NTCP model for hypothyroidism after supraclavicular-directed radiation therapy for breast cancer

Normal tissue complication probability models of hypothyroidism after radiotherapy for breast cancer

Purpose

We aimed to develop Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) and multivariable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models to predict the risk of radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RIHT) in breast cancer patients.

Materials and methods

A total of 1,063 breast cancer patients who underwent whole breast irradiation between 2009 and 2016 were analyzed. Individual dose-volume histograms were used to generate LKB and multivariable logistic regression models. LKB model was fit using the thyroid radiation dose-volume parameters. A multivariable model was constructed to identify potential dosimetric and clinical parameters associated with RIHT. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping techniques, and model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test.

Results

RIHT developed in 4 % of patients with a median follow-up of 77.7 months. LKB and multivariable NTCP models exhibited significant agreement between the predicted and observed results (HL P values > 0.05). The multivariable NTCP model outperformed the LKB model in predicting RIHT (AUC 0.62 vs. 0.54). In the multivariable model, systemic therapy, age, and percentage of thyroid volume receiving ≥ 10 Gy (V10) were significant prognostic factors for RIHT. The cumulative incidence of RIHT was significantly higher in patients who exceeded the cut-off values for all three risk predictors (systemic therapy, age ≥ 40 years, and thyroid V10 ≥ 26 %, P < 0.005).

Conclusions

Systemic therapy, age, and V10 of the thyroid were identified as strong risk factors for the development of RIHT. Our NTCP models provide valuable insights to clinicians for predicting and preventing hypothyroidism by identifying high-risk patients.

Incidence and risk factors of hypothyroidism after treatment for early breast cancer: a population-based cohort study

PURPOSE

An increased incidence of hypothyroidism among breast cancer survivors has been observed in earlier studies. The impact of the postoperative treatment modalities and their potential interplay on hypothyroidism development needs to be studied.

METHODS

We conducted a population- and registry-based study using the Breast Cancer Data Base Sweden (BCBaSe) including females diagnosed with breast cancer between 2006 and 2012. In total, 21,268 female patients diagnosed with early breast cancer between 2006 and 2012, with no previous prescription of thyroid hormones and no malignant diagnosis during the last ten years before breast cancer diagnosis, were included in the final analysis.

RESULTS

During the follow-up (median follow-up time 7.9 years), 1212 patients (5.7%) developed hypothyroidism at a median time of 3.45 years from the index date. No association of the systemic oncological treatment in terms of either chemotherapy or endocrine therapy and hypothyroidism development could be identified. A higher risk (HR 1.68;95% CI 1.42-1.99) of hypothyroidism identified among patients treated with radiation treatment of the regional lymph nodes whereas no increased risk in patients treated only with radiation therapy to the breast/chest wall was found (HR 1.01; 95% CI 0.86-1.19). The risk of hypothyroidism in the cohort treated with radiotherapy of the regional lymph nodes was present irrespective of the use of adjuvant chemotherapy treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the results of our study, the implementation of hypothyroidism surveillance among the breast cancer survivors treated with radiotherapy of the regional lymph nodes can be considered as reasonable in the follow-up program.

Proton Therapy in Breast Cancer: A Review of Potential Approaches for Patient Selection

Proton radiotherapy may be a compelling technical option for the treatment of breast cancer due to its unique physical property known as the "Bragg peak." This feature offers distinct advantages, promising superior dose conformity within the tumor area and reduced radiation exposure to surrounding healthy tissues, enhancing the potential for better treatment outcomes. However, proton therapy is accompanied by inherent challenges, primarily higher costs and limited accessibility when compared to well-developed photon irradiation. Thus, in clinical practice, it is important for radiation oncologists to carefully select patients before recommendation of proton therapy to ensure the transformation of dosimetric benefits into tangible clinical benefits. Yet, the optimal indications for proton therapy in breast cancer patients remain uncertain. While there is no widely recognized methodology for patient selection, numerous attempts have been made in this direction. In this review, we intended to present an inspiring summarization and discussion about the current practices and exploration on the approaches of this treatment decision-making process in terms of treatment-related side-effects, tumor control, and cost-efficiency, including the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model, the tumor control probability (TCP) model, genomic biomarkers, cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs), and so on. Additionally, we conducted an evaluation of the eligibility criteria in ongoing randomized controlled trials and analyzed their reference value in patient selection. We evaluated the pros and cons of various potential patient selection approaches and proposed possible directions for further optimization and exploration. In summary, while proton therapy holds significant promise in breast cancer treatment, its integration into clinical practice calls for a thoughtful, evidence-driven strategy. By continuously refining the patient selection criteria, we can harness the full potential of proton radiotherapy while ensuring maximum benefit for breast cancer patients.

Protocol for the T-REX-trial: tailored regional external beam radiotherapy in clinically node-negative breast cancer patients with 1-2 sentinel node macrometastases - an open, multicentre, randomised non-inferiority phase 3 trial

INTRODUCTION

Modern systemic treatment has reduced incidence of regional recurrences and improved survival in breast cancer (BC). It is thus questionable whether regional radiotherapy (RT) is still beneficial in patients with sentinel lymph node (SLN) macrometastasis. Postoperative regional RT is associated with an increased risk of arm morbidity, pneumonitis, cardiac disease and secondary cancer. Therefore, there is a need to individualise regional RT in relation to the risk of recurrence.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

In this multicentre, prospective randomised trial, clinically node-negative patients with oestrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative BC and 1-2 SLN macrometastases are eligible. Participants are randomly assigned to receive regional RT (standard arm) or not (intervention arm). Regional RT includes the axilla level I-III, the supraclavicular fossa and in selected patients the internal mammary nodes. Both groups receive RT to the remaining breast. Chest-wall RT after mastectomy is given in the standard arm, but in the intervention arm only in cases of widespread multifocality according to national guidelines. RT quality assurance is an integral part of the trial.The trial aims to include 1350 patients between March 2023 and December 2028 in Sweden and Norway. Primary outcome is recurrence-free survival (RFS) at 5 years. Non-inferiority will be declared if outcome in the de-escalation arm is not >4.5 percentage units below that with regional RT, corresponding to an HR of 1.41 assuming 88% 5-year RFS with standard treatment. Secondary outcomes include locoregional recurrence, overall survival, patient-reported arm morbidity and health-related quality of life. Gene expression analysis and tumour tissue-based studies to identify prognostic and predictive markers for benefit of regional RT are included.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial protocol is approved by the Swedish Ethics Authority (Dnr-2022-02178-01, 2022-05093-02, 2023-00826-02, 2023-03035-02). Results will be presented at scientific conferences and in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05634889.

Breast cancer, breast cancer-directed radiation therapy and risk of hypothyroidism: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Breast cancer and breast cancer-directed radiation therapy (RT) may increase the risk of late effects, such as hypothyroidism. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the association between breast cancer, RT, and risk of hypothyroidism in breast cancer survivors.

METHODS

Through February 2022, we searched PubMed, EMBASE, and references of relevant articles, to identify papers on breast cancer and breast cancer-directed RT and subsequent risk of hypothyroidism. Articles were screened by title and abstract and reviewed for eligibility. We used a pre-formed data extraction sheet and identified key design elements that could potentially introduce bias. The main outcome was the confounder-adjusted relative risk (RR) of hypothyroidism in breast cancer survivors versus women without breast cancer, and in breast cancer survivors according to the receipt of RT to the supraclavicular lymph nodes. We used a random-effects model to calculate pooled RRs and associated 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

RESULTS

From 951 papers screened by title and abstract, 34 full-text papers were reviewed for eligibility. We included 20 studies published between 1985 and 2021-19 were cohort studies. Compared with women without breast cancer, the pooled RR of hypothyroidism in breast cancer survivors was 1.48 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.87), with highest risk associated with RT to the supraclavicular region (RR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.16, 2.46). The most important limitations of the studies were small sample size yielding estimates with low precision, and lack of data on potential confounders.

CONCLUSION

Breast cancer and radiation therapy to the supraclavicular lymph nodes is associated with an increased risk of hypothyroidism.

Radiation-Induced Hypothyroidism in Patients With Breast Cancer After Hypofractionated Radiation Therapy: A Prospective Cohort Study

PURPOSE

Our objective was to assess the incidence and risk factors of radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) after adjuvant hypofractionated radiation therapy (RT) in patients with breast cancer.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Eligible patients with breast cancer who were treated with hypofractionated RT were prospectively evaluated. Thyroid function tests were performed before and at regular times after RT. RHT was defined as twice elevated serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) with decreased or normal free thyroxin after RT. The patient, tumor, and treatment factors were evaluated for possible associations with the risk of RHT.

RESULTS

Five hundred patients were analyzed. All patients underwent chest wall/breast with or without regional nodal irradiation. Among them, 369 (73.8%) patients received supraclavicular nodal radiation (SCRT). Eighty-two (16.4%) patients had elevated TSH before RT. At a median follow-up of 21.9 months, 131 (26.2%) patients developed RHT, and 59 (11.8%) patients received thyroid hormone-replacement therapy. Patients with SCRT had a significantly increased 2-year cumulative incidence of RHT compared with patients without SCRT (31.5% and 11.4%, P<.001). The peak incidence of RHT occurred around 6 to 12 months after RT. Multivariate analysis revealed that elevated baseline TSH and increased thyroid mean dose (Dmean) were independent risk factors for developing RHT. After adjusted for baseline TSH, there was a nonlinear relationship between thyroid Dmean and the risk of RHT. Dmean >21 Gy was the threshold value for predicting RHT (hazard ratio, 2.2; P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of RHT was high in patients with breast cancer. Thyroid function test should be started no later than 6 months after RT. We recommend that the Dmean of the thyroid should be kept lower than 21 Gy for hypofractionated RT.

Thyroid volume changes following adjuvant radiation therapy for breast cancer

Background and purpose

Incidental thyroid gland irradiation frequently occurs in breast cancer patients who receive regional nodal irradiation (RNI) to the supraclavicular (SCV) region. Recent studies suggest hypothyroidism (HT) is a complication of radiation therapy (RT) that includes SCV fields. We retrospectively analyzed patients who received RNI to evaluate thyroid gland evolution following RT as well as its association with the development of HT.

Materials and methods

61 breast cancer patients received SCV-directed RT between 2007 and 2019 and met inclusion criteria. Thyroid glands were retrospectively contoured on CT simulation and follow-up images. Individual dose-volume histograms were analyzed to determine thyroid volume within and outside specific isodose lines. Relative thyroid volume changes based on different radiation doses were estimated by fusing post-RT scans with CT simulation. Logistic regression was performed to assess thyroid volume changes as a factor in the development of HT.

Results

Median pre-treatment thyroid volume was 11.8 cc (range: 6.3-74.1 cc) with a median of 42.2 % within the 20 Gy and 23.2 % within the 40 Gy isodose lines. A significant decrease in thyroid volume was noted by 1-year post-treatment (p < 0.0001) and thereafter. By 4 years post-treatment, average thyroid volume was decreased by 29.7 % (range: 2.3-64.4 %). Thyroid volume receiving 40 Gy or higher demonstrated a greater decrease compared to those receiving lower irradiation dosage. HT occurred in 17 patients (27.9 %). Patients who developed HT displayed a larger decrease in the thyroid volume receiving between 20 and 40 Gy at 12 months (p = 0.033).

Conclusion

Our study demonstrates for the first time that a reduction in thyroid volume may be seen as early as 6 months after SCV-directed RT for breast cancer, which correlates with development of clinical and subclinical HT. Furthermore, a dose-dependent correlation exists between thyroid subvolume reduction and SCV-directed RT in breast cancer patients. As feasible, efforts should be made to reduce the dose to the thyroid in patients who undergo RNI for breast cancer.

Early post-treatment 18F-FDG PET/CT for predicting radiation-induced hypothyroidism in head and neck cancer

BACKGROUND

Radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RIHT) is a common, but underestimated, late adverse effect in head and neck cancer. We investigated the value of early post-treatment ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) for predicting RIHT.

METHODS

We searched our institutional database for patients aged ≥ 20 years who had undergone definitive radiotherapy for nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal cancer between 2005 and 2017, followed by ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT within 180 days of radiotherapy completion. We visually assessed and compared PET/CT and baseline characteristics in patients with and without RIHT using the chi-square test for categorical variables and the t-test for continuous variables. Variable predictive ability was evaluated by measuring the area under receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

Fifty-two patients were included; 22 (42%) developed RIHT and 30 (58%) did not. Two patients presented with diffuse thyroid uptake on PET/CT via visual assessment, and both developed RIHT later. Among the PET/CT variables, thyroid functioning volume was significantly higher in patients without RIHT than in patients with RIHT (16.30 ± 6.03 cm³ vs. 10.61 ± 3.81 cm³, p < 0.001). The maximum standard uptake values of the thyroid and pituitary glands did not differ significantly between the groups. Two patient characteristics, pretreatment thyroid volume and mean radiotherapy dose to the thyroid, also showed significant differences between the groups. An algorithmic approach combining visual grading of thyroid ¹⁸F-FDG uptake and thyroid functioning volume cutoff of 14.01 yielded an area under curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.98); the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 87.0%, 82.3%, 80.0%, and 88.9%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Early post-treatment PET/CT-derived thyroid functioning volume was a good predictor of RIHT development. Diffusely increased thyroid ¹⁸F-FDG uptake on PET/CT may indicate impending RIHT. Routine surveillance of thyroid function is warranted in patients at high risk of developing RIHT.

Evaluation of the Radiobiological Models predicting the Radiation-Induced Hypothyroidism in the Partially Irradiated Thyroid Gland of Patients with Breast Cancer

Background: Radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) is one of the side effects that might have an impact on the quality of life of patients with breast cancer treated with radiotherapy. Objectives: The aim of the current study was to evaluate the performances of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) and Log-Logistic models in the prediction of hypothyroidism (HT) as well as the estimation of the model parameters for the incidence of RHT among patients with breast cancer. Methods: Fifty-two patients treated with radiation therapy (RT) for breast cancer were prospectively evaluated. Patients' serum samples [tri-iodothyronine, thyroxine, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free triiodothyronine, and free thyroxine] were measured before RT and also at a regular time interval until 1 year after the completion of RT. For each patient, dose-volume histograms (DVHs) of the thyroid gland were derived from their treatment planning dataset. Patients whose TSH levels were higher than normal with a decrease in FT4 levels were considered as cases with RHT. The LKB and Log-Logistic radiobiological models were evaluated by comparing them with the resultant follow-up data. The parameters for radiobiological models have been deduced by fitting the models to the follow-up data. The models were fitted in a Bayesian setting and compared according to the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC). Results: Twenty-one (40%) patients developed RHT at a follow-up of 1 year after the end of radiation treatment. The fitted values of D50 for the LKB and Log-Logistic models were 37.71 and 25.50 Gy, respectively for the partially irradiated thyroid of patients with breast cancer. The mean time to the incidence of RHT was obtained at 6.7 months in the studied group. Conclusions: A volumetric effect was found for the thyroid gland in the implemented normal tissue complication probability models. Compared to the follow-up data, the Log-Logistic model was ranked as the best model for predicting the rate of RHT in patients with breast cancer.

An Underestimated Toxicity Radiation-Induced Hypothyroidism in Patients Multimodally Treated for Breast Cancer

Radiation therapy is part of the therapeutic arsenal for breast cancer, whether it is adjuvant treatment after lumpectomy or radical mastectomy, or it is used as a palliative option in the case of metastatic or recurrent disease. Significant advances in diagnostic and therapeutic stratification of breast cancers have significantly prolonged survival, even in the metastatic stage. Exposure of patients during the course of the disease in a multidisciplinary therapeutic approach including chemotherapy, hormone therapy, targeted anti-HER therapies or CDK4/6 inhibitors had led to improved survival but with the price of additional toxicity. Among them, hypothyroidism is a well-known consequence of external radiation therapy, especially in the case of cervical region irradiation, including supraclavicular and infra-clavicular nodal levels. In this situation, the thyroid gland is considered as an organ at risk (OAR) and receives a significant dose of radiation. Subclinical hypothyroidism is a common endocrine disorder characterized by elevated TSH levels with normal levels of FT4 (free T4) and FT3 (free T3), and as a late effect, primary hypothyroidism is one of the late effects that significantly affects the quality of life for patients with breast cancer receiving multimodal treatment. Hypothyroidism has a significant impact on quality of life, most often occurring as late clinical toxicity, secondary to thyroid irradiation at doses between 30 and 70 Gy. Dose-volume parameters of irradiation, gland function at the beginning of the treatment and associated systemic therapies may be factors that alter thyroid radio-sensitivity and affect thyroid gland tolerance. In the case of head and neck tumor pathology, in which doses of >50 Gy are routinely used, the thyroid gland is generally considered as an OAR, the rate of radio-induced hypothyroidism being estimated at rates of between 20% and 52%. For breast cancer, the thyroid is often neglected in terms of dosimetry protection, the rate of late dysfunction being 6–21%.

Radiation-Induced Toxicity Risks in Photon Versus Proton Therapy for Synchronous Bilateral Breast Cancer

Purpose

This study compares photon and proton therapy plans for patients with synchronous bilateral early breast cancer and estimates risks of early and late radiation-induced toxicities.

Materials and Methods

Twenty-four patients with synchronous bilateral early breast cancer receiving adjuvant radiation therapy using photons, 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy or volumetric modulated arc therapy, were included and competing pencil beam scanning proton therapy plans were created. Risks of dermatitis, pneumonitis, acute esophageal toxicity, lung and breast fibrosis, hypothyroidism, secondary lung and esophageal cancer and coronary artery events were estimated using published dose-response relationships and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models.

Results

The primary clinical target volume V95% and/or nodal clinical target volume V90% were less than 95% in 17 photon therapy plans and none of the proton plans. Median NTCP of radiation dermatitis ≥ grade 2 was 18.3% (range, 5.4-41.7) with photon therapy and 58.4% (range, 31.4-69.7) with proton therapy. Median excess absolute risk (EAR) of secondary lung cancer at age 80 for current and former smokers was 4.8% (range, 0.0-17.0) using photons and 2.7% (range, 0.0-13.6) using protons. Median EAR of coronary event at age 80, assuming all patients have preexisting cardiac risk factors, was 1.0% (range, 0.0-5.6) with photons and 0.2% (range, 0.0-1.3) with protons.

Conclusion

Proton therapy plans improved target coverage and reduced risk of coronary artery event and secondary lung cancer while increasing the risk of radiation dermatitis.