Seasonality and selective trends in viral acute respiratory tract infections

Competition to Explain Stable Prevalence of Seasonal Viral Respiratory Infections in Temperate Climates

The prevalence of seasonal viral respiratory infections in temperate climates is relatively stable, but individual viruses vary. This phenomenon is not explained via the conventional view of influenza seasonality which is still incomplete. The viral-flow theory, an outsider theory about the seasonality of influenza, where insects buffer viruses, is able to explain the stable prevalence of viral respiratory infections. Alternative hypotheses to explain this phenomenon are discussed.

[Disproving the myth of "abscess weather" predisposing to peritonsillitis and peritonsillar abscess]

BACKGROUND

Peritonsillar abscess (PTA) is often seen as a complication of acute tonsillitis and is defined as pus retention between the tonsillar capsule and the peritonsillar tissue. The etiology and pathogenesis have not yet been fully elucidated. A connection between certain weather conditions and temperature fluctuations and the occurrence of abscesses in the head and neck region has been discussed for years. The question here is whether higher temperature fluctuations are predisposing for the formation of abscesses.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective evaluation of all patients hospitalized with peritonsillitis or PTA in the Department of Otorhinolaryngology of the Klinikum Rechts der Isar of the Technical University of Munich during a period of 10 years (2012-2021) was performed. Each patient was individually correlated with daily temperature data from the statistical meteorological office of the City of Munich.

RESULTS

A total of 1450 patients were included, 270 patients (18.62%) with peritonsillitis and 1180 patients (81.38%) with PTA. A correlation between the occurrence of peritonsillitis or PTA and major temperature fluctuations could be excluded in this large patient population. Moreover, a similar frequency of peritonsillitis and PTA was seen throughout the year.

CONCLUSION

The myth of a temperature dependence of the development of peritonsillitis or PTA and a so-called abscess weather could be negated in this study.

Air Pollution and Influenza: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Influenza is the first infectious disease that implements global monitoring and is one of the major public health issues in the world. Air pollutants have become an important global public health issue, in recent years, and much epidemiological and clinical evidence has shown that air pollutants are associated with respiratory diseases.

Methods

We comprehensively searched articles published up to 15 November 2022 in PubMed, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Database of Chinese sci-tech periodicals, and Wanfang Database. The search strategies were based on keyword combinations related to influenza and air pollutants. The air pollutants included particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3). Meta-analysis was performed using the R programming language (R4.2.1).

Results

A total of 2926 records were identified and 1220 duplicates were excluded. Finally, 19 studies were included in the meta-analysis according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. We observed a significant association between partial air pollutants (PM2.5, NO2, PM10 and SO2) and the incidence risk of influenza. The RRs were 1.0221 (95% CI: 1.0093~1.0352), 1.0395 (95% CI: 1.0131~1.0666), 1.007 (95% CI: 1.0009~1.0132), and 1.0352 (95% CI. 1.0076~1.0635), respectively. However, there was no significant relationship between CO and O3 exposure and influenza, and the RRs were 1.2272 (95% CI: 0.9253~1.6275) and 1.0045 (95% CI: 0.9930~1.0160), respectively.

Conclusion

Exposure to PM2.5, NO2, PM10, and SO2 was significantly associated with influenza, which may be risk factors for influenza. The association of CO and O3 with influenza needs further investigation.

Epidemiological characteristics of seasonal influenza under implementation of zero-COVID-19 strategy in China

OBJECTIVE

Respiratory viral diseases have posed a persistent threat to public health due to their high transmissibility. Influenza virus and SARS-Cov-2 are both respiratory viruses that have caused global pandemics. A zero-COVID-19 strategy is a public health policy imposed to stop community transmission of COVID-19 as soon as it is detected. In this study, we aim to examine the epidemiological characteristics of seasonal influenza in the past five years before and after the emergence of COVID-19 in China and observe the possible impact of the strategy on influenza.

METHODS

Data from two data sources were retrospectively analyzed. A comparison on influenza incidence rate between Hubei and Zhejiang provinces was conducted based on data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Then a descriptive and comparative analysis on seasonal influenza based on data from Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University and Hangzhou Ninth People`s Hospital before and after the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 was conducted.

RESULTS

From 2010-2017, both provinces experienced relatively low influenza activity until the 1st week of 2018, when they reached peak incidence rates of 78.16/100000PY, 34.05/100000PY respectively. Since then, influenza showed an obvious seasonality in Hubei and Zhejiang until the onset of COVID-19. During 2020 and 2021, there was a dramatic decline in influenza activity compared to 2018 and 2019. However, influenza activity seemed to rebound at the beginning of 2022 and surged in summer, with positive rates of 20.52% and 31.53% in Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University and Hangzhou Ninth People`s Hospital respectively as of the time writing this article.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results reinforce the hypothesis that zero-COVID-19 strategy may impact the epidemiological pattern of influenza. Under the complex pandemic situation, implementation of NPIs could be a beneficial strategy containing not only COVID-19 but also influenza.

A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics

Background

It is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics remains elusive. In this study, we aimed to characterize the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam.

Methods

We monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodicities in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodicities to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models.

Findings

During ten years of community surveillance, 66,799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI: 8.8%-9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC = 183) compared to all annual covariates (ΔAIC = 263). Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent along in time or across influenza (sub)types.

Interpretation

Our study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach.

The Impact of Cold Ambient Temperature in the Pattern of Influenza Virus Infection

Background

Prior literature suggests that cold temperature strongly influences the immune function of animals and human behaviors, which may allow for the transmission of respiratory viral infections. However, information on the impact of cold stimuli, especially the impact of temporal change in the ambient temperature on influenza virus transmission, is limited.

Methods

A susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model was applied to evaluate the effect of temperature change on influenza virus transmission.

Results

The mean temperature of the prior week was positively associated with the number of newly diagnosed cases (0.107 [95% Bayesian credible interval {BCI}, .106-.109]), whereas the mean difference in the temperature of the prior week was negatively associated (-0.835 [95% BCI, -.840 to -.830]). The product of the mean temperature and mean difference in the temperature of the previous week were also negatively associated with the number of newly diagnosed cases (-0.192 [95% BCI, -.197 to -.187]).

Conclusions

The mean temperature and the mean difference in temperature affected the number of newly diagnosed influenza cases differently. Our data suggest that high ambient temperature and a drop in the temperature and their interaction increase the risk of infection. Therefore, the highest risk of infection is attributable to a steep fall in temperature in a relatively warm environment.

The influences of the East Asian Monsoon on the spatio-temporal pattern of seasonal influenza activity in China

Previous research has extensively studied the seasonalities of human influenza infections and the effect of specific climatic factors in different regions. However, there is limited understanding of the influences of monsoons. This study applied generalized additive model with monthly surveillance data from mainland China to explore the influences of the East Asian Monsoon on the spatio-temporal pattern of seasonal influenza in China. The results suggested two influenza active periods in northern China and three active periods in southern China. The study found that the northerly advancement of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) influences the summer influenza spatio-temporal patterns in both southern and northern China. At the interannual scale, the north-south converse effect of EASM on influenza activity is mainly due to the converse effect of EASM on humidity and precipitation. Within the annual scale, influenza activity in southern China gradually reaches its maximum during the summer exacerbated by the northerly advancement of EASM. Furthermore, the winter epidemic in China is related to the low temperature and humidity influenced by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM). Moreover, the active period in transition season is related partially to the large rapid temperature change influenced by the transition of EAWM and EASM. Despite the delayed onset and instability, the climatic condition influenced by the East Asian Monsoon is one of the potential key drivers of influenza activity.

The effects of indoor temperature and humidity on local transmission of COVID-19 and how it relates to global trends

During the COVID-19 pandemic, analyses on global data have not reached unanimous consensus on whether warmer and humid weather curbs the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We conjectured that this lack of consensus is due to the discrepancy between global environmental data such as temperature and humidity being collected outdoors, while most infections have been reported to occur indoors, where conditions can be different. Thus, we have methodologically investigated the effect of temperature and relative humidity on the spread of expired respiratory droplets from the mouth, which are assumed to be the main cause of most short-range infections. Calculating the trajectory of individual droplets using an experimentally validated evaporation model, the final height and distance of the evaporated droplets is obtained, and then correlated with global COVID-19 spread. Increase in indoor humidity is associated with reduction in COVID-19 spread, while temperature has no statistically significant effect.

Meteorological factors' effects on COVID-19 show seasonality and spatiality in Brazil

The meteorological conditions may affect COVID-19 transmission. However, the roles of seasonality and macro-climate are still contentious due to the limited time series for early-stage studies. We studied meteorological factors' effects on COVID-19 transmission in Brazil from February 25 to November 15, 2020. We aimed to explore whether this impact showed seasonal characteristics and spatial variations related to the macro-climate. We applied two-way fixed-effect models to identify the effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 transmission and used spatial analysis to explore their spatial-temporal characteristics with a relatively long-time span. The results showed that cold, dry and windless conditions aggravated COVID-19 transmission. The daily average temperature, humidity, and wind speed negatively affected the daily new cases. Humidity and temperature played a dominant role in this process. For the time series, the influences of meteorological conditions on COVID-19 had a periodic fluctuation of 3-4 months (in line with the seasons in Brazil). The turning points of this fluctuation occurred at the turn of seasons. Spatially, the negative effects of temperature and humidity on COVID-19 transmission clustered in the northeastern and central parts of Brazil. This is consistent with the range of arid climate types. Overall, the seasonality and similar climate types should be considered to estimate the spatial-temporal COVID-19 patterns. Winter is a critical time to be alert for COVID-19, especially in the northern part of Brazil.

Combinatorial influence of environmental temperature, obesity and cholesterol on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity

The continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants not only causes a long-term global health concerns but also encounters the vaccine/drug effectiveness. The degree of virus infectivity and its clinical outcomes often depend on various biological parameters (e.g., age, genetic factors, diabetes, obesity and other ailments) of an individual along with multiple environmental factors (e.g., air temperature, humidity, seasons). Thus, despite the extensive search for and use of several vaccine/drug candidates, the combinative influence of these various extrinsic and intrinsic risk factors involved in the SARS-CoV-2 virus infectivity has yet to be explored. Previous studies have reported that environment temperature is negatively associated with virus infectivity for SARS-CoV-2. This study elaborates on our previous findings, investigating the link between environmental temperature and other metabolic parameters, such as average total cholesterol and obesity, with the increase in COVID-19 cases. Statistical analysis conducted on a per country basis not only supports the existence of a significant negative correlation between environmental temperature and SARS-CoV-2 infections but also found a strong positive correlation between COVID-19 cases and these metabolic parameters. In addition, a multiphase growth curve model (GCM) was built to predict the contribution of these covariates in SARS-CoV-2 infectivity. These findings, for first time, support the idea that there might be a combinatorial impact of environmental temperature, average total cholesterol, and obesity in the inflation of the SARS-CoV-2 infectivity.

Effects of particulate matter on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases: an ecological study based on 12.5 years of time series data in Shanghai

BACKGROUND

Previous epidemiological studies on the association between short-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) with hospital admission in major cities in China were limited to shorter study periods or a single hospital. The aim of this ecological study based on a 12.5-year time series was to investigate the association of short-term exposure to PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) and aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM₁₀) with hospital admissions for respiratory diseases.

METHODS

Daily hospital admissions data were from the Shanghai Medical Insurance System for the period January 1, 2008 to July 31, 2020. We estimated the percentage change with its 95% confidence interval (CI) for each 10 μg/m³ increase in the level of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ after adjustment for calendar time, day of the week, public holidays, and meteorological factors applying a generalized additive model with a quasi-Poisson distribution.

RESULTS

There were 1,960,361 hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Shanghai during the study period. A 10 μg/m³ increase in the level of each class of PM was associated with increased total respiratory diseases when the lag time was 0 day (PM_2.5: 0.755%; 95% CI: 0.422, 1.089%; PM₁₀: 0.250%; 95% CI: 0.042, 0.459%). The PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ levels also had positive associations with admissions for COPD, asthma, and pneumonia. Stratified analyses demonstrated stronger effects in patients more than 45 years old and during the cold season. Total respiratory diseases increased linearly with PM concentration from 0 to 100 μg/m³, and increased more slowly at higher PM concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

This time-series study suggests that short-term exposure to PM increased the risk for hospital admission for respiratory diseases, even at low concentrations. These findings suggest that reducing atmospheric PM concentrations may reduce hospital admissions for respiratory diseases.

Assessing the impact of air pollution and climate seasonality on COVID-19 multiwaves in Madrid, Spain

While the COVID-19 pandemic is still in progress, being under the fifth COVID-19 wave in Madrid, over more than one year, Spain experienced a four wave pattern. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 pathogens in Madrid metropolitan region was investigated from an urban context associated with seasonal variability of climate and air pollution drivers. Based on descriptive statistics and regression methods of in-situ and geospatial daily time series data, this study provides a comparative analysis between COVID-19 waves incidence and mortality cases in Madrid under different air quality and climate conditions. During analyzed period 1 January 2020-1 July 2021, for each of the four COVID-19 waves in Madrid were recorded anomalous anticyclonic synoptic meteorological patterns in the mid-troposphere and favorable stability conditions for COVID-19 disease fast spreading. As airborne microbial temporal pattern is most affected by seasonal changes, this paper found: 1) a significant negative correlation of air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, and surface solar irradiance with daily new COVID-19 incidence and deaths; 2) a similar mutual seasonality with climate variables of the first and the fourth COVID-waves from spring seasons of 2020 and 2021 years. Such information may help the health decision makers and public plan for the future.

Coronavirus seasonality, respiratory infections and weather

Background

The survival of coronaviruses are influenced by weather conditions and seasonal coronaviruses are more common in winter months. We examine the seasonality of respiratory infections in England and Wales and the associations between weather parameters and seasonal coronavirus cases.

Methods

Respiratory virus disease data for England and Wales between 1989 and 2019 was extracted from the Second-Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) database used for routine surveillance. Seasonal coronaviruses from 2012 to 2019 were compared to daily average weather parameters for the period before the patient’s specimen date with a range of lag periods.

Results

The seasonal distribution of 985,524 viral infections in England and Wales (1989–2019) showed coronavirus infections had a similar seasonal distribution to influenza A and bocavirus, with a winter peak between weeks 2 to 8. Ninety percent of infections occurred where the daily mean ambient temperatures were below 10 °C; where daily average global radiation exceeded 500 kJ/m²/h; where sunshine was less than 5 h per day; or where relative humidity was above 80%. Coronavirus infections were significantly more common where daily average global radiation was under 300 kJ/m²/h (OR 4.3; CI 3.9–4.6; p < 0.001); where average relative humidity was over 84% (OR 1.9; CI 3.9–4.6; p < 0.001); where average air temperature was below 10 °C (OR 6.7; CI 6.1–7.3; p < 0.001) or where sunshine was below 4 h (OR 2.4; CI 2.2–2.6; p < 0.001) when compared to the distribution of weather values for the same time period. Seasonal coronavirus infections in children under 3 years old were more frequent at the start of an annual epidemic than at the end, suggesting that the size of the susceptible child population may be important in the annual cycle.

Conclusions

The dynamics of seasonal coronaviruses reflect immunological, weather, social and travel drivers of infection. Evidence from studies on different coronaviruses suggest that low temperature and low radiation/sunlight favour survival. This implies a seasonal increase in SARS-CoV-2 may occur in the UK and countries with a similar climate as a result of an increase in the R₀ associated with reduced temperatures and solar radiation. Increased measures to reduce transmission will need to be introduced in winter months for COVID-19.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06785-2.

Test for Covid-19 seasonality and the risk of second waves

Ten months into the Covid-19 pandemic it remains unclear whether transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is affected by climate factors. Using a dynamic epidemiological model with Covid-19 climate sensitivity in the likely range, we demonstrate why attempts to detect a climate signal in Covid-19 have thus far been inconclusive. Then we formulate a novel methodology based on susceptible-infected time trajectories that can be used to test for seasonal climate sensitivity in observed Covid-19 infection data. We show that if the disease does have a substantial seasonal dependence, and herd immunity is not established during the first peak season of the outbreak (or a vaccine does not become available), there is likely to be a seasonality-sensitive second wave of infections about one year after the initial outbreak. In regions where non-pharmaceutical control has contained the disease in the first year of outbreak and thus kept a large portion of the population susceptible, the second wave may be substantially larger in amplitude than the first if control measures are relaxed. This is simply because it develops under the favorable conditions of a full autumn to winter period and from a larger pool of infected individuals.

Impact of biometeorological conditions and air pollution on influenza-like illnesses incidence in Warsaw

In order to assess the influence of atmospheric conditions and particulate matter (PM) on the seasonally varying incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) in the capital of Poland-Warsaw, we analysed time series of ILI reported for the about 1.75 million residents in total and for different age groups in 288 approximately weekly periods, covering 6 years 2013-2018. Using Poisson regression, we predicted ILI by the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as biometeorological indicator, and by PM2.5 and PM10, respectively, as air quality measures accounting for lagged effects spanning up to 3 weeks. Excess ILI incidence after adjusting for seasonal and annual trends was calculated by fitting generalized additive models. ILI morbidity increased with rising PM concentrations, for both PM2.5 and PM10, and with cooler atmospheric conditions as indicated by decreasing UTCI. While the PM effect focused on the actual reporting period, the atmospheric influence exhibited a more evenly distributed lagged effect pattern over the considered 3-week period. Though ILI incidence adjusted for population size significantly declined with age, age did not significantly modify the effect sizes of both PM and UTCI. These findings contribute to better understanding environmental conditionings of influenza seasonality in a temperate climate. This will be beneficial to forecasting future dynamics of ILI and to planning clinical and public health resources under climate change scenarios.

Temperature dependent viral tropism: understanding viral seasonality and pathogenicity as applied to the avoidance and treatment of endemic viral respiratory illnesses

This review seeks to explain three features of viral respiratory illnesses that have perplexed generations of virologists: (1) the seasonal timing of respiratory illness and the rapid response of outbreaks to weather, specifically temperature; (2) the common viruses causing respiratory illness worldwide, including year‐round disease in the Tropics; (3) the rapid arrival and termination of epidemics caused by influenza and other viruses. The inadequacy of the popular explanations of seasonality is discussed, and a simple hypothesis is proposed, called temperature dependent viral tropism (TDVT), that is compatible with the above features of respiratory illness. TDVT notes that viruses can spread more effectively if they moderate their pathogenicity (thereby maintaining host mobility) and suggests that endemic respiratory viruses accomplish this by developing thermal sensitivity within a range that supports organ‐specific viral tropism within the human body, whereby they replicate most rapidly at temperatures below body temperature. This can confine them to the upper respiratory tract and allow them to avoid infecting the lungs, heart, gut etc. Biochemical and tissue‐culture studies show that ‘wild’ respiratory viruses show such natural thermal sensitivity. The typical early autumn surge of colds and the occurrence of respiratory illness in the Tropics year‐round at intermediate levels are explained by the tendency for strains to adapt their thermal sensitivity to their local climate and season. TDVT has important practical implications for preventing and treating respiratory illness including Covid‐19. It is testable with many options for experiments to increase our understanding of viral seasonality and pathogenicity.

Climate and the spread of COVID-19

Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress the logarithm of confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country’s distance from the equator, controlling for key confounding factors: air travel, vehicle concentration, urbanization, COVID-19 testing intensity, cell phone usage, income, old-age dependency ratio, and health expenditure. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 4.3% increase in cases per million inhabitants as of January 9, 2021 (p value < 0.001). Our results imply that a country, which is located 1000 km closer to the equator, could expect 33% fewer cases per million inhabitants. Since the change in Earth’s angle towards the sun between equinox and solstice is about 23.5°, one could expect a difference in cases per million inhabitants of 64% between two hypothetical countries whose climates differ to a similar extent as two adjacent seasons. According to our results, countries are expected to see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter. However, our results do not imply that the disease will vanish during summer or will not affect countries close to the equator. Rather, the higher temperatures and more intense UV radiation in summer are likely to support public health measures to contain SARS-CoV-2.

The role of vitamin D in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection: An update

The ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is having a disastrous impact on global health. Recently, several studies examined the potential of vitamin D to reduce the effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection by modulating the immune system. Indeed, vitamin D has been found to boost the innate immune system and stimulate the adaptive immune response against SARS-CoV-2 infection. In this review, we provide a comprehensive update of the immunological mechanisms underlying the positive effects of vitamin D in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection as well as a thorough survey of the recent epidemiological studies and clinical trials that tested vitamin D as a potential therapeutic agent against COVID-19 infection. We believe that a better understanding of the histopathology and immunopathology of the disease as well as the mechanism of vitamin D effects on COVID-19 severity will ultimately pave the way for a more effective prevention and control of this global pandemic.

Meteorological factors, governmental responses and COVID-19: Evidence from four European countries

With the global lockdown, meteorological factors are highly discussed for COVID-19 transmission. In this study, national-specific and region-specific data sets from Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom were used to explore the effect of temperature, absolute humidity and diurnal temperature range (DTR) on COVID-19 transmission. From February 1st to November 1st, a 7-day COVID-19 case doubling time (Td), meteorological factors with cumulative 14-day-lagged, government response index and other factors were fitted in the distributed lag nonlinear models. The overall relative risk (RR) of the 10th and the 25th percentiles temperature compared to the median were 0.0074 (95% CI: 0.0023, 0.0237) and 0.1220 (95% CI: 0.0667, 0.2232), respectively. The pooled RR of lower (10th, 25th) and extremely high (90th) absolute humidity were 0.3266 (95% CI: 0.1379, 0.7734), 0.6018 (95% CI: 0.4693, 0.7718) and 0.3438 (95% CI: 0.2254, 0.5242), respectively. While the DTR did not have a significant effect on Td. The total cumulative effect of temperature (10th) and absolute humidity (10th, 90th) on Td increased with the change of lag days. Similarly, a decline in temperature and absolute humidity at cumulative 14-day-lagged corresponded to the lower RR on Td in pooled region-specific effects. In summary, the government responses are important factors in alleviating the spread of COVID-19. After controlling that, our results indicate that both the cold and the dry environment also likely facilitate the COVID-19 transmission.

Radiological, epidemiological and clinical patterns of pulmonary viral infections

Respiratory viruses are the most common causes of acute respiratory infections. However, identification of the underlying viral pathogen may not always be easy. Clinical presentations of respiratory viral infections usually overlap and may mimic those of diseases caused by bacteria. However, certain imaging morphologic patterns may suggest a particular viral pathogen as the cause of the infection. Although definitive diagnosis cannot be made on the basis of clinical or imaging features alone, the use of a combination of clinical and radiographic findings can substantially improve the accuracy of diagnosis. The purpose of this review is to present the clinical, epidemiological and radiological patterns of lower respiratory tract viral pathogens providing a comprehensive approach for their diagnosis and identification in hospitals and community outbreaks.

Short-term effects of ambient air pollution on the incidence of influenza in Wuhan, China: A time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that air pollution is associated with many adverse health outcomes such as cardiovascular diseases (CVD), respiratory diseases, cancer, and birth defects. Yet few studies dig into the relationship between air pollution and airborne infectious diseases.

METHODS

Daily data on influenza incidence were obtained from Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Hubei CDC). Data on air pollutants including nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), ground-level ozone (O₃), particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM_2.5), and PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM₁₀) were retrieved from ten national air sampling stations located at Wuhan. We applied generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate the associations between air pollution and the risk of influenza in Wuhan, China during 2015-2017.

RESULTS

In the single-day lag model, the largest effect estimates were observed at lag 0. An increased relative risk (RR) of influenza was significantly associated with a 10 μg/m³ increase in SO₂ (RR: 1.099; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.011-1.195), NO₂ (RR: 1.039; 95% CI: 1.013-1.065), and O₃ (RR: 1.005; 95% CI: 0.994-1.016), respectively. In the multi-day lag model, concentrations of SO₂, NO₂, and O₃ were statistically significantly associated with the risk of influenza at lag 0-1. The seasonal analysis suggests that the influence of air pollution on influenza is greater in the cold season as compared in the warm season in the early lag days. The multi-pollutant model indicates that NO₂ may be a potential confounder for co-pollutants.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that air pollution may be associated with the risk of influenza in a broad sense. Therefore, when formulating policies to deal with influenza outbreaks in the future, factors regarding air pollution should be taken into consideration.

Multiple evanescent white dot syndrome: clinical course and factors influencing visual acuity recovery

Objective

To report the demographics and the clinical course of patients with multiple evanescent white dot syndrome (MEWDS) and to investigate for those factors which influence visual acuity (VA) recovery.

Methods

This is a retrospective single-centre observational study. Electronic medical records and retinal imaging of patients with a diagnosis of MEWDS with a minimum follow-up of 3 months were reviewed. Patients were categorised into three groups according to the VA at presentation and at the last visit: group 1 >0.48 logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (LogMAR), group 2 ≤0.48 and ≥0.18 LogMAR and group 3 <0.18 LogMAR. All patients had non-invasive multimodal imaging including optical coherence tomography, near-infrared reflectance imaging and blue fundus autofluorescence at presentation and during follow-up.

Results

A total of 51 eyes from 51 patients (41 women, mean age 29.8±7.8 years) were included. Significantly more patients presented in the autumn (X2=8.69, p=0.034). The percentage of eyes recovering vision to 0.0 LogMAR or better was 80.3% (41/51). Worse presenting vision and young age at presentation were independent significant predictive variables for poorer final VA (p=0.002 and p=0.02, respectively). No imaging features were significantly predictive of complete versus incomplete recovery, but disc hyperfluorescence on fluorescein angiography was more common in those with incomplete recovery.

Conclusions

Although the majority of cases have a benign prognosis, the clinical spectrum of MEWDS includes incomplete visual recovery. In our series, poor presenting VA and young age were associated with poor VA outcome. Further study is warranted to confirm these findings.

Revisiting the association between temperature and COVID-19 transmissibility across 117 countries

There is a robust and significant negative association between #COVID19 transmissibility and ambient temperature at the country level. An increase of 1°C in temperature is associated with a decrease in the prevalence of COVID-19 by ∼5.4%. https://bit.ly/32OTBiS.

Understanding COVID-19 in the light of epidemic disease described in Unani medicine

Unani system of medicine is based on the humoral theory postulated by Hippocrates, according to him the state of body health and disease are regulated by qualitative and quantitative equilibrium of four humours. Amraz-e-Waba is an umbrella term which is used in Unani medicine for all types of epidemics (smallpox, measles, plague, Hameer Saifi, influenza, Nipaha, Ebola, Zika, and 2019 novel coronavirus, etc.) mostly fatal in nature. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a severe acute respiratory infection, and the pathogenesis and clinical features resemble with those of Nazla-e-Wabaiya (influenza) and Zatul Riya (pneumonia) which were well described many years ago in Unani text such as high-grade fever, headache, nausea and vomiting, running nose, dry cough, respiratory distress, alternate and small pulse, asthenia, foul smell from breath, insomnia, frothy stool, syncope, coldness in both upper and lower extremities, etc. The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a global emergency pandemic. Unani scholars like Hippocrates (370-460 BC), Galen (130-200 AD), Rhazes (865-925 AD), and Avicenna (980-1037 AD) had described four etiological factors for Amraz-e-Waba viz., change in quality of air, water, Earth, and celestial bodies, accordingly mentioned various preventive measures to be adopted during epidemics such as restriction of movement, isolation or "quarantena", and fumigation with loban (Styrax benzoin W. G. Craib ex Hartwich.), sandalwood (Santalum album L.), Zafran (Crocus sativus L.), myrtle (Myrtus communis L.), and roses (Rosa damascena Mill.) and use of vinegar (sirka) and antidotes (Tiryaq) as prophylaxis, and avoiding consumption of milk, oil, sweet, meat, and alcohol. This review focuses and elaborates on the concept, prevention, and probable management of COVID-19 in the light of Amraz-e-Waba.

Understanding COVID-19 in the light of epidemic disease described in Unani medicine

Unani system of medicine is based on the humoral theory postulated by Hippocrates, according to him the state of body health and disease are regulated by qualitative and quantitative equilibrium of four humours. Amraz-e-Waba is an umbrella term which is used in Unani medicine for all types of epidemics (smallpox, measles, plague, Hameer Saifi, influenza, Nipaha, Ebola, Zika, and 2019 novel coronavirus, etc.) mostly fatal in nature. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a severe acute respiratory infection, and the pathogenesis and clinical features resemble with those of Nazla-e-Wabaiya (influenza) and Zatul Riya (pneumonia) which were well described many years ago in Unani text such as high-grade fever, headache, nausea and vomiting, running nose, dry cough, respiratory distress, alternate and small pulse, asthenia, foul smell from breath, insomnia, frothy stool, syncope, coldness in both upper and lower extremities, etc. The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a global emergency pandemic. Unani scholars like Hippocrates (370-460 BC), Galen (130-200 AD), Rhazes (865-925 AD), and Avicenna (980-1037 AD) had described four etiological factors for Amraz-e-Waba viz., change in quality of air, water, Earth, and celestial bodies, accordingly mentioned various preventive measures to be adopted during epidemics such as restriction of movement, isolation or "quarantena", and fumigation with loban (Styrax benzoin W. G. Craib ex Hartwich.), sandalwood (Santalum album L.), Zafran (Crocus sativus L.), myrtle (Myrtus communis L.), and roses (Rosa damascena Mill.) and use of vinegar (sirka) and antidotes (Tiryaq) as prophylaxis, and avoiding consumption of milk, oil, sweet, meat, and alcohol. This review focuses and elaborates on the concept, prevention, and probable management of COVID-19 in the light of Amraz-e-Waba.

Why is temperature sensitivity important for the success of common respiratory viruses?

This review explores the idea that temperature sensitivity is an important factor in determining the success of respiratory viruses as human parasites. The review discusses several questions. What is viral temperature sensitivity? At what range of temperatures are common respiratory viruses sensitive? What is the mechanism for their temperature sensitivity? What is the range of temperature along the human airway? What is it that makes respiratory viruses such successful parasites of the human airway? What is the role of temperature sensitivity in respiratory zoonoses? A definition of temperature sensitivity is proposed, as “the property of a virus to replicate poorly or not at all, at the normal body temperature of the host (restrictive temperature), but to replicate well at the lower temperatures found in the upper airway of the host (permissive temperature).” Temperature sensitivity may influence the success of a respiratory virus in several ways. Firstly; by restricting the infection to the upper airways and reducing the chance of systemic infection that may reduce host mobility and increase mortality, and thus limit the spread of the virus. Secondly; by causing a mild upper airway illness with a limited immune response compared to systemic infection, which means that persistent herd immunity does not develop to the same extent as with systemic infections, and re‐infection may occur later. Thirdly; infection of the upper airway triggers local reflex rhinorrhea, coughing and sneezing which aid the exit of the virus from the host and the spread of infection in the community.

Winter Is Coming: A Southern Hemisphere Perspective of the Environmental Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 and the Potential Seasonality of COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 virus infections in humans were first reported in December 2019, the boreal winter. The resulting COVID-19 pandemic was declared by the WHO in March 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 was present in 213 countries and territories, with over 12 million confirmed cases and over half a million attributed deaths. Knowledge of other viral respiratory diseases suggests that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could be modulated by seasonally varying environmental factors such as temperature and humidity. Many studies on the environmental sensitivity of COVID-19 are appearing online, and some have been published in peer-reviewed journals. Initially, these studies raised the hypothesis that climatic conditions would subdue the viral transmission rate in places entering the boreal summer, and that southern hemisphere countries would experience enhanced disease spread. For the latter, the COVID-19 peak would coincide with the peak of the influenza season, increasing misdiagnosis and placing an additional burden on health systems. In this review, we assess the evidence that environmental drivers are a significant factor in the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic, globally and regionally. We critically assessed 42 peer-reviewed and 80 preprint publications that met qualifying criteria. Since the disease has been prevalent for only half a year in the northern, and one-quarter of a year in the southern hemisphere, datasets capturing a full seasonal cycle in one locality are not yet available. Analyses based on space-for-time substitutions, i.e., using data from climatically distinct locations as a surrogate for seasonal progression, have been inconclusive. The reported studies present a strong northern bias. Socio-economic conditions peculiar to the 'Global South' have been omitted as confounding variables, thereby weakening evidence of environmental signals. We explore why research to date has failed to show convincing evidence for environmental modulation of COVID-19, and discuss directions for future research. We conclude that the evidence thus far suggests a weak modulation effect, currently overwhelmed by the scale and rate of the spread of COVID-19. Seasonally modulated transmission, if it exists, will be more evident in 2021 and subsequent years.

Respiratory viruses in pediatric emergency department patients and their family members

Background

Respiratory viral infections account for a substantial fraction of pediatric emergency department (ED) visits. We examined the epidemiological patterns of seven common respiratory viruses in children presenting to EDs with influenza‐like illness (ILI). Additionally, we examined the co‐occurrence of viral infections in the accompanying adults and risk factors associated with the acquisition of these viruses.

Methods

Nasopharyngeal swab were collected from children seeking medical care for ILI and their accompanying adults (Total N = 1315). Study sites included New York Presbyterian, Bellevue, and Tisch hospitals in New York City. PCR using a respiratory viral panel was conducted, and data on symptoms and medical history were collected.

Results

Respiratory viruses were detected in 399 children (62.25%) and 118 (17.5%) accompanying adults. The most frequent pathogen detected was human rhinovirus (HRV) (28.81%). Co‐infection rates were 14.79% in children and 8.47% in adults. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and parainfluenza infections occurred more often in younger children. Influenza and HRV occurred more often in older children. Influenza and coronavirus were mostly isolated in winter and spring, RSV in fall and winter and HRV in fall and spring. Children with HRV were more likely to have history of asthma. Adults with the same virus as their child often accompanied ≤ 2‐year‐old‐positive children and were more likely to be symptomatic compared to adults with different viruses.

Conclusions

Respiratory viruses, while presenting the same suite of symptoms, possess distinct seasonal cycles and affect individuals differently based on a number of identifiable factors, including age and history of asthma.

COVID-19 and climate: global evidence from 117 countries

Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country’s distance from the equator, controlling key confounding factors: air travel, distance to Wuhan, testing intensity, cell phone usage, vehicle concentration, urbanization, and income. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 2.6% increase in cases per million inhabitants (p value <0.001). The Northern hemisphere may see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter.

An increase in absolute latitude by one degree is associated with a 2.6% increase in COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants after controlling for several important factors.

Rotavirus Seasonality: An Application of Singular Spectrum Analysis and Polyharmonic Modeling

The dynamics of many viral infections, including rotaviral infections (RIs), are known to have a complex non-linear, non-stationary structure with strong seasonality indicative of virus and host sensitivity to environmental conditions. However, analytical tools suitable for the identification of seasonal peaks are limited. We introduced a two-step procedure to determine seasonal patterns in RI and examined the relationship between daily rates of rotaviral infection and ambient temperature in cold climates in three Russian cities: Chelyabinsk, Yekaterinburg, and Barnaul from 2005 to 2011. We described the structure of temporal variations using a new class of singular spectral analysis (SSA) models based on the "Caterpillar" algorithm. We then fitted Poisson polyharmonic regression (PPHR) models and examined the relationship between daily RI rates and ambient temperature. In SSA models, RI rates reached their seasonal peaks around 24 February, 5 March, and 12 March (i.e., the 55.17 ± 3.21, 64.17 ± 5.12, and 71.11 ± 7.48 day of the year) in Chelyabinsk, Yekaterinburg, and Barnaul, respectively. Yet, in all three cities, the minimum temperature was observed, on average, to be on 15 January, which translates to a lag between the peak in disease incidence and time of temperature minimum of 38-40 days for Chelyabinsk, 45-49 days in Yekaterinburg, and 56-59 days in Barnaul. The proposed approach takes advantage of an accurate description of the time series data offered by the SSA-model coupled with a straightforward interpretation of the PPHR model. By better tailoring analytical methodology to estimate seasonal features and understand the relationships between infection and environmental conditions, regional and global disease forecasting can be further improved.

Are Community Acquired Respiratory Viral Infections an Underestimated Burden in Hematology Patients?

Despite a plethora of studies demonstrating significant morbidity and mortality due to community-acquired respiratory viral (CRV) infections in intensively treated hematology patients, and despite the availability of evidence-based guidelines for the diagnosis and management of respiratory viral infections in this setting, there is no uniform inclusion of respiratory viral infection management in the clinical hematology routine. Nevertheless, timely diagnosis and systematic management of CRV infections in intensively treated hematology patients has a demonstrated potential to significantly improve outcome. We have briefly summarized the recently published data on CRV infection epidemiology, as well as guidelines on the diagnosis and management of CRV infections in patients intensively treated for hematological malignancies. We have also assessed available treatment options, as well as mentioned novel agents currently in development.

The calendar year fallacy: The danger of reliance on calendar year data in end-of-life capacity and financial planning

Planners, actuaries, and others involved in forecasting capacity and costs must manipulate historical data. Data from calendar/financial year totals have been assumed to be adequate and reliable. This relies on the assumption that year-to-year differences do not arise from patterns concealed in the data. While the seasonal cycle is widely recognized, longer term patterns such as disease outbreaks will act to modify annual demand and costs. Monthly data relating to deaths in local government areas in England and Wales are used to demonstrate curious semipermanent bursts of high behavior. There is no seasonal pattern for the start of these events, and the sudden switch to high deaths can occur at any time, even in immediately adjacent areas. Higher deaths and related demand and costs endure for around 12 months before they suddenly revert to the former level where they stay until the next of these curious high events. In England and Wales (and many other countries), a period of unexplained higher deaths, reduced life expectancy, and health care and life insurance costs since 2011 appears to be coming to an end and looks to have arisen from a coincidence of these events at sub-national level.

Effects of Absolute Humidity, Relative Humidity, Temperature, and Wind Speed on Influenza Activity in Toronto, Ontario, Canada

The occurrence of influenza in different climates has been shown to be associated with multiple meteorological factors. The incidence of influenza has been reported to increase during rainy seasons in tropical climates and during the dry, cold months of winter in temperate climates. This study was designed to explore the role of absolute humidity (AH), relative humidity (RH), temperature, and wind speed (WS) on influenza activity in the Toronto, ON, Canada, area. Environmental data obtained from four meteorological stations in the Toronto area over the period from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015 were linked to patient influenza data obtained for the same locality and period. Data were analyzed using correlation, negative binomial regressions with linear predictors, and splines to capture the nonlinear relationship between exposure and outcomes. Our study found a negative association of both AH and temperature with influenza A and B virus infections. The effect of RH on influenza A and B viruses was controversial. Temperature fluctuation was associated with increased numbers of influenza B virus infections. Influenza virus was less likely to be detected from community patients than from patients tested as part of an institutional outbreak investigation. This could be more indicative of nosocomial transmission rather than climactic factors. The nonlinear nature of the relationship of influenza A virus with temperature and of influenza B virus with AH, RH, and temperature could explain the complexity and variation between influenza A and B virus infections. Predicting influenza activity is important for the timing of implementation of disease prevention and control measures as well as for resource allocation.IMPORTANCE This study examined the relationship between environmental factors and the occurrence of influenza in general. Since the seasonality of influenza A and B viruses is different in most temperate climates, we also examined each influenza virus separately. This study reports a negative association of both absolute humidity and temperature with influenza A and B viruses and tries to understand the controversial effect of RH on influenza A and B viruses. This study reports a nonlinear relation between influenza A and B viruses with temperature and influenza B virus with absolute and relative humidity. The nonlinear nature of these relations could explain the complexity and difference in seasonality between influenza A and B viruses, with the latter predominating later in the season. Separating community-based specimens from those obtained during outbreaks was also a novel approach in this research. These findings provide a further understanding of influenza virus transmission in temperate climates.

Association between viral seasonality and meteorological factors

Numerous viruses can cause upper respiratory tract infections. They often precede serious lower respiratory tract infections. Each virus has a seasonal pattern, with peaks in activity in different seasons. We examined the effects of daily local meteorological data (temperature, relative humidity, “humidity-range” and dew point) from Edinburgh, Scotland on the seasonal variations in viral transmission. We identified the seasonality of rhinovirus, adenovirus, influenza A and B viruses, human parainfluenza viruses 1–3 (HPIV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human metapneumovirus (HMPV) from the 52060 respiratory samples tested between 2009 and 2015 and then confirmed the same by a generalised linear model. We also investigated the relationship between meteorological factors and viral seasonality. Non-enveloped viruses were present throughout the year. Following logistic regression adenovirus, influenza viruses A, B, RSV and HMPV preferred low temperatures; RSV and influenza A virus preferred a narrow “humidity-range” and HPIV type 3 preferred the season with lower humidity. A change (i.e. increase or decrease) in specific meteorological factors is associated with an increase in activity of specific viruses at certain times of the year.

Climatic factors and long-term trends of influenza-like illness rates in The Netherlands, 1970-2016

BACKGROUND

Climatic factors affect the survival and transmissibility of respiratory viruses causing influenza-like illness (ILI), and we hypothesized that changes in absolute humidity and temperature may affect long-term trends of ILI incidence rate in temperate countries. We tested this hypothesis using ILI and meteorological time series in the Netherlands for the period 1970-2016.

METHODS

We described the long-term trends of ILI incidence, absolute humidity and temperature; modelled the association between climatic factors and ILI activity using negative binomial regression models; and assessed the strength of the association between the seasonal average absolute humidity (or temperature) and ILI incidence rate using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

The ILI incidence rate declined from 1970 and reached a minimum in the season 2002-03, but started to increase again from the season 2003-04 onwards. In the negative binominal regression models, the weekly ILI count was inversely associated (p < 0.001) with 0- and 1-week lagged absolute humidity and temperature. After three decades of rising absolute humidity and temperature (1970-2000), the early 2000s represented a trend-reversal point for the climatic time series. The seasonal average ILI incidence rate and absolute humidity (or temperature) were strongly (inversely) correlated.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that climate change may have played a role in the long-term trends of ILI incidence rates in the Netherlands, as we were able to show that lower humidity and temperature in a given week were associated with higher ILI incidence in the next week, there was a clear time point reversal in climatic parameters and ILI rates in the 2000s, and the average annual ILI incidence was inversely related to average annual temperatures and humidity.

Human Neutrophil Defensin-1, -3, and -4 Are Elevated in Nasal Aspirates from Children with Naturally Occurring Adenovirus Infection

Background

Adenoviruses are highly contagious pathogens which cause respiratory disease particularly in children; they may induce severe disease in infants. Human neutrophil peptides (HNPs) have been found to exhibit antiadenoviral activity. Thus, we have investigated HNPs in nasal aspirates (NAs) of children suffering from adenoviral common cold.

Objective

To investigate the release of HNP-1–4 in adenovirus infection and the relationship with self-limiting upper respiratory tract infections.

Methods

Nasal aspirate samples (n=14) were obtained from children (aged 6–12 years) infected with adenovirus between June 2012 and December 2015. Control samples were taken 4 weeks after infection when the children were asymptomatic. Levels of HNPs were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).

Results

There were increased levels of HNP-1, -3, and -4, but not HNP-2, in nasal aspirates (NAs) during adenovirus infections compared to healthy specimens (p ≤ 0.01). Moreover, there was also increase in the neutrophil count, which is a known cell source of HNPs.

Conclusion

Our finding supports the involvement of HNP-1, -3, and -4 in naturally occurring cold in children infected with adenovirus. Because of their known antiviral properties, it is tempting to hypothesize that HNPs might play a protective role in adenovirus-induced respiratory disease; however, this remains to be shown.

Impact of meteorological factors on the emergence of bronchiolitis in North-western Greece

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the relationship between meteorological factors in North-western Greece and the incidence of bronchiolitis.

METHODS

Meteorological data (air temperature and rainfall) for Ioannina city in North-western Greece and medical data from hospitalised patients at University Hospital of Ioannina were collected between January 2002 and December 2013. The association between meteorological factors and rate of hospitalisation due to bronchiolitis was investigated. The data processing was done using the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient and applying the chi-square test at contingency tables of the parameters.

RESULTS

Of the 792 hospitalised cases, 670 related to infants (<1 year) and 122 concerned patients aged 1-2 years old. The disease is more common among boys (59.5%) than girls (40.5%). The disease course through the year has a double variation with a main maximum in March and a main minimum in August. The statistical study showed statistically significant correlation of bronchiolitis with: (a) the temperature parameters on an annual basis; (b) precipitation in autumn and dryness in spring; and (c) with sudden changes in diurnal temperature range on an annual basis.

CONCLUSION

A peak incidence of bronchiolitis was noticed in cold and wet seasons during the five days preceding hospitalisation.

Influence of meteorological conditions on RSV infection in Portugal

Acute viral bronchiolitis is a common cause for infant hospital admissions. Of all etiological agents, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is commonly the most frequent. The present study assesses relationships between atmospheric factors and RSV infections in under 3-year-old patients admitted to the Inpatient Paediatric Service of Vila Real (North of Portugal). For this purpose, (1) clinical files of children admitted with a diagnosis of acute bronchiolitis from September 2005 to December 2015 (>10 years) were scrutinised and (2) local daily temperature/precipitation series, as well as six weather types controlling meteorological conditions in Portugal, were used. Fifty-five percent of all 770 admitted children were effectively infected with a given virus, whilst 48 % (367) were RSV+, i.e. 87 % of virus-infected children were RSV+. The bulk of incidence is verified in the first year of age (82 %, 302), slightly higher in males. RSV outbreaks are typically from December to March, but important inter-annual variability is found in both magnitude and shape. Although no clear connections were found between monthly temperatures/precipitation and RSV outbreaks apart from seasonality, a linkage to wintertime cold spells is apparent on a daily basis. Anomalously low minimum temperatures from the day of admittance back to 10 days before are observed. This relationship is supported by anomalously high occurrences of the E and AA weather types over the same period, which usually trigger dry and cold weather. These findings highlight some predictability in the RSV occurrences, revealing potential for modelling and risk assessments.

Prediction of the respiratory syncitial virus epidemic using climate variables in Bogotá, D.C

lntroduction: The respiratory syncitial virus is one of the most common causes of mortality in children and older adults in the world. Objective: To predict the initial week of outbreaks and to establish the most relevant climate variables using naive Bayes classifiers and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). Materials and methods: The initial dates of the outbreaks in children less than five years old for the period 2005-2010 were obtained for Bogotá, Colombia. We selected the climatological variables using a correlation matrix and we constructed 1,020 models using different climatological variables and data from different weeks previous to the initial outbreak. In addition, we selected models using a six-year period (2005-2010), a four-year period (2005-2008), and a two-year period (2009-2010). We obtained the best predictive models and the most relevant climatological variables to predict the outbreak using naive Bayes classifiers and ROC curves. Results: The best models were those using a two-year period (2009-2010) and week 0, with 52% and 60% of effectiveness, respectively. Humidity was the most frequent variable in the best models (62%). Conclusions: We used naive Bayes classifiers to establish the best models to predict correctly the initial week of the outbreak. Our results suggest that the best models used humidity, wind speed and minimum temperature in outbreaks prediction.