Prediction of relapse in melancholic depressive patients in a 2-year follow-up study with corticotropin releasing factor test

Predicting relapse or recurrence of depression: systematic review of prognostic models

BACKGROUND

Relapse and recurrence of depression are common, contributing to the overall burden of depression globally. Accurate prediction of relapse or recurrence while patients are well would allow the identification of high-risk individuals and may effectively guide the allocation of interventions to prevent relapse and recurrence.

AIMS

To review prognostic models developed to predict the risk of relapse, recurrence, sustained remission, or recovery in adults with remitted major depressive disorder.

METHOD

We searched the Cochrane Library (current issue); Ovid MEDLINE (1946 onwards); Ovid Embase (1980 onwards); Ovid PsycINFO (1806 onwards); and Web of Science (1900 onwards) up to May 2021. We included development and external validation studies of multivariable prognostic models. We assessed risk of bias of included studies using the Prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS

We identified 12 eligible prognostic model studies (11 unique prognostic models): 8 model development-only studies, 3 model development and external validation studies and 1 external validation-only study. Multiple estimates of performance measures were not available and meta-analysis was therefore not necessary. Eleven out of the 12 included studies were assessed as being at high overall risk of bias and none examined clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

Due to high risk of bias of the included studies, poor predictive performance and limited external validation of the models identified, presently available clinical prediction models for relapse and recurrence of depression are not yet sufficiently developed for deploying in clinical settings. There is a need for improved prognosis research in this clinical area and future studies should conform to best practice methodological and reporting guidelines.

Prognostic models for predicting relapse or recurrence of major depressive disorder in adults

BACKGROUND

Relapse (the re-emergence of depressive symptoms after some level of improvement but preceding recovery) and recurrence (onset of a new depressive episode after recovery) are common in depression, lead to worse outcomes and quality of life for patients and exert a high economic cost on society. Outcomes can be predicted by using multivariable prognostic models, which use information about several predictors to produce an individualised risk estimate. The ability to accurately predict relapse or recurrence while patients are well (in remission) would allow the identification of high-risk individuals and may improve overall treatment outcomes for patients by enabling more efficient allocation of interventions to prevent relapse and recurrence.

OBJECTIVES

To summarise the predictive performance of prognostic models developed to predict the risk of relapse, recurrence, sustained remission or recovery in adults with major depressive disorder who meet criteria for remission or recovery.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Library (current issue); Ovid MEDLINE (1946 onwards); Ovid Embase (1980 onwards); Ovid PsycINFO (1806 onwards); and Web of Science (1900 onwards) up to May 2020. We also searched sources of grey literature, screened the reference lists of included studies and performed a forward citation search. There were no restrictions applied to the searches by date, language or publication status .

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included development and external validation (testing model performance in data separate from the development data) studies of any multivariable prognostic models (including two or more predictors) to predict relapse, recurrence, sustained remission, or recovery in adults (aged 18 years and over) with remitted depression, in any clinical setting. We included all study designs and accepted all definitions of relapse, recurrence and other related outcomes. We did not specify a comparator prognostic model.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened references; extracted data (using a template based on the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS)); and assessed risks of bias of included studies (using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST)). We referred any disagreements to a third independent review author. Where we found sufficient (10 or more) external validation studies of an individual model, we planned to perform a meta-analysis of its predictive performance, specifically with respect to its calibration (how well the predicted probabilities match the observed proportions of individuals that experience the outcome) and discrimination (the ability of the model to differentiate between those with and without the outcome). Recommendations could not be qualified using the GRADE system, as guidance is not yet available for prognostic model reviews.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 11 eligible prognostic model studies (10 unique prognostic models). Seven were model development studies; three were model development and external validation studies; and one was an external validation-only study. Multiple estimates of performance measures were not available for any of the models and, meta-analysis was therefore not possible. Ten out of the 11 included studies were assessed as being at high overall risk of bias. Common weaknesses included insufficient sample size, inappropriate handling of missing data and lack of information about discrimination and calibration. One paper (Klein 2018) was at low overall risk of bias and presented a prognostic model including the following predictors: number of previous depressive episodes, residual depressive symptoms and severity of the last depressive episode. The external predictive performance of this model was poor (C-statistic 0.59; calibration slope 0.56; confidence intervals not reported). None of the identified studies examined the clinical utility (net benefit) of the developed model.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Of the 10 prognostic models identified (across 11 studies), only four underwent external validation. Most of the studies (n = 10) were assessed as being at high overall risk of bias, and the one study that was at low risk of bias presented a model with poor predictive performance. There is a need for improved prognostic research in this clinical area, with future studies conforming to current best practice recommendations for prognostic model development/validation and reporting findings in line with the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement.

Prospective biomarkers of major depressive disorder: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Leading biological hypotheses propose that biological changes may underlie major depressive disorder onset and relapse/recurrence. Here, we investigate if there is prospective evidence for biomarkers derived from leading theories. We focus on neuroimaging, gastrointestinal factors, immunology, neurotrophic factors, neurotransmitters, hormones, and oxidative stress. Searches were performed in Pubmed, Embase and PsychInfo for articles published up to 06/2019. References and citations of included articles were screened to identify additional articles. Inclusion criteria were having an MDD diagnosis as outcome, a biomarker as predictor, and prospective design search terms were formulated accordingly. PRISMA guidelines were applied. Meta-analyses were performed using a random effect model when three or more comparable studies were identified, using a random effect model. Our search resulted in 67,464 articles, of which 75 prospective articles were identified on: Neuroimaging (N = 24), Gastrointestinal factors (N = 1), Immunology (N = 8), Neurotrophic (N = 2), Neurotransmitters (N = 1), Hormones (N = 39), Oxidative stress (N = 1). Meta-analyses on brain volumes and immunology markers were not significant. Only cortisol (N = 19, OR = 1.294, p = 0.024) showed a predictive effect on onset/relapse/recurrence of MDD, but not on time until MDD onset/relapse/recurrence. However, this effect disappeared when studies including participants with a baseline clinical diagnosis were removed from the analyses. Other studies were too heterogeneous to compare. Thus, there is a lack of evidence for leading biological theories for onset and maintenance of depression. Only cortisol was identified as potential predictor for MDD, but results are influenced by the disease state. High-quality (prospective) studies on MDD are needed to disentangle the etiology and maintenance of MDD.

Patient predictors of response to cognitive behaviour therapy and schema therapy for depression

OBJECTIVE

Few studies have examined differential predictors of response to psychotherapy for depression. Greater understanding about the factors associated with therapeutic response may better enable therapists to optimise response by targeting therapy for the individual. The aim of the current exploratory study was to examine patient characteristics associated with response to cognitive behaviour therapy and schema therapy for depression.

METHODS

Participants were 100 outpatients in a clinical trial randomised to either cognitive behaviour therapy or schema therapy. Potential predictors of response examined included demographic, clinical, functioning, cognitive, personality and neuropsychological variables.

RESULTS

Individuals with chronic depression and increased levels of pre-treatment negative automatic thoughts had a poorer response to both cognitive behaviour therapy and schema therapy. A treatment type interaction was found for verbal learning and memory. Lower levels of verbal learning and memory impairment markedly impacted on response to schema therapy. This was not the case for cognitive behaviour therapy, which was more impacted if verbal learning and memory was in the moderate range.

CONCLUSION

Study findings are consistent with the Capitalisation Model suggesting that therapy that focuses on the person's strengths is more likely to contribute to a better outcome. Limitations were that participants were outpatients in a randomised controlled trial and may not be representative of other depressed samples. Examination of a variety of potential predictors was exploratory and requires replication.

A users guide to HPA axis research

Glucocorticoid hormones (cortisol and corticosterone - CORT) are the effector hormones of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis neuroendocrine system. CORT is a systemic intercellular signal whose level predictably varies with time of day and dynamically increases with environmental and psychological stressors. This hormonal signal is utilized by virtually every cell and physiological system of the body to optimize performance according to circadian, environmental and physiological demands. Disturbances in normal HPA axis activity profiles are associated with a wide variety of physiological and mental health disorders. Despite numerous studies to date that have identified molecular, cellular and systems-level glucocorticoid actions, new glucocorticoid actions and clinical status associations continue to be revealed at a brisk pace in the scientific literature. However, the breadth of investigators working in this area poses distinct challenges in ensuring common practices across investigators, and a full appreciation for the complexity of a system that is often reduced to a single dependent measure. This Users Guide is intended to provide a fundamental overview of conceptual, technical and practical knowledge that will assist individuals who engage in and evaluate HPA axis research. We begin with examination of the anatomical and hormonal components of the HPA axis and their physiological range of operation. We then examine strategies and best practices for systematic manipulation and accurate measurement of HPA axis activity. We feature use of experimental methods that will assist with better understanding of CORT's physiological actions, especially as those actions impact subsequent brain function. This research approach is instrumental for determining the mechanisms by which alterations of HPA axis function may contribute to pathophysiology.

Glucocorticoid and mineralocorticoid receptor polymorphisms and recurrence of major depressive disorder

OBJECTIVE

Previous research found that variants of the glucocorticoid receptor (GR) (9β, ER22/23EK, BclI, TthIIIl, NR3C1-1 and N363S) and mineralocorticoid receptor (MR) gene polymorphism (-2 C/G and I180V) are associated with both glucocorticoid (GC) sensitivity and major depressive disorder (MDD). There are no data which investigated prospectively whether these variants are associated with recurrence of MDD.

METHODS

Data were derived from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA) which used the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) to determine MDD. Polymorphisms in the GR and MR gene were determined and haplotypes were characterized. We analyzed in retrospect whether recurrent MDD (n=951) in comparison with first onset MDD (n=919) was associated with polymorphisms in the GR and MR gene. Furthermore, we analyzed prospectively for 4 years the time to recurrence among 683 subjects with a remitted MDD diagnosis. Time to recurrence of MDD was assessed using the CIDI and a life chart interview. Additionally, we analyzed interactions of the investigated polymorphisms with childhood trauma and recent negative life events.

RESULTS

GR and MR gene polymorphisms and derived haplotypes were not associated with recurrence of depression in both retrospective and prospective analyses. In addition, no consistent interactions between GR and MR polymorphisms and childhood trauma or life events were found.

CONCLUSION

This study did not find consistent associations between GR and MR gene polymorphisms, interactions between GR and MR haplotypes and stressful conditions and recurrence of MDD.

Increased cortisol awakening response was associated with time to recurrence of major depressive disorder

INTRODUCTION

Although HPA-axis activity has been studied extensively in relation to depression, there is no consensus whether HPA-axis parameters predicts major depressive disorder (MDD) recurrence. We investigated whether HPA-axis parameters (cortisol awakening response (CAR), the dexamethasone suppression test (DST) and evening cortisol) predict time to recurrence in remitted subjects with a history of MDD and whether childhood trauma and life events interact with HPA-axis parameters in increasing the risk for recurrence.

METHOD

Data were derived from 549 subjects with a lifetime diagnosis of MDD in remission for at least six months preceding the baseline assessment of the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA). Subjects were followed up with two interviews over the course of four years to assess recurrence. DSM-IV based diagnostic interviews were used to assess time to recurrence of MDD. Seven salivary cortisol samples collected at baseline with information on CAR, evening cortisol and the DST. Hazard ratios were calculated using Cox regression analysis, adjusted for covariates.

RESULTS

A higher CAR was associated with time to recurrence of MDD (HR=1.03, 95%CI 1.003-1.060, p=0.03) whereas evening cortisol and DST were not. No interactions between HPA-axis parameters and stress-related factors were found.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data support previous studies reporting that subjects with a higher CAR are more vulnerable to recurrence of MDD.

Pretreatment cortisol levels predict posttreatment outcomes among older adults with depression in cognitive behavioral therapy

Previous studies suggest that individuals with elevated levels of cortisol (the "stress hormone") could be particularly resistant to treatment for depression. However, most of these studies have been conducted in the context of antidepressant medications, and no study has examined pretreatment cortisol levels as a predictor of treatment outcomes among older adults with depression in cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), despite the relevance of this population for such a research question. The current study includes 54 older adults with depression who provided salivary cortisol samples at baseline and completed measures of depression at pretreatment and posttreatment, following a 12-week course of CBT. Structural equation modeling results suggest that those with higher daily outputs of cortisol and flatter diurnal slopes were less likely to benefit from CBT-a finding which if replicated could have important implications for clinical practice and future research.

Salivary cortisol levels and the 2-year course of depressive and anxiety disorders

INTRODUCTION

Depression and anxiety disorders have been associated with hyperactivity of the hypothalamic-pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis. However, lower cortisol levels have also been observed in depressed patients. Whether cortisol level predicts the course of these disorders has not been examined in detail. We examined whether salivary cortisol indicators predict the 2-year course of depression and anxiety disorders.

METHODS

Longitudinal data are obtained from 837 participants of the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety, with a DSM-IV based depressive and/or anxiety disorder at baseline. At baseline, seven saliva samples were obtained, including the 1-h cortisol awakening response, evening cortisol level and a 0.5mg dexamethasone suppression test. At follow-up, DSM-IV based diagnostic interviews and Life Chart Interview integrating diagnostic and symptom trajectories over 2 years were administered to determine an unfavorable course.

RESULTS

41.5% of the respondents had a 2-year unfavorable course trajectory without remission longer than 3 months. Adjusted analyses showed that a lower awakening response was associated with an unfavorable course (RR=0.83, p=0.03). No associations were found between evening cortisol or cortisol suppression after dexamethasone ingestion and an unfavorable course trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with depressive or anxiety disorders, a lower cortisol awakening response - which may be indicative of underlying exhaustion of the HPA axis - predicted an unfavorable course trajectory.

CRF test in melancholic depressive patients with partial versus complete relapses: a 2-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Patients with depressive disorders present abnormalities in the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis. The effects of a partial relapse with regard to HPA axis has not been studied so far.

AIM

To assess whether patients with partial relapse have a different neuroendocrine profile compared with those with complete relapse and with those without relapse over a 2-year follow-up.

METHODS

The adrenocorticotropin hormone (ACTH) and cortisol responses to corticotrophin releasing factor (CRF) stimulation was assessed in 62 outpatients diagnosed with unipolar depressive disorder with melancholic features according to DSM-IV. Twenty-three healthy controls were included in the study for comparison. Monthly follow-up visits were performed over a 2-year period after remission; partial and complete relapses were established using the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) and according to Frank's criteria. Fifty-four patients completed the study. A comparative statistical analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Stratifying the net area under cortisol curve (NAUCC) (µg/ml/min) at three levels-< 150, 150-350 and ≤ 350-significant differences appear between the three depressive groups of patients (non-relapsers, partial relapsers and complete relapsers). Particularly, there are more patients with a NAUCC ≤ 350 who show partial or complete relapses than patients with a NAUCC ≤ 350 who do not relapse (P ≤ 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show an increasingly altered HPA axis in those depressive patients with complete or partial relapses compared with those who did not relapse or with healthy controls, but there are not differences in HPA axis between partial and complete relapsers.

Relationship between a history of a suicide attempt and treatment outcomes in patients with depression

This study aimed to investigate the sociodemographic and clinical correlates of a history of a suicide attempt in people with depression and their relationship with treatment outcomes and subsequent suicidal ideation and deliberate self-harm. Patients with depressive disorders according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, were recruited from 18 hospitals across South Korea. Data on sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were obtained, and scales assessing depression, anxiety, and general functioning were administered during the first 12 weeks of antidepressant treatment. Baseline characteristics, responses to treatment, and suicidal ideation/deliberate self-harm during the follow-up period were compared according to a reported history or not of a suicide attempt. In a total of 723 participants, 143 (19.8%) with a history of a suicide attempt had an earlier age of onset, longer duration of illness, and a greater number of depressive episodes. Levels of depression and anxiety were significantly higher at baseline in this group who also experienced significantly lower remission and response rates, as well as longer time to remission. The case group was more likely to experience new suicidal ideation and carry out a deliberate self-harm act during the 12-week treatment period. In conclusion, a history of a suicide attempt in a Korean population with depression was characterized by more severe psychopathology, poorer treatment outcomes, and higher subsequent suicidal ideation and self-harm. Therefore, more intensive and longer-term treatment with particular ongoing clinical attention to risk is indicated in patients with these distinct, chronic, and severe forms of depression and ongoing high suicide risk.