Predictive validity of conversion from the clinical high risk syndrome to frank psychosis

Baseline Antipsychotic Dose and Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

Emerging meta-analytical evidence indicates that baseline exposure to antipsychotics is associated with an increased risk of transitioning to psychosis in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) and that such effect is not a result of pretest risk enrichment. However, to maximize its translational utility for prognostic stratification in clinical practice, testing for the potential presence of a dose-response association is crucial.

Objective

To test whether the negative prognostic effect of baseline antipsychotic exposure in individuals at CHR-P follows a dose-effect pattern, as indicated by mean chlorpromazine equivalent doses (CPZ-ED).

Data Sources

MEDLINE and Cochrane Library, performed up to August 31, 2023, searching for English-language studies on individuals at CHR-P reporting data on exposure to antipsychotics at baseline and detailed information on dosage by transition status.

Study Selection

Studies that provided information on antipsychotic exposure at baseline and included detailed dosage data categorized by transition status.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Eligible studies were identified following PRISMA guidelines and evaluated independently by 2 reviewers with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for assessing the quality of nonrandomized studies in meta-analyses.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was transition to psychosis in individuals at CHR-P who were receiving antipsychotic treatment at baseline, measured by baseline mean CPZ-ED in individuals at CHR-P who transitioned to psychosis compared to those who did not.

Results

Eight studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Among 290 individuals at CHR-P (mean [SD] age, 19.4 [2.6] years) who were exposed to antipsychotics at baseline and remained in contact up to the completion of the study, 66 converted to psychosis and 224 did not. The mean CPZ-ED ranged 60 to 395 mg/d in those who converted and 13 to 224 mg/d in those who did not. Those who converted to psychosis had higher CPZ-ED than those who did not in both the common-effects model (Hedges g, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.12-0.70; z, 2.78; P = .005) and in the random-effects model (Hedges g, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.15-0.67; z, 3.69; P = .008; τ2, 0.0). There was no relevant heterogeneity (Cochran Q, 3.99; df, 7; P = .78; I2, 0.0%; 95% CI, 0.0-68.0). The radial plot indicated a good fit of the model.

Conclusions and Relevance

In individuals at CHR-P who were exposed to antipsychotics at baseline, those receiving higher antipsychotic doses demonstrated an increased likelihood of transitioning to psychosis. This meta-analytic evidence of putative dose-effect association confirms that baseline antipsychotic exposure and the corresponding dosage carry salient prognostic information that could improve current CHR-P criteria-based risk stratification at inception.

Cognitive functions following initiation of antipsychotic medication in adolescents and adults at clinical high risk for psychosis: a naturalistic sub group analysis using the MATRICS consensus cognitive battery

BACKGROUND

The effects of antipsychotic (AP) medications on cognitive functions in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) of psychosis are poorly understood. This study compared the effects of AP treatment on cognitive improvement in CHR adolescents and adults.

METHODS

A total of 327 CHR participants, with an age range of 13 to 45 years, who underwent baseline neuropsychological assessments and a 1-year clinical follow-up were included. Participants with CHR were categorized into four groups based on their age: adolescents (aged < 18) and adults (aged ≥ 18), as well as their antipsychotic medication status (AP+ or AP-). Therefore, the four groups were defined as Adolescent-AP-, Adolescent-AP+, Adult-AP-, and Adult-AP+.

RESULTS

During the follow-up, 231 CHR patients received AP treatment, 94 converted to psychosis, and 161 completed the 1-year follow-up. The Adolescent-AP+ group had more positive symptoms, lower general functions, and cognitive impairments than the Adolescent-AP- group at baseline, but no significant differences were observed among adults. The Adolescent-AP+ group showed a significant increase in the risk of conversion to psychosis (p < 0.001) compared to the Adolescent-AP- group. The Adult-AP+ group showed a decreasing trend in the risk of conversion (p = 0.088) compared to the Adult-AP- group. The Adolescent-AP- group had greater improvement in general functions (p < 0.001), neuropsychological assessment battery mazes (p = 0.025), and brief visuospatial memory test-revised (p = 0.020), as well as a greater decrease in positive symptoms (p < 0.001) at follow-up compared to the Adolescent-AP+ group. No significant differences were observed among adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Early use of AP was not associated with a positive effect on cognitive function in CHR adolescents. Instead, the absence of AP treatment was associated with better cognitive recovery, suggesting that AP exposure might not be the preferred choice for cognitive recovery in CHR adolescents, but may be more reasonable for use in adults.

Effects of Benzodiazepine Exposure on Real-World Clinical Outcomes in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Animal models indicate GABAergic dysfunction in the development of psychosis, and that benzodiazepine (BDZ) exposure can prevent the emergence of psychosis-relevant phenotypes. However, whether BDZ exposure influences real-world clinical outcomes in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) is unknown.

STUDY DESIGN

This observational cohort study used electronic health record data from CHR-P individuals to investigate whether BDZ exposure (including hypnotics, eg, zopiclone) reduces the risk of developing psychosis and adverse clinical outcomes. Cox proportional-hazards models were employed in both the whole-unmatched sample, and a propensity score matched (PSM) subsample.

STUDY RESULTS

567 CHR-P individuals (306 male, mean[±SD] age = 22.3[±4.9] years) were included after data cleaning. The BDZ-exposed (n = 105) and BDZ-unexposed (n = 462) groups differed on several demographic and clinical characteristics, including psychotic symptom severity. In the whole-unmatched sample, BDZ exposure was associated with increased risk of transition to psychosis (HR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.03-2.52; P = .037), psychiatric hospital admission (HR = 1.93; 95% CI: 1.13-3.29; P = .017), home visit (HR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.18-2.28; P = .004), and Accident and Emergency department attendance (HR = 1.88; 95% CI: 1.31-2.72; P < .001). However, after controlling for confounding-by-indication through PSM, BDZ exposure did not modulate the risk of any outcomes (all P > .05). In an analysis restricted to antipsychotic-naïve individuals, BDZ exposure reduced the risk of transition to psychosis numerically, although this was not statistically significant (HR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.32-1.08; P = .089).

CONCLUSIONS

BDZ exposure in CHR-P individuals was not associated with a reduction in the risk of psychosis transition or adverse clinical outcomes. Results in the whole-unmatched sample suggest BDZ prescription may be more likely in CHR-P individuals with higher symptom severity.

Network Meta-Analysis Indicates Superior Effects of Omega-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids in Preventing the Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High-Risk

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of pharmacological and nutritional interventions in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) remains elusive. This study aims to investigate the efficacy of pharmacological and nutritional interventions in CHR-P and whether these interventions can enhance the efficacy of psychological treatments.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed data from 5 databases until July 24, 2021: PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and WanFang Data. The primary outcome was the transition to psychosis. Network meta-analyses were conducted at 3 time points (6, 12, and ≥24 months) considering both pharmacological/nutritional interventions alone and its combination with psychotherapy.

RESULTS

Out of 11 417 identified references, 21 studies were included, comprising 1983 participants. CHR-P participants receiving omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids treatment were associated with a lower probability of transition compared with placebo/control at 6 months (odds ratio [OR] = 0.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = .01 to .054), 12 months (OR = 0.14, 95% CI = .03 to .66), and ≥24 months (OR = 0.16, 95% CI = .05 to .54). Moreover, risperidone plus psychotherapy was associated with a lower likelihood of transition at 6 months compared with placebo/control plus psychotherapy, but this result was not sustained over longer durations.

CONCLUSION

Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids helped in preventing transitions to psychosis compared with controls.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021256209.

The effect of duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) on the risk for hospitalization after admission to a first episode service

Engagement with a first episode-psychosis service (FES) reduces the risk of psychiatric hospitalization. However, the role of the duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) in impacting this outcome is disputed. This study aimed to examine whether DUP was an effect modifier of the post-FES reduction of risk of hospitalization, and to explore associations between patients' characteristics and hospitalization post-FES. Individuals aged 16-35 with recent onset (< 3 years) of non-affective psychosis, admitted to the Program for Specialized Treatment Early in Psychosis (STEP), a FES serving the Greater New Haven area, Connecticut, between 2014 and 2019 were included (N = 189). Medical records were queried from 2013 through 2020 for number and duration of psychiatric hospitalizations. Poisson regression models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios for hospitalization rates across all explanatory variables. Negative binomial regression was used to compare the length of stay (LOS) before vs after STEP enrollment. STEP admission was associated with a significant 90 % reduction in the frequency and duration of hospitalizations. This effect was moderated by DUP: with 30-day prolongations in components of DUP (supply, demand, and total) there was less reduction in hospitalizations and LOS after FES enrollment (p < .0001). Only DUP supply (time from first antipsychotic use to STEP admission) differentiated those who were hospitalized during the first year after STEP enrollment from those who were not (median: 35 vs. 15 weeks, p = .003). To fully harness the positive impact of FES on hospitalization, a detailed effort should be pursued to reduce all DUP components.

Baseline benzodiazepine exposure is associated with greater risk of transition in clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P): a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Emerging meta-analytical evidence indicates that baseline exposure to antipsychotics and to antidepressants in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) have opposite prognostic effects as regards imminent transition to psychosis, with antipsychotics associated with higher risk and antidepressants associated with a lower risk in comparison to not-exposed individuals. Despite their common use, baseline exposure to benzodiazepines (BDZ) in CHR-P has surprisingly received poor attention as a potential risk modulator for transition to psychosis. The current systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to fix such a knowledge gap.

METHODS

Systematic scrutiny of Medline and Cochrane library, performed up to 31 December 2022, searching for English-language studies on CHR-P reporting numeric data about the sample, the transition outcome at a predefined follow-up time and raw data on BDZ baseline exposure in relation to such outcome.

RESULTS

Of 1893 identified records, five studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The proportion of participants with exposure to BDZ at baseline ranged from 5.5% (one study) to 46.2%, with an average of 16.8%. At the end of the period of observation, i.e., the follow-up as reported in the study, 28.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 19.7-39.1%] participants developed psychosis among the BDZ-exposed against 9.3% (7.3 to 11.9%) among the controls. CHR-P participants who were already under BDZ treatment at baseline had more than double chance of transition to psychosis than CHR-P participants who were BDZ-naïve. The risk ratio (RR) was 2.42 (95% CI 1.38-4.23) in the common effects model (z = 3.09; p = 0.002), and 2.40 (1.53 to 3.77) in the random-effects model (z = 5.40; p = 0.006; tau-squared = 0.0). There was no relevant heterogeneity: Cochran's Q = 1.49; df = 4; p = 0.828; I2 = 0.0% (95% CI 0.0-79%). Quality was good in four studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Ongoing BDZ exposure at inception in CHR-P is associated with a higher risk of transition to psychosis at follow up. This meta-analytic association, which echoes a similar effect of baseline antipsychotic exposure, plausibly indicates that the clinicians' prescription of pharmacological intervention captures some form of prognostically-relevant information (e.g. an anxiety permeated mental state requiring BDZ prescription) that are not adequately encompassed by current CHR-P categorical criteria.

Effects of Benzodiazepine Exposure on Real-World Clinical Outcomes in Individuals at Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis

Background

Animal models indicate GABAergic dysfunction in the development of psychosis, and that benzodiazepine (BDZ) exposure can prevent the emergence of psychosis-relevant phenotypes. However, whether BDZ exposure influences the risk of psychosis in humans is unknown.

Methods

This observational-cohort study used electronic health record data from 818 individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) to investigate whether BDZ exposure (including hypnotics e.g., zopiclone) reduces the risk of developing psychosis and adverse clinical outcomes. Cox proportional-hazards models were employed in both the whole-unmatched sample, and a propensity score matched (PSM) subsample.

Results

567 CHR-P individuals were included after data cleaning (105 BDZ-exposed, 462 BDZ-unexposed). 306 (54%) individuals were male, and the mean age was 22.3 years (SD 4.9). The BDZ-exposed and BDZ-unexposed groups differed on several demographic and clinical characteristics, including psychotic symptom severity. In the whole-unmatched sample, BDZ exposure was associated with increased risk of transition to psychosis (HR=1.61; 95%CI:1.03-2.52; P=0.037), psychiatric hospital admission (HR=1.93; 95%CI:1.13-3.29; P=0.017), home visit (HR=1.64; 95%CI:1.18-2.28; P=0.004), and A&E attendance (HR=1.88; 95%CI:1.31-2.72; P<0.001). However, after controlling for confounding-by-indication through PSM, BDZ exposure did not modulate the risk of any outcomes (all P>0.05). In analysis restricted to antipsychotic-naïve individuals, BDZ exposure reduced the risk of transition to psychosis at trend-level (HR=0.59; 95%CI:0.32-1.08; P=0.089).

Conclusions

BDZ exposure in CHR-P individuals was not associated with a reduction in the risk of psychosis transition or other adverse clinical outcomes. Results in the whole-unmatched sample suggest BDZ prescription may be more likely in CHR-P individuals with higher symptom severity.

Do antidepressants prevent transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR-P)? Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Emerging meta-analytical evidence indicates that baseline exposure to antipsychotics in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) is associated with a higher risk of an imminent transition to psychosis. Despite their tolerability profile and potential beneficial effects, baseline exposure to antidepressants (AD) in CHR-P has surprisingly received far less attention as a potential risk modulator for transition to psychosis. The current systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to fix such a knowledge gap.

METHODS

Systematic scrutiny of Medline and Cochrane library, performed up to 1 August 2021, searching for English-language studies on CHR-P reporting numeric data about the sample, the transition outcome at a predefined follow-up time and raw data on AD baseline exposure in relation to such outcome.

RESULTS

Of 1942 identified records, 16 studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. 26% of the participants were already exposed to AD at baseline; at the end of the follow-up 13.5% (95% CI 10.2-17.1%) of them (n = 448) transitioned to psychosis against 21.0% (18.9 to 23.3%) of non-AD exposed CHR-P (n = 1371). CHR-P participants who were already under AD treatment at baseline had a lower risk of transition than non-AD exposed CHR-P. The RR was 0.71 (95% CI 0.56-0.90) in the fixed-effects model (z = -2.79; p = 0.005), and 0.78 (0.58-1.05) in the random-effects model (z = -1.77; p = 0.096; tau-squared = 0.059). There was no relevant heterogeneity (Cochran's Q = 18.45; df = 15; p = 0.239; I2 = 18.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Ongoing AD exposure at inception in CHR-P is associated to a reduced risk of transition to psychosis at follow up.

Do the Components of Attenuated Positive Symptoms Truly Represent One Construct?

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESES

Psychosis-risk inventories, like the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS), utilize symptom components and coalesce the information into a single-severity rating. These components include frequency, duration, in-the-moment conviction, retrospective insight, distress, and effect on social/role functioning. While combining components distills a great deal of important information into one practical symptom rating, this approach may mask important details of the greater clinical picture.

STUDY DESIGN

Individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (n = 115) were assessed with the SIPS Score Separable Components (SSSC) scale, created to accompany the SIPS positive items by dividing each item into the 7 components identified above. The latent structure of the SSSC was identified with an exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The factors were followed up with validation analyses including hypothesized cognitive, functioning, and symptom measures. Finally, clinical utility analyses were conducted to understand relationships between psychosis risk and common comorbidities.

STUDY RESULTS

EFA revealed that the SSSC had 3 interpretable factors with the appropriate fit (rmsr = 0.018, TLI = 0.921): Conviction (in-the-moment conviction, retrospective insight), Distress-Impairment (distress, social/role functioning), and Frequency/Duration (frequency, duration). Conviction was minimally valid, Distress-Impairment had excellent validity, and Frequency/Duration was not related to any of the candidate validators. Conviction significantly predicted elevated psychosis risk. Distress-Impairment was related to common comorbid symptoms. Notably, the factors associated more strongly with clinical features than the traditional SIPS scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The SSSC offers a supplemental approach to single-severity ratings, providing useful clinical insight, mechanistic understanding, and the potential for better capturing heterogeneity in this population.

Sampling from different populations: Sociodemographic, clinical, and functional differences between samples of first episode psychosis individuals and clinical high-risk individuals who progressed to psychosis

Over the past two decades, research and clinical resources on clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis have both expanded, with goals to better understanding risk and protective factors on the course of illness and inform early intervention efforts. However, some studies have highlighted potential sampling bias among CHR research studies, raising questions about generalizability of findings and inequitable access to early detection and intervention. The current study sought to explore these questions by comparing 94 participants in a CHR longitudinal monitoring study across North America (NAPLS-2) who converted to syndromal psychosis over the course of the study (CHR-CV) to 171 participants who presented for treatment at a localized first-episode psychosis service (FES) after converting. CHR-CV participants were significantly more likely to be White and have a college-educated parent, while FES participants were more likely to be Black and first- or second-generation immigrants. On average, CHR-CV participants were younger at onset of attenuated positive symptoms, had a longer period of attenuated symptoms prior to conversion, and were more likely to be treated with antipsychotics prior to conversion compared to those in FES programs. After controlling for time since conversion, CHR-CV participants had higher global functioning and were less likely to have experienced recent psychiatric hospitalization. Findings suggest that CHR research and FES clinics may be sampling from different populations, although conclusions are limited by inconsistent sampling frames and methods. Integrated early detection that targets defined geographic catchments may deliver more epidemiologically representative samples to both CHR research and FES.

The temporal dynamics of transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR-P) shows negative prognostic effects of baseline antipsychotic exposure: a meta-analysis

Meta-analytic evidence indicates that baseline exposure to antipsychotics (AP) in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) is associated with an even higher risk of transition to psychosis. However, the temporal dynamics of such prognostic effect have not been clarified yet. This study was therefore designed to address this knowledge gap. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of all longitudinal studies published up to 31 December 2021 on CHR-P individuals identified according to a validated diagnostic procedure and reporting numeric data of transition to psychosis according to baseline antipsychotic exposure. 28 studies covering a total of 2405 CHR-P were included. 554 (23.0%) were exposed to AP at baseline, whereas 1851 (77.0%) were not. At follow-up (12 to 72 months), 182 individuals among AP-exposed (32.9%; 95% CI: 29.4% to 37.8%) and 382 among AP-naive CHR-P (20.6%; 18.8% to 22.8%) developed psychosis. Transition rates increased over time, with the best-fit for an ascending curve peaking at 24 months and reaching then a plateau, with a further increase at 48 months. Baseline AP-exposed CHR-P had higher transition risk at 12 months and then again at 36 and 48 months, with an overall higher risk of transition (fixed-effect model: risk ratio = 1.56 [95% CI: 1.32-1.85]; z = 5.32; p < 0.0001; Random-effect model: risk ratio = 1.56 [95% CI: 1.07-2.26]; z = 2.54; p = 0.0196). In conclusion, the temporal dynamics of transition to psychosis differ in AP-exposed vs. AP-naive CHR-P. Baseline AP exposure in CHR-P is associated with a persistently higher risk of transition at follow up, supporting the rationale for more stringent clinical monitoring in AP-exposed CHR-P. The insufficiency of more granular information in available primary literature (e.g., temporal and quantitative details of AP exposure as well as psychopathological dimensions in CHR-P) did not allow the testing of causal hypotheses on this negative prognostic association.

Machine Learning and Non-Affective Psychosis: Identification, Differential Diagnosis, and Treatment

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review will cover the most relevant findings on the use of machine learning (ML) techniques in the field of non-affective psychosis, by summarizing the studies published in the last three years focusing on illness detection and treatment.

RECENT FINDINGS

Multiple ML tools that include mostly supervised approaches such as support vector machine, gradient boosting, and random forest showed promising results by applying these algorithms to various sources of data: socio-demographic information, EEG, language, digital content, blood biomarkers, neuroimaging, and electronic health records. However, the overall performance, in the binary classification case, varied from 0.49, which is to be considered very low (i.e., noise), to over 0.90. These results are fully justified by different factors, some of which may be attributable to the preprocessing of the data, the wide variety of the data, and the a-priori setting of hyperparameters. One of the main limitations of the field is the lack of stratification of results based on biological sex, given that psychosis presents differently in men and women; hence, the necessity to tailor identification tools and data analytic strategies. Timely identification and appropriate treatment are key factors in reducing the consequences of psychotic disorders. In recent years, the emergence of new analytical tools based on artificial intelligence such as supervised ML approaches showed promises as a potential breakthrough in this field. However, ML applications in everyday practice are still in its infancy.

Early Intervention Services for Schizophrenia: Looking Back and Looking Ahead

This invited commentary provides a conceptual history of modern early intervention services, briefly reviews the accomplishments of an international clinical and research community, and offers proposals for how such services might participate in the next generation of progress. In keeping with the theme of this column, we make the argument that such services should orient around bi-directional knowledge translation across basic, clinical and policy domains.

COX-2 pathway is upregulated in ultra-high risk individuals for psychosis

BACKGROUND

The identification of Ultra-High Risk (UHR) individuals is thought to be useful for early intervention to improve psychosis outcomes. However, transition rates vary widely, and there is an effort to make these criteria more specific and accurate. Neuroinflammation has been discussed in the pathophysiology of psychosis. The metabolism of eicosanoids is a key process in inflammatory states. Therefore, we investigated whether the study of the inflammatory COX-2 pathway through the quantification of the eicosanoid levels can be a useful approach for the characterisation of UHR individuals.

METHODS

One hundred and twenty-two individuals were included in this study (67 UHR and 55 controls) based on performance on the Prodromal Questionnaire. UHR status was assessed by Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS). We determined the levels of Prostaglandin F_2α (PGF_2α), Prostaglandin E₂ (PGE₂), and Thromboxane B₂ (TxB₂) in plasma using ELISA assays.

RESULTS

Concentrations of PGE₂ and TxB₂ were increased in UHR compared to controls (p = 0.01 and p < 0.05, respectively). PGE₂ and PGF_2α levels were correlated to negative symptoms (p < 0.01 and p < 0.05), whereas TxB₂ correlated with positive symptoms (p = 0.05) as assessed by the SIPS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that overactivation of the COX-2 pathway may be related to an increased risk for psychosis. However, our data do not allow us to draw conclusions related to the cause-effect mechanisms. Future studies should determine whether the levels of the eicosanoids have a predictive value for the transition of UHR to frank psychosis.

Timing of cannabis exposure relative to prodrome and psychosis onset in a community-based first episode psychosis sample

Cannabis has been implicated as both a potential cause and adverse prognostic factor in psychotic disorders. Investigating the contributory role of cannabis toward the overall burden of psychotic illnesses may represent an important step toward psychosis prevention and treatment. The current study samples consecutive admissions (N = 246) to two community based first-episode psychosis services to characterize timing of cannabis use relative to psychosis and attenuated symptom onset, differences between those with and without cannabis exposure, and the association of age at first cannabis exposure with clinical and demographic variables. Both cannabis exposure (78%) and cannabis use disorders (47%) were highly prevalent at admission. In 94% of participants, cannabis use preceded the onset of both attenuated and full-threshold psychosis symptoms by several years. Earlier age at first exposure to cannabis was associated with younger age at prodrome and psychosis onset, worse premorbid functioning, and greater severity of cannabis use disorder at admission. The timing of first exposure to cannabis may have individual prognostic as well as public health significance. Documenting the prevalence and impact of cannabis use in early psychosis samples, as well as the overall incidence of psychotic disorders, will be of vital public health significance as the United States enacts cannabis legalization and cannabis products become more widely available.

Reducing the Duration of Untreated Psychosis (DUP) in a US Community: A Quasi-Experimental Trial

Objective

Duration of Untreated Psychosis (DUP) remains unacceptably long and limits effectiveness of care. To determine whether an early detection campaign (“Mindmap”) can reduce DUP in a US community setting.

Methods

In this nonrandomized controlled trial, Mindmap targeted the catchment of one specialty first-episode service or FES (STEP, Greater New Haven) from 2015 to 2019, while usual detection efforts continued at a control FES (PREP, Greater Boston). Mindmap targeted diverse sources of delay through mass & social media messaging, professional outreach & detailing, and rapid enrollment of referrals. Both FES recruited 16–35 years old with psychosis onset ≤3 years. Outcome measures included DUP-Total (onset of psychosis to FES enrollment), DUP-Demand (onset of psychosis to first antipsychotic medication), and DUP-Supply (first antipsychotic medication to FES enrollment).

Results

171 subjects were recruited at STEP and 75 at PREP. Mindmap was associated with an increase in the number of referrals and in efficiency of engagement at STEP. Pre-campaign DUP (2014–2015) was equivalent, while Mindmap was associated with DUP reductions at STEP but not PREP. DUP-Total fell significantly in both the first and the second quartile (11.5 and 58.5 days reduction per campaign year, respectively). DUP-Demand and DUP-Supply fell in the third quartiles only (46.3 and 70.3 days reduction per campaign year, respectively). No reductions were detectable across all quartiles at PREP, but between site comparisons were not significant.

Conclusions

This is the first controlled demonstration of community DUP reduction in the US, and can inform future early detection efforts across diverse settings.

Probability of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Estimating the current likelihood of transitioning from a clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) to psychosis holds paramount importance for preventive care and applied research.

OBJECTIVE

To quantitatively examine the consistency and magnitude of transition risk to psychosis in individuals at CHR-P.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and Web of Science databases until November 1, 2020. Manual search of references from previous articles.

STUDY SELECTION

Longitudinal studies reporting transition risks in individuals at CHR-P.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Meta-analysis compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) reporting guidelines; independent data extraction, manually and through digitalization of Kaplan-Meier curves.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES

Primary effect size was cumulative risk of transition to psychosis at 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, and more than 4 years' follow-up, estimated using the numbers of individuals at CHR-P transitioning to psychosis at each time point. These analyses were complemented by meta-analytical Kaplan-Meier curves and speed of transition to psychosis (hazard rate). Random-effects meta-analysis, between-study heterogeneity analysis, study quality assessment, and meta-regressions were conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 130 studies and 9222 individuals at CHR-P were included. The mean (SD) age was 20.3 (4.4) years, and 5100 individuals (55.3%) were male. The cumulative transition risk was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.07-0.10; k = 37; n = 6485) at 0.5 years, 0.15 (95% CI, 0.13-0.16; k = 53; n = 7907) at 1 year, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 30; n = 5488) at 1.5 years, 0.19 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 44; n = 7351) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.21-0.29; k = 19; n = 3114) at 2.5 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.22-0.29; k = 29; n = 4029) at 3 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.23-0.30; k = 16; n = 2926) at 4 years, and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.20-0.37; k = 14; n = 2301) at more than 4 years. The cumulative Kaplan-Meier transition risk was 0.08 (95% CI, 0.08-0.09; n = 4860) at 0.5 years, 0.14 (95% CI, 0.13-0.15; n = 3408) at 1 year, 0.17 (95% CI, 0.16-0.19; n = 2892) at 1.5 years, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.19-0.21; n = 2357) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.23-0.26; n = 1444) at 2.5 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.25-0.28; n = 1029) at 3 years, 0.28 (95% CI, 0.26-0.29; n = 808) at 3.5 years, 0.29 (95% CI, 0.27-0.30; n = 737) at 4 years, and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.32-0.38; n = 114) at 10 years. The hazard rate only plateaued at 4 years' follow-up. Meta-regressions showed that a lower proportion of female individuals (β = -0.02; 95% CI, -0.04 to -0.01) and a higher proportion of brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (β = 0.02; 95% CI, 0.01-0.03) were associated with an increase in transition risk. Heterogeneity across the studies was high (I2 range, 77.91% to 95.73%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this meta-analysis, 25% of individuals at CHR-P developed psychosis within 3 years. Transition risk continued increasing in the long term. Extended clinical monitoring and preventive care may be beneficial in this patient population.

First help-seeking attempt before and after psychosis onset: measures of delay and aversive pathways to care

PURPOSE

Delay in receiving effective treatment for psychosis adversely impacts outcomes. We investigated the timing of the first help-seeking attempt in individuals with recent onset non-affective psychosis by comparing those who sought help during the prodrome to those who sought help after psychosis onset across sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, overall functioning, and occurrence of aversive events during their pathways to care.

METHODS

Patients were admitted from February 1st, 2014 to January 31st, 2019 to the Program for Specialized Treatment Early in Psychosis (STEP) in New Haven, CT. Psychosis-onset date was ascertained using the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes. Key dates before and after psychosis onset, along with initiators and aversive events, were collected via semi-structured interview.

RESULTS

Within 168 individuals, 82% had their first help-seeking episode after psychosis onset and did not differ in terms of sociodemographic characteristics from prodrome help seekers. When the first help-seeking episode started before (i.e., during prodrome) vs after psychosis onset it was mostly initiated by patients vs family members (Cramer's V = 0.23, p = 0.031) and led to a faster prescription of an antipsychotic once full-blown psychosis emerged (time to antipsychotic since psychosis onset = 21 vs 56 days, p = 0.03). No difference in aversive events before STEP enrollment was detected across groups.

CONCLUSION

Help seeking during the prodrome is associated with faster initiation of antipsychotic treatment and is more likely to be self-initiated, compared to help seeking after psychosis onset. Early detection efforts that target prodromal samples may improve the length and experience of pathways to care.

Negative Prognostic Effect of Baseline Antipsychotic Exposure in Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P): Is Pre-Test Risk Enrichment the Hidden Culprit?

INTRODUCTION

Sample enrichment is a key factor in contemporary early-detection strategies aimed at the identification of help-seekers at increased risk of imminent transition to psychosis. We undertook a meta-analytic investigation to ascertain the role of sample enrichment in the recently highlighted negative prognostic effect of baseline antipsychotic (AP) exposure in clinical high-risk (CHR-P) of psychosis individuals.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis of all published studies on CHR-P were identified according to a validated diagnostic procedure. The outcome was the proportion of transition to psychosis, which was calculated according to the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation.

RESULTS

Thirty-three eligible studies were identified, including 16 samples with details on AP exposure at baseline and 17 samples with baseline AP exposure as exclusion criterion for enrollment. Those with baseline exposure to AP (n = 395) had higher transition rates (29.9%; 95% CI: 25.1%-34.8%) than those without baseline exposure to AP in the same study (n = 1289; 17.2%; 15.1%-19.4%) and those coming from samples that did not include people who were exposed to AP at baseline (n = 2073; 16.2%; 14.6%-17.8%; P < .05 in both the fixed-effects and the random-effects models). Heterogeneity within studies was substantial, with values above 75% in all comparisons.

CONCLUSIONS

Sample enrichment is not a plausible explanation for the higher risk of transition to psychosis of CHR-P individuals who were already exposed to AP at the enrollment in specialized early-detection programs. Baseline exposure to AP at CHR-P assessment is a major index of enhanced, imminent risk of psychosis.

Third external replication of an individualised transdiagnostic prediction model for the automatic detection of individuals at risk of psychosis using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Primary indicated prevention is a key target for reducing the incidence and burden of schizophrenia and related psychotic disorders. An individualised, clinically-based transdiagnostic model for the detection of individuals at risk of psychosis has been developed and validated in two large, urban healthcare providers. We tested its external validity in a geographically and demographically different non-urban population.

METHOD

Retrospective EHR cohort study. All individuals accessing secondary healthcare provided by Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust between 1st January 2011 and 30th November 2019 and receiving a primary index diagnosis of a non-psychotic or non-organic mental disorder were considered eligible. The previously developed model was applied to this database and its external prognostic accuracy was measured with Harrell's C.

FINDINGS

The study included n = 33,710 eligible individuals, with an average age of 27.7 years (SD = 19.8), mostly white (92.0%) and female (57.3%). The mean follow-up was 1863.9 days (SD = 948.9), with 868 transitions to psychosis and a cumulative incidence of psychosis at 6 years of 2.9% (95%CI: 2.7-3.1). Compared to the urban development database, Oxford Health was characterised by a relevant case mix, lower incidence of psychosis, different distribution of baseline predictors, higher proportion of white females, and a lack of specialised clinical services for at risk individuals. Despite these differences the model retained an adequate prognostic performance (Harrell's C = 0.79, 95%CI: 0.78-0.81), with no major miscalibration.

INTERPRETATION

The transdiagnostic, individualised, clinically-based risk calculator is transportable outside urban healthcare providers. Further research should test transportability of this risk prediction model in an international setting.

Establishing a clinical service to prevent psychosis: What, how and when? Systematic review

The first rate-limiting step to successfully translate prevention of psychosis in to clinical practice is to establish specialised Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) services. This study systematises the knowledge regarding CHR-P services and provides guidelines for translational implementation. We conducted a PRISMA/MOOSE-compliant (PROSPERO-CRD42020163640) systematic review of Web of Science to identify studies until 4/05/2020 reporting on CHR-P service configuration, outreach strategy and referrals, service user characteristics, interventions, and outcomes. Fifty-six studies (1998-2020) were included, encompassing 51 distinct CHR-P services across 15 countries and a catchment area of 17,252,666 people. Most services (80.4%) consisted of integrated multidisciplinary teams taking care of CHR-P and other patients. Outreach encompassed active (up to 97.6%) or passive (up to 63.4%) approaches: referrals came mostly (90%) from healthcare agencies. CHR-P individuals were more frequently males (57.2%). Most (70.6%) services accepted individuals aged 12-35 years, typically assessed with the CAARMS/SIPS (83.7%). Baseline comorbid mental conditions were reported in two-third (69.5%) of cases, and unemployment in one third (36.6%). Most services provided up to 2-years (72.4%), of clinical monitoring (100%), psychoeducation (81.1%), psychosocial support (73%), family interventions (73%), individual (67.6%) and group (18.9%) psychotherapy, physical health interventions (37.8%), antipsychotics (87.1%), antidepressants (74.2%), anxiolytics (51.6%), and mood stabilisers (38.7%). Outcomes were more frequently ascertained clinically (93.0%) and included: persistence of symptoms/comorbidities (67.4%), transition to psychosis (53.5%), and functional status (48.8%). We provide ten practical recommendations for implementation of CHR-P services. Health service knowledge summarised by the current study will facilitate translational efforts for implementation of CHR-P services worldwide.

Prediction and Prevention in the Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis Paradigm: A Review of the Current Status and Recommendations for Future Directions of Inquiry

Prediction and prevention of negative clinical and functional outcomes represent the two primary objectives of research conducted within the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm. Several multivariable "risk calculator" models have been developed to predict the likelihood of developing psychosis, although these models have not been translated to clinical use. Overall, less progress has been made in developing effective interventions. In this paper, we review the existing literature on both prediction and prevention in the CHR-P paradigm and, primarily, outline ways in which expanding and combining these paths of inquiry could lead to a greater improvement in individual outcomes for those most at risk.

Meta-analyzing the prevalence and prognostic effect of antipsychotic exposure in clinical high-risk (CHR): when things are not what they seem

BACKGROUND

The clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis paradigm is changing psychiatric practice. However, a widespread confounder, i.e. baseline exposure to antipsychotics (AP) in CHR samples, is systematically overlooked. Such exposure might mitigate the initial clinical presentation, increase the heterogeneity within CHR populations, and confound the evaluation of transition to psychosis at follow-up. This is the first meta-analysis examining the prevalence and the prognostic impact on transition to psychosis of ongoing AP treatment at baseline in CHR cohorts.

METHODS

Major databases were searched for articles published until 20 April 2020. The variance-stabilizing Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation was used to estimate prevalence. The binary outcome of transition to psychosis by group was estimated with risk ratio (RR) and the inverse variance method was used for pooling.

RESULTS

Fourteen studies were eligible for qualitative synthesis, including 1588 CHR individuals. Out of the pooled CHR sample, 370 individuals (i.e. 23.3%) were already exposed to AP at the time of CHR status ascription. Transition toward full-blown psychosis at follow-up intervened in 112 (29%; 95% CI 24-34%) of the AP-exposed CHR as compared to 235 (16%; 14-19%) of the AP-naïve CHR participants. AP-exposed CHR had higher RR of transition to psychosis (RR = 1.47; 95% CI 1.18-1.83; z = 3.48; p = 0.0005), without influence by age, gender ratio, overall sample size, duration of the follow-up, or quality of the studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline AP exposure in CHR samples is substantial and is associated with a higher imminent risk of transition to psychosis. Therefore, such exposure should be regarded as a non-negligible red flag for clinical risk management.

Real-world long-term outcomes in individuals at clinical risk for psychosis: The case for extending duration of care

BACKGROUND

Most services for individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) provide short-term clinical care. This study determines the real-world and long-term clinical outcomes beyond transition to psychosis in a large cohort of CHR-P individuals.

METHOD

Retrospective RECORD-compliant real-world Electronic Health Records (EHR) cohort study in secondary mental health care (the South London and the Maudsley -SLaM- NHS Foundation Trust). All CHR-P patients accessing the CHR-P service at SLaM in the period 2001-2018 were included. Main outcomes were long-term cumulative risk of first: (i) developing an ICD-10 psychotic disorder (primary outcome), receiving a treatment with (iia) antipsychotic medication, (iib) benzodiazepines, (iic) other psychotropic medications, (iid) psychotherapy, receiving an (iiia) informal or (iiib) compulsory admission into a mental health hospital, and the time to these events; (iiic) number of days spent in hospital and (iv) cumulative risk of death for any reason and age/gender Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR). Data were extracted from the EHR and analysed with Kaplan Meier failure functions, Cox and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions.

FINDINGS

600 CHR-P patients (80.43% Attenuated Psychotic Symptoms, APS; 18.06%, Brief and Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms, BLIPS, 1.51% Genetic Risk and Deterioration Syndrome) were included (mean age 22.63 years, range 13-36; 55.33% males; 46.44% white, mean duration of untreated attenuated psychotic symptoms 676.32 days, 1105.40 SD). The cumulative risk to first psychosis was 0.365 (95%CI 0.302-0.437) at 11 years; first antipsychotic 0.777 (95%CI 0.702-0.844) at 9 years; first benzodiazepine 0.259 (95%CI 0.183-0.359) at 12 years; first other types of medications 0.630 (95%CI 0.538-0.772) at 9 years; first psychotherapy 0.814 (95%CI 0.764-0.859) at 9 years; first informal admission 0.378 (95%CI 0.249-0.546) at 12 years; first compulsory admission 0.251 (95%CI 0.175-0.352) at 12 years; those admitted spent on average 94.84 (SD=169.94) days in hospital; the cumulative risk of death for any reason was 0.036 (95%CI 0.012-0.103) at 9 years, with an SMR of 3.9 (95%CI 1.20-6.6). Compared to APS, BLIPS had a higher risk of developing psychosis, being admitted compulsorily into hospital, receiving antipsychotics and benzodiazepines and lower probability of receiving psychotherapy. Other prognostic factors of long-term outcomes included age, symptoms severity, duration of untreated attenuated psychotic symptoms, ethnicity and employment status.

INTERPRETATION

Duration of care provided by CHR-P services should be expanded to address long-term real-world outcomes.

FUNDING

This study was supported by the King's College London Confidence in Concept award from the Medical Research Council (MRC) (MC_PC_16048) to PF-P. GSP is supported by the Alicia Koplowitz Foundation. HB is supported by a National Institute for Health Research Maudsley Biomedical Research Centre studentship.