A simulation impact evaluation of a cigarette excise tax increase on licit and illicit cigarette consumption and tax revenue in 36 European countries

Beyond the smoke: Historical analysis of the revenue implications of state cigarette tax policies, 1989 to 2019

INTRODUCTION

While cigarette taxes are a vital tobacco control tool, their impact on cigarette tax revenue has been largely understudied in the extant literature. This study examines how the level of cigarette taxes affects the revenue generated from cigarettes in the United States over a thirty-year period.

METHODS

We obtained the Tax Burden Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1989-2019). Our dependent variables were gross cigarette tax revenue and per capita gross cigarette tax revenue, and our independent variable was state tax per pack. We used two-way fixed effects to estimate the relationship between state cigarette tax revenue and cigarette taxes, adjusting for state-level sociodemographic characteristics, state-fixed effects, and time trends.

RESULTS

The study reveals that raising cigarette state tax by 10 % led to a 7.2 % to 7.5 % increase in cigarette tax revenue. We also found state and regional variation in taxes and revenue, with the Northeast region having the highest taxes per pack and tax revenues. In 2019, most states had low or moderate taxes per pack and tax revenues per capita, while a few states had high taxes per pack and tax revenues per capita.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research demonstrates the positive impact of increased cigarette taxes on state tax revenue over three decades. Not only do higher taxes aid in tobacco control, but they also enhance state revenues that can be reinvested in state initiatives. Some states could potentially optimize their tax rates.

Better cigarette tax policies and higher tobacco excise tax revenues

BACKGROUND

In November 2021, the Tobacconomics team published the second edition of the Cigarette Tax Scorecard which evaluates cigarette taxation in each country based on four components-cigarette price, affordability change, tax share and tax structure. This study examines the relationship between the overall cigarette tax score and tobacco excise tax revenue between 2014 and 2018.

METHODS

Using cigarette tax scores from the Tobacconomics Cigarette Tax Scorecard and tobacco excise tax revenue information from WHO, this analysis is based on ordinary least squares estimations to assess the association between the overall cigarette tax scores and tobacco excise tax revenues per capita controlling for countries' tobacco control environment, sociodemographic characteristics and country and year fixed effects.

RESULTS

A 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.98 (in constant 2018 purchasing power parity international dollars). For low and middle-income countries and lower performing countries at baseline, a 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.32 and $6.92, respectively. If all countries had increased their scores to '5', the tobacco excise tax revenue per capita would have increased by 22.51%.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher overall cigarette tax scores are associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita. Countries aiming to reach higher cigarette tax scores would be able to reduce tobacco use and increase their tobacco tax revenue, which can be allocated to development priorities.

Tobacco Taxation Influences the Smoking Habits of Adult Smokers Attending Smoking Cessation Clinic in Saudi Arabia

Objectives

To determine whether the increased tobacco price due to tax implementation on tobacco products (including cigarettes) has a significant effect on smoking cessation among Saudi Arabian adult smokers.

Methods

An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to obtain data from adult Saudi smokers and recent quitters attending smoking cessation clinics between January 2018 and September 2019. The responses of the participants were summarized and analyzed.

Results

In total, 660 participants were interviewed, of which 98% were men who resided in the western region (33%). Taxation had no effect on smoking in 387 participants [58.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 54.9, 62.4], some effect in 220 participants (33.3%; 95% CI: 29.7, 36.9), and a substantial effect in 50 participants (7.6%; 95% CI: 5.6, 9.6). Strategies adopted to cope with the tax implementation included cutting down on the number of cigarettes smoked (302; 45.8%), changing to a cheaper brand of cigarette (151; 22.9%), purchasing in bulk (105; 15.9%), attempting to quit (453; 68.6%), and doing nothing (108; 16.4%). The rate of quitting smoking after attending the clinic was 20.7% (95% CI: 17.7, 23.9). Occupation (P = 0.003), education (P = 0.03), and current smoking habit (P = 0.07) were significantly associated with the impact of tobacco taxation. The strategies adopted in response to tax implementation on cigarettes were significantly associated with occupation (χ2 = 30, degrees of freedom = 12, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Tobacco taxation influenced 40% of the participants. Their attempts to opt for alternatives should be recognized in evaluating policies to reduce adverse health impacts caused by tobacco abuse.

Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales using official data from Spanish provinces: Are the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPSs) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs) the only anomalies?

INTRODUCTION

There is a literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) to measure the illicit tobacco trade. Furthermore, there are studies that have indicated that the empty pack surveys (EPSs) ordered by TTCs overestimate the size of this trade. This study simultaneously analyzed whether the EPSs established in each of the 47 Spanish provinces were accurate and measured anomalies observed in provinces where sales exceed expected values.

METHODS

To achieve the objectives of this study, provincial data on cigarette sales, prices and GDP per capita were used. These data were modeled with machine learning techniques that are widely used to detect anomalies in other areas.

RESULTS

The magnitude of the average anomaly in provinces where sales are higher than their expected values exceeds 40%, while the average anomaly in provinces where sales are lower than their expected values (as detected by the EPSs) is <15%. Furthermore, the results reveal that there is a clear geographical pattern to the provinces in which sales below reasonable values are observed. In addition, the values provided by the EPSs in Spain, as indicated in the previous literature, are slightly overestimated. Finally, some regions bordering other countries or that are highly influenced by tourism have observed sales that are higher than their expected values.

CONCLUSIONS

Cooperation between countries in their tobacco control policies can have better effects than policies developed based on information from a single country. The lack of control over the transactions of tourists and the inhabitants of bordering countries can cause important anomalies that distort the understanding of tobacco consumption that governments have based on official data.

Illicit Tobacco in Lithuania: A Cross-Sectional Survey

Taxation policies are the most cost-effective measure to reduce overall tobacco consumption. However, cigarettes in Lithuania are among the cheapest in the European Union. The threat of the illicit trade is often used to compromise evidence-based policies, pricing policies particularly. The aim of this study was to determine the extent of illicit cigarette consumption in Lithuania and identify the main characteristics of illicit cigarette smokers. The national cross-sectional survey with direct observation of the latest purchased pack of cigarettes was conducted between August and September 2019. In total, 1050 smokers aged ≥18 were interviewed face-to-face. The illicit share of the total consumption of cigarettes per year was 10.7% with 9.7% of smokers showing or describing illicit cigarette packs compared to 17% reported by industry-funded studies. Older smokers, smokers with lower education and heavy smokers were more likely to regularly purchase illicit cigarettes. The average price of an illicit pack was almost two times lower than licit. Although the illicit trade of tobacco products is a serious policy challenge, the threat of an increase in illicit trade should not delay tobacco taxation improvements.

Strengthening Primary Health-Care Services to Help Prevent and Control Long-Term (Chronic) Non-Communicable Diseases in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

The prevalence of long-term (chronic) non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is increasing globally due to an ageing global population, urbanization, changes in lifestyles, and inequitable access to healthcare. Although previously more common in high- and upper-middle-income countries, lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) are more affected, with NCDs in LMICs currently accounting for 85–90% of premature deaths among 30–69 years old. NCDs have both high morbidity and mortality and high treatment costs, not only for the diseases themselves but also for their complications. Primary health care (PHC) services are a vital component in the prevention and control of long-term NCDs, particularly in LMICs, where the health infrastructure and hospital services may be under strain. Drawing from published studies, this review analyses how PHC services can be utilized and strengthened to help prevent and control long-term NCDs in LMICs. The review finds that a PHC service approach, which deals with health in a comprehensive way, including the promotion, prevention, and control of diseases, can be useful in both high and low resource settings. Further, a PHC based approach also provides opportunities for communities to better access appropriate healthcare, which ensures more significant equity, efficiency, effectiveness, safety, and timeliness, empowers service users, and helps healthcare providers to achieve better health outcomes at lower costs.

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