Mathematical modeling of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission

Simulating control of a focal wildlife outbreak of Echinococcus multilocularis

The parasitic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis is the causative agent of alveolar echinococcosis, a serious zoonotic infection present in Europe that can be fatal. The United Kingdom currently has E. multilocularis free status but the possibility of introduction exists, most likely via an imported or returning dog or other deliberately introduced animal that has not had anthelmintic treatment. We have developed a model to predict the probability of successfully eliminating a focal outbreak of E. multilocularis using a programme of anthelmintic bait distribution. We investigated three different potential control programmes, each with 36 monthly campaigns commencing five, ten or 15 years after disease introduction over an area of 2827km². We assumed equilibrium disease prevalence of 30%, 40% and 55% based on the range of values reported across Europe. However, for all of these scenarios, equilibrium had not been reached at five to 15 years after introduction and simulated local prevalence values were between 0.5% and 28%. We found that it is possible to eliminate the disease with a 38%-86% success rate if control is started five years after introduction, dropping to 0% to 56% if control is delayed until 15 years after introduction, depending upon the prevalence equilibrium. We have also estimated the costs involved in these programmes to be from €7 to €12 million (2013 prices).

Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission

BACKGROUND

Echinococcosis is a complex zoonosis that has domestic and sylvatic lifecycles, and a range of different intermediate and definitive host species. The complexities of its transmission and the sparse evidence on the effectiveness of control strategies in diverse settings provide significant challenges for the design of effective public health policy against this disease. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for simulating control packages under locally specific transmission conditions to inform optimal timing and frequency of phased interventions for cost-effective control of echinococcosis. The aims of this review of 30 years of Echinococcus modelling were to discern the epidemiological mechanisms underpinning models of Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis transmission and to establish the need to include a human transmission component in such models.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A search was conducted of all relevant articles published up until July 2012, identified from the PubMED, Web of Knowledge and Medline databases and review of bibliographies of selected papers. Papers eligible for inclusion were those describing the design of a new model, or modification of an existing mathematical model of E. granulosus or E. multilocularis transmission. A total of 13 eligible papers were identified, five of which described mathematical models of E. granulosus and eight that described E. multilocularis transmission. These models varied primarily on the basis of six key mechanisms that all have the capacity to modulate model dynamics, qualitatively affecting projections. These are: 1) the inclusion of a 'latent' class and/or time delay from host exposure to infectiousness; 2) an age structure for animal hosts; 3) the presence of density-dependent constraints; 4) accounting for seasonality; 5) stochastic parameters; and 6) inclusion of spatial and risk structures.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This review discusses the conditions under which these mechanisms may be important for inclusion in models of Echinococcus transmission and proposes recommendations for the design of dynamic human models of transmission. Accounting for the dynamic behaviour of the Echinococcus parasites in humans will be key to predicting changes in the disease burden over time and to simulate control strategies that optimise public health impact.

Natural infection of the ground squirrel (Spermophilus spp.) with Echinococcus granulosus in China

Background

Echinococcus granulosus is usually transmitted between canid definitive hosts and ungulate intermediate hosts.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Lesions found in the livers of ground squirrels, Spermophilus dauricus/alashanicus, trapped in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, an area in China co-endemic for both E. granulosus and E. multilocularis, were subjected to molecular genotyping for Echinococcus spp. DNA. One of the lesions was shown to be caused by E. granulosus and subsequently by histology to contain viable protoscoleces.

Conclusions/Significance

This is the first report of a natural infection of the ground squirrel with E. granulosus. This does not provide definitive proof of a cycle involving ground squirrels and dogs or foxes, but it is clear that there is active E. granulosus transmission occurring in this area, despite a recent past decline in the dog population in southern Ningxia.

Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis are important zoonotic pathogens that cause serious disease in humans. E. granulosus can be transmitted through sylvatic cycles, involving wild carnivores and ungulates; or via domestic cycles, usually involving dogs and farm livestock. E. multilocularis is primarily maintained in a sylvatic life-cycle between foxes and rodents. As part of extensive investigations that we undertook to update available epidemiological data and to monitor the transmission patterns of both E. granulosus and E. mulilocularis in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR) in northwest China, we captured small mammals on the southern slopes of Yueliang Mountain, Xiji, an area co-endemic for human alveolar echinococcosis and cystic echinococcosis. Of 500 trapped small mammals (mainly ground squirrels; Spermophilus dauricus/alashanicus), macroscopic cyst-like lesions (size range 1–10 mm) were found on the liver surface of approximately 10% animals. One of the lesions was shown by DNA analysis to be caused by E. granulosus and by histology to contain viable protoscoleces. This is the first report of a natural infection of the ground squirrel with E. granulosus. We have no definitive proof of a cycle involving ground squirrels and dogs/foxes but it is evident that there is active E. granulosus transmission occurring in this area.