The human and animal health impacts of introduction and spread of an exotic strain of West Nile virus in Australia

Approaches for disease prioritization and decision-making in animal health, 2000-2021: a structured scoping review

This scoping review identifies and describes the methods used to prioritize diseases for resource allocation across disease control, surveillance, and research and the methods used generally in decision-making on animal health policy. Three electronic databases (Medline/PubMed, Embase, and CAB Abstracts) were searched for articles from 2000 to 2021. Searches identified 6, 395 articles after de-duplication, with an additional 64 articles added manually. A total of 6, 460 articles were imported to online document review management software (sysrev.com) for screening. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 532 articles passed the first screening, and after a second round of screening, 336 articles were recommended for full review. A total of 40 articles were removed after data extraction. Another 11 articles were added, having been obtained from cross-citations of already identified articles, providing a total of 307 articles to be considered in the scoping review. The results show that the main methods used for disease prioritization were based on economic analysis, multi-criteria evaluation, risk assessment, simple ranking, spatial risk mapping, and simulation modeling. Disease prioritization was performed to aid in decision-making related to various categories: (1) disease control, prevention, or eradication strategies, (2) general organizational strategy, (3) identification of high-risk areas or populations, (4) assessment of risk of disease introduction or occurrence, (5) disease surveillance, and (6) research priority setting. Of the articles included in data extraction, 50.5% had a national focus, 12.3% were local, 11.9% were regional, 6.5% were sub-national, and 3.9% were global. In 15.2% of the articles, the geographic focus was not specified. The scoping review revealed the lack of comprehensive, integrated, and mutually compatible approaches to disease prioritization and decision support tools for animal health. We recommend that future studies should focus on creating comprehensive and harmonized frameworks describing methods for disease prioritization and decision-making tools in animal health.

Rabies in Our Neighbourhood: Preparedness for an Emerging Infectious Disease

Emerging infectious disease (EID) events have the potential to cause devastating impacts on human, animal and environmental health. A range of tools exist which can be applied to address EID event detection, preparedness and response. Here we use a case study of rabies in Southeast Asia and Oceania to illustrate, via nearly a decade of research activities, how such tools can be systematically integrated into a framework for EID preparedness. During the past three decades, canine rabies has spread to previously free areas of Southeast Asia, threatening the rabies-free status of countries such as Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and Australia. The program of research to address rabies preparedness in the Oceanic region has included scanning and surveillance to define the emerging nature of canine rabies within the Southeast Asia region; field studies to collect information on potential reservoir species, their distribution and behaviour; participatory and sociological studies to identify priorities for disease response; and targeted risk assessment and disease modelling studies. Lessons learnt include the need to develop methods to collect data in remote regions, and the need to continuously evaluate and update requirements for preparedness in response to evolving drivers of emerging infectious disease.

A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the risk of introduction of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in the United States via infected mosquitoes transported in aircraft and cargo ships

Following a qualitative risk assessment, in which we identified and assessed all viable pathways for the introduction of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) into the United States (US), we identified entry through infected vectors via aircraft and cargo ships as the most likely pathway, and thus considered it further in a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of introduction of JEV in the US via infected mosquitoes transported in aircraft and cargo ships arriving from Asia, using a QRA model. We created a stochastic model to quantify the probability of introduction of at least one infected mosquito in the continental US via aircraft and cargo ships, per at-risk period (March to October) or year, respectively. We modeled the following parameters: number of flights (per at-risk period, i.e., March to October) and cargo ships (per year) and per region, number of mosquitoes per flight and ship, number of mosquitoes that were not found and sensitivity of the mosquito collection method in aircraft, mosquito infection rates, and number of mosquitoes coming in aircraft per at-risk period (March to October) and cargo ships per year. Flight and cargo ship data pertained to years 2010-2016. For model building purposes, we only considered port-to-port vessels arriving from Asia to the US, we assumed that mosquitoes survive the trans-Pacific Ocean ship crossing and that the number of mosquitoes in cargo and passenger flights is similar. Our model predicted a very high risk (0.95 median probability; 95% CI = 0.80-0.99) of at least one infected mosquito being introduced in the US during the at-risk period, i.e., March to October, via aircraft transportation from JEV-affected countries in Asia. We also estimated that a median of three infected mosquitoes can enter the US during the at-risk period, i.e., March to October (95% CI = 1-7). The highest probability of introduction via aircraft was attributed to the Mediterranean California ecoregion (0.74; 95% CI = 0.50-0.90). We predicted, however, a negligible risk (0; 95% CI = 0.00-0.01) of at least one infected mosquito being introduced via cargo ships. Although the risk of introduction of JEV-infected mosquitoes by cargo ships was negligible, the risk via aircraft was estimated to be high. Our findings indicate the need to prioritize JEV prevention and control methods for aircraft-based pathways, such as aircraft disinfection. The quantitative estimates provided in this study are of interest to public health entities and other stakeholders, as they may support future interventions for preventing JEV introduction, as well as other vector-borne diseases, in the US and other countries.

The risks to Australia from emerging and exotic arboviruses

The recent pandemic spread of mosquito-borne arboviruses across multiple continents, as exemplified by West Nile (WNV)1,, chikungunya (CHIKV)2, and Zika (ZIKV)3, viruses, together with the continuing disease burden of epidemic dengue viruses (DENVs)1, multiple importations of yellow fever virus (YFV) into populous areas of Asia4, and the potential threat of some other, possibly unknown, emerging arboviral threat, constitute a wake-up call for governments to strengthen surveillance programmes and enhance research into mosquito-transmitted diseases5–7. Rift Valley fever8 (RVFV) and Japanese encephalitis1,9 (JEV) viruses are also important examples of threats to human and/or livestock health. Australia is vulnerable to these arboviral diseases, with risk of importation and outbreak potential varying between viruses10. The risk of exotic arboviral diseases establishing transmission cycles in Australia is dependent on the availability of competent vectors and suitable vertebrate hosts. Therefore, knowledge of the vector competence of Australian mosquito species for exotic arboviruses, potential for the introduction and establishment of exotic vector species, and suitability of vertebrate hosts, are essential components of understanding and mitigating these arboviral threats.

Arbovirosis and potential transmission blocking vaccines

Infectious diseases caused by arboviruses (viruses transmitted by arthropods) are undergoing unprecedented epidemic activity and geographic expansion. With the recent introduction of West Nile virus (1999), chikungunya virus (2013) and Zika virus (2015) to the Americas, stopping or even preventing the expansion of viruses into susceptible populations is an increasing concern. With a few exceptions, available vaccines protecting against arboviral infections are nonexistent and current disease prevention relies on vector control interventions. However, due to the emergence of and rapidly spreading insecticide resistance, different disease control methods are needed. A feasible method of reducing emerging tropical diseases is the implementation of vaccines that prevent or decrease viral infection in the vector. These vaccines are designated ‘transmission blocking vaccines’, or TBVs. Here, we summarize previous TBV work, discuss current research on arboviral TBVs and present several promising TBV candidates.

Evaluating the risk of pathogen transmission from wild animals to domestic pigs in Australia

Wild animals contribute to endemic infection in livestock as well as the introduction, reintroduction and maintenance of pathogens. The source of introduction of endemic diseases to a piggery is often unknown and the extent of wildlife contribution to such local spread is largely unexplored. The aim of the current study was to quantitatively assess the probability of domestic pigs being exposed to different pathogens from wild animals commonly found around commercial piggeries in Australia. Specifically, this study aims to quantify the probability of exposure to the pathogens Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp. from European starlings (Sturnus vulgarus); Brachyspira hyodysenteriae, Lawsonia intracellularis and Salmonella spp. from rats (Rattus rattus and Rattus norvegicus); and Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae, Leptospira spp., Brucella suis and L. intracellularis from feral pigs (Sus scrofa). Exposure assessments, using scenario trees and Monte Carlo stochastic simulation modelling, were conducted to identify potential pathways of introduction and calculate the probabilities of these pathways occurring. Input parameters were estimated from a national postal survey of commercial pork producers and from disease detection studies conducted for European starlings, rats and feral pigs in close proximity to commercial piggeries in Australia. Based on the results of the exposure assessments, rats presented the highest probability of exposure of pathogens to domestic pigs at any point in time, and L. intracellularis (median 0.13, 5% and 95%, 0.05-0.23) and B. hyodysenteriae (median 0.10, 0.05-0.19) were the most likely pathogens to be transmitted. Regarding European starlings, the median probability of exposure of domestic pigs to pathogenic E. coli at any point in time was estimated to be 0.03 (0.02-0.04). The highest probability of domestic pig exposure to feral pig pathogens at any point in time was found to be for M. hyopneumoniae (median 0.013, 0.007-0.022) and L. intracellularis (median 0.006, 0.003-0.011) for pigs in free-range piggeries. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the presence and number of wild animals around piggeries, their access to piggeries and pig food and water, and, in the case of feral pigs, their proximity to piggeries, are the most influential parameters on the probability of exposure. Findings from this study support identification of mitigation strategies that could be implemented at on-farm and industry level to minimize the exposure risk from European starlings, rats and feral pigs.

Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: pathways from anticipation to action

Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease (EID) events can have devastating human, animal and environmental health impacts. The emergence of EIDs has been associated with interconnected economic, social and environmental changes. Understanding these changes is crucial for EID preparedness and subsequent prevention and control of EID events. The aim of this review is to describe tools currently available for identification, prioritization and investigation of EIDs impacting human and animal health, and how these might be integrated into a systematic approach for directing EID preparedness. Environmental scanning, foresight programmes, horizon scanning and surveillance are used to collect and assess information for rapidly responding to EIDs and to anticipate drivers of emergence for mitigating future EID impacts. Prioritization of EIDs - using transparent and repeatable methods - based on disease impacts and the importance of those impacts to decision-makers can then be used for more efficient resource allocation for prevention and control. Risk assessment and simulation modelling methods assess the likelihood of EIDs occurring, define impact and identify mitigation strategies. Each of these tools has a role to play individually; however, we propose integration of these tools into a framework that enhances the development of tactical and strategic plans for emerging risk preparedness.

Profile of international air passengers intercepted with illegal animal products in baggage at Guarulhos and Galeão airports in Brazil

Protection against biological material entering a country or region through airports is important because, through them, infectious agents can quickly reach exotic destinations and be disseminated. Illegal products of animal origin may contain hazardous infectious agents that can compromise animal and public health. The aim of this study was to identify associations between possession of illegal animal products in baggage and demographic characteristics of the passengers, as well as characteristics of their travel plans in the two main Brazilian international airports. A total of 457 passengers were divided into two groups: passengers identified as carrying illegal animal products and control. Passengers identified as carrying illegal animal products not stated on the accompanied baggage declaration completed a questionnaire, to aid in profiling. Nationality, origin, age and residency of passengers were analyzed using chi square, logistic regression and odds ratios. Passengers from Eastern Europe were the most likely to enter with animal products as were those aged between 35 and 55 years. When evaluating the departure point, the highest frequency was seen in those coming from Portugal. Passenger group, reasons for travel, amount and type of baggage were available only for passengers identified as carrying illegal animal products, noting that they prefer traveling alone, for leisure, bringing few bags. Such information can contribute to the early identification of passengers that have illegal animal products in baggage at Brazilian airports.

Exploring the spatio-temporal dynamics of reservoir hosts, vectors, and human hosts of West Nile virus: a review of the recent literature

Over the last two decades West Nile Virus (WNV) has been responsible for significant disease outbreaks in humans and animals in many parts of the World. Its extremely rapid global diffusion argues for a better understanding of its geographic extent. The purpose of this inquiry was to explore spatio-temporal patterns of WNV using geospatial technologies to study populations of the reservoir hosts, vectors, and human hosts, in addition to the spatio-temporal interactions among these populations. Review of the recent literature on spatial WNV disease risk modeling led to the conclusion that numerous environmental factors might be critical for its dissemination. New Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based studies are monitoring occurrence at the macro-level, and helping pinpoint areas of occurrence at the micro-level, where geographically-targeted, species-specific control measures are sometimes taken and more sophisticated methods of surveillance have been used.

The role of Australian mosquito species in the transmission of endemic and exotic West Nile virus strains

Recent epidemic activity and its introduction into the Western Hemisphere have drawn attention to West Nile virus (WNV) as an international public health problem. Of particular concern has been the ability for the virus to cause outbreaks of disease in highly populated urban centers. Incrimination of Australian mosquito species is an essential component in determining the receptivity of Australia to the introduction and/or establishment of an exotic strain of WNV and can guide potential management strategies. Based on vector competence experiments and ecological studies, we suggest candidate Australian mosquito species that would most likely be involved in urban transmission of WNV, along with consideration of the endemic WNV subtype, Kunjin. We then examine the interaction of entomological factors with virological and vertebrate host factors, as well as likely mode of introduction, which may influence the potential for exotic WNV to become established and be maintained in urban transmission cycles in Australia.