Prediction of post-surgical seizure outcome in left mesial temporal lobe epilepsy

Predictive models of epilepsy outcomes

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Multiple complex medical decisions are necessary in the course of a chronic disease like epilepsy. Predictive tools to assist physicians and patients in navigating this complexity have emerged as a necessity and are summarized in this review.

RECENT FINDINGS

Nomograms and online risk calculators are user-friendly and offer individualized predictions for outcomes ranging from safety of antiseizure medication withdrawal (accuracy 65-73%) to seizure-freedom, naming, mood, and language outcomes of resective epilepsy surgery (accuracy 72-81%). Improving their predictive performance is limited by the nomograms' inability to ingest complex data inputs. Conversely, machine learning offers the potential of multimodal and expansive model inputs achieving human-expert level accuracy in automated scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) interpretation but lagging in predictive performance or requiring validation for other applications.

SUMMARY

Good to excellent predictive models are now available to guide medical and surgical epilepsy decision-making with nomograms offering individualized predictions and user-friendly tools, and machine learning approaches offering the potential of improved performance. Future research is necessary to bridge the two approaches for optimal translation to clinical care.

Predicting seizure outcome after epilepsy surgery: Do we need more complex models, larger samples, or better data?

OBJECTIVE

The accurate prediction of seizure freedom after epilepsy surgery remains challenging. We investigated if (1) training more complex models, (2) recruiting larger sample sizes, or (3) using data-driven selection of clinical predictors would improve our ability to predict postoperative seizure outcome using clinical features. We also conducted the first substantial external validation of a machine learning model trained to predict postoperative seizure outcome.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 797 children who had undergone resective or disconnective epilepsy surgery at a tertiary center. We extracted patient information from medical records and trained three models-a logistic regression, a multilayer perceptron, and an XGBoost model-to predict 1-year postoperative seizure outcome on our data set. We evaluated the performance of a recently published XGBoost model on the same patients. We further investigated the impact of sample size on model performance, using learning curve analysis to estimate performance at samples up to N = 2000. Finally, we examined the impact of predictor selection on model performance.

RESULTS

Our logistic regression achieved an accuracy of 72% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 68%-75%, area under the curve [AUC] = .72), whereas our multilayer perceptron and XGBoost both achieved accuracies of 71% (95% CIMLP  = 67%-74%, AUCMLP  = .70; 95% CIXGBoost own  = 68%-75%, AUCXGBoost own  = .70). There was no significant difference in performance between our three models (all p > .4) and they all performed better than the external XGBoost, which achieved an accuracy of 63% (95% CI = 59%-67%, AUC = .62; pLR  = .005, pMLP  = .01, pXGBoost own  = .01) on our data. All models showed improved performance with increasing sample size, but limited improvements beyond our current sample. The best model performance was achieved with data-driven feature selection.

SIGNIFICANCE

We show that neither the deployment of complex machine learning models nor the assembly of thousands of patients alone is likely to generate significant improvements in our ability to predict postoperative seizure freedom. We instead propose that improved feature selection alongside collaboration, data standardization, and model sharing is required to advance the field.

Artificial Intelligence in Neurosurgery: A State-of-the-Art Review from Past to Future

In recent years, there has been a significant surge in discussions surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), along with a corresponding increase in its practical applications in various facets of everyday life, including the medical industry. Notably, even in the highly specialized realm of neurosurgery, AI has been utilized for differential diagnosis, pre-operative evaluation, and improving surgical precision. Many of these applications have begun to mitigate risks of intraoperative and postoperative complications and post-operative care. This article aims to present an overview of the principal published papers on the significant themes of tumor, spine, epilepsy, and vascular issues, wherein AI has been applied to assess its potential applications within neurosurgery. The method involved identifying high-cited seminal papers using PubMed and Google Scholar, conducting a comprehensive review of various study types, and summarizing machine learning applications to enhance understanding among clinicians for future utilization. Recent studies demonstrate that machine learning (ML) holds significant potential in neuro-oncological care, spine surgery, epilepsy management, and other neurosurgical applications. ML techniques have proven effective in tumor identification, surgical outcomes prediction, seizure outcome prediction, aneurysm prediction, and more, highlighting its broad impact and potential in improving patient management and outcomes in neurosurgery. This review will encompass the current state of research, as well as predictions for the future of AI within neurosurgery.

New insights for predicting surgery outcome in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. A systematic review

Resective surgery is the treatment of choice for one-third of adult patients with focal, drug-resistant epilepsy. This procedure is associated with substantial clinical and cognitive risks. In clinical practice, there is no validated model for epilepsy surgery outcome prediction (ESOP). Meta-analyses on ESOP studies assessing prognostic factors report discrepancies in terms of study design. Our review aims to systematically investigate methodological and analytical aspects of studies predicting clinical and cognitive outcomes after temporal lobe epilepsy surgery. A systematic review of ESOP studies published between 2000 and 2022 from three databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science, and PsycINFO) was completed by following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. It yielded 4867 articles. Among them, 21 corresponded to our inclusion criteria and were therefore retained in the final review. The risk of bias was assessed using A Tool to Assess Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies (PROBAST). Data extracted from the 21 studies were analyzed using narrative synthesis and descriptive statistics. Our findings show an increase in the use of multimodal datasets and machine learning analyses in recent ESOP studies, although regression remained the most frequently used approach. We also identified a more frequent use of network notions in recent ESOP studies. Nevertheless, several methodological issues were noted, such as small sample sizes, lack of information on the follow-up period, variability in seizure outcome, and the definition of neuropsychological postoperative change. Of 21 studies, only one provided a clinical tool to anticipate the cognitive outcome after epilepsy surgery. We conclude that methodological issues should be overcome before we move towards more complete models to better predict clinical and cognitive outcomes after epilepsy surgery. Recommendations for future studies to harness the possibilities of multimodal datasets and data fusion, are provided. A stronger bridge between fundamental and clinical research may result in developing accessible clinical tools.

Pre-surgical features of intrinsic brain networks predict single and joint epilepsy surgery outcomes

Despite the effectiveness of surgical interventions for the treatment of intractable focal temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), the substrates that support good outcomes are poorly understood. While algorithms have been developed for the prediction of either seizure or cognitive/psychiatric outcomes alone, no study has reported on the functional and structural architecture that supports joint outcomes. We measured key aspects of pre-surgical whole brain functional/structural network architecture and evaluated their ability to predict post-operative seizure control in combination with cognitive/psychiatric outcomes. Pre-surgically, we identified the intrinsic connectivity networks (ICNs) unique to each person through independent component analysis (ICA), and computed: (1) the spatial-temporal match between each person's ICA components and established, canonical ICNs, (2) the connectivity strength within each identified person-specific ICN, (3) the gray matter (GM) volume underlying the person-specific ICNs, and (4) the amount of variance not explained by the canonical ICNs for each person. Post-surgical seizure control and reliable change indices of change (for language [naming, phonemic fluency], verbal episodic memory, and depression) served as binary outcome responses in random forest (RF) models. The above functional and structural measures served as input predictors. Our empirically derived ICN-based measures customized to the individual showed that good joint seizure and cognitive/psychiatric outcomes depended upon higher levels of brain reserve (GM volume) in specific networks. In contrast, singular outcomes relied on systematic, idiosyncratic variance in the case of seizure control, and the weakened pre-surgical presence of functional ICNs that encompassed the ictal temporal lobe in the case of cognitive/psychiatric outcomes. Our data made clear that the ICNs differed in their propensity to provide reserve for adaptive outcomes, with some providing structural (brain), and others functional (cognitive) reserve. Our customized methodology demonstrated that when substantial unique, patient-specific ICNs are present prior to surgery there is a reliable association with poor post-surgical seizure control. These ICNs are idiosyncratic in that they did not match the canonical, normative ICNs and, therefore, could not be defined functionally, with their location likely varying by patient. This important finding suggested the level of highly individualized ICN's in the epileptic brain may signal the emergence of epileptogenic activity after surgery.

Machine Learning for Precision Epilepsy Surgery

Brain surgery offers the best chance of seizure-freedom for patients with focal drug-resistant epilepsy, but only 50% achieve sustained seizure-freedom. With the explosion of data collected during routine presurgical evaluations and recent advances in computational science, we now have a tremendous potential to achieve precision epilepsy surgery: a data-driven tailoring of surgical planning. This review highlights the clinical need, the relevant computational science focusing on machine learning, and discusses some specific applications in epilepsy surgery.

Can Presurgical Interhemispheric EEG Connectivity Predict Outcome in Hemispheric Surgery? A Brain Machine Learning Approach

OBJECTIVES

Hemispherotomy (HT) is a surgical option for treatment of drug-resistant seizures due to hemispheric structural lesions. Factors affecting seizure outcome have not been fully clarified. In our study, we used a brain Machine Learning (ML) approach to evaluate the possible role of Inter-hemispheric EEG Connectivity (IC) in predicting post-surgical seizure outcome.

METHODS

We collected 21 pediatric patients with drug-resistant epilepsy; who underwent HT in our center from 2009 to 2020; with a follow-up of at least two years. We selected 5-s windows of wakefulness and sleep pre-surgical EEG and we trained Artificial Neuronal Network (ANN) to estimate epilepsy outcome. We extracted EEG features as input data and selected the ANN with best accuracy.

RESULTS

Among 21 patients, 15 (71%) were seizure and drug-free at last follow-up. ANN showed 73.3% of accuracy, with 85% of seizure free and 40% of non-seizure free patients appropriately classified.

CONCLUSIONS

The accuracy level that we reached supports the hypothesis that pre-surgical EEG features may have the potential to predict epilepsy outcome after HT.

SIGNIFICANCE

The role of pre-surgical EEG data in influencing seizure outcome after HT is still debated. We proposed a computational predictive model, with an ML approach, with a high accuracy level.

Machine Learning Approaches for Imaging-Based Prognostication of the Outcome of Surgery for Mesial Temporal Lobe Epilepsy

Objectives

Around 30% of patients undergoing surgical resection for drug‐resistant mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) do not obtain seizure freedom. Success of anterior temporal lobe resection (ATLR) critically depends on the careful selection of surgical candidates, aiming at optimizing seizure freedom while minimizing postoperative morbidity. Structural MRI and FDG‐PET neuroimaging are routinely used in presurgical assessment and guide the decision to proceed to surgery. In this study, we evaluate the potential of machine learning techniques applied to standard presurgical MRI and PET imaging features to provide enhanced prognostic value relative to current practice.

Methods

Eighty two patients with drug resistant MTLE were scanned with FDG‐PET pre‐surgery and T1‐weighted MRI pre‐ and postsurgery. From these images the following features of interest were derived: volume of temporal lobe (TL) hypometabolism, % of extratemporal hypometabolism, presence of contralateral TL hypometabolism, presence of hippocampal sclerosis, laterality of seizure onset volume of tissue resected and % of temporal lobe hypometabolism resected. These measures were used as predictor variables in logistic regression, support vector machines, random forests and artificial neural networks.

Results

In the study cohort, 24 of 82 (28.3%) who underwent an ATLR for drug‐resistant MTLE did not achieve Engel Class I (i.e., free of disabling seizures) outcome at a minimum of 2 years of postoperative follow‐up. We found that machine learning approaches were able to predict up to 73% of the 24 ATLR surgical patients who did not achieve a Class I outcome, at the expense of incorrect prediction for up to 31% of patients who did achieve a Class I outcome. Overall accuracies ranged from 70% to 80%, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of .75–.81. We additionally found that information regarding overall extent of both total and significantly hypometabolic tissue resected was crucial to predictive performance, with AUC dropping to .59–.62 using presurgical information alone. Incorporating the laterality of seizure onset and the choice of machine learning algorithm did not significantly change predictive performance.

Significance

Collectively, these results indicate that "acceptable" to "good" patient‐specific prognostication for drug‐resistant MTLE surgery is feasible with machine learning approaches utilizing commonly collected imaging modalities, but that information on the surgical resection region is critical for optimal prognostication.

Machine learning models for decision support in epilepsy management: A critical review

PURPOSE

There remain major challenges for the clinician in managing patients with epilepsy effectively. Choosing anti-seizure medications (ASMs) is subject to trial and error. About one-third of patients have drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE). Surgery may be considered for selected patients, but time from diagnosis to surgery averages 20 years. We reviewed the potential use of machine learning (ML) predictive models as clinical decision support tools to help address some of these issues.

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive search of Medline and Embase of studies that investigated the application of ML in epilepsy management in terms of predicting ASM responsiveness, predicting DRE, identifying surgical candidates, and predicting epilepsy surgery outcomes. Original articles addressing these 4 areas published in English between 2000 and 2020 were included.

RESULTS

We identified 24 relevant articles: 6 on ASM responsiveness, 3 on DRE prediction, 2 on identifying surgical candidates, and 13 on predicting surgical outcomes. A variety of potential predictors were used including clinical, neuropsychological, imaging, electroencephalography, and health system claims data. A number of different ML algorithms and approaches were used for prediction, but only one study utilized deep learning methods. Some models show promising performance with areas under the curve above 0.9. However, most were single setting studies (18 of 24) with small sample sizes (median number of patients 55), with the exception of 3 studies that utilized large databases and 3 studies that performed external validation. There was a lack of standardization in reporting model performance. None of the models reviewed have been prospectively evaluated for their clinical benefits.

CONCLUSION

The utility of ML models for clinical decision support in epilepsy management remains to be determined. Future research should be directed toward conducting larger studies with external validation, standardization of reporting, and prospective evaluation of the ML model on patient outcomes.

Automated Identification of Surgical Candidates and Estimation of Postoperative Seizure Freedom in Children - A Focused Review

Surgery is an effective but underused treatment for drug-resistant epilepsy in children. Algorithms to identify surgical candidates and estimate the likelihood of postoperative clinical improvement may be valuable to improve access to epilepsy surgery. We provide a focused review of these approaches. For adults with epilepsy, tools to identify surgical candidates and predict seizure and cognitive outcomes (Ie, Cases for Epilepsy (toolsforepilepsy.com) and Epilepsy Surgery Grading Scale) have been validated and are in use. Analogous tools for children need development. A promising approach is to apply statistical learning tools to clinical datasets, such as electroencephalogram tracings, imaging studies, and the text of clinician notes. Demonstration projects suggest these techniques have the potential to be highly accurate, and await further validation and clinical application.

The use of computational models in the management and prognosis of refractory epilepsy: A critical evaluation

PURPOSE

Drug resistant epilepsy (DRE) affects approximately 30 percent of individuals with epilepsy worldwide. Surgery remains the most effective treatment for individuals with DRE, but referral to surgery is low and only about 60 percent of individuals who undergo surgery experience seizure control postoperatively. The present paper evaluates the evidence for using computational models in the prediction of surgical resection sites and surgical outcomes for patients with DRE.

METHODS

We conducted a search in the Medline data base using the terms "refractory epilepsy", "drug-resistant epilepsy", "surgery", "computational model", and "artificial intelligence". Inclusion: original articles in English and case reports from 2000 to 2020. Reviews were excluded.

RESULTS

Clinical applications of computational models may lead to increased utilisation of surgical services through improving our ability to predict outcomes and by improving surgical outcomes outright. The identification and optimisation of nodes that are crucial for the genesis and propagation of epileptiform activity offers the most promising clinical applications of computational models discussed herein.

CONCLUSION

Advances in computational models may in the future significantly increase the application and efficacy of surgery for patients with DRE by optimising the site and amount of cortex to resect, but more research is needed before it achieves therapeutic utility.

Automated analysis of cortical volume loss predicts seizure outcomes after frontal lobectomy

OBJECTIVE

Patients undergoing frontal lobectomy demonstrate lower seizure-freedom rates than patients undergoing temporal lobectomy and several other resective interventions. We attempted to utilize automated preoperative quantitative analysis of focal and global cortical volume loss to develop predictive volumetric indicators of seizure outcome after frontal lobectomy.

METHODS

Ninety patients who underwent frontal lobectomy were stratified based on seizure freedom at a mean follow-up time of 3.5 (standard deviation [SD] 2.5) years. Automated quantitative analysis of cortical volume loss organized by distinct brain region and laterality was performed on preoperative T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies. Univariate statistical analysis was used to select potential predictors of seizure freedom. Backward variable selection and multivariate logistical regression were used to develop models to predict seizure freedom.

RESULTS

Forty-eight of 90 (53.3%) patients were seizure-free at the last follow-up. Several frontal and extrafrontal brain regions demonstrated statistically significant differences in both volumetric cortical volume loss and volumetric asymmetry between the left and right sides in the seizure-free and non-seizure-free cohorts. A final multivariate logistic model utilizing only preoperative quantitative MRI data to predict seizure outcome was developed with a c-statistic of 0.846. Using both preoperative quantitative MRI data and previously validated clinical predictors of seizure outcomes, we developed a model with a c-statistic of 0.897.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates that preoperative cortical volume loss in both frontal and extrafrontal regions can be predictive of seizure outcome after frontal lobectomy, and models can be developed with excellent predictive capabilities using preoperative MRI data. Automated quantitative MRI analysis can be quickly and reliably performed in patients with frontal lobe epilepsy, and further studies may be developed for integration into preoperative risk stratification.

Gradually evaluating of suicidal risk in depression by semi-supervised cluster analysis on resting-state fMRI

A timely and effective evaluation of the suicidal ideation bears practical meaning, particularly for the depressive who tend to disguise the real suicide intent and without obvious symptoms. Measuring individual ideation of the depression with uncertain or transient suicide crisis is the purpose. Resting-state fMRI data were collected from 78 depressed patients with variable clinical suicidal crisis. Thirty subjects were well labeled as extremely serious individuals with suicide attempters or as without suicidal ideation. A feature mask was constructed via the two sample t-test on their regional conncectivities. Then, a semi-supervised machine learning frame using the feature mask was designed to assist in clarifying gradation of suicidal susceptibility for the residual forty-eight vaguely defined subjects, by a way of Iterative Self-Organizing Data analysis techniques (ISODATA). Such semi-supervised model was designed purposely to block out the effect of disease itself on the suicide intendancy evaluation. The vague-labeled patients were divided into another two different stages relating to their suicidal susceptibility. The distance ratio of each subject to the two well-defined extreme groups in the feature space can be utilized as the suicide risk index. The re-evaluation of the Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk (NGASR) via experts blind to original HAM-D rates was significantly correlated with the model estimation. The constructed model suggested its potential to examine the risk of suicidal in an objective way. The functional connectivity, locating mostly within the frontal-temporal circuit and involving the default mode network (DMN), were well integrated to discriminative the gradual susceptibility of suicidal.

Machine learning applications in epilepsy

Machine learning leverages statistical and computer science principles to develop algorithms capable of improving performance through interpretation of data rather than through explicit instructions. Alongside widespread use in image recognition, language processing, and data mining, machine learning techniques have received increasing attention in medical applications, ranging from automated imaging analysis to disease forecasting. This review examines the parallel progress made in epilepsy, highlighting applications in automated seizure detection from electroencephalography (EEG), video, and kinetic data, automated imaging analysis and pre-surgical planning, prediction of medication response, and prediction of medical and surgical outcomes using a wide variety of data sources. A brief overview of commonly used machine learning approaches, as well as challenges in further application of machine learning techniques in epilepsy, is also presented. With increasing computational capabilities, availability of effective machine learning algorithms, and accumulation of larger datasets, clinicians and researchers will increasingly benefit from familiarity with these techniques and the significant progress already made in their application in epilepsy.

Using Low-Frequency Oscillations to Detect Temporal Lobe Epilepsy with Machine Learning

The National Institutes of Health-sponsored Epilepsy Connectome Project aims to characterize connectivity changes in temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) patients. The magnetic resonance imaging protocol follows that used in the Human Connectome Project, and includes 20 min of resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging acquired at 3T using 8-band multiband imaging. Glasser parcellation atlas was combined with the FreeSurfer subcortical regions to generate resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC), amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (ALFFs), and fractional ALFF measures. Seven different frequency ranges such as Slow-5 (0.01-0.027 Hz) and Slow-4 (0.027-0.073 Hz) were selected to compute these measures. The goal was to train machine learning classification models to discriminate TLE patients from healthy controls, and to determine which combination of the resting state measure and frequency range produced the best classification model. The samples included age- and gender-matched groups of 60 TLE patients and 59 healthy controls. Three traditional machine learning models were trained: support vector machine, linear discriminant analysis, and naive Bayes classifier. The highest classification accuracy was obtained using RSFC measures in the Slow-4 + 5 band (0.01-0.073 Hz) as features. Leave-one-out cross-validation accuracies were ∼83%, with receiver operating characteristic area-under-the-curve reaching close to 90%. Increased connectivity from right area posterior 9-46v in TLE patients contributed to the high accuracies. With increased sample sizes in the near future, better machine learning models will be trained not only to aid the diagnosis of TLE, but also as a tool to understand this brain disorder.

Detection of Surgical Site Infection Utilizing Automated Feature Generation in Clinical Notes

Postsurgical complications (PSCs) are known as a deviation from the normal postsurgical course and categorized by severity and treatment requirements. Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of major PSCs and the most common healthcare-associated infection, resulting in increased length of hospital stay and cost. In this work, we proposed an automated way to generate keyword features using sublanguage analysis with heuristics to detect SSI from cohort in clinical notes and evaluated these keywords with medical experts. To further valid our approach, we also applied different machine learning algorithms on cohort using automatically generated keywords. The results showed that our approach was able to identify SSI keywords from clinical narratives and can be used as a foundation to develop an information extraction system or support search-based natural language processing (NLP) approaches by augmenting search queries.

The impact of epilepsy surgery on the structural connectome and its relation to outcome

Background

Temporal lobe surgical resection brings seizure remission in up to 80% of patients, with long-term complete seizure freedom in 41%. However, it is unclear how surgery impacts on the structural white matter network, and how the network changes relate to seizure outcome.

Methods

We used white matter fibre tractography on preoperative diffusion MRI to generate a structural white matter network, and postoperative T1-weighted MRI to retrospectively infer the impact of surgical resection on this network. We then applied graph theory and machine learning to investigate the properties of change between the preoperative and predicted postoperative networks.

Results

Temporal lobe surgery had a modest impact on global network efficiency, despite the disruption caused. This was due to alternative shortest paths in the network leading to widespread increases in betweenness centrality post-surgery. Measurements of network change could retrospectively predict seizure outcomes with 79% accuracy and 65% specificity, which is twice as high as the empirical distribution. Fifteen connections which changed due to surgery were identified as useful for prediction of outcome, eight of which connected to the ipsilateral temporal pole.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that the use of network change metrics may have clinical value for predicting seizure outcome. This approach could be used to prospectively predict outcomes given a suggested resection mask using preoperative data only.

18F-FDG-PET patterns of surgical success and failure in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy

OBJECTIVE

To search for [¹⁸F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-PET patterns predictive of long-term prognosis in surgery for drug-resistant mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) due to hippocampal sclerosis (HS).

METHODS

We analyzed metabolic data with [¹⁸F]-FDG-PET in 97 patients with MTLE (53 female participants; age range 15-56 years) with unilateral HS (50 left) and compared the metabolic patterns, electroclinical features, and structural atrophy on MRI in patients with the best outcome after anteromesial temporal resection (Engel class IA, completely seizure-free) to those with a non-IA outcome, including suboptimal outcome and failure. Imaging processing was performed with statistical parametric mapping (SPM5).

RESULTS

With a mean follow-up of >6 years (range 2-14 years), 85% of patients achieved a class I outcome, including 45% in class IA. Class IA outcome was associated with a focal anteromesial temporal hypometabolism, whereas non-IA outcome correlated with extratemporal metabolic changes that differed according to the lateralization: ipsilateral mesial frontal and perisylvian hypometabolism in right HS and contralateral fronto-insular hypometabolism and posterior white matter hypermetabolism in left HS. Suboptimal outcome presented a metabolic pattern similar to the best outcome but with a larger involvement of extratemporal areas, including the contralateral side in left HS. Failure was characterized by a mild temporal involvement sparing the hippocampus and relatively high extratemporal hypometabolism on both sides. These findings were concordant with electroclinical features reflecting the organization of the epileptogenic zone but were independent of the structural abnormalities detected on MRI.

CONCLUSIONS

[¹⁸F]-FDG-PET patterns help refine the prognostic factors in MTLE and should be implemented in predictive models for epilepsy surgery.

Deep brain stimulation of the anterior nucleus of the thalamus reverses the gene expression of cytokines and their receptors as well as neuronal degeneration in epileptic rats

BACKGROUND

Deep brain stimulation of the anterior nucleus of the thalamus (ANT-DBS) is effective in seizure control. However, the mechanisms remain unclear.

METHODS

Sixty-four rats were randomly assigned to the control group, the kainic acid (KA) group, the sham-DBS group and the DBS group. Video-electroencephalogram (EEG) was used to monitor seizures. Quantitative real time PCR (qPCR) was applied for detecting interleukin-1 beta (IL-1β), IL-1 receptor (IL-1R), IL-6, IL-6 receptor (IL-6R), gp130, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), TNF-receptor 1 (TNF-R1) and TNF-receptor 2 (TNF-R2) expression 12h after the establishment of an epileptic model. The neuronal structural degeneration in the hippocampus was evaluated with transmission electron microscopy (TEM) at this same time point.

RESULTS

The seizure frequency was 48.6% lower in the DBS group compared with the sham-DBS group (P<0.01). The expression of IL-1β, IL-1R, IL-6, IL-6R, gp130, TNF-α and TNF-R1 was elevated in both the KA and the sham group compared with the control group (all Ps<0.01). Additionally, ANT-DBS was able to reverse this gene expression pattern in the DBS group compared with the sham-DBS group (all Ps<0.01). There was no significant difference in TNF-R2 expression among the four groups. The neuronal structural degeneration in the KA group and the sham-DBS group was more severe than that in the control group (injury scores, all Ps<0.01). ANT-DBS was also capable of relieving the degeneration compared with the sham-DBS group (injury score, P<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that ANT-DBS can reduce seizure frequency in the early stage in epileptic rats as well as relieve the pro-inflammatory state and neuronal injury, which may be one of the most effective mechanisms of ANT-DBS against epileptogenesis.

Predicting neurosurgical outcomes in focal epilepsy patients using computational modelling

See Eissa and Schevon (doi:10.1093/aww332) for a scientific commentary on this article.

Surgery can be a last resort for patients with intractable, medically refractory epilepsy. For many of these patients, however, there is substantial risk that the surgery will be ineffective. The prediction of who is likely to benefit from a surgical approach is crucial for being able to inform patients better, conduct principled prospective clinical trials, and ultimately tailor therapeutic approaches to these patients more effectively. Dynamical computational models, informed with patient data, can be used to make predictions and give mechanistic insight. In this study, we develop patient-specific dynamical network models of epileptogenic cortex. We infer the network connectivity matrix from non-seizure electrographic recordings of patients and use these connectivity matrices as the network structure in our model. The model simulates the dynamics of a bi-stable switch at every node in this network, meaning that every node starts in a background state, but has the ability to transit to a co-existing seizure state. Whether a transition happens in a node is partly determined by the stochastic nature of the input to the node, but also by the input the node receives from other connected nodes in the network. By conducting simulations with such a model, we can detect the average transition time for nodes in a given network, and therefore define nodes with a short transition time as highly epileptogenic. In a retrospective study, we found that in some patients the regions with high epileptogenicity in the model overlap with those identified clinically as the seizure onset zone. Moreover, it was found that the resection of these regions in the model reduces the overall likelihood of a seizure. Following removal of these regions in the model, we predicted surgical outcomes and compared these to actual patient outcomes. Our predictions were found to be 81.3% accurate on a dataset of 16 patients with intractable epilepsy. Intriguingly, in patients with unsuccessful outcomes, the proposed computational approach is able to suggest alternative resection sites. The model presented here gives mechanistic insight as to why surgery may be unsuccessful in some patients. This may aid clinicians in presurgical evaluation by providing a tool to explore various surgical options, offering complementary information to existing clinical techniques.

Identifying a clinical signature of suicidality among patients with mood disorders: A pilot study using a machine learning approach

OBJECTIVE

A growing body of evidence has put forward clinical risk factors associated with patients with mood disorders that attempt suicide. However, what is not known is how to integrate clinical variables into a clinically useful tool in order to estimate the probability of an individual patient attempting suicide.

METHOD

A total of 144 patients with mood disorders were included. Clinical variables associated with suicide attempts among patients with mood disorders and demographic variables were used to 'train' a machine learning algorithm. The resulting algorithm was utilized in identifying novel or 'unseen' individual subjects as either suicide attempters or non-attempters. Three machine learning algorithms were implemented and evaluated.

RESULTS

All algorithms distinguished individual suicide attempters from non-attempters with prediction accuracy ranging between 65% and 72% (p<0.05). In particular, the relevance vector machine (RVM) algorithm correctly predicted 103 out of 144 subjects translating into 72% accuracy (72.1% sensitivity and 71.3% specificity) and an area under the curve of 0.77 (p<0.0001). The most relevant predictor variables in distinguishing attempters from non-attempters included previous hospitalizations for depression, a history of psychosis, cocaine dependence and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) comorbidity.

CONCLUSION

Risk for suicide attempt among patients with mood disorders can be estimated at an individual subject level by incorporating both demographic and clinical variables. Future studies should examine the performance of this model in other populations and its subsequent utility in facilitating selection of interventions to prevent suicide.

Multimodal data and machine learning for surgery outcome prediction in complicated cases of mesial temporal lobe epilepsy

BACKGROUND

This study sought to predict postsurgical seizure freedom from pre-operative diagnostic test results and clinical information using a rapid automated approach, based on supervised learning methods in patients with drug-resistant focal seizures suspected to begin in temporal lobe.

METHOD

We applied machine learning, specifically a combination of mutual information-based feature selection and supervised learning classifiers on multimodal data, to predict surgery outcome retrospectively in 20 presurgical patients (13 female; mean age±SD, in years 33±9.7 for females, and 35.3±9.4 for males) who were diagnosed with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) and subsequently underwent standard anteromesial temporal lobectomy. The main advantage of the present work over previous studies is the inclusion of the extent of ipsilateral neocortical gray matter atrophy and spatiotemporal properties of depth electrode-recorded seizures as training features for individual patient surgery planning.

RESULTS

A maximum relevance minimum redundancy (mRMR) feature selector identified the following features as the most informative predictors of postsurgical seizure freedom in this study's sample of patients: family history of epilepsy, ictal EEG onset pattern (positive correlation with seizure freedom), MRI-based gray matter thickness reduction in the hemisphere ipsilateral to seizure onset, proportion of seizures that first appeared in ipsilateral amygdala to total seizures, age, epilepsy duration, delay in the spread of ipsilateral ictal discharges from site of onset, gender, and number of electrode contacts at seizure onset (negative correlation with seizure freedom). Using these features in combination with a least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) classifier compared to other commonly used classifiers resulted in very high surgical outcome prediction accuracy (95%).

CONCLUSIONS

Supervised machine learning using multimodal compared to unimodal data accurately predicted postsurgical outcome in patients with atypical MTLE.

Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for treatment outcome prediction in patients with epilepsy based on structural connectome data

The objective of this study is to evaluate machine learning algorithms aimed at predicting surgical treatment outcomes in groups of patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) using only the structural brain connectome. Specifically, the brain connectome is reconstructed using white matter fiber tracts from presurgical diffusion tensor imaging. To achieve our objective, a two-stage connectome-based prediction framework is developed that gradually selects a small number of abnormal network connections that contribute to the surgical treatment outcome, and in each stage a linear kernel operation is used to further improve the accuracy of the learned classifier. Using a 10-fold cross validation strategy, the first stage in the connectome-based framework is able to separate patients with TLE from normal controls with 80% accuracy, and second stage in the connectome-based framework is able to correctly predict the surgical treatment outcome of patients with TLE with 70% accuracy. Compared to existing state-of-the-art methods that use VBM data, the proposed two-stage connectome-based prediction framework is a suitable alternative with comparable prediction performance. Our results additionally show that machine learning algorithms that exclusively use structural connectome data can predict treatment outcomes in epilepsy with similar accuracy compared with "expert-based" clinical decision. In summary, using the unprecedented information provided in the brain connectome, machine learning algorithms may uncover pathological changes in brain network organization and improve outcome forecasting in the context of epilepsy.

Outcome of surgery for temporal lobe epilepsy in adults - A cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The aim of the current study was to evaluate the factors associated with post-operative outcome in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) undergoing Surgery.

METHODS

We analyzed data of 288 consecutive patients operated for drug-resistant TLE. All the patients had at least one year post surgery follow-up. Logistic regression model was used to evaluate the predictive value of different factors for outcome.

RESULTS

The mean age at onset of epilepsy of the study population was 15.51 ± 9.79 years; whereas the mean age at surgery was 32.16 ± 9.45 years, with 125 (43.4%) women. The age at surgery was significantly lower in the patients with favourable outcome (30.26 ± 9.05 vs. 34.06 ± 9.85 years; p = 0.007). The mean duration of epilepsy with age of onset below 12 years was higher than the rest (19.84 ± 7.30 vs. 13.00 ± 8.45 years; p < 0.001). The histopathology showed hippocampal sclerosis in 203 (70.4%) of the patients; isolated focal cortical dysplasia was associated with unfavourable outcome (9.3% vs.2.6%; p = 0.036). The duration of follow up ranged from 1 to 10.3 years. Three patients died late in the follow up. At the last follow 73% were seizure free and Engel's favourable outcome was noted in 82%. Duration of epilepsy greater than ten years (β = 6.997; 95%CI; 2.254-21.715; p = 0.01), younger age of onset of epilepsy (β = 1.07; 95%CI; 1.014-1.132; p = 0.015) and acute post operative seizures (APOS) (β = 4.761; 95%CI; 1.946-11.649; p = 0.001) were the predictors of unfavourable outcome.

CONCLUSION

Following surgery for TLE, 73% were seizure free and Engel's favourable outcome was noted in 82%. The predictors of unfavourable outcome were younger age of onset, pronged duration and of epilepsy and APOS.

Quantitative MRI in refractory temporal lobe epilepsy: relationship with surgical outcomes

Medically intractable temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) remains a serious health problem. Across treatment centers, up to 40% of patients with TLE will continue to experience persistent postoperative seizures at 2-year follow-up. It is unknown why such a large number of patients continue to experience seizures despite being suitable candidates for resective surgery. Preoperative quantitative MRI techniques may provide useful information on why some patients continue to experience disabling seizures, and may have the potential to develop prognostic markers of surgical outcome. In this article, we provide an overview of how quantitative MRI morphometric and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data have improved the understanding of brain structural alterations in patients with refractory TLE. We subsequently review the studies that have applied quantitative structural imaging techniques to identify the neuroanatomical factors that are most strongly related to a poor postoperative prognosis. In summary, quantitative imaging studies strongly suggest that TLE is a disorder affecting a network of neurobiological systems, characterized by multiple and inter-related limbic and extra-limbic network abnormalities. The relationship between brain alterations and postoperative outcome are less consistent, but there is emerging evidence suggesting that seizures are less likely to remit with surgery when presurgical abnormalities are observed in the connectivity supporting brain regions serving as network nodes located outside the resected temporal lobe. Future work, possibly harnessing the potential from multimodal imaging approaches, may further elucidate the etiology of persistent postoperative seizures in patients with refractory TLE. Furthermore, quantitative imaging techniques may be explored to provide individualized measures of postoperative seizure freedom outcome.

Advanced [(18)F]FDG and [(11)C]flumazenil PET analysis for individual outcome prediction after temporal lobe epilepsy surgery for hippocampal sclerosis

Purpose

We have previously shown that an imaging marker, increased periventricular [¹¹C]flumazenil ([¹¹C]FMZ) binding, is associated with failure to become seizure free (SF) after surgery for temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) with hippocampal sclerosis (HS). Here, we investigated whether increased preoperative periventricular white matter (WM) signal can be detected on clinical [¹⁸F]FDG-PET images. We then explored the potential of periventricular FDG WM increases, as well as whole-brain [¹¹C]FMZ and [¹⁸F]FDG images analysed with random forest classifiers, for predicting surgery outcome.

Methods

Sixteen patients with MRI-defined HS had preoperative [¹⁸F]FDG and [¹¹C]FMZ-PET. Fifty controls had [¹⁸F]FDG-PET (30), [¹¹C]FMZ-PET (41), or both (21). Periventricular WM signal was analysed using Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM8), and whole-brain image classification was performed using random forests implemented in R (http://www.r-project.org). Surgery outcome was predicted at the group and individual levels.

Results

At the group level, non-seizure free (NSF) versus SF patients had periventricular increases with both tracers. Against controls, NSF patients showed more prominent periventricular [¹¹C]FMZ and [¹⁸F]FDG signal increases than SF patients. All differences were more marked for [¹¹C]FMZ. For individuals, periventricular WM signal increases were seen at optimized thresholds in 5/8 NSF patients for both tracers. For SF patients, 1/8 showed periventricular signal increases for [¹¹C]FMZ, and 4/8 for [¹⁸F]FDG. Hence, [¹⁸F]FDG had relatively poor sensitivity and specificity. Random forest classification accurately identified 7/8 SF and 7/8 NSF patients using [¹¹C]FMZ images, but only 4/8 SF and 6/8 NSF patients with [¹⁸F]FDG.

Conclusion

This study extends the association between periventricular WM increases and NSF outcome to clinical [¹⁸F]FDG-PET, but only at the group level. Whole-brain random forest classification increases [¹¹C]FMZ-PET's performance for predicting surgery outcome.

Profile of epilepsy in a regional hospital in Al qassim, saudi arabia

INTRODUCTION

Epilepsy is a diverse set of chronic neurological disorders characterized by seizures. It is one of the most common of the serious neurological disorders. About 3% of people will be diagnosed with epilepsy at some time in their lives.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to address the commonest types of seizures, their aetiologies, EEG and neuroimaging results and prognosis of patients presented to neurology services of the King Fahad Specialist Hospital- AlQassim (KFSH).

METHODOLOGY

In this retrospective epidemiological study we investigated the medical records of patients with epilepsy, who attended the neurology services of KFSH, during the study period (26/10/2011-26/4/2012).

RESULTS

The study included 341 patients; 189 (55.4%) males and 152 (44.6%) females. Their ages ranged between 12 and 85 years (mean ± SD = 31±16.9). The majority of patients had Generalised Tonic Clonic Seizures (76.2%), followed by Complex Partial Seizures (7.6%). 73% of our patients had idiopathic epilepsy. The commonest causes for symptomatic epilepsy were Cerebro Vascular Accidents and Head trauma. Hemiplegia, mental retardation and psychiatric illness were the commonest comorbidity. 69.3% of patients had controlled seizures. Patients with idiopathic epilepsy were significantly controlled than patients with symptomatic epilepsy (P=0.01), and those using one Anti Epileptic Drug were significantly controlled compared to patients using polytherapy (P=0.0001) there was no significant relation between controlled seizure and duration of illness or hospitalization or EEG changes.

CONCLUSION

Seizure types, aetiology, drug therapy, Comorbidities and outcome in a tertiary care hospital in Saudi Arabia are similar to previous local and international studies. 35.3% of patients were hospitalized, higher rates than previous studies. Seizure control was better in generalized seizures and idiopathic epilepsy compared to complex partial seizures or partial seizures with secondary generalization and symptomatic epilepsy.

Identification of common predictors of surgical outcomes for epilepsy surgery

Although epilepsy surgery is an effective treatment for patients with drug-resistant epilepsy, surgical outcomes vary across patient groups and studies. Identification of reliable prognostic factors for surgical outcome is important for outcome research. In this study, recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses on prediction of seizure outcome have been analyzed, and common predictors of seizure outcome or unrelated factors for temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), lesional extratemporal lobe epilepsy (ETLE), and tuberous sclerosis complex have been identified. Clinical factors such as lesional epilepsy, abnormal magnetic resonance imaging, partial seizures, and complete resection were found to be common positive predictors, and factors such as nonlesional epilepsy, poorly defined and localized epileptic focus, generalized seizures, and incomplete resection are common negative predictors, while factors such as age at surgery and side of surgery are unrelated to seizure outcome for TLE and lesional ETLE. In addition, diagnostic neuroimaging and resection are among the most important predictors of seizure outcome. However, common predictors of seizure outcome could not be identified in nonlesional ETLE because no predictors were found to be significant in adult patients (by meta-analysis), and outcome prediction is difficult in this case. Meta-analysis of other outcomes, such as neuropsychologic outcomes, is rare due to lack of evaluation standards. Further studies on identification of reliable predictors of surgical outcomes are needed.