Decision analysis and Markov modeling in urology

Comparative quality-adjusted survival analysis between radiation therapy alone and radiation with androgen deprivation therapy in patients with locally advanced prostate cancer: a secondary analysis of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 85-31 with novel decision analysis methods

Background

Androgen deprivation therapy in addition to radiation therapy (RT + ADT) has shown benefits in local control and progression-free survival compared with RT alone for patients with locally advanced prostate cancer in Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 85-31. However, the survival gain may be diluted with increased toxicity of ADT. The aim of the study is to compare quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) values between two groups.

Methods

We developed “quality-adjusted survival analysis using duration” (QASAD) and “quality-adjusted survival analysis using probability” (QASAP) to estimate the quality-adjusted survival time. The QASAD uses the median duration in each health state to weight the utilities, whereas the QASAP uses the proportional probability of being in each state for weighting. The survival and complication rates were reconstructed based on published Kaplan–Meier survival curves, and the utility values for states were obtained from the previous literature.

Results

QALYs values for RT + ADT were generally higher than those for RT. The QASAD resulted in a QALY value of 4.93 [95% bootstrapped confidence interval (CI) = 4.12–5.71] for RT and of 5.60 (95% CI = 4.30–6.48) for RT + ADT. QASAP resulted in a QALY value of 4.85 (95% CI = 4.16–5.39) for RT and 4.96 (95% CI = 3.73–5.78) for RT + ADT.

Conclusions

We showed that RT + ADT provided slightly better quality-adjusted survival outcome than RT alone. The QASAD and QASAP methods may help the decision of optimal treatment balancing between survival gain and unfavorable quality of life.

Economic analyses of stress urinary incontinence surgical procedures in women

INTRODUCTION

To evaluate the quality of economic analysis (EA) of surgical procedures for stress urinary incontinence (SUI) in women.

METHODS

A MEDLINE search on EA for SUI surgical procedures for the years 2000-2014 included the MeSH terms "tension-free vaginal tape," "TVT," "trans-obturator tape," "TOT," "Burch colposuspension" (BC), "stress urinary incontinence," "economic analysis," and "cost-effectiveness analysis." Important criteria for evaluating articles were selected from panels that set out criteria to evaluate EA [Scales CD, Jr., Christopher SS, American Urological Association 32:121-128, 2013], [Hsieh MH, Maxwell MV, J Urol 178 1867-1874, 2007], [Wu JM, Catherine CM, Conover MM, et al., Obstet Gynecol 123 1201-1206, 2014].

RESULTS

Thirteen articles were identified: TVT compared to BC (6), to other surgical procedures for SUI (1), to TOT (3) and to the mini-sling (1); open BC compared to laparoscopic BC (1), and analysis of various slings and meshes for various types of incontinence (1). Articles originated from: United States (3), Europe (4), United Kingdom (4), and Canada (2). Eight described cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), two cost-utility analysis, and three cost comparison. Follow-up time for patients ranged from 6 to 24 months in eight articles, with four having a minimum of 24 months follow-up. Studies mostly adhered to the criteria, however indirect costs, sensitivity analysis, and efficacy parameters varied. Long-term synthetic sling-related complications were not included.

CONCLUSION

Although CEA for SUI surgery is a burgeoning field, study comparisons remain difficult due to some variability, including health care delivery systems. As women live longer, long-term data will become critical as complications and reoperations can affect the real cost of SUI corrective procedures. Neurourol. Urodynam. 35:1040-1045, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Economic analysis of active surveillance for localized prostate cancer

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Active surveillance is gaining wider acceptance in the urologic community as an effective treatment option for patients with low-risk prostate cancer. The purpose of this review is to analyze the economics of active surveillance in comparison with other therapies.

RECENT FINDINGS

Evaluating the economics of active surveillance in patients with low-risk prostate cancer is constrained by a prolonged natural history of disease. Recent cost model studies using hypothetical patients with low-risk prostate cancer showed that the estimated direct cost of active surveillance over long term was the lowest compared with direct costs of immediate treatment with radical prostatectomy, external beam radiation therapy, primary androgen deprivation therapy or brachytherapy. Active surveillance is associated with more quality-adjusted life years than immediate therapies with similar or lower lifetime costs. Physician reimbursement for active surveillance exceeded that from upfront radical prostatectomy after 3-5 years of follow-up and may be an important driving factor for physicians to practice active surveillance.

SUMMARY

Active surveillance appears to reduce prostate cancer healthcare expenditure by reducing the number of costly therapies. Results from clinical trials will allow the measurement of the true economic value of active surveillance in the future.

When is pharmacogenetic testing for antidepressant response ready for the clinic? A cost-effectiveness analysis based on data from the STAR*D study

The potential of personalized medicine to transform the treatment of mood disorders has been widely touted in psychiatry, but has not been quantified. We estimated the costs and benefits of a putative pharmacogenetic test for antidepressant response in the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) from the societal perspective. Specifically, we performed cost-effectiveness analyses using state-transition probability models incorporating probabilities from the multicenter STAR*D effectiveness study of MDD. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were compared for sequential antidepressant trials, with or without guidance from a pharmacogenetic test for differential response to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs). Likely SSRI responders received an SSRI, whereas likely nonresponders received the norepinephrine/dopamine reuptake inhibitor bupropion. For a 40-year old with MDD, applying the pharmacogenetic test and using the non-SSRI bupropion for those at higher risk for nonresponse cost $93,520 per additional QALY compared with treating all patients with an SSRI first and switching sequentially in the case of nonremission. Cost per QALY dropped below $50,000 for tests with remission rate ratios as low as 1.5, corresponding to odds ratios approximately 1.8-2.0. Tests for differential antidepressant response could thus become cost effective under certain circumstances. These circumstances, particularly availability of alternative treatment strategies and test effect sizes, can be estimated and should be considered before these tests are broadly applied in clinical settings.

The use of clinical utility assessments in early clinical development

A quickly realizable benefit of model-based drug development is in reducing uncertainty in risk/benefit, comprising individually of safety and effectiveness, two key attributes of a product evaluated for regulatory approval, marketing, and use. In this review, we investigate gaps and opportunities in using fundamental decision analytic principles in drug development and present a quantitative clinical pharmacology framework for the application of such aids for early clinical development decision making. We anticipate that implementation of such emerging tools will enable sufficient scientific understanding of the two attributes to facilitate the early termination of compounds with less than desirable risk/benefit profiles and continuance of compounds with acceptable risk/benefit profiles.