The risk-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index as a new predictor of one-year mortality rate in elderly Chinese patients who underwent hip fracture surgery

Respiratory Complications Are the Main Predictors of 1-Year Mortality in Patients with Hip Fractures: The Results from the Alzira Retrospective Cohort Study

Introduction: Hip fractures pose a significant challenge for older individuals given their high incidence and one-year mortality rate. The objective of this study was to identify the primary predictors of one-year mortality in older adults hospitalized for hip fractures. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving adults aged 70 years or older who were admitted to the hospital for fragility hip fractures between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2021. A total of 3229 patients were recruited, with 846 (26.2%) experiencing one-year mortality. Results: Respiratory complications (HR 2.42, 95%CI 1.42-4.14; p = 0.001) were the most significant predictors of one-year mortality, followed by hospital readmission (HR 1.96, 95%CI 1.66-2.32; p < 0.001), the male sex (HR 1.88, 95%CI 1.46-2.32; p < 0.001), cardiac complications (HR 1.88, 95%CI 1.46-2.32; p < 0.001), and a diagnosis of dementia at admission (HR 1.37, 95%CI 1.13-1.66; p = 0.001). The Charlson Index and the American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification system also significantly increased the mortality risk. Conversely, higher hemoglobin levels at admission and elevated albumin at discharge significantly reduced the mortality risk. Conclusions: The one-year mortality rate is substantial in older adults with hip fractures who are admitted to an orthogeriatric unit. The appropriate management of anemia, nutritional disorders, and comorbidity at admission and during the follow-up could potentially mitigate long-term mortality after hip fractures.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of preoperative predictors for early mortality following hip fracture surgery

Hip fractures are a global health problem with a high postoperative mortality rate. Preoperative predictors for early mortality could be used to optimise and personalise healthcare strategies. This study aimed to identify predictors for early mortality following hip fracture surgery. Cohort studies examining independent preoperative predictors for mortality following hip fracture surgery were identified through a systematic search on Scopus and PubMed. Predictors for 30-day mortality were the primary outcome, and predictors for mortality within 1 year were secondary outcomes. Primary outcomes were analysed with random-effects meta-analyses. Confidence in the cumulative evidence was assessed using the GRADE criteria. Secondary outcomes were synthesised narratively. Thirty-three cohort studies involving 462,699 patients were meta-analysed. Five high-quality evidence predictors for 30-day mortality were identified: age per year (OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04-1.07), ASA score ≥ 3 (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 2.12-3.42), male gender (OR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.85-2.18), institutional residence (OR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.31-2.49), and metastatic cancer (OR: 2.83, 95% CI: 2.58-3.10). Additionally, six moderate-quality evidence predictors were identified: chronic renal failure, dementia, diabetes, low haemoglobin, heart failures, and a history of any malignancy. Weak evidence was found for non-metastatic cancer. This review found relevant preoperative predictors which could be used to identify patients who are at high risk of 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery. For some predictors, the prognostic value could be increased by further subcategorising the conditions by severity.

Association of nutritional status and comorbidity with long-term survival among community-dwelling older males

BACKGROUND

Estimates of survival in the older can be of benefit in various facets, particularly in medical and individual decision-making. We aim to validate the value of a combination of nutrition status evaluation and comorbidity assessment in predicting long-term survival among community-dwelling older.

METHODS

The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was applied for comprehensive evaluation of comorbidities. Participants were classified into CCI score ≤ 2 and ≥ 3 subgroups. Nutritional status was assessed by using Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form (MNA-SF) and Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) evaluations. Mortality rates and survival curves over a 5-year period were compared among subgroups classified by CCI and/or MNA-SF/GNRI evaluations.

RESULTS

A total of 1033 elderly male participants were enrolled in this study, with an average age of 79.44 ± 8.61 years. 108 deceased participants (10.5%) were identified during a follow-up of 5 years. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that age, CCI, MNA-SF and GNRI were independent predictors of 5-year all-cause death in this cohort. Compared to those with normal nutrition status and CCI ≤ 2, the subgroup at risk of malnutrition and CCI ≥ 3 had a significantly higher 5-year all-cause mortality rate (HR = 4.671; 95% CI:2.613-8.351 for MNA-SF and HR = 7.268; 95% CI:3.401-15.530 for GNRI; P < 0.001 for both). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that a combination of either MNA-SF or GNRI with CCI had significantly better performance than CCI, MNA-SF or GNRI alone in predicting all-cause death.

CONCLUSION

The combination of nutritional assessment (MNA-SF or GNRI) with CCI can significantly improve the predictive accuracy of long-term mortality outcomes among community-dwelling older males.

Timing of Adverse Events Within 90 Days of Hip Fracture Surgery: A Database Study

INTRODUCTION

Hip fracture surgery is associated with notable morbidity. Understanding the timing of adverse events can inform strategies for prevention and management. Owing to database limitations, many studies have limited postoperative follow-up to 30 days. However, adverse events may not have plateaued by this time. This study evaluated adverse events after hip fracture surgery out to 90 days.

METHODS

Hip fracture surgeries in patients 65 years or older were identified in the 2010 to 2020 Q3 M91Ortho PearlDiver data set using administrative codes. The 90-day incidence and time of diagnosis of 10 common adverse events were determined and used to calculate median, interquartile range, and middle 80% for time of diagnosis. The number of events occurring before and after 30 days was also determined.

RESULTS

A total of 258,834 hip fracture surgery patients were identified. On average, 70% of adverse events occurred in postoperative days 0 to 30 and 30% occurred in days 31 to 90. The percentage of events in days 31 to 90 ranged from 8% (transfusion) to 42% (wound dehiscence). Compared with patients with a 0- to 30-day adverse event, those with 31- to 90-day adverse events had higher average Elixhauser Comorbidity Index scores (8.6 vs. 7.8, P < 0.001) and a slightly greater proportion of men (31.5% vs. 30.2%, P < 0.001).For specific adverse events, the time of diagnosis (median; interquartile range; middle 80%) were as follows: transfusion (2 days; 1 to 4 days; 1 to 24 days), acute kidney injury (5; 2 to 26; 1 to 55), cardiac event (9; 3 to 35; 1 to 64), urinary tract infection (13; 3 to 39; 1 to 65), hematoma (14; 6 to 28; 3 to 52), pneumonia (15; 5 to 39; 2 to 66), venous thromboembolism (16; 5 to 40; 2 to 64), surgical site infection (23; 14 to 37; 7 to 56), sepsis (24; 9 to 48; 3 to 71), and wound dehiscence (26; 15 to 41; 7 to 64).

DISCUSSION

Nearly one-third of 90-day adverse events after hip fracture surgery were found to occur after postoperative day 30. An understanding of the timing of adverse events is important for improving patient counseling and optimizing patient care.

Proximal femoral fracture and female gender are risk factors for recurrent fracture: Cohort study of 292 patients over 75 years-old with iterative osteoporotic fractures

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to: 1/ describe the characteristics of a cohort of patients over 75 years of age hospitalized in perioperative geriatric units (UPOG) for iterative fractures; 2/ investigate the risks of institutionalization related to the first fracture; and 3/ search for potential risk factors for iterative fracture.

METHODS

This is a retrospective single-center study analyzing patients over 75 years old, hospitalized in UPOG.

RESULTS

Of the 3207 patients hospitalized, 292 patients had a refracture (9.1%), with a mean age of 85.4+/-5.8 years. Initial fractures were mainly intertrochanteric (43.2%) and the femoral neck (32.9%). Refractures occurred mainly in the first year (55.5%), with a median delay of 9.6 months. Refractures were mainly intertrochanteric (29.5%), peri‑implant (prosthesis, osteosynthesis) (28.8%), and femoral neck (26.7%). Dementia was the only factor for institutionalization after the first fracture episode (p = 0.0002). Proximal femoral fracture (PFF) and female gender were risk factors for iterative fracture (10.2% vs. 6.8%, p = 0.003; 10.7% vs. 6.8%, p = 0.005 respectively), but not age (85.4 vs. 85.8 years, p = 0.24). PFF were more likely to result in the same fracture type in the second episode (58.1% vs 7.1%, p<0.0001). The time to refracture was shorter in case of peri‑implant fracture (p = 0.0002), or discharge directly to home (p = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

PFF and female gender are risk factors for recurrent fracture, which is even more likely to occur early in case of home discharge or peri‑implant fracture.

Association between cigarette smoking and mortality in patients with hip fracture: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Hip fracture is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality, especially among the elderly. Current evidence on the association between cigarette smoking and mortality in hip-fracture patients is controversial. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on this association.

METHODS

The databases Medline/PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched for studies that estimated the effect of smoking on the risk of mortality in hip-fracture patients. Pooled analyses were conducted of the associations, expressed in relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity was assessed using the I² statistic. Study quality was assessed by the modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) and publication bias was evaluated by a funnel plot, Begg's and Egger's tests. Subgroup analyses were performed by study design, race/ethnicity, age ≥60 years, smoking status, and follow-up period.

RESULTS

A total of six articles involving 3739 hip-fracture patients were included in the meta-analysis. Our results indicate that ever-active smoking was significantly associated with an increased risk of death in hip-fracture patients (pooled RR=1.26; 95% CI: 1.08-1.46). In further subgroup analysis, the risk of death was significantly higher in ever-active smokers than in never smokers in White participants (pooled RR=1.23; 95% CI: 1.05-1.44) and elderly aged ≥60 years (pooled RR=1.19; 95% CI: 1.01-1.40), with no significant association in Asian participants (pooled RR=1.42; 95% CI: 0.95-2.11). Current smokers had more risk of death than never smokers (pooled RR=1.26; 95% CI: 1.08-1.46). The association was significant in follow-up periods of ≤1 year (pooled hazard ratio, HR=1.34; 95% CI: 1.05-1.71), 3 years (pooled HR=1.22; 95% CI: 1.05-1.43), and 5 years (pooled HR=1.26; 95% CI: 1.08-1.46).

CONCLUSIONS

Cigarette smoking is associated with an increased risk of mortality in hip-fracture patients, especially in elderly patients aged ≥60 years, current smokers, and White participants. With the extension of follow-up period, the effect on mortality of smoking is profound and lasting.

Risk factors of mortality and second fracture after elderly hip fracture surgery in Shanghai, China

INTRODUCTION

Hip fracture is one of the leading causes of death and disability in the elderly. We analyzed the risk factors of mortality and second fracture within 2 years after hip fracture surgery in elderly Chinese patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 613 elderly patients after hip fracture surgery were selected, including 181 males and 432 females, and the patients were followed for at least 24 months. Information about patients and surgery was collected from medical records. Information on death, secondary fracture, and postoperative activities of daily living (ADL) was obtained by telephone follow-up. Cox regression was performed to identify risk factors associated with mortality and second fracture, measured by hazard ratio (HR).

RESULTS

The 1-year and 2-year mortality rates after hip fracture were 13.4% and 20.7%, respectively. The second fracture rate within 2 years was 9.5%. Male gender (HR 1.51, P = 0.035), increased age (HR 1.07, P < 0.001), preoperative hypoalbuminemia (HR 1.79, P = 0.004), preoperative pneumonia (HR 2.60, P = 0.005) and poor ADL (P = 0.048) were independent risk factors for 2-year mortality, while high preoperative hemoglobin (HR 0.98, P = 0.002), high preoperative eGFR (HR 0.99, P = 0.031), high preoperative LVEF (HR 0.92, P = 0.048) were protective factors for 2-year mortality. Poor ADL (P = 0.002) was the independent risk factor for second fracture within 2 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2-year mortality rate and second fracture rate after hip fracture in elderly remained high, which was related to old age and complications exists. Postoperative rehabilitation and improving ADL were very important to reduce mortality and second fracture.

Efficacy and safety of tranexamic acid for patients with intertrochanteric fractures treated with intramedullary fixation: A systematic review and meta-analysis of current evidence in randomized controlled trials

Background: Tranexamic acid (TXA) has been widely applied to reduce perioperative bleeding. Recently, several studies focused on the administration of TXA in the treatment for with intertrochanteric fracture patients treated with intramedullary fixation. However, the efficacy and safety of TXA in these studies remain controversial. Therefore, we performed this systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the efficacy and safety of TXA in intertrochanteric fracture patients treated with intramedullary fixation.

Methods: We systematically searched electronic databases, including Cochrane, PubMed, and EMBASE, up to 16 May 2022. The efficacy and safety of TXA was evaluated in four aspects, which were bleeding-related outcomes, non-bleeding-related outcomes, thromboembolic events, and other complications. The outcomes of these studies were extracted and analyzed by RevMan Manager 5.4.

Results: Finally, nine randomized controlled trials, involving nine hundred and seventy-two intertrochanteric fracture patients treated with TXA, were enrolled in this study. In the bleeding-related outcomes, TXA group was significantly lower than the control group in terms of total blood loss (MD = −219.42; 95% CI, −299.80 to −139.03; p &lt; 0.001), intraoperative blood loss (MD = −36.81; 95% CI, −54.21 to −19.41; p &lt; 0.001), hidden blood loss (MD = −189.23; 95% CI, −274.92 to −103.54; p &lt; 0.001), and transfusion rate (RR = 0.64; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.85; p = 0.002). Moreover, the postoperative hemoglobin on day 3 of the TXA group was significantly higher than that of the control group (MD = 5.75; 95% CI, 1.26 to 10.23; p = 0.01). In the non-bleeding-related outcomes, the length of hospital stays was significantly shorter in the TXA group (MD = −0.67; 95% CI, −1.12 to −0.23; p = 0.003). In terms of thromboembolic events, there was no significant differences between the TXA group and control group in deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke. As for complications and mortality, there was no significant differences between the TXA group and control group in respiratory infection, renal failure, and postoperative mortality within 1 year.

Conclusion: TXA is an effective and safe drug for perioperative bleeding control in intertrochanteric fracture patients treated with intramedullary fixation. However, the long-term efficacy of TXA still needs to be investigated by large-scale multicenter randomized controlled trials.

Level of evidence: II, Systematic review and Meta-analysis.

Systematic Review Registration:https://inplasy.com/, identifier [INPLASY202280027]

The Role of Smoking and Body Mass Index in Mortality Risk Assessment for Geriatric Hip Fracture Patients

Background

Smoking, obesity, and being below a healthy body weight are known to increase all-cause mortality rates and are considered modifiable risk factors. The purpose of this study is to assess whether adding these risk factors to a validated geriatric inpatient mortality risk tool will improve the predictive capacity for hip fracture patients. We hypothesize that the predictive capacity of the Score for Trauma Triage in the Geriatric and Middle-Aged (STTGMA) tool will improve.

Methodology

Between October 2014 and August 2021, 2,421 patients >55-years-old treated for hip fractures caused by low-energy mechanisms were analyzed for demographics, injury details, hospital quality measures, and mortality. Smoking status was recorded as a current every-day smoker, former smoker, or never smoker. Smokers (current and former) were compared to non-smokers (never smokers). Body mass index (BMI) was defined as underweight (<18.5 kg/m²), healthy weight (18.5-24.9 kg/m²), overweight (25.0-24.9 kg/m²), or obese (>30 kg/m²). The baseline STTGMA tool for hip fractures (STTGMAHIP_FX_SCORE) was modified to include patients’ BMI and smoking status (STTGMA_MODIFIABLE), and new mortality risk scores were calculated. Each model’s predictive ability was compared using DeLong’s test by analyzing the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROCs). Comparative analyses were conducted on each risk quartile.

Results

A comparison of smokers versus non-smokers demonstrated that smokers experienced higher rates of inpatient (p = 0.025) and 30-day (p = 0.048) mortality, myocardial infarction (p < 0.01), acute respiratory failure (p < 0.01), and a longer length of stay (p = 0.014). Comparison among BMI cohorts demonstrated that underweight patients experienced higher rates of pneumonia (p = 0.033), decubitus ulcers (p = 0.046), and the need for an intensive care unit (ICU) (p < 0.01). AUROC comparison demonstrated that STTGMA_MODIFIABLE significantly improved the predictive capacity for inpatient mortality compared to STTGMAHIP_FX_SCORE (0.792 vs. 0.672, p = 0.0445). Quartile stratification demonstrated the highest risk cohort had a longer length of stay (p < 0.01), higher rates of inpatient (p < 0.01) and 30-day mortality (p < 0.01), and need for an ICU (p < 0.01) compared to the minimal risk cohort. Patients in the lowest risk quartile were most likely to be discharged home (p < 0.01).

Conclusions

Smoking, obesity, and being below a healthy body weight increase the risk of perioperative complications and poor outcomes. Including smoking and BMI improves the STTGMAHIP_FX_SCORE tool to predict mortality and risk stratify patient outcomes. Because smoking, obesity, and being below a healthy body weight are modifiable patient factors, providers can counsel patients and implement lifestyle changes to potentially decrease their risk of longer-term poor outcomes, especially in the setting of another fracture. For patients who are former smokers, providers can use this information to encourage continued restraint and healthy choices.

A New Random Forest Algorithm-Based Prediction Model of Post-operative Mortality in Geriatric Patients With Hip Fractures

Background

Post-operative mortality risk assessment for geriatric patients with hip fractures (HF) is a challenge for clinicians. Early identification of geriatric HF patients with a high risk of post-operative death is helpful for early intervention and improving clinical prognosis. However, a single significant risk factor of post-operative death cannot accurately predict the prognosis of geriatric HF patients. Therefore, our study aims to utilize a machine learning approach, random forest algorithm, to fabricate a prediction model for post-operative death of geriatric HF patients.

Methods

This retrospective study enrolled consecutive geriatric HF patients who underwent treatment for surgery. The study cohort was divided into training and testing datasets at a 70:30 ratio. The random forest algorithm selected or excluded variables according to the feature importance. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) was utilized to compare feature selection results of random forest. The confirmed variables were used to create a simplified model instead of a full model with all variables. The prediction model was then verified in the training dataset and testing dataset. Additionally, a prediction model constructed by logistic regression was used as a control to evaluate the efficiency of the new prediction model.

Results

Feature selection by random forest algorithm and Lasso regression demonstrated that seven variables, including age, time from injury to surgery, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), albumin, hemoglobin, history of malignancy, and perioperative blood transfusion, could be used to predict the 1-year post-operative mortality. The area under the curve (AUC) of the random forest algorithm-based prediction model in training and testing datasets were 1.000, and 0.813, respectively. While the prediction tool constructed by logistic regression in training and testing datasets were 0.895, and 0.797, respectively.

Conclusions

Compared with logistic regression, the random forest algorithm-based prediction model exhibits better predictive ability for geriatric HF patients with a high risk of death within post-operative 1 year.