Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets: Conventional vs. Islamic indices using wavelet-based multi-timescales analysis

Do implied volatilities of stock and commodity markets affect conventional & shariah indices differently? An evidence by OVX, GVZ and VIX

The current study aims to investigate how index returns of conventional and shariah indices of the USA, Europe, and Asia are affected by changes in oil prices, gold prices, VIX, gold-VIX, and oil-VIX. In our investigation, we used the S&P 500, S&P Europe 350, S&P Pan Asia, and their relevant shariah counterparts for the USA, Europe, and Asia. To examine how the explanatory factors affect the overall distribution of the explained variables, we used OLS and quantile regression. For the time frame prior to Covid-19, we discover that all volatility indices-OVX, GVZ, and VIX-influence returns of all indices simultaneously, and that all variables-aside from the spot price of oil-have a greater impact during the bear phase according to QR findings. Further, Volatility indices have a greater impact on volatility of index returns during the Covid-19 period. This is largely because the Covid-19 outbreak had a rapid impact on economies all around the world, and the only thing that affected financial markets consistently was high volatility. This is further supported by the findings of BEKK, which demonstrate that volatility extends across all markets and originates from commodities like gold, oil, gold-VIX, and VIX. Evidence for this can be seen in the fact that during the COVID-19 period, stock prices reacted more favorably to oil price volatility than to oil spot prices, which even went negative on April 20, 2020. Because of this, market stability can be promoted by reducing volatility through the prompt dissemination of crucial information, even while governments have little direct control over the prices of significant commodities like gold and crude oil.

Return connectedness and multiscale spillovers across clean energy indices and grain commodity markets around COVID-19 crisis

The aim of this paper is to examine the return connectedness and multiscale spillovers between the Clean Energy Index and the grain commodity market around COVID-19. Using daily data from January 4, 2017 to July 1, 2022, a time-varying parametric vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach is first used to reveal connectedness patterns before and during COVID-19. We further used Baruník and Křehlík (2018)'s frequency domain spillover method to assess connectedness in different domain horizons. Our results show spillover effects over time and frequency, with COVID-19 significantly affecting the connectedness of the whole system. Dynamic connectedness peaks significantly after sudden bursts of COVID-19, validating the reported uncertainty. We also documented higher spillover levels in the short term than in the medium and long term. In addition, We find that (i) most clean energy indices are positively affected by the COVID-19 outbreak; (ii) the NASDAQ OMX Bio/Clean Fuels Index and NASDAQ OMX Geothermal Index send spillovers to all grain commodities throughout the sample period, while the WilderHill Clean Energy Index and NASDAQ OMX Wind Energy Index indices are the largest recipients of spillovers from other markets regardless of time horizon; (iii) the OMX Bio/Clean Fuels and OMX Geothermal Energy indices dominate spillover shocks to grain commodity markets. This is the first study to analyse the connectedness and time-frequency dynamics of returns in the green energy index and the grain commodity market. These results provide valuable insights to investors and key policymakers, especially at a time of more significant uncertainty.

Co-movement between Covid-19 and G20 stock market returns: A time and frequency analysis

In our study, we employ DCC-GARCH and Wavelet coherence analysis to examine the co-movement between global covid-19 indicators (cases, recoveries and deaths) and stock returns of main equity markets in G20 countries using daily data spanning between February 2, 2020 and August 28, 2021. Our empirical results show that the co-movement between COVID-19 and G20 stock returns has been switching between negative and positive correlations across the entire time window. The wavelet coherence analysis further reveal that negative (positive) co-movements predominantly exist as lower (higher frequencies) for cases and deaths and are more mixed for recoveries. The findings also show that the short-frequency components correspond to periods around the initial announcement of the initial pandemic and also around the announced of subsequent variants of the COVID-19 virus. Policy and market implications from our study are also discussed.

Performances of leading Islamic finance markets prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic

The recent COVID-19 pandemic or Global Health Crisis (GFH) has distorted the normal functioning of the global economies and financial markets. Previous research has shown that Islamic equities were relatively more stable than conventional ones during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). So, this study aims to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the performance and co-movement of the leading Islamic finance markets by employing MGARCH-DCC on daily frequency data spanning from January 01, 2017 to October 22, 2021. The findings suggest that, as expected, the pandemic outbreak has increased the volatility across the sample markets, but it faded relatively soon, indicating that Islamic equities carry hedging features and offer portfolio diversification benefits to investors. Moreover, the sample countries are less correlated during the sample period than expected. The findings have important implications for policymakers and diverse investors deciding on portfolio diversification. Global ethical and Islamic investors, including fund managers, could benefit by focusing on more stable markets and building optimal portfolios of Shari'ah-complaint equities during turbulent market conditions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Markov Switching Approach in Assessing Oil Price and Stock Market Nexus in the Last Decade: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

We revisit the oil price and stock market nexus by considering the impact of major economic shocks in the post-global financial crisis (GFC) scenario. Our breakpoint unit root test and Markov switching regression (MRS) analyses using West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price and Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) market index show that among the major economic events, the recent coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is the most significant contributor to market volatilities. Furthermore, our MRS results show that the relationship between oil price and the stock market is regime-dependent; the stock market experiences substantial and positive shocks in a volatile oil price regime. Our results provide valuable insights to investors and policymakers regarding risk management and financial market stability during economic crisis periods, specifically during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Transfer Entropy Granger Causality between News Indices and Stock Markets in U.S. and Latin America during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The relationship between three different groups of COVID-19 news series and stock market volatility for several Latin American countries and the U.S. are analyzed. To confirm the relationship between these series, a maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) was applied to determine the specific periods wherein each pair of series is significantly correlated. To determine if the news series cause Latin American stock markets’ volatility, a one-sided Granger causality test based on transfer entropy (GC-TE) was applied. The results confirm that the U.S. and Latin American stock markets react differently to COVID-19 news. Some of the most statistically significant results were obtained from the reporting case index (RCI), A-COVID index, and uncertainty index, in that order, which are statistically significant for the majority of Latin American stock markets. Altogether, the results suggest these COVID-19 news indices could be used to forecast stock market volatility in the U.S. and Latin America.

How resilient are Islamic financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic?

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a massive disruption to the finance sector. Islamic financial markets are no exception. We explore the resilience of Islamic financial markets to the COVID-19 pandemic vis-à-vis conventional markets. A comparative analysis of the impact of the first and second waves of COVID-19 is also conducted. We use five Dow Jones Islamic stock indices and two bond indices and their conventional counterparts as proxies of Islamic and conventional financial markets. Using wavelet, wavelet-based Granger causality, hedge ratio, optimal weights, and hedging effectiveness methods from January 1, 2019, to February 26, 2021, our empirical estimates indicate that both Islamic and conventional stock indices are almost similarly affected by the extreme market turbulence triggered by COVID-19. Hence, Islamic stock markets fail to provide diversification benefits. We also unveil no significant differences between the first and second waves of COVID-19 in the case of dependency. Conversely, Islamic bonds exhibit low dependence on their conventional counterparts, indicating their diversification benefits. We further demonstrate that Islamic and conventional bond pairs could be utilized as a strong portfolio mix because the least hedging cost and highest hedging effectiveness are observed in those portfolios, especially during COVID-19. Overall, our results suggest that global Sukuk offers more resilience in times of extreme market turmoil than other instruments considered in this study. Our findings present global investors and regulators with new insights on diversification and hedging strategy with Islamic finance during a worldwide, severe economic crisis. We present some policy recommendations in creating a more sustainable financial system post-COVID-19.

Are Islamic investments still safe assets during the COVID‐19 pandemic?

While looking for safe‐haven assets, the literature obtained mixed and varying results, changing from one period to the next, or one geographical area to another. Recently, this field of research grew even more, motivated by the changing environment resulting from the global financial crisis and the current COVID‐19 pandemic. We compare five Islamic and five conventional leading financial indexes for the period 2004–2020, covering both global and regional data (Asia‐Pacific, Europe, GCC, and the United States). By employing DCC GARCH and extended GARCH (1,1) models, we find a lower volatility and higher persistence in Islamic indexes when compared to their conventional alternatives, holding also when traditional safe‐haven assets are included in comparative terms and across geographical areas. We therefore provide robust evidence on the consistent behavior of Islamic assets: Their defensive properties remain and are even stronger in the current unprecedented and ongoing crisis.

COVID-19 and bank performance in dual-banking countries: an empirical analysis

We explore how banks' income and stock prices respond to the COVID-19 policy measures in countries with the dual-banking system, and whether Islamic banks over- or underperform compared to conventional banks. Applying two-way fixed-effect regressions, we document that the changes in Islamic banks' finance income as well as net income decline as much during the COVID-19 pandemic as the changes in interest and net income of conventional banks. Event-study tests show that the stock prices of Islamic banks respond as negatively as the ones of conventional banks to workplace closures. We do, however, document that the two types of banks respond differently to income support schemes. The change in Islamic banks' finance income and net income increase significantly more compared to that of their conventional peers when governments install income support initiatives. Also, Islamic banks' stock prices respond more positively to the income support programs than the ones of conventional banks. Because we control for investment banking activities and services to large clients, our findings on the stronger response of Islamic banks to income support programs seem to result from Islamic banks' focus on private customers who are supported during the pandemic. Overall, we conclude that the Shariah compliance does not limit the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis on Islamic banking, but that Islamic banks' performance responds more positively to income support initiatives than the one of conventional banks.

The performance of Islamic versus conventional stocks during the COVID-19 shock: Evidence from firm-level data

In this study, we extend the recently heated debate that compares the performance of Shariah compliant equities with their non-Shariah compliant counterparts especially during the Covid-19 shock. Unlike the existing literature, which uses stock market index level data to reach controversial conclusions, we use firm-level stock returns data to find robust evidence that Shariah compliant stocks outperformed their conventional counterparts during the Covid-19 market meltdown. More specifically, we find that the prices of Shariah compliant stocks reacted to the increase in Coronavirus confirmed cases and government social distancing measures with lower negative returns than the prices of non-Shariah compliant stocks. Overall, our findings imply that Shariah compliant stocks fared better during the Covid-19 crisis episode.

A cross-country analysis on diversification, Sukuk investment, and the performance of Islamic banking systems under the COVID-19 pandemic

This study investigates the relationship between diversification and Islamic banking systems' performance under the impact of the COVID-19 turmoil using a sample of 24 countries from 2013Q4 and 2020Q4. The findings indicate that the performance of Islamic banking systems is positively associated with sectoral diversification of Shari'ah-compliant financing and income diversification. Although this study confirms a negative impact of the COVID-19 shock, income diversification is found to mitigate the adverse effect of this health crisis on the performance of the Islamic banking systems. In which, Sukuk investment is considered an essential channel for pursuing this diversification strategy. Therefore, this research has important implications for policymakers, managers, and academics.

The consequence of the credit risk on the financial performance in light of COVID-19: Evidence from Islamic versus conventional banks across MEA region

Purpose

The increased number of nonperforming loans (NPLs) during COVID-19 pandemic has interrogated the robustness of banks and stability of the whole banking segment. We examine the impact of credit risk (CR) on financial performance (FP) by comparing Islamic banks (IBs) to conventional banks (CBs). We also investigate the influence of COVID-19 on this association.

Design/methodology/approach

Our sample includes the largest 200 banks across 15 countries from the Middle East and the Africa (MEA) region over a four-year period (2018–2021). Panel ordinary least squares (OLS) with fixed and random effects were used.

Findings

We find a negative association between NPLs and FP for IBs and CBs. We reveal that COVID-19 is partially mediated the association between NPLs and FP in case of the whole sample and separated sample of CBs while not in case of IBs.

Originality

The evidence of CR and FP on samples of financial sector across MEA region has not been studied in the era of COVID-19 as far as we know.

Research limitations/implications

This study contributes to the knowledge of the risk and financial performance during the crisis nexus and provides information that is valued to bankers, academics, managers and regulators for policy formulation.

Dependence dynamics of Islamic and conventional equity sectors: What do we learn from the decoupling hypothesis and COVID-19 pandemic?

The recent COVID-19 pandemic intensification generates a different set of challenges for global financial markets and portfolio management strategies. This paper uses network analysis to investigate the static and dynamic dependence within Islamic and conventional equity sectors. The study focuses on the decoupling hypothesis and how the dependence among sectors changes during COVID19. Empirical findings indicate a higher degree of spillover during the COVID19 sub-period. Islamic and conventional equities behave differently in terms of industry-level dependence during normal and crisis times, thus decoupling. Further, the dependence effect between conventional equity returns is stronger than Islamic equity returns during the COVID-19 pandemic. The finding of this paper has several significant implications for portfolio selection and risk management. Portfolios consisting of Islamic equity sectors including industrials, basic materials, consumer services, and technologies highlight low-diversification benefits across the entire sample period. Also, investment exposure to less connected Islamic and conventional equity sectors provides a good diversification strategy.

Does bitcoin provide hedge to Islamic stock markets for pre- and during COVID-19 outbreak? A comparative analysis with gold

This paper applies the DCC-FIGARCH model to investigate the role of Bitcoin as a hedge and safe haven for Islamic stock markets in comparison with gold. We use daily data for the period January 2010-May 2020, which covers the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Empirical results show that the dynamic correlation between Bitcoin and Islamic stock markets is low and usually negative during major economic and political events suggesting that Bitcoin qualifies as a safe haven against Islamic stock markets downturns. Extending our analysis to portfolio management, findings reveal that the diversification benefits of Bitcoin are most times stable and increase significantly during turbulent periods. Thereby, adding Bitcoin in a portfolio of Islamic stocks reduce the risk of portfolio. Finally, as regards the COVID-19 outbreak period, we find that the hedging strategy involving Bitcoin leads to a higher cost during the crisis. These results provide substantial recommendations for Islamic investors and portfolio managers.

Are safe haven assets really safe during the 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic?

This study evaluates the safe-haven role of twelve assets against the US stock market during the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show that silver and the Islamic stock index were safe havens during the 2008 GFC, and the Islamic stock index and Tether have been safe havens during COVID-19. We observe that the Islamic stock index and Tether have emerged as strong new safe havens. However, our supplementary analysis reveals that gold and Bitcoin still exhibit safe-haven behavior during severe market downturns. Overall, our findings suggest that safe-haven assets may vary over time.