A new Hepatitis B model in light of asymptomatic carriers and vaccination study through Atangana–Baleanu derivative

A multi-layer neural network approach for the stability analysis of the Hepatitis B model

In the present study, we explore the dynamics of Hepatitis B virus infection, a significant global health issue, through a newly developed dynamics system. This model is distinguished by its inclusion of asymptomatic carriers and the impact of vaccination and treatment strategies. Compared to Hepatitis A, Hepatitis B poses a more serious health risk, with some cases progressing from acute to chronic. To diagnose and predict disease recurrence, the basic reproduction number (R0) is calculated. We investigate the stability of the disease's dynamics under different conditions, using the Lyapunov function to confirm our model's global stability. Our findings highlight the relevance of vaccination and early treatment in reducing Hepatitis B virus spread, making them a useful tool for public health efforts aiming at eradicating Hepatitis B virus. In our research, we investigate the dynamics of a specific model that is characterized by a system of differential equations. This work uses deep neural networks (DNNs) technique to improve model accuracy, proving the use of DNNs in epidemiological modeling. Additionally, we want to find the curves that suit the target solutions with the minimum residual errors. The simulations we conducted demonstrate our methodology's capability to accurately predict the behavior of systems across various conditions. We rigorously test the solutions obtained via the DNNs by comparing them to benchmark solutions and undergoing stages of testing, validation, and training. To determine the accuracy and reliability of our approach, we perform a series of analyses, including convergence studies, error distribution evaluations, regression analyses, and detailed curve fitting for each equation.

Predictive modeling of hepatitis B viral dynamics: a caputo derivative-based approach using artificial neural networks

A fractional model for the kinetics of hepatitis B transmission was developed. The hepatitis B virus significantly affects the world's economic and health systems. Acute and chronic carrier phases play a crucial part in the spread of the HBV infection. The Hepatitis B infection can be spread by chronic carriers even though they show no symptoms. In this article, we looked into the Hepatitis B virus's various stages of infection-related transmission and built a nonlinear epidemic. Then, a fractional hepatitis B virus model using a Caputo derivative and vaccine effects is created. First, we determined the proposed model's essential reproductive value and equilibria. With the aid of Fixed Point Theory, a qualitative analysis of the problem's approximative root has been produced. The Adams-Bashforth predictor-corrector scheme is used to aid in the iterative approximate technique's evaluation of the fractional system under consideration that has the Caputo derivative. In the final section, a graphical representation compares various noninteger orders and displays the discovered scheme findings. In this study, we've utilized Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques to partition the dataset into three categories: training, testing, and validation. Our analysis delves deep into each category, comprehensively examining the dataset's characteristics and behaviors within these divisions. The study comprehensively analyzes the fractional HBV transmission model, incorporating both mathematical and computational approaches. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of HBV infection and can inform the development of effective public health interventions.

Global dynamics and computational modeling for analyzing and controlling Hepatitis B: A novel epidemic approach

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a global public health issue. We offer a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of HBV, which can be successfully controlled with vaccine and treatment. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) causes a significantly more severe and protracted disease compared to hepatitis A. While it initially presents as an acute disease, in approximately 5 to 10% of cases, it can develop into a chronic disease that causes permanent damage to the liver. The hepatitis B virus can remain active outside the body for at least seven days. If the virus penetrates an individual's body without immunization, it may still result in infection. Upon exposure to HBV, the symptoms often last for a duration ranging from 10 days to 6 months. In this study, we developed a new model for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) that includes asymptomatic carriers, vaccination, and treatment classes to gain a comprehensive knowledge of HBV dynamics. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is calculated to identify future recurrence. The local and global stabilities of the proposed model are evaluated for values of [Formula: see text] that are both below and above 1. The Lyapunov function is employed to ensure the global stability of the HBV model. Further, the existence and uniqueness of the proposed model are demonstrated. To look at the solution of the proposed model graphically, we used a useful numerical strategy, such as the non-standard finite difference method, to obtain more thorough numerical findings for the parameters that have a significant impact on disease elimination. In addition, the study of treatment class in the population, we may assess the effectiveness of alternative medicines to treat infected populations can be determined. Numerical simulations and graphical representations are employed to illustrate the implications of our theoretical conclusions.

Advancing COVID-19 stochastic modeling: a comprehensive examination integrating vaccination classes through higher-order spectral scheme analysis

This research article presents a comprehensive analysis aimed at enhancing the stochastic modeling of COVID-19 dynamics by incorporating vaccination classes through a higher-order spectral scheme. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the critical need for accurate and adaptable modeling techniques to inform public health interventions. In this study, we introduce a novel approach that integrates various vaccination classes into a stochastic model to provide a more nuanced understanding of disease transmission dynamics. We employ a higher-order spectral scheme to capture complex interactions between different population groups, vaccination statuses, and disease parameters. Our analysis not only enhances the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 modeling but also facilitates the exploration of various vaccination strategies and their impact on disease control. The findings of this study hold significant implications for optimizing vaccination campaigns and guiding policy decisions in the ongoing battle against the COVID-19 pandemic.

A memory effect model to predict COVID-19: analysis and simulation

On 19 September 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that asymptomatic individuals, those who have close contact with infected person, be tested. Also, American society for biological clinical comments on testing of asymptomatic individuals. So, we proposed a new mathematical model for evaluating the population-level impact of contact rates (social-distancing) and the rate at which asymptomatic people are hospitalized (isolated) following testing due to close contact with documented infected people. The model is a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations that is fitted and parameterized by least square curve fitting using COVID-19 pandemic data of Pakistan from 1 October 2020 to 30 April 2021. The fractional derivative is used to understand the biological process with crossover behavior and memory effect. The reproduction number and conditions for asymptotic stability are derived diligently. The most common non-integer Caputo derivative is used for deeper analysis and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 infection. The fractional-order Adams-Bashforth method is used for the solution of the model. In light of the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in terms of social distancing and isolation are being investigated. The reduction in the baseline value of contact rates and enhancement in hospitalization rate of symptomatic can lead the elimination of the pandemic.

Analysis and dynamical transmission of Covid-19 model by using Caputo-Fabrizio derivative

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is an urgent problem with unpredictable properties and is widespread worldwide through human interactions. This work aims to use Caputo-Fabrizio fractional operators to explore the complex action of the Covid-19 Omicron variant. A fixed-point theorem and an iterative approach are used to prove the existence and singularity of the model’s system of solutions. Laplace transform is used to generalize the fractional order model for stability and unique solution of the iterative scheme. A numerical scheme is also constructed by using an exponential law kernel for the computational and simulation of the Covid-19 Model. The graphs demonstrate that the fractional model of Covid-19 is accurate. In the sense of Caputo-Fabrizio, one can obtain trustworthy information about the model in either an integer or non-integer scenario. This sense also provides useful information about the model’s complexity.

Mathematical modeling of corona virus (COVID-19) and stability analysis

In this paper, the mathematical modeling of the novel corona virus (COVID-19) is considered. A brief relationship between the unknown hosts and bats is described. Then the interaction among the seafood market and peoples is studied. After that, the proposed model is reduced by assuming that the seafood market has an adequate source of infection that is capable of spreading infection among the people. The reproductive number is calculated and it is proved that the proposed model is locally asymptotically stable when the reproductive number is less than unity. Then, the stability results of the endemic equilibria are also discussed. To understand the complex dynamical behavior, fractal-fractional derivative is used. Therefore, the proposed model is then converted to fractal-fractional order model in Atangana-Baleanu (AB) derivative and solved numerically by using two different techniques. For numerical simulation Adam-Bash Forth method based on piece-wise Lagrangian interpolation is used. The infection cases for Jan-21, 2020, till Jan-28, 2020 are considered. Then graphical consequences are compared with real reported data of Wuhan city to demonstrate the efficiency of the method proposed by us.

A fractional order model for the co-interaction of COVID-19 and Hepatitis B virus

Fractional differential equations are beginning to gain widespread usage in modeling physical and biological processes. It is worth mentioning that the standard mathematical models of integer-order derivatives, including nonlinear models, do not constitute suitable framework in many cases. In this work, a mathematical model for COVID-19 and Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) co-interaction is developed and studied using the Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative. The necessary conditions of the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the proposed model are studied. The local stability analysis is carried out when the reproduction number is less than one. Using well constructed Lyapunov functions, the disease free and endemic equilibria are proven to be globally asymptotically stable under certain conditions. Employing fixed point theory, the stability of the iterative scheme to approximate the solution of the model is discussed. The model is fitted to real data from the city of Wuhan, China, and important parameters relating to each disease and their co-infection, are estimated from the fitting. The approximate solutions of the model are compared using the integer and fractional order derivatives. The impact of the fractional derivative on the proposed model is also highlighted. The results proven in this paper illustrate that HBV and COVID-19 transmission rates can greatly impact the dynamics of the co-infection of both diseases. It is concluded that to control the co-circulation of both diseases in a population, efforts must be geared towards preventing incident infection with either or both diseases.

Mathematical modeling and analysis of the SARS-Cov-2 disease with reinfection

The COVID-19 infection which is still infecting many individuals around the world and at the same time the recovered individuals after the recovery are infecting again. This reinfection of the individuals after the recovery may lead the disease to worse in the population with so many challenges to the health sectors. We study in the present work by formulating a mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 with reinfection. We first briefly discuss the formulation of the model with the assumptions of reinfection, and then study the related qualitative properties of the model. We show that the reinfection model is stable locally asymptotically when R0<1. For R0≤1, we show that the model is globally asymptotically stable. Further, we consider the available data of coronavirus from Pakistan to estimate the parameters involved in the model. We show that the proposed model shows good fitting to the infected data. We compute the basic reproduction number with the estimated and fitted parameters numerical value is R0≈1.4962. Further, we simulate the model using realistic parameters and present the graphical results. We show that the infection can be minimized if the realistic parameters (that are sensitive to the basic reproduction number) are taken into account. Also, we observe the model prediction for the total infected cases in the future fifth layer of COVID-19 in Pakistan that may begin in the second week of February 2022.

Modeling and analysis of a fractional anthroponotic cutaneous leishmania model with Atangana-Baleanu derivative

Very recently, Atangana and Baleanu defined a novel arbitrary order derivative having a kernel of non-locality and non-singularity, known as AB derivative. We analyze a non-integer order Anthroponotic Leshmania Cutaneous (ACL) problem exploiting this novel AB derivative. We derive equilibria of the model and compute its threshold quantity, i.e. the so-called reproduction number. Conditions for the local stability of the no-disease as well as the disease endemic states are derived in terms of the threshold quantity. The qualitative analysis for solution of the proposed problem have derived with the aid of the theory of fixed point. We use the predictor corrector numerical approach to solve the proposed fractional order model for approximate solution. We also provide, the numerical simulations for each of the compartment of considered model at different fractional orders along with comparison with integer order to elaborate the importance of modern derivative. The fractional investigation shows that the non-integer order derivative is more realistic about the inner dynamics of the Leishmania model lying between integer order.

Fractal fractional based transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic model

We investigate the dynamical behavior of Coronavirus (COVID-19) for different infections phases and multiple routes of transmission. In this regard, we study a COVID-19 model in the context of fractal-fractional order operator. First, we study the COVID-19 dynamics with a fractal fractional-order operator in the framework of Atangana-Baleanu fractal-fractional operator. We estimated the basic reduction number and the stability results of the proposed model. We show the data fitting to the proposed model. The system has been investigated for qualitative analysis. Novel numerical methods are introduced for the derivation of an iterative scheme of the fractal-fractional Atangana-Baleanu order. Finally, numerical simulations are performed for various orders of fractal-fractional dimension.

Mathematical modeling and stability analysis of the COVID-19 with quarantine and isolation

The present paper focuses on the modeling of the COVID-19 infection with the use of hospitalization, isolation and quarantine. Initially, we construct the model by spliting the entire population into different groups. We then rigorously analyze the model by presenting the necessary basic mathematical features including the feasible region and positivity of the problem solution. Further, we evaluate the model possible equilibria. The theoretical expression of the most important mathematical quantity of major public health interest called the basic reproduction number is presented. We are taking into account to study the disease free equilibrium by studying its local and global asymptotical analysis. We considering the cases of the COVID-19 infection of Pakistan population and find the parameters using the estimation with the help of nonlinear least square and have R 0 ≈ 1 . 95 . Further, to determine the influence of the model parameters on disease dynamics we perform the sensitivity analysis. Simulations of the model are presented using estimated parameters and the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions on disease dynamics is shown with the help of graphical results. The graphical interpretation justify that the effective utilization of keeping the social-distancing, making the quarantine of people (or contact-tracing policy) and to make hospitalization of confirmed infected people that dramatically reduces the number of infected individuals (enhancing the quarantine or contact-tracing by 50% from its baseline reduces 84% in the predicted number of confirmed infected cases). Moreover, it is observed that without quarantine and hospitalization the scenario of the disease in Pakistan is very worse and the infected cases are raising rapidly. Therefore, the present study suggests that still, a proper and effective application of these non-pharmaceutical interventions are necessary to curtail or minimize the COVID-19 infection in Pakistan.

Modeling the dynamics of coronavirus with super-spreader class: A fractal-fractional approach

Super-spreaders of the novel coronavirus disease (or COVID-19) are those with greater potential for disease transmission to infect other people. Understanding and isolating the super-spreaders are important for controlling the COVID-19 incidence as well as future infectious disease outbreaks. Many scientific evidences can be found in the literature on reporting and impact of super-spreaders and super-spreading events on the COVID-19 dynamics. This paper deals with the formulation and simulation of a new epidemic model addressing the dynamics of COVID-19 with the presence of super-spreader individuals. In the first step, we formulate the model using classical integer order nonlinear differential system composed of six equations. The individuals responsible for the disease transmission are further categorized into three sub-classes, i.e., the symptomatic, super-spreader and asymptomatic. The model is parameterized using the actual infected cases reported in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia in order to enhance the biological suitability of the study. Moreover, to analyze the impact of memory index, we extend the model to fractional case using the well-known Caputo-Fabrizio derivative. By making use of the Picard-Lindelöf theorem and fixed point approach, we establish the existence and uniqueness criteria for the fractional-order model. Furthermore, we applied the novel fractal-fractional operator in Caputo-Fabrizio sense to obtain a more generalized model. Finally, to simulate the models in both fractional and fractal-fractional cases, efficient iterative schemes are utilized in order to present the impact of the fractional and fractal orders coupled with the key parameters (including transmission rate due to super-spreaders) on the pandemic peaks.

Model of Epidemic Kinetics with a Source on the Example of Moscow

A new theoretical model of epidemic kinetics is considered, which uses elements of the physical model of the kinetics of the atomic level populations of an active laser medium as follows: a description of states and their populations, transition rates between states, an integral operator, and a source of influence. It is shown that to describe a long-term epidemic, it is necessary to use the concept of the source of infection. With a model constant source of infection, the epidemic, in terms of the number of actively infected people, goes to a stationary regime, which does not depend on the population size and the characteristics of quarantine measures. Statistics for Moscow daily increase in infected is used to determine the real source of infection. An interpretation of the waves generated by the source is given. It is shown that more accurate statistics of excess mortality can only be used to clarify the frequency rate of mortality of the epidemic, but not to determine the source of infection.

A mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 in variable-order fractional derivative

A new coronavirus mathematical with hospitalization is considered with the consideration of the real cases from March 06, 2021 till the end of April 30, 2021. The essential mathematical results for the model are presented. We show the model stability whenR 0 < 1 in the absence of infection. We show that the system is stable locally asymptotically whenR 0 < 1 at infection free state. We also show that the system is globally asymptotically stable in the disease absence whenR 0 < 1 . Data have been used to fit accurately to the model and found the estimated basic reproduction number to beR 0 = 1.2036 . Some graphical results for the effective parameters are drawn for the disease elimination. In addition, a variable-order model is introduced, and so as to handle the outbreak effectively and efficiently, a genetic algorithm is used to produce high-quality control. Numerical simulations clearly show that decision-makers may develop helpful and practical strategies to manage future waves by implementing optimum policies.