Clinical utility of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scoring systems for predicting postoperative atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery

The Association of New Onset Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation and Abnormal P-Terminal Force in Lead V1 After On-Pump Cardiac Surgery

Introduction: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery is associated with higher morbidity and mortality. This paper presents several studies that conclude the presence of an aberrant p-terminal force vector in lead V1 (PTFV1) has been identified as a significant predictor of atrial fibrillation in the non-surgical population. It is uncertain whether or not there is an association of PTFV1 and new-onset POAF in patients after cardiac surgery. Methods: In this secondary analysis, adult patients undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery for aortocoronary bypasses, valve surgery, combined bypass, and valve surgery were analyzed from 12/2018 to 08/2020. Patients who had a previous occurrence of atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, patients with pacemakers and/or Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators (ICDs), and those who did not have an electrocardiogram (ECG) performed within the 3 months before surgery were excluded. In addition, ECGs that were considered to be of low quality were also removed. Preoperative 12-lead ECGs were examined and the PTFV1 was measured. Secondarily, we examined the P-wave length in lead II, the area under the P-wave in lead II, PR interval, and QRS duration in lead V1 and II. The occurrence of POAF was extracted from the hospital record. Results: Out of a total of 252 patients, 62 patients (24.6%) developed new onset POAF during their hospital stay. POAF occurred primarily in older patients, with poor renal function, and exhibited larger left atria. Analysis of ORs (odds ratios) revealed that age, creatinine clearance, valve surgery, and left atrial volume index (LAVI) were associated with POAF. In the context of the multivariable analysis, it was demonstrated that only age presented a significant correlation with postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF). There was no observed relationship between any of the parameters based on ECG and the occurrence of POAF. Conclusion: No association was found between PTFV1 or other ECG-based measurements and new onset POAF in cardiac surgery patients. Age was the only independent predictor of POAF.

Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion During Cardiac Surgery to Prevent Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Atrial fibrillation accounts for 1/6 of all strokes, potentially leading to significant disability and death. The left atrial appendage (LAA) is the primary location for thrombus formation. Excluding the LAA has been hypothesized to decrease the risk of ischemic stroke. This study examines LAA occlusion (LAAO) with otherwise indicated cardiac surgery and its effect on surgical outcomes. We followed the standards recommended by the Cochrane Collaborative Group and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist to prepare this systematic review and meta-analysis. Studies were retrieved through an online bibliographic search, studies were screened, and data were extracted. We compared the 2 study arms (LAAO and cardiac surgery without LAAO). A total of 10 studies have been included in this study, and 6 randomized controlled trials were included in the meta-analysis, with data pooled from over 10,000 patients. LAAO is associated with no significant difference in the overall mortality (p = 0.98) and systemic embolism (p = 0.31). Strokes, particularly, ischemic strokes, have significantly lower risk in patients who underwent LAAO (p <0.0001 and p = 0.0007), respectively. In conclusion, LAAO can be done safely as a concomitant surgery with other cardiac surgeries, with a minimal incremental cost when performed concurrently. LAAO is associated with a lower risk of all stroke and ischemic strokes. Further studies are needed to shape guidance on the continuation versus discontinuation of anticoagulation after LAAO, especially in patient populations with a higher risk of bleeding.

Stroke Prevention With Prophylactic Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion in Cardiac Surgery Patients Without Atrial Fibrillation: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized and Propensity-Score Studies

BACKGROUND

The role of left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) in patients without previous atrial fibrillation (AF) is not established. This meta-analysis was conducted on patients with normal sinus rhythm who underwent cardiac surgery, with and without concomitant LAAO, to evaluate its effect on the incidence of cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs).

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted from inception until December 2023 for randomized and propensity-score studies comparing CVA in patients without AF undergoing cardiac surgery with or without LAAO.

RESULTS

Six studies met our inclusion criteria with a total of 4130 patients: 2146 in the LAAO group and 1984 in the no-LAAO group. The risk ratio of postoperative AF was 1.05 (95% CI, 0.86-1.28); P=0.628. The CVA rates at 5 years were 6.8±1.0% in the no-LAAO group and 4.3±0.8% in the LAAO group (log-rank P=0.021). The Cox regression analysis for CVA in patients undergoing LAAO reported a hazard ratio of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.45-0.94); P=0.022. Landmark analysis at 4 years highlighted a significant difference in overall survival between no-LAAO and LAAO groups, 86±12.2% versus 89.6±11.0%; P=0.041.

CONCLUSIONS

In this meta-analysis of patients without previous AF undergoing cardiac surgery, LAAO was associated with a decreased risk of CVA, no difference in the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation, and a significant overall survival benefit at a 4-year landmark analysis. Although these findings support LAAO, the randomized LeAAPS trial (Left Atrial Appendage Exclusion for Prophylactic Stroke Reduction Trial), LAA-CLOSURE trial (A Randomized Prospective Multicenter Trial for Stroke Prevention by Prophylactic Surgical Closure of the Left Atrial Appendage in Patients Undergoing Bioprosthetic Aortic Valve Surgery), and LAACS-2 trial (Left Atrial Appendage Closure by Surgery-2) will help define the effectiveness of LAAO in patients undergoing cardiac surgery who have risk factors for AF and CVA.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/; Unique identifier: CRD42024496366.

Prophylactic left atrial appendage ligation during coronary artery bypass grafting: A propensity score-matched analysis

OBJECTIVE

The study objective was to evaluate short-term outcomes and statewide practice patterns of prophylactic left atrial appendage ligation in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting without preoperative atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

Adult patients who underwent on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (2017-2023) within a regional collaborative were identified. Patients with a history of atrial fibrillation, previous cardiac surgery, or nondevice-based left atrial appendage ligation were excluded. Patients were stratified by left atrial appendage ligation status and were propensity score matched. Univariable analysis was used to compare short-term clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 16,547 patients examined, 442 underwent prophylactic left atrial appendage ligation. The propensity score-matched cohort (439 in the prophylactic left atrial appendage ligation group, 439 in the no prophylactic left atrial appendage ligation group) was compared and had no significant differences in preoperative Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 (doubled), Diabetes mellitus, prior Stroke, Transient ischemic attack or Thromboembolism (doubled), Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74, Sex category (female)(CHA2DS2-VASc) scores or operative variables. The prophylactic left atrial appendage ligation group had longer crossclamp time (82 vs 76 minutes, P = .001), intensive care unit hours (72 vs 66, P = .001), and length of stay (6.0 vs 6.0 days, P = .010); increased postoperative atrial fibrillation (35% vs 24%, P < .001); and more discharges on anticoagulation (17% vs 8.2%, P < .001). There were no significant differences in postoperative stroke (1.1% vs 2.1%, P = .423), readmission (13% vs 9.6%, P = .118), operative mortality (2.5% vs 1.6%, P = .480), or readmission for thrombotic or bleeding complications (0.7% vs 1.1%, P = .724). Hospitalization costs were significantly higher for the prophylactic left atrial appendage ligation group ($43,478 vs $40,645, P < .001). The rate of prophylactic left atrial appendage ligation during coronary artery bypass grafting increased from 1.61% (2017) to 5.65% (2023) (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite higher rates of postoperative atrial fibrillation, discharge on anticoagulation, and hospitalization costs in patients undergoing prophylactic left atrial appendage ligation during coronary artery bypass grafting, there was no difference in short-term clinical end points including stroke and operative mortality.

Atrial Fibrillation After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and Its Relationship with Hospital Complications in São Paulo State

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation is the main complication in the postoperative period of cardiovascular surgery. Its genesis is multifactorial, so its rapid identification to mitigate the associated risks is essential.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the incidence of atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and its relationship with other complications in our setting.

METHODS

This is a multicenter, observational study involving patients undergoing isolated CABG between 2017 and 2019 with data from the Registro Paulista de Cirurgia Cardiovascular (or REPLICCAR II). Variables were prospectively collected in REDCap following the definitions given by version 2.73 of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database. Data were collected with prior authorization from the local ethics committee and analyses performed in R software.

RESULTS

A total of 3,803 patients were included, of these 605 had postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF). In order to adjust the groups, propensity score matching was used. Such analyses resulted in 605 patients in each group (without POAF vs. with POAF). Among patients with POAF, the mean age was 67.56 years, with a prevalence of males (73.6%, 445 patients). Patients belonging to the group with POAF had a mortality rate of 9.26% (P=0.007), longer ventilation time (P<0.001), pneumonia (P<0.001), and sepsis (P<0.001). In multiple analysis, acute renal dysfunction (P=0.032) and longer intensive care unit stay (P<0,001) were associated with the presence of POAF.

CONCLUSION

POAF in CABG is associated with longer intensive care unit and hospital stay, as well as renal dysfunction, pneumonia, and in-hospital mortality.

Scores predicting atrial fibrillation after mitral valve surgery: Do we need a more specific score?

Background

Atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery (POAF) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Several scores were used to predict POAF, with variable results. Thus, this study assessed the performance of several scoring systems to predict POAF after mitral valve surgery. Additionally, we identified the risk factors for POAF in those patients.

Methods

This retrospective cohort included 1381 recruited from 2009 to 2021. The patients underwent mitral valve surgery, and POAF occurred in 233 (16.87%) patients. The performance of CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, POAF, EuroSCORE II, and HATCH scores was evaluated.

Results

The median age was higher in patients who developed POAF (60 vs. 54 years; p < .001). CHA2-DS2-VASc, POAF, EuroSCORE II, and HATCH scores significantly predicted POAF, with areas under the curve of the receiver operator curve (AUCROC) of 0.56, 0.61, 0.58, and 0.54, respectively. We identified age > 58 years, body mass index > 28 kg/m2, creatinine clearance < 90 mL/min, reoperative surgery, and preoperative inotropic and intra-aortic balloon pump use as predictors of POAF. We constructed a score from these variables (PSCC-AF). A score > 2 significantly predicted POAF (p < .001). The AUCROC of this score was 0.67, which was significantly higher than the AUCROC of the POAF score (p = .009).

Conclusion

POAF after mitral valve surgery can be predicted based on preoperative patient characteristics. The new PSCC-AF score significantly predicted POAF after mitral valve surgery and can serve as a bedside diagnostic tool for POAF risk screening. Further studies are needed to validate the PSCC-AF-mitral score externally.

Long noncoding RNA and messenger RNA profiling in epicardial adipose tissue of patients with new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) constitutes a significant complication following coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG), potentially linked to epicardial adipose tissue (EAT). This investigation seeks to elucidate the association between POAF and EAT at the genetic level.

METHODS

EAT and clinical data from patients undergoing CABG were systematically acquired, adhering to established inclusion and exclusion criteria. Patients were categorized into POAF and Non-POAF groups based on the presence or absence of POAF. High-throughput sequencing data of EAT were subjected to differential expression analysis and gene function assessment. A random selection of long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) underwent quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) for validation of the high-throughput sequencing findings. Coexpression analysis was employed to elucidate the interactions between lncRNAs and messenger RNAs (mRNAs).

RESULTS

RNA sequencing yielded a total of 69,685 transcripts (37,740 coding and 31,945 noncoding sequences), representing 16,920 genes. Within this dataset, 38 mRNAs and 12 lncRNAs exhibited differential expression between the POAF and Non-POAF groups (P < 0.05, fold change > 1.5). The qRT-PCR results for lncRNAs corroborated the sequencing findings (P < 0.01). Functional enrichment analysis of genes and the coexpression network indicated that these differentially expressed RNAs were primarily implicated in processes such as cell growth, differentiation, signal transduction, as well as influencing tissue fibrosis and ion transmembrane transport.

CONCLUSIONS

This study unveils a potential association between myocardial fibrosis and ion channels co-regulated by mRNAs and lncRNAs, closely linked to the emergence of new-onset POAF, after accounting for clinical risk factors. This discovery holds promise for further advances in clinical and fundamental research.

Machine Learning for Predicting Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: A Scoping Review of Current Literature

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) occurs in up to 20% to 55% of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. Machine learning (ML) has been increasingly employed in monitoring, screening, and identifying different cardiovascular clinical conditions. It was proposed that ML may be a useful tool for predicting POAF after cardiac surgery. An electronic database search was conducted on Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, Google Scholar, and ClinicalTrials.gov to identify primary studies that investigated the role of ML in predicting POAF after cardiac surgery. A total of 5,955 citations were subjected to title and abstract screening, and ultimately 5 studies were included. The reported incidence of POAF ranged from 21.5% to 37.1%. The studied ML models included: deep learning, decision trees, logistic regression, support vector machines, gradient boosting decision tree, gradient-boosted machine, K-nearest neighbors, neural network, and random forest models. The sensitivity of the reported ML models ranged from 0.22 to 0.91, the specificity from 0.64 to 0.84, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.67 to 0.94. Age, gender, left atrial diameter, glomerular filtration rate, and duration of mechanical ventilation were significant clinical risk factors for POAF. Limited evidence suggest that machine learning models may play a role in predicting atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery because of their ability to detect different patterns of correlations and the incorporation of several demographic and clinical variables. However, the heterogeneity of the included studies and the lack of external validation are the most important limitations against the routine incorporation of these models in routine practice. Artificial intelligence, cardiac surgery, decision tree, deep learning, gradient-boosted machine, gradient boosting decision tree, k-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, machine learning, neural network, postoperative atrial fibrillation, postoperative complications, random forest, risk scores, scoping review, support vector machine.

Risk Scores for Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery and is associated with poor clinical outcomes. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the performance of risk scores to predict POAF in cardiac surgery patients. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL for studies that developed/evaluated a POAF risk prediction model. Pairs of reviewers independently screened studies and extracted data. We pooled area under the receiver operating curves (AUCs), sensitivity and specificity, and adjusted odds ratios from multivariable regression analyses using the generic inverse variance method and random effects models. Forty-three studies (n = 63,847) were included in the quantitative synthesis. Most scores were originally developed for other purposes but evaluated for predicting POAF. Pooled AUC revealed moderate POAF discrimination for the EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54 to 0.65), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (AUC 0.60, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.63), EuroSCORE (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.68), CHADS2 (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), POAF Score (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.68), HATCH (AUC 0.67, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), CHA2DS2-VASc (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.75) and SYNTAX scores (AUC 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.78). Pooled analyses at specific cutoffs of the CHA2DS2-VASc, CHADS2, HATCH, and POAF scores demonstrated moderate-to-high sensitivity (range 46% to 87%) and low-to-moderate specificity (range 31% to 70%) for POAF prediction. In conclusion, existing clinical risk scores offer at best moderate prediction for POAF after cardiac surgery. Better models are needed to guide POAF risk stratification in cardiac surgery patients.

Baseline Intraoperative Left Ventricular Diastolic Function Is Associated with Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation after Cardiac Surgery

BACKGROUND

Detailed understanding of the association between intraoperative left atrial and left ventricular diastolic function and postoperative atrial fibrillation is lacking. In this post hoc analysis of the Posterior Left Pericardiotomy for the Prevention of Atrial Fibrillation after Cardiac Surgery (PALACS) trial, we aimed to evaluate the association of intraoperative left atrial and left ventricular diastolic function as assessed by transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) with postoperative atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

PALACS patients with available intraoperative TEE data (n = 402 of 420; 95.7%) were included in this cohort study. We tested the hypotheses that preoperative left atrial size and function, left ventricular diastolic function, and their intraoperative changes were associated with postoperative atrial fibrillation. Normal left ventricular diastolic function was graded as 0 and with lateral e' velocity 10 cm/s or greater. Diastolic dysfunction was defined as lateral e' less than 10 cm/s using E/e' cutoffs of grade 1, E/e' 8 or less; grade, 2 E/e' 9 to 12; and grade 3, E/e' 13 or greater, along with two criteria based on mitral inflow and pulmonary wave flow velocities.

RESULTS

A total of 230 of 402 patients (57.2%) had intraoperative diastolic dysfunction. Posterior pericardiotomy intervention was not significantly different between the two groups. A total of 99 of 402 patients (24.6%) developed postoperative atrial fibrillation. Patients who developed postoperative atrial fibrillation more frequently had abnormal left ventricular diastolic function compared to patients who did not develop postoperative atrial fibrillation (75.0% [n = 161 of 303] vs. 57.5% [n = 69 of 99]; P = 0.004). Of the left atrial size and function parameters, only delta left atrial area, defined as presternotomy minus post-chest closure measurement, was significantly different in the no postoperative atrial fibrillation versus postoperative atrial fibrillation groups on univariate analysis (-2.1 cm2 [interquartile range, -5.1 to 1.0] vs. 0.1 [interquartile range, -4.0 to 4.8]; P = 0.028). At multivariable analysis, baseline abnormal left ventricular diastolic function (odds ratio, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.15 to 3.63; P = 0.016) and pericardiotomy intervention (odds ratio, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.78, P = 0.004) were the only covariates independently associated with postoperative atrial fibrillation.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline preoperative left ventricular diastolic dysfunction on TEE, not left atrial size or function, is independently associated with postoperative atrial fibrillation. Further studies are needed to test if interventions aimed at optimizing intraoperative left ventricular diastolic function during cardiac surgery may reduce the risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation.

EDITOR’S PERSPECTIVE

Characteristics of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation and the Effect of Posterior Pericardiotomy

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a frequent complication of cardiac surgery. However, only a few detailed descriptions of the arrhythmia have been reported. We aim to describe the characteristics, outcomes, and variables associated with POAF and to evaluate how posterior pericardiotomy (PP) affects POAF characteristics.

METHODS

In this post hoc analysis of the Posterior left pericardiotomy for the prevention of AtriaL fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery (PALACS) trial, we describe POAF characteristics based on continuous in-hospital telemetry data.

RESULTS

Of 420 patients, 103 (24.5%) developed POAF. Median time to onset was 50.3 hours; 70.9% of events occurred within 3 days. Hemodynamic instability and rapid ventricular response occurred in 8.7% and 51.5% of cases, respectively. Most POAF patients received antiarrhythmics (97.1%), 22.3% electrical cardioversion, and 40.8% systemic anticoagulation. Median POAF duration was 24.0 hours; 70.9% of cases resolved within 36 hours. Median POAF burden was 15.9%. All patients were in sinus rhythm at follow-up. POAF was associated with longer hospitalization (7 vs 6 days; P < .001), but not increased mortality or morbidity. PP reduced POAF incidence (17.7% vs 31.3%; P = .001), especially after postoperative day 2 (time to POAF onset 41.9 vs 57.1 hours; P = .01). Age was associated with POAF. Female sex, coronary artery bypass grafting, beta blockers, and PP were inversely associated.

CONCLUSIONS

POAF remains frequent after cardiac surgery. Hemodynamic instability is rare, although rapid ventricular response and need for electrical cardioversion are frequent. POAF burden is significant, and the arrhythmias resolve within 30 days. PP reduces POAF especially after postoperative day 2.

Atrial Fibrillation and Perioperative Inflammation (FIBRILLAMMED Study): A Retrospective Analysis of the Predictive Role of Preoperative Albumin-Adjusted Platelet-Leukocytic Indices in OPCABG

Objective

New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF), an important postoperative complication, has pertinent inflammatory links. Motivated by the encouraging literature on the prognostic role of hypoalbuminemia, leukocytic indices [LIs: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR)], systemic inflammation response index (SIRI=NLR×monocyte) and platelet-leukocytic indices [PLIs: platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR)], systemic immune inflammation index (SII=NLR×platelet), aggregate index of systemic inflammation (AISI=NLR×platelet×monocyte), we sought to investigate the NOAF-predictive value of preoperative albumin-adjusted indices (aa-LIs and aa-PLIs) in an off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCABG) setting.

Methods

Of 899 patients, 151 patients (16.79%) developed the primary outcome i.e. NOAF that was analyzed further retrospectively for its predictors instead of the highlighted text perioperative data of 899 patients undergoing elective OPCABG, were retrospectively analyzed. The study participants were categorized into non-NOAF and NOAF groups (defined as new-onset atrial arrhythmia with irregular RR interval with indistinct P wave in the first week postoperatively).

Results

One hundred and fifty-one patients (16.79%) developed NOAF. On univariate analysis: age, smoker status, The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II, systemic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, prior congestive heart failure (CHF), and a higher preoperative NLR, PLR, SII, and albumin were significant predictors of NOAF. While age, CHF, and EuroSCORE II retained predictive significance in multivariate analysis, LI-PLIs and albumin did not emerge as independent NOAF predictors. Notably, aa-NLR, aa-PLR, and aa-SII independently predicted NOAF on the computation of model-estimates in the regression analysis (Odds ratio; 95% confidence interval: 31.05;15.75-70.61, 1.04;1.02-1.05, 1.12;1.10-1.14, respectively, P < 0.001). aa-NLR ≥1.32, aa-PLR ≥52.64, and aa-SII ≥344.38 predicted NOAF with the respective AUC;sensitivity;specificity of 0.66;63.6%;73.3%, 0.63;66.2%;59.0%, and 0.65;58.3%;78.2%. Preoperative aa-NLR, aa-PLR and aa-SII also positively correlated with CHA2DS2-VASc score (R=0.40, 0.45 and 0.42; P < 0.001).

Conclusion

The independent NOAF predictive value of aa-NLR, aa-PLR, and aa-SII reiterates the inflammatory relationship of the arrhythmic complication following OPCABG.

Prediction of post-operative atrial fibrillation in patients after cardiac surgery using heart rate variability

PURPOSE

Post-operative atrial fibrillation (PoAF) occurs in ~ 30% of patients after cardiac surgery. The etiology of PoAF is complex, but a disbalance in autonomic systems plays an important role. The goal of this study was to assess whether pre-operative heart rate variability analysis can predict the risk of PoAF.

METHODS

Patients without a history of AF with an indication for cardiac surgery were included. Two-hour ECG recordings one day before surgery was used for the HRV analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression, including all HRV parameters, their combination, and clinical variables, were calculated to find the best predictive model for post-operative AF.

RESULTS

One hundred and thirty-seven patients (33 women) were enrolled in the study. PoAF occurred in 48 patients (35%, AF group); the remaining 89 patients were in the NoAF group. AF patients were significantly older (69.1 ± 8.6 vs. 63.4 ± 10.5 yrs., p = 0.002), and had higher CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (3 ± 1.4 vs. 2.5 ± 1.3, p = 0.01). In the multivariate regression model, parameters independently associated with higher risk of AF were pNN50, TINN, absolute power VLF, LF and HF, total power, SD2, and the Porta index. A combination of clinical variables with HRV parameters in the ROC analysis achieved an AUC of 0.86, a sensitivity of 0.95, and a specificity of 0.57 and was more effective in PoAF prediction than a combination of clinical variables alone.

CONCLUSION

A combination of several HRV parameters is helpful in predicting the risk of PoAF. Attenuation of heart rate variability increases the risk for PoAF.

Postoperative pericardial effusion, pericardiotomy, and atrial fibrillation: An explanatory analysis of the PALACS trial

BACKGROUND

In the Posterior left pericardiotomy for the prevention of atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery (PALACS) trial, posterior pericardiotomy was associated with a significant reduction in postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery. We aimed to investigate the mechanisms underlying this effect.

METHODS

We included PALACS patients with available echocardiographic data (n = 387/420, 92%). We tested the hypotheses that the reduction in POAF with the intervention was associated with 1) a reduction in postoperative pericardial effusion and/or 2) an effect on left atrial size and function. Spline and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used.

RESULTS

Most patients (n = 307, 79%) had postoperative pericardial effusions (anterior 68%, postero-lateral 51.9%). The incidence of postero-lateral effusion was significantly lower in patients undergoing pericardiotomy (37% vs 67%; P < .001). The median size of anterior effusion was comparable between patients with and without POAF (5.0 [IQR 3.0-7.0] vs 5.0 [IQR 3.0-7.5] mm; P = .42), but there was a nonsignificant trend towards larger postero-lateral effusion in the POAF group (5.0 [IQR 3.0-9.0] vs 4.0 [IQR 3.0-6.4] mm; P = .06). There was a non-linear association between postero-lateral effusion and POAF at a cut-off at 10 mm (OR 2.70; 95% CI 1.13, 6.47; P = .03) that was confirmed in multivariable analysis (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.17, 10.58; P = 0.02). Left atrial dimension and function did not change significantly after posterior pericardiotomy.

CONCLUSIONS

Reduction in postero-lateral pericardial effusion is a plausible mechanism for the effect of posterior pericardiotomy in reducing POAF. Measures to reduce postoperative pericardial effusion are a promising approach to prevent POAF.

Atrial Fibrillation Occurring During Acute Hospitalization: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Acute atrial fibrillation is defined as atrial fibrillation detected in the setting of acute care or acute illness; atrial fibrillation may be detected or managed for the first time during acute hospitalization for another condition. Atrial fibrillation after cardiothoracic surgery is a distinct type of acute atrial fibrillation. Acute atrial fibrillation is associated with high risk of long-term atrial fibrillation recurrence, warranting clinical attention during acute hospitalization and over long-term follow-up. A framework of substrates and triggers can be useful for evaluating and managing acute atrial fibrillation. Acute management requires a multipronged approach with interdisciplinary care collaboration, tailoring treatments to the patient's underlying substrate and acute condition. Key components of acute management include identification and treatment of triggers, selection and implementation of rate/rhythm control, and management of anticoagulation. Acute rate or rhythm control strategy should be individualized with consideration of the patient's capacity to tolerate rapid rates or atrioventricular dyssynchrony, and the patient's ability to tolerate the risk of the therapeutic strategy. Given the high risks of atrial fibrillation recurrence in patients with acute atrial fibrillation, clinical follow-up and heart rhythm monitoring are warranted. Long-term management is guided by patient substrate, with implications for intensity of heart rhythm monitoring, anticoagulation, and considerations for rhythm management strategies. Overall management of acute atrial fibrillation addresses substrates and triggers. The 3As of acute management are acute triggers, atrial fibrillation rate/rhythm management, and anticoagulation. The 2As and 2Ms of long-term management include monitoring of heart rhythm and modification of lifestyle and risk factors, in addition to considerations for atrial fibrillation rate/rhythm management and anticoagulation. Several gaps in knowledge related to acute atrial fibrillation exist and warrant future research.

Predicting atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a scoping review of associated factors and systematic review of existing prediction models

INTRODUCTION

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is common after cardiac surgery and associated with increased hospital length of stay, patient morbidity and mortality. We aimed to identify factors associated with POAF and evaluate the accuracy of available POAF prediction models.

METHODS

We screened articles from Ovid MEDLINE® and PubMed Central® (PMC) and included studies that evaluated risk factors associated with POAF or studies that designed or validated POAF prediction models. We only included studies in cardiac surgical patients with sample size n ⩾ 50 and a POAF outcome group ⩾20. We summarised factors that were associated with POAF and assessed prediction model performance by reviewing reported calibration and discriminative ability.

RESULTS

We reviewed 232 studies. Of these, 142 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Age was frequently found to be associated with POAF, while most other variables showed contradictory findings, or were assessed in few studies. Overall, 15 studies specifically developed and/or validated 12 prediction models. Of these, all showed poor discrimination or absent calibration in predicting POAF in externally validated cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Except for age, reporting of factors associated with POAF is inconsistent and often contradictory. Prediction models have low discrimination, missing calibration statistics, are at risk of bias and show limited clinical applicability. This suggests the need for studies that prospectively collect AF relevant data in large cohorts and then proceed to validate findings in external data sets.

Association of Mitral Regurgitation with Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Critically Ill Noncardiac Surgery Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Purpose

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in critically ill patients and can have serious consequences. Postoperative AF (POAF) in critically ill patients following noncardiac surgery has been understudied, contrary to cardiac procedures. Mitral regurgitation (MR) is associated with left ventricular dysfunction, which might contribute to the occurrence of AF in postoperative critically ill patients. This study aimed to investigate the association between MR and POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients and establish a new nomogram for the prediction of POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients.

Patients and Methods

A prospective cohort of 2474 patients who underwent thoracic and general surgery was enrolled in this study. Data on preoperative transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), electrocardiogram (ECG), and several commonly utilized scoring systems (CHA2DS2-VASc, HATCH, COM-AF, HART, and C2HEST) and baseline clinical data were collected. Independent predictors were selected by univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram was constructed for POAF within 7 days after postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The ability of the MR-nomogram and other scoring systems to predict POAF was compared by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA). Additional contributions were evaluated by integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis.

Results

A total of 213 (8.6%) patients developed POAF within 7 days after ICU admission. Compared to CHA2DS2-VASc, HATCH, COM-AF, HART, and C2HEST scoring systems, MR-nomogram showed better predictive ability for POAF with an area under the ROC curve of 0.824 (95% confidence interval: 0.805-0.842, p < 0.001). The improvement of the MR-nomogram in predictive value was supported by NRI and IDI analysis. The net benefit of the MR nomogram was maximal in DCA.

Conclusion

MR is an independent risk factor of POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients. The nomogram predicted POAF better than other scoring systems.

Prophylactic Left Atrial Appendage Exclusion in Cardiac Surgery Patients With Elevated CHA2DS2-VASc Score: Results of the Randomized ATLAS Trial

OBJECTIVE

Patients with elevated CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores are at high risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) and thromboembolic events (TE) after cardiac surgery. Left atrial appendage exclusion (LAAE) is a permanent, continuous approach to stroke prevention in AF, overcoming limitations of oral anticoagulation (OAC). We report ATLAS trial results focused on LAAE technical success and perioperative safety and TE rates with and without LAAE in cardiac surgery patients who developed postoperative AF (POAF).

METHODS

ATLAS (NCT02701062) was a prospective, multicenter, feasibility trial. Patients age ≥18 years, undergoing structural heart procedure, with no preoperative AF, CHA₂DS₂-VASc ≥2, and HAS-BLED ≥2 were randomized 2:1 to LAAE or no LAAE. Patients who developed POAF and/or received LAAE were followed for 1 year. LAAE was evaluated with intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography.

RESULTS

A total of 562 patients were randomized to LAAE (n = 376) or no LAAE (n = 186). Mean CHA₂DS₂-VASc (3.4 vs 3.4) and HAS-BLED (2.8 vs 2.9) scores were similar for LAAE and no LAAE groups. LAAE success (no flow nor residual stump >10 mm) was 99%. One LAAE-related serious adverse event (0.27%) occurred and was resolved without sequelae. There were 44.3% of patients who developed POAF. Through 1 year, 3.4% of LAAE patients and 5.6% of no LAAE patients had TE. OAC was used by 32.5% of POAF patients. Bleeding was higher with OAC than without (16.1% vs 5.4%, P = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

ATLAS demonstrated a high rate of successful LAAE with low LAAE-related serious adverse events in cardiac surgery patients. Study results should be considered in future trial design to further evaluate prophylactic LAAE for stroke prevention in cardiac surgery patients with elevated stroke risk.

Post-cardiotomy pericardial effusion and postoperative atrial fibrillation risk

Postoperative atrial fibrillation is a poor prognostic factor associated with increased mortality rates. Patients experiencing significant pericardial effusion develop postoperative atrial fibrillation; however, little is explored about the association between postoperative atrial fibrillation and post-cardiotomy pericardial effusion. This retrospective, single-center study included adult patients who underwent cardiovascular surgery via median sternotomy from January 2016 to December 2019. Patients who underwent routine postoperative computed tomography at 7 ± 3 days after surgery (n = 294) were included. Pericardial effusion was measured at the thickest point. Patients were classified into those with (n = 127) and without (n = 167) postoperative atrial fibrillation. The association of pericardial effusion with other factors was evaluated. A possible confounder-adjusted logistic regression analysis after multiple imputation was performed to obtain odds ratios for postoperative atrial fibrillation using previously published risk factors. Age, intraoperative bleeding volume, and pericardial effusion size were all significantly higher in the group with postoperative atrial fibrillation. Multivariate logistic regression after multiple imputation revealed that age, intraoperative bleeding volume, and postoperative pericardial effusion were significantly associated with postoperative atrial fibrillation. Our findings suggest that post-cardiotomy pericardial effusion is associated with postoperative atrial fibrillation. However, the causality remains unknown, making further studies mandatory.

Incidence, predictors, and outcome for post-operative atrial fibrillation in Indian patients undergoing off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting-a prospective observational study

Purpose

Indian patients who undergo surgical revascularization are relatively younger than their Western counterparts and are predominantly revascularized using off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB) technique. They may therefore be at a reduced risk of developing post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF). The aim of this study was to assess the incidence of POAF, measure its impact on outcomes, and identify the predictors for POAF in the Indian patients undergoing OPCAB. Besides, the ability of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) scores in predicting POAF was also assessed.

Methods

In this prospective observational study, all patients undergoing isolated OPCAB in a single institution over a 12-month period were included. Patients undergoing re-operative surgery, emergency procedure, concomitant surgery, or those with history of previously diagnosed or treated atrial fibrillation were excluded. Logistic regression was performed to identify the predictors of POAF. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the ability of EuroSCORE and STS scores to assess risk of developing POAF.

Results

We recruited 1108 patients in the study of which 88 (7.94%) patients developed POAF. Age (OR = 1.082, p < 0.001, 95%CI: 1.050-1.114), unstable angina (OR = 16.32, p = 0.036, 95%CI: 1.2-221.4), presence of diabetes mellitus (OR 1.781, p = 0.025, 95%CI: 1.074-2.955), left atrial size (OR 2.506, p = 0.001, 95%CI: 1.478-4.251), and presence of chronic renal failure (OR 8.7, p = 0.001, 95%CI: 2.4-31.53) were significant predictors of POAF. Both the EuroSCORE (p = 0.035) and the STS score (p = 0.001) were significantly higher in patients developing POAF. The area under the ROC curve for the EuroSCORE II was 0.62 and for the STS score was 0.64 suggesting satisfactory and similar discriminatory power of both the scores to predict POAF in these patients. POAF was associated with significantly increased adverse outcomes like stroke and prolonged hospital stay.

Conclusions

In our study, the incidence of POAF was much lower (7.94%) than that reported previously. POAF significantly increased adverse outcomes and length of hospital stay. Both EuroSCORE II and STS scores had similar discriminating power in predicting POAF.

Perioperative Cardiac Troponin T and Risk of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery. We investigated whether perioperative cardiac troponin T (cTnT) is associated with the risk of AF after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

METHODS

Two thousand four hundred twenty-one patients with isolated CABG were studied. High sensitivity cTnT (hs-cTnT) was assessed before and then at 80 hour and 24 hour after the operation. Logistic regression models were applied to investigate the association of perioperative hs-cTnT with postoperative AF. The ROC curve analysis was applied to determine the optimal cutoff values.

RESULTS

Postoperative AF was occurred in 356 (14.7%) patients. Age (adjusted odds ratio [ORs] 1.087-1.090), male gender (OR 1.390), left atrium size (ORs 1.055-1.111), on-pump coronary bypass (OR 1.561), and application of intra-aortic balloon pump (ORs 2.890-2.966) were independently associated with AF. Preoperative hs-cTnT was associated with AF in patients with off-pump coronary bypass (ORs 1.997-2.375). However, the area under the curve for preoperative hs-cTnT was 0.625 in this group. On-pump coronary bypass had major influence on postoperative hs-cTnT levels regardless of the occurrence of AF.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative hs-cTnT level is associated with the risk of AF after isolated CABG in patients undergoing off-pump coronary bypass, but the accuracy of this biomarker is yet inadequate. Postoperative levels of hs-cTnT have no predictive value considering large influence by the surgical technique and the cardiac surgery itself. Therefore, perioperative hs-cTnT is not a clinically useful biomarker for predicting AF following CABG.

Nurse Staffing Practices and Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation Among Cardiac Surgery Patients: A Multisite Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a frequent complication of cardiac surgery that is associated with increased morbidity, mortality, and costs. Recent studies suggest that nurse staffing practices are associated with adverse postoperative events, but whether these practices are also related to POAF occurrence is unknown.

METHODS

To fill this knowledge gap, a cohort of 6401 cardiac surgery patients admitted to 2 Canadian university health centres (UHC A and UHC B) between 2014 and 2018 was studied. Patients' cumulative exposure to 4 staffing practices (registered nurse [RN] understaffing, education, experience, and non-RN skill mix) was measured every shift over the first 6 postoperative days, during which 96% of POAF cases occur. The associations of these exposures with in-hospital POAF occurrence were estimated using site-specific multivariable logistic regression models and a mixed-effect model combining data from both sites.

RESULTS

Overall, 563 (27.2%) and 1336 (30.8%) cases of POAF occurred at UHC A and UHC B, respectively. In site-specific models, every 5% increase in the cumulative proportion of understaffed shifts over the first 6 postoperative days was associated with a 3.5% increase in the odds of POAF (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for UHC A: 1.035; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.000-1.070, P = 0.0472; aOR for UHC B: 1.035; 95% CI: 1.013-1.057, P = 0.0019). In the mixed-effect model combining data from both sites, RN understaffing remained significant and was associated with a 3.1% increase in the odds of POAF (aOR: 1.031; 95% CI: 1.014-1.048, P = 0.0003). No other staffing practices were significantly associated with POAF occurrence.

CONCLUSION

Higher RN understaffing postoperatively is associated with increased POAF occurrence among cardiac surgery patients.

Prediction of Postcoronary Artery Bypass Grafting Atrial Fibrillation: POAFRiskScore Tool

BACKGROUND

 Atrial fibrillation (AF), a condition that might occur after a heart bypass procedure, has caused differing estimates of its occurrence and risk. The current study analyses the possible risk factors of post-coronary artery bypass grafting (post-CABG) AF (postoperative AF [POAF]) and presents a software for preoperative POAF risk prediction.

METHODS

 This retrospective research was performed on 1,667 patients who underwent CABG surgery using the hospital database. The associations between the variables of the patients and AF risk factors after CABG were examined using multivariable logistic regression (LR) after preprocessing the relevant data. The tool was designed to predict POAF risk using Shiny, an R package, to develop a web-based software.

RESULTS

 The overall proportion of post-CABG AF was 12.2%. According to the results of univariate tests, in terms of age (p < 0.001), blood urea nitrogen (p = 0.005), platelet (p < 0.001), triglyceride (p = 0.0026), presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; p = 0.01), and presence of preoperative carotid artery stenosis (PCAS; p < 0.001), there were statistically significant differences between the POAF and non-POAF groups. Multivariable LR analysis disclosed the independent risk factors associated with POAF: PCAS (odds ratio [OR] = 2.360; p = 0.028), COPD (OR = 2.243; p = 0.015), body mass index (OR = 1.090; p = 0.006), age (OR = 1.054, p < 0.001), and platelet (OR = 0.994, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

 The experimental findings from the current research demonstrate that the suggested tool (POAFRiskScore v.1.0) can help clinicians predict POAF risk development in the preoperative period after validated on large sample(s) that can represent the related population(s). Simultaneously, since the updated versions of the proposed tool will be released periodically based on the increases in data dimensions with continuously added new samples and related factors, more robust predictions may be obtained in the subsequent stages of the current study in statistical and clinical terms.

Posterior left pericardiotomy for the prevention of atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: an adaptive, single-centre, single-blind, randomised, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation is the most common complication after cardiac surgery and is associated with extended in-hospital stay and increased adverse outcomes, including death and stroke. Pericardial effusion is common after cardiac surgery and can trigger atrial fibrillation. We tested the hypothesis that posterior left pericardiotomy, a surgical manoeuvre that drains the pericardial space into the left pleural cavity, might reduce the incidence of atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery.

METHODS

In this adaptive, randomised, controlled trial, we recruited adult patients (aged ≥18 years) undergoing elective interventions on the coronary arteries, aortic valve, or ascending aorta, or a combination of these, performed by members of the Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery from Weill Cornell Medicine at the New York Presbyterian Hospital in New York, NY, USA. Patients were eligible if they had no history of atrial fibrillation or other arrhythmias or contraindications to the experimental intervention. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1), stratified by CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and using a mixed-block randomisation approach (block sizes of 4, 6, and 8), to posterior left pericardiotomy or no intervention. Patients and assessors were blinded to treatment assignment. Patients were followed up until 30 days after hospital discharge. The primary outcome was the incidence of atrial fibrillation during postoperative in-hospital stay, which was assessed in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. Safety was assessed in the as-treated population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02875405, and is now complete.

FINDINGS

Between Sept 18, 2017, and Aug 2, 2021, 3601 patients were screened and 420 were included and randomly assigned to the posterior left pericardiotomy group (n=212) or the no intervention group (n=208; ITT population). The median age was 61·0 years (IQR 53·0-70·0), 102 (24%) patients were female, and 318 (76%) were male, with a median CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 2·0 (IQR 1·0-3·0). The two groups were balanced with respect to clinical and surgical characteristics. No patients were lost to follow-up and data completeness was 100%. Three patients in the posterior left pericardiotomy group did not receive the intervention. In the ITT population, the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation was significantly lower in the posterior left pericardiotomy group than in the no intervention group (37 [17%] of 212 vs 66 [32%] of 208 [p=0·0007]; odds ratio adjusted for the stratification variable 0·44 [95% CI 0·27-0·70; p=0·0005]). Two (1%) of 209 patients in the posterior left pericardiotomy group and one (<1%) of 211 in the no intervention group died within 30 days after hospital discharge. The incidence of postoperative pericardial effusion was lower in the posterior left pericardiotomy group than in the no intervention group (26 [12%] of 209 vs 45 [21%] of 211; relative risk 0·58 [95% CI 0·37-0·91]). Postoperative major adverse events occurred in six (3%) patients in the posterior left pericardiotomy group and in four (2%) in the no intervention group. No posterior left pericardiotomy related complications were seen.

INTERPRETATION

Posterior left pericardiotomy is highly effective in reducing the incidence of atrial fibrillation after surgery on the coronary arteries, aortic valve, or ascending aorta, or a combination of these without additional risk of postoperative complications.

FUNDING

None.

Utility of the CHA2DS2-VASc Score in Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

OBJECTIVE

The authors aimed to investigate the role of CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and its components in prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort.

SETTING

Single-center university-affiliated tertiary cardiac center.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 2,981 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG between 2010 and 2012 were included.

INTERVENTIONS

All patients underwent isolated CABG and were followed until discharge or in-hospital death. The primary outcome was the development of new-onset POAF during the hospital course.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

During hospitalization, continuous electrocardiogram monitoring was used to detect POAF episodes. New-onset POAF developed in 15.8% of patients following isolated CABG. Patients with POAF had significantly higher CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores than those without POAF (2.66 ± 1.51 v 2.12 ± 1.36, p < 0.001). After adjustment for potential confounders, CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was significantly associated with POAF (odds ratio [OR]: 1.295, 95% CI: 1.205-1.391). However, further analyses showed that this effect was restricted to patients with a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of ≥2 (OR: 1.813, 95% CI: 1.220-2.694). In multivariate analysis of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc components, age ≥75 (OR: 3.737, 95% CI: 2.702-5.168), age 65 to 74 (OR: 2.126, 1.701-2.658), hypertension (OR: 1.310, 95% CI: 1.051-1.633), and cerebrovascular accident (OR: 1.807, 95% CI: 1.197-2.726) were independent predictors of POAF. However, the association between POAF and female sex, diabetes mellitus, congestive heart failure, and vascular disease was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

CHA₂DS₂-VASc score is a useful tool for the prediction of POAF after isolated CABG. However, the risk should be interpreted cautiously, since the risk score's promising effect relies on only several of its components.

Comorbidity burden in patients undergoing left atrial appendage closure

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the risk of in-hospital complications after left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) in relationship with comorbidity burden.

METHODS

Cohort-based observational study using the US National Inpatient Sample database, 1 October 2015 to 31 December 2017. The main outcome of interest was the occurrence of in-hospital major adverse events (MAE) defined as the composite of bleeding complications, acute kidney injury, vascular complications, cardiac complications and postprocedural stroke. Comorbidity burden and thromboembolic risk were assessed by the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Elixhauser Comorbidity Score (ECS) and CHA2DS2-VASc score. MAE were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. The associations of comorbidity with in-hospital MAE were evaluated using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 3294 hospitalisations were identified, among these, the mean age was 75.7±8.2 years, 60% were male and 86% whites. The mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 4.3±1.5 and 29.5% of the patients had previous stroke or transient ischaemic attack. The mean CCI and ECS were 2.2±1.9 and 9.7±5.8, respectively. The overall composite rate of in-hospital MAE after LAAC was 4.6%. Females and non-whites had about 1.5 higher odds of in-hospital AEs as well participants with higher CCI (adjusted OR (aOR): 1.19, 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.24, p<0.001), ECS (aOR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.08, p<0.001) and CHA2DS2-VASc score (aOR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.15, p=0.01) were significantly associated with in-hospital MAE.

CONCLUSION

In this large cohort of LAAC patients, the majority of them had significant comorbidity burden. In-hospital MAE occurred in 4.6% and female patients, non-whites and those with higher burden of comorbidities were at higher risk of in-hospital MAE after LAAC.

Association of smoking with postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients with cardiac surgery: A PRISMA-compliant article

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking is an important modifiable risk factor for incident atrial fibrillation. However, the impact of smoking on postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing cardiac surgery remains controversial. We performed this meta-analysis to explore the association of smoking with postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients with cardiac surgery.

METHODS

We systematically searched 2 computer-based databases (PubMed and EMBASE) up to July 2019 for all relevant studies. A random-effects model was selected to pool the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In this meta-analysis, the protocol and reporting of the results were based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement.

RESULTS

A total of 36 studies were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, smoking was not associated with an increased risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing cardiac surgery (odds ratio [OR] = 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79-1.02). The corresponding results were stable in the subgroup analyses. Specifically, smoking was not associated with an increased risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation regardless of the type of cardiac surgery: coronary artery bypass grafting (OR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.77-1.07), valve surgery (OR = 0.15; 95% CI 0.01-1.56), and coronary artery bypass grafting+valve surgery (OR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.70-1.18).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on currently published studies, smoking was not associated with an increased risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Long Term Outcome of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery-A Propensity Score-Matched Cohort Analysis

Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) results in a longer hospital stay and excess mortality. However, whether POAF would increase stroke rate has been debated for years. When and how long should anticoagulation be used to prevent stroke are unknown. In the study, we planned to investigate the clinical demographics and long-term outcomes of POAF after cardiac surgery in a single-center cohort.

Methods: The cohort study used a database from National Taiwan University Hospital, a single tertiary medical center in Taiwan, between 2007 and 2017, to identify patients with prior normal sinus rhythm developing POAF after cardiac surgery. Patients without POAF after cardiac surgery were used as controls. Propensity score matching with 1:1 ratio and Cox regression models were employed to estimate the risk of transient ischemic accident (TIA) or ischemic stroke.

Results: From 2007 to 2017, a total of 8,374 patients received open-heart surgery, in which 1,585 patients with a history of AF were excluded. The overall incidence of TIA/ischemic stroke was 3.9% in a median 9.2-years of follow-up. After propensity matching, 1,965 matched paired subjects were included for analysis. Postoperative atrial fibrillation was associated with an increased risk of future AF [Hazard ratio (HR) 1.40, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.09–1.79, p = 0.008] and heart failure (HF) hospitalization (HR 1.58, 95%CI 1.23–2.04, p < 0.001); however, POAF did not significantly correlate with the risk of TIA/ischemic stroke (HR 1.17, 95%CI 0.85–1.60, p = 0.043). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that POAF was a significant predictor for future AF, HF hospitalization, and overall mortality, but not for TIA/ischemic stroke.

Conclusion: In the Asian population, POAF after cardiac surgery increased the risk of future AF, HF, and overall mortality, but was not associated with future TIA/ischemic stroke.

Predicting atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery using a simplified risk index

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery and can lead to increased risk of postoperative adverse events. However, atrial fibrillation and postoperative adverse events are preventable. In this study, a risk index was developed to predict atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study of 405 patients who had undergone adult cardiac surgery from 2015 September to 2016 August at Heart Institute of HCMC and Cho Ray Hospital were obtained. In order to predict POAF, a logistic regression model was developed, and a risk score was derived and validated by bootstrap.

RESULTS

In our study, 98 patients developed POAF (24.2%). The risk score included three significant risk factors (age ≥ 60, left atrial diameter > 41 mm, Coronary Artery Bypass Graft with concomitant mitral valve replacement or repair) that were consistent with other reports. Each of these risk factors was assigned one point. The total risk score ranges from 0 to 3 (AUC = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.63-0.75) with the best cutoff point at 1. According to this scoring system, the incidences of POAF in patients associated with each score of 0, 1, 2, and 3 were 8.6%, 30.1%, 40.8%, and 58.3% respectively. Bootstrapping with 5000 samples confirmed the final model provided was consistent with predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a simple risk score based on clinical variables that can be obtained before surgery in order to accurately predict the risk of POAF in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation: Features, Mechanisms, and Clinical Management

Advances in atrial fibrillation (AF) management, perioperative medicine, and surgical techniques have reignited an interest in postoperative AF (POAF). POAF results from the interaction among subclinical atrial substrate, surgery-induced substrate, and transient postoperative factors. Prophylaxis for POAF after cardiac surgery is well established but the indications for preoperative treatment in noncardiac surgery need further investigation. A rate-control strategy is adequate for most asymptomatic patients with POAF and anticoagulation should be initiated for POAF more than 48 to 72 hours postsurgery. Research is needed to improve evidence-based management of POAF and guide long-term management in view of the substantial late recurrence-rate.

Assessment of the ability of the CHA2DS2-VASc scoring system to grade left atrial function by 2D speckle-tracking echocardiography

Background

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc scoring system is correlated with left atrial (LA) reservoir function in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) rhythm or paroxysmal AF. We assessed the ability of CHA₂DS₂-VASc to grade LA function in patients with sinus rhythm who were candidates for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

Methods

This cross-sectional study recruited 340 consecutive candidates for CABG and categorized them according to their CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores as mild-, moderate-, and high-risk score groups with 34 (10%), 83 (24%), and 223 (66%) patients, respectively. LA function was evaluated via 2D speckle-tracking echocardiography in terms of global longitudinal strain and strain rate during the reservoir, conduit, and contraction phases. In-hospital mortality, postoperative AF, prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay, and prolonged mechanical ventilation were assessed.

Results

LA strain and strain rate during the reservoir phase was statistically significantly lower in the high-risk score group than the low- and moderate-risk score groups (27.8 ± 6.9% vs 31.0 ± 5.0% vs 29.8 ± 6.1%, respectively; P = 0.004 and 2.6 ± 0.7 s⁻¹ vs 2.9 ± 0.6 s⁻¹ vs 2.9 ± 0.6 s⁻¹, correspondingly; P = 0.009) and regarding LA strain and strain rate during the conduit phase (9.7 [7.1–12.5]% vs 12.9 [9.4–15.1]% vs 11.5 [9.1–13.8]%, correspondingly; P < 0.001 and 2.1 [1.6–2.7] s⁻¹ vs 2.8 [2.4–3.6] s⁻¹ vs 2.6 [2.2–3.0] s⁻¹, respectively; P < 0.001). In addition, LA strain rate during the conduit phase was lower in the moderate-risk score group than the low-risk score group. After adjustments for possible confounders, these differences remained statistically significant. The risk of postoperative AF and prolonged ICU stay was highest in the high-risk score group (relative risk = 9.67 (1.31–71.43) and 8.05 (1.08–60.16), respectively; P = 0.026 and P = 0.042, respectively).

Conclusions

LA reservoir and conduit functions decreased in the high-risk score group, which was accompanied by an increased risk of postoperative AF and prolonged ICU stay.

Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is common after cardiac surgery and linked to poorer short-term and long-term outcomes; however, conflicting evidence exists on stroke risk and how the index procedure affects outcomes. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of the published outcomes of POAF after cardiac surgery, examined as a whole and by index procedure.

METHODS

A systematic review of POAF after cardiac surgery was conducted. Outcomes related to POAF were analyzed in a meta-analysis, and aggregate survival data were derived to examine long-term survival.

RESULTS

Sixty-one studies with 239,018 patients were identified, the majority (78.7%) undergoing coronary surgery. POAF occurred in 25.5% of patients and was associated with significantly higher rates of early mortality and stroke (odds ratio [OR], 1.74; P < .001; and OR, 2.21, P < .001, respectively) along with longer intensive care and overall hospital length of stay (mean difference 0.8 days, P = .008; and mean difference 2.8 days, P < .001, respectively). After a median of 6.6 years (range, 0.5-20 years), mortality and stroke remained significantly higher for those with POAF (OR, 1.57, P < .001; and OR, 1.81, P = .001). Pooled hazard ratio for long-term mortality was significantly higher for patients who underwent coronary surgery compared with isolated valve surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

POAF is common after cardiac surgery and is associated with significantly higher rates of both short-term and long-term stroke and mortality as well as increased hospital stay. Differences in hazard for long-term survival may be due to the underlying pathophysiological risk factors for POAF, which differ by surgical procedure.

Assessment of the relationship between death and CHA2DS2-VASc score in peripheral artery disease

BACKGROUND

The CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, previous stroke, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, female gender) score is used to estimate thromboembolic risk in atrial fibrillation (AF). Current studies have shown that CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>-VASc score can predict adverse clinical outcomes in coronary artery disease, stroke, and many diseases irrespective of the presence of AF. The usefulness of CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>-VASc score in predicting mortality of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) patients is unknown. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>-VASc score for mortality of PAD patients.

METHODS

A total of 396 patients diagnosed with PAD for the first time in our clinic between January 2010-July 2016 were included in this study. Patients were divided into two groups as deceased (group 1, N.=153) and living (group 2, N.=243). A ROC analysis was performed to determine if CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>VASc score could predict the death events among PAD patients. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to evaluate the timing of death events in the two groups.

RESULTS

The mean ages of group 1 and group 2 were 76.6±0.81 and 66.5±0.83 (P=0.007), respectively. The CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>VASc scores of group-1 (4.37±0.1) and group 2 (2.96±0.9) were significantly different (P<0.001). A significant correlation between CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>VASc score and death was determined in Spearman correlation (R:0.454, P<0.001). According to multivariate cox regression analysis, CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>-VASc score [odds ratio (OR): 1.81 (95% CI: 1.42-2.30); P<0.001], Stroke [OR: 0.43 (95% CI: 0.21-0.85); P=0.016] and CRP [OR: 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01-1.06); P=0.002] were independent predictors of death.

CONCLUSIONS

The CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>VASc score is directly related with mortality in PAD patients. The CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>VASc score may be a useful and practical scoring method to identify high-risk patients, and further future studies are needed to assess the role of CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>VASc score in PAD.

The Validation of the ATRIA and CHA2DS2-Vasc Scores in Predicting Atrial Fibrillation after Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery

Objective

The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of CHA₂DS₂-VASc and Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) risk scores for prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) development in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) operation.

Methods

The population of this observational study consisted of 370 patients undergoing CABG operation. CHA₂DS₂-VASc and ATRIA risk scores were calculated for all patients and their association with postoperative AF (AF episode lasting > 5 min) were evaluated. Predictors of postoperative AF were determined by multiple logistic regression analysis.

Results

During follow-up, 110 patients (29.7%) developed postoperative AF. With multiple logistic regression analysis, risk factors for postoperative AF were determined: ATRIA risk score (odds ratio [OR] 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.36; P<0.001), fasting glucose level (OR 1.006; 95% CI 1.004-1.009; P<0.001), and 24-hour drainage amount (OR 1.002; 95% CI; 1.001-1.004; P<0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed that CHA₂DS₂-VASc and ATRIA risk scores were significant predictors for new-onset AF (C-statistic 0.648; 95% CI 0.59-0.69; P<0.001; and C-statistic 0.664; 95% CI 0.61-0.71; P<0.001, respectively).

Conclusion

CHA₂DS₂-VASc and ATRIA risk scores predict new AF in patients undergoing CABG.

Development and Validation of A Simple Clinical Risk Prediction Model for New-Onset Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: Nopaf Score

Introduction

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAFib) occurs in 20 to 40% of patients following cardiac surgery, and is associated with an increased perioperative morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop and validate a simple clinical risk model for the prediction of POAFib after cardiac surgery.

Methods

An analytical single center retrospective cohort study was conducted, including consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2017 with POAFib. To create the predictive risk score, a logistic regression model was performed using a random sample of 75% of the population. Coefficients of the model were then converted to a numerical risk score, and three groups were defined: low risk (≤1 point), intermediate risk (2-5 points) and high risk (≥6 points). The score was validated using the remaining 25% of the patients. Discrimination was evaluated through the area under the curve (AUC) ROC, and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test, calibration plots, and ratio of expected and observed events (E/O).

Results

Six thousand five hundred nine patients underwent cardiac surgery: 52% coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 20% valve surgery, 14% combined (CABG and valve surgery) and 12% other. New-onset AF occurred in 1222 patients (18.77%). In the multivariate analysis, age, use of cardiopulmonary bypass pump, severe reduction in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), chronic renal disease and heart failure were independent risk factors for POAFib, while the use of statins was a protective factor. The NOPAF score was calculated by adding points for each independent risk predictor. In the derivation cohort, the AUC was 0.71 (CI95% 0.69-0.72), and in the validation cohort the model also showed good discrimination (AUC 0.67 IC 0.64-0.70) and excellent calibration (HL P = 0.24). The E/O ratio was 1 (CI 95%: 0.89-1.12). According to the risk category, POAFib occurred in 5% of low; 11% of intermediate and 27.7% of high risk patients in the derivation cohort (P <0.001), and 5.7%; 12.6%; and 23.6% in the validation cohort respectively (P <0.001).

Conclusion

From a large hospitalized population, we developed and validated a simple risk score named NOPAF, based on clinical variables that accurately stratifies the risk of POAFib. This score may help to identify high-risk patients prior to cardiac surgery, in order to strengthen postoperative atrial fibrillation prophylaxis.

Preoperative soluble VCAM-1 contributes to predict late mortality after coronary artery surgery

Background

Soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule‐1 has been associated with long‐term cardiovascular mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease and to the development of new atrial fibrillation in subjects with cardiovascular risk factors but no evidence of cardiac disease.

Hypothesis

Preoperative soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule‐1 predicts the risk of future all‐cause death and cardiovascular death among patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass surgery.

Methods

From a cohort of 312 patients who underwent elective coronary artery bypass surgery prospectively followed for a median of 6.7 years, we evaluated the prognostic role of preoperative soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule‐1, inflammatory markers, CHA2DS2‐VASc score and development of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF). Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to establish an association of these parameters with long term all‐cause death and cardiovascular death.

Results

During 2112 person‐years of follow‐up, we observed 41 deaths, 10 were cardiovascular deaths. Independently increased levels of preoperative soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule‐1, POAF, and CHA2DS2‐VASc score were associated with all‐cause mortality. After multivariate adjustment, elevated preoperative soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule‐1 and POAF were the only independent predictors of all‐cause death. Also, preoperative soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule‐1, POAF, and CHA2DS2‐VASc score resulted in being independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality.

Conclusions

Increased circulating levels of preoperative soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule‐1, together with POAF and CHA2DS2‐VASc score, were significantly associated with future all‐cause death and cardiovascular death among patients submitted to coronary artery bypass surgery.

Prospective evaluation of the utility of CHA2DS2-VASc score in the prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation after off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery - An observational study

Introduction:

Off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) surgery is associated with evasion of complications of cardiac bypass. The incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) may also be reduced because of less ischemia and inflammation.

Aim:

Prospective evaluation of utility of CHA₂DS₂-VASc score in the prediction of POAF after OPCAB surgery.

Methodology:

In this prospective, observational study, 99 patients who underwent elective isolated OPCAB surgery were included. Patients with pacemaker in situ, receiving antiarrhythmic drugs preoperatively, and preexisting atrial fibrillation were excluded. A detailed history taking and physical examination were done preoperatively and the CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores were calculated for each patient. They received a standard anesthetic including midazolam, fentanyl, propofol, vecuronium, and isoflurane. The number of grafts, inotrope usage, and blood product transfusion in the perioperative period were noted. Patients were followed up for 5 days after surgery for development of new onset POAF requiring treatment.

Results:

About 20 of the 99 patients developed POAF. POAF occurred most commonly on postoperative day 2. They were older, more likely diabetic, had preoperative diastolic dysfunction, and received blood products perioperatively. POAF group had higher mean CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (3.6 ± 0.821 vs. 2.11 ± 1.35) and had longer hospital stay (16.85 ± 8.61 vs. 12.6 ± 4.05 days) than no POAF group. The cutoff for CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was 3, which showed 90% sensitivity, 77.22% specificity, 50% positive predictive value, and 96.63% negative predictive value.

Conclusions:

CHA₂DS₂-VASc score is useful in predicting POAF after OPCAB surgery. Higher the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, greater is the possibility of development of POAF.

Current State of Surgical Left Atrial Appendage Exclusion: How and When

Left atrial appendage exclusion is efficacious for stroke prophylaxis in patients with atrial fibrillation. Surgical excision provides reliable left atrial appendage exclusion, whereas surgical occlusion does not. Specifically, 2-layer internal suture ligation has a high failure rate. Left atrial appendage exclusion concomitant to another cardiac surgical procedure is indicated in patients with atrial fibrillation but not in patients without baseline atrial fibrillation. Studies currently underway will further define the role of concomitant surgical left atrial appendage exclusion, especially for the population without baseline atrial fibrillation but at high risk of developing postoperative atrial fibrillation.

Reducing New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Postoperative atrial fibrillation is the most common dysrhythmia to occur after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. It develops in 10% to 40% of patients and can lead to complications such as hemodynamic instability, heart failure, and stroke. Risk factors include hypertension, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and obesity. Patients who experience postoperative atrial fibrillation often have longer hospital stays, are at higher risk for readmission, and have increased mortality. Protocols designed to reduce the incidence of the condition can decrease hospital costs, improve patient outcomes, and increase overall quality of care. This quality improvement project took place in a tertiary care center located in southeastern Michigan and focused on the development and implementation of an evidence-based postoperative atrial fibrillation prophylaxis protocol using amiodarone. The outcomes of this project suggest that amiodarone prophylaxis can reduce the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients with no previous history of atrial fibrillation undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation Following Cardiac Surgery: From Pathogenesis to Potential Therapies

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a major complication after cardiac surgery which can lead to high rates of morbidity and mortality, an enhanced length of hospital stay, and an increased cost of care. POAF is postulated to be a multifactorial phenomenon; however, some major pathogeneses have been proposed, including inflammatory pathways, oxidative stress, and autonomic dysfunction. Genetic studies also showed that inflammatory pathways, beta-1 adrenoreceptor variants, G protein-coupled receptor kinase 5 gene variants, and non-coding single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the 4q25 chromosomal locus are involved in this phenomenon. Moreover, several predisposing factors lead to the development of POAF, consisting of pre-, intra-, and postoperative contributors. The main predisposing factors comprise age, prior history of major cardiovascular risk factors, and ischemia-reperfusion injury during surgery. The management of POAF is based on the usual therapies used for non-surgical AF, including medications for either rate control or rhythm control in hemodynamically unstable patients. The perioperative administration of β-blockers and some antiarrhythmic agents has been recommended in major international guidelines. In addition, upstream therapies consisting of colchicine, magnesium, statins, and antioxidants have attenuated the incidence of POAF; however, some uncomfortable side effects developed in large randomized trials. The use of anticoagulation has also resulted in less mortality in patients with POAF at higher risk of thromboembolic events. Despite these recommendations, the actual regimen for the prevention of POAF remains controversial. In this review, we highlight the pathogenesis, predisposing factors, and potential therapeutic options for the management of patients at risk for or with POAF following cardiac surgery.

The concentration of resistin in perivascular adipose tissue after CABG and postoperative atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation occurs in up to 30% of patients after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) and its cause is unknown. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether concentration of resistin in surrounding coronary artery perivascular adipose tissue (PVAT) is related to postoperative atrial fibrillation occurrence.

METHODS

A total number of 46 patients (35 male, 11 female; median age 66.5) were qualified for elective CABG. Medical history, laboratory test results and echocardiographic parameters were noted. Patients were monitored up to 3 days after CABG and then were divided into groups with and without postoperative atrial fibrillation occurrence. Fragments of PVAT were collected intra-operatively: near the left anterior descending artery and main left coronary artery. The concentration of resistin was determined by Human Resistin Quantikine ELISA Kit and expressed as ng/g. A multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed to find variables related to postoperative atrial fibrillation occurrence.

RESULTS

Postoperative atrial fibrillation occurred in 14 (30.4%) patients. The patients with and without postoperative atrial fibrillation were similar in age, gender, epicardial adipose tissue thickness and laboratory parameters. The concentration of resistin in PVAT near the left main coronary artery was significantly higher in patients with postoperative atrial fibrillation than in those without the complication (P = 0.03). In the multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis the concentration of resistin above cut-off point 54 ng/g in PVAT near left main coronary artery was independently related to postoperative atrial fibrillation occurrence (OR: 7.7; 95% CI:1.4-42.2 p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

The higher concentrations of resistin in PVAT near the left main coronary artery which is located close to the left atrium are associated with postoperative atrial fibrillation.

CHA2DS2-VASc Score for Identifying Patients at High Risk of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: A Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery, resulting in an increased risk of morbidity and longer hospital stay. Pharmacologic prophylaxis has been recommended to improve the outcome in patients at high risk of developing POAF after cardiac surgery. Several studies have applied the CHA₂DS₂-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension Age [≥65 = 1 point, ≥75 = 2 points], Diabetes, and Stroke/transient ischemic attack (2 points)-vascular disease [peripheral arterial disease, previous myocardial infarction, aortic atheroma]) score in the risk stratification of POAF but yielded contradicting results. This study aims to determine the association between CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and POAF and further to explore its discriminative ability for the prediction of POAF.

METHODS

We systematically searched the Medline, Embase, Cochrane library, and other data sources with key terms "CHA₂DS₂-VASc," "atrial fibrillation," and "cardiac surgery." Studies designed for CHA₂DS₂-VASc score in stratifying the risks of POAF in patients undergoing cardiac surgery were included. Statistical analyses were performed with R 3.5.1 and STATA 13.0.

RESULTS

Seven hundred twenty-one studies were identified, of which 12 studies with 18,086 patients were finally included in our analysis. The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was found to be an independent predictor of POAF after cardiac surgery (odds ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25-1.72) and exhibited a relatively strong specificity (0.70; 95% CI, 0.61-0.78) and sensitivity (0.72; 95% CI, 0.54-0.85) for predicting POAF. The bivariate model-based pooled area under the receiver operating curve was estimated to be 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score has relatively good performance in predicting POAF after cardiac surgery and may help identify the patients at high risk of POAF.

New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Adult Patients After Cardiac Surgery

Purpose of Review

An overview of recent literature regarding pathophysiology, risk factors, prophylaxis, and treatment of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in post-cardiac surgical patients.

Recent Findings

AF is the most frequent adverse event after cardiac surgery with significant associated morbidity, mortality, and financial cost. Its causes are multifactorial, and models to stratify patients into risk categories are progressing but a consistent, evidence-based system has not yet been developed. Pharmacologic and surgical interventions to prevent and treat this complication have been an area of ongoing research and recent societal guidelines reflect this.

Summary

Inconsistencies remain surrounding how to best identify higher-risk AF patients, which interventions should be used to prevent and treat AF, and which patient groups should receive these interventions. The evidence for these available strategies and their place in contemporary guidelines are summarized.

Postoperative atrial fibrillation is associated with higher scores on predictive indices

OBJECTIVE

To compare the performance of the CHADS VASc, POAF, and HATCH scoring systems to predict new-onset atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center cohort study, performing a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. The study included consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2016. The primary outcome was the development of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation during hospitalization.

RESULTS

A total of 3113 patients underwent cardiac surgery during the study period: coronary artery bypass graft surgery (45%), valve replacement (24%), combined procedure (revascularization-valve surgery) (15%), and other procedures (16%). Twenty-one percent (n = 654) presented postoperative atrial fibrillation. Median scores in patients with postoperative atrial fibrillation were significantly higher (P < .001). The CHAD2DS2-VASc score demonstrated greater discriminative ability to predict the event (C-statistic, 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-0.79) versus the POAF score and the HATCH score (C-statistic, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.73 and C-statistic, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.67-0.72, respectively). All 3 scores presented good calibration according to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test univariate and multivariable analysis demonstrated that the 3 scores were independent predictors of postoperative atrial fibrillation: CHA2DS2-VASc score odds ratio 1.87 (95% CI, 1.64-2.13), POAF score odds ratio 1.18 (95% CI, 1.01-1.36), and HATCH score odds ratio 1.62 (95% CI, 1.37-1.92).

CONCLUSIONS

The POAF, CHA2DS2-VASc, and HATCH scoring systems showed good discrimination and calibration to predict postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Among them, the CHA2DS2-Vasc score presented the best discriminative ability for postoperative atrial fibrillation and has the advantage of being easy to calculate.

Performance and validation of a simplified postoperative atrial fibrillation risk score

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) occurs in 20-40% patients who received isolated coronary artery cardiac bypass surgery (CABG). Several POAF risk prediction models have been developed, but none of them is widely adopted in practice. Our objective was to derive and validate a simple scoring system to estimate POAF risk after isolated CABG, using easily available clinical information.

METHODS

Medical records of 1,000 consecutive patients undergoing isolated CABG were reviewed. The data of first 700 patients were used for model derivation and data of the remaining 300 patients were used for model validation. Discrimination and calibration of the newly developed model were assessed.

RESULTS

POAF incidence in both the derivation and validation cohorts was 27.3%. Age ≥65, history of hypertension, heart failure, and myocardial infarction were independently associated with POAF risk. Risk scores were calculated by summing weighting points for each independent predictor. The score ≥3 was associated with high POAF incidence (41.1% in the derivation cohort and 44.3% in the validation cohort). The positive and negative POAF predictive value was 41.1% and 78.5%, respectively, in the derivation cohort, and 44.3% and 80.8%, respectively, in the validation cohort, when the cut-point score ≥3 was used. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test P-values were 0.917 and 0.894 in the derivation cohort and validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This POAF risk following isolated CABG can be predicted with simple patient characteristic during the preoperative period. Patients with high risk scores (≥3) may constitute a target population for POAF prevention and prolonged postoperative surveillance.