BMI trajectory and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes among middle-aged women

Associations of body mass index trajectory, waist circumference trajectory, or both with type 2 diabetes mellitus risk in Chinese adults: The China-PAR project

AIMS

To identify the trajectories of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and assess the associations of BMI trajectory, WC trajectory, or the two combined, with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk in Chinese adults.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study was based on a prospective project-the Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China (China-PAR). A total of 54 434 participants (39.21% men) who were measured on at least two occasions were included. Three slowly increasing trajectory patterns were identified for BMI, and four for WC, by latent mixed modelling. A nine-category variable was derived by combining the WC trajectory (low, moderate, moderate-high/high) and the BMI trajectory (low, moderate, high). Logistic regression models were applied to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The risk of developing T2DM increased with elevated BMI or WC trajectory levels (all ptrend <0.001). The risks were 2.85 (2.59-3.14) for high BMI trajectory and 4.34 (3.78-4.99) for high WC trajectory versus low trajectory groups, respectively. The association was more pronounced among younger individuals (pinteraction <0.001). In the joint analysis, compared to participants with low WC and BMI trajectory, those with moderate-high/high WC combined with high BMI trajectory had the highest risk of T2DM (OR 3.96, 95% CI 3.48-4.50); even those who maintained moderate-high/high WC but low BMI trajectory showed a higher T2DM risk (OR 3.00, 95% CI 2.31-3.91).

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that simultaneous dynamic and continuous monitoring of BMI and WC may contribute more than single measurements to predicting T2DM risk and determining preventive strategies.

Adipokines and stroke: A systematic review and meta-analysis of disease risk and patient outcomes

Obesity is reported to increase stroke risk, with adipocyte-derived cytokines or adipokines implicated as mediators. However, the relationship between adipokines and stroke is not well clarified. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the association of adipokines with stroke using fully adjusted risk estimates that incorporated body mass index in a meta-analysis. Data from 52 studies (62,428 patients) were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. Adiponectin was independently associated with a lower risk of pre-existing stroke (adjusted odds ratio: 0.64 [95% confidence interval: 0.46-0.88], p < 0.01), whereas leptin (1.08 [1.00-1.17], p = 0.04), resistin (1.06 [1.04-1.08], p < 0.01) and visfatin (1.04 [1.01-1.07], p = 0.01) are associated with a higher risk of stroke, but none with incident stroke. Adipokines independently associated with an ischaemic stroke subtype were adiponectin (0.48 [0.30-0.77], p < 0.01), leptin (1.10 [1.01-1.20], p = 0.04), and resistin (1.06 [1.04-1.08], p < 0.01). Fatty acid-binding protein-4 (FABP-4) independently predicted 6-month poor functional outcomes in stroke patients (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.09 [1.06-1.12], p < 0.01); whereas both FABP-4 (1.17 [1.03-1.34], p = 0.01) and visfatin (1.24 [1.00-1.55], p = 0.05) were predictive of 6-month mortality. Adipokines are associated with a greater risk of pre-existing stroke, but not with the relationship with incident stroke. Adipokines, such as FABP-4 and visfatin, may serve as biomarkers of stroke severity and worsening of stroke outcomes.

Geographical Distribution of Dietary Patterns and Their Association with T2DM in Chinese Adults Aged 45 y and Above: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the geographical distribution of dietary patterns and their association with T2DM among Chinese adults aged 45 years and above.

METHODS

Data was from the China Adults Chronic Diseases and Nutrition Surveillance (2015). Dietary intake for each participant was determined through a combination of 3-day 24-h dietary recall interviews and food frequency questionnaires. Principal component analysis was used to extract dietary patterns and spatial analysis was employed to investigate the geographic distribution of them. T2DM was diagnosed using criteria of ADA 2018, and binary logistic regression was employed to examine the relationship between dietary patterns and T2DM.

RESULTS

A total of 36,648 participants were included in the study; 10.9% of them were diagnosed as T2DM. Three dietary patterns were identified with the name of plant-based pattern, animal-based pattern, and oriental traditional pattern, which were represented located in northern, northwest, and southern regions, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants in the highest quartile of the plant-based pattern were associated with lower T2DM odds (OR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.74, 0.90) when comparing with the lowest quartile. However, participants inclined to higher quartiles of animal-based pattern had a higher risk of T2DM (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.27) compared with those in the lower quartiles. No significant association was found between the oriental traditional pattern and T2DM (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.93, 1.14).

CONCLUSION

Dietary patterns of Chinese population revealed geographical disparities, with plant-based dietary pattern showing protective effects and animal-based pattern carrying high risks for T2DM. Regional dietary variations and food environment are paramount in T2DM prevention and management.

Association between distinct body mass index trajectories according to the group-based trajectory modeling and the risk of incident diabetes: A systematic review

We aimed to determine the association between distinct body mass index (BMI) trajectories, using group-based trajectory modeling, and the subsequent risk of incident diabetes. Five databases were systematically searched. Fourteen population-based cohort studies that summarized the association between different BMI trajectories and subsequent diabetes, with the four most common BMI trajectories including the "stable," "increasing," "decreasing," and "turning" groups, were included. The rapid increase and stable high-level BMI groups showed the strongest association with the subsequent risk of diabetes compared with the stable normal BMI group. Increased baseline BMI levels resulted in a steeper slope and greater risk of subsequent diabetes. In the decreasing BMI group, one study reported that those aged &gt;50 years showed the highest incidence of subsequent diabetes, whereas the other two studies reported no association between these two variables. In the turning group, an increase followed by a decrease in BMI levels from adolescence to late adulthood could reduce the risk of developing diabetes, although the residual risk remained. By contrast, the incidence of subsequent diabetes remained high in the middle-aged BMI-turning group. This study can provide further insights for identifying populations at high risk of diabetes and for developing targeted prevention strategies.

Waist Circumference-Years Construct Analysis and the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: China Health and Nutrition Survey, 1997-2015

Background: Few studies have combined the degree and duration of abdominal obesity into a waist circumference-years construct for analysis. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of waist circumference-years on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. Methods: A total of 6616 adults from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) were enrolled in this study from 1997. The waist circumference-years construct was represented as the sum of the upper and lower area between the waist circumference baseline (men: ≥90 cm, women: ≥85 cm) and the waist circumference line. The correlations in the study were analyzed using logistic regression. Results: The incidence of type 2 diabetes increased with increasing waist circumference-years, with an adjusted risk increase of 38% (95% CI: 31−47%) for each additional 50 waist circumference-years, and this rate was similar across gender and age groups. The area under the curve of waist circumference-years (0.743) was greatest in the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis compared to baseline waist circumference (0.731) and the waist-height ratio (0.728) (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The waist circumference-years construct is closely associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes and may be a stronger predictor of type 2 diabetes risk than baseline waist circumference or the waist-height ratio.

Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Among Individuals with Excess Weight: Weight Trajectory Effects

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) among individuals with overweight or obesity is well-established; however, questions remain about the temporal dynamics of weight change (gain or loss) on the natural course of T2D in this at-risk population. Existing epidemiologic evidence is limited to studies that discretely sample and assess excess weight and T2D risk at different ages with limited follow-up, yet changes in weight may have time-varying and possibly non-linear effects on T2D risk. Predicting the impact of weight change on the risk of T2D is key to informing primary prevention. We critically review the relationship between weight change, trajectory groups (i.e., distinct weight change patterns), and T2D risk among individuals with excess weight in recently published T2D prevention randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and longitudinal cohort studies.

RECENT FINDINGS

Overall, weight trajectory groups have been shown to differ by age of onset, sex, and patterns of insulin resistance or beta-cell function biomarkers. Lifestyle (diet and physical activity), pharmacological, and surgical interventions can modify an individual's weight trajectory. Adolescence is a critical etiologically relevant window during which onset of excess weight may be associated with higher risk of T2D. Changes in insulin resistance and beta-cell function biomarkers are distinct but related correlates of weight trajectory groups that evolve contemporaneously over time. These multi-trajectory markers are differentially associated with T2D risk. T2D risk may differ by the age of onset and duration of excess body weight, and the type of weight loss intervention. A better understanding of the changes in weight, insulin sensitivity, and beta-cell function as distinct but related correlates of T2D risk that evolve contemporaneously over time has important implications for designing and targeting primary prevention efforts.

Body mass index increase and weight gain among people living with HIV-1 initiated on single-tablet darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide or bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide in the United States

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated body mass index (BMI) and weight changes in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1; PLWH) initiated on single-tablet darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (DRV/c/FTC/TAF) or bictegravir/FTC/TAF (BIC/FTC/TAF).

METHODS

Electronic medical record (EMR) data for treatment-naïve or virologically suppressed adults with HIV-1 who initiated treatment with DRV/c/FTC/TAF or BIC/FTC/TAF (index date) were obtained from Decision Resources Group's EMRs (17 July 2017-1 March 2020). Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to account for differences in baseline characteristics between the two cohorts. BMI and weight changes from pre-index to 3, 6, 9 and 12 months following the index date were compared using weighted mean differences (MDs). The time until an increase in BMI or weight ≥5% or ≥10% was compared using weighted hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

The weighted DRV/c/FTC/TAF and BIC/FTC/TAF cohorts comprised 1116 and 1134 PLWH, respectively (mean age = ∼49 years, females: ∼28%). Larger increases in BMI and weight from pre-index to each post-index time point were observed in PLWH initiating BIC/FTC/TAF vs DRV/c/FTC/TAF (12 months: MD in BMI = 1.23 kg/m², p < .001; MD in weight = 2.84 kg [6.26 lbs], p = .008). PLWH receiving BIC/FTC/TAF were significantly more likely to experience weight gain ≥5% (HR = 1.76, p = .004) and ≥10% (HR = 2.01, p = .020), and BMI increase ≥5% (HR = 1.77, p = .004) and ≥10% (HR = 1.76, p = .044) than those receiving DRV/c/FTC/TAF.

CONCLUSIONS

BIC/FTC/TAF was associated with greater BMI and weight increases compared to DRV/c/FTC/TAF. Weight gain and its sequelae may add to the clinical burden of PLWH and should be considered among other factors when selecting antiretroviral single-tablet regimens.

Moderate physical activity may not decrease the risk of cardiovascular disease in persistently overweight and obesity adults

Background

Body mass index (BMI) and physical activity (PA) has been documented to be associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the evidences regarding joint phenotypes of BMI and PA trajectories with risk for CVD and all-cause mortality are still limited.

Methods

Participants from the Kailuan Study, followed up during 2006–2019 were included, with primary outcomes of CVDs (myocardial infarction or stroke) and all-cause mortality. BMI and PA were repeatedly measured at least three times, and thus joint phenotypes trajectory groups were identified by group-based trajectory modeling. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations between trajectory groups and CVDs and all-cause mortality.

Results

Totally 88,141 (6 trajectories) and 89,736 participants (5 trajectories) were included in the final analyses relating trajectories to CVDs and all-cause mortality, respectively. Compared with persistent normal-weight with moderate PA group, participants were associated with increased risk of CVD in persistent overweight with moderate PA trajectory group (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22–1.41) and persistent obesity with moderate PA trajectory group (aHR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.41–1.69). While the rising to overweight with moderate PA in normal-weight status with active PA (aHR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.65–0.79), persistent overweight with moderate PA (aHR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.87–0.97) and decline to normal-weight in overweight status with moderate PA (aHR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.67–0.80) trajectories group were significantly associated with decreased all-cause mortality risk. The associations remained robust among stratifying by age and sex individuals and sensitive analysis.

Conclusions

The long-term trajectories analysis showed that moderate PA may not decrease the risk of CVD in persistently overweight and obesity adults.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-021-03212-7.