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Yang CT, Chong KS, Wang CC, Ou HT, Kuo S. Adaptation of risk prediction equations for cardiovascular outcomes among patients with type 2 diabetes in real-world settings: a cross-institutional study using common data model approach. Cardiovasc Diabetol 2024; 23:244. [PMID: 38987773 PMCID: PMC11238483 DOI: 10.1186/s12933-024-02320-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2024] [Accepted: 06/16/2024] [Indexed: 07/12/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To adapt risk prediction equations for myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and heart failure (HF) among patients with type 2 diabetes in real-world settings using cross-institutional electronic health records (EHRs) in Taiwan. METHODS The EHRs from two medical centers, National Cheng Kung University Hospital (NCKUH; 11,740 patients) and National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH; 20,313 patients), were analyzed using the common data model approach. Risk equations for MI, stroke, and HF from UKPDS-OM2, RECODe, and CHIME models were adapted for external validation and recalibration. External validation was assessed by (1) discrimination, evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and (2) calibration, evaluated by calibration slopes and intercepts and the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino (GND) test. Recalibration was conducted for unsatisfactory calibration (p-value of GND test < 0.05) by adjusting the baseline hazards of original equations to address variations in patients' cardiovascular risks across institutions. RESULTS The CHIME risk equations had acceptable discrimination (AUROC: 0.71-0.79) and better calibration than that for UKPDS-OM2 and RECODe, although the calibration remained unsatisfactory. After recalibration, the calibration slopes/intercepts of the CHIME-MI, CHIME-stroke, and CHIME-HF risk equations were 0.9848/- 0.0008, 1.1003/- 0.0046, and 0.9436/0.0063 in the NCKUH population and 1.1060/- 0.0011, 0.8714/0.0030, and 1.0476/- 0.0016 in the NTUH population, respectively. All the recalibrated risk equations showed satisfactory calibration (p-values of GND tests ≥ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS We provide valid risk prediction equations for MI, stroke, and HF outcomes in Taiwanese type 2 diabetes populations. A framework for adapting risk equations across institutions is also proposed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chun-Ting Yang
- Institute of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Kah Suan Chong
- Institute of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Chi-Chuan Wang
- School of Pharmacy, College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Graduate Institute of Clinical Pharmacy, College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Pharmacy, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Huang-Tz Ou
- Institute of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan.
- Department of Pharmacy, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan.
| | - Shihchen Kuo
- Institute of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
- Division of Metabolism, Endocrinology and Diabetes, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
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Shao H, Shi L, Fonseca V, Alsaleh AJO, Gill J, Nicholls C. An exploratory analysis of the cost-effectiveness of insulin glargine 300 units/mL versus insulin glargine 100 units/mL over a lifetime horizon using the BRAVO diabetes model. Diabet Med 2024; 41:e15303. [PMID: 38470100 DOI: 10.1111/dme.15303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2023] [Revised: 01/22/2024] [Accepted: 01/24/2024] [Indexed: 03/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND This analysis assessed the cost-effectiveness of insulin glargine 300 units/mL (Gla-300) versus insulin glargine 100 units/mL (Gla-100) in insulin-naïve adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) inadequately controlled with oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs). METHODS Costs and outcomes for Gla-300 versus Gla-100 from a US healthcare payer perspective were assessed using the BRAVO diabetes model. Baseline clinical data were derived from EDITION-3, a 12-month randomized controlled trial comparing Gla-300 with Gla-100 in insulin-naïve adults with inadequately controlled T2D on OADs. Treatment costs were calculated based on doses observed in EDITION-3 and 2020 US net prices, while costs for complications were based on published literature. Lifetime costs ($US) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were predicted and used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) estimates; extensive scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS Lifetime medical costs were estimated to be $353,441 and $352,858 for individuals receiving Gla-300 and Gla-100 respectively; insulin costs were $52,613 and $50,818. Gla-300 was associated with a gain of 8.97 QALYs and 21.12 life-years, while Gla-100 was associated with a gain of 8.89 QALYs and 21.07 life-years. This resulted in an ICER of $7522/QALY gained for Gla-300 versus Gla-100. Thus, Gla-300 was cost-effective versus Gla-100 based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY. Compared with Gla-100, Gla-300 provided a net monetary benefit of $3290. Scenario and sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the base case. CONCLUSION Gla-300 may be a cost-effective treatment option versus Gla-100 over a lifetime horizon for insulin-naïve people in the United States with T2D inadequately controlled on OADs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Shao
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Emory Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, University of Florida College of Pharmacy, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Lizheng Shi
- School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
| | - Vivian Fonseca
- School of Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
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Niu S, Alkhuzam KA, Guan D, Jiao T, Shi L, Fonseca V, Laiteerapong N, Ali MK, Schatz DA, Guo J, Shao H. 5-Year simulation of diabetes-related complications in people treated with tirzepatide or semaglutide versus insulin glargine. Diabetes Obes Metab 2024; 26:463-472. [PMID: 37867175 PMCID: PMC11115367 DOI: 10.1111/dom.15332] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2023] [Revised: 09/25/2023] [Accepted: 10/02/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023]
Abstract
AIM This study compared the 5-year incidence rate of macrovascular and microvascular complications for tirzepatide, semaglutide and insulin glargine in individuals with type 2 diabetes, using the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) diabetes simulation model. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This study was a 5-year SURPASS-2 trial extrapolation, with an insulin glargine arm added as an additional comparator. The 1-year treatment effects of tirzepatide (5, 10 or 15 mg), semaglutide (1 mg) and insulin glargine on glycated haemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein and body weights were obtained from the SUSTAIN-4 and SURPASS-2 trials. We used the BRAVO model to predict 5-year complications for each study arm under two scenarios: the 1-year treatment effects persisted (optimistic) or diminished to none in 5 years (conservative). RESULTS When compared with insulin glargine, we projected a 5-year risk reduction in cardiovascular adverse events [rate ratio (RR) 0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.67] and microvascular composite (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.64-0.70) with 15 mg tirzepatide, and 5-year risk reduction in cardiovascular adverse events (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.72-0.79) and microvascular composite (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.76-0.82) with semaglutide (1 mg) under an optimistic scenario. Lower doses of tirzepatide also had similar, albeit smaller benefits. Treatment effects for tirzepatide and semaglutide were smaller but still significantly higher than insulin glargine under a conservative scenario. The 5-year risk reduction in diabetes-related complication events and mortality for the 15 mg tirzepatide compared with insulin glargine ranged from 49% to 10% under an optimistic scenario, which was reduced by 17%-33% when a conservative scenario was assumed. CONCLUSION With the use of the BRAVO diabetes model, tirzepatide and semaglutide exhibited potential to reduce the risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications among individuals with type 2 diabetes, compared with insulin glargine in a 5-year window. Based on the current modelling assumptions, tirzepatide (15 mg) may potentially outperform semaglutide (1 mg). While the BRAVO model offered insights, the long-term cardiovascular benefit of tirzepatide should be further validated in a prospective clinical trial.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shu Niu
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Khalid A. Alkhuzam
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Dawei Guan
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Tianze Jiao
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
- Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Lizheng Shi
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana
| | - Vivian Fonseca
- Section of Endocrinology, Tulane University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
| | - Neda Laiteerapong
- Biological Sciences Division, Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Mohammed K Ali
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
- Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Desmond A Schatz
- Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Jingchuan Guo
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
- Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Hui Shao
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
- Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
- Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
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Shao H, Shi L, Fonseca V, Alsaleh AJO, Gill J, Nicholls C. Cost-effectiveness analysis of once-daily insulin glargine 300 U/mL versus insulin degludec 100 U/mL using the BRAVO diabetes model. Diabet Med 2023; 40:e15112. [PMID: 37035994 DOI: 10.1111/dme.15112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2022] [Revised: 04/04/2023] [Accepted: 04/07/2023] [Indexed: 04/11/2023]
Abstract
AIMS A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted to compare insulin glargine 300 U/mL (Gla-300) versus insulin degludec 100 U/mL (IDeg-100) in insulin-naïve adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) sub-optimally controlled with oral anti-diabetic drugs (OADs). METHODS The BRAVO diabetes model was used to assess costs and outcomes for once-daily Gla-300 versus once-daily IDeg-100 from a US healthcare sector perspective. Baseline clinical data were based on BRIGHT, a 24-week, non-inferiority, randomised control trial comparing Gla-300 and IDeg-100 in adults with T2D sub-optimally controlled with OADs (with or without glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists). Treatment costs were based on doses observed in BRIGHT as well as net prices. Costs associated with complications were based on published literature. Lifetime costs (US$) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were predicted and used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio estimates; extensive scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS Overall lifetime medical costs were estimated to be $327,904 and $330,154 for people receiving Gla-300 and IDeg-100, respectively; insulin costs were $43,477 and $44,367, respectively. People receiving Gla-300 gained 8.024 QALYs and 18.55 life-years, while people receiving IDeg-100 gained 7.997 QALYs and 18.52 life-years. Because Gla-300 was associated with a cost-saving of $2250 and 0.027 additional QALYs, it was considered to be dominant compared with IDeg-100. Results of the scenario and sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the base case results. CONCLUSION Gla-300 was the dominant treatment option compared with IDeg-100 based on the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY. Results remained robust against a wide range of alternative assumptions on key parameters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Shao
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Emory Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, University of Florida College of Pharmacy, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Lizheng Shi
- School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
| | - Vivian Fonseca
- School of Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
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Lim LL, Chow E, Chan JCN. Cardiorenal diseases in type 2 diabetes mellitus: clinical trials and real-world practice. Nat Rev Endocrinol 2023; 19:151-163. [PMID: 36446898 DOI: 10.1038/s41574-022-00776-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) can have multiple comorbidities and premature mortality due to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, hospitalization with heart failure and/or chronic kidney disease. Traditional drugs that lower glucose, such as metformin, or that treat high blood pressure and blood levels of lipids, such as renin-angiotensin-system inhibitors and statins, have organ-protective effects in patients with T2DM. Amongst patients with T2DM treated with these traditional drugs, randomized clinical trials have confirmed the additional cardiorenal benefits of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA) and nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. The cardiorenal benefits of SGLT2i extended to patients with heart failure and/or chronic kidney disease without T2DM, whereas incretin-based therapy (such as GLP1RA) reduced cardiovascular events in patients with obesity and T2DM. However, considerable care gaps exist owing to insufficient detection, therapeutic inertia and poor adherence to these life-saving medications. In this Review, we discuss the complex interconnections of cardiorenal-metabolic diseases and strategies to implement evidence-based practice. Furthermore, we consider the need to conduct clinical trials combined with registers in specific patient segments to evaluate existing and emerging therapies to address unmet needs in T2DM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lee-Ling Lim
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Elaine Chow
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Hong Kong Institute of Diabetes and Obesity, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Phase 1 Clinical Trial Centre, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Juliana C N Chan
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
- Hong Kong Institute of Diabetes and Obesity, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
- Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
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Shao H, Guo J, Laiteerapong N, Tang S, Fonseca V, Shi L, Zhang P. Lowering hemoglobin A1c level to less than 6.0% in people with type 2 diabetes may reduce major adverse cardiovascular events: a Bayesian's narrative. Curr Med Res Opin 2022; 38:1883-1884. [PMID: 36164760 PMCID: PMC9737997 DOI: 10.1080/03007995.2022.2129234] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2022] [Revised: 09/09/2022] [Accepted: 09/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
Whether lowering the hemoglobin A1c to <6.0% in patients with type 2 diabetes can reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains under debate. The ACCORDION and the VADT studies both found reductions in the primary CVD composite associated with intensive glycemic control, though the difference is not statistically significant. However, the lack of significance is often overinterpreted as non-effective: a p-value >.05 only implies that the study "failed to reject" the null hypothesis (i.e. lowering the A1c level to <6.0% results in no CVD benefit), which is different from concluding the null hypothesis being true. In this study, we used Bayesian analysis to reanalyze results from the ACCORDION and VADT-15 trials. Our results suggest achieving an A1c goal of <6.0% as compared to moderate control could result in a moderate risk reduction in MACE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Shao
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, FL, USA
- Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety (CoDES), University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Jingchuan Guo
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, FL, USA
- Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety (CoDES), University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | - Shichao Tang
- Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Vivian Fonseca
- Department of Medicine and Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Lizheng Shi
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Ping Zhang
- Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
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Shao H, Shi L, Lin Y, Fonseca V. Using modern risk engines and machine learning/artificial intelligence to predict diabetes complications: A focus on the BRAVO model. J Diabetes Complications 2022; 36:108316. [PMID: 36201893 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2022.108316] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2022] [Revised: 08/16/2022] [Accepted: 09/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Management of diabetes requires a multifaceted approach of risk factor reduction; through management of risk factors such as glucose, blood pressure and cholesterol. Goals for these risk factors often vary and guidelines suggest that this is based on patient characteristics and need to be individualized. Evaluating risk is therefore critically important to determine goals and choose appropriate treatments. A risk engine is an analytic tool that collects a large amount of population data allowing the simulation of the progression of diabetes with set equations over a period of time. Recently, a number of data cohorts have become available, leading to the development of newer risk engines that are more dynamic and generalizable. An example is the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes in (BRAVO) diabetes model which was built on the ACCORD trial database. It is capable of accurately predicting diabetes comorbidities in an international population based on calibration with international clinical trial data. It has potential uses in risk stratification of patients, evaluation of interventions and calculation of their long term cost effectiveness. Recently, it has been used to simulate long term outcomes based on short term data, using difference modelling scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Shao
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States of America
| | - Lizheng Shi
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, United States of America
| | - Yilu Lin
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, United States of America
| | - Vivian Fonseca
- Department of Medicine and Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, United States of America; Tulane University Health Sciences Center, 1430 Tulane Avenue - SL 53, New Orleans, LA 70112, United States of America.
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Shao H, Guan D, Guo J, Jiao T, Zhang Y, Luo J, Shi L, Fonseca V, Brown JD. Projected Impact of the Medicare Part D Senior Savings Model on Diabetes-Related Health and Economic Outcomes Among Insulin Users Covered by Medicare. Diabetes Care 2022; 45:1814-1821. [PMID: 35700384 PMCID: PMC9999033 DOI: 10.2337/dc21-2601] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2021] [Accepted: 05/03/2022] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The Medicare Part D Senior Savings Model (SSM) took effect on 1 January 2021. In this study we estimated the number of beneficiaries who would benefit from SSM and the long-term health and economic consequences of implementing this new policy. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data for Medicare beneficiaries with diabetes treated with insulin were extracted from the 2018 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. A validated diabetes microsimulation model estimated health and economic impacts of the new policy for the 5-year initial implementation period and a 20-year extended policy horizon. Costs were estimated from a health system perspective. RESULTS Of 4.2 million eligible Medicare beneficiaries, 1.6 million (38.3%) would benefit from the policy, and out-of-pocket (OOP) costs per year per beneficiary would decrease by 61% or $500 on average. Compared with non-White subgroups, the White population subgroups would have a higher proportion of SSM enrollees (29.6% vs. 43.7%) and a higher annual OOP cost reduction (reduction of $424 vs. $531). Among the SSM enrollees, one-third (605,125) were predicted to have improved insulin adherence due to lower cost sharing and improved health outcomes. In 5 years, the SSM would 1) avert 2,014 strokes, 935 heart attacks, 315 heart failure cases, and 344 end-stage renal disease cases; 2) gain 3,220 life-years and 3,381 quality-adjusted life-years (QALY); and 3) increase insulin cost and total medical cost by $3.5 billion and $2.8 billion. In 20 years, the number of avoided clinical outcomes, number of life-years and QALY gained, and the total and insulin cost would be larger. CONCLUSIONS The Medicare SSM may reduce the OOP costs for approximately one-third of the Medicare beneficiaries treated with insulin, improving health outcomes via increased insulin adherence. However, the SSM will also increase overall Medicare spending for insulin and overall medical costs, which may impact future premiums and benefits. Our findings can inform policy makers about the potential impact of the new Medicare SSM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Shao
- Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety, Department of Pharmaceutical Evaluation and Policy, University of Florida College of Pharmacy, Gainesville, FL
| | - Dawei Guan
- Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety, Department of Pharmaceutical Evaluation and Policy, University of Florida College of Pharmacy, Gainesville, FL
| | - Jingchuan Guo
- Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety, Department of Pharmaceutical Evaluation and Policy, University of Florida College of Pharmacy, Gainesville, FL
| | - Tianze Jiao
- Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety, Department of Pharmaceutical Evaluation and Policy, University of Florida College of Pharmacy, Gainesville, FL
| | - Yongkang Zhang
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY
| | - Jing Luo
- Division of General Internal Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - Lizheng Shi
- Department of Global Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA
| | - Vivian Fonseca
- Department of Medicine and Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA
| | - Joshua D Brown
- Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety, Department of Pharmaceutical Evaluation and Policy, University of Florida College of Pharmacy, Gainesville, FL
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Emamipour S, Pagano E, Di Cuonzo D, Konings SRA, van der Heijden AA, Elders P, Beulens JWJ, Leal J, Feenstra TL. The transferability and validity of a population-level simulation model for the economic evaluation of interventions in diabetes: the MICADO model. Acta Diabetol 2022; 59:949-957. [PMID: 35445871 PMCID: PMC9156453 DOI: 10.1007/s00592-022-01891-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022]
Abstract
AIMS Valid health economic models are essential to inform the adoption and reimbursement of therapies for diabetes mellitus. Often existing health economic models are applied in other countries and settings than those where they were developed. This practice requires assessing the transferability of a model developed from one setting to another. We evaluate the transferability of the MICADO model, developed for the Dutch 2007 setting, in two different settings using a range of adjustment steps. MICADO predicts micro- and macrovascular events at the population level. METHODS MICADO simulation results were compared to observed events in an Italian 2000-2015 cohort (Casale Monferrato Survey [CMS]) and in a Dutch 2008-2019 (Hoorn Diabetes Care Center [DCS]) cohort after adjusting the demographic characteristics. Additional adjustments were performed to: (1) risk factors prevalence at baseline, (2) prevalence of complications, and (3) all-cause mortality risks by age and sex. Model validity was assessed by mean average percentage error (MAPE) of cumulative incidences over 10 years of follow-up, where lower values mean better accuracy. RESULTS For mortality, MAPE was lower for CMS compared to DCS (0.38 vs. 0.70 following demographic adjustment) and adjustment step 3 improved it to 0.20 in CMS, whereas step 2 showed best results in DCS (0.65). MAPE for heart failure and stroke in DCS were 0.11 and 0.22, respectively, while for CMS was 0.42 and 0.41. CONCLUSIONS The transferability of the MICADO model varied by event and per cohort. Additional adjustments improved prediction of events for MICADO. To ensure a valid model in a new setting it is imperative to assess the impact of adjustments in terms of model accuracy, even when this involves the same country, but a new time period.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sajad Emamipour
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmacology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
| | - Eva Pagano
- Unit of Clinical Epidemiology, "Città della Salute e della Scienza" Hospital and CPO Piemonte, Turin, Italy
| | - Daniela Di Cuonzo
- Unit of Clinical Epidemiology, "Città della Salute e della Scienza" Hospital and CPO Piemonte, Turin, Italy
| | - Stefan R A Konings
- Department of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion Regulation (ICPE), University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Amber A van der Heijden
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC, Location VUMC, Amsterdam Public Health Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Location VUMC, Amsterdam Public Health Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Petra Elders
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC, Location VUMC, Amsterdam Public Health Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Joline W J Beulens
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Location VUMC, Amsterdam Public Health Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jose Leal
- Nuffield Department of Population Health, Health Economics Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Talitha L Feenstra
- Faculty of Science and Engineering, Groningen Research Institute of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
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Kianmehr H, Zhang P, Luo J, Guo J, Pavkov ME, Bullard KM, Gregg EW, Ospina NS, Fonseca V, Shi L, Shao H. Potential Gains in Life Expectancy Associated With Achieving Treatment Goals in US Adults With Type 2 Diabetes. JAMA Netw Open 2022; 5:e227705. [PMID: 35435970 PMCID: PMC10292109 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.7705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Importance Improvements in control of factors associated with diabetes risk in the US have stalled and remain suboptimal. The benefit of continually improving goal achievement has not been evaluated to date. Objective To quantify potential gains in life expectancy (LE) among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) associated with lowering glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and body mass index (BMI) toward optimal levels. Design, Setting, and Participants In this decision analytical model, the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) diabetes microsimulation model was calibrated to a nationally representative sample of adults with T2D from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2015-2016) using their linked short-term mortality data from the National Death Index. The model was then used to conduct the simulation experiment on the study population over a lifetime. Data were analyzed from January to October 2021. Exposure The study population was grouped into quartiles on the basis of levels of HbA1c, SBP, LDL-C, and BMI. LE gains associated with achieving better control were estimated by moving people with T2D from the current quartile of each biomarker to the lower quartiles. Main Outcomes and Measures Life expectancy. Results Among 421 individuals, 194 (46%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 65.6 (8.9) years. Compared with a BMI of 41.4 (mean of the fourth quartile), lower BMIs of 24.3 (first), 28.6 (second), and 33.0 (third) were associated with 3.9, 2.9, and 2.0 additional life-years, respectively, in people with T2D. Compared with an SBP of 160.4 mm Hg (fourth), lower SBP levels of 114.1 mm Hg (first), 128.2 mm Hg (second), and 139.1 mm Hg (third) were associated with 1.9, 1.5, and 1.1 years gained in LE in people with T2D, respectively. A lower LDL-C level of 59 mg/dL (first), 84.0 mg/dL (second), and 107.0 mg/dL (third) were associated with 0.9, 0.7, and 0.5 years gain in LE, compared with LDL-C of 146.2 mg/dL (fourth). Reducing HbA1c from 9.9% (fourth) to 7.7% (third) was associated with 3.4 years gain in LE. However, a further reduction to 6.8% (second) was associated with only a mean of 0.5 years gain in LE, and from 6.8% to 5.9% (first) was not associated with LE benefit. Overall, reducing HbA1c from the fourth quartile to the first is associated with an LE gain of 3.8 years. Conclusions and Relevance These findings can be used by clinicians to motivate patients in achieving the recommended treatment goals and to help prioritize interventions and programs to improve diabetes care in the US.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamed Kianmehr
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Ping Zhang
- Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Jing Luo
- Division of General Internal Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Jingchuan Guo
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety (CoDES), University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Meda E Pavkov
- Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Kai McKeever Bullard
- Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Edward W. Gregg
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Naykky Singh Ospina
- Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism, University of Florida College of Medicine, FL, USA
| | - Vivian Fonseca
- Department of Medicine and Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Lizheng Shi
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Hui Shao
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety (CoDES), University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
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Shao H, Kianmehr H, Guo J, Li P, Fonseca V, Shi L. Efficacy of iGlarLixi on 5-year risk of diabetes-related complications: A simulation study. J Diabetes Complications 2022; 36:108132. [PMID: 35101326 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2022.108132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2021] [Revised: 01/10/2022] [Accepted: 01/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study simulated the 5-year risk of diabetes complications associated with the use of iGlarLixi, a fixed-ratio combination of insulin glargine 100 U/ml and lixisenatide, in type 2 diabetes (T2D) using the BRAVO diabetes model. METHODS The six-month efficacy data of iGlarLixi and Standard of Care (SOC) were extracted from the LixiLan-O (NCT02058147) and ORIGIN (NCT00069784) trials, respectively. The trial participants' baseline characteristics were standardized to the ACCORD trial through a matching method. The BRAVO diabetes simulation model was used to project the 5-year complications based on T2D people baseline characteristics and treatment efficacy. An optimistic scenario where the six-month relative efficacy of iGlarLixi (i.e., iGlarlixi-SOC) lasted for 5 years, and a conservative scenario where the relative effect of iGlarLixi waned to none within 5 years were simulated. RESULTS iGlarLixi compared with SOC was found to reduce HbA1c (-1.4%), SBP (-3.4 mm Hg), and BMI (-0.6 kg/m2) in six months. We simulated a 5-year risk reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (relative risk [RR] 0.77, 95% CI: 0.67-0.88), and all-cause mortality (RR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.92-0.96) under an optimistic scenario, and MACE (RR 0.86, 95% CI: 0.75-0.96), and all-cause mortality (RR 0.96, 95% CI: 0.92-0.98) under a conservative scenario. CONCLUSIONS The long-term use of iGlarLixi may lead to a substantial reduction in diabetes-related complications among people with T2D at elevated risk for CVD. The use of a simulation model to evaluate outcomes of treatment in a well-characterized patient cohort is novel. Such an approach may serve as a template for future evaluation of medications and combinations when the effect of a treatment is known, but a long-term outcome trial is not feasible.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Shao
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA; Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety (CoDES), University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Hamed Kianmehr
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Jingchuan Guo
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA; Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety (CoDES), University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Piaopiao Li
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Vivian Fonseca
- Department of Medicine and Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Lizheng Shi
- Department of Global Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA.
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Shao H, Fonseca V, Furman R, Meneghini L, Shi L. Impact of Quality Improvement (QI) Program on 5-Year Risk of Diabetes-Related Complications: A Simulation Study. Diabetes Care 2020; 43:2847-2852. [PMID: 32887705 PMCID: PMC9162144 DOI: 10.2337/dc20-0465] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2020] [Accepted: 08/16/2020] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We successfully implemented the American Diabetes Association's (ADA) Diabetes INSIDE (INspiring System Improvement with Data-Driven Excellence) quality improvement (QI) program at a university hospital and safety-net health system (Tulane and Parkland), focused on system-wide improvement in poorly controlled type 2 diabetes (HbA1c >8.0% [64 mmol/mol]). In this study, we estimated the 5-year risk reduction in complications and mortality associated with the QI program. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The QI implementation period was 1 year, followed by the postintervention period of 6 months to evaluate the impact of QI on clinical measures. We measured the differences between the baseline and postintervention clinical outcomes in 2,429 individuals with HbA1c >8% (64 mmol/mol) at baseline and used the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) diabetes model to project the 5-year risk reduction of diabetes-related complications under the assumption that intervention benefits persist over time. An alternative assumption that intervention benefits diminish by 30% every year was also tested. RESULTS The QI program was associated with reductions in HbA1c (-0.84%) and LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) (-5.94 mg/dL) among individuals with HbA1c level >8.0% (64 mmol/mol), with greater reduction in HbA1c (-1.67%) and LDL-C (-6.81 mg/dL) among those with HbA1c level >9.5% at baseline (all P < 0.05). The implementation of the Diabetes INSIDE QI program was associated with 5-year risk reductions in major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (relative risk [RR] 0.78 [95% CI 0.75-0.81]) and all-cause mortality (RR 0.83 [95% CI 0.82-0.85]) among individuals with baseline HbA1c level >8.0% (64 mmol/mol), and MACE (RR 0.60 [95% CI 0.56-0.65]) and all-cause mortality (RR 0.61 [95% CI 0.59-0.64]) among individuals with baseline HbA1c level >9.5% (80 mmol/mol). Sensitivity analysis also identified a substantially lower risk of diabetes-related complications and mortality associated with the QI program. CONCLUSIONS Our modeling results suggest that the ADA's Diabetes INSIDE QI program would benefit the patients and population by substantially reducing the 5-year risk of complications and mortality in individuals with diabetes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Shao
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
| | - Vivian Fonseca
- Department of Medicine and Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA
| | - Roy Furman
- Quality Improvement Services, American Diabetes Association, Bala Cynwyd, PA
| | - Luigi Meneghini
- The University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center and Parkland Health & Hospital System, Dallas, TX
| | - Lizheng Shi
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA
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Zawadzki NK, Hay JW. Characterizing the Validity and Real-World Utility of Health Technology Assessments in Healthcare: Future Directions Comment on "Problems and Promises of Health Technologies: The Role of Early Health Economic Modelling". Int J Health Policy Manag 2020; 9:352-355. [PMID: 32613807 PMCID: PMC7500389 DOI: 10.15171/ijhpm.2019.132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2019] [Accepted: 11/30/2019] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
With their article, Grutters et al raise an important question: What do successful health technology assessments (HTAs) look like, and what is their real-world utility in decision-making? While many HTAs are published in peer-reviewed journals, many are considered proprietary and their attributes remain confidential, limiting researchers’ ability to answer these questions. Models for economic evaluations like cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) synthesize a wide range of evidence, are often statistically and mathematically sophisticated, and require untestable assumptions. As such, there is nearly universal agreement among researchers that enhancing transparency is an important issue in health economic modeling. However, the definition of transparency and guidelines for its implementation vary. Model registration combined with a linked database of model-based economic evaluations has been proposed as a solution, whereby registered models and their accompanying technical and nontechnical documentation are sourced into a single publicly-available repository, ideally in a standardized format to ensure consistent and complete representation of features, code, data sources, results, validation exercises, and policy recommendations. When such a repository is ultimately created, modelers will not have to reinvent the wheel for every new drug launched or new treatment pathway. These more open and transparent approaches will have substantial implications for model accuracy, reliability, and validity, improving trust and acceptance by healthcare decision-makers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nadine K Zawadzki
- Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, Department of Pharmaceutical and Health Economics, School of Pharmacy, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Joel W Hay
- USC Clinical Economics Research and Education Program (CEREP), Los Angeles, CA, USA.,Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, Department of Pharmaceutical and Health Economics, School of Pharmacy, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
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