Dynamically rich, yet parameter-sparse models for spatial epidemiology: Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al

Effects of quarantine disobedience and mobility restrictions on COVID-19 pandemic waves in dynamical networks

For the global COVID-19 pandemic it is still not adequately understood how quarantine disobedience and change in mobility restrictions influence the pandemic spreading and waves. Here, we propose a new metapopulation epidemiological model as a network composed of equal clusters to predict the course of the epidemic based on the contiguous spreading between the neighbours, the probability of quarantine misbehaviour, and the probability of mobility, which control contacts outside the cluster. We exemplify the model by comparing simulation results with real data on COVID-19 pandemic in Croatia. Fitting the data over the first and second pandemic waves, when the probability of mobility is set by the stringency index, the probability of quarantine misbehaviour is found by a Bayesian optimization yielding a fascinating agreement between the daily COVID-19 deaths and model output and efficiently predicting the timing of pandemic bursts. A sudden increase in the probability of quarantine misbehaviour alongside the sudden increase in the probability of mobility generate the model third wave in good agreement with daily COVID-19 deaths.

Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties

Infectious diseases are a threat to human health and a hindrance to societal development. Consequently, the spread of diseases in both time and space has been widely studied, revealing the different types of spatial patterns. Transitions between patterns are an emergent property in spatial epidemics that can serve as a potential trend indicator of disease spread. Despite the usefulness of such an indicator, attempts to systematize the topic of pattern transitions have been few and far between. We present a mini-review on pattern transitions in spatial epidemics, describing the types of transitions and their underlying mechanisms. We show that pattern transitions relate to the complexity of spatial epidemics by, for example, being accompanied with phenomena such as coherence resonance and cyclic evolution. The results presented herein provide valuable insights into disease prevention and control, and may even be applicable outside epidemiology, including other branches of medical science, ecology, quantitative finance, and elsewhere.

Physics of metabolic organization

We review the most comprehensive metabolic theory of life existing to date. A special focus is given to the thermodynamic roots of this theory and to implications that the laws of physics-such as the conservation of mass and energy-have on all life. Both the theoretical foundations and biological applications are covered. Hitherto, the foundations were more accessible to physicists or mathematicians, and the applications to biologists, causing a dichotomy in what always should have been a single body of work. To bridge the gap between the two aspects of the same theory, we (i) adhere to the theoretical formalism, (ii) try to minimize the amount of information that a reader needs to process, but also (iii) invoke examples from biology to motivate the introduction of new concepts and to justify the assumptions made, and (iv) show how the careful formalism of the general theory enables modular, self-consistent extensions that capture important features of the species and the problem in question. Perhaps the most difficult among the introduced concepts, the utilization (or mobilization) energy flow, is given particular attention in the form of an original and considerably simplified derivation. Specific examples illustrate a range of possible applications-from energy budgets of individual organisms, to population dynamics, to ecotoxicology.