Long-term evaluation of water quality parameters of the Karoun River using a regression approach and the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

The combination of multiple linear regression and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system can accurately predict trihalomethane levels in tap water with fewer water quality parameters

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models are accurate in predicting the levels of disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water. However, these models are not yet practical due to the large number of parameters involved, which should take a significant amount of time and cost to detect. Developing accurate and reliable prediction models of DBPs with fewest parameters is essential in the management of drinking water safety. This study used the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and radial basis function artificial neural network (RBF-ANN) to predict the levels of trihalomethanes (THMs), the most abundant DBPs in drinking water. Two water quality parameters identified by multiple linear regression (MLR) models were used as model inputs, and the quality of the models was assessed based on criteria such as correlation coefficient (r), mean absolute relative error (MARE), and the percentage of predictions with absolute relative error less than 25% (NE<25%) and over than 40% (NE>40%), etc. The results showed that the ANFIS models had higher correlation coefficients (r = 0.853-0.898) and prediction accuracy (NE<25% = 91%-94%) compared to RBF-ANN models (r = 0.553-0.819; NE<25% = 77%-86%) and traditional MLR models (r = 0.389-0.619; NE<25% = 67%-77%). Conversely, the prediction error, as indicated by MARE and NE>40%, showed the opposite trend: ANFIS models (MARE = 8%-11%; NE>40% = 0-5%) < RBF-ANN models (MARE = 15%-18%; NE>40% = 5%-11%) < MLR models (MARE = 19%-21%; NE>40% = 11%-17%). The present study provided a novel approach for constructing high-quality prediction models of THMs in water supply systems using only two parameters. This method holds promise as a viable alternative for monitoring THMs concentrations in tap water, thereby contributing to the improvement of water quality management strategies.

The Use of Artificial Neural Networks to Predict the Physicochemical Characteristics of Water Quality in Three District Municipalities, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Reliable prediction of water quality changes is a prerequisite for early water pollution control and is vital in environmental monitoring, ecosystem sustainability, and human health. This study uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique to develop the best model fits to predict water quality parameters by employing multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network and the radial basis function (RBF) neural network, using data collected from three district municipalities. Two input combination models, MLP-4-5-4 and MLP-4-9-4, were trained, verified, and tested for their predictive performance ability, and their physicochemical prediction accuracy was compared by using each model's observed data with the predicted data. The MLP-4-5-4 model showed a better understanding of the data sets and water quality predictive ability giving an MSE of 39.06589 and a correlation coefficient (R²) of the observed and the predicted water quality of 0.989383 compared to the MLP-4-9-4 model (R² = 0.993532, MSE = 39.03087). These results apply to natural water resources management in South Africa and similar catchment systems. The MLP-4-5-4 system can be scaled up for future water quality prediction of the Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTPs), groundwater, and surface water while raising awareness among the public and industry on future water quality.

Nature rejuvenation: Long-term (1989-2016) vs short-term memory approach based appraisal of water quality of the upper part of Ganga River, India

The deteriorating water quality (WQ) of the sacred north-flowing perennial Indian River, Ganga was a serious concern in recent decades for population adjoining to the river and policy planners. The present evaluation attempts to assess the long-term (1989-2016) physiochemical characteristics of WQ of river Ganga at five upstream locations (Uttarkashi, Tehri, Rudraprayag, Devprayag, and Rishikesh) of Uttarakhand, India using comprehensive pollution index (CPI) and environmetrics (PCA and CA). These methods were used to categorize, summarize expensive datasets, and grouping the similar polluted areas along the river stretches. The WQ of river at all the locations were within the good category and most of the physiochemical parameters were well within their acceptable limit for drinking WQ. Considerably, CPI demonstrated the river WQ was in slight pollution range (CPI: 0.40-1.00) in the year 2007 and 2015 at all the five locations. The positive correlation coefficient (R² > 0.50) among NO₂ + NO₃, Ca, Na, B, and K indicates the significant contribution of organic and inorganic salts through runoffs from catchments due to weathering of rocks. PCA confirmed the input source of nutrients in the river from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Moreover, the upstream WQ assessed was found to be good as compared to the severely polluted downstream region. Due to COVID-19 and shutdown in the country, reduction of pollution load in the river was observed due to the rejuvenation capability of river Ganga. This information can assist the environmentalist, policymaker, and water resources planners & managers to prepare strategic planning in advance to maintain the aesthetic and cultural value of Ganga river in future.

A novel Hybrid Wavelet-Locally Weighted Linear Regression (W-LWLR) Model for Electrical Conductivity (EC) Prediction in Surface Water

Rivers are the most common and vital sources of water, which play a fundamental role in ecological systems and human life. Water quality assessment is a major element of managing water resources and accurate prediction of water quality is very essential for better management of rivers. The electrical conductivity (EC) is known as one of the most important water quality parameters to predict salinity and mineralization of water. The present study introduces a novel hybrid wavelet-locally weighted linear regression (W-LWLR) method to predict the monthly EC of the Sefidrud River in Iran. 240 monthly discharge (Q) and EC samples, over a period of 20 years, were collected. The data were divided into two frequency components at two decomposition levels using the mother wavelet Bior 6.8. To compare the performance of various methods, the standalone LWLR, support vector regression (SVR), wavelet support vector regression (W-SVR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), wavelet ARIMA (W-ARIMA), multivariate linear regression (MLR), and wavelet MLR (W-MLR) were also used. The discrete wavelet transform (DWT) was coupled with the LWLR, SVR, and ARIMA to create the W-LWLR, W-SVR, W-ARIMA methods to predict the EC parameter. The comparisons demonstrated that the W-LWLR was more accurate and efficient than the LWLR, SVR, W-SVR, ARIMA, and W-ARIMA methods. The correlation coefficient (R) values were 0.973, 0.95, 0.565, 0.473, 0.425, 0.917 for the W-LWLR, W-SVR, LWLR, SVR, ARIMA, and W-ARIMA methods, respectively. Further, the root mean square error (RMSE) of W-LWLR was 89.78, while the corresponding values for W-SVR, LWLR, SVR, ARIMA, W-ARIMA, MLR, and W-MLR were 123.50, 319.95, 341.20, 350.153, 155.292, 351.774, and 157.856 respectively. The overall comparison metrics and error analysis demonstrated the superiority of the new proposed W-LWLR method for water quality prediction.

A Novel Method in Surface Water Quality Assessment Based on Improved Variable Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis

In the case of surface water pollution, it is important and necessary to accurately assess the level of contaminated water and ensure the safety of drinking water for people in disaster areas during floods. However, for the assessment of the strict requirements of drinking water, traditional assessment methods still have some limitations, such as low precision and rationality. In order to overcome these limitations, in the light of the theory of set pair analysis and variable fuzzy set, we propose an improved variable fuzzy set pair analysis method (IVFSPA), which combines the analysis framework of variable fuzzy set and set pair analysis, and has made some improvements to the fusion architecture. Firstly, we present a novel game theory comprehensive weighting method, in which the objective entropy method and the subjective analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method employed to obtain the reasonable weight. Then, based on the Nemerow index method, we improve the arithmetic form of “Pi” (Equation P) to replace the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Furthermore, we design a double judgment mode of combining the principle of maximum membership degree with the positive and negative relationship between the standard value and the measured value, which can accurately judge the evaluation level of surface water quality. Finally, to validate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, experiments was conducted at the representative river collection sections of Nanking, China, employing water quality data of 14 sampling sections in their rivers in Nanking during the 2017 flood. In terms of performance metcrics of precision and rationality, based on the values of “TP”, “NH₃-N”, “Pb”, “AS” and “KMnO₄” of “Ch-lh section/Chuhe gate” are 0.415, 3.77, 0.07, 0.23 and 7.12, respectively, the level of Ch-lh section/Chuhe gate is that the IVFSPA is Class V and the rest are class IV. Results of experiments show that our IVFSPA method can achieve a good performance, compared with other traditional methods.

Application of a Hybrid Optimized BP Network Model to Estimate Water Quality Parameters of Beihai Lake in Beijing

Nowadays, freshwater resources are facing numerous crises and pressures, resulting from both artificial and natural process, so it is crucial to predict the water quality for the department of water environment protection. This paper proposes a hybrid optimized algorithm involving a particle swarm optimization (PSO) and genetic algorithm (GA) combined BP neural network that can predict the water quality in time series and has good performance in Beihai Lake in Beijing. The data sets consist of six water quality parameters which include Hydrogen Ion Concentration (pH), Chlorophyll-a (CHLA), Hydrogenated Amine (NH4H), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), and electrical conductivity (EC). The performance of the model was assessed through the absolute percentage error ( A P E m a x ), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ). Study results show that the model based on PSO and GA to optimize the BP neural network is able to predict the water quality parameters with reasonable accuracy, suggesting that the model is a valuable tool for lake water quality estimation. The results show that the hybrid optimized BP model has a higher prediction capacity and better robustness of water quality parameters compared with the traditional BP neural network, the PSO-optimized BP neural network, and the GA-optimized BP neural network.

The impact of socioeconomic system on the river system in a heavily disturbed basin

The quantitative assessment of the impact of socioeconomic development on river water environment is important to the scientific management of river basins. However, current methods have high data requirements or are difficult to deal with the impact between systems (which is defined by a collection of indicators). This paper first uses canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to understand the relationship between socialeconomic system (defined by a set of indicators reflecting socioeconomic development) and river system (defined by a set of indicators reflecting river water environment), and then proposes a method to assess the impact of socioeconomic system on river system by integrating CCA and the degrees of influence of river system indicators. The proposed method and framework are applied to the Shaying River Basin with the characteristics of multi-sluices, high pollution, and dense population based on data from 2000 to 2015. Results indicate that socioeconomic and river systems are highly related to each other with the average influence degree of greater than 0.9, indicating very close relationships between socioeconomic and river systems. The changes of influence degree vary between 0.19 and 0.79 with a turning point in 2010. Most of the influence levels are "moderate" (influence degree between 0.4 and 0.6) or "high" (influence degrees between 0.6 and 0.8) before 2010 but become to "low" (influence degrees between 0.2 and 0.4) since then. In addition, the influence degree shows a significant increase from upstream to downstream with Zhoukou Station as the turning point, meaning that the stronger the human activity is, the greater the impact of the socioeconomic system on the river system is. The main influential factors are population density and sewage treatment rate. The proposed method contributes to the research in river management with limited data availability and the results can serve as an important reference for basin management.