The Balkan long-eared bat (Plecotus kolombatovici) occurs in Italy – first confirmed record and potential distribution

Establishing a protected area network in Xinlong with other effective area-based conservation measures

Protected areas (PAs) are pivotal to biodiversity conservation, yet their efficacy is compromised by insufficient funding and management. So-called other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) present a paradigm shift and address PA limitations. Such measures can expand conservation areas, enhance connectivity, and improve the existing system. To assess the conservation status of biodiversity in Tibetan cultural areas in China, we investigated the spatial distribution of wildlife vulnerable to human disturbance (large- and medium-sized mammals and terrestrial birds) in Xinlong, a traditional Tibetan cultural area. In particular, we compared a PA (Xionglongxi Nature Reserve) and OECMs targeting species conservation. We also investigated the relationship of wildlife with human temporal and spatial activities. The OECMs complemented areas not covered by PA, especially in rich understory biodiversity regions. More species in OECMs tolerated human presence than species in the PA. Existing biodiversity reserves failed to cover areas of high conservation value in Tibet and offered limited protection capacity. Expanding PAs and identifying OECMs improved Xinlong's system by covering most biodiversity hotspots. Building on the tradition of wildlife conservation in Tibet, harnessing OECMs may be an effective means of augmenting biodiversity conservation capacity. We recommend further evaluation of OECMs effectiveness and coverage in Tibetan area as a way to enhance the current PA system.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability and Natural Product Accumulation of the Medicinal Plant Sophora alopecuroides L. Based on the MaxEnt Model

Sophora alopecuroides L., a perennial herb in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China, has the ecological functions of windbreaking and sand fixation and high medicinal value. In recent years, global warming and human activities have led to changes in suitable habitats for S. alopecuroides, which may affect the accumulation of natural products. In this study, MaxEnt 3.4 and ArcGIS 10.4 software were used to predict the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for S. alopecuroides in China under climate change. Furthermore, the geographical distribution of S. alopecuroides as affected by human activities, the differences in the content of natural products of S. alopecuroides between different suitable habitats, and the correlation between natural products and environmental factors were analyzed. The results showed that suitable habitats for S. alopecuroides were projected to expand in the future, and the major environmental factors were temperature (Bio1), rainfall (Bio18), and soil pH (pH). When Bio1, Bio18, and pH were 8.4283 °C, 7.1968 mm, and 9.9331, respectively, the distribution probability (P) of S. alopecuroides was the highest. After adding a human activity factor, the accuracy of the model prediction results was improved, and the area of suitable habitats was greatly reduced, showing a fragmented pattern. Meanwhile, habitat suitability had a specific effect on the content of natural products in S. alopecuroides. Specifically, the content of natural products in S. alopecuroides in wild habitats was higher than that in artificial cultivation, and highly suitable habitats showed higher contents than those in non-highly suitable habitats. The contents of total alkaloids and total flavonoids were positively correlated with human activities and negatively correlated with land use types. Among them, total alkaloids were negatively correlated with aspect, and total flavonoids were positively correlated with aspect. In addition, it is suggested that Xinjiang should be the priority planting area for S. alopecuroides in China, and priority should be given to protection measures in the Alashan area. Overall, this study provides an important foundation for the determination of priority planting areas and resource protection for S. alopecuroides.

Modeling the Potential Distribution Patterns of the Invasive Plant Species Phytolacca americana in China in Response to Climate Change

Phytolacca americana, introduced to China in the 20th century for its medicinal properties, has posed a significant ecological and agricultural challenge. Its prolific fruit production, high reproductive coefficient, adaptability, and toxic roots and fruits have led to the formation of monoculture communities, reducing native species diversity and posing threats to agriculture, human and animal health, and local ecosystems. Understanding its potential distribution patterns at a regional scale and its response to climate change is essential for effective monitoring, management, and control. In this study, we utilized the Maxent model to simulate potential habitat areas of P. americana across three timeframes (current, 2050s, and 2070s) under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Leveraging data from 556 P. americana sites across China, we employed ROC curves to assess the prediction accuracy. Our findings highlight key environmental factors influencing P. americana's geographical distribution, including the driest month's precipitation, the coldest month's minimum temperature, the wettest month's precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range. Under current climate conditions, P. americana potentially inhabits 280.26 × 104 km2 in China, with a concentration in 27 provinces and cities within the Yangtze River basin and its southern regions. While future climate change scenarios do not drastically alter the total suitable area, the proportions of high and low-suitability areas decrease over time, shifting towards moderate suitability. Specifically, in the SSP126 scenario, the centroid of the predicted suitable area shifts northeastward and then southwestward. In contrast, in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the centroid shifts northward.

Bats at an Altitude above 2000 m on Pirin Mountain, Bulgaria

The study describes a pilot survey on bats in the highest areas of Pirin Mountain. The methods included examining subfossil bone remains, mist-netting, and recording echolocation calls. The study was conducted in August 2002 and 2013 and from 2019 to 2020. While in general, bat diversity tends to decrease with increasing altitude due to harsher environmental conditions, the present study, despite a short period, reveals high diversity. Twenty species, more than half of the Bulgarian bat fauna, were detected. The recording and analysis of vocal signatures proved to be the best way to inventory bat diversity. At least 13 species were detected by this method. Vespertilio murinus and Tadarida teniotis together make up more than 60% of all reliably determined echolocation sequences. Significant activity was found for Myotis myotis/blythii, Plecotus auritus, Eptesicus serotinus, and E. nilssonii. The registration of the latter species is of considerable faunistic interest. It was previously only known from a single specimen at one location in the country. The sex and age structure of the bat assemblage suggests that it is likely a swarming assemblage. The area is the highest swarming location in Europe. The results provide valuable information on bat ecology and behaviour, which can be used to inform management and protection efforts.

Distribution of sika deer (Cervus nippon) and the bioclimatic impact on their habitats in South Korea

Invasive species and climate change are primary factors influencing biodiversity, and examining the behavior of invasive species is essential for effective conservation management. Here, we report the global distribution of the sika deer (Cervus nippon) based on locations reported in published literature (Google Scholar), the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature report. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model to examine the impact of climate change on sika deer habitats in South Korea based on GBIF occurrence data and WorldClim bioclimatic variables. Habitat suitability analysis was performed using the Maxent model under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (for predicted climatic conditions in both 2050 and 2070) to project the effects of different climate change scenarios on South Korean sika deer habitats. We identified that the sika deer is distributed in 39 countries worldwide. Due to climate change effects, South Korean sika deer habitats will decline by approximately 24.98% and 20.63% (under RCP 4.5) and by 50.51% and 57.35% (under RCP 8.5) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Our findings shed light on sika deer ecology and provide reference data for future conservation management strategies and policy design.

The Minimal Impact of Anthropogenic Disturbances on the Spatial Activities of Leopard Cats in Xinlong, China

The habitat plays a crucial role in ensuring the survival of wildlife. However, the increasing disturbances caused by human activities present a substantial threat to habitats, especially for species such as the leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis), which is a significant small predator. Currently, research on leopard cats predominantly focuses on low-altitude regions within its distribution range, leaving plateau areas understudied. To enhance our understanding of the impact of human disturbances on leopard cat habitats, we undertook a study employing infrared camera trappings to monitor leopard cats' activity in Xinlong of southwestern China between 2015 and 2023. We analyzed the spatial distribution and habitat suitability of the leopard cats by utilizing ensemble species distribution models (ESDMs). Moreover, we employed two-species occupancy models to investigate the spatial interaction between leopard cats and human disturbances. The results indicated that (1) the potential suitable habitat area for leopard cats encompassed approximately 1324.93 km2 (14.3%), primarily located along the banks of Yalong river. (2) The distribution of suitable habitat was predominantly influenced by competitors, specifically the yellow-throated marten (YTM), accounting for 52.4% of the influence, as well as environmental factors such as distance to water (DTW) at 12.0% and terrain roughness index (TRI) at 10.0%. Human interference, including cattle presence (4.6%), distance to road (DTD, 4.9%), and distance to settlement (DTS, 3.5%), had a limited impact on the habitat distribution. (3) Within a 5 km radius, habitat suitability increased with proximity to human settlements. (4) Leopard cats exhibited spatial independence from humans and domestic cattle (species interaction factor (SIF) = 1.00) while avoiding domestic horses (SIF = 0.76 ± 0.03). The relatively minor impact of human disturbances in Xinlong could be attributed to traditional cultural practices safeguarding wildlife and the leopard cat's environmental adaptability. We recommend establishing a novel conservation paradigm based on the living dynamics of wildlife communities in Xinlong, thereby offering a more targeted approach to biodiversity preservation in the future.

Impacts of physiological characteristics and human activities on the species distribution models of orchids taking the Hengduan Mountains as a case

The biogeography research of orchids through species distribution models (SDMs), a vital tool in the biogeography field, is critical to understanding the fundamental geographic distribution patterns and identifying conservation priorities. The correspondence between species occurrence and environmental information is crucial to the model's performance. However, ecological preferences unique to different orchid species, such as their life forms, are often overlooked during the modeling process. This oversight can introduce bias and increase model uncertainty. Additionally, human activities, as an important potential predictor, have not been quantified in any orchid SDMs. Taking the Hengduan Mountains as an example, we preprocessed all orchid species' occurrences based on physiological characteristics. Choosing five spatial factors related to human activities to quantify the interference and enter into models as HI factor. Using different modeling methods (GLM, MaxEnt, and RF) and evaluation indices (AUC, TSS, and Kappa), diverse modeling strategies have been constructed in the study. A double-ranking method has been adopted to select the critical orchid distribution regions. The results showed that classification models based on physiological characteristics significantly improved the model's accuracy while adding the HI factor had the same effect but the absence of enough significance. Suitability maps indicated that highly heterogeneous mountainous areas were vital for the distribution of orchids in the Hengduan Mountains. Different distribution patterns and critical regions existed between various orchid life forms geographically - terrestrial orchids were dominant in the mountain, and mycoherterophical orchids were primarily located in the north, more influenced by vegetation and temperature. Critical regions of epiphytic orchids were in the south due to a greater dependence on precipitation and temperature. These studies are informative for understanding the orchids' geographic distribution patterns in the Hengduan Mountains, promoting conservation and providing references for similar research beyond orchids.

Impact of climate change on the distribution and predicted habitat suitability of two fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus) in Ethiopia: Implications for conservation

Fruit bats serve as crucial bioindicators, seed dispersers, pollinators, and contributors to food security within ecosystems. However, their population and distribution were threatened by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Understanding the impacts of these pressures through mapping distribution and habitat suitability is crucial for identifying high-priority areas and implementing effective conservation and management plans. We predicted the distribution and extent of habitat suitability for Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus under climate change scenarios using average predictions from four different algorithms to produce an ensemble model. Seasonal precipitation, population index, land-use land cover, vegetation, and the mean temperature of the driest quarter majorly contributed to the predicted habitat suitability for both species. The current predicted sizes of suitable habitats for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus were varied, on average 60,271.4 and 85,176.1 km2, respectively. The change in species range size for R. aegyptiacus showed gains in suitable areas of 24.4% and 22.8% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, for E. labiatus, suitable areas decreased by 0.95% and 2% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. The range size change of suitable areas between 2050 and 2070 for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus shows losses of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The predicted maps indicate that the midlands and highlands of southern and eastern Ethiopia harbor highly suitable areas for both species. In contrast, the areas in the northern and central highlands are fragmented. The current model findings show that climate change and anthropogenic pressures have notable impacts on the geographic ranges of two species. Moreover, the predicted suitable habitats for both species are found both within and outside of their historical ranges, which has important implications for conservation efforts. Our ensemble predictions are vital for identifying high-priority areas for fruit bat species conservation efforts and management to mitigate climate change and anthropogenic pressures.

Environmental factors induced crop raiding by wild Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) in the Eastern Economic Corridor, Thailand

Crop raiding are an increasing concern in wildlife conservation. This study identified the environmental factors that cause wild Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) to enter sub-urban and rural areas and share resources with humans in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) in the eastern part of Thailand. The snowball method was used to interview villagers that had crop raiding experienced in seven provinces of the EEC and adjacent provinces in the eastern part of Thailand in 2020, and data from 183 households indicated that crop raiding had increased continuously from 2000 to 2020, especially in Chonburi, Chachoengsao, and Prachinburi provinces, which have seen increases in damaged agricultural areas. MaxEnt analysis showed an increase in incidents of crop raiding, while the elephants distribution area decreased from 9534 km2 in 2000 to 5199 km2 in 2010 and 4850 km2 in 2020. The study area has had land use changes in the low elevations from croplands of cassava and sugar cane to eucalyptus, para rubber, and fruits. These mixed crop plantations provide a pseudo-habitat for wild Asian elephants. The results from this study provide evidence that changes in land use and reduction of suitable habitat are factors that influenced the movement of wild Asian elephants to the rural agricultural areas and increased the incidents of crop raiding.

Prediction of the potentially suitable areas of Ligularia virgaurea and Ligularia sagitta on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on future climate change using the MaxEnt model

Ligularia virgaurea and Ligularia sagitta are two species of poisonous plants with strong invasiveness in natural grasslands in China that have caused considerable harm to animal husbandry and the ecological environment. However, little is known about their suitable habitats and the key environmental factors affecting their distribution. Although some studies have reported the distributions of poisonous plants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and predicted their potential distributions at local scales in some regions under climate change, there have been few studies on the widespread distributions of L. virgaurea and L. sagitta. In this study, we recorded 276 and 118 occurrence points of L. virgaurea and L. sagitta on the QTP using GPS, and then used the MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of suitable habitats. Results showed that (1) under current climate conditions, L. virgaurea and L. sagitta are mainly distributed in southern Gansu, eastern Qinghai, northwestern Sichuan, eastern Tibet, and southwestern Yunnan, accounting for approximately 34.9% and 39.8% of the total area of the QTP, respectively; (2) the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for L. virgaurea and L. sagitta are the Human Footprint Index (52.8%, 42.2%), elevation (11%, 4.4%), soil total nitrogen (18.9%, 4.2%), and precipitation seasonality (5.1%, 7.3%); and (3) in the future, in the 2050s and 2070s, the area of habitat of intermediate suitability for L. virgaurea will spread considerably in northwest Sichuan, while that of high suitability for L. sagitta will spread to eastern Tibet and western Sichuan.

Modeling impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution and abundances of Tamarindus indica in Tigray region, Ethiopia

Tamarindus indica is a multipurpose dry land species in sub-Saharan that is traditionally used to build resilience into the farming system. The species is highly threatened and listed on the IUCN Red List. However, information on how climatic condition locally influences its ecological distribution is limited. This study investigates the current and future suitable habitat for the species in the Tigray region, in northern Ethiopia. A total of 220 species presence points and the number of T. indica within a 50 m × 50 m plot were collected. In addition, 19 bioclimatic variables, 3 topographic variables and soil data were used to model the impact of future climate conditions under two Representative Concentration Path Ways (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5). MaxEnt-v-3.3.3 k, Diva-GIS-7.5, and GIS10.6 were used to model the current and future distribution. SPSSv-26 was also utilized to analyze the relationship between the species' abundance and environmental variables. Results showed that the environmental variables determining most for the distribution of T. indica were mean diurnal range (Bio2 (56.9%)); temperature seasonality (Bio4 (10.3%)) and temperature annual range (Bio7 (9.2%)). The model suggested that the current distribution of T. indica covers an area of 9209 km² (14.04%). This would have increased to 29,363 km² (44.78%) and 11,046 km² (16.85%) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Compared to the high-impact areas, new gains of suitable areas (net 25,081 km²) for the future distribution of the species were predicted in 2070-RCP4.5. Altitude, rainfall, temperature, silt contents of soils and soil pH have significant contributions (P-value<0.05) to the abundance of T. indica. However, altitude has a negative relationship with the abundance of T. indica. Additional studies to understand population trends and other threats are recommended.

Assessing potential European areas of Pierce's disease mediated by insect vectors by using spatial ensemble model

Pierce's disease (PD) is a serious threat to grape production in Europe. This disease is caused by Xylella fastidiosa and is mediated by insect vectors, suggesting its high potential for spread and necessity for early monitoring. In this study, hence, potential distribution of Pierce's disease varied with climate change and was spatially evaluated in Europe using ensemble species distribution modeling. Two models of X. fastidiosa and three major insect vectors (Philaenus spumarius, Neophilaenus campestris, and Cicadella viridis) were developed using CLIMEX and MaxEnt. The consensus areas of the disease and insect vectors, along with host distribution, were evaluated using ensemble mapping to identify high-risk areas for the disease. Our predictions showed that the Mediterranean region would be the most vulnerable to Pierce's disease, and the high-risk area would increase three-fold due to climate change under the influence of N. campestris distribution. This study demonstrated a methodology for species distribution modeling specific to diseases and vectors while providing results that could be used for monitoring Pierce's disease by simultaneously considering the disease agent, vectors, and host distribution.

Shedding light on the effects of climate and anthropogenic pressures on the disappearance of Fagus sylvatica in the Italian lowlands: evidence from archaeo-anthracology and spatial analyses

Fagus sylvatica is one of the most representative trees of the European deciduous broadleaved forests, yet the impact of changing climatic conditions and anthropogenic pressures (anthromes) on its presence and distribution in the coastal and lowland areas of the Mediterranean Basin has long been overlooked. Here, we first analysed the local forest composition in two different time intervals (350-300 Before Current Era, BCE and 150-100 BCE) using charred wood remains from the Etruscan site of Cetamura (Tuscany, central Italy). Additionally, we reviewed all the relevant publications and the wood/charcoal data obtained from anthracological analysis in F. sylvatica, focusing on samples that date back to 4000 years before present, to better understand the drivers of beech presence and distribution during the Late Holocene (LH) in the Italian Peninsula. Then, we combined charcoal and spatial analyses to test the distribution of beech woodland at low elevation during LH in Italy and to evaluate the effect of climate change and/or anthrome on the disappearance of F. sylvatica from the lowlands. We collected 1383 charcoal fragments in Cetamura belonging to 21 woody taxa, with F. sylvatica being the most abundant species (28 %), followed by other broadleaved trees. We identified 25 sites in the Italian Peninsula with beech charcoals in the last 4000 years. Our spatial analyses showed a marked decrease in habitat suitability of F. sylvatica from LH to the present (ca. 48 %), particularly in the lowlands (0-300 m above sea level, a.s.l.) and in areas included between 300-600 m a.s.l. with a subsequent shift upwards of the beech woodland of ca. 200 m from the past to the present. In the lowland areas, where F. sylvatica has disappeared, anthrome alone and climate + anthorme had a main effect on beech distribution whitin 0-50 m a.s.l., while the climate from 50 to 300 m a.s.l. Furthermore, climate affect also the beech distrinution in the areas >300 m a.s.l., while climate + anthrome and antrhome alone were mainly focused on the lowland areas. Our results highlight the advantage of combining different approaches, such as charcoal analysis and spatial analyses, to explore biogeographic questions about the past and current distribution of F. sylvatica, with important implications for today's forest management and conservation policies.

Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered endemic annonaceae species in east africa

Globally, endemic species and natural habitats have been significantly impacted by climate change, and further considerable impacts are predicted. Therefore, understanding how endemic species are impacted by climate change can aid in advancing the necessary conservation initiatives. The use of niche modeling is becoming a popular topic in biological conservation to forecast changes in species distributions under various climate change scenarios. This study used the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1 (ACCESS-CM2) general circulation model of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for the four threatened Annonaceae species endemic to East Africa (EA), to determine the impact of climate change on their suitable habitat in the years 2050 (average for 2041-2060) and 2070 (average for 2061-2080). Two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) SSP370 and SSP585 were used to project the contraction and expansion of suitable habitats for Uvariodendron kirkii, Uvaria kirkii, Uvariodendron dzomboense and Asteranthe asterias endemic to Kenya and Tanzania in EA. The current distribution for all four species is highly influenced by precipitation, temperature, and environmental factors (population, potential evapotranspiration, and aridity index). Although the loss of the original suitable habitat is anticipated to be significant, appropriate habitat expansion and contraction are projections for all species. More than 70% and 40% of the original habitats of Uvariodendron dzombense and Uvariodendron kirkii are predicted to be destroyed by climate change, respectively. Based on our research, we suggest that areas that are expected to shrink owing to climate change be classified as important protection zones for the preservation of Annonaceae species.

Biodiversity protection against anthropogenic climate change: Conservation prioritization of Castanea sativa in the South Caucasus based on genetic and ecological metrics

The climate drives species distribution and genetic diversity; the latter defines the adaptability of populations and species. The ongoing climate crisis induces tree decline in many regions, compromising the mitigation potential of forests. Scientific-based strategies for prioritizing forest tree populations are critical to managing the impact of climate change. Identifying future climate refugia, which are locations naturally buffering the negative impact of climate change, may facilitate local conservation. In this work, we conducted the populations' prioritization for Castanea sativa (sweet chestnut), a Neogene relict growing in the Caucasus global biodiversity hotspot. We generated genetic and ecological metrics for 21 sites in Georgia and Azerbaijan, which cover the natural range of sweet chestnut across the region. We demonstrated that climate primarily drives the pattern of genetic diversity in C. sativa, proved with a significant isolation-by-environment model. In future, climate change may significantly reorganize the species' genetic diversity, inducing even some genetic loss, especially in the very distinct eastern fringe of the species range in Azerbaijan. Based on our combined approach, we mapped populations suitable for ex situ and in situ conservation, accounting for genetic variability and the location of future climate refugia.

Global habitat suitability modeling reveals insufficient habitat protection for mangrove crabs

Mangrove crabs are important components of mangrove forests however their large scale habitat suitability and conservation received little attention. The Metopograpsus thukuhar/cannicci species complex is a mangrove dwelling species occurs in the Indo-Pacific mangrove forests. Since identifying the complex suitable habitat is critical for its conservation, we modeled global habitat suitability of the complex within marine biogeographic realms and estimated representation of the complex suitable habitats within marine protected areas. We found that the complex' largest and smallest suitable ranges are located in Central Indo-Pacific and Temperate Southern Africa realms, respectively. Only 12.5% of the complex suitable habitat is protected. The highest proportion of the complex' protected suitable habitat (22.9%) is located in Western Indo-Pacific realm while the lowest proportion of the complex' protected suitable habitat (1.38%) is located in Central Indo-Pacific realm. Suitable unprotected habitats of the complex identified in this study have high priority for conservation and should be included in marine protected areas to ensure species conservation. Our results show that species distribution models are practical tools to study marine species distribution across large spatial scales and help marine conservation planning.

Living on the sea-coast: ranging and habitat distribution of Asiatic lions

Endangered Asiatic lions (Panthera leo persica) are renowned for their resilience and as a flagship of successful conservation and management. Lions dispersing out of the Gir forest have established themselves in the coastal habitats for about 25 years. We propose that the home range and spatial distribution of lions inhabiting the coastal habitats would be distinct from the forested habitats of the protected area. Each individual was monitored for an average of 367.2 ± 99.05 days from 2019 to 2021. The mean core area was 33.8 km² (50% FK, SE 8.7 km²) and the overall average range was 171.8 km² (90% FK, SE 40.5 km²). The home ranges were significantly larger for lions residing in the coastal area compared to lions in the protected area. The lion distribution model was built on MaxEnt, and inputs included location fixes of lions and variables, including 18 land use categories and Euclidean distance to linear infrastructures and human settlements. Lions were shown to use forest habitat patches extensively, followed by available habitats around water sources and wasteland. The study highlights the importance of corridors connecting to the Gir protected area and the importance of coastal forest patches for lion conservation and management.

The effect of climate change on Arcto-Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution

Fagus mexicana Martínez (Mexican beech) is an endangered Arcto‐Tertiary Geoflora tree species that inhabit isolated and fragmented tropical montane cloud forests in eastern Mexico. Exploring past, present, and future climate change effects on the distribution of Mexican beech involves the study of spatial ecology and temporal patterns to develop conservation plans. These are key to understanding the niche conservatism of other forest communities with similar environmental requirements. For this study, we used species distribution models by combining occurrence records, to assess the distribution patterns and changes of the past (Last Glacial Maximum), present (1981–2010), and future (2040–2070) periods under two climate scenarios (SSP 3‐7.0 & SSP 5‐8.5). Next, we determined the habitat suitability and priority conservation areas of Mexican beech as associated with topography, land cover use, distance to the nearest town, and environmental variables. By considering the distribution of Mexican beech during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study estimated that high‐impact areas of Mexican beech forests were restricted to specific areas of the Sierra Madre Oriental that constitute refugia from the Last Glacial Maximum. Regrettably, our results exhibited that Mexican beech distribution has decreased 71.3% since the Last Glacial Maximum and this trend will for the next 50 years, migrating to specific refugia at higher altitudes. This suggests that the states of Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Puebla will preserve the habitat suitability features as ecological refugia, related to high moisture and north‐facing slopes. For isolated and difficult‐to‐access areas, the proposed methods are powerful tools for relict‐tree species, which deserve further conservation.

Modelling Potential Distribution of Snow Leopards in Pamir, Northern Pakistan: Implications for Human–Snow Leopard Conflicts

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is a cryptic and rare big cat inhabiting Asia’s remote and harsh elevated areas. Its population has decreased across the globe for various reasons, including human–snow leopard conflicts (HSCs). Understanding the snow leopard’s distribution range and habitat interactions with human/livestock is essential for understanding the ecological context in which HSCs occur and thus gives insights into how to mitigate HSCs. In this study, a MaxEnt model predicted the snow leopard’s potential distribution and analyzed the land use/cover to determine the habitat interactions of snow leopards with human/livestock in Karakoram–Pamir, northern Pakistan. The results indicated an excellent model performance for predicting the species’ potential distribution. The variables with higher contributions to the model were the mean diurnal temperature range (51.7%), annual temperature range (18.5%), aspect (14.2%), and land cover (6.9%). The model predicted approximately 10% of the study area as a highly suitable habitat for snow leopards. Appropriate areas included those at an altitude ranging from 2721 to 4825 m, with a mean elevation of 3796.9 ± 432 m, overlapping between suitable snow leopard habitats and human presence. The human encroachment (human settlements and agriculture) in suitable snow leopard habitat increased by 115% between 2008 and 2018. Increasing encroachment and a clear overlap between snow leopard suitable habitat and human activities, signs of growing competition between wildlife and human/livestock for limited rangeland resources, may have contributed to increasing HSCs. A sound land use plan is needed to minimize overlaps between suitable snow leopard habitat and human presence to mitigate HSCs in the long run.

Artificial illumination influences niche segregation in bats

Artificial light at night (ALAN) is a pervasive form of pollution largely affecting wildlife, from individual behaviour to community structure and dynamics. As nocturnal mammals, bats are often adversely affected by ALAN, yet some "light-opportunistic" species exploit it by hunting insects swarming near lights. Here we used two potentially competing pipistrelle species as models, Kuhl's (Pipistrellus kuhlii) and common (Pipistrellus pipistrellus) pipistrelles, both known to forage in artificially illuminated areas. We set our study in a mountainous area of central Italy, where only recently did the two species become syntopic. We applied spatial modelling and radiotracking to contrast potential vs. actual environmental preferences by the two pipistrelles. Species distribution models and niche analysis showed a large interspecific niche overlap, including a preference for illuminated areas, presenting a potential competition scenario. Pipistrellus pipistrellus association with ALAN, however, was weakened by adding P. kuhlii as a biotic variable to the model. Radiotracking showed that the two species segregated habitats at a small spatial scale and that P. kuhlii used artificially illuminated sites much more frequently than P. pipistrellus, despite both species potentially being streetlamp foragers. We demonstrate that ALAN influences niche segregation between two potentially competing species, confirming its pervasive effects on species and community dynamics, and provide an example of how light pollution and species' habitat preferences may weave a tapestry of complex ecological interactions.

Effect of land use, habitat suitability, and hurricanes on the population connectivity of an endemic insular bat

Urbanization and natural disasters can disrupt landscape connectivity, effectively isolating populations and increasing the risk of local extirpation particularly in island systems. To understand how fragmentation affects corridors among forested areas, we used circuit theory to model the landscape connectivity of the endemic bat Stenoderma rufum within Puerto Rico. Our models combined species occurrences, land use, habitat suitability, and vegetation cover data that were used either as resistance (land use) or conductance layers (habitat suitability and vegetation cover). Urbanization affected connectivity overall from east to west and underscored protected and rustic areas for the maintenance of forest corridors. Suitable habitat provided a reliable measure of connectivity among potential movement corridors that connected more isolated areas. We found that intense hurricanes that disrupt forest integrity can affect connectivity of suitable habitat. Some of the largest protected areas in the east of Puerto Rico are at an increasing risk of becoming disconnected from more continuous forest patches. Given the increasing rate of urbanization, this pattern could also apply to other vertebrates. Our findings show the importance of maintaining forest integrity, emphasizing the considerable conservation value of rustic areas for the preservation of local biodiversity.

Bats Out of Africa: Disentangling the Systematic Position and Biogeography of Bats in Cabo Verde

Cabo Verde Archipelago presents one of the largest knowledge gaps in the distribution and taxonomy of bats in the world. Old works indicated that there are five species classified as European taxa. We have conducted an integrative taxonomy to revise the systematic position and distribution of Cabo Verdean bats with molecular, morphological, and ecological data, to test their native or exotic origin, and infer possible colonization patterns based on fieldwork and museum samples. Results showed that Cabo Verde Hypsugo is closely related to those from the Canary Islands, in which the taxonomic status is under debate, presenting unique mitochondrial and nuclear haplotypes. We also expanded the distribution of Taphozous nudiventris for Fogo Island through pellets and acoustic identification, showed unique haplotypes for this species, and that Miniopterus schreibersii shared a haplotype with European, North African, and Western Asian specimens. The morphological and acoustic identification of Cabo Verdean specimens was challenging because of the lack of modern morphological descriptions and similarity of echolocation calls within the same genus. More studies are definitely needed to access the systematic of bat species in the archipelago, but this work is the first step for the establishment of conservation actions of the probable only native Cabo Verdean mammals.

Coastal Pine-Oak Glacial Refugia in the Mediterranean Basin: A Biogeographic Approach Based on Charcoal Analysis and Spatial Modelling

During the glacial episodes of the Quaternary, European forests were restricted to small favourable spots, namely refugia, acting as biodiversity reservoirs. the Iberian, Italian and Balkan peninsulas have been considered as the main glacial refugia of trees in Europe. In this study, we estimate the composition of the last glacial forest in a coastal cave of the Cilento area (SW Italy) in seven time frames, spanning from the last Pleniglacial to the Late Glacial. Charcoal analyses were performed in seven archaeological layers. Furthermore, a paleoclimate modelling (Maxent) approach was used to complement the taxonomic identification of charcoal fragments to estimate the past potential distribution of tree species in Europe. Our results showed that the mesothermophilous forest survived in this region in the core of the Mediterranean basin during the Last Glacial Period (LGP, since ~36 ka cal BP), indicating that this area played an important role as a reservoir of woodland biodiversity. Here, Quercus pubescens was the most abundant component, followed by a wide variety of deciduous trees and Pinus nigra. Charcoal data also pointed at the crucial role of this coastal area, acting as a reservoir for warm temperate trees of genera Tilia, Carpinus and Sambucus, in LGP, in the Mediterranean region. Our modelling results showed that P. nigra might be the main candidate as a “Pinus sylvestris type” in the study site in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Furthermore, we found that P. nigra might coexist with Q. pubescens in several European territories both currently and in the LGM. All models showed high levels of predictive performances. Our results highlight the advantage of combining different approaches such as charcoal analysis and ecological niche models to explore biogeographic questions about past and current forest distribution, with important implications to inform today’s forest management and conservation.

An African bat in Europe, Plecotus gaisleri: Biogeographic and ecological insights from molecular taxonomy and Species Distribution Models

Because of the high risk of going unnoticed, cryptic species represent a major challenge to biodiversity assessments, and this is particularly true for taxa that include many such species, for example, bats. Long-eared bats from the genus Plecotus comprise numerous cryptic species occurring in the Mediterranean Region and present complex phylogenetic relationships and often unclear distributions, particularly at the edge of their known ranges and on islands. Here, we combine Species Distribution Models (SDMs), field surveys and molecular analyses to shed light on the presence of a cryptic long-eared bat species from North Africa, Plecotus gaisleri, on the islands of the Sicily Channel, providing strong evidence that this species also occurs in Europe, at least on the islands of the Western Mediterranean Sea that act as a crossroad between the Old Continent and Africa. Species Distribution Models built using African records of P. gaisleri and projected to the Sicily Channel Islands showed that all these islands are potentially suitable for the species. Molecular identification of Plecotus captured on Pantelleria, and recent data from Malta and Gozo, confirmed the species' presence on two of the islands in question. Besides confirming that P. gaisleri occurs on Pantelleria, haplotype network reconstructions highlighted moderate structuring between insular and continental populations of this species. Our results remark the role of Italy as a bat diversity hotspot in the Mediterranean and also highlight the need to include P. gaisleri in European faunal checklists and conservation directives, confirming the usefulness of combining different approaches to explore the presence of cryptic species outside their known ranges-a fundamental step to informing conservation.