A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs--a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Bioremediation for the recovery of oil polluted marine environment, opportunities and challenges approaching the Blue Growth

The Blue Growth strategy promises a sustainable use of marine resources for the benefit of the society. However, oil pollution in the marine environment is still a serious issue for human, animal, and environmental health; in addition, it deprives citizens of the potential economic and recreational advantages in the affected areas. Bioremediation, that is the use of bio-resources for the degradation of pollutants, is one of the focal themes on which the Blue Growth aims to. A repertoire of marine-derived bio-products, biomaterials, processes, and services useful for efficient, economic, low impact, treatments for the recovery of oil-polluted areas has been demonstrated in many years of research around the world. Nonetheless, although bioremediation technology is routinely applied in soil, this is not still standardized in the marine environment and the potential market is almost underexploited. This review provides a summary of opportunities for the exploiting and addition of value to research products already validated. Moreover, the review discusses challenges that limit bioremediation in marine environment and actions that can facilitate the conveying of valuable products/processes towards the market.

Bayesian inference modeling to rank response technologies in arctic marine oil spills

Marine oil spills have a detrimental effect on aquatic systems. Yet, it is challenging to select appropriate technologies in the Arctic because of limited logistics support, inclement weather conditions, and remoteness, and limited research has been conducted in this direction. This article suggests a method to rank the oil response technologies, including mechanical recovery, chemical dispersant, and in-situ burning, for use in Arctic oil spill risk assessment and preparedness planning. The proposed Preference Learning based Bayesian Inference Modeling offers data-driven ranking of systems by learning a label function and considers factors such as ice covered sea areas, cold weather, and spill volume. A data generation system is developed to produce numerous oil spill scenarios, using a state-of-the-art engineering tool. Results demonstrate that the model, while simple, can efficiently and accurately select the best available technique, making it suitable primarily for marine pollution preparedness and response planning in strategic risk assessments.

Electrospinning fabrication of magnetic nanoparticles-embedded polycaprolactone (PCL) sorbent with enhanced sorption capacity and recovery speed for spilled oil removal

The use of oil-soaked sorbents in the recovery and cleaning of oil spills presents challenges due to disposal. Recently, magnetic nanoparticle (MNP) based collection has been gaining interest as a new technique to lower the amount of labor required to treat oil spills. In this study, we devised a new method for the preparation of a magnetic nanoparticle (MNP) embedded polycaprolactone (PCL) sorbent with oleophilic and environmentally friendly features, capable of bring easily collected under a magnetic field. Compared with conventional polypropylene sorbents, the MNP embedded PCL sorbent (MNP/PCL) displayed excellent Arabian light (AL) crude oil sorption capacity (45.7 g g^-1) and decreased the absorption time of the oil-soaked sorbent due to its electrospun structure and efficient distribution of hydrophobic MNPs. Furthermore, the MNP/PCL based sorbent became fully pyrolyzed under certain temperatures and conditions. The MNP embedded PCL-based sorbent demonstrated broad applicability and utility in large scale oil spill projects.

Nano-fluoro dispersion functionalized superhydrophobic degummed & waste silk fabric for sustained recovery of petroleum oils & organic solvents from wastewater

Superwettable and chemically stable waste silk fabric and degummed silk were used in this study for treatment of oily wastewater and oil/solvent recovery. Silk functionalized with a nano-fluoro dispersion showed a superhydrophobic and oleophilic nature. The functionalized silk demonstrated superoleophilicity towards petroleum oils and organic solvents, and exhibited filtration efficiencies of more than 95%, and up to 70% till 25 re-usable cycles. Furthermore, the functionalized silk materials demonstrated high permeation flux of 584 L.m^-2.h^-1 (for Diesel) for continuous oil-water separation operation. The pH based study in highly acidic and alkaline mediums (pH from 1 to 13) showed excellent stability of nano-fluoro coated silk. Thermogravimetric analysis showed thermal stability up to 250 °C, and 400 °C, for functionalized waste silk, and degummed silk, respectively. FE-SEM analysis revealed randomly oriented spindle shaped nano particles anchored on the silk surface exhibiting hierarchical patterns, as required for the superhydrophobic Cassie-Baxter state. The rate absorption study showed close curve fitting for pseudo second order kinetics (R² = 0.999), which indicated physical absorption process. BET analysis confirmed the porous nature, while the elemental XPS and EDX analysis confirmed strong bonding and uniform coating of fluoro nanoparticles on silk surface. The results demonstrated that nano-fluoro dispersion functionalized silk can be successfully employed for effective oil/solvent-water filtration, oil/solvent-spill cleanups, and treatment of oily wastewater for protection of water resources.

Low-Cost Activated Carbon for Petroleum Products Clean-Up

Petroleum products are hazardous both for humans and nature. Diesel oil is one of the main contaminants of land but also of sea, during its transportation. Currently, there are many different clean-up techniques for petroleum products. One of the most common is adsorption by adsorbent materials. Although adsorption is an eco-friendly and cost-effective approach, it lacks efficiency. The present study investigates the performance of low-cost activated carbon, derived from potato peels and activated under different temperature conditions, from 350 °C to 800 °C. The yield of activated carbon decreases with the increase in the carbonization temperature. However, the sample prepared at 600 °C shows an oil sorption capacity of 72 g/g, which is the highest of all samples. Nitrogen adsorption characterization reveals that this specific sample has the highest specific surface (SSA) area of 1052 m2/g and total a pore volume of 2.959 cm3/g, corresponding to a 94% and 77% increase compared to the sample prepared at 350 °C. Oil sorption kinetics experiments show that, for all samples, the maximum uptake is reached after 1h. Oil uptake was also investigated under realistic conditions by introducing the best performance activated carbon to an oil/seawater system, and the outcome does not show a significant decrease in the oil sorption. The outcomes of this study indicate that low-cost adsorbents from agricultural by-products have strong potential as an oil spill response technique.

Advanced Switchable Molecules and Materials for Oil Recovery and Oily Waste Cleanup

Advanced switchable molecules and materials have shown great potential in numerous applications. These novel materials can express different states of physicochemical properties as controlled by a designated stimulus, such that the processing condition can always be maintained in an optimized manner for improved efficiency and sustainability throughout the whole process. Herein, the recent advances in switchable molecules/materials in oil recovery and oily waste cleanup are reviewed. Oil recovery and oily waste cleanup are of critical importance to the industry and environment. Switchable materials can be designed with various types of switchable properties, including i) switchable interfacial activity, ii) switchable viscosity, iii) switchable solvent, and iv) switchable wettability. The materials can then be deployed into the most suitable applications according to the process requirements. An in-depth discussion about the fundamental basis of the design considerations is provided for each type of switchable material, followed by details about their performances and challenges in the applications. Finally, an outlook for the development of next-generation switchable molecules/materials is discussed.

Next-Generation Smart Response Web (NG-SRW): An Operational Spatial Decision Support System for Maritime Oil Spill Emergency Response in the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea)

The Baltic Sea is a unique and sensitive brackish-water ecosystem vulnerable to damage from shipping activities. Despite high levels of maritime safety in the area, there is a continued risk of oil spills and associated harmful environmental impacts. Achieving common situational awareness between oil spill response decision makers and other actors, such as merchant vessel and Vessel Traffic Service center operators, is an important step to minimizing detrimental effects. This paper presents the Next-Generation Smart Response Web (NG-SRW), a web-based application to aid decision making concerning oil spill response. This tool aims to provide, dynamically and interactively, relevant information on oil spills. By integrating the analysis and visualization of dynamic spill features with the sensitivity of environmental elements and value of human uses, the benefits of potential response actions can be compared, helping to develop an appropriate response strategy. The oil spill process simulation enables the response authorities to judge better the complexity and dynamic behavior of the systems and processes behind the potential environmental impact assessment and thereby better control the oil combat action.

Decision support tools for oil spill response (OSR-DSTs): Approaches, challenges, and future research perspectives

Marine oil spills pose a significant threat to ocean and coastal ecosystems. In addition to costs incurred by response activities, an economic burden could be experienced by stakeholders dependent on coastal resources. Decision support tools for oil spill response (OSR-DSTs) have been playing an important role during oil spill response operations. This paper aims to provide an insight into the status of research on OSR-DSTs and identify future directions. Specifically, a systematic review is conducted including an examination of the advantages and limitations of currently applied and emerging decision support techniques for oil spill response. In response to elevated environmental concerns for protecting the polar ecosystem, the review includes a discussion on the use of OSR-DSTs in cold regions. Based on the analysis of information acquired, recommendations for future work on the development of OSR-DSTs to support the selection and implementation of spill response options are presented.

Implementing Bayesian networks for ISO 31000:2018-based maritime oil spill risk management: State-of-art, implementation benefits and challenges, and future research directions

The risk of a large-scale oil spill remains significant in marine environments as international maritime transport continues to grow. The environmental as well as the socio-economic impacts of a large-scale oil spill could be substantial. Oil spill models and modeling tools for Pollution Preparedness and Response (PPR) can support effective risk management. However, there is a lack of integrated approaches that consider oil spill risks comprehensively, learn from all information sources, and treat the system uncertainties in an explicit manner. Recently, the use of the international ISO 31000:2018 risk management framework has been suggested as a suitable basis for supporting oil spill PPR risk management. Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical models that express uncertainty in a probabilistic form and can thus support decision-making processes when risks are complex and data are scarce. While BNs have increasingly been used for oil spill risk assessment (OSRA) for PPR, no link between the BNs literature and the ISO 31000:2018 framework has previously been made. This study explores how Bayesian risk models can be aligned with the ISO 31000:2018 framework by offering a flexible approach to integrate various sources of probabilistic knowledge. In order to gain insight in the current utilization of BNs for oil spill risk assessment and management (OSRA-BNs) for maritime oil spill preparedness and response, a literature review was performed. The review focused on articles presenting BN models that analyze the occurrence of oil spills, consequence mitigation in terms of offshore and shoreline oil spill response, and impacts of spills on the variables of interest. Based on the results, the study discusses the benefits of applying BNs to the ISO 31000:2018 framework as well as the challenges and further research needs.

Bayesian Networks in Environmental Risk Assessment: A Review

Human activities both depend upon and have consequences on the environment. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a process of estimating the probability and consequences of the adverse effects of human activities and other stressors on the environment. Bayesian networks (BNs) can synthesize different types of knowledge and explicitly account for the probabilities of different scenarios, therefore offering a useful tool for ERA. Their use in formal ERA practice has not been evaluated, however, despite their increasing popularity in environmental modeling. This paper reviews the use of BNs in ERA based on peer-reviewed publications. Following a systematic mapping protocol, we identified studies in which BNs have been used in an environmental risk context and evaluated the scope, technical aspects, and use of the models and their results. The review shows that BNs have been applied in ERA, particularly in recent years, and that there is room to develop both the model implementation and participatory modeling practices. Based on this review and the authors' experience, we outline general guidelines and development ideas for using BNs in ERA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:62-78. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Dynamic ecological risk modelling of hydrocarbon release scenarios in Arctic waters

The Arctic is an ecologically diverse area that is increasingly vulnerable to damages from oil spills associated with commercial vessels traversing newly open shipping lanes. The significance of such accidents on Arctic marine habitats and the potential for recovery can be examined using ecological risk assessment (ERA) coupled with a dynamic object-oriented Bayesian network (DOOBN). A DOOBN approach is useful to represent the probabilistic relationships inherent in the interactions between key events associated with an oil spill, including oil dispersion from the source, ice-oil slick interactions, seawater-oil slick formation, sedimentation, and exposures to different aquatic life. From such analysis, a probabilistic cost analysis can be performed to examine the theoretical cost of habitat services lost and restored. The application of an ERA-DOOBN model to assess oil spills in the Arctic is demonstrated using a case study. The utility of the model output for determining habitat restoration costs and developing policy guidelines for ecological response measures in the Arctic is also discussed.

A probabilistic approach for economic evaluation of occupational health and safety interventions: a case study of silica exposure reduction interventions in the construction sector

BACKGROUND

Construction workers are at a high risk of exposure to various types of hazardous substances such as crystalline silica. Though multiple studies indicate the evidence regarding the effectiveness of different silica exposure reduction interventions in the construction sector, the decisions for selecting a specific silica exposure reduction intervention are best informed by an economic evaluation. Economic evaluation of interventions is subjected to uncertainties in practice, mostly due to the lack of precise data on important variables. In this study, we aim to identify the most cost-beneficial silica exposure reduction intervention for the construction sector under uncertain situations.

METHODS

We apply a probabilistic modeling approach that covers a large number of variables relevant to the cost of lung cancer, as well as the costs of silica exposure reduction interventions. To estimate the societal lifetime cost of lung cancer, we use an incidence cost approach. To estimate the net benefit of each intervention, we compare the expected cost of lung cancer cases averted, with expected cost of implementation of the intervention in one calendar year. Sensitivity analysis is used to quantify how different variables affect interventions net benefit.

RESULTS

A positive net benefit is expected for all considered interventions. The highest number of lung cancer cases are averted by combined use of wet method, local exhaust ventilation and personal protective equipment, about 107 cases, with expected net benefit of $45.9 million. Results also suggest that the level of exposure is an important determinant for the selection of the most cost-beneficial intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides important insights for decision makers about silica exposure reduction interventions in the construction sector. It also provides an overview of the potential advantages of using probabilistic modeling approach to undertake economic evaluations, particularly when researchers are confronted with a large number of uncertain variables.

A probabilistic model of decision making regarding the use of chemical dispersants to combat oil spills in the German Bight

Oil spills are one of the major threats to the marine environment in the German Bight (North Sea). In case of an accident, application of chemical dispersants would be one response option among others. Dispersion breaks oil slicks into small droplets which get then mixed into the water column. Removal of the oil from the water surface may reduce contamination of the coast. However, the window of opportunity for effective dispersant application is short and there are concerns about potential effects to the marine life. We propose a Bayesian network (BN) as an interactive and intuitive tool for responders to justify decisions on using chemical dispersants and possibly the provision of appropriate assets. The BN combines detailed sub-BNs for different criteria that govern the decision process. Expected drift trajectories are estimated based on comprehensive numerical ensemble simulations of hypothetical oil spills. Ecological impacts are represented prototypically, focusing on vulnerability of seabird concentrations to pollution in coastal areas. Dispersant effectiveness is estimated considering oil properties and weather conditions. Decision making is supposed to be based on expected satisfaction. The definition of what is considered satisfactory is of central importance for the whole analysis.

Arctic marine fish 'biotransformation toxicity' model for ecological risk assessment

Oil and gas exploration and marine transport in the Arctic region have put the focus on the ecological risk of the possibly exposed organisms. In the present study, the impacts of sea ice, extreme light regime, various polar region-specific physiological characteristics in polar cod (Boreogadus saida) and their effects on xenobiotic distribution and metabolism are studied. A Bayesian belief network is used to model individual fish toxicity. The enzyme activity in the fish liver and other pertinent organs is used as a proxy for cellular damage and repair and is subsequently linked to toxicity in polar cod. Seasonal baseline variation in enzyme production is also taken into consideration. The model estimates the probability of exposure concentration to cause cytotoxicity and circumvents the need to use the traditionally obtained No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC). Instead, it uses biotransformation enzyme activity as a basis to estimate the probability of individual cell damages.

An online platform for rapid oil outflow assessment from grounded tankers for pollution response

The risk of oil spills is an ongoing societal concern. Whereas several decision support systems exist for predicting the fate and drift of spilled oil, there is a lack of accurate models for assessing the amount of oil spilled and its temporal evolution. In order to close this gap, this paper presents an online platform for the fast assessment of tanker grounding accidents in terms of structural damage and time-dependent amount of spilled cargo oil. The simulation platform consists of the definition of accidental scenarios; the assessment of the grounding damage and the prediction of the time-dependent oil spill size. The performance of this integrated online simulation environment is exemplified through illustrative case studies representing two plausible accidental grounding scenarios in the Gulf of Finland: one resulting in oil spill of about 50 t, while in the other the inner hull remained intact and no spill occurred.

Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation

Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic has heightened the oil spill-related risks in this highly sensitive environment. To quantitatively assess these risks, we need knowledge about both the vulnerability and sensitivity of the key Arctic functional groups that may be affected by spilled oil. However, in the Arctic these data are typically scarce or lacking altogether. To compensate for this limited data availability, we propose the use of a probabilistic expert elicitation methodology, which we apply to seals, anatids, and seabirds. Our results suggest that the impacts of oil vary between functional groups, seasons, and oil types. Overall, the impacts are least for seals and greatest for anatids. Offspring seem to be more sensitive than adults, the impact is greatest in spring, and medium and heavy oils are the most harmful oil types. The elicitation process worked well, yet finding enough skilled and motivated experts proved to be difficult.

Magnetic fibrous sorbent for remote and efficient oil adsorption

Oil spill accident and oily water have potential risks to environment and human health, thus need to be imperatively treated. Herein, a magnetic fibrous sorbent was designed via electrospinning of suspension containing polymer and magnetic nanoparticles in one step for remote and efficient oil adsorption. The morphology of the magnetic fibrous sorbent was characterized by scanning electron microscopy. The magnetic property and the wetting behavior were measured by vibrating sample magnetometer and contact angle system, respectively. The results showed that the morphology of the fibers was homogeneous and the magnetic nanoparticles were well dispersed within the fibers. It was also found that this composite sorbent had good magnetic response, special wettability, and remote oil adsorption capacity. We believed this novel polymer/Fe₃O₄ fibrous sorbent could be used as a promising material for the remote oil/water separation.

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port.

A probabilistic approach for a cost-benefit analysis of oil spill management under uncertainty: A Bayesian network model for the Gulf of Finland

Large-scale oil accidents can inflict substantial costs to the society, as they typically result in expensive oil combating and waste treatment operations and have negative impacts on recreational and environmental values. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) offers a way to assess the economic efficiency of management measures capable of mitigating the adverse effects. However, the irregular occurrence of spills combined with uncertainties related to the possible effects makes the analysis a challenging task. We develop a probabilistic modeling approach for a CBA of oil spill management and apply it in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea. The model has a causal structure, and it covers a large number of factors relevant to the realistic description of oil spills, as well as the costs of oil combating operations at open sea, shoreline clean-up, and waste treatment activities. Further, to describe the effects on environmental benefits, we use data from a contingent valuation survey. The results encourage seeking for cost-effective preventive measures, and emphasize the importance of the inclusion of the costs related to waste treatment and environmental values in the analysis. Although the model is developed for a specific area, the methodology is applicable also to other areas facing the risk of oil spills as well as to other fields that need to cope with the challenging combination of low probabilities, high losses and major uncertainties.

Bayesian inference-based environmental decision support systems for oil spill response strategy selection

Contingency plans are essential in guiding the response to marine oil spills. However, they are written before the pollution event occurs so must contain some degree of assumption and prediction and hence may be unsuitable for a real incident when it occurs. The use of Bayesian networks in ecology, environmental management, oil spill contingency planning and post-incident analysis is reviewed and analysed to establish their suitability for use as real-time environmental decision support systems during an oil spill response. It is demonstrated that Bayesian networks are appropriate for facilitating the re-assessment and re-validation of contingency plans following pollutant release, thus helping ensure that the optimum response strategy is adopted. This can minimise the possibility of sub-optimal response strategies causing additional environmental and socioeconomic damage beyond the original pollution event.

A risk analysis of winter navigation in Finnish sea areas

Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in north-European sea areas. In Finnish waters, the smooth flow of maritime traffic and safety of vessel navigation during the winter period are managed through the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system (FSWNS). This article focuses on accident risks in winter navigation operations, beginning with a brief outline of the FSWNS. The study analyses a hazard identification model of winter navigation and reviews accident data extracted from four winter periods. These are adopted as a basis for visualizing the risks in winter navigation operations. The results reveal that experts consider ship independent navigation in ice conditions the most complex navigational operation, which is confirmed by accident data analysis showing that the operation constitutes the type of navigation with the highest number of accidents reported. The severity of the accidents during winter navigation is mainly categorized as less serious. Collision is the most typical accident in ice navigation and general cargo the type of vessel most frequently involved in these accidents. Consolidated ice, ice ridges and ice thickness between 15 and 40cm represent the most common ice conditions in which accidents occur. Thus, the analysis presented in this article establishes the key elements for identifying the operation types which would benefit most from further safety engineering and safety or risk management development.

A Bayesian network for assessing the collision induced risk of an oil accident in the Gulf of Finland

The growth of maritime oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland (GoF), North-Eastern Baltic Sea, increases environmental risks by increasing the probability of oil accidents. By integrating the work of a multidisciplinary research team and information from several sources, we have developed a probabilistic risk assessment application that considers the likely future development of maritime traffic and oil transportation in the area and the resulting risk of environmental pollution. This metamodel is used to compare the effects of two preventative management actions on the tanker collision probabilities and the consequent risk. The resulting risk is evaluated from four different perspectives. Bayesian networks enable large amounts of information about causalities to be integrated and utilized in probabilistic inference. Compared with the baseline period of 2007-2008, the worst-case scenario is that the risk level increases 4-fold by the year 2015. The management measures are evaluated and found to decrease the risk by 4-13%, but the utility gained by their joint implementation would be less than the sum of their independent effects. In addition to the results concerning the varying risk levels, the application provides interesting information about the relationships between the different elements of the system.

Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges

Bayesian networks are quantitative modeling tools whose applications to the maritime traffic safety context are becoming more popular. This paper discusses the utilization of Bayesian networks in maritime safety modeling. Based on literature and the author's own experiences, the paper studies what Bayesian networks can offer to maritime accident prevention and safety modeling and discusses a few challenges in their application to this context. It is argued that the capability of representing rather complex, not necessarily causal but uncertain relationships makes Bayesian networks an attractive modeling tool for the maritime safety and accidents. Furthermore, as the maritime accident and safety data is still rather scarce and has some quality problems, the possibility to combine data with expert knowledge and the easy way of updating the model after acquiring more evidence further enhance their feasibility. However, eliciting the probabilities from the maritime experts might be challenging and the model validation can be tricky. It is concluded that with the utilization of several data sources, Bayesian updating, dynamic modeling, and hidden nodes for latent variables, Bayesian networks are rather well-suited tools for the maritime safety management and decision-making.

Disutility analysis of oil spills: graphs and trends

This paper reports the results of an analysis of oil spill cost data assembled from a worldwide pollution database that mainly includes data from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund. The purpose of the study is to analyze the conditions of marine pollution accidents and the factors that impact the costs of oil spills worldwide. The accidents are classified into categories based on their characteristics, and the cases are compared using charts to show how the costs are affected under all conditions. This study can be used as a helpful reference for developing a detailed statistical model that is capable of reliably and realistically estimating the total costs of oil spills. To illustrate the differences identified by this statistical analysis, the results are compared with the results of previous studies, and the findings are discussed.

A probabilistic model for accidental cargo oil outflow from product tankers in a ship-ship collision

In risk assessment of maritime transportation, estimation of accidental oil outflow from tankers is important for assessing environmental impacts. However, there typically is limited data concerning the specific structural design and tank arrangement of ships operating in a given area. Moreover, there is uncertainty about the accident scenarios potentially emerging from ship encounters. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) model for reasoning under uncertainty for the assessment of accidental cargo oil outflow in a ship-ship collision where a product tanker is struck. The BN combines a model linking impact scenarios to damage extent with a model for estimating the tank layouts based on limited information regarding the ship. The methodology for constructing the model is presented and output for two accident scenarios is shown. The discussion elaborates on the issue of model validation, both in terms of the BN and in light of the adopted uncertainty/bias-based risk perspective.