Climate change, food systems and population health risks in their eco-social context

Environmental Impact of Two Plant-Based, Isocaloric and Isoproteic Diets: The Vegan Diet vs. the Mediterranean Diet

Food consumption is one of the major causes of climate change, resource depletion, loss of biodiversity, and other kinds of environmental impact by modern households. According to evidence, a global change in dietary habits could be the single most effective and rapid intervention to reduce anthropic pressure on the planet, especially with respect to climate change. Our study applied Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to investigate the total environmental impact of two plant-based diets: the Mediterranean and the Vegan diets, according to relevant Italian nutritional recommendations. The two diets share the same macronutrient rates and cover all the nutritional recommendations. Calculations were made on the basis of a theoretical one-week 2000 kcal/day diet. According to our calculations, the Vegan diet showed about 44% less total environmental impact when compared to the Mediterranean diet, despite the fact that the content of animal products of the latter was low (with 10.6% of the total diet calories). This result clearly supports the concept that meat and dairy consumption plays a critical role, above all, in terms of damage to human health and ecosystems. Our study supports the thesis that even a minimal-to-moderate content of animal foods has a consistent impact on the environmental footprint of a diet, and their reduction can elicit significant ecological benefits.

Emergence of zoonoses such as COVID-19 reveals the need for health sciences to embrace an explicit eco-social conceptual framework of health and disease

An accurate understanding of why zoonoses such as SARS-CoV-2 are emerging at an increased rate, is vital to prevent future pandemics from the approximately 700,000 viruses with zoonotic potential. Certain authors have argued that the consumption of wildlife, or human contact with bats was responsible for the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Others argue that a range of anthropogenic environmental degradations have played a vital role in the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and other zoonoses. In this opinion piece, I argue that these divergent viewpoints stem, in part, from different foundational conceptual frameworks - biomedical individualist and eco-social frameworks, respectively. Based on the fact that the eco-social framework provides a more complete account of the different types of causal factors underpinning the emergence of zoonoses, I propose that the COVID-19 pandemic provides an additional reason for the health sciences to ground its theory of health and disease in an eco-social conceptual framework.

A Critical Analysis of the Drivers of Human Migration Patterns in the Presence of Climate Change: A New Conceptual Model

Both climate change and migration present key concerns for global health progress. Despite this, a transparent method for identifying and understanding the relationship between climate change, migration and other contextual factors remains a knowledge gap. Existing conceptual models are useful in understanding the complexities of climate migration, but provide varying degrees of applicability to quantitative studies, resulting in non-homogenous transferability of knowledge in this important area. This paper attempts to provide a critical review of climate migration literature, as well as presenting a new conceptual model for the identification of the drivers of migration in the context of climate change. It focuses on the interactions and the dynamics of drivers over time, space and society. Through systematic, pan-disciplinary and homogenous application of theory to different geographical contexts, we aim to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on migration. A brief case study of Malawi is provided to demonstrate how this global conceptual model can be applied into local contextual scenarios. In doing so, we hope to provide insights that help in the more homogenous applications of conceptual frameworks for this area and more generally.

Global drivers of food system (un)sustainability: A multi-country correlation analysis

At present, our ability to comprehend the dynamics of food systems and the consequences of their rapid 'transformations' is limited. In this paper, we propose to address this gap by exploring the interactions between the sustainability of food systems and a set of key drivers at the global scale. For this we compile a metric of 12 key drivers of food system from a globally-representative set of low, middle, and high-income countries and analyze the relationships between these drivers and a composite index that integrates the four key dimensions of food system sustainability, namely: food security & nutrition, environment, social, and economic dimensions. The two metrics highlight the important data gap that characterizes national systems' statistics-in particular in relation to transformation, transport, retail and distribution. Spearman correlations and Principal Component Analysis are then used to explore associations between levels of sustainability and drivers. With the exception of one economic driver (trade flows in merchandise and services), the majority of the statistically significant correlations found between food system sustainability and drivers appear to be negative. The fact that most of these negative drivers are closely related to the global demographic transition that is currently affecting the world population highlights the magnitude of the challenges ahead. This analysis is the first one that provides quantitative evidence at the global scale about correlations between the four dimensions of sustainability of our food systems and specific drivers.

Local weather, flooding history and childhood diarrhoea caused by the parasite Cryptosporidium spp.: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Scientists have long predicted the impacts of climate-related infectious disease emergence. Yet, the combined effect of local socioeconomic and demographic factors and weather variation on child health is poorly understood. With a focus on childhood diarrhoea caused by the parasite Cryptosporidium spp., - an infection easily controlled by public health interventions but also strongly linked to environmental conditions through waterborne spread, we systematically review and empirically model the effects of local weather and flooding history, after controlling for seasonality, publication bias, access to improved sanitation, health resources and population density at a global scale. We examined 1588 papers on childhood cryptosporidiosis and identified 36 studies representing a range of geographic locations and climatic, environmental and socio-economic conditions. Local rainfall and population density were related with cryptosporidiosis across latitudes as shown by mixed effects, spatio-temporal models for equatorial, sub-tropical and temperate climates. In equatorial (0-20°) latitudes, the previous month's rainfall and population density were inversely related with childhood cryptosporidiosis with a significant random effect for flooding history. In tropical-subtropical (20-35°) latitudes, rainfall in December was inversely related with cryptosporidiosis, compared to rainfall in April (the wet season). In temperate latitudes (>35°), there was a significant negative association of reported disease with population density. This global empirical analysis indicates differential spatio-temporal patterns of childhood cryptosporidiosis in low, mid and high latitude regions. Models that couple weather conditions with demographic factors are needed to assess disease distributional shifts and risks due to environmental change. These results may provide impetus to develop environment-focused public health policies to manage disease risks associated with climate change for future generations.

Drought and Distress in Southeastern Australia

Droughts may increase the risk of mental health problems, but evidence suggests a complex story with some groups being vulnerable while others are not. Previous studies from Australia have found associations with suicide, depression and distress that vary by age, gender and remoteness. Understanding the effects of drought on mental health is important because drought is predicted to be more intense in some areas in the future. We investigated the associations between drought and distress in a survey of rural Australians by age, gender and farming status. We collected distress data using a survey of 5312 people from across the state of Victoria, Australia, in 2015. Respondents completed the Kessler 10 (K10) Psychological Distress Index, and demographic and general health data were collected. We linked a climatic drought index to the locality of residence of respondents. Associations between distress and drought were analyzed using multivariable regression models with interactions by age, gender and farming occupation. Parts of Victoria were in drought in 2015. Drought duration was associated with higher distress in younger rural women (aged 40-54: odds ratio 1.18 per inter-quartile range increase in drought duration) but not older rural women or men. This pattern did not vary between farmers and non-farmers. Drought was associated with increased distress, but this differed between subgroups. Our results suggest that supporting younger women may be particularly important, and understanding ways older Australian rural women cope may enable us to build adaptive capacity and resilience.