prolonged cardiac monitoring, as well as a composite outcome of MACE (recurrent cerebrovascular events, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular death) within 1 year. Logistic/Poisson and subproportional hazard regression were applied to evaluate the association between MR-proANP levels and outcomes. Additionally, a model for prediction of NDAF was derived and validated as a decision tool for immediate clinical application.

RESULTS

Between October 1, 2014, and October 31, 2017, this study recruited 1,759 patients. Log₁₀MR-proANP levels were associated with CE stroke (OR: 7.96; 95% CI: 4.82-13.14; risk ratio: 3.12; 95% CI: 2.23-4.37), as well as NDAF (OR: 35.3; 95% CI: 17.58-71.03; risk ratio: 11.47; 95% CI: 6.74-19.53), and MACE (subdistributional HR: 2.02; 95% CI: 1.32-3.08) during follow-up. The model to predict NDAF including only age and MR-proANP levels had a good discriminatory capacity with an area under the curve of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.76-0.86), was well calibrated (calibration in the large: -0.086; calibration slope 1.053), and yielded higher net-benefit compared with validated scores to predict NDAF (AS5F score, CHA₂DS₂-VASc [Congestive Heart Failure, Hypertension, Age ≥65 or ≥75, Diabetes, Prior Cardioembolic Event, (female) Sex, or Vascular Disease] score).

CONCLUSIONS

MR-proANP is a valid biomarker to determine risk of NDAF and MACE in patients with AIS and can be used as a decision tool to identify patients for prolonged cardiac monitoring. (Biomarker Signature of Stroke Aetiology Study: The BIOSIGNAL study [BIOSIGNAL]; NCT02274727).

Atrial cardiopathy and non-stenotic intracranial complicated atherosclerotic plaque in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source

OBJECTIVE

To assess (1) the association between atrial cardiopathy (AC) and non-stenotic intracranial complicated atherosclerotic plaque (NICAP) in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) or small-vessel disease (SVD), and (2) the performance of previously proposed biomarkers to identify AC as the underlying aetiology in ESUS.

METHODS

Based on our high-resolution MRI (HR-MRI) cohort, 403 subjects (243 ESUS and 160 SVD) were enrolled in the final analysis. All patients underwent intracranial HR-MRI to assess the presence of ipsilateral NICAP. Biomarkers of AC (ie, P-wave terminal force in lead V1 (PTFV1) on ECG, N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and left atrial diameter) were collected within 24 hours after admission.

RESULTS

Among patients without ipsilateral NICAP, we found an association between the presence of AC (adjusted OR (aOR): 4.76, 95% CI 2.48 to 9.14), increased PTFV1 (aOR: 5.70, 95% CI: 2.43 to 13.39) and NT-proBNP (aOR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.16 to 2.35) with ESUS. This association was not evident among patients with ipsilateral NICAP. The discrimination between ESUS versus SVD by AC/AC-related biomarkers was significantly improved after excluding ipsilateral NICAP. Similarly, the discrimination between ESUS and SVD by ipsilateral NICAP was notably augmented after excluding AC, PTFV1 and NT-proBNP.

INTERPRETATION

AC is more prevalent in patients who had ESUS without ipsilateral NICAP compared with patients with, implying that AC and ipsilateral NICAP are two distinct, competing aetiologies of ESUS. Among the AC biomarkers studied in this analysis, PTFV1 seems to be the most informative.

Premature atrial complexes can predict atrial fibrillation in ischemic stroke patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Several studies have explored premature atrial complexes (PACs) as high-risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) in ischemic stroke patients; however, the results were controversial. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to examine whether PACs can predict AF in ischemic stroke patients.

METHODS

We comprehensively searched the published literature in PubMed, Embase, and Wiley-Cochrane library databases from inception through August 18, 2020. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were analyzed by the fixed-effect model or the random-effect model based on heterogeneity.

RESULTS

We identified 12 eligible studies including 2340 stroke patients with a mean age of 65.9 years. PACs were highly associated with AF occurrence in stroke (pooled OR: 4.16, 95% CI: 3.06-5.65) and cryptogenic stroke patients (pooled OR: 3.72, 95% CI: 2.66-5.20). Subgroup analysis showed PAC presence and frequent PACs were correlated with stroke in AF patients (pooled OR: 3.72, 95% CI: 1.65-8.36 and pooled OR: 5.12, 95% CI: 3.12-8.41, respectively). Frequent PACs were identified as the risks for asymptomatic AF (OR: 6.18, 95% CI: 3.23-11.83) and future AF occurrence (OR: 3.71, 95% CI: 2.62-5.26) in stroke patients. The definition of frequent PACs was inconsistent, and was >70 beats/24 h based on Holter monitoring.

CONCLUSIONS

PACs confer high risks for asymptomatic AF and future AF occurrence in stroke patients.

Atrial cardiopathy in embolic stroke of undetermined source

INTRODUCTION

Atrial cardiopathy is one of the most common potential sources of thromboembolism for embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). The study aims to investigate the incidence of atrial cardiopathy (defined by severe left atrial enlargement (sLAE) or elevated serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) > 250 pg/ml) in patients with ESUS and compare with other stroke subtypes.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data of 936 consecutive patients with diffusion-weighted imaging-confirmed acute ischemic stroke. The incidence of atrial cardiopathy was examined in ESUS, large artery atherosclerosis (LAA), and small vessel disease (SVD) strokes. Clinical characteristics were compared between ESUS patients with atrial cardiopathy (AC-ESUS) and patients with atrial fibrillation-induced cardioembolism (AF-CE) stroke.

RESULTS

245 patients were diagnosed with ESUS, while others were diagnosed with LAA (n = 312), SVD (n = 258), and AF-CE (n = 121) strokes. The incidence of sLAE in ESUS patients was higher than in LAA or SVD group (5.3% vs. 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, p = .005) and higher than in combined LAA/SVD group (5.3% vs. 1.4%, p = .001). The incidence of elevated serum NT-proBNP in ESUS patients was not statistically different from that in LAA or SVD group. Compared with patients with AF-CE stroke, AC-ESUS patients had milder manifestations, had less hemorrhagic transformation, had better short-term outcome, and had fewer in-hospital complications.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of sLAE was higher in ESUS patients than in patients with noncardioembolic strokes. AC-ESUS was milder when compared to AF-CE stroke.

Different aspects of early and late development of atrial fibrillation during hospitalization in cryptogenic stroke

The detection of underlying atrial fibrillation (AF) has become increasingly possible by insertable cardiac monitoring (ICM). During hospitalization for cryptogenic stroke, factors related to the early and late development of AF have not been studied. CHALLENGE ESUS/CS is a multicenter registry of cryptogenic stroke patients undergoing transesophageal echocardiography. Twelve-lead electrocardiogram, continuous cardiac monitoring, and 24-h Holter electrocardiogram were all used for the detection of AF. Early and late detection of AF was determined with an allocation ratio of 1:1 among patients with AF. A total of 677 patients (68.7 ± 12.8 years; 455 men) were enrolled, and 64 patients developed AF during hospitalization. Four days after admission was identified as the approximate median day to classify early and late phases to detect AF: ≤ 4 days, 37 patients; > 4 days, 27 patients. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) (OR 5.91; 95% CI 2.19–15.97; p < 0.001) was associated with AF ≤ 4 days, whereas a large infarction > 3 cm in diameter (OR 3.28; 95% CI 1.35–7.97; p = 0.009) was associated with AF > 4 days. SEC and large infarctions were important predictors of in-hospital AF detection, particularly in the early and late stages, respectively; thus, they could serve as indications for recommending ICM.

Data-driven machine-learning analysis of potential embolic sources in embolic stroke of undetermined source

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Hierarchical clustering, a common 'unsupervised' machine-learning algorithm, is advantageous for exploring potential underlying aetiology in particularly heterogeneous diseases. We investigated potential embolic sources in embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) using a data-driven machine-learning method, and explored variation in stroke recurrence between clusters.

METHODS

We used a hierarchical k-means clustering algorithm on patients' baseline data, which assigned each individual into a unique clustering group, using a minimum-variance method to calculate the similarity between ESUS patients based on all baseline features. Potential embolic sources were categorised into atrial cardiopathy, atrial fibrillation, arterial disease, left ventricular disease, cardiac valvulopathy, patent foramen ovale (PFO) and cancer.

RESULTS

Among 800 consecutive ESUS patients (43.3% women, median age 67 years), the optimal number of clusters was four. Left ventricular disease was most prevalent in cluster 1 (present in all patients) and perfectly associated with cluster 1. PFO was most prevalent in cluster 2 (38.9% of patients) and associated significantly with increased likelihood of cluster 2 [adjusted odds ratio: 2.69, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.64-4.41]. Arterial disease was most prevalent in cluster 3 (57.7%) and associated with increased likelihood of cluster 3 (adjusted odds ratio: 2.21, 95% CI: 1.43-3.13). Atrial cardiopathy was most prevalent in cluster 4 (100%) and perfectly associated with cluster 4. Cluster 3 was the largest cluster involving 53.7% of patients. Atrial fibrillation was not significantly associated with any cluster.

CONCLUSIONS

This data-driven machine-learning analysis identified four clusters of ESUS that were strongly associated with arterial disease, atrial cardiopathy, PFO and left ventricular disease, respectively. More than half of the patients were assigned to the cluster associated with arterial disease.

Identification of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source and low risk of new incident atrial fibrillation: The AF-ESUS score

Background and aims

Only a minority of patients with Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) receive prolonged cardiac monitoring despite current recommendations. The identification of ESUS patients who have low probability of new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) could potentially support a strategy of more individualized allocation of available resources and hence, increase their diagnostic yield. We aimed to develop a tool that can identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF.

Methods

We performed multivariate stepwise regression in a pooled dataset of consecutive ESUS patients from three prospective stroke registries to identify predictors of new incident AF. The coefficient of each independent covariate of the fitted multivariable model was used to generate an integer-based point scoring system.

Results

Among 839 patients (43.1% women, median age 67.0 years) followed-up for a median of 24.3 months (2999 patient-years), 125 (14.9%) had new incident AF. The proposed score assigns 3 points for age ≥ 60 years; 2 points for hypertension; −1 point for left ventricular hypertrophy reported at echocardiography; 2 points for left atrial diameter >40 mm; −3 points for left ventricular ejection fraction <35%; 1 point for the presence of any supraventricular extrasystole recorded during all available 12-lead standard electrocardiograms performed during hospitalization for the ESUS; −2 points for subcortical infarct; −3 points for the presence of non-stenotic carotid plaques. The rate of new incident AF during follow-up was 1.97% among the 42.3% of the cohort who had a score of ≤0, compared to 26.9% in patients with > 0 (relative risk: 13.7, 95%CI: 5.9--31.5). The area under the curve of the score was 84.8% (95%CI: 79.9--86.9%). The sensitivity and negative predictive value of a score of ≤0 for new incident AF during follow-up were 94.9% (95%CI: 89.3--98.1%) and 98.0% (95%CI: 95.8--99.3%), respectively.

Conclusions

The proposed AF-ESUS score has high sensitivity and high negative predictive value to identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF. Patients with a score of 1 or more may be better candidates for prolonged automated cardiac monitoring.

Clinical trial registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov / Unique identifier: NCT02766205.