Can't afford a baby? Debt and young Americans

Evolving Fertility Goals and Behaviors in Current U.S. Childbearing Cohorts

In the post-Recession era, U.S. fertility rates have continued to fall. It is unclear if these declines are driven by shifts in fertility goals or growing difficulty in achieving goals. In this paper, we construct synthetic cohorts of men and women to examine both cross-cohort and within-cohort changes in fertility goals using multiple cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth. Although more recent cohorts exhibit lower achieved fertility at younger ages than earlier cohorts at the same age, intended parity remains around two children, and intentions to remain childless rarely exceed 15%. There is weak evidence of a growing fertility gap in the early 30s, suggesting more recent cohorts will need considerable childbearing in the 30s and early 40s to 'catch up' to earlier goals, yet low-parity women in their early 40s are decreasingly likely to have unfulfilled fertility desires or intentions to have children. Low-parity men in their early 40s, though, are increasingly likely to intend children. Declines in U.S. fertility thus seem to be largely driven not by changes in early-life fertility goals so much as either a decreasing likelihood of achieving earlier goals or, perhaps, shifts in the preferred timing of fertility that depress period measures.

Culture, Aging, Self-Continuity, and Life Satisfaction

The present work examines how culture and age interact to influence self-continuity and life satisfaction. Specifically, we compared Canadian and Chinese young (17-26 years old) and older adults (60-88 years old) in their sense of self-continuity and life satisfaction (N = 424). Consistent with past research, older adults reported greater self-continuity compared to their young counterparts, while cross-cultural comparisons showed that young Chinese reported greater self-continuity than young Canadians. In terms of life satisfaction, older adults again scored higher than younger adults, while cross-cultural comparisons indicated that, this time, young Canadians reported higher life satisfaction than young Chinese. Although the data were cross-sectional, indirect effects analyses showed that self-continuity mediated the effect of age on life satisfaction in both cultural groups, with the indirect effect stronger among Canadians than among Chinese. These findings highlight the importance of considering culture and age when examining psychological outcomes, and the potential of self-continuity as a mechanism to enhance overall life satisfaction.

Measures of Financial Hardship From Health Care Expenses Among Families With a Member With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in the US

Importance

Patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) face substantial financial burden from health care costs as assessed by many disparate measures. However, evaluation of the concordance of existing measures and the prevalence of financial burden based on these measures is lacking.

Objective

To compare subjectively reported and objectively measured financial burden from health care in families of patients with ASCVD.

Design Setting and Participants

This cross-sectional study used data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, a nationally representative survey of individuals and families in the US, and included all families with 1 or more members with ASCVD from 2014 to 2018. Analyses were conducted from October 2021 to April 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Using accepted definitions, objective financial hardship represented annual out-of-pocket medical expenses exceeding 20% of annual postsubsistence income, and subjective financial hardship represented self-reported problems paying medical bills or paying them over time. Prevalence of financial hardship was identified based on individual definitions and their concordance was assessed. Factors associated with each type of financial hardship were examined using risk-adjusted survey logistic regression. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model the odds of subjective financial hardship vs objective financial hardship across subgroups. The association between measures of financial hardship and self-reported deferral of care was also assessed.

Results

Among 10 975 families of patients with ASCVD, representing 22.5 million families nationally (mean [SD] age of index individual, 66 [24] years; estimated 54% men]), 37% experienced either objective or subjective financial hardship. This group included 11% (95% CI, 10%-11%) with objective financial hardship, 21% (95% CI, 20%-22%) with subjective financial hardship, and 5% (95% CI, 5%-6%) with both objective and subjective financial hardship. Mean age was 70 (95% CI, 68-71) years vs 61 (95% CI, 60-62) years for index patients in families reporting objective financial hardship only vs subjective financial hardship only, with no difference in sex (50% [95% CI, 46%-54%] of men vs 49% [95% CI, 47%-52%] of women). In risk-adjusted analyses, among families of patients with ASCVD, patient age of 65 years or older was associated with lower odds of subjective financial hardship than objective financial hardship (odds ratio [OR], 0.39; 95% CI, 0.20-0.76), whereas higher income (OR, 6.08; 95% CI, 3.93-9.42 for an income of >100%-200% of the federal poverty level [FPL] vs ≤100% of the FPL and OR, 20.46; 95% CI, 11.45-36.56 for >200% of FPL vs ≤100% of FPL), public insurance (OR, 6.60; 95% CI, 4.20-10.37), and being uninsured (OR, 5.36; 95% CI, 2.61-10.98) were associated with higher odds of subjective financial hardship than objective financial hardship. Subjective financial hardship alone was associated with significantly higher adjusted odds of self-reporting deferred or forgone care compared with objective financial hardship alone (OR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.79-4.06).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study of US adults, 2 in 5 families of patients with ASCVD experienced health care-related financial hardship, but a focus on objective or subjective measures alone would have captured only half the burden and not identified those deferring health care. The findings suggest that a comprehensive framework that evaluates both objective and subjective measures is essential to monitor financial consequences of health care.

United States Normative Attitudes for Pursuing Parenthood as a Function of Gender, Sexual Orientation, and Age

Decisions about whether or not to become a parent are significant parts of normative human development. Many studies have shown that married different-sex couples are expected to become parents, and that many social pressures enforce this norm. For same-sex couples, however, much less is known about social norms surrounding parenthood within marriage. This study examined injunctive norms and descriptive norms for the pursuit of parenthood as a function of age, gender, and sexual orientation. Participants in an internet survey included 1020 (522 heterosexual, 498 lesbian/gay) cisgender people from across the United States Findings showed that norms, especially descriptive norms, for the pursuit of parenthood for heterosexual people were much stronger than those for lesbian women and gay men, and that norms for lesbian women were stronger than those for gay men. These differences were more pronounced for older, heterosexual, and male participants. However, lesbian and gay participants, especially gay men, reported that lesbian and gay people ought to become parents to the same extent as heterosexual people. Overall, the results indicated that, regardless of sexual orientation, adults report that lesbian and gay married people ought to become parents, but that they expect only a minority of these couples will pursue parenthood. This research provided a glimpse into how Americans are envisioning family formation among same-sex couples today.

Financial Stress, Race, and Student Debt during the Great Recession

As the onus of paying for higher education shifted from the state onto students and their families, student indebtedness grew across a wide range of households in the United States in the 2000s, especially among Black and Hispanic households. Holding student debt is a financial risk that may leave households more vulnerable to economic shocks. We study the relationship between household student loan burden and the likelihood of financial stress during the Great Recession using the unique 2007-2009 panel of the Survey of Consumer Finances. We find a robust positive relationship across four dimensions of student loan burden and holding constant household characteristics and previous financial stress. We find that Black and Hispanic households who held student loans experienced particularly high levels of financial stress relative to White households. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the household risk incurred in the US system of financed attainment, especially during the inevitable downturns of a capitalist economy.

Rising nonmarital first childbearing among college-educated women: Evidence from three national studies

Levels of nonmarital first childbearing are assessed using recent administrations of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 Cohort; the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health; and the National Survey of Family Growth. Results confirm that the higher a woman's educational attainment, the less likely she is to be unmarried at the time of her first birth. A comparison over time shows increases in nonmarital first childbearing at every educational level, with the largest percentage increase occurring among women with college degrees at the BA or BS level or higher. This article projects that 18 to 27% of college-educated women now in their thirties who have a first birth will be unmarried at the time. In addition, among all women who are unmarried at first birth, women with college degrees are more likely to be married at the time of their second birth, and, in a majority of cases, the other parent of the two children was the same person. A growing proportion of well-educated women, and their partners, may therefore be pursuing a family formation strategy that proceeds directly to a first birth, and then proceeds, at a later point, to marriage, followed by a second birth. Possible reasons for the increase in nonmarital first births among the college-educated include the stagnation of the college wage premium; the rise in student debt; decreasing selectivity; and the growing acceptability of childbearing within cohabiting unions, which have become a common setting for nonmarital childbearing, and among single parents.

Trajectories of Unsecured Debt across the Life Course and Mental Health at Midlife

In this paper, we contribute to a growing literature on debt and mental health and ask whether patterns of unsecured debt accumulation and repayment over two decades are associated with depressive symptoms at age 50. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979 Cohort and group trajectory models, we have three key findings. First, we find substantial heterogeneity in debt trajectories across the life course. Second, respondents who report consistently high debt levels across the life course or who cycle in and out of high debt report significantly more depressive symptoms than respondents who hold consistently low levels of debt. These findings hold for both absolute and relative (debt-to-income) debt. Third, we find that the association between debt and depressive symptoms is strongest among respondents with less than a college degree, but we find less evidence for heterogeneity by race in this cohort.

Pathways to Parenthood in Social and Family Context: Decade in Review, 2020

OBJECTIVE

This article reviews research from the past decade on patterns, trends, and differentials in the pathway to parenthood.

BACKGROUND

Whether, and under what circumstances, people become parents has implications for individual identity, family relationships, the well-being of adults and children, and population growth and age structure. Understanding the factors that influence pathways to parenthood is central to the study of families and can inform policies aimed at changing childbearing behaviors.

METHOD

This review summarizes recent trends in fertility as well as research on the predictors and correlates of childbearing, with a focus on the United States and on research most relevant to family scholars. We document fertility differentials and prevailing explanations for variation across sub-groups and discuss alternative pathways to parenthood, such as adoption. The article suggests avenues for future research, outlines emerging theoretical developments, and concludes with a discussion of fertility policy.

RESULTS

U.S. fertility has declined in recent years; whether fertility rates will increase is unclear. Elements of the broader social context such as the Great Recession and increasing economic inequality have impacted pathways to parenthood, and there is growing divergence in behaviors across social class. Scholars of childbearing have developed theories to better understand how childbearing is shaped by life course processes and social context.

CONCLUSION

Future research on the pathways to parenthood should continue to study group differentials, refine measurement and theories, and better integrate men and couples. Childbearing research is relevant for social policy, but ideological factors impact the application of research to policy.

Sexual minority women's attitudes toward infants, children, and parenthood

Little is known about the experiences of lesbian and bisexual women with infants or children or about their views on trade-offs required by parenthood. In this study, we examined how reactions to experiences with infants/children, perceived trade-offs of parenthood, and self-reported nurturance vary as a function of women's sexual orientation. Two hundred cisgender childless women (53 lesbian, 57 plurisexual, 90 heterosexual) from the United States, recruited via social media, participated in this study. Results showed that lesbian women reported more negative attitudes toward infants/children and parenthood than did heterosexual women. Self-reported nurturance did not differ as a function of sexual orientation. Overall, lesbian women reported that they had less favorable experiences with infants and/or children and that they anticipated more social and economic costs involved with parenthood than did heterosexual women. Lesbian women also reported lower aspirations for parenthood than heterosexual women, and this was largely accounted for by differences in perceptions of the trade-offs involved with parenthood. Plurisexual women did not differ from lesbian or heterosexual women on any outcome. These results contribute to our understanding of why lesbian women are, on average, less likely than heterosexual women to aspire to parenthood.

Men's Income Trajectories and Physical and Mental Health at Midlife

Using time-varying, prospectively measured income in a nationally representative sample of Baby-Boomer men (the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth - 1979 [NLSY79]), we identify eight group-based trajectories of income between ages 25-49 and use multinomial treatment models to describe the associations between group-based income trajectories and mental and physical health at midlife. We find remarkable rigidity in income trajectories: less than 25% of our sample experiences significant upward or downward mobility between the ages of 25 to 49 and most who move remain or move into poverty. Men's physical and mental health at age fifty is strongly associated with their income trajectories, and some upwardly mobile men achieve the same physical and mental health as the highest earning men after adjusting for selection. The worse physical and mental health of men on other income trajectories is largely attributable to their early life disadvantages, health behaviors, and cumulative work experiences.

Racial and Ethnic Variation in the Relationship Between Student Loan Debt and the Transition to First Birth

The present study employs discrete-time hazard regression models to investigate the relationship between student loan debt and the probability of transitioning to either marital or nonmarital first childbirth using the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97). Accounting for nonrandom selection into student loans using propensity scores, our study reveals that the effect of student loan debt on the transition to motherhood differs among white, black, and Hispanic women. Hispanic women holding student loans experience significant declines in the probability of transitioning to both marital and nonmarital motherhood, whereas black women with student loans are significantly more likely to transition to any first childbirth. Indebted white women experience only a decrease in the probability of a marital first birth. The results from this study suggest that student loans will likely play a key role in shaping future demographic patterns and behaviors.

WEALTH INEQUALITY AND ACCUMULATION

Research on wealth inequality and accumulation and the data upon which it relies have expanded substantially in the twenty-first century. While the field has experienced rapid growth, conceptual and methodological challenges remain. We begin by discussing two major unresolved methodological concerns facing wealth research: how to address challenges to causal inference posed by wealth's cumulative nature and how to operationalize net worth, given its highly skewed nature. To underscore the need for continued empirical attention to net worth, we review trends in wealth levels and inequality and evaluate wealth's distinctiveness as an indicator of social stratification. Next, we provide an overview of data sources available for wealth research. We then review recent empirical evidence on the effects of wealth on other social outcomes, as well as research on the determinants of wealth. We close with a list of promising avenues for future research on wealth, its causes, and its consequences.

Into the Red and Back to the Nest? Student Debt, College Completion, and Returning to the Parental Home among Young Adults

Rising student debt has sparked concerns about its impact on the transition to adulthood. In this paper, we examine the claim that student debt is leading to a rise in "boomeranging", or returning home, using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort and discrete time event history models. We have four findings. First, student loan debt is not associated with boomeranging in the complete sample. However, we find that the association differs by race, such that the link between student debt and returning home is stronger for black than white youth. Third, degree completion is a strong predictor of returning home, whereby those who fail to attain a degree have an increased risk of boomeranging. Fourth, young adult role transitions and socioeconomic well-being are associated with boomeranging. Findings suggest that rising debt has created new risks, and may reproduce social inequalities in the transition to adulthood.

Young, Black, and (Still) in the Red: Parental Wealth, Race, and Student Loan Debt

Taking out student loans to assist with the costs of postsecondary schooling in the US has become the norm in recent decades. The debt burden young adults acquire during the higher education process, however, is increasingly stratified with black young adults holding greater debt burden than whites. Using data from the NLSY 1997 cohort, we examine racial differences in student loan debt acquisition and parental net wealth as a predictor contributing to this growing divide. We have four main results. First, confirming prior research, black young adults have substantially more debt than their white counterparts. Second, we find that this difference is partially explained by differences in wealth, family background, postsecondary educational differences, and family contributions to college. Third, young adults' net worth explain a portion of the black-white disparity in debt, suggesting that both differences in accumulation of debt and ability to repay debt in young adulthood explain racial disparities in debt. Fourth, the black-white disparity in debt is greatest at the highest levels of parents' net worth. Our findings show that while social and economic experiences can help explain racial disparities in debt, the situation is more precarious for black youth, who are not protected by their parents' wealth. This suggests that the increasing costs of higher education and corresponding rise in student loan debt are creating a new form of stratification for recent cohorts of young adults, and that student loan debt may be a new mechanism by which racial economic disparities are inherited across generations.