A stochastic model for the assessment of the transmission pathways of heart and skeleton muscle inflammation, pancreas disease and infectious salmon anaemia in marine fish farms in Norway

Introduction and temporospatial tracing of piscine orthoreovirus-1 (PRV-1) in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) after local fallowing

Piscine orthoreovirus-1 (PRV-1) is a prevalent agent in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and the causative agent of heart and skeletal muscle inflammation (HSMI), an important disease in farmed Atlantic salmon. Investigations into the introduction and dissemination routes of PRV-1 in a field setting have been limited. This study aimed to better understand PRV-1 infections and HSMI-associated mortality under field conditions. We tracked introduction and spread of PRV-1 over one production cycle in a geographically isolated region in Norwegian aquaculture. From five sites, a total of 32 virus isolates were sequenced and genogrouped. The results indicated multiple introductions of PRV-1 to the area, but also revealed a high level of genetic homogeneity among the virus variants. The variants differed from that of the previous production cycle at two out of three sites investigated, suggesting that synchronized fallowing can be a useful tool for preventing dissemination of PRV-1 between generations of fish. Exposure to PRV-1 at the freshwater stage was identified as a potential source of introduction. A low level of HSMI-associated mortality was observed at all sites, with the onset of mortality showing some variation across PRV-1 genogroups. However, the study highlighted the complexity of associating viral genogroups with mortality in a field setting. Overall, this study contributes valuable insights into PRV-1 dynamics in a real-world aquaculture setting, offering potential strategies for disease management and prevention.

Effect of pancreas disease vaccines on infection levels and virus transmission in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) challenged with salmonid alphavirus, genotype 2

Salmonid alphavirus (SAV) causes pancreas disease (PD), which negatively impacts farmed Atlantic salmon. In this study, fish were vaccinated with a DNA-PD vaccine (DNA-PD) and an oil-adjuvanted, inactivated whole virus PD vaccine (Oil-PD). Controls were two non-PD vaccinated groups. Fish were kept in one tank and challenged by cohabitation with SAV genotype 2 in seawater. Protection against infection and mortality was assessed for 84 days (Efficacy study). Nineteen days post challenge (dpc), subgroups of fish from all treatment groups were transferred to separate tanks and cohabited with naïve fish (Transmission study 1) or fish vaccinated with a homologous vaccine (Transmission study 2), to evaluate virus transmission for 26 days (47 dpc). Viremia, heart RT-qPCR and histopathological scoring of key organs affected by PD were used to measure infection levels. RT-droplet digital PCR quantified shedding of SAV into water for transmission studies. The Efficacy study showed that PD associated growth-loss was significantly lower and clearance of SAV2 RNA significantly higher in the PD-DNA group compared to the other groups. The PD-DNA group had milder lesions in the heart and muscle. Cumulative mortality post challenge was low and not different between groups, but the DNA-PD group had delayed time-to-death. In Transmission study 1, the lowest water levels of SAV RNA were measured in the tanks containing the DNA-PD group at 21 and 34 dpc. Despite this, and irrespective of the treatment group, SAV2 was effectively transmitted to the naïve fish during 26-day cohabitation. At 47 dpc, the SAV RNA concentrations in the water were lower in all tanks compared to 34 dpc. In Transmission study 2, none of the DNA-PD immunized cohabitants residing with DNA-PD-vaccinated, pre-challenged fish got infected. In contrast, Oil-PD immunized cohabitants residing with Oil-PD-vaccinated, pre-challenged fish, showed infection levels similar to the naïve cohabitants in Transmission study 1. The results demonstrate that the DNA-PD vaccine may curb the spread of SAV infection as the DNA-PD vaccinated, SAV2 exposed fish, did not spread the infection to cohabiting DNA-PD vaccinated fish. This signifies that herd immunity may be achieved by the DNA-PD vaccine, a valuable tool to control the PD epizootic in farmed Atlantic salmon.

Realtime case study simulations of transmission of Pancreas Disease (PD) in Norwegian salmonid farming for disease control purposes

Pancreas Disease (PD) is a viral disease caused by Salmonid Alphavirus (SAV). It affects farmed salmonids in the North Atlantic, and leads to reduced feed intake and increased mortality with reduced production and welfare as a consequence. In 2013, the estimated cost of an outbreak on an average salmon farm was about 6.6 mil €. In Norway, PD has been notifiable since 2008, and regulations to mitigate disease spread are in place. However, despite the regulations, 140-170 farms are affected by PD every year. The aquaculture industry is growing continuously, introducing farms in new geographical areas, and fish are moved between hydrographically separated zones for trade and slaughter. All such movements and relocations need to be approved by the competent authorities. Thus, there is a demand for support to farmers and competent authorities when making decisions on disease management and especially on the effect of moving infected fish. We have used a disease-transmission model for outbreak-simulation in real time for assessing the probability of disease transmission from a farm that gets infected with PD. We have also simulated the effects of three different control-regimes: no stamping-out, delayed stamping-out or immediate stamping-out, on the transmission of PD to surrounding farms. Simulations showed that the immediate stamping out of an infected farm led to effective containment of an outbreak. No stamping out led to up to 32.1% of farms within 100 km of the index farm to become effected. We have used real production data for the model building and the scenario simulations, and the results illustrate that a risk assessment of horizontal disease transmission must be undertaken on a case-by-case basis, because the time and place of the outbreak has a large influence on the risk of transmission.

Early detection of salmonid alphavirus in seawater from marine farm sites of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

The traditional strategy for national surveillance of salmonid alphavirus (SAV) infection in Norwegian fish farms relies on a costly, time-consuming, and resource-demanding approach based on the monthly sampling of fish from all marine farms with salmonids. In order to develop an alternative surveillance method, a water filtration method was tested in parallel with the ongoing surveillance program at 7 Norwegian marine farm sites of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. with no current suspicion of SAV infection. During the period from May 2019 to January 2020, seawater samples were collected from the top layer water inside all net-pens at these 7 sites. The samples were concentrated for SAV by filtration through an MF-Millipore™ electronegative membrane filter, followed by rinsing with NucliSENS® Lysis Buffer, before RNA extraction and analysis by RT-qPCR. SAV was detected from seawater at an earlier stage compared to traditional sampling methods, at all sites where the fish tested positive for SAV. A significant negative relationship was observed at all sites between the SAV concentration found in seawater samples and the number of days until SAV was detected in the fish. This means that the fewer the SAV particles in the seawater, the more days it took until SAV was detected in the fish samples. Based on this, sampling of seawater every month for the surveillance of SAV has a great potential as an alternative method for early detection of SAV in Atlantic salmon farms.

DTU-DADS-Aqua: A simulation framework for modelling waterborne spread of highly infectious pathogens in marine aquaculture

Simulation models are useful tools to predict and elucidate the effects of factors influencing the occurrence and spread of epidemics in animal populations, evaluate the effectiveness of different control strategies and ultimately inform decision-makers about mitigations to reduce risk. There is a paucity of simulation models to study waterborne transmission of viral and bacterial pathogens in marine environments. We developed a stochastic, spatiotemporal hybrid simulation model (DTU-DADS-Aqua) that incorporates a compartmental model for infection spread within net-pens, an agent-based model for infection spread between net-pens within and between sites and uses seaway distance to inform farm-site hydroconnectivity. The model includes processes to simulate infection transmission and control over surveillance, detection and depopulation measures. Different what-if scenarios can be explored according to the input data provided and user-defined parameter values, such as daily surveillance and depopulation capacities or increased animal mortality that triggers diagnostic testing to detect infection. The latter can be easily defined in a software application, in which results are summarized after each simulation. To demonstrate capabilities of the model, we simulated the spread of infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAv) for realistic scenarios in a transboundary population of farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in New Brunswick, Canada and Maine, United States. We assessed the progression of infection in the different simulated outbreak scenarios, allowing for variation in the control strategies adopted for ISAv. Model results showed that improved disease detection, coupled with increasing surveillance visits to farm-sites and increased culling capacity for depopulation of infected net-pens reduced the number of infected net-pens and outbreak duration but the number of ISA-infected farm sites was minimally affected. DTU-DADS-Aqua is a flexible modelling framework, which can be applied to study different infectious diseases in the aquatic environment, allowing the incorporation of alternative transmission and control dynamics. The framework is open-source and available at https://github.com/upei-aqua/DTU-DADS-Aqua.

Challenges and Solutions to Viral Diseases of Finfish in Marine Aquaculture

Aquaculture is the fastest food-producing sector in the world, accounting for one-third of global food production. As is the case with all intensive farming systems, increase in infectious diseases has adversely impacted the growth of marine fish farming worldwide. Viral diseases cause high economic losses in marine aquaculture. We provide an overview of the major challenges limiting the control and prevention of viral diseases in marine fish farming, as well as highlight potential solutions. The major challenges include increase in the number of emerging viral diseases, wild reservoirs, migratory species, anthropogenic activities, limitations in diagnostic tools and expertise, transportation of virus contaminated ballast water, and international trade. The proposed solutions to these problems include developing biosecurity policies at global and national levels, implementation of biosecurity measures, vaccine development, use of antiviral drugs and probiotics to combat viral infections, selective breeding of disease-resistant fish, use of improved diagnostic tools, disease surveillance, as well as promoting the use of good husbandry and management practices. A multifaceted approach combining several control strategies would provide more effective long-lasting solutions to reduction in viral infections in marine aquaculture than using a single disease control approach like vaccination alone.

Aquaculture mediates global transmission of a viral pathogen to wild salmon

Global expansion of aquaculture and agriculture facilitates disease emergence and catalyzes transmission to sympatric wildlife populations. The health of wild salmon stocks critically concerns Indigenous peoples, commercial and recreational fishers, and the general public. Despite potential impact of viral pathogens such as Piscine orthoreovirus-1 (PRV-1) on endangered wild salmon populations, their epidemiology in wild fish populations remains obscure, as does the role of aquaculture in global and local spread. Our phylogeographic analyses of PRV-1 suggest that development of Atlantic salmon aquaculture facilitated spread from Europe to the North and South East Pacific. Phylogenetic analysis and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction surveillance further illuminate the circumstances of emergence of PRV-1 in the North East Pacific and provide strong evidence for Atlantic salmon aquaculture as a source of infection in wild Pacific salmon. PRV-1 is now an important infectious agent in critically endangered wild Pacific salmon populations, fueled by aquacultural transmission.

Seawater transmission and infection dynamics of pilchard orthomyxovirus (POMV) in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

The Tasmanian salmon industry had remained relatively free of major viral diseases until the emergence of pilchard orthomyxovirus (POMV). Originally isolated from wild pilchards, POMV is of concern to the industry as it can cause high mortality in farmed salmon (Salmo salar). Field observations suggest the virus can spread from pen to pen and between farms, but evidence of passive transmission in sea water was unclear. Our aim was to establish whether direct contact between infected and naïve fish was required for transmission, and to examine viral infection dynamics. Atlantic salmon post-smolts were challenged with POMV by either direct exposure via cohabitation or indirect exposure via virus-contaminated sea water. POMV was transmissible in sea water and direct contact between fish was not required for infection. Head kidney and heart presented the highest viral loads in early stages of infection. POMV survivors presented low viral loads in most tissues, but these remained relatively high in gills. A consistent feature was the infiltration of viral-infected melanomacrophages in different tissues, suggesting an important role of these in the immune response to POMV. Understanding POMV transmission and host-pathogen interactions is key for the development of improved surveillance tools, transmission models and ultimately for disease prevention.

Connectivity-based risk ranking of infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAv) outbreaks for targeted surveillance planning in Canada and the USA

Infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) can be a serious viral disease of farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). A tool to rank susceptible farms based on the risk of ISA virus (ISAv) infection spread from infectious farms after initial incursion or re-occurrence in an endemic area, can help guide monitoring and surveillance activities. Such a tool could also support the response strategy to contain virus spread, given available resources. We developed a tool to rank ISAv infection risks using seaway distance and hydrodynamic information separately and combined. The models were validated using 2002-2004 ISAv outbreak data for 30 farms (24 in New Brunswick, Canada and 6 in Maine, United States). Time sequence of infection spread was determined from the outbreak data that included monthly infection status of the cages on these farms. The first infected farm was considered as the index site for potential spread of ISAv to all other farms. To assess the risk of ISAv spreading to susceptible farms, the second and subsequent infected farms were identified using the farm status in the given time period and all infected farms from the previous time periods. Using the three models (hydrodynamic only, seaway-distance, and combined hydrodynamic-seaway-distance based models), we ranked susceptible farms within each time interval by adding the transmission risks from surrounding infected farms and sorting them from highest to lowest. To explore the potential efficiency of targeted sampling, we converted rankings to percentiles and assessed the model's predictive performance by comparing farms identified as high risk based on the rank with those that were infected during the next time interval as observed in the outbreak data. The overall predictive ability of the models was compared using area under the ROC curve (AUC). Farms that become infected in the next period were always within the top 65% of the rank predicted by our models. The overall predictive ability of the combined (hydrodynamic-seaway-distance based model) model (AUC = 0.833) was similar to the model that only used seaway distance (AUC = 0.827). Such models can aid in effective surveillance planning by balancing coverage (number of farms included in surveillance) against the desired level of confidence of including all farms that become infected in the next time period. Our results suggest that 100% of the farms that become infected in the next time period could be targeted in a surveillance program, although at a significant cost of including many false positives.

The epidemiology of pancreas disease in salmonid aquaculture: a summary of the current state of knowledge

Pancreas disease (PD) is a viral disease caused by Salmonid alphavirus (SAV) that affects farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum)) in the seawater phase. Since its first description in Scotland in 1976, a large number of studies have been conducted relating to the disease itself and to factors contributing to agent spread and disease occurrence. This paper summarizes the currently available, scientific information on the epidemiology of PD and its associated mitigation and control measures. Available literature shows infected farmed salmonids to be the main reservoir of SAV. Transmission between seawater sites occurs mainly passively by water currents or actively through human activity coupled with inadequate biosecurity measures. All available information suggests that the current fallowing procedures are adequate to prevent agent survival within the environment through the fallowing period and thus that a repeated disease outbreak at the same site is due to a new agent introduction. There has been no scientific evaluation of currently used on-site biosecurity measures, and there is limited information on the impact of available mitigation measures and control strategies.

Partially observed epidemics in wildlife hosts: modelling an outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic, June 2013-2014

Morbilliviruses cause major mortality in marine mammals, but the dynamics of transmission and persistence are ill understood compared to terrestrial counterparts such as measles; this is especially true for epidemics in cetaceans. However, the recent outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean can provide new insights into the epidemiology and spatio-temporal spread of this pathogen. To deal with uncertainties surrounding the ecology of this system (only stranded animals were observed), we develop a statistical framework that can extract key information about the underlying transmission process given only sparse data. Our self-exciting Poisson process model suggests that individuals are infectious for at most 24 days and can transfer infection up to two latitude degrees (220 km) within this time. In addition, the effective reproduction number is generally below one, but reaches 2.6 during a period of heightened stranding numbers near Virginia Beach, Virginia, in summer 2013. Network analysis suggests local movements dominate spatial spread, with seasonal migration facilitating wider dissemination along the coast. Finally, a low virus transmission rate or high levels of pre-existing immunity can explain the lack of viral spread into the Gulf of Mexico. More generally, our approach illustrates novel methodologies for analysing very indirectly observed epidemics.

Liquid fat, a potential abiotic vector for horizontal transmission of salmonid alphavirus?

Viral diseases represent serious challenge in marine farming of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L). Pancreas disease (PD) caused by a salmonid alphavirus (SAV) is by far the most serious in northern Europe. To control PD, it is necessary to identify virus transmission routes. One aspect to consider is whether the virus is transported as free particles or associated with potential vectors. Farmed salmonids have high lipid content in their tissue which may be released into the environment from decomposing dead fish. At the seawater surface, the effects of wind and ocean currents are most prominent. The aim of this study was primarily to identify whether the lipid fraction leaking from dead infected salmon contains SAV. Adipose tissue from dead SAV-infected fish from three farming sites was submerged in beakers with sea water in the laboratory and stored at different temperature and time conditions. SAV was identified by real-time RT-PCR in the lipid fractions accumulating at the water surface in the beakers. SAV-RNA was also present in the sea water. Lipid fractions were transferred to cell culture, and viable SAV was identified. Due to its hydrophobic nature, fat with infective pathogenic virus at the surface may contribute to long-distance transmission of SAV.

Chemical Synthesis and In Vitro Evaluation of a Phage Display-Derived Peptide Active against Infectious Salmon Anemia Virus

Infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) is the etiological agent of the disease by the same name and causes major losses in the salmon industry worldwide. Epizootic ISAV outbreaks have occurred in Norway and, to a lesser degree, in Canada. In 2007, an ISAV outbreak in Chile destroyed most of the seasonal production and endangered the entire Chilean salmon industry. None of the existing prophylactic approaches have demonstrated efficacy in providing absolute protection from or even a palliative effect on ISAV proliferation. Sanitary control measures for ISAV, based on molecular epidemiology data, have proven insufficient, mainly due to high salmon culture densities and a constant presence of a nonpathogenic strain of the virus. This report describes an alternative treatment approach based on interfering peptides selected from a phage display library. The screening of a phage display heptapeptide library resulted in the selection of a novel peptide with significant in vitro antiviral activity against ISAV. This peptide specifically interacted with the viral hemagglutinin-esterase protein, thereby impairing virus binding, with plaque reduction assays showing a significant reduction in viral yields. The identified peptide acts at micromolar concentrations against at least two different pathogenic strains of the virus, without detectable cytotoxic effects on the tested fish cells. Therefore, antiviral peptides represent a novel alternative for controlling ISAV and, potentially, other fish pathogens.

IMPORTANCE

Identifying novel methods for the efficient control of infectious diseases is imperative for the future of global aquaculture. The present study used a phage display heptapeptide library to identify a peptide with interfering activity against a key protein of the infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV). A piscine orthomyxovirus, ISAV is a continuous threat to the commercial sustainability of cultured salmon production worldwide. The complex epidemiological strategy of this pathogen has made prophylactic control extremely difficult. The identified antiviral peptide efficiently impairs ISAV infection in vitro by specifically blocking hemagglutinin-esterase, a pivotal surface protein of this virus. Peptide synthesis could further modify the primary structure of the identified peptide to improve specific activity and stability. The present results form the foundation for developing a new pharmacological treatment against ISAV.

Surveillance of the Sensitivity towards Antiparasitic Bath-Treatments in the Salmon Louse (Lepeophtheirus salmonis)

The evolution of drug resistant parasitic sea lice is of major concern to the salmon farming industry worldwide and challenges sustainable growth of this enterprise. To assess current status and development of L. salmonis sensitivity towards different pesticides used for parasite control in Norwegian salmon farming, a national surveillance programme was implemented in 2013. The programme aims to summarize data on the use of different pesticides applied to control L. salmonis and to test L. salmonis sensitivity to different pesticides in farms along the Norwegian coast. Here we analyse two years of test-data from biological assays designed to detect sensitivity-levels towards the pesticides azamethiphos and deltamethrin, both among the most common pesticides used in bath-treatments of farmed salmon in Norway in later years. The focus of the analysis is on how different variables predict the binomial outcome of the bioassay tests, being whether L. salmonis are immobilized/die or survive pesticide exposure. We found that local kernel densities of bath treatments, along with a spatial geographic index of test-farm locations, were significant predictors of the binomial outcome of the tests. Furthermore, the probability of L. salmonis being immobilized/dead after test-exposure was reduced by odds-ratios of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.42–0.86) for 2014 compared to 2013 and 0.39 (95% CI: 0.36–0.42) for low concentration compared to high concentration exposure. There were also significant but more marginal effects of parasite gender and developmental stage, and a relatively large random effect of test-farm. We conclude that the present data support an association between local intensities of bath treatments along the coast and the outcome of bioassay tests where salmon lice are exposed to azamethiphos or deltamethrin. Furthermore, there is a predictable structure of L. salmonis phenotypes along the coast in the data, characterized by high susceptibility to pesticides in the far north and far south, but low susceptibility in mid Norway. The study emphasizes the need to address local susceptibility to pesticides and the need for restrictive use of pesticides to preserve treatment efficacy.

Genetic characterization of salmonid alphavirus in Norway

Pancreas disease (PD), caused by salmonid alphavirus subtype 3 (SAV3), emerged in Norwegian aquaculture in the 1980s and is now endemic along the south-western coast. In 2011, the first cases of PD caused by marine salmonid alphavirus subtype 2 (SAV2) were reported. This subtype has spread rapidly among the fish farms outside the PD-endemic zone and is responsible for disease outbreaks at an increasing numbers of sites. To describe the geographical distribution of salmonid alphavirus (SAV), and to assess the time and site of introduction of marine SAV2 to Norway, an extensive genetic characterization including more than 200 SAV-positive samples from 157 Norwegian marine production sites collected from May 2007 to December 2012 was executed. The first samples positive for marine SAV2 originated from Romsdal, in June 2010. Sequence analysis of the E2 gene revealed that all marine SAV2 included in this study were nearly identical, suggesting a single introduction into Norwegian aquaculture. Further, this study provides evidence of a separate geographical distribution of two subtypes in Norway. SAV3 is present in south-western Norway, and marine SAV2 circulates in north-western and Mid-Norway, a geographical area which since 2010 constitutes the endemic zone for marine SAV2.

Orthomyxoviruses of Fish

The family Orthomyxoviridae is well known for containing influenza viruses with a segmented RNA genome that is prone to gene reassortment in mixed infections (known as antigenic shift) resulting in new virus subtypes that cause pandemics, and cumulative mutations (known as antigenic drift), resulting in new virus strains that cause epidemics. This family also contains infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) and tilapia lake virus (TiLV), which are a unique orthomyxoviruses that infect fish and is unable to replicate above room temperature (24°C). This chapter describes the comparative virology of members in the family Orthomyxoviridae in general, helping to understand the emergent teleost orthomyxoviruses, ISAV and TiLV. The most current information on virus–host interactions of the fish orthomyxoviruses, particularly ISAV, as they relate to variations in virus structure, virulence, persistence, host range and immunological aspects is presented in detail.

Routine clinical inspections in Norwegian marine salmonid sites: A key role in surveillance for freedom from pathogenic viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS)

Since the mid-1980s, clinical inspections of aquaculture sites carried out on a regular basis by authorized veterinarians and fish health biologists (known as fish health services: FHS) have been an essential part of aquatic animal health surveillance in Norway. The aims of the present study were (1) to evaluate the performance of FHS routine clinical inspections for the detection of VHS and (2) to explore the effectiveness of risk-based prioritisation of FHS inspections for demonstrating freedom from VHS in marine salmonid sites in Norway. A stochastic simulation model was developed to estimate site sensitivity (SeS), population sensitivity (SeP), and probability of freedom (PFree). The estimation of SeS takes into consideration the probability that FHS submit samples if a site is infected, the probability that a sample is tested if submitted, the effective probability of infection in fish with clinical signs, laboratory test sensitivity, and the number of tested samples. SeP and PFree were estimated on a monthly basis over a 12 month period for six alternative surveillance scenarios and included the risk factors: region, species, area production density, and biosecurity level. Model results indicate that the current surveillance system, based on routine inspections by the FHS has a high capability for detecting VHS and that there is a high probability of freedom from VHS in Norwegian marine farmed salmonids (PFree >95%). Sensitivity analysis identified the probabilities that samples are submitted and submitted samples are tested, as the most influential input variables. The model provides a supporting tool for evaluation of potential changes in the surveillance strategy, and can be viewed as a platform for similar exotic viral infectious diseases in marine salmonid farming in Norway, if they share similar risk factors.

Space-time modelling of the spread of pancreas disease (PD) within and between Norwegian marine salmonid farms

Infectious diseases are a constant threat to industrialised farming, which is characterised by high densities of farms and farm animals. Several mathematical and statistical models on spatio-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases in various farmed host populations have been developed during the last decades. Here we present a spatio-temporal stochastic model for the spread of a disease between and within aquaculture farms. The spread between farms is divided into several transmission pathways, including (i) distance related spread and (ii) other types of contagious contacts. The within-farm infection dynamics is modelled by a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. We apply this framework to model the spread of pancreas disease (PD) in salmon farming, using data covering all farms producing salmonids over 9 years in Norway. The motivation for the study was partly to unravel the spatio-temporal dynamics of PD in salmon farming and partly to use the model for scenario simulation of PD control strategies. We find, for example, that within-farm infection dynamics vary with season and we provide estimates of the timing from unobserved infection events to disease outbreaks on farms are detected. The simulations suggest that if a strategy involving culling of infectious cohorts is implemented, the number of detected disease outbreaks per year may be reduced by 57% after the full effect has been reached. We argue that the high detail and coverage of data on salmonid production and disease occurrence should encourage the use of simulation modelling as a means of testing effects of extensive control measures before they are implemented in the salmon farming industry.

Clinical manifestations of pancreas disease outbreaks in Norwegian marine salmon farming - variations due to salmonid alphavirus subtype

Pancreas disease (PD) in Norwegian salmonid aquaculture has traditionally been caused by salmonid alphavirus (SAV) subtype 3. Following the isolation of a novel SAV subtype in 2010, marine SAV2, two separate endemic areas have developed. It has been debated whether disease outbreaks due to marine SAV2 result in milder clinical manifestations compared to outbreaks caused by SAV3. The aim of this study was to descriptively investigate site-level differences in the clinical manifestations of marine SAV2 and SAV3 at Norwegian seawater sites diagnosed with PD in 2012. The findings suggest that Norwegian PD outbreaks caused by marine SAV2 result in lower mortality and milder clinical signs compared to outbreaks caused by SAV3. For sites without reported PD-related mortality, there was no difference in the mortality levels between sites infected by marine SAV2 and SAV3. The results also indicate that there are no differences in grading quality at slaughter between the SAV subtypes.

Seasonal increase in sea temperature triggers pancreas disease outbreaks in Norwegian salmon farms

Pancreas disease (PD) is a viral disease causing negative impacts on economy of salmon farms and fish welfare. Its transmission route is horizontal, and water transport by ocean currents is an important factor for transmission. In this study, the effect of temperature changes on PD dynamics in the field has been analysed for the first time. To identify the potential time of exposure to the virus causing PD, a hydrodynamic current model was used. A cohort of salmon was assumed to be infected the month it was exposed to virus from other infective cohorts by estimated water contact. The number of months from exposure to outbreak defined the incubation period, which was used in this investigation to explore the relationship between temperature changes and PD dynamics. The time of outbreak was identified by peak in mortality based on monthly records from active sites. Survival analysis demonstrated that cohorts exposed to virus at decreasing sea temperature had a significantly longer incubation period than cohorts infected when the sea temperature was increasing. Hydrodynamic models can provide information on the risk of being exposed to pathogens from neighbouring farms. With the knowledge of temperature-dependent outbreak probability, the farmers can emphasize prophylactic management, avoid stressful operations until the sea temperature is decreasing and consider removal of cohorts at risk, if possible.

Infectious salmon anemia (ISA) virus: infectivity in seawater under different physical conditions

Infectious salmon anemia (ISA) virus (genus Isavirus, family Orthomyxoviridae), present in all major salmon producing countries, is the causative agent for a serious and commercially important disease affecting Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar. Nearly all ISA outbreaks occur in the marine production phase and knowledge about survival time for ISA virions in seawater is crucial for an adequate strategy to combat the disease. To acquire knowledge about this important factor, a study of ISA virus exposed to four different physical conditions was carried out. The virions' survival was tested in sterile seawater, sterile seawater with normal ultraviolet light radiation (UVR), natural seawater, and natural seawater with UVR. During the 72-h experiment both presence of ISA virus RNA and the infectivity of ISA virions were monitored. The result of this study showed that the infectivity of ISA virions is lost within 3 h of exposure to natural seawater or sterile seawater with UVR. However, it was possible to detect ISA virus RNA throughout the experimental period. This indicates that the effect of both UVR and biological activity of natural seawater limits the survival time of ISA virions under normal conditions. The survival time of ISA virions in sterile seawater was less than 24 h. Based on the available literature and the present study it is not very likely that passive horizontal transmission in seawater over long distances can occur. This is due to the following factors: (1) the effect of UVR and biological activity on ISA virions infectivity found in the present study, (2) the speed and dilution effect in seawater currents in salmon farming areas, (3) the temperature during the major outbreak periods, and (4) the need for an infective dose of ISA virions to reach naive Atlantic Salmon.

Transmission dynamics of pancreas disease (PD) in a Norwegian fjord: aspects of water transport, contact networks and infection pressure among salmon farms

Pancreas disease (PD) in marine salmon farming is caused by salmon pancreas disease virus (SPDV). Virus survival, infection pressure and contact networks among farms influence the potential of PD to spread. The present study aims to explore contact networks and infection pressure and their ability to explain transmission dynamics of PD in a Norwegian fjord. In this study, we included all records of PD by subtype 3 (SPDV3) in the study population from the first reported in August 2006 to the last reported in November 2009. Using logistic regression analyses, we found that contact network by water transport explained better transmission of PD than contact networks defined by ownership or close distance to infected farms. Hydrodynamic modelling can be a valuable tool to forecast the spread of PD and thereby take actions to reduce the transmission. Knowing the risk of getting infected, it is important to avoid water transport from infected farms when new cohorts are transferred to sea water, and to have conscious control regarding management operations between farms.

Phylogenetic evidence of long distance dispersal and transmission of piscine reovirus (PRV) between farmed and wild Atlantic salmon

The extent and effect of disease interaction and pathogen exchange between wild and farmed fish populations is an ongoing debate and an area of research that is difficult to explore. The objective of this study was to investigate pathogen transmission between farmed and wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) populations in Norway by means of molecular epidemiology. Piscine reovirus (PRV) was selected as the model organism as it is widely distributed in both farmed and wild Atlantic salmon in Norway, and because infection not necessarily will lead to mortality through development of disease. A matrix comprised of PRV protein coding sequences S1, S2 and S4 from wild, hatchery-reared and farmed Atlantic salmon in addition to one sea-trout (Salmo trutta L.) was examined. Phylogenetic analyses based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference indicate long distance transport of PRV and exchange of virus between populations. The results are discussed in the context of Atlantic salmon ecology and the structure of the Norwegian salmon industry. We conclude that the lack of a geographical pattern in the phylogenetic trees is caused by extensive exchange of PRV. In addition, the detailed topography of the trees indicates long distance transportation of PRV. Through its size, structure and infection status, the Atlantic salmon farming industry has the capacity to play a central role in both long distance transportation and transmission of pathogens. Despite extensive migration, wild salmon probably play a minor role as they are fewer in numbers, appear at lower densities and are less likely to be infected. An open question is the relationship between the PRV sequences found in marine fish and those originating from salmon.

Space-time modelling of the spread of salmon lice between and within Norwegian marine salmon farms

Parasitic salmon lice are potentially harmful to salmonid hosts and farm produced lice pose a threat to wild salmonids. To control salmon lice infections in Norwegian salmonid farming, numbers of lice are regularly counted and lice abundance is reported from all salmonid farms every month. We have developed a stochastic space-time model where monthly lice abundance is modelled simultaneously for all farms. The set of farms is regarded as a network where the degree of contact between farms depends on their seaway distance. The expected lice abundance at each farm is modelled as a function of i) lice abundance in previous months at the same farm, ii) at neighbourhood farms, and iii) other, unspecified sources. In addition, the model includes explanatory variables such as seawater temperature and farm-numbers of fish. The model gives insight into factors that affect salmon lice abundance and contributing sources of infection. New findings in this study were that 66% of the expected salmon lice abundance was attributed to infection within farms, 28% was attributed to infection from neighbourhood farms and 6% to non-specified sources of infection. Furthermore, we present the relative risk of infection between neighbourhood farms as a function of seaway distance, which can be viewed as a between farm transmission kernel for salmon lice. The present modelling framework lays the foundation for development of future scenario simulation tools for examining the spread and abundance of salmon lice on farmed salmonids under different control regimes.

A comparison of modelling approaches to assess the transmission of pathogens between Scottish fish farms: the role of hydrodynamics and site biomass

Scotland is the largest Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) producer in the EU with an output of over 150,000 t, contributing over £500 million annually towards the economy. Production continues to increase, predominantly due to the increase in output per farm and reduction in losses due to infectious diseases. Farms are grouped within disease management areas whose boundaries are defined by where the closest pair of farms is separated by more than twice the tidal excursion distance (TE) Tidal excursion is defined as 7.2 km in mainland Scotland, or 3.6 km in the Shetland Islands). The majority of salmon farms are located within relatively sheltered inshore areas where non-tidal advective current speed is minimal. However there is an aspiration for offshore production where it might be possible to increase stocking levels and where current speeds will be greater so TE models could break down. Separation distances whereby farms would avoid infection risk were obtained using an analytical, discrete-time Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model coupled with a hydrodynamic transport expression representing transmission of pathogenic agents between fish farms. The model incorporated transmission, expression and recovery parameters as well as pathogen shedding and decay. The simplified hydrodynamic model incorporated residual advection, tidal advection and turbulent diffusion elements. The obtained separation distances were compared to a computationally intensive, numerical model and were demonstrated to be comparable, although the analytical model underestimated the variation within the transmission distances. Applying characteristics for a robust pathogen, infectious pancreatic necrosis virus type (IPNV-type), and less robust pathogens such as infectious salmon anaemia virus type (ISAV-type) and Aeromonas salmonicida type (AS-type) pathogens, it was possible to obtain separation distances whereby farms avoided infection. Simulation outputs indicated that separation distances should increase to avoid disease as farm size and current speed increase. The more conserved IPNV-type pathogen required separation distances of hundreds of kilometres, AS-type required tens of kilometres, whilst the distances for ISAV-type were within the scale of the current DMAs, that were developed for ISAV control. However, should production be moved to areas of faster moving currents and increased farm production the current disease management area principles might need readdressing.

Geographical distribution of salmonid alphavirus subtypes in marine farmed Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., in Scotland and Ireland

Sequence data from salmonid alphavirus (SAV) strains obtained from farmed marine Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L. , over a 20-year period between 1991 and 2011 was reviewed to examine the geographical distribution of the genetically defined SAV subtypes in twelve regions across Ireland and Scotland. Of 160 different Atlantic salmon SAV strains examined, 62 belonged to subtype 1, 28 to subtype 2, 34 to subtype 4, 35 to subtype 5 and 1 to subtype 6. SAV subtypes 1, 4 and 6 were found in Ireland, while subtypes 1, 2, 4 and 5 were found in Scotland. In the majority of regions, there was a clear clustering of subtypes, with SAV subtype 1 being the dominant subtype in Ireland overall, as well as in Argyll and Bute in Scotland. SAV subtype 2 predominated in the Shetland and Orkney Islands. The emergence in Atlantic salmon of subtype 2 strains typically associated with sleeping disease in rainbow trout in Argyll and Bute, strongly suggesting transmission of infection between these species, was noted for the first time. SAV subtype 4 was the most common subtype found in the southern Western Isles, while SAV subtype 5 predominated in the northern Western Isles and north-west mainland Scotland. No single strain was dominant on sites in the western Highlands, with a number of sites in this region in particular having more than one subtype detected in different submissions. The significance of these results in relation to aspects of the epidemiology of infection, including transmission, biosecurity and wildlife reservoirs are discussed and knowledge gaps identified.

Risk map and spatial determinants of pancreas disease in the marine phase of Norwegian Atlantic salmon farming sites

Background

Outbreaks of pancreas disease (PD) greatly contribute to economic losses due to high mortality, control measures, interrupted production cycles, reduced feed conversion and flesh quality in the aquaculture industries in European salmon-producing countries. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate an effect of potential factors contributing to PD occurrence accounting for spatial congruity of neighboring infected sites, and then create quantitative risk maps for predicting PD occurrence. The study population included active Atlantic salmon farming sites located in the coastal area of 6 southern counties of Norway (where most of PD outbreaks have been reported so far) from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2010.

Results

Using a Bayesian modeling approach, with and without spatial component, the final model included site latitude, site density, PD history, and local biomass density. Clearly, the PD infected sites were spatially clustered; however, the cluster was well explained by the covariates of the final model. Based on the final model, we produced a map presenting the predicted probability of the PD occurrence in the southern part of Norway. Subsequently, the predictive capacity of the final model was validated by comparing the predicted probabilities with the observed PD outbreaks in 2011.

Conclusions

The framework of the study could be applied for spatial studies of other infectious aquatic animal diseases.

Risk mapping of heart and skeletal muscle inflammation in salmon farming

Heart and skeletal muscle inflammation (HSMI) is an infectious disease causing losses to the Norwegian salmon farming industry due to increased mortality and high morbidity in infected salmon. The disease is listed as a notifiable disease on list 3 (national list) by the Norwegian Food Safety Authority. HSMI is believed to be a viral disease, but the association to the recently discovered Piscine reovirus (PRV) remains unclear. Undoubtedly, other factors interact to determine whether PRV-infected fish develop disease or not. In this study, logistic regression was used to model the risk of an outbreak of HSMI at the cohort level, by including spatio-temporal risk factors. The data consisted of fish cohorts grown on geo-referenced farms from 2002 to 2010. The risk factors included were: infection pressure, cohort size (maximum number of fish), cohort index (smolt characteristics), cohort lifespan (months in sea) and a geo-index calculated as the position along a local polynomial regression line based on the longitude and latitude of each farm included in the study. The results showed that the risk of developing HSMI increased with increasing cohort lifespan, increasing infection pressure and increasing cohort size, and was mostly low for cohorts grown on farms in Southern-Norway, high for farms in Mid-Norway and variable for farms in Northern-Norway (based on the geo-index). The final model was used to explore three different scenarios with regards to the risk of developing HSMI, and to calculate the probability for each cohort of developing HSMI, independent of their actual disease-status. The model suggested that the probability of developing HSMI was much higher in Mid-Norway than in the rest of the country. Even though PRV seems to be widely distributed in the environment, the finding that infection pressure has a large influence on the probability of developing HSMI, suggests that it might be possible to reduce the number of clinical outbreaks, if measures are taken to reduce infection pressure. However, the prospects of controlling the spread of HSMI and reducing clinical outbreaks might be difficult because of indications of large distance spread of the disease.

Quantification of piscine reovirus (PRV) at different stages of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar production

The newly described piscine reovirus (PRV) appears to be associated with the development of heart and skeletal muscle inflammation (HSMI) in farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. PRV seems to be ubiquitous among fish in Norwegian salmon farms, but high viral loads and tissue distribution support a causal relationship between virus and disease. In order to improve understanding of the distribution of PRV in the salmon production line, we quantified PRV by using real-time PCR on heart samples collected at different points in the life cycle from pre-smolts to fish ready for slaughter. PRV positive pre-smolts were found in about 36% of the freshwater cohorts and a general increase in viral load was observed after their transfer to seawater. A reduction in viral loads was recorded when fish approached slaughter (18 mo in sea cages). Sequencing of positive samples did not support the hypothesis that outbreaks are caused by the spreading of a particular (virulent) strain of PRV.

Sea lice as a density-dependent constraint to salmonid farming

Fisheries catches worldwide have shown no increase over the last two decades, while aquaculture has been booming. To cover the demand for fish in the growing human population, continued high growth rates in aquaculture are needed. A potential constraint to such growth is infectious diseases, as disease transmission rates are expected to increase with increasing densities of farmed fish. Using an extensive dataset from all farms growing salmonids along the Norwegian coast, we document that densities of farmed salmonids surrounding individual farms have a strong effect on farm levels of parasitic sea lice and efforts to control sea lice infections. Furthermore, increased intervention efforts have been unsuccessful in controlling elevated infection levels in high salmonid density areas in 2009-2010. Our results emphasize host density effects of farmed salmonids on the population dynamics of sea lice and suggest that parasitic sea lice represent a potent negative feedback mechanism that may limit sustainable spatial densities of farmed salmonids.

Seasonality and heterogeneity of live fish movements in Scottish fish farms

Movement of live animals is a key contributor to disease spread. Farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, rainbow trout Onchorynchus mykiss and brown/sea trout Salmo trutta are initially raised in freshwater (FW) farms; all the salmon and some of the trout are subsequently moved to seawater (SW) farms. Frequently, fish are moved between farms during their FW stage and sometimes during their SW stage. Seasonality and differences in contact patterns across production phases have been shown to influence the course of an epidemic in livestock; however, these parameters have not been included in previous network models studying disease transmission in salmonids. In Scotland, farmers are required to register fish movements onto and off their farms; these records were used in the present study to investigate seasonality and heterogeneity of movements for each production phase separately for farmed salmon, rainbow trout and brown/sea trout. Salmon FW-FW and FW-SW movements showed a higher degree of heterogeneity in number of contacts and different seasonal patterns compared with SW-SW movements. FW-FW movements peaked from May to July and FW-SW movements peaked from March to April and from October to November. Salmon SW-SW movements occurred more consistently over the year and showed fewer connections and number of repeated connections between farms. Therefore, the salmon SW-SW network might be treated as homogeneous regarding the number of connections between farms and without seasonality. However, seasonality and production phase should be included in simulation models concerning FW-FW and FW-SW movements specifically. The number of rainbow trout FW-FW and brown/sea trout FW-FW movements were different from random. However, movements from other production phases were too low to discern a seasonal pattern or differences in contact pattern.

Modelling the spread of infectious salmon anaemia among salmon farms based on seaway distances between farms and genetic relationships between infectious salmon anaemia virus isolates

Infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) is an important infectious disease in Atlantic salmon farming causing recurrent epidemic outbreaks worldwide. The focus of this paper is on tracing the spread of ISA among Norwegian salmon farms. To trace transmission pathways for the ISA virus (ISAV), we use phylogenetic relationships between virus isolates in combination with space-time data on disease occurrences. The rate of ISA infection of salmon farms is modelled stochastically, where seaway distances between farms and genetic distances between ISAV isolates from infected farms play prominent roles. The model was fitted to data covering all cohorts of farmed salmon and the history of all farms with ISA between 2003 and summer 2009. Both seaway and genetic distances were significantly associated with the rate of ISA infection. The fitted model predicts that the risk of infection from a neighbourhood infectious farm decreases with increasing seaway distance between the two farms. Furthermore, for a given infected farm with a given ISAV genotype, the source of infection is significantly more likely to be ISAV of a small genetic distance than of moderate or large genetic distances. Nearly half of the farms with ISA in the investigated period are predicted to have been infected by an infectious farm in their neighbourhood, whereas the remaining half of the infected farms had unknown sources. For many of the neighbourhood infected farms, it was possible to point out one or a few infectious farms as the most probable sources of infection. This makes it possible to map probable infection pathways.

Use of molecular epidemiology to trace transmission pathways for infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) in Norwegian salmon farming

BACKGROUND

Infectious Salmon Anaemia (ISA) is a disease affecting farmed Atlantic salmon, and most salmon producing countries have experienced ISA outbreaks. The aim of the present study was to use epidemiological and viral sequence information to trace transmission pathways for ISA virus (ISAV) in Norwegian salmon farming.

METHODS

The study covers a period from January 2007 to July 2009 with a relatively high rate of ISA outbreaks, including a large cluster of outbreaks that emerged in Northern Norway (the North-cluster). Farms with ISA outbreaks and neighbouring salmon farms (At-risk-sites) were tested for the presence of ISAV, and epidemiological information was collected. ISAV hemagglutinin-esterase (HE) and fusion (F) protein genes were sequenced and phylogenetic analyses were performed. Associations between sequence similarities and salmon population data were analysed to substantiate possible transmission pathways.

RESULTS

There was a high degree of genetic similarity between ISAV isolates within the North-cluster. ISAV was detected in 12 of 28 At-risk-sites, and a high proportion of the viruses were identified as putative low virulent genotypes harbouring the full length highly polymorphic region (HPR); HPR0 of the HE protein and the amino acid glutamine (Q) in the F protein at position 266. The sequences from HPR0/F (Q(266)) genotypes revealed larger genetic variation, lower viral loads and lower prevalence of infection than HPR-deleted genotypes. Seaway distance between salmon farms was the only robust explanatory variable to explain genetic similarity between ISAV isolates.

DISCUSSION

We suggest that a single HPR-deleted genotype of ISAV has spread between salmon farms in the North-cluster. Furthermore, we find that HPR0/F (Q(266)) genotypes are frequently present in farmed populations of Atlantic salmon. From this, we anticipate a population dynamics of ISAV portrayed by low virulent genotypes occasionally transitioning into virulent genotypes, causing solitary outbreaks or local epidemics through local transmission.

The effectiveness of fallowing strategies in disease control in salmon aquaculture assessed with an SIS model

Salmon production is an important industry in Scotland, with an estimated retail value >£1 billion. However, this salmon industry can be threatened by the invasion and spread of diseases. To reduce this risk, the industry is divided into management areas that are physically separated from each other. Pathogens can spread between farms by local processes such as water movement or by long-distance processes such as live fish movements. Here, network modelling was used to investigate the importance of transmission routes at these two scales. We used different disease transmission rates (β), where infected farms had the probability of 0.10, 0.25 or 0.50 per month to infect each contacted farm. Interacting farms were modelled in such a way that neighbours within a management area could infect each other, resulting in two contacts per farm per month. In addition, non-local transmission occurred at random. Salmon are input to marine sites where they are raised to harvest size, the site is then fallowed; in the model the effects of different fallowing strategies (synchronised, partial synchronised and unsynchronised fallowing at the management area level) on the emergence of diseases were investigated. Synchronised fallowing was highly effective at eradicating epidemics when transmission rate is low (β=0.10) even when long distance contacts were fairly common (up to 1.5farm(-1)month(-1)). However for higher transmission rates, long distance contacts have to be kept at much lower levels (0.15contactsmonth(-1) where β=0.25) when synchronised fallowing was applied. If fallowing was partially synchronised or unsynchronised then low rates of long-distance contact are required (0.75 or 0.15farm(-1)month(-1)) even if β=0.10. These results demonstrate the potential benefits of having epidemiologically isolated management areas and applying synchronised fallowing.

Molecular epidemiology of salmonid alphavirus (SAV) subtype 3 in Norway

Background

Pancreas disease (PD) is a viral fish disease which in recent years has significantly affected Norwegian salmonid aquaculture. In Norway, the aetiological agent salmonid alphavirus (SAV) has been found to be represented by the subtype 3 only. SAV subtype 3 has in previous analyses been found to show a lower genetic divergence than the subtypes found to cause PD in Ireland and Scotland. The aim of this study was to evaluate the nucleotide (nt) and amino acid divergence and the phylogenetic relationship of 33 recent SAV subtype 3 sequences. The samples from which the sequences were obtained originated from both PD endemic and non-endemic regions in an attempt to investigate agent origin/spread. Multiple samples throughout the seawater production phase from several salmonid populations were included to investigate genetic variation during an outbreak. The analyses were mainly based on partial sequences from the E2 gene. For some samples, additional partial 6 K and nsP3 gene sequences were available.

Results

The nucleotide divergence for all gene fragments ranged from total identity (0.0% divergence) to 0.45% (1103 nt fragment of E2), 1.11% (451 nt fragment of E2), 0.94% (6 K) and 0.28% (nsP3). This low nucleotide divergence corresponded well to previous reports on SAV 3 sequences; however the observed divergence for the short E2 fragment was higher than that previously reported. When compared to SAVH20/03 (AY604235), amino acid substitutions were detected in all assessed gene fragments however the in vivo significance of these on for example disease outbreak mortality could not be concluded on. The phylogenetic tree based on the 451 nt E2 fragment showed that the sequences divided into two clusters with low genetic divergence, representing only a single SAV subtype.

Conclusions

The analysed sequences represented two clusters of a single SAV subtype; however some of the observed sequence divergence was higher than that previously reported by other researchers. Larger scale, full length sequence analyses should be instigated to allow further phylogenetic and molecular epidemiology investigations of SAV subtype 3.