Anthropogenic and environmental risk factors for rabies occurrence in Bhutan

Factors associated with the spatiotemporal distribution of dog rabies in Tunisia

Despite continuous efforts of veterinary services to control rabies in dogs since 1982, rabies remains a cause of death in Tunisia, with more than five reported human cases in 2022. As little is known on the determinants of transmission of rabies in dogs, better understand which factors contribute to its spatial heterogeneity in Tunisia is critical for developing bespoke mitigation activities. In this context, we developed Bayesian Poisson mixed-effect spatio-temporal model upon all cases of rabid dogs reported in each delegation during the period from 2019 to 2021. The best fitting model highlighted the association between the risk of rabies and the mean average monthly temperature, the density of markets and the density of dogs in delegations. Interestingly, no relationship was found between intensity of vaccination in dogs and the risk of rabies. Our results provided insights into the spatio-temporal dynamics of dog rabies transmission and highlighted specific geographic locations where the risk of infection was high despite correction for associated explanatory variables. Such an improved understanding represent key information to design bespoke, cost-efficient, rabies prevention and control strategies to support veterinary services activities and policymaking.

Patterns of Animal Rabies Prevalence in Northern South Africa between 1998 and 2022

Rabies is endemic in South Africa and rabies cycles are maintained in both domestic and wildlife species. The significant number of canine rabies cases reported by the World Organization for Animal Health Reference Laboratory for Rabies at Onderstepoort suggests the need for increased research and mass dog vaccinations on specific targeted foci in the country. This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of animal rabies cases from 1998 to 2017 in northern South Africa and environmental factors associated with highly enzootic municipalities. A descriptive analysis was used to investigate temporal patterns. The Getis-Ord Gi statistical tool was used to exhibit low and high clusters. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between the predictor variables and highly enzootic municipalities. A total of 9580 specimens were submitted for rabies diagnosis between 1998 and 2022. The highest positive case rates were from companion animals (1733 cases, 59.71%), followed by livestock (635 cases, 21.88%) and wildlife (621 cases, 21.39%). Rabies cases were reported throughout the year, with the majority occurring in the mid-dry season. Hot spots were frequently in the northern and eastern parts of Limpopo and Mpumalanga. Thicket bush and grassland were associated with rabies between 1998 and 2002. However, between 2008 and 2012, cultivated commercial crops and waterbodies were associated with rabies occurrence. In the last period, plantations and woodlands were associated with animal rabies. Of the total number of municipalities, five consistently and repeatedly had the highest rabies prevalence rates. These findings suggest that authorities should prioritize resources for those municipalities for rabies elimination and management.

Soares Magalhães R, Weese JS, Ahmed NO, Rupprecht CE, Clark NJ. Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria

Canine-mediated rabies kills tens of thousands of people annually in lesser-developed communities of Asia, Africa, and the Americas, primarily through bites from infected dogs. Multiple rabies outbreaks have been associated with human deaths in Nigeria. However, the lack of quality data on human rabies hinders advocacy and resource allocation for effective prevention and control. We obtained 20 years of dog bite surveillance data across 19 major hospitals in Abuja, incorporating modifiable and environmental covariates. To overcome the challenge of missing information, we used a Bayesian approach with expert-solicited prior information to jointly model missing covariate data and the additive effects of the covariates on the predicted probability of human death after rabies virus exposure. Only 1155 cases of dog bites were recorded throughout the study period, out of which 4.2% (N = 49) died of rabies. The odds for risk of human death were predicted to decrease among individuals who were bitten by owned dogs compared to those bitten by free-roaming dogs. Similarly, there was a predicted decrease in the probability of human death among victims bitten by vaccinated dogs compared to those bitten by unvaccinated dogs. The odds for the risk of human death after bitten individuals received rabies prophylaxis were predicted to decrease compared to no prophylaxis. We demonstrate the practical application of a regularised Bayesian approach to model sparse dog bite surveillance data to uncover risk factors for human rabies, with broader applications in other endemic rabies settings with similar profiles. The low reporting observed in this study underscores the need for community engagement and investment in surveillance to increase data availability. Better data on bite cases will help to estimate the burden of rabies in Nigeria and would be important to plan effective prevention and control of this disease.

Identifying high-risk areas for dog-mediated rabies using Bayesian spatial regression

Despite ongoing control efforts, rabies remains an endemic zoonotic disease in many countries. Determining high-risk areas and the space-time patterns of rabies spread, as it relates to epidemiologically important factors, can support policymakers and program managers alike to develop evidence-based targeted surveillance and control programs. In this One Health approach which selected Thailand as the example site, the location-based risk of contracting dog-mediated rabies by both human and animal populations was quantified using a Bayesian spatial regression model. Specifically, a conditional autoregressive (CAR) Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression was fitted to the reported human and animal rabies case counts of each district, from the 2012–2017 period. The human population was used as an offset. The epidemiologically important factors hypothesized as risk modifiers and therefore tested as predictors included: number of dog bites/attacks, the population of dogs and cats, number of Buddhist temples, garbage dumps, animal vaccination, post-exposure prophylaxis, poverty, and shared administrative borders. Disparate sources of data were used to improve the estimated associations and predictions. Model performance was assessed using cross-validation. Results suggested that accounting for the association between human and animal rabies with number of dog bites/attacks, number of owned and un-owned dogs; shared country borders, number of Buddhist temples, poverty levels, and accounting for spatial dependence between districts, may help to predict the risk districts for dog-mediated rabies in Thailand. The fitted values of the spatial regression were mapped to illustrate the risk of dog-mediated rabies. The cross-validation indicated an adequate performance of the spatial regression model (AUC = 0.81), suggesting that had this spatial regression approach been used to identify districts at risk in 2015, the cases reported in 2016/17 would have been predicted with model sensitivity and specificity of 0.71 and 0.80, respectively. While active surveillance is ideal, this approach of using multiple data sources to improve risk estimation may inform current rabies surveillance and control efforts including determining rabies-free zones, and the roll-out of human post-exposure prophylaxis and anti-rabies vaccines for animals in determining high-risk areas.

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Bayesian spatial regression was used to quantify location-based risk of dog-mediated rabies

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Available and publicly accessible data from disparate sources were gathered

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Risk was estimated using the association between

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Risk estimates were compared over time to determine the prediction ability

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Study suggests while active surveillance is ideal, using multiple data sources may improve risk estimation

Spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of rabies: A review of current methodologies

Rabies continues to be one of the deadliest, high risk diseases worldwide, posing a severe threat to public health. The lack of human-to-human transmission means that the spread of rabies is not significantly affected by the distribution of humans or migra- tion. Thus, the spatiotemporal dynamic of cases in both wild and domestic animals is an important issue that can result in human cases. This paper gives an overview of the methodologies for the spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of this disease. It introduces the most representative research progress of spatial aggregation, dynamic transmission, spatiotemporal distribution, epidemiologi- cal analysis and application of modelling in the study of rabies transmission in recent years. This overview should be useful for investigating the spatial and temporal dynamics of rabies, as it could help understanding the spread of cases as well as contribute to the development of better prevention and control strategies in ecology and epidemiology.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and determinants of canine rabies evidence at Local Government Area Level in Nigeria: Implications for rabies prevention and control

Canine rabies poses a significant risk to humans and animals in Nigeria. However, the lack of reliable tools to evaluate the performance of existing canine rabies control programs to inform public health policy decisions poses a severe obstacle. We obtained canine rabies surveillance data from the National Veterinary Research Institute (NVRI) and supplemented these data with rabies diagnoses reported in the published studies from Nigeria. To uncover contextual factors (i.e., environmental and sociodemographic) associated with canine rabies evidence at the Local Government Area (LGA) level, we classified LGAs in Nigeria into four categories based on evidence availability (i.e., LGAs with NVRI data or published studies, both, or no evidence). We described the geographical and temporal variation in coverage. We fitted a multinomial regression model to examine the association between LGA level canine rabies evidence and potential sociodemographic and ecological determinants of canine rabies evidence. The effective annual testing during the 19 years was less than one dog/100,000 Nigerian resident-year. Our results showed that 58% of Nigerian LGAs (450/774) had not been targeted by the existing national rabies surveillance or studies on rabies, including ten states capitals with high human populations. While 16% (122/774) of Nigerian LGAs concentrated in Taraba, Adamawa, and Abia had canine rabies evidence from published studies, none of these LGAs was represented in the NVRI rabies surveillance data. We also observed an increasing trend in rabies evidence over time towards the eastern part of Nigeria. Our multinomial regression model indicated that education level, poverty, population density, land use and temperature were significantly associated with canine rabies evidence at the LGA level. This study underscores the value of combining canine rabies evidence from different sources to better understand the current disease situation for targeted intervention.

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This study shows the value of combining different evidence sources to advocate for public health interventions.

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Educational level, poverty, population density, land use and temperature were determinants of evidence of canine rabies.

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Such evidence demonstrates the need to expand Nigeria's rabies laboratory-based surveillance to support rabies prevention.

A Qualitative Risk Assessment of Rabies Reintroduction Into the Rabies Low-Risk Zone of Bhutan

In Bhutan, dog-mediated rabies has been successfully eliminated from most regions of the country but remains endemic in the Southern region and sporadic incursions are also reported in the East. Elimination of rabies from the southern part of Bhutan is challenged by the porous border with the neighboring states of India which facilitates free and unregulated movement of animals. Around 17 outbreaks of rabies are reported annually in dogs and other domestic animals, posing continuous public health risks and economic losses. Furthermore, due to anthropogenic factors, such as increasing human settlements along highways, increased animal transportation, and the complex and changing human-pet relationship, there is potential to reintroduce rabies from rabies high-risk zone to rabies low-risk zone. This study was undertaken to estimate the risk of rabies re-introduction to the rabies low-risk zone by performing a qualitative risk assessment. The assessment was conducted for three risk pathways (stray dog-pathway, pet dog-pathway and cattle-pathway) under two scenarios: (1) no risk mitigation measures in place and (2) current risk mitigation measures in place. The current control measures include Government led programs, such as mass dog vaccination and dog population management, regulation of the movment of animals through pre-travel check-up and health certification, regular awareness education and rabies surveillance in the rabies endemic areas. The probability of an event occurring was assigned using the data from the available literature. Where gaps in knowledge existed, expert opinion, elicited through modified Delphi method, was used. Under the scenario in which no risk mitigation measures were in place, the risk of rabies re-introduction was estimated to be medium for the stray-dog pathway with a low level of uncertainty, low for pet-dog pathway with a low level of uncertainty, and very low for the cattle-pathway with a medium level of uncertainty. When current risk-mitigation measures were included, the risk of rabies reintroduction was estimated to be very low for the stray-dog pathway with a medium level of uncertainty, low for the pet dog-pathway with a low level of uncertainty, and extremely low for the cattle-pathway with a medium level of uncertainty. The risk of rabies re-introduction through all the pathways was greater than negligible. These findings highlight the importance of maintaining and enhancing current risk mitigation measures to prevent re-introduction of rabies into rabies low-risk zone.

Comparison of antibody titres between intradermal and intramuscular rabies vaccination using inactivated vaccine in cattle in Bhutan

In developing countries, the cost of vaccination limits the use of prophylactic rabies vaccination, especially in cattle. Intradermal vaccination delivers antigen directly to an area with higher number of antigen-presenting cells. Therefore, it could produce equivalent or higher antibody titres than conventional intramuscular vaccination even when a lower dose is given. This study aimed to compare the antibody response in cattle vaccinated intramuscularly with 1mL of inactivated rabies vaccine (Raksharab, Indian Immunologicals) against intradermally vaccinated cattle with 0.2mL of the same vaccine. The study was conducted in Haa province of Bhutan where rabies is not endemic. One hundred cattle from 27 farms were selected for the study. Virus neutralising antibody (VNA) response was measured using the fluorescent antibody virus neutralisation test on the day of vaccination (day 0) and 14, 30, 60 and 90 days later. Overall, 71% of intradermally vaccinated cattle and 89% of the intramuscularly vaccinated cattle produced an adequate response (≥0.5IU/mL). On days 14 and 30 post vaccination fewer cattle (P<0.02) in the intradermal group had adequate titres with 36% and 58%, respectively, having titres ≥0.5 IU/mL compared to the equivalent figures of 78% and 77% in the intramuscular group. The mean VNA titres were lower for the intradermal group than intramuscular group (p<0.001) with the mean difference being > 0.6 IU/mL. Although low dose intradermal vaccination did produce a detectable antibody response, it was inferior to intramuscular vaccination. Thus, although intradermal vaccination has the potential to reduce the cost of vaccination by reducing the dose required, this study showed that a single dose of 0.2 mL intradermally was inferior to an intramuscular dose of 1 mL. Further research evaluating dose and dose regimen is needed before intradermal vaccination using the Raksharab rabies vaccine can be recommended in cattle.

Determinants of health seeking behavior of animal bite victims in rabies endemic South Bhutan: a community-based contact-tracing survey

BACKGROUND

Dog bites are the main source of rabies infection and death in humans, contributing up to 99% of all cases. We conducted a contact-tracing study to evaluate the health seeking and treatment compliance behaviors of people following potential exposure to rabies in rabies endemic south Bhutan.

METHODS

Using information from the rabies post exposure prophylaxis (PEP) register, animal-exposed victims who had visited five hospitals in south Bhutan between January and March 2017 were traced and further data were collected from them using a structured questionnaire. A snowballing technique was used to identify victims who did not seek PEP.The survey was conducted between April and June 2017. Logistic regression was performed to assess factors associated with PEP-seeking and compliance behavior by the victims.

RESULTS

Amongst 630 who reported to hospitals, 70% (444) of people could be traced and additional 8% (39) who did not seek PEP was identified through contact tracing. Therefore, a total of 483 people were interviewed. Seventy one percent (344/483) of exposure were due to animal bites of which 80% (365/455) were considered to be provoked incidents. Common reasons for not seeking health care included assumptions that risks of infection were minor if bitten by an owned or vaccinated dog. The victims who are male (OR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.16-0.77) and educated (OR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.17-0.96) were less likely to seek PEP, while those that experienced unprovoked bite (OR: 5.10; 95% CI: 1.20-21.77) were more likely to seek PEP in the hospitals. Overall, 82% of the victims sought PEP from the hospitals within 24 h after exposure. Eighty three percent completed the PEP course prescribed by the physician. The respondents living in urban areas (OR: 2.67; 95% CI: 1.34-5.30) were more likely to complete the prescribed PEP course than rural dwellers.

CONCLUSIONS

There is high risk of rabies infection in southern Bhutan. It is critical to bridge knowledge gaps and dispel existing myths which will help to improve PEP seeking and compliance behavior of people exposed to rabies infection from animals. A risk-based advocacy program is necessary to prevent dog-mediated human rabies deaths.

Spatiotemporal analysis of canine rabies in El Salvador: Violence and poverty as social factors of canine rabies

BACKGROUND

The incidence of canine rabies cases in El Salvador has decreased in the last decade since the establishment of intense control programs, such as massive vaccination campaigns implemented by the Ministry of Health. Socioeconomic crises in recent years have limited the access to certain areas across the country and have impacted surveillance and prevention campaigns, which places the country at risk for a resurgence of canine rabies.We aimedto describe the spatiotemporal patterns of canine rabies and its association with critical social factors in El Salvador from 2005 to 2014.

METHOD

We included 459 cases of canine rabies. Several socioeconomic, demographic, and surveillance variables were modeled using a Poisson regression to evaluate their associations with the incidence of canine rabies. Spatial scan statistics were adjusted or unadjusted with covariates and applied to identify statistically significant clusters of canine rabies. Finally, a canine rabies risk map was created.

RESULTS

A positive association and higher risk of canine rabies were found for low poverty zones, where it is suspected that urban slums contribute to ongoing rabies transmission (RR = 7.74). Violence had a negative association with rabies (RR = 0.663), which is likely due to reporting bias. Significant clusters were identified in all five epidemiological regions, and the Eastern region had the highest risk (RR = 50.62). The influences of the selected variables in cluster detection were confirmed by the adjusted analysis. Higher-risk townships were distributed from the Western to the Eastern regions of the country.

CONCLUSION

Social factors are determinants of rabies in El Salvador and play a major role in national spatial patterns of the disease. There are high-risk areas for canine rabies across the country, and there were two persistent rabies foci during the study period. Examining the role of social factors can provide better insight into rabies in vulnerable countries, and socioeconomic factors can be key elements in developing better policies and interventions for rabies control.

A cross-sectional survey of population demographics, the prevalence of major disease conditions and reason-specific proportional mortality of domestic cattle in the Kingdom of Bhutan

We describe the population demographics, rudimentary measures of reproductive performance, the prevalence of major disease conditions and reason-specific proportional mortality for cattle owned by villagers in 16 dzongkhags (districts) in Bhutan based on the findings of a cross-sectional study carried out between March 2012 and May 2014. The animal health issues that were of concern for livestock owners are also identified. Study households were selected using a stratified, two-stage cluster design. Districts (dzongkhags) formed the strata. Villages within dzongkhags were the first sampling stage and households within villages the second sampling stage. All cattle within each selected household comprised the study population. Questionnaires were collected from 409 households with 1480 standing cattle. A total of 71.0% (95% CI 67.9%-74.1%) of the standing cattle population were female and the median age of cattle was 5 years (Q25 3 years; Q75 7 years). Exotic breeds of cattle (Jerseys, Brown Swiss, and their crosses) comprised 41.4% of the cattle population with local breeds making up the remainder. Although exotic breeds of cattle had a significantly lower age at first calving (median 4 years) compared to local breeds (median 4.8 years) there was no significant difference in the number of calving events per cow for the two breed groups. Diarrhoea was the most prevalent disease condition with 2.8 (95% CI 1.5-4.6) cases per 100 animals followed by bovine enzootic haematuria with 1.9 (95% CI 1.0-3.3) cases per 100 animals. The most frequently cited cause of death was misadventure (proportional mortality 26.2%, 95% CI 15.7%-39.2%) followed by old age (17.8%, 95% CI 9.5%-29.4%). A lack of access to adequate fodder and pasture was the animal health issue that was cited by interviewees most frequently. We provide no evidence that exotic breeds of cattle have superior reproductive performance compared with local breeds. The major cattle health concern cited by interviewees, lack of access to fodder, is likely to contribute to suboptimal productivity and the relatively high incidence of bovine enzootic haematuria in this population. We propose that a prospective cohort study of Bhutanese cattle is warranted to more fully elucidate factors affecting the productivity and longevity of cattle in Bhutan.

Comparison of mark-resight methods to estimate abundance and rabies vaccination coverage of free-roaming dogs in two urban areas of south Bhutan

In Bhutan, Capture-Neuter-Vaccinate-Release (CNVR) programs have been implemented to manage the dog population and control rabies, but no detailed evaluation has been done to assess their coverage and impact. We compared estimates of the dog population using three analytical methods: Lincoln-Petersen index, the Chapman estimate, and the logit-normal mixed effects model, and a varying number of count periods at different times of the day to recommend a protocol for applying the mark-resight framework to estimate free-roaming dog population abundance. We assessed the coverage of the CNVR program by estimating the proportion of dogs that were ear-notched and visually scored the health and skin condition of free-roaming dogs in Gelephu and Phuentsholing towns in south Bhutan, bordering India, in September-October 2012. The estimated free-roaming dog population in Gelephu using the Lincoln-Petersen index and Chapman estimates ranged from 612 to 672 and 614 to 671, respectively, while the logit-normal mixed effects model estimate based on the combined two count events was 641 (95% CI: 603-682). In Phuentsholing the Lincoln-Petersen index and Chapman estimates ranged from 525 to 583 and 524 to 582, respectively, while the logit-normal mixed effects model estimate based on the combined four count events was 555 (95% CI: 526-587). The total number of dogs counted was significantly associated with the time of day (AM versus PM; P=0.007), with a 17% improvement in dog sightings during the morning counting events. We recommend to conduct a morning marking followed by one count event the next morning and estimate population size by applying the Lincoln-Peterson corrected Chapman method or conduct two morning count events and apply the logit-normal mixed model to estimate population size. The estimated proportion of vaccinated free-roaming dogs was 56% (95% CI: 52-61%) and 58% (95% CI: 53-62%) in Gelephu and Phuentsholing, respectively. Given coverage in many neighbourhoods was below the recommended threshold of 70%, we recommend conducting an annual "mass dog vaccination only" campaign in southern Bhutan to create an immune buffer in this high rabies-risk area. The male-to-female dog ratio was 1.34:1 in Gelephu and 1.27:1 in Pheuntsholing. Population size estimates using mark-resight surveys has provided useful baseline data for understanding the population dynamics of dogs at the study sites. Mark-resight surveys provide useful information for designing and managing the logistics of dog vaccination or CNVR programs, assessing vaccination coverage, and for evaluating the impact of neutering programs on the size and structure of dog populations over time.

Different ontologies: land change science and health research

Land use and land cover (LULC) is now recognized as an important driver of disease. For emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases, LULC offers context and serves as a likely proximate driver of risk particularly when considering vector-borne or zoonotic diseases. Ontological differences embedded within disciplinary structures impede progress limiting the ultimate potential of both LULC data and land change theory within disease research. Geography, space, and time serve as effective complements to traditional health and place organizational and disease-research strategies. Improved systemic clarity is obtained if one orients the disease relationship to particular contexts and if the scales of the relationships are clearly defined.

Rabies in Iraq: trends in human cases 2001-2010 and characterisation of animal rabies strains from Baghdad

Control of rabies requires a consistent supply of dependable resources, constructive cooperation between veterinary and public health authorities, and systematic surveillance. These are challenging in any circumstances, but particularly during conflict. Here we describe available human rabies surveillance data from Iraq, results of renewed sampling for rabies in animals, and the first genetic characterisation of circulating rabies strains from Iraq. Human rabies is notifiable, with reported cases increasing since 2003, and a marked increase in Baghdad between 2009 and 2010. These changes coincide with increasing numbers of reported dog bites. There is no laboratory confirmation of disease or virus characterisation and no systematic surveillance for rabies in animals. To address these issues, brain samples were collected from domestic animals in the greater Baghdad region and tested for rabies. Three of 40 brain samples were positive using the fluorescent antibody test and hemi-nested RT-PCR for rabies virus (RABV). Bayesian phylogenetic analysis using partial nucleoprotein gene sequences derived from the samples demonstrated the viruses belong to a single virus variant and share a common ancestor with viruses from neighbouring countries, 22 (95% HPD 14-32) years ago. These include countries lying to the west, north and east of Iraq, some of which also have other virus variants circulating concurrently. These results suggest possible multiple introductions of rabies into the Middle East, and regular trans-boundary movement of disease. Although 4000 years have passed since the original description of disease consistent with rabies, animals and humans are still dying of this preventable and neglected zoonosis.