Near real-time vegetation anomaly detection with MODIS NDVI: Timeliness vs. accuracy and effect of anomaly computation options

Urban residential greenness and cancer mortality: Evaluating the causal mediation role of air pollution in a large cohort

Evidence linking greenness to all-site and site-specific cancers remains limited, and the complex role of air pollution in this pathway is unclear. We aimed to fill these gaps by using a large cohort in southern China. A total of 654,115 individuals were recruited from 2009 to 2015 and followed-up until December 2020. We calculated the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in a 500-m buffer around the participants' residences to represent the greenness exposure. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to evaluate the impact of greenness on the risk of all-site and site-specific cancer mortality. Additionally, we assessed both the mediation and interaction roles of air pollution (i.e., PM2.5, PM10, and NO2) in the greenness-cancer association through a causal mediation analysis using a four-way decomposition method. Among the 577,643 participants, 10,088 cancer deaths were recorded. We found a 10% (95% CI: 5-16%) reduction in all-site cancer mortality when the NDVI increased from the lowest to the highest quartile. When stratified by cancer type, our estimates suggested 18% (95% CI: 8-27%) and 51% (95% CI: 16-71%) reductions in mortality due to respiratory system cancer and brain and nervous system cancer, respectively. For the above protective effect, a large proportion could be explained by the mediation (all-site cancer: 1.0-27.7%; respiratory system cancer: 1.2-32.3%; brain and nervous system cancer: 3.6-109.1%) and negative interaction (all-site cancer: 2.1-25.7%; respiratory system cancer: 2.0-25.7%; brain and nervous system cancer: not significant) effects of air pollution. We found that particulate matter (i.e., PM2.5 and PM10) had a stronger causal mediation effect (25.0-109.1%) than NO2 (1.0-3.6%), while NO2 had a stronger interaction effect (25.7%) than particulate matter (2.0-2.8%). In summary, greenness was significantly beneficial in reducing the mortality of all-site, respiratory system, and brain and nervous system cancer in southern China, with the impact being modulated and mediated by air pollution.

Towards understanding climate change impacts: monitoring the vegetation dynamics of terrestrial national parks in Indonesia

Monitoring vegetation dynamics in terrestrial national parks (TNPs) is crucial for ensuring sustainable environmental management and mitigating the potential negative impacts of short- and long-term disturbances understanding the effect of climate change within natural and protected areas. This study aims to monitor the vegetation dynamics of TNPs in Indonesia by first categorizing them into the regions of Sumatra, Jawa, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Eastern Indonesia and then applying ready-to-use MODIS EVI time-series imageries (MOD13Q1) taken from 2000 to 2022 on the GEE cloud-computing platform. Specifically, this research investigates the greening and browning fraction trends using Sen's slope, considers seasonality by analyzing the maximum and minimum EVI values, and assesses anomalous years by comparing the annual time series and long-term median EVI value. The findings reveal significantly increasing greening trends in most TNPs, except Danau Sentarum, from 2000 to 2022. The seasonality analysis shows that most TNPs exhibit peak and trough greenness at the end of the rainy and dry seasons, respectively, as the vegetation response to precipitation increases and decreases. Anomalies in seasonality that is affected by climate change was detected in all of the regions. To increase TNPs resilience, suggested measures include active reforestation and implementation of Assisted Natural Regeneration, strengthen the enforcement of fundamental managerial task, and forest fire management.

Residential greenness alleviated the adverse associations of long-term exposure to ambient PM1 with cardiac conduction abnormalities in rural adults

BACKGROUND

Ambient air pollution was linked to elevated risks of adverse cardiovascular events, and alterations in electrophysiological properties of the heart might be potential pathways. However, there is still lacking research exploring the associations between PM1 exposure and cardiac conduction parameters. Additionally, the interactive effects of PM1 and residential greenness on cardiac conduction parameters in resource-limited areas remain unknown.

METHODS

A total of 27483 individuals were enrolled from the Henan Rural Cohort study. Cardiac conduction parameters were tested by 12-lead electrocardiograms. Concentrations of PM1 were evaluated by satellite-based spatiotemporal models. Levels of residential greenness were assessed using Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Logistic regression models and restricted cubic splines were fitted to explore the associations of PM1 and residential greenness exposure with cardiac conduction abnormalities risk, and the interaction plot method was performed to visualize their interaction effects.

RESULTS

The 3-year median concentration of PM1 was 56.47 (2.55) μg/m3, the adjusted odds rate (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for abnormal HR, PR, QRS, and QTc interval risk in response to 1 μg/m3 increase in PM1 were 1.064 (1.044, 1.085), 1.037 (1.002, 1.074), 1.061 (1.044, 1.077) and 1.046 (1.028, 1.065), respectively. Participants exposure to higher levels of PM1 had increased risks of abnormal HR (OR = 1.221, 95%CI: 1.144, 1.303), PR (OR = 1.061, 95%CI: 0.940, 1.196), QRS (OR = 1.225, 95%CI: 1.161, 1.294) and QTc interval (OR = 1.193, 95%CI: 1.121, 1.271) compared with lower levels of PM1. Negative interactive effects of exposure to PM1 and residential greenness on abnormal HR, QRS, and QTc intervals were observed (Pfor interaction < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Long-term PM1 exposure was associated with elevated cardiac conduction abnormalities risks, and this adverse association might be mitigated by residential greenness to some extent. These findings emphasize that controlling PM1 pollution and increasing greenness levels might be effective strategies to reduce cardiovascular disease burdens in resource-limited areas.

Is deeper always better? Evaluating deep learning models for yield forecasting with small data

Predicting crop yields, and especially anomalously low yields, is of special importance for food insecure countries. In this study, we investigate a flexible deep learning approach to forecast crop yield at the provincial administrative level based on deep 1D and 2D convolutional neural networks using limited data. This approach meets the operational requirements-public and global records of satellite data in an application ready format with near real time updates-and can be transferred to any country with reliable yield statistics. Three-dimensional histograms of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climate data are used as input to the 2D model, while simple administrative-level time series averages of NDVI and climate data to the 1D model. The best model architecture is automatically identified during efficient and extensive hyperparameter optimization. To demonstrate the relevance of this approach, we hindcast (2002-2018) the yields of Algeria's three main crops (barley, durum and soft wheat) and contrast the model's performance with machine learning algorithms and conventional benchmark models used in a previous study. Simple benchmarks such as peak NDVI remained challenging to outperform while machine learning models were superior to deep learning models for all forecasting months and all tested crops. We attribute the poor performance of deep learning to the small size of the dataset available.

A multi-satellite framework to rapidly evaluate extreme biosphere cascades: The Western US 2021 drought and heatwave

The increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes and complex ecosystem responses motivate the need for integrated observational studies at low latency to determine biosphere responses and carbon-climate feedbacks. Here, we develop a satellite-based rapid attribution workflow and demonstrate its use at a 1-2-month latency to attribute drivers of the carbon cycle feedbacks during the 2020-2021 Western US drought and heatwave. In the first half of 2021, concurrent negative photosynthesis anomalies and large positive column CO2 anomalies were detected with satellites. Using a simple atmospheric mass balance approach, we estimate a surface carbon efflux anomaly of 132 TgC in June 2021, a magnitude corroborated independently with a dynamic global vegetation model. Integrated satellite observations of hydrologic processes, representing the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC), show that these surface carbon flux anomalies are largely due to substantial reductions in photosynthesis because of a spatially widespread moisture-deficit propagation through the SPAC between 2020 and 2021. A causal model indicates deep soil moisture stores partially drove photosynthesis, maintaining its values in 2020 and driving its declines throughout 2021. The causal model also suggests legacy effects may have amplified photosynthesis deficits in 2021 beyond the direct effects of environmental forcing. The integrated, observation framework presented here provides a valuable first assessment of a biosphere extreme response and an independent testbed for improving drought propagation and mechanisms in models. The rapid identification of extreme carbon anomalies and hotspots can also aid mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Animal conflicts escalate in a warmer world

The potential for climate change to affect animal behaviour is widely recognized, yet its possible consequences on aggressiveness are still unclear. If warming and drought limit the availability of food resources, climate change may elicit an increase of intraspecific conflicts stemming from resource competition. By measuring aggressivity indices in a group-living, herbivorous mammal (the Apennine chamois Rupicapra pyrenaica ornata) in two sites differing in habitat quality, and coupling them with estimates of plant productivity, we investigated whether harsh climatic conditions accumulated during the growing season influenced agonistic contests at feeding via vegetation-mediated effects, and their interaction with the site-specific habitat quality. We focused on females, which exhibit intra-group contest competition to access nutritious food patches. Accounting for confounding variables, we found that (1) the aggression rate between foraging individuals increased with the warming accumulated over previous weeks; (2) the probability to deliver more aggressive behaviour patterns toward contestants increased with decreasing rainfall recorded in previous weeks; (3) the effects of cumulative warming and drought on aggressivity indices occurred at time windows spanning 15-30 days, matching those found on vegetation productivity; (4) the effects of unfavourable climatic conditions via vegetation growth on aggressivity were independent of the site-specific habitat quality. Simulations conducted on our model species predict a ~50 % increase in aggression rate following the warming projected over the next 60 years. Where primary productivity will be impacted by warming and drought, our findings suggest that the anticipated climate change scenarios may trigger bottom-up consequences on intraspecific animal conflicts. This study opens the doors for a better understanding of the multifactorial origin of aggression in group-living foragers, emphasising how the escalation of agonistic contests could emerge as a novel response of animal societies to ongoing global warming.

Joint exposure to air pollution, ambient temperature and residential greenness and their association with metabolic syndrome (MetS): A large population-based study among Chinese adults

Previous studies assessing adverse health have traditionally focused on a single environmental exposure, failing to reflect the reality of various exposures present simultaneously. Air pollution, ambient temperature and greenness have been proposed as critical environmental factors associated with metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, evidence exploring their joint relationships with MetS is needed for identifying interactive factors and developing more targeted public health interventions. The baseline data was obtained from China Multi-Ethnic Cohort (CMEC). Environmental data of air pollutants (PM_2.5, O₃) and NDVI for greenness was calculated from satellites data. Ambient temperature data were obtained from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). MetS was classified based on National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) using anthropometric measures and biomarkers. Logistic regression models were utilized to examine the combined relationship of MetS with three-year exposure to air pollutants, temperature and NDVI. Relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) was calculated to evaluate interaction on an additive scale. We found associations between prevalent MetS and interquartile range (IQR) increases in PM_2.5 (OR: 1.38; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.23, 1.55) and O₃ (OR: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.22). Additive and multiplicative interactions were observed between air pollutants and temperature exposure. Compared to low-temperature level, the relationship between PM_2.5 and MetS attenuated (RERI: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.44, -0.04) at high-temperature level, while the relationship between O₃ and MetS enhanced (RERI: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.11). At low NDVI 250 m, the association between PM_2.5 and MetS was stronger (RERI: 0.13, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.19) with high NDVI 250 m as the reference group. Our findings showed that ambient temperature and residential greenness could affect the relationship between air pollutants and MetS.

Adverse associations of long-term exposure to ambient ozone with molecular biomarkers of aging alleviated by residential greenness in rural Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

Both ambient ozone exposure and residential greenness are linked to the aging process. However, their interactive effect on molecular biomarkers of aging (telomere length (TL) and mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNA-CN)) remains unclear.

METHODS

This study was conducted among 6418 rural Chinese adults. The concentration of ambient ozone was assessed using a random forest model. Residential greenness was represented by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Molecular biomarkers of aging (relative TL and relative mtDNA-CN) were determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Generalized linear regression models were applied to investigate the independent and combined effects of ambient ozone and residential greenness on relative TL and relative mtDNA-CN.

RESULTS

The estimated percent changes and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) of relative TL in response to per-unit increase in ambient ozone were -22.43 % (-23.74 %, -21.18 %), -14.19 % (-15.63 %, -12.72 %) and -4.50 % (-6.57 %, -2.27 %) for participants with low (NDVI ≤ 0.53), moderate (0.54-0.55) and high (≥0.56) residential greenness exposure, respectively, while the corresponding figures of relative mtDNA-CN were -12.63 % (-13.84 %, -11.31 %), -9.52 % (-10.60 %, -8.33 %) and 2.12 % (0.20 %, 4.19 %). Furthermore, negative interactive effects between ambient ozone and residential greenness exposure on molecular biomarkers of aging were observed (P_{for interaction} < 0.001 for relative TL, and 0.098 for relative mtDNA-CN).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to high concentrations of ambient ozone and low residential greenness was associated with decreased mtDNA-CN and shortened TL. The adverse effect of ambient ozone exposure on molecular biomarkers of aging may be attenuated by increased residential greenness.

Quantifying Fundamental Vegetation Traits over Europe Using the Sentinel-3 OLCI Catalogue in Google Earth Engine

Thanks to the emergence of cloud-computing platforms and the ability of machine learning methods to solve prediction problems efficiently, this work presents a workflow to automate spatiotemporal mapping of essential vegetation traits from Sentinel-3 (S3) imagery. The traits included leaf chlorophyll content (LCC), leaf area index (LAI), fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), and fractional vegetation cover (FVC), being fundamental for assessing photosynthetic activity on Earth. The workflow involved Gaussian process regression (GPR) algorithms trained on top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance simulations generated by the coupled canopy radiative transfer model (RTM) SCOPE and the atmospheric RTM 6SV. The retrieval models, named to S3-TOA-GPR-1.0, were directly implemented in Google Earth Engine (GEE) to enable the quantification of the traits from TOA data as acquired from the S3 Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) sensor.Following good to high theoretical validation results with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) ranging from 5% (FAPAR) to 19% (LAI), a three fold evaluation approach over diverse sites and land cover types was pursued: (1) temporal comparison against LAI and FAPAR products obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the time window 2016-2020, (2) spatial difference mapping with Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) estimates, and (3) direct validation using interpolated in situ data from the VALERI network. For all three approaches, promising results were achieved. Selected sites demonstrated coherent seasonal patterns compared to LAI and FAPAR MODIS products, with differences between spatially averaged temporal patterns of only 6.59%. In respect of the spatial mapping comparison, estimates provided by the S3-TOA-GPR-1.0 models indicated highest consistency with FVC and FAPAR CGLS products. Moreover, the direct validation of our S3-TOA-GPR-1.0 models against VALERI estimates indicated with regard to jurisdictional claims in good retrieval performance for LAI, FAPAR and FVC. We conclude that our retrieval workflow of spatiotemporal S3 TOA data processing into GEE opens the path towards global monitoring of fundamental vegetation traits, accessible to the whole research community.

Assessment of Drought Indexes on Different Time Scales: A Case in Semiarid Mediterranean Grasslands

Drought is a significant challenge to semiarid Mediterranean grasslands, Increasing the accuracy of monitoring allows improving the conservation and management of these vital ecosystems. Meteorological drought is commonly monitored by the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) or the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). On the other hand, agriculture drought is estimated by the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). This work aims to optimise the correlation between both drought types using the best transformation of VHI and the most appropriate time scale. Two drought-vulnerable Mediterranean grasslands were selected to evaluate the performance of the drought indexes. The SPI and the SPEI were calculated using data obtained from nearby weather stations. MODIS data were used to calculate the VHI. This index was standardised, naming it as SVHI. Our results revealed that SPEI was better correlated with VHI compared to SPI. In addition, SVHI obtained better results in the critical vegetation phases than VHI. Overall, SPEI and SVHI were the best correlated indexes. The quarterly scale showed stronger relationships than the monthly scale and the most correlated time frame were Mediterranean spring and autumn. This fact suggests that SPEI and SVHI could provide a plus point for increasing the precision of vegetation monitoring during these periods.

Associations of residing greenness and long-term exposure to air pollution with glucose homeostasis markers

BACKGROUND

Although long-term exposure to higher air pollutants and lower residing greenness related to disorders of glucose homeostasis have been reported, their interaction effects on glucose homeostasis in developing countries remained unclear.

METHODS

A total of 35, 482 participants were obtained from the Henan Rural Cohort (n = 39, 259). Exposure to air pollutants (PM₁, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and NO₂) were predicted by using a spatiotemporal model-based on satellites data. Residing greenness was reflected by Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) which were derived from satellites data. Independent associations of single or mixture of air pollutant or residing greenness with glucose homeostasis markers were analyzed by quantile regression models and quantile g (qg)-computation method, respectively. Furthermore, interaction effects of residing greenness and air pollution on glucose homeostasis markers were analyzed by generalized additive models.

RESULTS

Positive associations of single or mixture of air pollutants (PM₁, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ or NO₂) with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) were observed, while negative associations of single or mixture of air pollutants with insulin or HOMA-β were observed. Residing greenness was negatively associated with FPG but positively related to insulin or HOMA-β. Quantile regression revealed the heterogeneity were observed in the associations the residing greenness or air pollutants with glucose homeostasis markers (insulin or HOMA-β) across deciles of the glucose homeostasis markers distributions. Furthermore, joint associations of single air pollutant and residing greenness on glucose homeostasis markers were found.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicated that exposure to air pollution had negative effect on glucose homeostasis markers and these effects may be modified by living in higher green space. These findings suggest that increased residing greenness and air pollution control may have joint effect on decreased the risk of diabetes.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

The Henan Rural Cohort study has been registered at Chinese Clinical Trial Register (Registration number: ChiCTR-OOC-15006699, http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=11375).

Residential greenness associated with lower serum uric acid levels and hyperuricemia prevalence in a large Chinese rural population

BACKGROUND

The association between residential greenness and hyperuricemia remains unclear, especially in developing countries. The current study aimed to explore the associations between residential greenness and both serum uric acid (SUA) levels and hyperuricemia in a Chinese rural population and to examine potential pathways of these associations.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, 38,721 rural residents were recruited from the baseline survey of the Henan Rural Cohort study in 2015-2017. Two satellite-derived vegetation indices, i.e., the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), were used to estimate residential greenness. Air pollution was determined by two proxies: particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). Hyperuricemia was defined as SUA levels of >417 μmol/L and > 357 μmol/L for men and women, respectively. Multivariable-adjusted linear regression and logistic regression models were applied to investigate the associations of greenness with SUA and hyperuricemia, and mediation analyses were used to explore possible mechanisms underlying the associations.

RESULTS

An interquartile range (IQR) increase in both EVI and NDVI in the 500 m buffer was significantly associated with reductions in SUA levels of -7.23 μmol/L (95% confidence interval (CI): -8.96, -5.50) and -4.38 μmol/L (95% CI: -5.93, -2.83), respectively. The same increases in EVI_500-m and NDVI_500-m were associated with 13.8% (95% CI: 5.8%, 21.2%) and 13.0% (95% CI: 5.6%, 19.8%) lower hyperuricemia prevalence, respectively. These associations were stronger in older people (age ≥ 65), men or participants with higher averaged monthly income. The associations were partly mediated by physical activity and BMI, while no mediation effect was observed for air pollution.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher levels of residential greenness were significantly associated with lower SUA levels and hyperuricemia prevalence in the Chinese rural population. BMI and physical activity may play important mediating roles in the associations.

Effect of Ecological Construction Engineering on Vegetation Restoration: A Case Study of the Loess Plateau

Since the 1980s, with rapid economic development and increased attention given to ecological protection, China has launched a series of ecological-restoration programs to restore the local environment through afforestation and natural forest protection. The evaluation of vegetation restoration is an important part of evaluating the effectiveness of ecological restoration. The Loess Plateau is an area where ecological problems are concentrated, and it is a key area of ecological construction in China. This paper takes the Loess Plateau as the research area, using remote sensing and geographic information technology combined with ecosystem structural changes and an improved residual model to study vegetation restoration. The following main conclusions were drawn: (1) From 1990 to 2000, the farmland area increased by 3084.81 km2, resulting in the encroachment of a large area of grassland and shrubland. (2) With the implementation of ecological engineering, the area of returning farmland to forest and grassland reached 18,001.88 km2; in this period, the NDVI of vegetation increased rapidly, and the area that increased comprised 91.90% of the total area, of which the area of significant increase reached 65.78%. The quality of vegetation was restored to a great extent, and ecological engineering played a major role in this stage. (3) Under the background of large-scale implementation of ecological restoration, the urban area of the Loess Plateau continues to expand.

Correction of Directional Effects in VEGETATION NDVI Time-Series

Land surface reflectance measurements from the VEGETATION program (SPOT-4, SPOT-5 and PROBA-V satellites) have led to the acquisition of consistent time-series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at a global scale. The wide imaging swath (>2000 km) of the family of VEGETATION space-borne sensors ensures a daily coverage of the Earth at the expense of a varying observation and illumination geometries between successive orbit overpasses for a given target located on the ground. Such angular variations infer saw-like patterns on time-series of reflectance and NDVI. The presence of directional effects is not a real issue provided that they can be properly removed, which supposes an appropriate BRDF (Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function) sampling as offered by the VEGETATION program. An anisotropy correction supports a better analysis of the temporal shapes and spatial patterns of land surface reflectance values and vegetation indices such as NDVI. Herein we describe a BRDF correction methodology, for the purpose of the Copernicus Global Land Service framework, which includes notably an adaptive data accumulation window and provides uncertainties associated with the NDVI computed with normalized reflectance. Assessing the general performance of the methodology in comparing time-series between normalized and directional NDVI reveals a significant removal of the high-frequency noise due to directional effects. The proposed methodology is computationally efficient to operate at a global scale to deliver a BRDF-corrected NDVI product based on long-term Time-Series of VEGETATION sensor and its follow-on with the Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellite constellation.

Outlier Detection at the Parcel-Level in Wheat and Rapeseed Crops Using Multispectral and SAR Time Series

This paper studies the detection of anomalous crop development at the parcel-level based on an unsupervised outlier detection technique. The experimental validation is conducted on rapeseed and wheat parcels located in Beauce (France). The proposed methodology consists of four sequential steps: (1) preprocessing of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and multispectral images acquired using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites, (2) extraction of SAR and multispectral pixel-level features, (3) computation of parcel-level features using zonal statistics and (4) outlier detection. The different types of anomalies that can affect the studied crops are analyzed and described. The different factors that can influence the outlier detection results are investigated with a particular attention devoted to the synergy between Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data. Overall, the best performance is obtained when using jointly a selection of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 features with the isolation forest algorithm. The selected features are co-polarized (VV) and cross-polarized (VH) backscattering coefficients for Sentinel-1 and five Vegetation Indexes for Sentinel-2 (among us, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and two variants of the Normalized Difference Water). When using these features with an outlier ratio of 10%, the percentage of detected true positives (i.e., crop anomalies) is equal to 94.1% for rapeseed parcels and 95.5% for wheat parcels.

Residential Green and Blue Spaces and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Population-Based Health Study in China

Evidence on the health benefits of green space in residential environments is still limited, and few studies have investigated the potential association between blue space and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence. This study included 39,019 participants who had completed the baseline survey from the Henan Rural Cohort Study, 2015-2017. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were employed to characterize the residential green space, and the distance from the participant's residential address to the nearest water body was considered to represent the residential blue space. Mixed effect models were applied to evaluate the associations of the residential environment with T2DM and fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in NDVI and EVI was significantly associated with a 13.4% (odds ratio (OR): 0.866, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 0.830,0.903) and 14.2% (OR: 0.858, 95% CI: 0.817,0.901) decreased risk of T2DM, respectively. The residential green space was associated with lower fasting blood glucose levels in men (%change, -2.060 in men vs. -0.972 in women) and the elderly (%change, -1.696 in elderly vs. -1.268 in young people). Additionally, people who lived more than 5 km from the water body had a 15.7% lower risk of T2DM (OR: 0.843, 95% CI: 0.770,0.923) and 1.829% lower fasting blood glucose levels (95% CI: -2.335%,-1.320%) than those who lived closer to the blue space. Our findings suggest that residential green space was beneficially associated with T2DM and fasting blood glucose levels. However, further research is needed to explore more comprehensively the relationship between residential blue space and public health.

Reanalysis datasets outperform other gridded climate products in vegetation change analysis in peripheral conservation areas of Central Asia

Global environmental research requires long-term climate data. Yet, meteorological infrastructure is missing in the vast majority of the world’s protected areas. Therefore, gridded products are frequently used as the only available climate data source in peripheral regions. However, associated evaluations are commonly biased towards well observed areas and consequently, station-based datasets. As evaluations on vegetation monitoring abilities are lacking for regions with poor data availability, we analyzed the potential of several state-of-the-art climate datasets (CHIRPS, CRU, ERA5-Land, GPCC-Monitoring-Product, IMERG-GPM, MERRA-2, MODIS-MOD10A1) for assessing NDVI anomalies (MODIS-MOD13Q1) in two particularly suitable remote conservation areas. We calculated anomalies of 156 climate variables and seasonal periods during 2001–2018, correlated these with vegetation anomalies while taking the multiple comparison problem into consideration, and computed their spatial performance to derive suitable parameters. Our results showed that four datasets (MERRA-2, ERA5-Land, MOD10A1, CRU) were suitable for vegetation analysis in both regions, by showing significant correlations controlled at a false discovery rate < 5% and in more than half of the analyzed areas. Cross-validated variable selection and importance assessment based on the Boruta algorithm indicated high importance of the reanalysis datasets ERA5-Land and MERRA-2 in both areas but higher differences and variability between the regions with all other products. CHIRPS, GPCC and the bias-corrected version of MERRA-2 were unsuitable and not important in both regions. We provide evidence that reanalysis datasets are most suitable for spatiotemporally consistent environmental analysis whereas gauge- or satellite-based products and their combinations are highly variable and may not be applicable in peripheral areas.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Drought Events and Their Effects on Vegetation: A Case Study in Southern Tibet, China

Frequent droughts in a warming climate tend to induce the degeneration of vegetation. Quantifying the response of vegetation to variations in drought events is therefore crucial for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems. In this study, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated using the precipitation data sourced from the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD), and then the drought events in southern Tibet from 1982 to 2015 were identified based on the SPI index. The results showed that the frequency, severity, and intensity of drought events in southern Tibet decreased from 1982 to 2015, and the highest frequency of drought was found between 1993 and 2000. To evaluate the impact of drought events on vegetation, the vegetation characteristic indexes were developed based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the drought characteristics. The assessment of two drought events showed that the alpine grasslands and alpine meadows had high vegetation vulnerability (AI). The assessment of multiple drought events showed that responses of vegetation to drought were spatially heterogeneous, and the total explain rate of environmental factors to the variations in AI accounted for 40%. Among the many environmental factors investigated, the AI were higher at middle altitudes (2000–3000 m) than low altitudes (<2000 m) and high altitudes (3000–4500 m). Meanwhile, the silt soil fraction in the upper soil layer (0–30 cm) had the greatest positive correlation with AI, suggesting that areas with a high silt soil fraction were more sensitive to drought. The relative contribution rates of environmental factors were predicted by a multivariate linear regression (MLR) model. The silt soil fraction was found to make the greatest relative contribution (23.3%) to the changes in AI.

Nocturnal Surface Urban Heat Island over Greater Cairo: Spatial Morphology, Temporal Trends and Links to Land-Atmosphere Influences

This study assesses the spatial and temporal characteristics of nighttime surface urban heat island (SUHI) effects over Greater Cairo: the largest metropolitan area in Africa. This study employed nighttime land surface temperature (LST) data at 1 km resolution from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua sensor for the period 2003–2019. We presented a new spatial anomaly algorithm, which allowed to define SUHI using the most anomalous hotspot and cold spot of LST for each time step over Greater Cairo between 2003 and 2019. Results demonstrate that although there is a significant increase in the spatial extent of SUHI over the past two decades, a significant decrease in the mean and maximum intensities of SUHI was noted. Moreover, we examined the dependency between SUHI characteristics and related factors that influence energy and heat fluxes between atmosphere and land in urban environments (e.g., surface albedo, vegetation cover, climate variability, and land cover/use changes). Results demonstrate that the decrease in the intensity of SUHI was mainly guided by a stronger warming in daytime and nighttime LST in the neighborhood of urban localities. This warming was accompanied by a decrease in surface albedo and diurnal temperature range (DTR) over these areas. Results of this study can provide guidance to local urban planners and decision-makers to adopt more effective mitigation strategies to diminish the negative impacts of urban warming on natural and human environments.

Assessment of a Spatially and Temporally Consistent MODIS Derived NDVI Product for Application in Index-Based Drought Insurance

In arid and semi-arid regions of Eastern and Southern Africa, drought can be devastating to pastoralists who depend on healthy vegetation for their herds. The Kenya Livestock Insurance Program (KLIP) addresses this challenge through its insurance program that relies on a vegetation index product derived from eMODIS NDVI (enhanced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Insurance payouts are triggered when index values fall below a certain threshold for a Unit Area of Insurance (UAI). The objective of this study is to produce an updated, cloud-based NDVI product, potentially allowing for earlier payouts that may help herders to prevent, minimize, or offset drought-induced losses. The new product, named reNDVI (rapid enhanced NDVI), provides an updated cloud filtering algorithm and brings the entire processing chain to the cloud. Access to the scripts used for the processing described and resulting data is openly available. To test the performance of the new product, we provide a robust evaluation of reNDVI and eMODIS NDVI and their derived payout indices against historical drought, payouts provided, and mortality data. The implications of potential payout differences are also discussed. The products show good comparability; the monthly average NDVI per UAI has correlation values over 0.95 and MAPD under 5% for most UAIs. However, there are moderate differences when assessing year-to-year payout amounts triggered. Because the payouts are currently calculated based on the 20th and first percentile of index values from 2003–2016, payouts are very sensitive to even small changes in NDVI. Where livestock mortality was available, payouts for reNDVI and eMODIS had similar correlations (r = 0.453 and r = 0.478, respectively) with mortality rates. Therefore, with the potential reduced latency and updated cloud filtering, the reNDVI product could be a suitable replacement for eMODIS in the Kenya Livestock Insurance Program. The updated reNDVI product shows promise as a vegetation index that could address a pressing drought insurance challenge.

Identifying Precipitation and Reference Evapotranspiration Trends in West Africa to Support Drought Insurance

West Africa represents a wide gradient of climates, extending from tropical conditions along the Guinea Coast to the dry deserts of the south Sahara, and it has some of the lowest income, most vulnerable populations on the planet, which increases catastrophic impacts of low and high frequency climate variability. This paper investigates low and high frequency climate variability in West African monthly and seasonal precipitation and reference evapotranspiration from the early 1980s to 2016. We examine the impact of those trends and how they interact with payouts from index insurance products. Understanding low and high frequency variability in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration at these scales can provide insight into trends during periods critical to agricultural performance across the region. For index insurance, it is important to identify low-frequency variability, which can result in radical departures between designed/planned and actual insurance payouts, especially in the later part of a 30-year period, a common climate analysis period. We find that evaporative demand and precipitation are not perfect substitutes for monitoring crop deficits and that there may be space to use both for index insurance design. We also show that low yields—aligned with the need for insurance payouts—can be predicted using classification trees that include both precipitation and reference evapotranspiration.

Short-Term Spatio-Temporal Drought Forecasting Using Random Forests Model at New South Wales, Australia

Droughts can cause significant damage to agriculture and water resources, leading to severe economic losses and loss of life. One of the most important aspect is to develop effective tools to forecast drought events that could be helpful in mitigation strategies. The understanding of droughts has become more challenging because of the effect of climate change, urbanization and water management; therefore, the present study aims to forecast droughts by determining an appropriate index and analyzing its changes, using climate variables. The work was conducted in three different phases, first being the determination of Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), using global climatic dataset of Climate Research Unit (CRU) from 1901–2018. The indices are calculated at different monthly intervals which could depict short-term or long-term changes, and the index value represents different drought classes, ranging from extremely dry to extremely wet. However, the present study was focused only on forecasting at short-term scales for New South Wales (NSW) region of Australia and was conducted at two different time scales, one month and three months. The second phase involved dividing the data into three sample sizes, training (1901–2010), testing (2011–2015) and validation (2016–2018). Finally, a machine learning approach, Random Forest (RF), was used to train and test the data, using various climatic variables, e.g., rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, cloud cover, vapor pressure and temperature (maximum, minimum and mean). The final phase was to analyze the performance of the model based on statistical metrics and drought classes. Regarding this, the performance of the testing period was conducted by using statistical metrics, Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) method. The performance of the model showed a considerably higher value of R2 for both the time scales. However, statistical metrics analyzes the variation between the predicted and observed index values, and it does not consider the drought classes. Therefore, the variation in predicted and observed SPEI values were analyzed based on different drought classes, which were validated by using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)-based Area under the Curve (AUC) approach. The results reveal that the classification of drought classes during the validation period had an AUC of 0.82 for SPEI 1 case and 0.84 for SPEI 3 case. The study depicts that the Random Forest model can perform both regression and classification analysis for drought studies in NSW. The work also suggests that the performance of any model for drought forecasting should not be limited only through statistical metrics, but also by examining the variation in terms of drought characteristics.

Spatial–Temporal Wetland Landcover Changes of Poyang Lake Derived from Landsat and HJ-1A/B Data in the Dry Season from 1973–2019

As China’s largest freshwater lake and an important wintering ground for white cranes in Asia, the Poyang Lake wetland has unique ecological value. However, wetland cover types have changed dynamically and have attracted the attention of society and researchers over the past few decades. To obtain detailed knowledge and understanding of the long-term landcover dynamics of Poyang Lake and the associated driving forces, Landsat and HJ-1A/B images (31 images) were used to acquire classification and frequency maps of Poyang Lake in the dry season from 1973–2019 based on the random forest (RF) algorithm. In addition, the driving forces were discussed according to the Geodetector model. The results showed that the coverage of water and mudflat showed opposite trends from 1987–2019. Water and vegetation exhibited a significant decreasing trend from 1981–2003 and from 1996–2004 (p < 0.01), respectively. A phenomenon of vegetation expanding from west to east was found, and the expansion areas were mainly concentrated in the central zone of Poyang Lake, while vegetation in the northern mountainous area of Songmen (region 1) and eastern Songmen Mountain (region 2), showed a significantly expanded trend (R2 > 0.6, p < 0.01) during the five-decade period. The year-long dominant distribution of water occurred mainly in the two deltas formed by the Raohe and Tongjin rivers and the Fuhe and Xinjiang rivers, with deep water. In the 1973–2003 and 2003–2019 periods, a total of 313.522 km2 of water turned into swamp and mudflat and 478.453 km2 of swamp and mudflat transitioned into vegetation, respectively. Elevation and temperature appeared to be the main factors affecting the regional wetland evolution in the dry season and should be considered in the management of Poyang Lake. The findings of this work provide detailed information for spatial–temporal landcover changes of Poyang Lake, which could help policymakers to formulate scientific and appropriate policies and achieve restoration of the Poyang Lake wetland.

Comprehensive Grassland Degradation Monitoring by Remote Sensing in Xilinhot, Inner Mongolia, China

Grassland degradation is a complex process and cannot be thoroughly measured by a single indicator, such as fractional vegetation cover (FVC), aboveground biomass (AGB), or net primary production (NPP), or by a simple combination of these indicators. In this research, we combined measured data with vegetation and soil characteristics to establish a set of standards applicable to the monitoring of regional grassland degradation by remote sensing. We selected indicators and set their thresholds with full consideration given to vegetation structure and function. We optimized the indicator simulation, based on which grassland degradation in the study area during 2014–2018 was comprehensively evaluated. We used the feeding intensity of herbivores to represent the grazing intensity. We analyzed the effects of climate and grazing activities on grassland degradation using the constraint line method. The results showed degradation in approximately 69% of the grassland in the study area and an overall continued recovery of the degraded grassland from 2014 to 2018. We did not identify any significant correlation between temperature and grassland degradation. The increase in precipitation promoted the recovery of degraded grassland, whereas increased grazing may have aggravated degradation. Our findings can not only improve the scientific quality and accuracy of grassland degradation monitoring by remote sensing but also provide clear spatial information and decision-making help in sustainable management of grassland regions.

Detection of Anomalies in Large-Scale Cyberattacks Using Fuzzy Neural Networks

The fuzzy neural networks are hybrid structures that can act in several contexts of the pattern classification, including the detection of failures and anomalous behaviors. This paper discusses the use of an artificial intelligence model based on the association between fuzzy logic and training of artificial neural networks to recognize anomalies in transactions involved in the context of computer networks and cyberattacks. In addition to verifying the accuracy of the model, fuzzy rules were obtained through knowledge from the massive datasets to form expert systems. The acquired rules allow the creation of intelligent systems in high-level languages with a robust level of identification of anomalies in Internet transactions, and the accuracy of the results of the test confirms that the fuzzy neural networks can act in anomaly detection in high-security attacks in computer networks.

Model Ensembles of Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression for Improved Accuracy in the Prediction of Vegetation Conditions and Droughts in Four Northern Kenya Counties

For improved drought planning and response, there is an increasing need for highly predictive and stable drought prediction models. This paper presents the performance of both homogeneous and heterogeneous model ensembles in the satellite-based prediction of drought severity using artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR). For each of the homogeneous and heterogeneous model ensembles, the study investigates the performance of three model ensembling approaches: (1) non-weighted linear averaging, (2) ranked weighted averaging, and (3) model stacking using artificial neural networks. Using the approach of “over-produce then select”, the study used 17 years of satellite data on 16 selected variables for predictive drought monitoring to build 244 individual ANN and SVR models from which 111 models were automatically selected for the building of the model ensembles. Model stacking is shown to realize models that are superior in performance in the prediction of future drought conditions as compared to the linear averaging and weighted averaging approaches. The best performance from the heterogeneous stacked model ensembles recorded an R2 of 0.94 in the prediction of future (1 month ahead) vegetation conditions on unseen test data (2016–2017) as compared to an R2 of 0.83 and R2 of 0.78 for ANN and SVR, respectively, in the traditional approach of selection of the best (champion) model. We conclude that despite the computational resource intensiveness of the model ensembling approach, the returns in terms of model performance for drought prediction are worth the investment, especially in the context of the continued exponential increase in computational power and the potential benefits of improved forecasting for vulnerable populations.

A Mixed Model Approach to Vegetation Condition Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN): Case of Kenya’s Operational Drought Monitoring

Droughts, with their increasing frequency of occurrence, especially in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), continue to negatively affect lives and livelihoods. For example, the 2011 drought in East Africa caused massive losses, documented to have cost the Kenyan economy over 12 billion US dollars. Consequently, the demand is ever-increasing for ex-ante drought early warning systems with the ability to offer drought forecasts with sufficient lead times The study uses 10 precipitation and vegetation condition indices that are lagged over 1, 2 and 3-month time-steps to predict future values of vegetation condition index aggregated over a 3-month time period (VCI3M) that is a proxy variable for drought monitoring. The study used data covering the period 2001–2015 at a monthly frequency for four arid northern Kenya counties for model training, with data for 2016–2017 used as out-of-sample data for model testing. The study adopted a model space search approach to obtain the most predictive artificial neural network (ANN) model as opposed to the traditional greedy search approach that is based on optimal variable selection at each model building step. The initial large model-space was reduced using the general additive model (GAM) technique together with a set of assumptions. Even though we built a total of 102 GAM models, only 20 had R2 ≥ 0.7, and together with the model with lag of the predicted variable, were subjected to the ANN modelling process. The ANN process itself uses the brute-force approach that automatically partitions the training data into 10 sub-samples, builds the ANN models in these samples and evaluates their performance using multiple metrics. The results show the superiority of 1-month lag of the variables as compared to longer time lags of 2 and 3 months. The best ANN model recorded an R2 of 0.78 between actual and predicted vegetation conditions 1-month ahead using the out-of-sample data. Investigated as a classifier distinguishing five vegetation deficit classes, the best ANN model had a modest accuracy of 67% and a multi-class area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 89.99%.

An Improved GrabCut Method Based on a Visual Attention Model for Rare-Earth Ore Mining Area Recognition with High-Resolution Remote Sensing Images

An improved GrabCut method based on a visual attention model is proposed to extract rare-earth ore mining area information using high-resolution remote sensing images. The proposed method makes use of advantages of both the visual attention model and GrabCut method, and the visual attention model was referenced to generate a saliency map as the initial of the GrabCut method instead of manual initialization. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was designed as a bound term added into the Energy Function of GrabCut to further improve the accuracy of the segmentation result. The proposed approach was employed to extract rare-earth ore mining areas in Dingnan County and Xunwu County, China, using GF-1 (GaoFen No.1 satellite launched by China) and ALOS (Advanced Land Observation Satellite) high-resolution remotely-sensed satellite data, and experimental results showed that FPR (False Positive Rate) and FNR (False Negative Rate) were, respectively, lower than 12.5% and 6.5%, and PA (Pixel Accuracy), MPA (Mean Pixel Accuracy), MIoU (Mean Intersection over Union), and FWIoU (frequency weighted intersection over union) all reached up to 90% in four experiments. Comparison results with traditional classification methods (such as Object-oriented CART (Classification and Regression Tree) and Object-oriented SVM (Support Vector Machine)) indicated the proposed method performed better for object boundary identification. The proposed method could be useful for accurate and automatic information extraction for rare-earth ore mining areas.

Using 1st Derivative Reflectance Signatures within a Remote Sensing Framework to Identify Macroalgae in Marine Environments

Macroalgae blooms (MABs) are a global natural hazard that are likely to increase in occurrence with climate change and increased agricultural runoff. MABs can cause major issues for indigenous species, fish farms, nuclear power stations, and tourism activities. This project focuses on the impacts of MABs on the operations of a British nuclear power station. However, the outputs and findings are also of relevance to other coastal operators with similar problems. Through the provision of an early-warning detection system for MABs, it should be possible to minimize the damaging effects and possibly avoid them altogether. Current methods based on satellite imagery cannot be used to detect low-density mobile vegetation at various water depths. This work is the first step towards providing a system that can warn a coastal operator 6–8 h prior to a marine ingress event. A fundamental component of such a warning system is the spectral reflectance properties of the problematic macroalgae species. This is necessary to optimize the detection capability for the problematic macroalgae in the marine environment. We measured the reflectance signatures of eight species of macroalgae that we sampled in the vicinity of the power station. Only wavelengths below 900 nm (700 nm for similarity percentage (SIMPER)) were analyzed, building on current methodologies. We then derived 1st derivative spectra of these eight sampled species. A multifaceted univariate and multivariate approach was used to visualize the spectral reflectance, and an analysis of similarities (ANOSIM) provided a species-level discrimination rate of 85% for all possible pairwise comparisons. A SIMPER analysis was used to detect wavebands that consistently contributed to the simultaneous discrimination of all eight sampled macroalgae species to both a group level (535–570 nm), and to a species level (570–590 nm). Sampling locations were confirmed using a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), with the collected imagery being used to produce a single orthographic image via standard photogrammetric processes. The waveband found to contribute consistently to group-level discrimination has previously been found to be associated with photosynthetic pigmentation, whereas the species-level discriminatory waveband did not share this association. This suggests that the photosynthetic pigments were not spectrally diverse enough to successfully distinguish all eight species. We suggest that future work should investigate a Charge-Coupled Device (CCD)-based sensor using the wavebands highlighted above. This should facilitate the development of a regional-scale early-warning MAB detection system using UAVs, and help inform optimum sensor filter selection.