An agent-based model for predicting the prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi I and II in their host and vector populations

Genetic diversity of Trypanosoma cruzi strains isolated from chronic chagasic patients and non-human hosts in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Trypanosoma cruzi shows an exuberant genetic diversity. Currently, seven phylogenetic lineages, called discrete typing units (DTUs), are recognised: TcI-TcVI and Tcbat. Despite advances in studies on T. cruzi and its populations, there is no consensus regarding its heterogeneity.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to perform molecular characterisation of T. cruzi strains, isolated in the state of São Paulo, to identify the DTUs involved and evaluate their genetic diversity.

METHODS

T. cruzi strains were isolated from biological samples of chronic chagasic patients, marsupials and triatomines through culture techniques and subjected to molecular characterisation using the fluorescent fragment length barcoding (FFLB) technique. Subsequently, the results were correlated with complementary information to enable better discrimination between the identified DTUs.

FINDINGS

It was possible to identify TcI in two humans and two triatomines; TcII/VI in 19 humans, two marsupials and one triatomine; and TcIII in one human host, an individual that also presented a result for TcI, which indicated the possibility of a mixed infection. Regarding the strains characterised by the TcII/VI profile, the correlation with complementary information allowed to suggest that, in general, these parasite populations indeed correspond to the TcII genotype.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

The TcII/VI profile, associated with domestic cycles and patients with chronic Chagas disease, was the most prevalent among the identified DTUs. Furthermore, the correlation of the study results with complementary information made it possible to suggest that TcII is the predominant lineage of this work.

Lethal and Sublethal Effects of Pyriproxyfen on Apis and Non-Apis Bees

Pyriproxyfen is a juvenile hormone mimic used extensively worldwide to fight pests in agriculture and horticulture. It also has numerous applications as larvicide in vector control. The molecule disrupts metamorphosis and adult emergence in the target insects. The same types of adverse effects are expected on non-target insects. In this context, the objective of this study was to evaluate the existing information on the toxicity of pyriproxyfen on the honey bee (Apis mellifera) and non-Apis bees (bumble bees, solitary bees, and stingless bees). The goal was also to identify the gaps necessary to fill. Thus, whereas the acute and sublethal toxicity of pyriproxyfen against A. mellifera is well-documented, the information is almost lacking for the non-Apis bees. The direct and indirect routes of exposure of the non-Apis bees to pyriproxyfen also need to be identified and quantified. More generally, the impacts of pyriproxyfen on the reproductive success of the different bee species have to be evaluated as well as the potential adverse effects of its metabolites.

Trypanosoma cruzi transmission dynamics in a synanthropic and domesticated host community

Trypanosoma cruzi is the causative agent of Chagas disease, a Neglected Tropical Disease affecting 8 million people in the Americas. Triatomine hematophagous vectors feed on a high diversity of vertebrate species that can be reservoirs or dead-end hosts, such as avian species refractory to T. cruzi. To understand its transmission dynamics in synanthropic and domesticated species living within villages is essential to quantify disease risk and assess the potential of zooprophylaxis. We developed a SI model of T. cruzi transmission in a multi-host community where vector reproduction and parasite transmission depend on a triatomine blood-feeding rate accounting for vector host preferences and interference while feeding. The model was parameterized to describe T. cruzi transmission in villages of the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico, using the information about Triatoma dimidiata vectors and host populations accumulated over the past 15 years. Extensive analyses of the model showed that dogs are key reservoirs and contributors to human infection, as compared to synanthropic rodents and cats, while chickens or other domesticated avian hosts dilute T. cruzi transmission despite increasing vector abundance. In this context, reducing the number of dogs or increasing avian hosts abundance decreases incidence in humans by up to 56% and 39%, respectively, while combining such changes reduces incidence by 71%. Although such effects are only reached over >10-years periods, they represent important considerations to be included in the design of cost-effective Integrated Vector Management. The concomitant reduction in T. cruzi vector prevalence estimated by simulating these zooprophylactic interventions could indeed complement the removal of colonies from the peridomiciles or the use of insect screens that lower vector indoor abundance by ~60% and ~80%. These new findings reinforce the idea that education and community empowerment to reduce basic risk factors is a cornerstone to reach and sustain the key objective of interrupting Chagas disease intra-domiciliary transmission.

Detailed ecological associations of triatomines revealed by metabarcoding and next-generation sequencing: implications for triatomine behavior and Trypanosoma cruzi transmission cycles

Trypanosoma cruzi is the agent of Chagas disease, transmitted by hematophagous triatomine vectors. Establishing transmission cycles is key to understand the epidemiology of the disease, but integrative assessments of ecological interactions shaping parasite transmission are still limited. Current approaches also lack sensitivity to assess the full extent of this ecological diversity. Here we developed a metabarcoding approach based on next-generation sequencing to identify triatomine gut microbiome, vertebrate feeding hosts, and parasite diversity and their potential interactions. We detected a dynamic microbiome in Triatoma dimidiata, including 23 bacterial orders, which differed according to blood sources. Fourteen vertebrate species served as blood sources, corresponding to domestic, synantropic and sylvatic species, although four (human, dog, cow and mice) accounted for over 50% of blood sources. Importantly, bugs fed on multiple hosts, with up to 11 hosts identified per bug, indicating very frequent host-switching. A high clonal diversity of T. cruzi was detected, with up to 20 haplotypes per bug. This analysis provided much greater sensitivity to detect multiple blood meals and multiclonal infections with T. cruzi, which should be taken into account to develop transmission networks, and characterize the risk for human infection, eventually leading to a better control of disease transmission.

Expert judgment based multicriteria decision models to assess the risk of pesticides on reproduction failures of grey partridge

A suite of models is proposed for estimating the risk of pesticides against the grey partridge (Perdix perdix) and their clutches. Radio-tracked data of females, description and location of the clutches, and data on the pesticide treatments during the laying periods of the partridges were used as basic information. Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) and quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) modelling allowed us to characterize the pesticides by their 1-octanol/water partition coefficient (log P), vapour pressure, primary and ultimate biodegradation potential, acute toxicity (LD₅₀) on P. perdix, and endocrine disruption potential. From these physicochemical and toxicological data, the system of integration of risk with interaction of scores (SIRIS) method was used to design scores of risk for pesticides, alone or in mixture. A program, written in R (version 3.1.1), called Simulation of Toxicity in Perdix perdix (SimToxPP), was designed for estimating the risk of substances, considered alone or in mixture, against the grey partridge during breeding. The software tool is flexible enough to simulate realistic in situ scenarios. Different examples of applications are shown. The advantages and limitations of the approach are briefly discussed.

Epidemiological modeling of Trypanosoma cruzi: Low stercorarian transmission and failure of host adaptive immunity explain the frequency of mixed infections in humans

People living in areas with active vector-borne transmission of Chagas disease have multiple contacts with its causative agent, Trypanosoma cruzi. Reinfections by T. cruzi are possible at least in animal models leading to lower or even hardly detectable parasitaemia. In humans, although reinfections are thought to have major public health implications by increasing the risk of chronic manifestations of the disease, there is little quantitative knowledge about their frequency and the timing of parasite re-inoculation in the course of the disease. Here, we implemented stochastic agent-based models i) to estimate the rate of re-inoculation in humans and ii) to assess how frequent are reinfections during the acute and chronic stages of the disease according to alternative hypotheses on the adaptive immune response following a primary infection. By using a hybrid genetic algorithm, the models were fitted to epidemiological data of Argentinean rural villages where mixed infections by different genotypes of T. cruzi reach 56% in humans. To explain this percentage, the best model predicted 0.032 (0.008-0.042) annual reinfections per individual with 98.4% of them occurring in the chronic phase. In addition, the parasite escapes to the adaptive immune response mounted after the primary infection in at least 20% of the events of re-inoculation. With these low annual rates, the risks of reinfection during the typically long chronic stage of the disease stand around 14% (4%-18%) and 60% (21%-70%) after 5 and 30 years, with most individuals being re-infected 1-3 times overall. These low rates are better explained by the weak efficiency of the stercorarian mode of transmission than a highly efficient adaptive immune response. Those estimates are of particular interest for vaccine development and for our understanding of the higher risk of chronic disease manifestations suffered by infected people living in endemic areas.

Prediction and Prevention of Parasitic Diseases Using a Landscape Genomics Framework

Substantial heterogeneity exists in the dispersal, distribution and transmission of parasitic species. Understanding and predicting how such features are governed by the ecological variation of landscape they inhabit is the central goal of spatial epidemiology. Genetic data can further inform functional connectivity among parasite, host and vector populations in a landscape. Gene flow correlates with the spread of epidemiologically relevant phenotypes among parasite and vector populations (e.g., virulence, drug and pesticide resistance), as well as invasion and re-invasion risk where parasite transmission is absent due to current or past intervention measures. However, the formal integration of spatial and genetic data ('landscape genetics') is scarcely ever applied to parasites. Here, we discuss the specific challenges and practical prospects for the use of landscape genetics and genomics to understand the biology and control of parasitic disease and present a practical framework for doing so.

Over Six Thousand Trypanosoma cruzi Strains Classified into Discrete Typing Units (DTUs): Attempt at an Inventory

Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease, presents wide genetic diversity. Currently, six discrete typing units (DTUs), named TcI to TcVI, and a seventh one called TcBat are used for strain typing. Beyond the debate concerning this classification, this systematic review has attempted to provide an inventory by compiling the results of 137 articles that have used it. A total of 6,343 DTU identifications were analyzed according to the geographical and host origins. Ninety-one percent of the data available is linked to South America. This sample, although not free of potential bias, nevertheless provides today's picture of T. cruzi genetic diversity that is closest to reality. DTUs were genotyped from 158 species, including 42 vector species. Remarkably, TcI predominated in the overall sample (around 60%), in both sylvatic and domestic cycles. This DTU known to present a high genetic diversity, is very widely distributed geographically, compatible with a long-term evolution. The marsupial is thought to be its most ancestral host and the Gran Chaco region the place of its putative origin. TcII was rarely sampled (9.6%), absent, or extremely rare in North and Central America, and more frequently identified in domestic cycles than in sylvatic cycles. It has a low genetic diversity and has probably found refuge in some mammal species. It is thought to originate in the south-Amazon area. TcIII and TcIV were also rarely sampled. They showed substantial genetic diversity and are thought to be composed of possible polyphyletic subgroups. Even if they are mostly associated with sylvatic transmission cycles, a total of 150 human infections with these DTUs have been reported. TcV and TcVI are clearly associated with domestic transmission cycles. Less than 10% of these DTUs were identified together in sylvatic hosts. They are thought to originate in the Gran Chaco region, where they are predominant and where putative parents exist (TcII and TcIII). Trends in host-DTU specificities exist, but generally it seems that the complexity of the cycles and the participation of numerous vectors and mammal hosts in a shared area, maintains DTU diversity.

Invasion speeds of Triatoma dimidiata, vector of Chagas disease: An application of orthogonal polynomials method

Demographic processes and spatial dispersal of Triatoma dimidiata, a triatomine species vector of Chagas disease, are modeled by integrodifference equations to estimate invasion capacity of this species under different ecological conditions. The application of the theory of orthogonal polynomials and the steepest descent method applied to these equations, allow a good approximation of the abundance of the adult female population and the invasion speed. We show that: (1) under the same mean conditions of demography and dispersal, periodic spatial dispersal results in an invasion speed 2.5 times larger than the invasion speed when spatial dispersal is continuous; (2) when the invasion speed of periodic spatial dispersal is correlated to adverse demographic conditions, it is 34.7% higher as compared to a periodic dispersal that is correlated to good demographic conditions. From our results we conclude, in terms of triatomine population control, that the invasive success of T. dimidiata may be most sensitive to the probability of transition from juvenile to adult stage. We discuss our main theoretical predictions in the light of observed data in different triatomines species found in the literature.

Agent-based mathematical modeling as a tool for estimating Trypanosoma cruzi vector-host contact rates

The parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, spread by triatomine vectors, affects over 100 mammalian species throughout the Americas, including humans, in whom it causes Chagas' disease. In the U.S., only a few autochthonous cases have been documented in humans, but prevalence is high in sylvatic hosts (primarily raccoons in the southeast and woodrats in Texas). The sylvatic transmission of T. cruzi is spread by the vector species Triatoma sanguisuga and Triatoma gerstaeckeri biting their preferred hosts and thus creating multiple interacting vector-host cycles. The goal of this study is to quantify the rate of contacts between different host and vector species native to Texas using an agent-based model framework. The contact rates, which represent bites, are required to estimate transmission coefficients, which can be applied to models of infection dynamics. In addition to quantitative estimates, results confirm host irritability (in conjunction with host density) and vector starvation thresholds and dispersal as determining factors for vector density as well as host-vector contact rates.

Host switching vs. host sharing in overlapping sylvatic Trypanosoma cruzi transmission cycles

The principle of competitive exclusion is well established for multiple populations competing for the same resource, and simple models for multistrain infection exhibit it as well when cross-immunity precludes coinfections. However, multiple hosts provide niches for different pathogens to occupy simultaneously. This is the case for the vector-borne parasite Trypanosoma cruzi in overlapping sylvatic transmission cycles in the Americas, where it is enzootic. This study uses cycles in the USA involving two different hosts but the same vector species as a context for the study of the mechanisms behind the communication between the two cycles. Vectors dispersing in search of new hosts may be considered to move between the two cycles (host switching) or, more simply, to divide their time between the two host types (host sharing). Analysis considers host switching as an intermediate case between isolated cycles and intermingled cycles (host sharing) in order to examine the role played by the host-switching rate in permitting coexistence of multiple strains in a single-host population. Results show that although the population dynamics (demographic equilibria) in host-switching models align well with those in the limiting models (host sharing or isolated cycles), infection dynamics differ significantly, in ways that sometimes illuminate the underlying epidemiology (such as differing host susceptibilities to infection) and sometimes reveal model limitations (such as host switching dominating the infection dynamics). Numerical work suggests that the model explains the trace presence of TcI in raccoons but not the more significant co-persistence observed in woodrats.

Ecology, evolution and control of Chagas disease: a century of neglected modelling and a promising future

More than 100 years after its formal description, Chagas disease remains a major public health concern in Latin America with a yearly burden of 430,000 Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). The aetiological agent, a protozoan named Trypanosoma cruzi, is mainly transmitted to mammalian hosts by triatomine vectors. Multiple species of mammals and triatomines can harbour and transmit the parasite, and the feeding range of triatomine species typically includes many noncompetent hosts. Furthermore, the transmission of the pathogen can occur via several routes including the typical vector's faeces, but also oral, congenital and blood transfusion routes. These ecological and epidemiological complexities of the disease have hindered many control initiatives. In such a context, mathematical models provide invaluable tools to explore and understand the dynamics of T. cruzi transmission, and to design, optimize and monitor the efficacy of control interventions. We intend here to provide the first review of the mathematical models of Chagas disease, focussing on how they have contributed to our understanding of (1) the population dynamics and control of triatomine vectors, and (2) the epidemiology of T. cruzi infections. We also aim at suggesting promising lines of modelling that could further improve our understanding of the ecology, evolution, and control of the disease.

Perspectives on why digital ecologies matter: combining population genetics and ecologically informed agent-based models with GIS for managing dipteran livestock pests

It is becoming clear that handling the inherent complexity found in ecological systems is an essential task for finding ways to control insect pests of tropical livestock such as tsetse flies, and old and new world screwworms. In particular, challenging multivalent management programs, such as Area Wide Integrated Pest Management (AW-IPM), face daunting problems of complexity at multiple spatial scales, ranging from landscape level processes to those of smaller scales such as the parasite loads of individual animals. Daunting temporal challenges also await resolution, such as matching management time frames to those found on ecological and even evolutionary temporal scales. How does one deal with representing processes with models that involve multiple spatial and temporal scales? Agent-based models (ABM), combined with geographic information systems (GIS), may allow for understanding, predicting and managing pest control efforts in livestock pests. This paper argues that by incorporating digital ecologies in our management efforts clearer and more informed decisions can be made. I also point out the power of these models in making better predictions in order to anticipate the range of outcomes possible or likely.

Influence of vectors' risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity on the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases: the example of Chagas' disease

Insects are known to display strategies that spread the risk of encountering unfavorable conditions, thereby decreasing the extinction probability of genetic lineages in unpredictable environments. To what extent these strategies influence the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases in stochastic environments is largely unknown. In triatomines, the vectors of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas’ disease, juvenile development time varies between individuals and such variation most likely decreases the extinction risk of vector populations in stochastic environments. We developed a simplified multi-stage vector-borne SI epidemiological model to investigate how vector risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity influence the prevalence and evolution of a parasite. This model is based on available knowledge on triatomine biodemography, but its conceptual outcomes apply, to a certain extent, to other vector-borne diseases. Model comparisons between deterministic and stochastic settings led to the conclusion that environmental stochasticity, vector risk-spreading strategies (in particular an increase in the length and variability of development time) and their interaction have drastic consequences on vector population dynamics, disease prevalence, and the relative short-term evolution of parasite virulence. Our work shows that stochastic environments and associated risk-spreading strategies can increase the prevalence of vector-borne diseases and favor the invasion of more virulent parasite strains on relatively short evolutionary timescales. This study raises new questions and challenges in a context of increasingly unpredictable environmental variations as a result of global climate change and human interventions such as habitat destruction or vector control.

Invasion speed in cellular automaton models for T. cruzi vector migration

The parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, known for causing Chagas' disease, is spread via insect vectors from the triatomine family. T. cruzi is maintained in sylvatic vector-host transmission cycles in certain parts of the Americas. Communication between the cycles occurs mainly through movement (migration) of the insect vectors. In this study, we develop a cellular automaton (CA) model in order to study invasion of a hypothetical strain of T. cruzi through the region defined by the primary sylvatic cycles in northern Mexico and parts of the southeastern United States. The model given is a deterministic CA, which can be described as a large metapopulation model in the format of a dynamical system with 9,376 equations. The migration rates in the model, used as coupling parameters between cells in the CA, are estimated by summing up the proportion of vectors crossing patch boundaries (i.e., crossing from one cell to another). Specifically, we develop methods for estimating speed and direction of invasion as a function of vector migration rates, including preference for a particular direction of migration. We develop two methods for estimating invasion speed: via orthogonal local velocity components and by direct computation of magnitude and direction of an overall velocity vector given a front created by cells identified as being invaded by the epidemic. Results indicate that invasion speed is greatly affected by both the physical and the epidemiological landscapes through which the infection wave passes. A power-law fit suggests that invasion speed increases at slightly less than the square root of increases in migration rate.

Predominance of hybrid discrete typing units of Trypanosoma cruzi in domestic Triatoma infestans from the Bolivian Gran Chaco region

In the Gran Chaco region the reinfestation by Triatoma infestans remains a major problem for control of Chagas disease. Trypanosoma cruzi the agent of the illness presents a broad genetic intraspecific variability which is poorly documented in the Bolivian Gran Chaco. This work presents the identification of the discrete typing units (DTUs) currently recognized for T. cruzi in T. infestans populations collected before and after residual insecticide spraying in four villages in this region. Before spraying, of 84 samples, the frequencies of the DTUs identified by using the multiplex PCR based on the non transcribed spacer of the mini-exon gene (MMPCR) were 0.21 for TcI, 0.70 for TcII/TcV/TcVI, and 0.17 for TcIII/TcIV and no significant difference was observed after spraying (76 samples). Moreover 13% of the total sample corresponds to T. infestans specimens with mixed infection of DTUs of which three were TcII/TcV/TcVI with TcIII/TcIV. The partial sequences of T. cruzi Gpi gene obtained from 14 PCR products agree the MMPCR DTU identification and allowed to precise the occurrence of TcIII, TcII and hybrid TcV/TcVI stocks which were not discriminated by the MMPCR. Given the high prevalence of hybrid stocks, the authors ask whether the recombination event at the origin of hybrids would have taken place in the Gran Chaco where the putative parents are also present.

Emergence and prevalence of human vector-borne diseases in sink vector populations

Vector-borne diseases represent a major public health concern in most tropical and subtropical areas, and an emerging threat for more developed countries. Our understanding of the ecology, evolution and control of these diseases relies predominantly on theory and data on pathogen transmission in large self-sustaining ‘source’ populations of vectors representative of highly endemic areas. However, there are numerous places where environmental conditions are less favourable to vector populations, but where immigration allows them to persist. We built an epidemiological model to investigate the dynamics of six major human vector borne-diseases in such non self-sustaining ‘sink’ vector populations. The model was parameterized through a review of the literature, and we performed extensive sensitivity analysis to look at the emergence and prevalence of the pathogen that could be encountered in these populations. Despite the low vector abundance in typical sink populations, all six human diseases were able to spread in 15–55% of cases after accidental introduction. The rate of spread was much more strongly influenced by vector longevity, immigration and feeding rates, than by transmission and virulence of the pathogen. Prevalence in humans remained lower than 5% for dengue, leishmaniasis and Japanese encephalitis, but substantially higher for diseases with longer duration of infection; malaria and the American and African trypanosomiasis. Vector-related parameters were again the key factors, although their influence was lower than on pathogen emergence. Our results emphasize the need for ecology and evolution to be thought in the context of metapopulations made of a mosaic of sink and source habitats, and to design vector control program not only targeting areas of high vector density, but working at a larger spatial scale.

An agent-based model for control strategies of Echinococcus granulosus

Cystic echinococcosis is a widespread zoonosis, caused by Echinococcus granulosus. The definitive hosts are carnivores and the intermediate hosts are grazing animals. Because humans are often accidentally infected with the cystic stage of the parasite, a control program is being developed for Western China. Western Sichuan Province in China is a highly endemic area. In this study, we built an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate and assess possible control strategies. These included dog dosing, control of livestock slaughter, health education, vaccination of intermediate hosts, vaccination of definitive hosts, slow-released praziquantel injections for dogs, removing unproductive old livestock, dog population reduction. These strategies were examined singly and in various combinations. The results show that vaccination based control strategies and also combined control strategies (dog dosing, slaughter control, removing old livestock, dog population reduction) can achieve a higher efficiency and be more feasible. Although monthly dog dosing achieved the highest efficiency, it required a high frequency and reliability, which were not feasible or sustainable. The model also indicated that transmission would recover soon after the chosen control strategy was stopped, indicating the need to move from a successful attack phase to a sustainable consolidation phase.

Estimating contact process saturation in sylvatic transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the United States

Although it has been known for nearly a century that strains of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent for Chagas' disease, are enzootic in the southern U.S., much remains unknown about the dynamics of its transmission in the sylvatic cycles that maintain it, including the relative importance of different transmission routes. Mathematical models can fill in gaps where field and lab data are difficult to collect, but they need as inputs the values of certain key demographic and epidemiological quantities which parametrize the models. In particular, they determine whether saturation occurs in the contact processes that communicate the infection between the two populations. Concentrating on raccoons, opossums, and woodrats as hosts in Texas and the southeastern U.S., and the vectors Triatoma sanguisuga and Triatoma gerstaeckeri, we use an exhaustive literature review to derive estimates for fundamental parameters, and use simple mathematical models to illustrate a method for estimating infection rates indirectly based on prevalence data. Results are used to draw conclusions about saturation and which population density drives each of the two contact-based infection processes (stercorarian/bloodborne and oral). Analysis suggests that the vector feeding process associated with stercorarian transmission to hosts and bloodborne transmission to vectors is limited by the population density of vectors when dealing with woodrats, but by that of hosts when dealing with raccoons and opossums, while the predation of hosts on vectors which drives oral transmission to hosts is limited by the population density of hosts. Confidence in these conclusions is limited by a severe paucity of data underlying associated parameter estimates, but the approaches developed here can also be applied to the study of other vector-borne infections.

The parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, transmitted by insect vectors, causes Chagas' disease, which affects millions of people throughout the Americas and over 100 other mammalian species. In the United States, infection in humans is believed rare, but prevalence is high in hosts like raccoons and opossums in the southeast and woodrats in Texas and northern Mexico. The principal U.S. vector species appear inefficient, however, so hosts may be primarily infected by congenital transmission and oral transmission caused by eating infected vectors. Mathematical models can evaluate the importance of each transmission route but require as inputs estimates for basic contact rates and demographic information. We estimate basic quantities via an exhaustive review of T. cruzi transmission in the southern and southeastern U.S., and use properties of mathematical models to estimate infection rates and the threshold (saturation) population-density ratios that govern whether each infection process depends on host or vector density. Results (based on extremely limited data) suggest that oral transmission is always driven by host density, while transmission to vectors depends upon host density in cycles involving raccoons and opossums, but upon vector density in cycles involving woodrats, which live in higher concentrations.

Internet resources for agent-based modelling

The use of agent-based models (ABMs) is steadily increasing in all the disciplines including environmental chemistry and toxicology. This growth is mainly driven by their ability to address problems that conventional modelling techniques cannot, such as the change of scale or the emergence of unanticipated phenomena resulting from interactions between their constitutive goal-directed agents. After a brief introduction on the basic principles of agent-based modelling and the presentation of selected case studies, the main software resources available on the Internet are presented. An attempt is made to estimate the complexity of these tools versus their potentialities and flexibility.