A new approach to modeling the sediment retention service (InVEST 3.0): Case study of the Cape Fear catchment, North Carolina, USA

Uncertainty analysis and parameter optimization of a water yield ecosystem service model: A case study of the Qilian Mountains, China

Integrating accurate outcomes of ecosystem service assessments into decision analysis is crucial for an efficient environmental management. However, there are still gaps in our knowledge about estimating and reducing parameter uncertainty in ecosystem service assessments. These gaps may affect the reliability of assessment results and potentially lead to bias or even errors in decision-making. Our study conducted an uncertainty analysis and parameter optimization of the InVEST water yield model in the Qilian Mountains region. We identified sensitive parameters using a global sensitivity analysis and quantified the associated uncertainty using the Monte Carlo method. To optimize these parameters, we applied the Markov chain Monte Carlo method using runoff data from 2006 to 2018 in the trial subbasins. Additionally, we validated the robustness of the optimized parameters in other additional subbasins using runoff data from 2008 to 2018. The results revealed that parameters related to climatic factors (such as annual precipitation and annual reference evapotranspiration) were more sensitive than those influenced by both climate and human activities (such as the vegetation evapotranspiration coefficient). The uncertainty associated with the sensitive parameters was nearly equal to that associated with all the parameters combined, indicating that these sensitive parameters were the primary sources of overall uncertainty. Moreover, the estimated water yields obtained via the optimized parameters were generally closely related to the runoff data from the trial subbasins, especially the China meteorological forcing dataset/Penman-Monteith combination, which achieved an average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.71. Additionally, validation in other subbasins confirmed the robustness and transferability of the optimized parameters. Nevertheless, the source and accuracy of these sensitive parameters are critical, and further validation in other regions is needed. This work underscores the importance of rigorous uncertainty analysis and parameter optimization in improving ecosystem service assessments for better decision-making.

Modeling future sediment retention service in the Bagh-e-Shadi Forest protected area using InVEST and the ACCESS-ESM1-5 climate model

Assessing the impact of climate change on water-related ecosystem services (ES) in Protected Areas (PAs) is essential for developing soil and water conservation strategies that promote sustainability and restore ES. However, the application of ES research in Protected Area (PA) management remains ambiguous and has notable shortcomings. This study primarily aimed to assess the SDR-InVEST (Sediment Delivery Ratio-Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model for estimating ES, including soil loss, sediment export, and sediment retention, under various climate change scenarios from 1997 to 2100 in the data-scarce region of the Bagh-e-Shadi Forest PA. Bagh-e-Shadi Forest PA, a forest zone in Yazd Province, Iran, has the highest incidence of fire occurrences, leading to accelerated soil erosion and degradation. Our study is pioneering in the Bagh-e-Shadi Forest for employing the InVEST model, particularly the SDR model, to investigate the effects of climate change on sediment load, soil loss, and sediment retention. Additionally, this study focused on sensitivity analysis to individually assess model parameter uncertainties and highlighted the calibration process. By incorporating the latest IPCC emission scenarios, it addresses a critical research gap in the study area. Sensitivity analyses identified Borselli IC0, forest cover factor, and Borselli k (Kb) as the most influential parameters for sediment export. IC0 and kb are calibration factors that shape the sigmoid function in the SDR-IC relationship. From 1997 to 2021, our findings indicated that the study area experienced an average annual soil loss of 77.1 t ha-1 year-1. Additionally, the average sediment export was 0.08 t ha-1 year-1, while sediment retention averaged 2.2 t ha-1 year-1. The results indicated an increasing impact on ES due to climate change, primarily driven by projected increases in precipitation. Our findings showed that sediment yield export is projected to increase the most under the SSP585 scenario during the period 2041-2060, with a rise of 148.02% compared to baseline conditions. Sediment retention is expected to increase from 25,436.25 t year-1 in the baseline scenario to 63,128.63 t year-1 under SSP585 during the same period. The minimum increase in soil loss is projected to be 40.6% under the SSP126 scenario during the period 2021-2040. The quantified changes in ES provisioning will enhance future land use planning, especially for managing the Bagh-e-Shadi Forest.

Does land use change decline the regional ecosystem health maintenance? Case study in subtropical coastal region, Fuzhou, China

Regional environmental management aims to maintain or improve regional ecosystem health (REH) and prevent its degradation over time. In the context of rapid urbanization and global sustainability over the last two decades, has land use change resulted in a deterioration of REH? By using the improved REH framework model as Pressure-Vigor-Organization-Resilience-Service (P-VOR-S), this paper proposed Regional Ecosystem Health Maintenance (REHM) as a dynamic quantitative indicator of REH, and detected REHM as well as its response to land use change in the coastal city of Fuzhou, China during 2003-2018. The results showed that: (1) During 2003-2018, the average REH gradually decreased in spite of the 62.50-67.55% area coverage of the REH "well" level. The REHM "maintenance" level covered 9764.69 km2 (83.74%), while the REHM "degradation" and "improvement" covered only 1485.17 km2 (12.74%) and 410.99 km2 (3.52%), respectively. (2) The REHM "degradation" in Fuzhou was predominantly caused by the conversion of forest to cultivated land and cultivated land to construction land, as well as the conversion of forest and water to construction land. (3) The REHM map highlighted the degraded areas as hotspots for environmental management concerns, and the area of REHM "degradation" or "improvement" could be served as key indicator for regional environmental management and spatial land planning.

Utilizing InVEST ecosystem services model combined with deep learning and fallback bargaining for effective sediment retention in Northern Iran

This study aimed to integrate game theory and deep learning algorithms with the InVEST Ecosystem Services Model (IESM) for Sediment Retention (SR) modeling in the Kasilian watershed, Iran. The Kasilian watershed is characterized by multiple sub-watersheds, which vary in their environmental conditions and SR potential, with a total of 19 sub-watersheds. The research was carried out in four phases: mapping SR using the IESM, implementing the Fallback bargaining algorithm based on game theory, applying deep learning algorithms (CNN, LSTM, RNN), and performing statistical analysis for optimal model selection. Based on the results, the analysis of geo-environmental criteria indicated that sub-watersheds with poor conditions regarding rain erosivity, soil erodibility, LS, elevation, and land use faced greater challenges in SR. Utilizing the Fallback bargaining algorithm for sub-watershed prioritization revealed that sub-watershed 5 emerged as having the highest SR potential due to high rain erosivity and a significant LS factor. Spatial SR mapping via game theory algorithm demonstrated that northern sub-watersheds in the Kasilian watershed had greater SR potential. Deep learning algorithms were also utilized for SR distribution modeling, where the RNN model was deemed optimal, yielding error statistics of MAE: 0.05, MSE: 0.04, R2: 0.79, RMSE: 0.20, and AUC: 0.97. The SR distribution patterns demonstrated that RNN and LSTM algorithms exhibited similar classification outcomes, differing from those of the CNN algorithm. The prioritization of sub-watersheds using various approaches revealed that the Fallback bargaining algorithm showed a 47% similarity with the InVEST model results. In contrast, deep learning models such as CNN, LSTM, and ARANN exhibited 84%, 79%, and 79% similarity, respectively. These findings supported SR zonation maps, reinforcing that deep learning models outperformed the game theory algorithm. The Alpha Diversity Indices (ADI) confirmed that the outputs from the LSTM and RNN models showed identical changes across all indices. Minimal variations in the other approaches suggested that all five methods yielded similar results based on diversity indices (including Taxa, Dominance, Simpson, and Equitability), indicating no significant differences among them when compared to the InVEST model in sediment modeling.

A framework for validating watershed ecosystem service models in the United States using long-term water quality data: Applications with the InVEST Nutrient Delivery (NDR) model in Puerto Rico

Modeling of watershed Ecosystem Services (ES) processes has increased greatly in recent years, potentially improving environmental management and decision-making by describing the value of nature. ES models may be sensitive to different conditions and, therefore, should ideally be validated against observed data for their use as a decision-support instrument. However, outcomes from such ES modeling are barely validated, making it difficult to assess uncertainties associated with the modeling and justify their actual usefulness to develop generalizable management recommendations. This study proposes a framework for the systematic validation of one of such tools, the InVEST Nutrient Delivery Model (NDR) for nutrient retention estimates. The framework is divided into three stages: 1) running the NDR model inputs, processes, and outputs; 2) building a long-term reference dataset from open access water quality observations; and 3) using the reference data for model calibration and validation. We applied this framework to twenty watersheds in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, where data availability resembles thar of watersheds across the United States. Long-term water quality data from monitoring stations facilitated model calibration and validation. Our framework provided a reproducible method to linking the vast monitoring network in the U.S. and its territories for evaluating the InVEST's NDR model performance. Beyond the framework development, this study found that the InVEST NDR model explained 62.7 % and 79.3 % of the variance in the total nitrogen and total phosphorus between 2000 and 2022, respectively, supporting the suitability of the model for watershed scale ecosystem services assessment. The findings can also serve as a reference to support the use of InVEST for other locations in the tropics without publically available monitoring data.

Assessing sediment dynamics and retention services in the vulnerable mountain ecosystem of the Indian Himalayas

Sediment loss and export pose significant global environmental issues, profoundly affecting water quality, soil fertility, and ecosystem stability, particularly in vulnerable mountain ecosystems like the Indian Himalayas. The present study used remote sensing data and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) sediment delivery ratio (SDR) model to analyze spatial-temporal variations in soil loss (SL), sediment export (SE), and sediment retention (SR) capabilities in the South Shimla watershed, Himachal Pradesh, India, from 1993 to 2023. The findings showed significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC): evergreen forest and scrub land decreased sharply by 11.53% and 36.43%, respectively, while agricultural areas and built-up areas increased notably by 71.16% and 215.76%, respectively. Despite a decline of 19.18% in SL and 24.43% in SE, sediment loss and export varied across the study area, highlighting the heterogeneous nature of sediment dynamics. The overall retention capacity increased by 2.59%, with scrub forests playing a critical role in SR, while built-up areas showed the lowest retention. Northern and central sub-watersheds (SWs) experienced a significant decrease in retention capacity (from - 1.92 to - 11.6%), whereas those in the southern and eastern regions saw an increase in SR (from 3.69 to 28.24%). These results underscore the complex interactions between LULC changes, sediment dynamics, and retention services, highlighting the importance of preserving natural ecosystems and informing policy for landscape-based conservation and development planning in the vulnerable Himalayan region.

Influence of large open-pit mines on the construction and optimization of urban ecological networks: A case study of Fushun City, China

Under the long-term effect of mineral resource exploitation, especially open-pit mining, ecosystems are severely disturbed. Constructing and optimizing urban ecological networks influenced by open-pit mines based on mine-city coordination helps integrate ecological restoration and the construction of urban ecological environments. We applied an InVEST model to Fushun City to evaluate urban ecosystem services under the influence of large open-pit mines. Twenty-one key patches important for maintaining landscape connectivity were screened as the ecological sources in the network, from which ecological resistance surfaces were constructed by combining the impacts of mines on the environment. Minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) and gravity models were then used to extract and classify ecological corridors favorable to species migration and diffusion. Fushun City had large spatial differences in ecosystem service functions, with high-value areas concentrated in the forest-rich Dongzhou District and the northern Shuncheng District. Under the influence of open-pit mining, the ecosystem service capacity of the region south of the Hunhe River was poor and lacked ecological sources. Urban ecological resistance surfaces reached a maximum in the open-pit mining area, and 210 ecological corridors were estimated using the MCR model, of which 46 were important. Only two corridors crossed the West and East open pit, forming two "ecological fracture surfaces." The Dongzhou and eastern Shuncheng districts had complex network structures and stable ecological environments. In contrast, the central and southern parts of Fushun City lacked ecological corridors owing to the influence of mining pits and gangue mountains, had simple network structures, and low connectivities with other sources. Combined with Fushun City's development plan, we propose that ecological network optimization should add new ecological source sites, reconstruct and repair ecological corridors, and upgrade ecological breakpoints. This study provides reference and basis for ecological network research in mining cities influenced by open-pit mines.

How does cultivated land fragmentation affect soil erosion: Evidence from the Yangtze River Basin in China

Reducing soil erosion (SE) is crucial for achieving harmony between human society and the ecological environment. The cultivated land fragmentation (CLF), directly or indirectly, alters soil structure, diminishes its water-holding capacity, and escalates the risk of SE. Scientific assessment of the effect of CLF on SE can provide new insights into controlling of SE across watersheds in China. However, few studies have quantified the effect of CLF on SE. Therefore, we utilized land use change data in the Yangtze River basin from 2000 to 2020, measuring the levels of CLF and SE using Fragstats and InVEST models. The bivariate spatial autocorrelation model was employed to reveal the spatial relationship between CLF and SE. Additionally, we constructed a spatial Durbin model and introduced the geographically and temporally weighted regression model to analyze the role of CLF on SE. The south bank of the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin exhibited high CLF and SE. The bivariate spatial autocorrelation results showed a significant positive spatial correlation between CLF and SE. The spatial Durbin model results showed that CLF had a spatial spillover effect and time lag on SE, and the effect of CLF on SE had an inverted "N" curve. The study also confirmed that last SE and neighboring SE areas influenced local SE. Currently, CLF had a negative effect on SE in the Sichuan Basin, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and the middle and lower Yangtze River Plain, and positively in Qinghai, Hunan, and Jiangxi provinces. These findings suggest that the government should enhance cross-regional and cross-sectoral cooperation and monitoring of cultivated land changes to prevent and control SE effectively.

Assessment of the impact of conservation measures by modeling soil loss in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Gullies are significant contributors to soil degradation in several regions of Brazil, including Minas Gerais, where erosion processes have caused soil loss. The characterization of erosion processes is crucial for the application of measures for recovering degraded areas and reducing erosion impacts. This study models soil loss with the use of InVEST software and assesses the impact of three different scenarios, namely (1) implementation of soil conservation practices and replacement of pasture areas for temporary agriculture, (2) reforestation of pasture areas, and (3) preservation of ciliary forests. Soil loss, sediment exportation, retention, and deposition for the present scenario (2019), as well as the three aforementioned hypothetical scenarios, were estimated. In the present scenario, the estimated mean annual soil loss was 2.75 t/ha year, with 1,449.54 t/year sediment exportation, 9,042.13 t/year retention, and 1,449.54 t/year deposition. The model predicted scenario 1 would result in 2.23 t/ha year mean annual soil loss, 1,300.59 t/year sediment exportation, 9,191.08 t/year retention, and 11,755.76 t/year deposition. Scenario 2 showed 1.92 t/ha year mean annual soil loss, 1,046.69 t/year sediment exportation, 9,444.98 t/year retention, and 10,229.77 t/year deposition, whereas the results for scenario 3 were 2.36 t/ha year, 616.65 t/year, 9,862.06 t/year, and 13,206.47 t/year, respectively. Reforestation and preservation of ciliary forests, along with soil conservation practices, were effective measures for reducing soil loss. Such findings are valuable for the management of areas degraded by erosion processes.

Fluvial flood adaptation using nature-based solutions: A comprehensive and effective assessment of hydro-meteorological risks

The growing prominence of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for disaster risk reduction (DRR) has sparked increased interest. This study is motivated by the need to establish a quantifiable and standardized method for assessing the risks mitigated by NbS in engineering applications. The goal is to establish a comprehensive and effective system framework for assessing hydro-meteorological risks related to NbS in engineering applications. The proposed framework considers flood disaster mechanisms, uncertain factors, and ecosystem services, integrating them to comprehensively assess the benefits of NbS. Specifically, 2-D hydraulic analysis and an in-house adaptive Kriging-based reliability analysis are developed and applied to establish flood prevention standards for NbS. Additionally, the InVEST toolkit is utilized to evaluate ecosystem services. To demonstrate the applicability of the framework, the Baoli River Watershed located in Pingtung County of Taiwan is selected as a case study. It is found that NbS can effectively withstand a 25-year return period flood and reduce flooding on agricultural land by 46.03 %. Furthermore, the probability of flooding decreased from 100 % to 27 % for a 20-year return period flood. NbS was found to provide approximately NT$1.20-4.65 million more in total benefit value compared to the engineering governance strategy. The supporting source codes are available at https://github.com/johnthedy/Adaptive-Kriging-Using-PSO-HHs-in-HECRAS3D.git.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Spatial Distribution of Soil Erosion under Diverse Subwatershed Based on Geospatial Perspective: A Case Study at Citarum Watershed, West Java, Indonesia

The application of remote sensing data has been significant in modeling soil erosion. However, previous studies have fallen short in elucidating and lacked an understanding of the multifactor influencing erosion. This study addresses these limitations by employing the InVEST and the Geodetector models. Specifically, it aims (1) to delineate both spatial and temporal variations in soil erosion within the Citarum watershed from 2010 to 2020, (2) to identify the key drivers of soil erosion and unravel the underlying mechanisms, and (3) to identify the high-risk zones for soil erosion. Both models consider a range of natural predictors, including topography (slope factor), climate (precipitation factor), and vegetation cover (vegetation factor). In addition, they incorporate social parameters such as income per capita and population density, which interact with the watershed's position in the downstream, middle, and upper streams. The results reveal that, over a decade, the average soil erosion increased by 15.50 × 106 tons, marking a 16.65% surge. The impact of factors varies significantly across different subwatershed areas. For example, fraction vegetation cover interactions influence upper- and middle-stream regions, while the downstream area is notably affected by precipitation interactions. The high-risk erosion areas in the watershed are primarily influenced by slope, precipitation, and fractional vegetation cover. In these areas, factors causing high erosion risks include slope, precipitation, and other environmental variables categorized into strata. The study highlights the varying influential factors in different watershed areas.

The spatio-temporal dynamics of suspended sediment sources based on a novel indexing approach combining Bayesian geochemical fingerprinting with physically-based modelling

Applications of sediment source fingerprinting continue to increase globally as the need for information to support improved management of the sediment problem persists. In our novel research, a Bayesian fingerprinting approach using MixSIAR was used with geochemical signatures, both without and with informative priors based on particle size and slope. The source estimates were compared with a newly proposed Source Sensitivity Index (SSI) and outputs from the INVEST-SDR model. MixSIAR results with informative priors indicated that agricultural and barren lands are the principal sediment sources (contributing ∼5-85% and ∼5-80% respectively during two sampling periods i.e. 2018-2019 and 2021-2022) with forests being less important. The SSI spatial maps (using % clay and slope as informative priors) showed >78% agreement with the spatial map derived using the INVEST-SDR model in terms of sub-catchment prioritization for spatial sediment source contributions. This study demonstrates the benefits of combining geochemical sediment source fingerprinting with SSI indices in larger catchments where the spatial prioritization of soil and water conservation is both challenging but warranted.

What impacts ecosystem services in tropical coastal tourism cities? A comparative case study of Haikou and Sanya, China

The ecological environment of tourism-oriented towns is attracting increasing attention. Taking the cities of Haikou and Sanya as examples, we examined changes in six ecosystem services (ES), including water conservation (WC), crop production (CP), soil retention (SR), carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and tourism recreation (TR) from 2005 to 2020. From the three perspectives of geographical environment, socioeconomic development, and tourism development force, 14 indicators were chosen to examine the impact on ES. Except for Haikou's TR, the other ES of Haikou and Sanya showed a decreasing trend from 2005 to 2020. The values of six ES were lower in coastal zones than in noncoastal zones, which were more obvious in Sanya. Specifically, the areas of low value in Sanya were concentrated in the coastal region, and the areas with low value in Haikou were primarily distributed in blocks along the coast and in bands or points in the central and southern areas. From the perspective of influencing factors, the natural environmental factors dominate in Haikou, followed by the socio-economic factors and finally the tourism development factors, while the natural environmental factors also dominate in Sanya, followed by the tourism development factors and finally the socio-economic factors. We provided recommendations for sustainable tourism development in Haikou and Sanya. This study has significant implications for both integrated management and scientific decision-making to enhance the ES of tourism destinations.

Coral reefs benefit from reduced land-sea impacts under ocean warming

Coral reef ecosystems are being fundamentally restructured by local human impacts and climate-driven marine heatwaves that trigger mass coral bleaching and mortality1. Reducing local impacts can increase reef resistance to and recovery from bleaching2. However, resource managers lack clear advice on targeted actions that best support coral reefs under climate change3 and sector-based governance means most land- and sea-based management efforts remain siloed4. Here we combine surveys of reef change with a unique 20-year time series of land-sea human impacts that encompassed an unprecedented marine heatwave in Hawai'i. Reefs with increased herbivorous fish populations and reduced land-based impacts, such as wastewater pollution and urban runoff, had positive coral cover trajectories predisturbance. These reefs also experienced a modest reduction in coral mortality following severe heat stress compared to reefs with reduced fish populations and enhanced land-based impacts. Scenario modelling indicated that simultaneously reducing land-sea human impacts results in a three- to sixfold greater probability of a reef having high reef-builder cover four years postdisturbance than if either occurred in isolation. International efforts to protect 30% of Earth's land and ocean ecosystems by 2030 are underway5. Our results reveal that integrated land-sea management could help achieve coastal ocean conservation goals and provide coral reefs with the best opportunity to persist in our changing climate.

Spatial correlation analysis and prediction of carbon stock of "Production-living-ecological spaces" in the three northeastern provinces, China

The "Production-Living-Ecological Space" (PLES) is a paramount indicator in the filed of territory space development and optimization in China, under the new era. Exploring the driving factors of the PLES'land expansion is of great significance for improving space utilization, mitigating severe climate changes, and promoting green, healthy and sustainable development. In the background of the "Carbon Emissions Peak and Carbon Neutrality" strategy, analyzing and predicting the carbon stock of PLES is effective to boosting the achievement of 'Dual-Carbon' vision. Based on the above research questions， this study constructs the PLES based on statistics about land use (Year 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020) in three northeastern provinces, and reveals the spatial correlation of PLES' carbon stock in the research area through ArcGIS spatial analysis and InVEST model. Then, the PLUS model was used to clarify the contribution of each driver to the conversion of space land, and to predict the distribution of the PLES pattern and the carbon stock's spatial correlation in 2030 and 2060 under the Natural-Development Scene and Ecological-Protection-Development Scene. Results show that: (1) The PLES in the three northeastern provinces of China is primarily green ecological space (55.71%) and agricultural production space (38.10%), while industrial production space (3.60%) and urban living space (2.76%) expand significantly, and green ecological space (-0.17%) and blue ecological space (-0.89%) are on a recession trend. Besides, 2000-2010 is the most intense period of all kinds of space land transformation in the study area. (2) Population density, proximity to roads at all levels, annual average temperature and elevation are the prime drivers of PLES' profile within the scope of the study region, but the contribution rate is significant difference. (3) The urban living space decreases and the green and blue ecological space increases significantly in the predicted years under the scene of Natural-Development and Ecological-Protection development; the pattern of PLES is relatively stable in the predicted years under both scenarios. (4) The spatial correlation of carbon stock is closely related to the distribution of PLES, with the high-value significant regions primarily in the distribution region of green ecological space, otherwise, the low-value significant regions mostly concentrated in the region with complex spatial land use types and large spatial development intensity; the overall structure within the scope of the study region shows a layout of high value areas surrounding low value areas. It can show that insisting on the ecological civilization construction is an effective way to achieve sustainable development and practice the "double carbon" strategy; in the future spatial land use control, ecological protection measures should still be adopted to ensure the sustainable development and positive operation of the study area.

Quantitative assessment of sediment delivery and retention in four watersheds in the Godavari River Basin, India, using InVEST model - an aquatic ecosystem services perspective

Sediment export and retention are important ecosystem processes in any landscape causing soil erosion and sediment loading in waterways consequently affecting the health of aquatic habitats downstream. The present study quantifies sediment export and retention in four watersheds, viz., Hivra, Satrapur, Konta, and Jagdalpur in the Godavari River Basin, India, using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) ecosystem service modelling tool. The  results revealed that the sediment export yields ranged from 0.75 (Hivra) to 2.77 t/ha/year (Jagdalpur). The mean deviation between modelled values and observed sediment export yield was - 11.11%, which indicated good prediction by the model. The sediment retention ranged from 16.04 (Hivra) to 101.52 t/ha/year (Konta). Most sediment export and retention occurred on cropland or shrubland land use land cover types in all four watersheds. For decision making on soil conservation, soil loss tolerance limits have been established for these watersheds. For aquatic habitats, sediment concentration is considered more important than the total annual sediment export, since water turbidity is an important determinant of water quality, and the aquatic lives therein. Therefore, the temporal distribution of rainfall and corresponding sediment export becomes important, since these two factors determine the sediment concentration as well as turbidity in the waterbody. In current study, "Precipitation Concentration Index adjusted Sediment Export Yield Index" was developed to account for the effects of the temporal rainfall distribution and its impact on sediment export. The index for four watersheds was quantified (Hivra > Satrapur > Konta > Jagdalpur), which is concordant to the turbidity values reported by respective gauge stations. Thus, the proposed index can efficiently capture the impact of temporal rainfall distribution on sediment export, and consequently its effect on water turbidity. The study revealed the potential of InVEST model to quantify the sediment export and retention in the watersheds studied. Together with the proposed index, it would help the policy makers in making informed decisions for planning conservation strategies for aquatic biodiversity.

Spatial-Temporal Variations in of Soil Conservation Service and Its Influencing Factors under the Background of Ecological Engineering in the Taihang Mountain Area, China

Soil conservation (SC) plays an important role in maintaining regional land productivity and sustainable development. Ecological engineering (EE) is being implemented in different countries to effectively alleviate the damage to the ecological environment and effectively protect soil and food security. It is important to determine whether or not the SC capacity becomes stronger after the implementation of EE and whether or not EE has a notable impact on SC in different altitude zones. The exploration of the influencing mechanism and identification of the dominate influencing factors in different geographical regions needs to be improved. In this study, the soil conservation services (SCSs) from 1980 to 2020 in the Taihang Mountain area was assessed using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model, and the spatial and temporal distributions and influencing factors were explored. The results showed the following: (1) the average SCSs exhibited an increasing trend from 1980 to 2020 on the whole, and the rate of increase reached 50.53% during the 41-year period. The rate of increase of the SCSs varied in the different EE implementation regions, and it was significantly higher than that of the entire study area. (2) The spatial distribution of the SCSs was highly heterogeneous, and the high SCS value areas were coincident with the high-altitude areas where forest and grassland occupied a large proportion. The low value areas were mainly located in the hilly zone or some of the basin regions where the proportion of construction land was relatively high. (3) The distribution pattern of the SCSs was the result of multiple factors. The EE intensity had the strongest explanatory power for the SCSs in the hilly zone, explaining 34.63%. The slope was the most critical factor affecting the SCSs in the mid-mountain and sub-alpine zones. The slope and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) had the greatest interactions with the other factors in the three altitude zones, especially in the high-altitude regions. The quantitative analysis of the SCSs and the influences of EE and natural factors on the SCSs revealed the heterogeneity in the mountainous areas. These results also provide a scientific basis for the reasonable implementation of EE and sustainable management of SCSs in the Taihang Mountain area.

Assessment and spatial partitioning of ecosystem services importance in Giant Panda National Park: To provide targeted ecological protection

Giant Panda National Park is crucial for China's ecological security strategic pattern known as "two screens and three belts." The importance assessment and classification of ecosystem services in giant panda national parks has an important guiding role in the protection of giant panda national park ecosystems. In this study, we examined four indicators of habitat quality: carbon storage, water conservation, and soil and water conservation. Combined with data analysis were used to evaluate and classify the importance of ecosystem services in the study area. The results showed that: (1) the overall habitat quality index in the study area was relatively high, and the index was generally greater than 0.5. The total carbon storage was 60.5 × 106 t, and the highest carbon storage in the region was 16.9533 t. The area with the highest water conservation reached 715.275 mm. The total soil conservation was 2555.7 × 107 t. (2) From the perspective of spatial characteristics, the habitat quality in the study area presented a spatial distribution pattern of high-low from west to east. The carbon storage presented a spatial distribution pattern of high-low from east to west. The soil conservation presented a spatial pattern of decreasing from west to east, and the water conservation increased from west to east. (3) We divided the research into four levels of importance: The area of general importance in the study site accounted for 1017.58 km2 and was distributed in the northwest of the study site. The moderately important areas were distributed in the east of the study site, with an area of 1142.40 km2. The highly important areas were distributed in the west of the study site, totaling 2647.84 km2. Extremely important areas were distributed in the middle, with an area of 1451.32 km2. (4) The grid cell scale of the study area was used as the dataset to determine the weighting. This makes the weighting more objective and ensures that the spatial distribution of areas with different degrees of importance will be more accurate.

Exploring the Relationship between Ecosystem Services under Different Socio-Economic Driving Degrees

The large-scale transformation of natural ecosystems to socio-economic development land types under human activities was a primary reason for the decline of regional ecosystem services. It is a key issue for regional ecosystem planning and management to reveal the relationship between ecosystem services of different land use types under different socio-economic driving degrees. However, the current related research was not in-depth. Based on the land use data of Wuhan City in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, this study classified land use into three categories according to the different degrees of human activities on natural ecosystem development: the land use of a natural ecosystem (LUNE), the land use of a productive ecosystem (LUPE), and the land use of a socio-economic system (LUSE). The InVEST model was used to simulate five ecosystem services (grain yield, water yield, carbon storage, habitat quality, and water purification), and the spatio-temporal distribution and functional transformation of the three land use types were analyzed. Results showed that with the intensified urban expansion in Wuhan, the LUSE types increased to 2.7 times that of the original. However, the natural land types basically maintained a stable area, coupling with the large-scale transformation between the LUPE and LUSE types. Land use change resulted in significant spatial changes of five ecosystem services, especially carbon storage and habitat quality. The correlation analysis indicated that the five kinds of ecosystem services mainly showed a synergistic relationship, meanwhile the LUSE type denoted the most significant correlation with ecosystem services among these three category types. This study indicated that besides the protection of natural ecosystems, the LUSE type would become the key land use type in the planning and management of improving regional ecological function.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of soil loss and sediment export in Upper Bilate River Catchment (UBRC), Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Soil loss is one of the major challenges for agricultural production in the Ethiopian highlands. The rate and distribution of soil loss (SL) and sediment export (SE) are essential to map degradation “hotspot” areas for prioritizing soil and water conservation measures. The objective of this study was to estimate the dynamics of SL and SE in the Upper Bilate River Catchment of Central Ethiopia. The Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used to estimate and map SL and SE. The primary input data were rainfall, soil data, land use, and other biophysical parameters of the study area. The model output confirmed that the average total soil loss of the catchment was 36.8 million ton/yr. It is modeled that soil loss doubles within 30 years. The average annual sediment export was about 3.62 ton/ha/yr. The mean annual soil loss of the study area was 23 ton/ha/yr, which exceeded the soil loss tolerance (SLT), estimated to range between (2–18 ton/ha/yr) in Ethiopia. Based on the soil erosion risk level, about 22% of the catchment area was classified as severely degraded, while 62 % was moderately degraded. Severe soil erosion prevails in the sub-watershed (SW)-5, SW-4, and SW-13. Therefore, these sub-watersheds need priority conservation action to restore the ecosystem processes of the study area.

Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Soil Retention Service:

Globally, urbanization changes land use/land cover (LULC) and alters ecosystem functions and services. Soil retention (SR) is a critical ecological service that is strongly related to LULC change. The topic of this study is assessment of LULC change on soil retention service (SRS) in a fragile seminatural-urbanized landscape of the Jajrood basin in Northern Tehran, Iran, from 2000 to 2020. To achieve the goal, the LULC maps and the other relevant datasets were imported into the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs tool (InVEST) using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). Calibration and validation were performed using Goodness-of-fit test for observational and modeled data. The results revealed that LULC change had both negative and positive effects on SR. The built-up area increased dramatically by about 133 percent, while the rangeland shrunk by approximately 5 % during the twenty-year, leading to an increase in soil erosion and reducing SR. On the other hand, the agricultural and gardening activities expanded by 41 %, which caused an increment in SR. Due to the outgrowth of man-made areas compared to the other land uses, the overall SR decreased by about 17,000 tons. Moreover, the result indicated that slope, elevation, and land management factors, respectively, had the highest correlation with SRS. The finding of this research can provide insight to land use planners to protect the areas with high soil erosion.

Implementing landscape connectivity with topographic filtering model: A simulation of suspended sediment delivery in an agricultural watershed

The widespread availability of high-fidelity topography combined with advances in geospatial analysis offer the opportunity to reimagine approaches to the difficult problem of predicting sediment delivery from watersheds. Here we present a model that uses high-resolution topography to filter sediment sources to quantify sediment delivery to the watershed outlet. It is a reduced-complexity, top-down model that defines transfer functions-topographic filters-between spatially distributed sediment sources and spatially integrated sediment delivery. The goal of the model is to forecast changes in watershed suspended sediment delivery in response to spatially distributed changes in sediment source magnitude or delivery, whether a result of watershed drivers or intentional management actions. Such an application requires the context of a watershed model that accounts for all sediment sources, enforces sediment mass balance throughout the spatial domain, and accommodates sediment storage and delivery over time. The model is developed for a HUC-8 watershed with a flat upland dominated by corn-soybean agriculture and deeply incised valleys near the watershed outlet with large sediment contributions from near-channel sources. Topofilter computes delivery and storage of field-derived sediment according to its spatial and structural connectivity to the stream channel network; subsequently, delivery of both field- and near-channel-derived sediment along with floodplain storage are computed in the stream channel network to the watershed outlet. The model outputs provide a spatially rich representation of sediment delivery and storage on field and along the stream that is consistent with available independent information on sediment accumulations and fluxes. Rather than a single best-calibrated solution, Topofilter uses the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimate (GLUE) approach to develop many possible solutions with sediment delivery rates expressed as probability distributions across the watershed. The ensemble of simulation outputs provides a useful basis for estimating uncertainty in sediment delivery and the effectiveness of different landscape management allocation across a watershed.

Modelling regional ecological security pattern and restoration priorities after long-term intensive open-pit coal mining

Long-term intensive open-pit mining can have huge impacts on ecosystems and the services they provide, affecting the integrity of ecosystem structures, functions and process and thus the "ecological security" of a whole mining region. The indirect and direct impacts of mining are spatially and temporally complex and therefore ecological security patterns need to be considered. However, to date there has been little research focusing on ecological security patterns in mining regions. This study aims to model and map ecological security and restoration priorities in an intensive open-cut coal mining region accounting for spatio-temporal changes of multiple ecosystem services. Four ecosystem services including habitat quality, carbon sequestration, water yield, and sediment retention were assessed and mapped in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Next ecological security patterns and restoration priorities were modelled and characterized using the Self-Organizing Feature Map to identify ecological sources, and circuit theory in Linkage Mapper to characterize connectivity and flows. The results showed that habitat quality, carbon sequestration, and water yield services were most affected by vegetation cover changes due to mining exploitation, while sediment retention was influenced by multiple natural factors, especially topography. Ecological sources, corridors, pinch-points and barriers showed various changing trends due to mined and built-up land expansion over time. Ecological source area declined from 1355.08km² in 2000 to 584.92 km² in 2020, while the number of corridors increased from 17 in 2000 to 25 in 2010 and then decreased to 21 in 2020. Although restoration has been conducted on some mine sites, regional-scale restoration needs greater consideration. This study provides decision-makers and stakeholders with a method for assessing regional-scale ecological security and restoration in a holistic and systematic way moving beyond a single mine, which is critical for balancing ecological security protection with minerals production in intensive mining regions.

Challenges in modelling the sediment retention ecosystem service to inform an ecosystem account - Examples from the Mitchell catchment in northern Australia

A systems analysis perspective related to soil science is necessary to achieve many of the sustainability targets articulated by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EA) framework is the international statistical standard for quantifying both the contributions that ecosystems make to the economy, and the impacts of economic activity on ecosystems. However, due to the difficulty of obtaining empirical data on ecosystem service flows, in many cases such quantification is informed by ecosystem service models. Previous research on the Mitchell catchment, Queensland Australia provided a novel opportunity to quantify the implications of using a model of hillslope erosion and sediment delivery in isolation (as represented in one of the most frequently used ecosystem service models - InVEST), by comparing such estimates against multiple lines of local empirical data, and a more comprehensive representation of locally important erosion and deposition processes through a sediment budget model. Estimates of the magnitude of hillslope erosion modelled using an approach similar to InVEST and the calibrated sediment budget differed by an order of magnitude. If an uncalibrated InVEST-type model was used to inform the relative distribution of erosion magnitude, findings suggest the incorrect erosion process would be identified as the dominant contributor to suspended sediment loads. However, the sediment budget model could only be calibrated using data on sediment sources and sinks that had been collected through sustained research effort in the catchment. A comparable level of research investment may not be available to inform ecosystem service assessments elsewhere. Findings for the Mitchell catchment demonstrate that practitioners should exercise caution when using model-derived estimates of the sediment retention ecosystem service, which have not been calibrated and validated against locally collected empirical data, to inform an ecosystem account and progress towards achieving the SDGs.

Identify the Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Watershed Sediment and Water Yields Dynamics

The construction of large-scale water reservoir facilities in transboundary river basins always arouses intense concern and controversy. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) under construction in Ethiopia is perceived to affect water security in Egypt and Sudan. Therefore, this study investigated the water and sediment balance of the Blue Nile River (BNR) basin and identified the spatio-temporal variation in sediment and water yields along with the construction of GERD using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) sediment and water yield models. The BNR basin experienced increasing water and sediment yields between 1992 and 2020 and has shown a growth trend since 2020. The lion’s share of water and sediment yields come from upstream of the GERD. Taken together, these results imply that the construction of the GERD will serve as a water storage and silt trap for Sudan and Egypt.

Estimation of Soil Erosion and Evaluation of Soil and Water Conservation Benefit in Terraces under Extreme Precipitation

In recent years, soil erosion caused by water erosion has gradually increased due to the increase of extreme precipitation. In order to reduce soil erosion caused by extreme precipitation, it is necessary to monitor soil erosion and found out the factors that affect soil erosion under extreme precipitation. The objective of this study was to assess the amount of soil erosion, the damage degree of soil and water conservation measures and benefit evaluation under extreme precipitation in Henan Province. The results indicated that the ridges of terraces in two small watersheds had been damaged to varying degrees. Terraces, as one of soil and water conservation measures, can better preserve soil and water erosion under extreme precipitation. The amount of soil preserved in two small watersheds were 744.50t and 1121.01t. The amount of soil loss in two small watersheds were reduced by 67.67% and 78.63% when terraces existed. The soil conservation amount of vegetation restoration measures in two small watersheds were 2960.23t and 3320.36t. The amount of soil loss in two small watersheds were reduced by 89.27% and 90.98%, when vegetation restoration measures exist. Compared with soil and water conservation engineering measures, vegetation restoration measures can better reduce soil erosion caused by water erosion under extreme precipitation. In addition to the amount of rainfall, the soil and water conservation benefits of terraces were also affected by the width of the terrace, the slope of the terrace, and whether there were vegetation restoration measures in the terrace.

Uncertainty analysis of ecosystem services and implications for environmental management - An experiment in the Heihe River Basin, China

Integrating the economic values of ecosystem services provided by different land uses into decision analysis is critical to achieving effective environmental management in endorheic basins. However, policymaking often ignores the uncertainty related to the variability of parameters in ecosystem service values. To this end, we identified sensitive parameters in the ecosystem service values under four land uses using the global sensitivity analysis method and quantified the potential monetary outcomes based on the Monte Carlo method. The results indicated that only a few sensitive parameters, such as water yield (Q_i) and treatment costs per unit of nitrogen (Cost_N), were the primary sources of uncertainty. Therefore, we suggest that improving the precision of sensitive parameters is essential for reducing uncertainty in the total ecosystem service value. Additionally, the overall monetary outcomes for cropland exhibited negative values and had higher risk and lower benefits than those for forest from the standpoint of ecosystem services. In addition, the nonmarketed service of landscape aesthetic made the monetary outcomes of water bodies higher than those of cropland, yet the value of landscape aesthetic was highly uncertain. Therefore, efforts should be made to improve total monetary outcomes by decreasing the negative values in food provisioning of cropland and the uncertainty in landscape aesthetic for water bodies. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis provide important guidelines for quantifying and reducing the related uncertainty and provide policy information for environmental management based on a comprehensive consideration of the potential ecosystem service values for various land uses.

Evaluation of InVEST’s Water Ecosystem Service Models in a Brazilian Subtropical Basin

The biophysical modeling of water ecosystem services is crucial to understanding their availability, vulnerabilities, and fluxes. Among the most popular models, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models stand out. While many studies have used them, few have assessed their performance. This study evaluates the performance of InVEST’s Seasonal Water Yield, Nutrient Delivery Ratio, and Sediment Delivery Ratio models in a subtropical basin in southeastern Brazil on temporal and spatial scales, using 39 years of streamflow data, 29 for total phosphorus and total nitrogen, and 19 for total suspended solids. Statistical indicators R2, PBIAS, and NSE, were also calculated. The performance of the models varied according to the type of simulated WES and analysis scales used, with the Seasonal Water Yield model demonstrating the best performance and effectively representing the spatial and temporal variability of the average annual streamflow. All models performed well in simulating long-term mean values when compared to observed data. While one should bear in mind the study’s limitations, the results indicate that the models perform well in terms of relative magnitude, although their application in studies involving water-resource management and decision making is limited.

Implications of land sparing and sharing for maintaining regional ecosystem services: An empirical study from a suitable area for agricultural production in China

The clarification of land use management in areas of potential land use conflict plays an important role in maintaining ecosystem services. However, the relationship between land use strategies and ecosystem services in potential conflict zones remains uncertain, lacking quantitative evidence. Therefore, to construct a healthy territorial space system, a spatial classification model for land use was built based on land sparing and sharing. In addition, the inherent characteristics of different modes in the landscape structure and functional heterogeneity were also resolved. Then, an empirical analysis was carried out with the coastal agricultural production area of Maoming City, Guangdong Province. Focusing on the potential area of land use conflicts in Maoming City, that is, the suitable area for agricultural production, this study determined the differences in ecosystem services under multiple land use patterns at the pixel level, explored the trade-offs of ecosystem services in the entire suitable area and a single model, and examined the gradient effect of ecosystem services with the intensity of cultivated land use. According to the results, ecosystem services significantly differed in land use patterns, and the comprehensive ecosystem service was the highest in the land sharing model. Ecosystem services exert a synergistic effect in the entire suitable area for agricultural production, whereas there exists no correlation within a single model. When the arable land area of intensive agriculture exceeds 84.84%, food supply and other ecosystem services will be reduced to varying degrees. The study bridges the gap in research on the relationship between land sparing and sharing and ecosystem services in Chinese regions, and proposes clear land remediation strategies in potential conflict zones, which can thus provide some guidance for achieving sustainable regional development.

Trade-offs Between the Value of Ecosystem Services and Connectivity Among Protected Areas in the Upper Chattahoochee Watershed

The Upper Chattahoochee Watershed supplies most of the drinking water to the Atlanta Metropolitan Area, a region with one of the fastest urban growth rates in the United States. Smart conservation planning is necessary to conciliate urban development and the provision of critical ecosystem services (ESs) such as water quality, carbon storage, and wildlife habitat. We employed optimization models to compare the value of the ESs provided by alternative allocations of land parcels for conservation. We adopted boundary penalties to determine the trade-offs of choosing higher connectivity among parcels regarding economic values provided by carbon storage, wildlife habitat, and water quality. We used InVEST models to quantify and map ESs and value transfer to assign economic values to them. We set low and high ESs economic value bounds and discounted their values to perpetuity using 3% and 7% discount rates. Our results indicate that incorporating boundary penalties results in solutions with larger, fewer, and more connected parcels but yields lower economic benefits than unconstrained models. However, these differences are relatively small (between 2.6% and 7.3% loss in economic value). Additional transaction costs of purchasing more parcels and improving ecological networks provided by larger forest patches might justify the selection of solutions with higher connectivity. Decision-makers can use the developed models for estimating the economic cost of selecting connected parcels for conservation purposes at the landscape level.

Assessment of current and future land use/cover changes in soil erosion in the Rio da Prata basin (Brazil)

In recent years, the Cerrado biome in Brazil (Brazilian savannah) has faced severe environmental problems due to abrupt changes in land use/cover (LUC), causing increased soil loss, sediment yield and water turbidity. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the impacts of soil loss and sediment delivery ratio (SDR) over the last 30 years to simulate future scenarios of soil losses from 2050 to 2100 and to investigate an episode of sediment delivery that occurred in the Rio da Prata Basin (RPB) in 2018. In this study, the following were used: an estimation of soil losses for 1986, 1999, 2007 and 2016 using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), an estimation of SDR, sediment export and sediment deposition using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, an association of RUSLE factor C to LUC data for 2050 and 2100 based on the CA-Markov hybrid model, and an estimation of future soil erosion scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The results show that over the last 30 years (1986-2016), there has been a reduction in the areas of highly intense and severe degrees. Future soil erosion scenarios (2050-2100) showed a 13.84% increase in areas of soil loss >10 Mg ha^-1 year^-1. The results highlighted the importance of assessing the impacts of LUC changes on soil erosion and the export of sediments to agricultural watersheds in the RPB, one of the best ecotourism destinations in Brazil. In addition, the increase in soil loss in the region intensified sediment yield events and increased water turbidity. Furthermore, riparian vegetation, although preserved, was not able to protect the watercourse, showing that it is essential to adopt the best management practices in the agricultural production areas of the basin, especially where ramps are extensive or the slope is greater than 2%, to reduce the runoff velocity and control the movement of sediments on the surface towards the drainage canals. The results of this study are useful for drawing up a soil and water conservation plan for the sustainable production of agriculture and maintenance of ecosystem services in the region.

Prioritizing forest management actions to benefit marine habitats in data-poor regions

Land-use change is considered one of the greatest human threats to marine ecosystems globally. Given limited resources for conservation, we adapted and scaled up a spatially explicit, linked land-sea decision support tool using open access global geospatial data sets and software to inform the prioritization of future forest management interventions that can have the greatest benefit on marine conservation in Vanuatu. We leveraged and compared outputs from two global marine habitat maps to prioritize land areas for forest conservation and restoration that can maximize sediment retention, water quality, and healthy coastal/marine ecosystems. By combining the outputs obtained from both marine habitat maps, we incorporated elements unique to each and provided higher confidence in our prioritization results. Regardless of marine habitat data source, prioritized areas were mostly located in watersheds on the windward side of the large high islands, exposed to higher tropical rainfall, upstream from large sections of coral reef and seagrass habitats, and thus vulnerable to human-driven land use change. Forest protection and restoration in these areas will serve to maintain clean water and healthy, productive habitats through sediment retention, supporting the wellbeing of neighboring communities. The nationwide application of this linked land-sea tool can help managers prioritize watershed-based management actions based on quantitative synergies and trade-offs across terrestrial and marine ecosystems in data-poor regions. The framework developed here will guide the implementation of ridge-to-reef management across the Pacific region and beyond.

Quantifying spatial non-stationarity in the relationship between landscape structure and the provision of ecosystem services: An example in the New Zealand hill country

Knowing how landscape structure affects the provision of ecosystem services (ES) is an important first step toward better landscape planning. Because landscape structure is often heterogenous across space, modelling the relationship between landscape structure and the provision of ES must account for spatial non-stationarity. This paper examines the relationship between landscape structure and the provision of ES using a hill country and steep-land case farm in New Zealand. Indicators derived from land cover and topographical data such as Largest Patch Index (LPI), Contrast Class Edge (CCE), Edge Density (ED), and Terrain slope (SLOPE) were used to examine the landscape's structure and pattern. Measures of pasture productivity, soil erosion control, and water supply were derived with InVEST tools and spatial analysis in a GIS. Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) was used to evaluate the relationship between indicators of landscape structure and the provisioning of ES. Other regression models, including Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), were carried out to evaluate the performance of MGWR. Results showed that landscape patterns significantly affect the supply of all mapped ES, and this varies across the landscape, dependent on the pattern of topographical features and land cover pattern and structure. MWGR outperformed other OLS and GWR in terms of explanatory power of the ES determinants and had a better ability to deal with the presence of spatial autocorrelation. Spatially and quantitatively detailed variations of the relationship between landscape structure and the provision of ES provide a scientific basis to inform the design of sustainable multifunctional landscapes. Information derived from this analysis can be used for spatial planning of farmed landscapes to promote multiple ES which meet multiple sustainable development objectives.

Spatio-Temporal Change of Multiple Ecosystem Services and Their Driving Factors: A Case Study in Beijing, China

Driven by rapid urbanization, land use patterns have undergone dramatic changes, which have in turn influenced ecosystem services (ESs). The government has implemented ecological compensation and conservation actions to mitigate this negative impact, especially in metropolises. However, whether these measures will have the desired effect remains unclear. Therefore, understanding the spatio-temporal characteristics of ESs and their driving factors are crucial for regional development. In this study, we quantified carbon storage, water yield and soil conservation services based on land use maps. A Geographical Detector (GD) was used to analyze the driving mechanisms of ES changes in Beijing from 1985 to 2020. The results showed that (1) the obvious landscape pattern changes are urbanization, afforestation and cultivated land degradation in Beijing, (2) the three services showed an increasing trend overall, but the changes were different in each period, (3) in general, land use change is the main factor affecting ESs, and the urbanization and afforestation contributed the most. These results suggest that in highly urbanized metropolises, humans can still balance the demands of regional development and ESs reasonable planning. This study highlights the importance of afforestation for ESs, the necessity of harmonizing environmental concerns and human activities, and the need to conduct ecological management in Beijing to protect the ecological environment and coordinate regional development.

Improving ecosystem services supply provides insights for sustainable landscape planning: A case study in Beijing, China

Promoting land use planning through ecosystem service (ES) protection is a crucial approach for maintaining landscape sustainability. Identifying ES bundles to serve landscape functional zoning can provide a new perspective for sustainable land use planning. Taking the Beijing metropolitan region as a study area, we quantitatively assessed the spatiotemporal distributions of multiple ESs, from 1980 to 2017, based on land use changes. By combining ES patterns and comprehensive ecosystem service (CES), distinct ES bundles were identified through the clustering method. Based on the ES bundles, landscape functional zones were then established. We further developed improved land use scenarios to conserve ESs in selected towns of different functional zones by exploring dominant factors influencing ESs. Results showed that most of ESs decreased due to the expansion of developed lands. According to the classification of ES bundles, Beijing can be classified into three landscape functional zones at town level: the ecological conservation region (ECR), food production region (FPR), and urban development region (UDR). For each landscape functional zone, the town with the greatest decline in CES value was selected. Associated with the influencing factors of ESs, local land use patterns, and ecological protection policies, corresponding multi-step improved land use scenarios were designed. These scenarios were demonstrated to be effective in conserving ESs in the selected towns: (1) the agricultural expansion scenario, which enhanced food provision services in the ECR; (2) the forest conservation scenario, which enhanced habitat and recreational services in the FPR; and (3) the developed land optimization scenario, which enhanced a range of regulating services in the UDR. Overall, this study used landscape functional zoning as a nexus to connect ES patterns and land use management. The optimized land use strategies can provide references for conserving ESs and enhancing landscape sustainability in Beijing and other similar metropolitan areas worldwide.

Potential Loss of Toxic Elements from Slope Arable Soil Erosion into Watershed in Southwest China: Effect of Spatial Distribution and Land-Uses

The watershed-scale distribution and loss of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) through soil erosion from slope lands to a watershed has not yet been systematically studied, especially in small mountain watersheds with high geological background PTEs in Southwest China. In this study, the spatial distribution, loss intensities and ecological risks of 12 PTEs were investigated in 101 soil samples from four types of land use in a typical watershed, Guizhou Province. Moreover, in order to avoid over- or underestimation of the contamination level in such specific geologies with significant variability in natural PTE distribution, the local background values (local BVs) were calculated by statistical methods. The dry arable land had the highest loss intensity of PTEs and was the largest contributor of PTEs (more than 80%) in the watershed, even though it covers a much smaller area compared to the forest land. The loss of Cd, As, Sb, and Hg from slope arable lands into the watershed leads to a relatively high potential ecological risk. The study suggested that both PTEs content with different types of land-uses and intensities of soil loss are of great importance for PTEs’ risk assessment in the small watershed within a high geological background region. Furthermore, in order to reduce the loss of PTEs in soil, the management of agricultural activities in arable land, especially the slope arable land, is necessary.

Suitable Land-Use and Land-Cover Allocation Scenarios to Minimize Sediment and Nutrient Loads into Kwan Phayao, Upper Ing Watershed, Thailand

Human activity and land-use changes have affected the water quality of Kwan Phayao, Upper Ing watershed, due to the associated high sediment load and eutrophication. This study aims to identify suitable LULC allocation scenarios for minimizing sediment and nutrient export into the lake. For this purpose, the LULC status and change were first assessed, based on classified LULC data in 2009 and 2019 from Landsat images, using the SVM algorithm. Later, the land requirements of three scenarios between 2020 and 2029 were estimated, based on their characteristics, and applied to predict LULC change using the CLUE-S model. Then, actual LULC data in 2019 and predicted LULC data under three scenarios between 2020 and 2029 were used to estimate sediment and nutrient export using the SDR and NDR models. Finally, the ecosystem service change index identified a suitable LULC allocation for minimizing sediment or/and nutrient export. According to the results, LULC status and change indicated perennial trees and orchards, para rubber, and rangeland increased, while forest land and paddy fields decreased. The land requirements of the three scenarios provided reasonable results, as expected, particularly Scenario II, which adopts linear programming to calculate the land requirements for maximizing ecosystem service values. For sediment and nutrient export estimation under the predicted LULC for the three scenarios, Scenario II led to the lowest yield of sediment and nutrient exports, and provided the lowest average ESCI value among the three scenarios. Thus, the LULC allocation under Scenario II was chosen as suitable for minimizing sediment or/and nutrient export into Kwan Phayao. These results can serve as crucial information to minimize sediment and nutrient loads for land-use planners, land managers, and decision makers.

Assessing the effects of different land-use/land-cover input datasets on modelling and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services - Case study Terceira Island (Azores, Portugal)

Modelling ecosystem services (ES) has become a new standard for the quantification and assessment of various ES. Multiple ES model applications are available that spatially estimate ES supply on the basis of land-use/land-cover (LULC) input data. This paper assesses how different input LULC datasets affect the modelling and mapping of ES supply for a case study on Terceira Island, the Azores (Portugal), namely: (1) the EU-wide CORINE LULC, (2) the Azores Region official LULC map (COS.A 2018) and (3) a remote sensing-based LULC and vegetation map of Terceira Island using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. The InVEST model suite was applied, modelling altogether six ES (Recreation/Visitation, Pollination, Carbon Storage, Nutrient Delivery Ratio, Sediment Delivery Ratio and Seasonal Water Yield). Model outcomes of the three LULC datasets were compared in terms of similarity, performance and applicability for the user. For some InVEST modules, such as Pollination and Recreation, the differences in the LULC datasets had limited influence on the model results. For InVEST modules, based on more complex calculations and processes, such as Nutrient Delivery Ratio, the output ES maps showed a skewed distribution of ES supply. Yet, model results showed significant differences for differences in all modules and all LULCs. Understanding how differences arise between the LULC input datasets and the respective effect on model results is imperative when computing model-based ES maps. The choice for selecting appropriate LULC data should depend on: 1) the research or policy/decision-making question guiding the modelling study, 2) the ecosystems to be mapped, but also on 3) the spatial resolution of the mapping and 4) data availability at the local level. Communication and transparency on model input data are needed, especially if ES maps are used for supporting land use planning and decision-making.

Impact of landscape pattern changes on hydrological ecosystem services in the Beressa watershed of the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia

Landscape pattern changes are mostly due to human activities, and such changes often affect ecosystem functions and services. This study was conducted to evaluate the response of hydrological ecosystem services (HESs) to structural landscape changes. Spatiotemporal changes in two specific HES indicators, water yield (WY) and sediment export (SE), were quantified by analyzing historic (1972-2017) and projected land use/land cover changes (2017-2047). The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Model was used for this purpose. Results indicated that WY and SE changed significantly (p ˂ 0.01) during the study period. The total WY and SE increased by 30.29% and 98.69%, respectively, between 1972 and 2017. Analysis of the projections for the next three decades (2017-2047) suggested an increase in WY and SE by 4.8% and 93.11%, respectively. Furthermore, results revealed that WY and SE are strongly influenced by landscape composition, and metrics such as percentage of landscape (PLAND), mean patch size (MPS), and large patch index (LPI) of farmland and plantations were found to be key factors affecting HESs degradation in the Beressa watershed. PLAND (VIP = 1.34; w = 0.55; and VIP = 1.32; w = 0.56) and MPS (VIP = 1.32; w = 0.50 and VIP = 1.31; w = 0.56)) of farmland cover contributed most to the changes in WY and SE, respectively. Similarly, PLAND (VIP = 1.33; w = 0.54 and VIP = 1.28; w = 0.52), LPI (VIP = 1.27; w = 0.52 and VIP = 1.30; w = 0.54) and MPS (VIP = 1.29; w = 0.52) of plantation cover also contributed more to the change in WY and SE. Besides that, of anthropogenic factors, compositions of natural vegetation and grassland cover were found to heavily influence HESs in the watershed studied. The findings of the study suggest that soil and water conservation interventions are vital to minimize and control water-related problems and enhance ESs.

Exploring Spatiotemporal Variation of Carbon Storage Driven by Land Use Policy in the Yangtze River Delta Region

Land use/land cover (LULC) change driven by land use policy always leads to dramatic change in carbon storage and sequestration, especially in a rapidly urbanizing region. However, few studies explored the influences of land use polices on carbon storage and sequestration in a rapidly urbanizing region. Through Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, the spatial-temporal pattern of carbon storage altered by LULC transformation and its linkage with land use policies were analyzed in five periods (1990–1995, 1995–2000, 2000–2005, 2000–2010, 2010–2015) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Region. The results indicated that: (1) the carbon storage in the YRD was substantially altered by continuous LULC transformation, totally decreased by 1.49 × 107 Mg during 1990–2015. (2) The total amount of carbon storage increased from 2.91 × 109 Mg in 1990 to 2.95 × 109 Mg in 1995, and then decreased to 2.90 × 109 Mg in 1995–2015. Thus, the total economic value of carbon storage increased approximately from 467.42 million dollars in 1990 to 472.99 million dollars in 1995, and then decreased to 465.01 million dollars in 2015. (3) The carbon storage and sequestration were influenced by LULC transformation driven by land use policies in five periods: large areas of grassland converted to woodland in 1990–1995 led by Forest Law, then clustered areas of cropland converted to built-up land in 1995–2015 around large cities of YRD Region led by Land Management Law and Development Plans, and finally, the conversion of cropland to built-up land was decreased and scattered in the entire region influenced by land use polices led by early stage of ecocivilization construction. The study can facilitate to develop regional land use policy for carbon storage conservation and carbon neutrality in a rapidly urbanizing region.

Global forest restoration opportunities to foster coral reef conservation

Sediment runoff from disturbed coastal catchments is a major threat to marine ecosystems. Understanding where sediments are produced and where they are delivered enables managers to design more effective strategies for improving water quality. A management strategy is targeted restoration of degraded terrestrial areas, as it provides opportunities to reduce land-based runoff from coastal areas and consequently foster coral reef conservation. To do this strategically, a systematic approach is needed to identify watersheds where restoration actions will provide the highest conservation benefits for coral reefs. Here, we develop a systematic approach for identifying global forest restoration opportunities that would also result in large decreases in the flux of sediments to coral reefs. We estimate how land-use change affects sediment runoff globally using high-resolution spatial data and determine the subsequent risk of sediment exposure on coral reefs using a diffusion-based ocean transport model. Our results reveal that sediment export is a major issue affecting 41% of coral reefs globally. The main coastal watersheds with the highest sediment export are predominantly located in Southeast Asian countries, with Indonesia and the Philippines accounting for 52% of the sediment export in coastal areas near coral reefs. We show how restoring forest across multiple watersheds could help to reduce sediment export to 63,000 km² of coral reefs. Although reforestation opportunities in areas that discharge onto coral reefs are relatively small across watersheds, it is possible to achieve large sediment reduction benefits by strategically targeting watersheds located in regions with a high density of corals near to the coast. Thus, reforestation benefits on coral reefs do not necessarily come from the watersheds that produce the highest sediment export. These analyses are key for generating informed action to support both international conservation policy and national restoration activities.

Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Ecosystem Services in Laguna del Sauce (Uruguay) Using the SWAT Model and Remote Sensing Data

Assessing how climate change will affect hydrological ecosystem services (HES) provision is necessary for long-term planning and requires local comprehensive climate information. In this study, we used SWAT to evaluate the impacts on four HES, natural hazard protection, erosion control regulation and water supply and flow regulation for the Laguna del Sauce catchment in Uruguay. We used downscaled CMIP-5 global climate models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 projections. We calibrated and validated our SWAT model for the periods 2005–2009 and 2010–2013 based on remote sensed ET data. Monthly NSE and R2 values for calibration and validation were 0.74, 0.64 and 0.79, 0.84, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change will likely negatively affect the water resources of the Laguna del Sauce catchment, especially in the RCP 8.5 scenario. In all RCP scenarios, the catchment is likely to experience a wetting trend, higher temperatures, seasonality shifts and an increase in extreme precipitation events, particularly in frequency and magnitude. This will likely affect water quality provision through runoff and sediment yield inputs, reducing the erosion control HES and likely aggravating eutrophication. Although the amount of water will increase, changes to the hydrological cycle might jeopardize the stability of freshwater supplies and HES on which many people in the south-eastern region of Uruguay depend. Despite streamflow monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the uncertainty of model results, our findings provide valuable insights for water resources planning in the study area. Hence, water management and monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the potential negative climate change impacts on HES. The methodological approach presented here, based on satellite ET data can be replicated and adapted to any other place in the world since we employed open-access software and remote sensing data for all the phases of hydrological modelling and HES provision assessment.

Sediment retention by natural landscapes in the conterminous United States

Soils provide vital ecosystem services, from sequestering carbon to providing food and moderating floods. Soil erosion threatens the provisioning of these services and degrades downstream water quality. Vegetation plays an important role in soil retention: by holding it in place, soil can continue to provide ecosystem goods and services and protect water resources. The aims of this study were to: (1) develop a 30-meter resolution map of erosion in the conterminous United States, and (2) quantify the soil retention service of natural vegetation. Using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation and physiographic and remote sensing datasets, we estimated sheet and rill erosion. We also developed a map of sediment delivery ratio to connect erosion to downstream delivery using hydrologic connectivity. The estimated sheet and rill erosion in the conterminous United States was 1.55 Pg yr^-1, of which 0.52 Pg yr^-1 reached waterbodies. Natural land cover prevents 12.3 Pg yr^-1 of sheet and rill erosion and 5.1 Pg yr^-1 in delivery to waterbodies. The value of natural land cover in retaining sediment is a function of the land cover, physiographic characteristics, and spatial context. This study has implications for spatial prioritization of natural land cover preservation and agricultural land management to minimize sediment erosion and delivery.

Integrating connectivity theory within watershed modelling part II: Application and evaluating structural and functional connectivity

Integrating connectivity theory within watershed modelling is one solution to overcome spatial and temporal shortcomings of sediment transport prediction, and Part I and II of these companion papers advance this overall goal. In Part II of these companion papers, we investigate sediment flux via connectivity formula discretized over many catchments and then integrated via sediment routing; and we advance model evaluation technology by using hysteresis of sensor data. Model evaluation with hysteresis indices provides nearly a 100% increase in model statistics. Hysteresis loop evaluation shows a shift from near linear behavior at low to moderate events and then clock-wise loops for larger events indicating the importance of proximal sediment sources. Catchment-scale sediment flux varies as function of the probability of timing and extent of connectivity of an individual catchment. Watershed-scale sediment flux shows self-similarity for the main stem of the river channel as the 181 catchments are integrated moving down gradient. Sediment flux varies from event-to-event as a function of the most sensitive connected pathways, including ephemeral gullies and roadside ditches in this basin. These sensitive pathways contribute disproportionately large amounts to overall sediment yield regardless of the total rainfall depth. Prediction requires the connectivity formula, erosion formula and sediment routing formula; and the probability of connectivity alone was a poor predictor for sediment transport. The result highlights the importance of coupling connectivity simulations with sediment transport formula, and our method provides one such approach.

Economic, land use, and ecosystem services impacts of Rwanda's Green Growth Strategy: An application of the IEEM+ESM platform

We develop and link the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform to ecosystem services modeling (ESM). The IEEM+ESM Platform is an innovative decision-making framework for exploring complex public policy goals and elucidating synergies and trade-offs between alternative policy portfolios. The IEEM+ESM approach is powerful in its ability to shed light on (i) change in land use and ecosystem services driven by public policy and the supply and demand responses of businesses and households; and (ii) impacts on standard economic indicators of concern to Ministries of Finance such as gross domestic product and employment, as well as changes in wealth and ecosystem services. The IEEM+ESM approach is being adopted rapidly and by the end of 2020, IEEM+ESM Platforms will be implemented for about 25 countries. To demonstrate the insights generated by the IEEM+ESM approach, we apply it to the analysis of alternative green growth strategies in Rwanda, a country that has made strong progress in reducing poverty and enhancing economic growth in the last 15 years. The case of Rwanda is particularly compelling as it faces intense pressure on its natural capital base and ecosystem services, already with the highest population density in Africa, which is projected to double by 2050. In applying IEEM+ESM and comparing the outcomes of Rwanda's green growth policies, increasing fertilization of agricultural crops shows the largest economic gains but also trade-offs in environmental quality reflected through higher nutrient export and reduced water quality. Combining crop fertilization with forest plantations better balances critical ecosystem services and their role in underpinning economic development as Rwanda progresses toward its target of middle-income status by 2035. This application to Rwanda's green growth strategy demonstrates the value-added of the IEEM+ESM approach in generating results that speak to both economic outcomes and impacts on market and non-market ecosystem services.

Land use/land cover change effect on soil erosion and sediment delivery in the Winike watershed, Omo Gibe Basin, Ethiopia

Information on soil loss and sediment export is essential to identify hotspots of soil erosion to inform conservation interventions in a given watershed. This study investigates the dynamics of soil loss and sediment export associated with land-use/land cover changes and identifying soil loss hotspot areas in the Winike watershed of the Omo-Gibe Basin of Ethiopia. Spatial data collected from satellite images, topographic maps, meteorological and soil data were analyzed. The land-use types in the study area were categorized into six: cultivated land, woodland, forest, grazing, shrubland, and bare land. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) of the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) model was used based on the analysis of land use/land cover and RUSLE factors. The results show that total soil loss increased from 774.86 thousand tons in 1988 to 951.21 thousand tons in 2018 while the corresponding sediment export increased by 3.85 thousand tons for the same period. These were subsequently investigated in each land-use type. Cultivated fields generated the highest soil erosion rate, increasing from 10.02 t/ha/year in 1988 to 43.48 t/ha/year in 2018 when compared with the grazing, shrub, forest, wood land and bare land-use types. This corresponds with the expansion of the cultivated area. This is logical as the correlation between soil loss and sediment delivery and expansion of cultivated area is highly significant (p < 0.001). Sub-watershed six (SW-6) showed the highest soil loss (23.17 t/ha/year) while sub-watershed two (SW- 2) has the lowest soil loss (5.54 t/ha/year). This is because SW-2 is situated in the lower reaches of the watershed under dense vegetation cover experiencing less erosion. The findings on the erosion hotspots presented in this study allow prioritizing the segments of the watershed that need immediate application of improved management interventions and informed decision-making processes.

Future Impacts of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Scenarios in the Ecological Conservation Area, Beijing, China

Ecosystem services (ES), defined as benefits provided by the ecosystem to society, are essential to human well-being. However, it remains unclear how they will be affected by land-use changes due to lack of knowledge and data gaps. Therefore, understanding the response mechanism of ecosystem services to land-use change is critical for developing systematic and sound land planning. In this study, we aimed to explore the impacts of land-use change on the three ecosystem services, carbon storage (CS), flood regulation (FR), and soil conservation (SC), in the ecological conservation area of Beijing, China. We first projected land-use changes from 2015 to 2030, under three scenarios, i.e., Business as Usual (BAU), Ecological Land Protection (ELP), and Rapid Economic Development (RED), by interactively integrating the Markov model (Quantitative simulation) with the GeoSOS-FLUS model (Spatial arrangement), and then quantified the three ecosystem services by using a spatially explicit InVEST model. The results showed that built-up land would have the most remarkable growth during 2015–2030 under the RED scenario (2.52% increase) at the expense of cultivated and water body, while forest land is predicted to increase by 152.38 km2 (1.36% increase) under the ELP scenario. The ELP scenario would have the highest amount of carbon storage, flood regulation, and soil conservation, due to the strict protection policy on ecological land. The RED scenario, in which a certain amount of cultivated land, water body, and forest land is converted to built-up land, promotes soil conservation but triggers greater loss of carbon storage and flood regulation capacity. The conversion between land-use types will affect trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services, in which carbon storage would show significant positive correlation with soil conservation through the period of 2015 to 2030, under all scenarios. Together, our results provide a quantitative scientific report that policymakers and land managers can use to identify and prioritize the best practices to sustain ecosystem services, by balancing the trade-offs among services.