Routine testing of close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases - National COVID-19 Contact Management Programme, Ireland, May to August 2020

Cross-sectional survey of compliance behaviour, knowledge and attitudes among cases and close contacts during COVID-19 pandemic

Objectives

A key public health intervention is self-isolation for cases and restriction of movement for contacts. This study aimed to identify predictors of compliance behaviour and describe knowledge and attitudes among cases and contacts identified by the national Contact Management Programme to inform the global public health response.

Study design

Secondary data analysis of anonymised cross-sectional survey data on national sample of cases and close contacts.

Methods

A sample of 1000 cases and 1000 contacts was calculated to estimate compliance within a margin of error of 3% with 95% confidence. A telephone survey administered by trained interviewers collected information on socio-demographics, compliance behaviours, knowledge, and attitudes to COVID-19 from cases and close contacts. Data analysis included chi-squared statistics and multivariable logistic regression.

Results

Most cases and contacts complied with public health guidance with similar characteristics in those who did and did not comply. Reasons for non-compliance included exercise, medical appointment, shopping, and work. Cases and contacts reported high levels of understanding about symptoms of COVID-19 and satisfaction with available information.

Conclusion

Achieving high compliance with public health guidance is feasible and requires political leadership, policy changes and practical solutions.

Infection rate and factors affecting close contacts of COVID-19 cases: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Contact tracing plays an essential role in mitigating the impact of an epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic, studies of those who have been in close contact with confirmed cases offer critical insights to understand the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 better. This study conducts a meta-analysis of existing studies' infection rates and affecting factors.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science and CNKI from the inception to April 30 2022 to identify systematic reviews. Two reviewers independently extracted the data and assessed risk of bias. Meta-analyses were conducted to calculate pooled estimates by using Stata/SE 15.1 software.

RESULTS

There were 47 studies in the meta-analysis. Among COVID-19 close contacts, older age (RR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.70, 2.21), contacts in households (RR = 2.83, 95% CI: 2.20, 3.65), and people in close contact with symptomatic infections (RR = 3.62, 95% CI: 1.88, 6.96) were associated with higher infection rates.

CONCLUSION

On average, each primary infection corresponded to 5.8 close contacts. Among COVID-19 close contacts, older age and contacts in households were associated with higher infection rates, and people in close contact with symptomatic infections had three times higher risk of infection compared to people in close contact with asymptomatic infections. In general, there are significantly more studies from China about close contacts, and the infection rate among close contacts was lower compared to other countries.

Validating and Testing an Agent-Based Model for the Spread of COVID-19 in Ireland

Agent-based models can be used to better understand the impacts of lifting restrictions or implementing interventions during a pandemic. However, agent-based models are computationally expensive, and running a model of a large population can result in a simulation taking too long to run for the model to be a useful analysis tool during a public health crisis. To reduce computing time and power while running a detailed agent-based model for the spread of COVID-19 in the Republic of Ireland, we introduce a scaling factor that equates 1 agent to 100 people in the population. We present the results from model validation and show that the scaling factor increases the variability in the model output, but the average model results are similar in scaled and un-scaled models of the same population, and the scaled model is able to accurately simulate the number of cases per day in Ireland during the autumn of 2020. We then test the usability of the model by using the model to explore the likely impacts of increasing community mixing when schools reopen after summer holidays.

Potential Application of SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Diagnostic Tests for the Detection of Infectious Individuals Attending Mass Gatherings - A Simulation Study

Rapid Antigen Diagnostic Tests (RADTs) for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 offer advantages in that they are cheaper and faster than currently used PCR tests but have reduced sensitivity and specificity. One potential application of RADTs is to facilitate gatherings of individuals, through testing of attendees at the point of, or immediately prior to entry at a venue. Understanding the baseline risk in the tested population is of particular importance when evaluating the utility of applying diagnostic tests for screening purposes. We used incidence data from January and from July-August 2021, periods of relatively high and low levels of infection, to estimate the prevalence of infectious individuals in the community at particular time points and simulated mass gatherings by sampling from a series of age cohorts. Nine different illustrative scenarios were simulated, small (n = 100), medium (n = 1,000) and large (n = 10,000) gatherings each with 3 possible age constructs: mostly younger, mostly older or a gathering with equal numbers from each age cohort. For each scenario, we estimated the prevalence of infectious attendees, then simulated the likely number of positive and negative test results, the proportion of cases detected and the corresponding positive and negative predictive values, and the cost per case identified. Our findings suggest that for each reported case on a given day, there are likely to be 13.8 additional infectious individuals also present in the community. Prevalence ranged from 0.26% for "mostly older" events in July-August, to 2.6% for "mostly younger" events in January. For small events (100 attendees) the expected number of infectious attendees ranged from <1 across all age constructs of attendees in July-August, to 2.6 for "mostly younger" events in January. For large events (10,000 attendees) the expected number of infectious attendees ranged from 27 (95% confidence intervals 12 to 45) for mostly older events in July-August, to 267 (95% confidence intervals 134 to 436) infectious attendees for mostly younger attendees in January. Given rapid changes in SARS-CoV-2 incidence over time, we developed an RShiny app to allow users to run updated simulations for specific events.

An overview of the establishment of a national contact tracing programme: a quality improvement approach in a time of pandemic

Background: With the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Irish health system needed a contact tracing and management intervention at a national level to undertake high volume, low complexity contact tracing. This paper describes the establishment and first year of a national Contact Management Programme (CMP) in Ireland, its core components, outcomes on key measures (coverage, timeliness, and training) and learnings from the process. Methods: CMP is centred on four steps, 1) case: rapid notification to a person of a result and provision of advice, 2) contacts: rapid identification of contacts, 3) control: rapid public health management of contacts, which includes testing and 4) active follow-up of close contacts with additional testing and public health advice reminder SMS and calls. The outcome measures used in this study are: 1) The proportion of all Irish cases contact traced through the CMP (Coverage), 2) the time taken to complete the 3 types of CMP calls (timeliness), 3) number of contact tracers trained and their feedback (training). Results: 246,666 positive cases were recorded using the CMP between 17th March 2020 and 30th April 2021, with contact tracing successfully completed for 237,759 cases, representing 99% and 96%, respectively, of the 248,529 cases notified in Ireland up to the 30th of April 2021. The average time taken for contact tracing to be completed was 29.4 hours (95% CI 28.9, 29.9) and the median was 16.8 hours (approximate 95% CI 15.9, 17.7). Conclusion: Using the Quality Improvement (QI) approach, the Health Service Executive (HSE) successfully established and scaled up a Contact Management Programme that rapidly notified results to people and traced their close contacts. CMP contributed to the success of the Irish health service in managing the pandemic. CMP slowed COVID-19 transmission and lessened the impact on health services capacity.

Tracing Management and Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19 Close Contacts in Cities Around Chengdu, China

Introduction: Close contacts have become a potential threat to the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The purpose of this study was to understand the epidemiological characteristics of close contacts of confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19 in the surrounding cities of Chengdu, China, so as to provide a basis for the management strategy of close contacts.

Methods: Close contacts were determined through epidemiological investigation of indicated cases, and relevant information was entered in the “Close Contact Information Management System.” Retrospective data of close contacts from January 22 to May 1, 2020 were collected and organized. Meanwhile, the contact mode, isolation mode, and medical outcome of close contacts were descriptively analyzed.

Results: A total of 986 close contacts were effectively traced, with an average age of (36.69 ± 16.86) years old, who were mainly distributed in cities of eastern Chengdu. The frequency of contact was mainly occasional contact, 80.42% of them were relatives and public transportation personnel. Besides, the time of tracking close contacts and feedback was (10.64 ± 5.52) and (7.19 ± 6.11) days, respectively. A total of seven close contacts were converted to confirmed cases.

Conclusions: Close contacts of COVID-19 have a risk of invisible infection. Early control of close contacts may be helpful to control the epidemic of COVID-19.

Numbers of close contacts of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their association with government intervention strategies

Background

Contact tracing is conducted with the primary purpose of interrupting transmission from individuals who are likely to be infectious to others. Secondary analyses of data on the numbers of close contacts of confirmed cases could also: provide an early signal of increases in contact patterns that might precede larger than expected case numbers; evaluate the impact of government interventions on the number of contacts of confirmed cases; or provide data information on contact rates between age cohorts for the purpose of epidemiological modelling. We analysed data from 140,204 close contacts of 39,861 cases in Ireland from 1st May to 1st December 2020.

Results

Negative binomial regression models highlighted greater numbers of contacts within specific population demographics, after correcting for temporal associations. Separate segmented regression models of the number of cases over time and the average number of contacts per case indicated that a breakpoint indicating a rapid decrease in the number of contacts per case in October 2020 preceded a breakpoint indicating a reduction in the number of cases by 11 days.

Conclusions

We found that the number of contacts per infected case was overdispersed, the mean varied considerable over time and was temporally associated with government interventions. Analysis of the reported number of contacts per individual in contact tracing data may be a useful early indicator of changes in behaviour in response to, or indeed despite, government restrictions. This study provides useful information for triangulating assumptions regarding the contact mixing rates between different age cohorts for epidemiological modelling.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12318-y.

Global Percentage of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections Among the Tested Population and Individuals With Confirmed COVID-19 Diagnosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Asymptomatic infections are potential sources of transmission for COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the percentage of asymptomatic infections among individuals undergoing testing (tested population) and those with confirmed COVID-19 (confirmed population).

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, EMBASE, and ScienceDirect were searched on February 4, 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

Cross-sectional studies, cohort studies, case series studies, and case series on transmission reporting the number of asymptomatic infections among the tested and confirmed COVID-19 populations that were published in Chinese or English were included.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

This meta-analysis was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline. Random-effects models were used to estimate the pooled percentage and its 95% CI. Three researchers performed the data extraction independently.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The percentage of asymptomatic infections among the tested and confirmed populations.

RESULTS

Ninety-five unique eligible studies were included, covering 29 776 306 individuals undergoing testing. The pooled percentage of asymptomatic infections among the tested population was 0.25% (95% CI, 0.23%-0.27%), which was higher in nursing home residents or staff (4.52% [95% CI, 4.15%-4.89%]), air or cruise travelers (2.02% [95% CI, 1.66%-2.38%]), and pregnant women (2.34% [95% CI, 1.89%-2.78%]). The pooled percentage of asymptomatic infections among the confirmed population was 40.50% (95% CI, 33.50%-47.50%), which was higher in pregnant women (54.11% [95% CI, 39.16%-69.05%]), air or cruise travelers (52.91% [95% CI, 36.08%-69.73%]), and nursing home residents or staff (47.53% [95% CI, 36.36%-58.70%]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this meta-analysis of the percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among populations tested for and with confirmed COVID-19, the pooled percentage of asymptomatic infections was 0.25% among the tested population and 40.50% among the confirmed population. The high percentage of asymptomatic infections highlights the potential transmission risk of asymptomatic infections in communities.

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Quantification of asymptomatic infections is fundamental for effective public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Discrepancies regarding the extent of asymptomaticity have arisen from inconsistent terminology as well as conflation of index and secondary cases which biases toward lower asymptomaticity. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and World Health Organization Global Research Database on COVID-19 between January 1, 2020 and April 2, 2021 to identify studies that reported silent infections at the time of testing, whether presymptomatic or asymptomatic. Index cases were removed to minimize representational bias that would result in overestimation of symptomaticity. By analyzing over 350 studies, we estimate that the percentage of infections that never developed clinical symptoms, and thus were truly asymptomatic, was 35.1% (95% CI: 30.7 to 39.9%). At the time of testing, 42.8% (95% prediction interval: 5.2 to 91.1%) of cases exhibited no symptoms, a group comprising both asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections. Asymptomaticity was significantly lower among the elderly, at 19.7% (95% CI: 12.7 to 29.4%) compared with children at 46.7% (95% CI: 32.0 to 62.0%). We also found that cases with comorbidities had significantly lower asymptomaticity compared to cases with no underlying medical conditions. Without proactive policies to detect asymptomatic infections, such as rapid contact tracing, prolonged efforts for pandemic control may be needed even in the presence of vaccination.

The characteristics of household transmission during COVID-19 outbreak in Okinawa, Japan from February to May 2020

From February 14 to May 31, 2020, the Okinawa prefecture confirmed 142 cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Among them, 78 were the first cases of a household, with 174 household contacts. Of the 174 contacts, 21 contracted infection, indicating a secondary attack rate of 12.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.6-17.9%). No significant differences were observed in the demographics and quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) test results between first cases who became the source of infection to the household members or not. The secondary attack rates per various characteristics of the household members were significantly different: aged > 69 years (40.9% [95% CI 20.7-63.6%]) and those with underlying diseases (36.0% [95% CI 18.0-57.5%]). When the period from the onset to the isolation of the first household case was within 3 days, the secondary attack rate was low (4.5% [95% CI 0.1-22.8%]). Among the 21 secondary cases, 11 (52.4%) developed within 5 days from symptom onset in the first case within the same household. This indicates that secondary infection within the household occurred immediately after symptom onset in the first case. Thus, isolation of a suspected patient is a solution to reduce secondary household infections.