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Lewis RA, Kashongwe OB, Bebe BO. Quantifying production losses associated with foot and mouth disease outbreaks on large-scale dairy farms in Rift valley, Kenya. Trop Anim Health Prod 2023; 55:293. [PMID: 37608201 DOI: 10.1007/s11250-023-03707-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2022] [Accepted: 07/28/2023] [Indexed: 08/24/2023]
Abstract
Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a contagious viral disease to which dairy cattle are highly susceptible. An outbreak of FMD in a dairy herds can cause a drop in milk yield, increase mastitis infections, and force culling. These production losses can be substantial, but farmers undervalue the magnitude of the loss that they incur. The study quantified the association of FMD outbreaks with milk yield, mastitis incidences, and culling rates. The data was from three large-scale dairy farms with a recent history (2008 to 2018) of FMD outbreaks in a region endemic for the prevalence of serotype C of the FMD virus since the mid-1980s in the Rift valley of Kenya. A total of 507 cows were monitored for three consecutive periods of six weeks before, during, and after FMD outbreaks. Relative to the period before and after the disease outbreak, production losses were marked during the outbreak. A disease outbreak was associated with up to 4.7% of the cows drying off (n = 24) and milk production dropped by 16.1%. The incidence of mastitis increased from 5.4% to 21.5% (OR = 3.31, CI = 2.27, 4.83) and culling rates increased from 0.59% to 3.8% (OR = 6.71, CI = 1.99, 22.58).
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Affiliation(s)
- R A Lewis
- Department of Animal Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Egerton, Njoro, Kenya.
- Department of Animal Production, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environmental Studies, University of Juba, Juba, South Sudan.
| | - O B Kashongwe
- Department of Animal Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Egerton, Njoro, Kenya
| | - B O Bebe
- Department of Animal Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Egerton, Njoro, Kenya
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2
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Beck-Johnson LM, Gorsich EE, Hallman C, Tildesley MJ, Miller RS, Webb CT. An exploration of within-herd dynamics of a transboundary livestock disease: A foot and mouth disease case study. Epidemics 2023; 42:100668. [PMID: 36696830 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100668] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2022] [Revised: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 01/09/2023] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Transboundary livestock diseases are a high priority for policy makers because of the serious economic burdens associated with infection. In order to make well informed preparedness and response plans, policy makers often utilize mathematical models to understand possible outcomes of different control strategies and outbreak scenarios. Many of these models focus on the transmission between herds and the overall trajectory of the outbreak. While the course of infection within herds has not been the focus of the majority of models, a thorough understanding of within-herd dynamics can provide valuable insight into a disease system by providing information on herd-level biological properties of the infection, which can be used to inform decision making in both endemic and outbreak settings and to inform larger between-herd models. In this study, we develop three stochastic simulation models to study within-herd foot and mouth disease dynamics and the implications of different empirical data-based assumptions about the timing of the onset of infectiousness and clinical signs. We also study the influence of herd size and the proportion of the herd that is initially infected on the outcome of the infection. We find that increasing herd size increases the duration of infectiousness and that the size of the herd plays a more significant role in determining this duration than the number of initially infected cattle in that herd. We also find that the assumptions made regarding the onset of infectiousness and clinical signs, which are based on contradictory empirical findings, can result in the predictions about when infection would be detectable differing by several days. Therefore, the disease progression used to characterize the course of infection in a single bovine host could have significant implications for determining when herds can be detected and subsequently controlled; the timing of which could influence the overall predicted trajectory of outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Erin E Gorsich
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, United States of America
| | - Clayton Hallman
- USDA APHIS Veterinary Services, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, United States of America
| | - Michael J Tildesley
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, United Kingdom
| | - Ryan S Miller
- USDA APHIS Veterinary Services, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, United States of America
| | - Colleen T Webb
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, United States of America
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3
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Iriarte MV, Gonzáles JL, de Freitas Costa E, Gil AD, de Jong MCM. Main factors associated with foot-and-mouth disease virus infection during the 2001 FMD epidemic in Uruguay. Front Vet Sci 2023; 10:1070188. [PMID: 36816185 PMCID: PMC9932531 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2023.1070188] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2022] [Accepted: 01/11/2023] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Large epidemics provide the opportunity to understand the epidemiology of diseases under the specific conditions of the affected population. Whilst foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemics have been extensively studied in developed countries, epidemics in developing countries have been sparsely studied. Here we address this limitation by systematically studying the 2001 epidemic in Uruguay where a total of 2,057 farms were affected. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors (RF) associated with infection and spread of the virus within the country. The epidemic was divided into four periods: (1) the high-risk period (HRP) which was the period between the FMD virus introduction and detection of the index case; (2) the local control measures period (LCM) which encompassed the first control measures implemented before mass vaccination was adopted; (3) the first mass vaccination, and (4) the second mass vaccination round. A stochastic model was developed to estimate the time of initial infection for each of the affected farms. Our analyses indicated that during the HRP around 242 farms were probably already infected. In this period, a higher probability of infection was associated with: (1) animal movements [OR: 1.57 (95% CI: 1.19-2.06)]; (2) farms that combined livestock with crop production [OR: 1.93 (95% CI: 1.43-2.60)]; (3) large and medium farms compared to small farms (this difference was dependent on regional herd density); (4) the geographical location. Keeping cattle only (vs farms that kept also sheep) was a significant RF during the subsequent epidemic period (LCM), and remained as RF, together with large farms, for the entire epidemic. We further explored the RF associated with FMDV infection in farms that raised cattle by fitting another model to a data subset. We found that dairy farms had a higher probability of FMDV infection than beef farms during the HRP [OR: 1.81 (95% CI: 1.12-2.83)], and remained as RF until the end of the first round of vaccination. The delay in the detection of the index case associated with unrestricted animal movements during the HRP may have contributed to this large epidemic. This study contributes to the knowledge of FMD epidemiology in extensive production systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- María V. Iriarte
- Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands,Department of Epidemiology, Official Veterinary Services, Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries of Uruguay, Montevideo, Uruguay,Department of Epidemiology, Bioinformatics and Animal Models, Wageningen Bioveterinary, Lelystad, Netherlands,*Correspondence: María V. Iriarte ✉
| | - José L. Gonzáles
- Department of Epidemiology, Bioinformatics and Animal Models, Wageningen Bioveterinary, Lelystad, Netherlands
| | - Eduardo de Freitas Costa
- Department of Epidemiology, Bioinformatics and Animal Models, Wageningen Bioveterinary, Lelystad, Netherlands
| | - Andrés D. Gil
- Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad de la República del Uruguay, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Mart C. M. de Jong
- Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
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4
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Outbreak investigation and identification of risk factors associated with the occurrence of foot and mouth disease in Punjab, Pakistan. Prev Vet Med 2022; 202:105613. [DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105613] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2021] [Revised: 03/13/2022] [Accepted: 03/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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5
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Yamamoto T, Sawai K, Nishi T, Fukai K, Kato T, Hayama Y, Murato Y, Shimizu Y, Yamaguchi E. Subgrouping and analysis of relationships between classical swine fever virus identified during the 2018-2020 epidemic in Japan by a novel approach using shared genomic variants. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 69:1166-1177. [PMID: 33730417 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2021] [Revised: 03/01/2021] [Accepted: 03/15/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Classical swine fever (CSF) is a worldwide devastating disease of the pig industry caused by classical swine fever virus (CSFV). In September 2018, an outbreak of CSF occurred in Japan where the disease had been eradicated and was officially designated a CSF-free country since 2015. Following the detection of the first 2018 case on a farm in Gifu Prefecture, the disease spread among both farm pigs and wild boars and still continues. Epigenome analysis using whole-genome information is helpful in identifying the infection route, but the current approaches provide an insufficient resolution. In this study, a novel method of using single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) was employed to identify the associations among 158 isolates (65 from farms and 93 from wild boars). The identified groups of CSFV strains were plotted in different colours on a map, identifying the location where each strain was collected. The lack of an SNV set shared between the index case and the other strains suggested the first infection in Japan during the outbreak occurred in wild boars, not at the index farm. For the Atsumi Peninsula outbreaks, where nine farms were found infected within a 10-km radius area, the farm strains were assembled into three groups, suggesting these outbreaks resulted from at least three different infection events in this area. For the infections in the area around Saitama Prefecture, an area remote from the epicentre, strains from both the farms and wild boars were identified as being in the same group, suggesting they resulted from one viral introduction. Likewise, seven infected farms in Okinawa Prefecture, almost 1,500 km from Gifu Prefecture, were identified as being in a common, but separate group. By demonstrating the variety of transmission routes and possibility of long-distance infection, these results will help improve disease control measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Takehisa Yamamoto
- Epidemiology Unit, Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Kotaro Sawai
- Epidemiology Unit, Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Tatsuya Nishi
- Foot and Mouth Disease Unit, Division of Transboundary Animal Diseases, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Kodaira, Japan
| | - Katsuhiko Fukai
- Foot and Mouth Disease Unit, Division of Transboundary Animal Diseases, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Kodaira, Japan
| | - Tomoko Kato
- Foot and Mouth Disease Unit, Division of Transboundary Animal Diseases, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Kodaira, Japan
| | - Yoko Hayama
- Epidemiology Unit, Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Yoshinori Murato
- Epidemiology Unit, Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Yumiko Shimizu
- Epidemiology Unit, Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Emi Yamaguchi
- Epidemiology Unit, Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Ibaraki, Japan
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Squarzoni-Diaw C, Arsevska E, Kalthoum S, Hammami P, Cherni J, Daoudi A, Karim Laoufi M, Lezaar Y, Rachid K, Seck I, Ould Elmamy B, Yahya B, Dufour B, Hendrikx P, Cardinale E, Muñoz F, Lancelot R, Coste C. Using a participatory qualitative risk assessment to estimate the risk of introduction and spread of transboundary animal diseases in scarce-data environments: A Spatial Qualitative Risk Analysis applied to foot-and-mouth disease in Tunisia 2014-2019. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 68:1966-1978. [PMID: 33174371 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13920] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2020] [Revised: 10/22/2020] [Accepted: 11/01/2020] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
This article presents a participative and iterative qualitative risk assessment framework that can be used to evaluate the spatial variation of the risk of infectious animal disease introduction and spread on a national scale. The framework was developed through regional training action workshops and field activities. The active involvement of national animal health services enabled the identification, collection and hierarchization of risk factors. Quantitative data were collected in the field, and expert knowledge was integrated to adjust the available data at regional level. Experts categorized and combined the risk factors into ordinal levels of risk per epidemiological unit to ease implementation of risk-based surveillance in the field. The framework was used to perform a qualitative assessment of the risk of introduction and spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Tunisia as part of a series of workshops held between 2015 and 2018. The experts in attendance combined risk factors such as epidemiological status, transboundary movements, proximity to the borders and accessibility to assess the risk of FMD outbreaks in Tunisia. Out of the 2,075 Tunisian imadas, 23 were at a very high risk of FMD introduction, mainly at the borders; and 59 were at a very high risk of FMD spread. To validate the model, the results were compared to the FMD outbreaks notified by Tunisia during the 2014 FMD epizootic. Using a spatial Poisson model, a significant alignment between the very high and high-risk categories of spread and the occurrence of FMD outbreaks was shown. The relative risk of FMD occurrence was thus 3.2 higher for imadas in the very high and high spread risk categories than for imadas in the low and negligible spread risk categories. Our results show that the qualitative risk assessment framework can be a useful decision support tool for risk-based disease surveillance and control, in particular in scarce-data environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cécile Squarzoni-Diaw
- CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France.,ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France
| | - Elena Arsevska
- ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France.,CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, Montpellier, France
| | - Sana Kalthoum
- Centre national de veille zoosanitaire (CNVZ), Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Pachka Hammami
- CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France.,ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France
| | - Jamel Cherni
- Centre national de veille zoosanitaire (CNVZ), Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Assia Daoudi
- Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Alger, Algeria
| | | | - Yassir Lezaar
- Office National, Sécurité Sanitaire des Produits Alimentaires (ONSSA), Rabat, Morocco
| | - Kechna Rachid
- Office National, Sécurité Sanitaire des Produits Alimentaires (ONSSA), Rabat, Morocco
| | - Ismaila Seck
- Food and Agricultural organization of the United Nations (FAO), Regional Office for Africa (RAF), Accra, Ghana.,Ministère de l'Élevage et des Productions Animales, Dakar, Sénégal
| | - Bezeid Ould Elmamy
- Office National de Recherche et de Développement de l'Elevage (ONARDEL), Nouakchott, Mauritania.,Regional Diseases Surveillance System Enhancement (REDISSE) in West Africa, Nouakchott, Mauritania
| | - Barry Yahya
- Office National de Recherche et de Développement de l'Elevage (ONARDEL), Nouakchott, Mauritania
| | - Barbara Dufour
- USC EPIMAI Unit, Anses, Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire d'Alfort, Maisons-Alfort, France
| | - Pascal Hendrikx
- CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, Montpellier, France.,ENSV-France Vétérinaire International, Lyon 69, France
| | - Eric Cardinale
- CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France.,ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France
| | - Facundo Muñoz
- ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France.,CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, Montpellier, France
| | - Renaud Lancelot
- ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France.,CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, Montpellier, France
| | - Caroline Coste
- ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France.,CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, Montpellier, France
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van Andel M, Tildesley MJ, Gates MC. Challenges and opportunities for using national animal datasets to support foot-and-mouth disease control. Transbound Emerg Dis 2020; 68:1800-1813. [PMID: 32986919 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2020] [Revised: 09/20/2020] [Accepted: 09/21/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
National level databases of animal numbers, locations and movements provide the essential foundations for disease preparedness, outbreak investigations and control activities. These activities are particularly important for managing and mitigating the risks of high-impact transboundary animal disease outbreaks such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which can significantly affect international trade access and domestic food security. In countries where livestock production systems are heavily subsidized by the government, producers are often required to provide detailed animal movement and demographic data as a condition of business. In the remaining countries, it can be difficult to maintain these types of databases and impossible to estimate the extent of missing or inaccurate information due to the absence of gold standard datasets for comparison. Consequently, competent authorities are often required to make decisions about disease preparedness and control based on available data, which may result in suboptimal outcomes for their livestock industries. It is important to understand the limitations of poor data quality as well as the range of methods that have been developed to compensate in both disease-free and endemic situations. Using FMD as a case example, this review first discusses the different activities that competent authorities use farm-level animal population data for to support (1) preparedness activities in disease-free countries, (2) response activities during an acute outbreak in a disease-free country, and (3) eradication and control activities in an endemic country. We then discuss (4) data requirements needed to support epidemiological investigations, surveillance, and disease spread modelling both in disease-free and endemic countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mary van Andel
- Ministry for Primary Industries, Operations Branch, Diagnostic and Surveillance Services Directorate, Wallaceville, New Zealand
| | - Michael J Tildesley
- School of Life Sciences, Gibbet Hill Campus, The University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
| | - M Carolyn Gates
- School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
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Cattle Manure Trade Network Analysis and the Relevant Spatial Pathways in an Endemic Area of Foot and Mouth Disease in Northern Thailand. Vet Sci 2020; 7:vetsci7030138. [PMID: 32961664 PMCID: PMC7557812 DOI: 10.3390/vetsci7030138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2020] [Revised: 09/17/2020] [Accepted: 09/18/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Animal movement is one of the most important risk factors for outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in cattle. Likewise, FMD can spread to cattle farms via vehicles contaminated with the FMD virus. In Northern Thailand, the movement of manure transport vehicles and the circulation of manure bags among cattle farms are considered as potential risk factors for FMD outbreaks among cattle farms. This study aimed to determine the characteristics and movement patterns of manure tradesman using social network analysis. A structured questionnaire was used to identify sequences of farms routinely visited by each tradesman. A total of 611 participants were interviewed, including 154 beef farmers, 407 dairy farmers, 36 tradesmen, and 14 final purchasers. A static weighted directed one-mode network was constructed, and the network metrics were measured. For the manure tradesman–cattle farmer network, the tradesman possessed the highest value of in- and out-degree centralities (71 and 4), betweenness centralities (114.5), and k-core values (2). These results indicated that the tradesman had a high frequency of farm visits and had a remarkable influence on other persons (nodes) in the network. The movement of vehicles ranged from within local districts, among districts, or even across provinces. Unclean manure plastic bags were circulated among cattle farms. Therefore, both vehicles and the bags may act as a disease fomite. Interestingly, no recording system was implemented for the movement of manure transport vehicles. This study suggested that the relevant authority and stakeholders should be aware of the risk of FMD spreading within this manure trading network. The findings from this study can be used as supporting data that can be used for enhancing FMD control measures, especially for FMD endemic areas.
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Outbreak investigation of foot and mouth disease in Nangarhar province of war-torn Afghanistan, 2014. Sci Rep 2020; 10:13800. [PMID: 32796942 PMCID: PMC7429494 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-70489-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2019] [Accepted: 07/20/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Afghanistan has long history of ongoing conflicts, resulting in massive destruction of the country's infrastructure. Illegal trade of livestock between Afghanistan and Pakistan boosted the spread of Foot & Mouth Disease (FMD). Current study was conducted to investigate outbreaks of FMD occurred between April-August 2014 in Nangarhar, Afghanistan. Descriptive data about suspected FMD cases were collected from the Civil Veterinary Hospital, Nangarhar to analyze spatio-temporal pattern of FMD. Case farms (n = 137) were selected from list of clinically confirmed FMD outbreaks available in the hospital. Control farms (n = 137) were enrolled from neighboring premises of case farms. The epidemic curve showed that the virus is continuously circulating among susceptible population. The mean age of the oldest lesion was 2.8 days. Foot & Mouth Disease was more likely to occur in female animals compared to male animals (p < 0.001). Farmers having no ability to clinically recognize FMD (OR 5.8, 95% CI 1.4-23.8); previously having any FMD case in herd (OR 11.8, 95% CI 3.0-45.8), farms where animals leave shed during day (OR 15.4, 95% CI 5.6-42.0), and farms, where neighboring farmers used to visit the premises (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.2-9.9) were identified as risk factors. Current findings may be used to create awareness of concerned veterinary health authorities about FMD control.
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Firestone SM, Hayama Y, Lau MSY, Yamamoto T, Nishi T, Bradhurst RA, Demirhan H, Stevenson MA, Tsutsui T. Transmission network reconstruction for foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks incorporating farm-level covariates. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0235660. [PMID: 32667952 PMCID: PMC7363093 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0235660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2019] [Accepted: 06/22/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Transmission network modelling to infer 'who infected whom' in infectious disease outbreaks is a highly active area of research. Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease have been a key focus of transmission network models that integrate genomic and epidemiological data. The aim of this study was to extend Lau's systematic Bayesian inference framework to incorporate additional parameters representing predominant species and numbers of animals held on a farm. Lau's Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was reformulated, verified and pseudo-validated on 100 simulated outbreaks populated with demographic data Japan and Australia. The modified model was then implemented on genomic and epidemiological data from the 2010 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Japan, and outputs compared to those from the SCOTTI model implemented in BEAST2. The modified model achieved improvements in overall accuracy when tested on the simulated outbreaks. When implemented on the actual outbreak data from Japan, infected farms that held predominantly pigs were estimated to have five times the transmissibility of infected cattle farms and be 49% less susceptible. The farm-level incubation period was 1 day shorter than the latent period, the timing of the seeding of the outbreak in Japan was inferred, as were key linkages between clusters and features of farms involved in widespread dissemination of this outbreak. To improve accessibility the modified model has been implemented as the R package 'BORIS' for use in future outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon M. Firestone
- Melbourne Veterinary School, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Yoko Hayama
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture Research Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Max S. Y. Lau
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Takehisa Yamamoto
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture Research Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Tatsuya Nishi
- Exotic Disease Research Station, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Kodaira, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Richard A. Bradhurst
- Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Haydar Demirhan
- Mathematical Sciences Discipline, School of Science, RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Mark A. Stevenson
- Melbourne Veterinary School, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Toshiyuki Tsutsui
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture Research Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
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Determination of Risk Factors Associated with Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Dairy Farms in Chiang Mai Province, Northern Thailand. Animals (Basel) 2020; 10:ani10030512. [PMID: 32204373 PMCID: PMC7143784 DOI: 10.3390/ani10030512] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2020] [Revised: 03/11/2020] [Accepted: 03/13/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary One hundred and 40 dairy farms that experienced foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks and 307 farms without FMD outbreaks were investigated in this research study. Relevant farm owners were interviewed in order to determine the farm-level risk factors associated with the FMD outbreaks. We established that the risk factors for FMD outbreaks were (1) purchasing a new cow without following quarantine protocol, (2) FMD vaccination administration by non-official livestock personnel, (3) farms located within a 5 km radius of cattle abattoirs, (4) farms located near shared cattle grazing areas in a 10 km radius and (5) no history of FMD outbreaks in the previous year. Most of the risk factors were related to indirect transmissions of FMD and biosecurity practices, thus we have advised dairy farmers to strengthen management practices associated with FMD prevention protocols. Abstract Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered a highly contagious transboundary disease of cloven-hoofed animals. FMD has become endemic to northern Thailand over the past decade. In 2016, FMD outbreaks were recorded in three districts in Chiang Mai Province. The objective of this study was to determine the farm-level risk factors associated with FMD outbreaks. This study was conducted via a face-to-face interview questionnaire survey at 140 FMD outbreak farms and 307 control farms. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine the association between potential risk factors and FMD outbreaks. The final logistic regression model identified factors associated with FMD outbreaks including the purchasing of a new cow without following quarantine protocol (odds ratio = 2.41, 95%CI = 1.45, 4.05), farms located near shared cattle grazing areas in a 10 km radius (OR = 1.83, 95%CI =1.11, 3.02), FMD vaccination administration by non-official livestock personnel (OR = 2.52, 95%CI = 1.39, 4.58), farms located in a 5 km radius of cattle abattoirs (OR = 1.83, 95%CI = 0.99, 3.40) and no history of FMD outbreaks over the previous 12 months in districts where farms were located (OR = 0.44, 95%CI = 0.22, 0.86). The risk factors identified in this study were related to farm biosecurity, FMD vaccination administration and distance from the farms to risk areas. Therefore, it was important to strengthen on-farm biosecurity and to improve farm management practices in order to reduce incidences of FMD at the farm level. Education or training programs for dairy farmers that would enhance knowledge and practices in relation to the assessed topics are needed.
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Hayama Y, Firestone SM, Stevenson MA, Yamamoto T, Nishi T, Shimizu Y, Tsutsui T. Reconstructing a transmission network and identifying risk factors of secondary transmissions in the 2010 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Japan. Transbound Emerg Dis 2019; 66:2074-2086. [PMID: 31131968 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2018] [Revised: 05/17/2019] [Accepted: 05/17/2019] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Research aimed at understanding transmission networks, representing a network of "who infected whom" for an infectious disease outbreak, have been actively conducted in recent years. Transmission network models incorporating epidemiological and genetic data are valuable for elucidating disease transmission pathways. In this study, we reconstructed the transmission network of the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Japan in 2010, and explored farm-level risk factors associated with increased risk of secondary transmission. A published, systematic Bayesian transmission network model was applied to epidemiological data of 292 infected farms and whole genome sequence data of 104 of the infected farms. This model can make inferences for known infected farms even lacking genetic data. After estimating the consensus network, the accuracy of the network was examined by comparison with epidemiological data. Then, risk factors inferred to have been sources of secondary transmission were explored using zero-inflated Poisson regression model. As far as we are aware, this study represents the largest FMD outbreak transmission network to be published by such means combining epidemiological and genetic data. The consensus network reasonably generated the epidemiological links, which were estimated from the actual epidemiological investigation. Among 292 farms, 101 farms (35%) were inferred to have been the sources of secondary transmission, and amongst these farms, the median number of secondary cases was 2 (min:1-max:18) farms. The farm-type (small and large -sized pig farms), the number of days from onset to notification, and the number of susceptible farms within a 1-km radius were significantly associated with secondary transmission. Transmission network modelling enabled inference of the connections between infected farms during the FMD epidemic and identified important factors for controlling the risk of secondary transmission. This study demonstrated that the predominant susceptible species held on a farm, farm size, and animal density were associated with increased onwards transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoko Hayama
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Simon M Firestone
- Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, Melbourne Veterinary School, Asia-Pacific Centre for Animal Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Mark A Stevenson
- Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, Melbourne Veterinary School, Asia-Pacific Centre for Animal Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Takehisa Yamamoto
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Tatsuya Nishi
- Exotic Disease Research Station, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Kodaira, Japan
| | - Yumiko Shimizu
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Toshiyuki Tsutsui
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan
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Souley Kouato B, De Clercq K, Abatih E, Dal Pozzo F, King DP, Thys E, Marichatou H, Saegerman C. Review of epidemiological risk models for foot-and-mouth disease: Implications for prevention strategies with a focus on Africa. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0208296. [PMID: 30543641 PMCID: PMC6292601 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0208296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2016] [Accepted: 11/15/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious transboundary disease that affects domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animal species. The aim of this review was to identify and critically assess some modelling techniques for FMD that are well supported by scientific evidence from the literature with a focus on their use in African countries where the disease remains enzootic. In particular, this study attempted to provide a synopsis of the relative strengths and weaknesses of these models and their relevance to FMD prevention policies. A literature search was conducted to identify quantitative and qualitative risk assessments for FMD, including studies that describe FMD risk factor modelling and spatiotemporal analysis. A description of retrieved papers and a critical assessment of the modelling methods, main findings and their limitations were performed. Different types of models have been used depending on the purpose of the study and the nature of available data. The most frequently identified factors associated with the risk of FMD occurrence were the movement (especially uncontrolled animal movement) and the mixing of animals around water and grazing points. Based on the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment studies, the critical pathway analysis showed that the overall risk of FMDV entering a given country is low. However, in some cases, this risk can be elevated, especially when illegal importation of meat and the movement of terrestrial livestock are involved. Depending on the approach used, these studies highlight shortcomings associated with the application of models and the lack of reliable data from endemic settings. Therefore, the development and application of specific models for use in FMD endemic countries including Africa is encouraged.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bachir Souley Kouato
- Research Unit in Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Applied to Veterinary Sciences (UREAR-ULiège), Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals & Health (FARAH) Centre, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Liege, Liege, Belgium
- Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique du Niger (INRAN), Niamey, Niger
| | - Kris De Clercq
- Operational Directorate Viral Diseases, Unit Vesicular and Exotic Diseases, Veterinary and Agrochemical Research Centre (CODA-CERVA), Brussels, Belgium
| | - Emmanuel Abatih
- Department of Mathematics, Computer Sciences and Statistics, University of Gent, Krijgslaan Gent, Belgium
| | - Fabiana Dal Pozzo
- Research Unit in Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Applied to Veterinary Sciences (UREAR-ULiège), Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals & Health (FARAH) Centre, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Liege, Liege, Belgium
| | - Donald P. King
- The Pirbright Institute, Ash Road, Pirbright, Surrey, United Kingdom
| | - Eric Thys
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Hamani Marichatou
- Université Abdou Moumouni de Niamey, Faculté d'Agronomie, Niamey, Niger
| | - Claude Saegerman
- Research Unit in Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Applied to Veterinary Sciences (UREAR-ULiège), Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals & Health (FARAH) Centre, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Liege, Liege, Belgium
- * E-mail:
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Appeltant R, Somfai T, Kikuchi K. Faster, cheaper, defined and efficient vitrification for immature porcine oocytes through modification of exposure time, macromolecule source and temperature. Cryobiology 2018; 85:87-94. [DOI: 10.1016/j.cryobiol.2018.09.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2018] [Revised: 09/11/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
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15
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Flory GA, Peer RW, Clark RA, Baccar MN, Le TT, Mbarek AB, Farsi S. Aboveground burial for managing catastrophic losses of livestock. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ONE HEALTH 2017. [DOI: 10.14202/ijoh.2017.50-56] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
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16
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Webb CT, Ferrari M, Lindström T, Carpenter T, Dürr S, Garner G, Jewell C, Stevenson M, Ward MP, Werkman M, Backer J, Tildesley M. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management. Prev Vet Med 2017; 138:124-133. [PMID: 28237227 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.01.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2016] [Accepted: 01/02/2017] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application.
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Affiliation(s)
- Colleen T Webb
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - Matthew Ferrari
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Tom Lindström
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA; IFM, Theory and Modelling, Linköpings Universitet, Linköping, Sweden
| | - Tim Carpenter
- EpiCentre, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | - Salome Dürr
- Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Berne, Switzerland
| | - Graeme Garner
- Animal Health Policy Branch, Department of Agriculture, Canberra, Australia
| | - Chris Jewell
- Institute of Fundamental Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | - Mark Stevenson
- Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia
| | - Michael P Ward
- Faculty of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, Australia
| | - Marleen Werkman
- Central Veterinary Institute part of Wageningen UR (CVI), Lelystad, The Netherlands
| | - Jantien Backer
- Central Veterinary Institute part of Wageningen UR (CVI), Lelystad, The Netherlands
| | - Michael Tildesley
- Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (WIDER) Group, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
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Wada M, Stevenson M, Cogger N, Carpenter T. Evaluation of the Control Strategy for the 2010 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Japan Using Disease Simulation. Transbound Emerg Dis 2016; 64:978-989. [PMID: 26748445 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2015] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
In 2010, Japan experienced a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic where 292 premises were infected over a period of 75 days. The epidemic was controlled by stamping-out and vaccination, applied 5 weeks after the first confirmation of disease within a 10 km radius of identified infected places. This study aimed at identifying the role of emergency vaccination to epidemic control while adjusting for the dynamic pattern of local spread, and assessing alternative vaccination strategies, using a disease simulation model. Our results indicate that the overall hazard of local spread remained high throughout the silent spread phase and the first two weeks post-detection, with significant reduction occurring from week 3 onwards. The estimated effectiveness of emergency vaccination quantified as reduction in the hazard of infection was at most 81% and 44% for cattle and pig farms, respectively. The vaccination strategy reduced the simulated median number of IPs by 22%, epidemic duration by 64% and culling duration by 52%, but increased the total number of infected or vaccinated premises subject to culling by 144% compared with no vaccination. The simulation indicated that vaccination starting 2 weeks earlier (3 weeks post-first detection) with a smaller vaccination radius (3 km) was more effective for eradication of the epidemic compared with the actually implemented strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Wada
- EpiCentre, Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | - M Stevenson
- EpiCentre, Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.,Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - N Cogger
- EpiCentre, Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | - T Carpenter
- EpiCentre, Institute of Veterinary Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
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Garcia DCC, Sá CVGCD, McManus CM, Melo CBD. IMPACTOS DO SURTO DE FEBRE AFTOSA DE 2005 SOBRE AS EXPORTAÇÕES DE CARNE BOVINA BRASILEIRA. CIÊNCIA ANIMAL BRASILEIRA 2015. [DOI: 10.1590/1089-6891v16i426158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Resumo A febre aftosa é uma barreira sanitária no comércio internacional e implica elevados investimentos para seu controle e graves prejuízos em casos de surto. Este trabalho investigou os impactos causados pela febre aftosa nas exportações de carne bovina in natura do Brasil após o surto de 2005, além do cumprimento do Princípio da Regionalização do Acordo sobre a Aplicação de Medidas Sanitárias e Fitossanitárias (SPS) pelos países membros da OMC, que compunham a lista dos 10 maiores importadores dessa carne em 2004. Foi realizada análise descritiva das exportações de carne bovina congelada e resfriada (carne bovina in natura), considerando-se os anos de 2004 a 2006, para os 10 maiores importadores desses produtos do Brasil e do mundo em 2004. Verificou-se que o surto não impediu o aumento das exportações de carne bovina in natura do Brasil, mas impactou negativamente as exportações do Mato Grosso do Sul e Paraná. A doença não causou impacto nas exportações para os Estados Unidos, Japão e México. Arábia Saudita, Rússia e Irã não eram Membros da OMC em outubro de 2005 e, portanto, não tinham a obrigação de respeitar o Princípio da Regionalização, ainda que a Rússia o tenha feito. Dentre os demais grandes importadores de 2004, os Países Baixos, Egito, Itália, Reino Unido, França, Alemanha e Espanha respeitaram o Princípio da Regionalização do Acordo SPS. O Chile não respeitou o Princípio da Regionalização e a ocorrência da doença fechou aquele mercado à carne bovina brasileira in natura.
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Hayama Y, Kimura Y, Yamamoto T, Kobayashi S, Tsutsui T. Potential risk associated with animal culling and disposal during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Japan in 2010. Res Vet Sci 2015; 102:228-30. [PMID: 26412549 DOI: 10.1016/j.rvsc.2015.08.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2015] [Revised: 08/25/2015] [Accepted: 08/25/2015] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
The large-scale foot-and-mouth (FMD) outbreak in 2010 in Japan presented logistical challenges in conducting animal culling and disposal. During the epidemic, culling of animals on infected farms was delayed owing to the difficulties in finding suitable burial sites. In this study, a retrospective matched case-control study was conducted to investigate the potential transmission risk associated with carcass disposal by considering the geographical relationship between farms and burial sites. The results showed that burial sites and transportation routes used for carcass disposal were not significant infection sources to the neighboring farms. However, infectious farms within 500 m, particularly, pig infected farms, posed a significant transmission risk to the neighboring farms. Implementation of strict bio-security measures during carcass disposal operation is essential to reduce the risk of disease transmission to neighboring farms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoko Hayama
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856, Japan.
| | - Yoshinari Kimura
- Department of Geography, Graduate School of Literature and Human Sciences, Osaka City University, 3-3-138 Sugimoto, Sumiyoshi-ku, Osaka 558-8585, Japan.
| | - Takehisa Yamamoto
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856, Japan.
| | - Sota Kobayashi
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856, Japan.
| | - Toshiyuki Tsutsui
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856, Japan.
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Hayama Y, Yamamoto T, Kobayashi S, Muroga N, Tsutsui T. Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size and effectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan. J Vet Med Sci 2015; 78:13-22. [PMID: 26256043 PMCID: PMC4751111 DOI: 10.1292/jvms.15-0224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species,
influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of
livestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this
simulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan
as the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle
production area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy,
only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area,
whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics were
successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in the
CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms,
raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14
after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied
a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination
and 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics
within 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr
culling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely
populated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important in
planning FMD control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoko Hayama
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856, Japan
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Hayama Y, Yamamoto T, Kobayashi S, Muroga N, Tsutsui T. Evaluation of the transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease in Japan. J Vet Med Sci 2015; 77:1167-70. [PMID: 25855508 PMCID: PMC4591161 DOI: 10.1292/jvms.14-0461] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
The transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Japan was evaluated using a mathematical FMD transmission model. The distance-based transmission rate between farms, which was parameterized using the FMD epidemic data in 2010 in Japan, was used to calculate the local-level reproduction numbers-expected numbers of secondary infections caused by one infected farm-for all cattle and pig farms in the country, which were then visualized as a risk map. The risk map demonstrated the spatial heterogeneity of transmission risk in the country and identified risk areas with higher possibility of disease spread. This result suggests that, particularly in high-risk areas, it is important to prepare for the smooth and efficient implementation of control measures against FMD outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoko Hayama
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856, Japan
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Wekesa SN, Namatovu A, Sangula AK, Dhikusooka MT, Muwanika VB, Tjørnehøj K. A serological survey for antibodies against foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in domestic pigs during outbreaks in Kenya. Trop Anim Health Prod 2014; 46:575-81. [DOI: 10.1007/s11250-013-0530-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/20/2013] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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Mathematical model of the 2010 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Japan and evaluation of control measures. Prev Vet Med 2013; 112:183-93. [DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.08.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2012] [Revised: 08/15/2013] [Accepted: 08/17/2013] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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Wekesa SN, Muwanika VB, Siegismund HR, Sangula AK, Namatovu A, Dhikusooka MT, Tjørnehøj K, Balinda SN, Wadsworth J, Knowles NJ, Belsham GJ. Analysis of Recent Serotype O Foot-and-Mouth Disease Viruses from Livestock in Kenya: Evidence of Four Independently Evolving Lineages. Transbound Emerg Dis 2013; 62:305-14. [DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12152] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2013] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- S. N. Wekesa
- Foot-and-Mouth Disease Laboratory; Ministry of Livestock Development; Embakasi Nairobi Kenya
- Department of Environmental Management; College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences; Makerere University; Kampala Uganda
| | - V. B. Muwanika
- Department of Environmental Management; College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences; Makerere University; Kampala Uganda
| | - H. R. Siegismund
- Department of Biology; University of Copenhagen; Copenhagen N Denmark
| | - A. K. Sangula
- Foot-and-Mouth Disease Laboratory; Ministry of Livestock Development; Embakasi Nairobi Kenya
| | - A. Namatovu
- National Animal Disease Diagnostics and Epidemiology Centre; Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries; Entebbe Uganda
- Department of Biotechnical and Diagnostic Sciences; College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and Biosecurity; Makerere University; Kampala Uganda
| | - M. T. Dhikusooka
- Department of Environmental Management; College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences; Makerere University; Kampala Uganda
- National Animal Disease Diagnostics and Epidemiology Centre; Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries; Entebbe Uganda
| | - K. Tjørnehøj
- National Veterinary Institute; Technical University of Denmark; Lindholm Kalvehave Denmark
| | - S. N. Balinda
- Department of Environmental Management; College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences; Makerere University; Kampala Uganda
| | | | | | - G. J. Belsham
- National Veterinary Institute; Technical University of Denmark; Lindholm Kalvehave Denmark
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Muroga N, Kobayashi S, Nishida T, Hayama Y, Kawano T, Yamamoto T, Tsutsui T. Risk factors for the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2010 outbreak in Japan: a case-control study. BMC Vet Res 2013; 9:150. [PMID: 23880398 PMCID: PMC3724691 DOI: 10.1186/1746-6148-9-150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2012] [Accepted: 07/19/2013] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In 2010, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred for the first time in a decade in Japan. Movement or shipment of people and animals around infected farms was restricted; however these contingency measures proved insufficient to prevent FMD spread. Consequently, a total of 292 farms were confirmed as infected during this outbreak. We conducted a case–control study to identify the risk factors associated with FMD transmission between farms during these restrictions. As there was discordance in the control measures taken, risk factors were examined separately for two areas. Analyses were also performed separately for cattle and pig farms given their different infectivity and susceptibility. Results For cattle farms in the movement restriction area, the odds of having the factor ‘farm equipment was shared with other farms’ was significantly higher for case farms than for control farms. For cattle farms in the shipment restriction area, the odds of having the factors ‘feed transport vehicles visited the farm’ and ‘staff of livestock-related companies visited the farm’ were significantly higher on case farms than control farms. In pig farms in the movement restriction area, the odds of having factor ‘farm staff commuted from outside’ was 20 times higher for case farms than control farms. In addition, case farms were less likely to have the factors ‘fattening farm’ and ‘barn has physical barriers’ compared with control farms. Conclusions In the movement restriction area, the disease was likely to spread regardless of the movement of people and vehicles, and physical barriers were found to be a protective factor. Therefore, physical barriers from the surrounding environments seemed to prevent farms from being infected. Conversely, in the shipment restriction area, movement of people and vehicles was strongly associated with disease spread. These results allow a better understanding of the risk factors associated with FMD transmission and are useful to enhance future preventive measures against transmission during FMD outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Norihiko Muroga
- Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856, Japan
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Yoon H, Yoon SS, Kim YJ, Moon OK, Wee SH, Joo YS, Kim B. Epidemiology of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Serotype O Epidemic of November 2010 to April 2011 in the Republic Of Korea. Transbound Emerg Dis 2013; 62:252-63. [PMID: 23731597 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2013] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
The largest epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Korea since the first record in 1911 occurred between November 2010 and April 2011. The outbreak was confirmed in 153 farms, and more than three million animals were destroyed. This study presents the temporal and spatial distribution patterns, epidemiological investigation and the control measures for the 2010/2011 epidemic in Korea. The index case of this 2010/2011 FMD epidemic was reported in a pig-farming complex with five piggeries in Andong, GyeongBuk Province, on 28 November 2010, and the outbreak lasted 145 days. The largest number of new detection of the infected farms per day was recorded in mid-January. Epidemiological investigation revealed that the FMD virus had spread from farm to farm through routine movements associated with animal husbandry operations. In contrast to FMD epidemics in other countries in which movement of the infected animals largely contributed to the spread of the disease, human behaviours were major factors in the spread of the FMD virus in the Korean epidemic. The 2010/2011 epidemic was first confirmed in a local small and medium city where share of smallholder producers is higher than that of other provinces. Although Korea had a well-developed emergent response system with the experience of controlling infection and re-obtaining FMD-free status after the previous epidemics, Korea was prompted to revise their contingency plan by tailoring it to its unique livestock environment. Practical contingency plans tailored to Korea for control of FMD can be fully effective when farmers, livestock-related agencies, veterinary service providers and the general public work together.
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Affiliation(s)
- H Yoon
- Veterinary Epidemiology Division, Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency (QIA), Anyang, Korea
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Allepuz A, Stevenson M, Kivaria F, Berkvens D, Casal J, Picado A. Risk Factors for Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Tanzania, 2001-2006. Transbound Emerg Dis 2013; 62:127-36. [DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2012] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- A. Allepuz
- Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA); UAB-IRTA; Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Barcelona Spain
- Departament de Sanitat i Anatomia Animals; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Barcelona Spain
| | - M. Stevenson
- EpiCentre; Institute of Veterinary, Animal, and Biomedical Sciences; Massey University; Palmerston North New Zealand
| | - F. Kivaria
- National Epidemiology Section; Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries Development; Dar es Salaam Tanzania
| | - D. Berkvens
- Animal Health Department; Institute of Tropical Medicine; Antwerpen Belgium
| | - J. Casal
- Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA); UAB-IRTA; Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Barcelona Spain
- Departament de Sanitat i Anatomia Animals; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Barcelona Spain
| | - A. Picado
- School of Life Sciences; University of Warwick; Coventry UK
- Barcelona Centre for International Health Research (CRESIB, Hospital Clínic-Universitat de Barcelona); Barcelona Spain
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Fukai K, Morioka K, Onozato H, Yoshida K, Sakamoto K. Comparative evaluation of three commercial ELISA kits for detection of antibodies to a nonstructural protein of foot-and-mouth disease virus. J Vet Med Sci 2013; 75:693-9. [PMID: 23328606 DOI: 10.1292/jvms.12-0430] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
In this study, we validated three commercial ELISA (NSP-ELISA) kits that detect antibodies to a nonstructural protein of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in terms of their specificities and sensitivities. Although the specificities of the NSP-ELISA kits were as high as that of liquid-phase blocking ELISA (LPBE) in non-infected, non-vaccinated animals, the sensitivities of the NSP-ELISA kits were significantly lower than those of the present LPBE and did not agree with the findings of a previous report on infected animals in the field. Therefore, although countries can adopt both a "vaccination-to-kill" policy and a "vaccination-to-live" policy after emergency vaccination during an FMD epidemic, the NSP-ELISA kits do not seem to be suitable for the latter policy in Japan. These results should be useful for choosing appropriate control measures for potential future FMD epidemics in Japan and elsewhere.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katsuhiko Fukai
- Exotic Disease Research Station, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tokyo 187-0022, Japan
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