Importance of environmental and biomass dynamics in predicting chemical exposure in ecological risk assessment

Spatially resolved environmental fate models: A review

Spatially resolved environmental models are important tools to introduce and highlight the spatial variability of the real world into modeling. Although various spatial models have been developed so far, yet the development and evaluation of these models remain a challenging task due to several difficulties related to model setup, computational cost, and obtaining high-resolution input data (e.g., monitoring and emission data). For example, atmospheric transport models can be used when high resolution predicted concentrations in atmospheric compartments are required, while spatial multimedia fate models may be preferred for regulatory risk assessment, life cycle impact assessment of chemicals, or when the partitioning of chemical substances in a multimedia environment is considered. The goal of this paper is to review and compare different spatially resolved environmental models, according to their spatial, temporal and chemical domains, with a closer insight into spatial multimedia fate models, to achieve a better understanding of their strengths and limitations. This review also points out several requirements for further improvement of existing models as well as for their integration.

Estimating temporal and spatial levels of PAHs in air using rain samples and SPME analysis: Feasibility evaluation in an urban scenario

There is a growing interest in evaluating the role of concentration changes of contaminants in temporal and spatial gradients. This is often relevant for fast moving environmental phases such as air and water. In this paper, small volumes of rainwater were sampled as proxy for air concentrations of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs): rain was collected in three sampling sites (high traffic, restricted traffic and a low traffic zone) in Como. Solid phase micro extraction (SPME) was used for the extraction to reduce required sample volumes, allowing the acquisition of more samples in time. Rain samples highlighted a spatial and temporal variability along a traffic gradient in the Como city, especially for the most abundant PAH, e.g. phenanthrene. Air concentrations were then estimated from rain concentrations. The results show that this is a cheap and promising method, although requiring rainfall/snowfall conditions, that can be used to perform monitoring campaign of air concentrations at a higher temporal and spatial resolution than the adopted standard methods (e.g. high-volume air samplers). The results could be employed for evaluation of the exposure, emission profiles and calibration of fate models.

An integrated system for rapid assessment of ecological quality based on remote sensing data

Ecological quality assessment (EQA) is important for regional socio-economic development and its sustainability. To assess the status of land ecological quality more precisely, an ecological quality assessment system with 11 indicators of ecological stability, ecosystem service function, and habitat stress was established using the analytic hierarchy process for Guangdong Province, a highly urbanized region of China. Remotely sensed data were mainly used to quantify the 11 indicators and acquire regional EQA graphs at high spatial resolution. In addition, we used the spatial autocorrelation measure Moran's I to capture dynamic signatures of spatial organization of ecological quality in the study area. The results show that the ecological quality of the study area is heterogeneous spatially but relatively consistent in different regions. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation for EQI in Guangdong was revealed by global Moran's I. Potential ecological hot spot or cold spot were detected based on the spatial clustering patterns that were obtained by local Moran's I. Lands with low ecological quality is mainly distributed in economically developed areas such as the Pearl River Delta and coastal cities in eastern and western Guangdong, while those with high ecological quality are mostly situated in northern mountainous areas that have lush vegetation. The low assessment scores for Guangdong, especially for the Pearl River Delta, are highly correlated with large populations and degrees of industrial agglomeration; this is mainly because urbanization and economic development jeopardize the environment. The presented case study can facilitate information provision and targeted strategy making for environmental protection. This study provides a helpful approach to assess and to analyze the ecological status in the future research. In contrast with methods that employ a single metric and limited data, the assessment system proposed in this study expands the potential application of the remotely sensed data and enriches the methodological system for EQAs.

Modelling peak exposure of pesticides in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems: importance of dissolved organic carbon and vertical particle movement in soil

In the present work, an existing vegetation/air/litter/soil model (SoilPlusVeg) was modified to improve organic chemical fate description in terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems accounting for horizontal and vertical particulate organic carbon (POC) transport in soil. The model was applied to simulate the fate of three pesticides (terbuthylazine, chlorpyrifos and etofenprox), characterized by increasing hydrophobicity (log K_OW from about 3 to 7), in the soil compartment and more specifically, their movement towards surface and groundwater through infiltration and runoff processes. The aim was to evaluate the role of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and POC in the soil in influencing the peak exposure of pesticides in terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems. Simulation results showed that while terbuthylazine and chlorpyrifos dominated the free water phase (C_W-FREE) of soil, etofenprox was mainly present in soil porewater as POC associated chemical. This resulted in an increase of this highly hydrophobic chemical movement towards groundwater and surface water, up to a factor of 40. The present work highlighted the importance of DOC and POC as an enhancer of mobility in the water of poor or very little mobile chemicals. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the bioavailability change with time and parameterize this process in multimedia fate models.

A review of pesticide fate and transport simulation at watershed level using SWAT: Current status and research concerns

The application of pesticides in agriculture is a widely-used way to alleviate pest stresses. However, it also introduces various environmental concerns due to the offsite movement of pesticide residues towards receiving water bodies. While the application of process-based modeling approaches can provide quantitative information on pesticide exposure, there are nonetheless growing requirements for model development and improvement to better represent various hydrological and physico-chemical conditions at watershed scale, and for better model integration to address environmental, ecological and economic concerns. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is an ecohydrological model used in over 3000 published studies, including about 50 for simulating pesticide fate and transport at the watershed scale. To better understand its strengths and limitations, we conducted a rigorous review of published studies that have used SWAT for pesticide modeling. This review provides recommendations for improving the interior algorithms (fate simulation, pathway representation, transport/pollution control, and other hydrological related improvement) to better represent natural conditions, and for further extension of pesticide exposure modeling using SWAT by linking it with other models or management tools to effectively address the various concerns of environmental researchers and local decision makers. Going beyond past studies, we also recommend future improvement to fill research gaps in developing modularized field level simulation, improved BMPs, new in-pond and in-stream modules, and the incorporation of soft data. Our review pointed out a new insight of pesticide fate and transport modeling at watershed level, which should be seen as steps leading to the direction for model development, as well as better addressing management concerns of local stakeholders for model implementation.

A review of multimedia transport and fate models for chemicals: Principles, features and applicability

The frequent use of chemicals has caused ecosystems and humans to be threatened due to their discharge into the environment. Multimedia environmental fate models could provide a comprehensive picture of transport behaviour and fate for organic chemicals in multiple environmental media. They have been designed and widely used for chemical risk assessment, chemical ranking and management support, and determination of chemical bioaccumulation. This study reviewed the principles, features and applicability of recent commonly used multimedia fate models from peer-reviewed literature. Fugacity-based and concentration-based models are now widely adopted for use in chemical fate evaluation, while they are more appropriate for volatile and semi-volatile chemicals. Or the fugacity-based models can use aquivalence equilibrium criterion to cations, anions and involatile chemicals. The MAMI and SESAMe models based on activity approach are applicable to neutral and ionizable molecules. However, interactions of ionic species with other water solutes are not taken into account in these models. Additionally, they could not directionally simulate how chemicals transported form one grid to another. Future attention should be focused on the reliability of transfer behaviour and fate of ionizable chemicals, as integrating the advantages of these two kinds of models into a reconstructed one may be a better choice. In a word, environmental multimedia models have been beneficial tools for chemical control and management, risk and effect estimation, and decision supporting.

Evaluating improvements to exposure estimates from fate and transport models by incorporating environmental sampling effort and contaminant use

Widespread chemical contamination represents one of the largest threats of the Anthropocene. The Pesticide in Water Calculator (PWC) is a fate and transport model used by the Environmental Protection Agency and Health Canada to estimate pesticide exposures in lentic freshwater ecosystems and make pesticide registration decisions. Here, we show that maximum measured concentrations of 31% of herbicides and 42% of insecticides exceeded maximum estimated environmental concentrations (EECs) produced by the PWC, suggesting that EECs often do not represent worst-case exposure as they have been purported to do. Based on this observation, we generated statistical models using EECs and over 600,000 field measurements of 31 common insecticides and herbicides to document if the congruence of EECs and maximum field measurements could be improved by accounting for environmental sampling effort (number of times a pesticide is sampled) and contaminant application, factors commonly ignored in most fate and transport models. For lentic systems, variance in pesticide field measurements explained by EECs increased by 50% when sampling effort was included. For lotic systems, variance explained increased by only 4%, most likely because lotic systems are sampled over 4.9 times as much as lentic systems. Including use more than doubled the ability of the EECs to predict maximum pesticides concentrations in lentic systems. Our results suggest that exposure characterization in risk assessment can likely be improved by considering sampling effort and use, thus providing more defensible environmental standards and regulations.

A review of the predictive models estimating association of neutral and ionizable organic chemicals with dissolved organic carbon

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays a key role in environmental transport, fate and bioavailability of organic chemicals in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Predicting the association of contaminants to DOC is therefore crucial in modelling chemical exposure and risk assessment. The models proposed so far to describe interaction mechanisms between chemicals and DOC and the most influential variables have been reviewed. The single-parameter linear free energy relationships (sp-LFERs) and the poly-parameter linear free energy relationships (pp-LFERs) in the form of linear solvation energy relationships (LSERs) currently available in literature for estimating dissolved organic carbon/water partition (K_DOC) and distribution (D_DOC) coefficients for organic chemicals were discussed, and limits of the existing approaches explored. For neutral chemicals many predictive equations are currently available in literature, but the quality of the input data on which they are based is often questionable, due to the lack of an unequivocal definition of DOC among different references and to the different and often unreliable K_DOC measurement method. For ionizable chemicals instead there is a substantial lack of predictive approaches that need to be fulfilled since just few models are nowadays available to predict D_DOC of ionized species. This paper reviews the current approaches for neutral and ionizable chemicals proposing guidelines to select conditions for obtaining reliable data and predictive equations for an improved estimation of K_DOC and D_DOC.

Predicting dissolved organic carbon partition and distribution coefficients of neutral and ionizable organic chemicals

Estimating K_DOC (dissolved organic carbon/water partition coefficient) and D_DOC (dissolved organic carbon/water distribution coefficient) of neutral and ionizable organic chemicals is a crucial task for assessing mobility, modelling transport, environmental fate of a variety of chemicals and for evaluating their bioavailability in terrestrial and aquatic environments. A critical literature search of reliability-selected K_DOC and D_DOC values was performed to setup novel predictive relationships for K_DOC and D_DOC of neutral and ionizable organic chemicals. This goal was pursued by using: 1) LSER (linear solvation energy relationship) models to predict K_DOC for neutral chemicals using Abraham solute parameters calculated for different DOC sources (all DOC sources together, soil porewater, surface water, wastewater and Aldrich humic acid (HA)); 2) linear regressions for predicting D_DOC of organic acids from the octanol/water partition coefficient (Log K_OW or Log P) and the dissociation constant (pKa), accounting separately for the contribution of the neutral and ionic fraction. The proposed models predicted Log K_DOC and D_DOC values within a root mean square deviation (RMSD) generally smaller than 0.3 log units.

Pesticide fate in cultivated mountain basins: The improved DynAPlus model for predicting peak exposure and directing sustainable monitoring campaigns to protect aquatic ecosystems

Agricultural activities can involve the use of plant protection products (PPPs) and the use of such chemicals can occur near surface waters bodies, thus creating a potential for adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. In mountain watersheds, where runoff fluxes are particularly rapid due to side slopes, exposure is generally characterized by short but intense concentration peaks. Monitoring campaigns are often inadequate or too expensive to be carried out and modelling tools are therefore vital for exposure assessment and their use is encouraged by current legislation. However, currently adopted models and scenarios (e.g., FOCUS for PPPs) are often too conservative and/or "static" to accurately capture exposure variability, and the need for more realistic and dynamic tools is now one of the major challenges for risk assessment. In a previous work, the new fate model DynAPlus was developed to improve pesticide fate predictions in cultivated mountain basins and was successfully evaluated against chlorpyrifos water concentrations measured in a mountain stream in Northern Italy. However, the need for some model improvements (e.g., the inclusion of dissolved organic matter and macrophytes in water) was highlighted. In this work, DynAPlus was improved by replacing the water-sediment unit with ChimERA fate, a recently-published model capable of predicting bioavailable chemical concentrations in shallow water environments accounting for the presence and temporal variations of particulate/dissolved organic carbon and primary producers. The model was applied to preliminarily characterize the risk associated to the use of four PPPs (two insecticides and two fungicides) in a sub-basin of the Adda River (Valtellina Valley, Northern Italy), surrounded by apple orchards. Results revealed the potential magnitude of exposure peaks for the four PPPs and suggested that monitoring campaigns should prioritize, in the selected case study, chlorpyrifos, etofenprox and fluazinam. The potential role of DynAPlus in providing more realistic exposure predictions for ecological risk assessment, as well as for planning efficient monitoring campaigns and help pesticide management practices, was also stressed.

AGRO-2014: A time dependent model for assessing the fate and food-web bioaccumulation of organic pesticides in farm ponds: Model testing and performance analysis

A time-dependent environmental fate and food-web bioaccumulation model is developed to improve the evaluation of the behaviour of non-ionic hydrophobic organic pesticides in farm ponds. The performance of the model was tested by simulating the behaviour of 3 hydrophobic organic pesticides, i.e., metaflumizone (CAS Number: 139968-49-3), kresoxim-methyl (CAS Number: 144167-04-4) and pyraclostrobin (CAS Number: 175013-18-0), in microcosm studies and a Bluegill bioconcentration study for metaflumizone. In general, model-calculated concentrations of the pesticides were in reasonable agreement with the observed concentrations. Also, calculated bioaccumulation metrics were in good agreement with observed values. The model's application to simulate concentrations of organic pesticides in water, sediment and biota of farm ponds after episodic pesticide applications is illustrated. It is further shown that the time dependent model has substantially better accuracy in simulating the concentrations of pesticides in farm ponds resulting from episodic pesticide application than corresponding steady-state models. The time dependent model is particularly useful in describing the behaviour of highly hydrophobic pesticides that have a potential to biomagnify in aquatic food-webs.

Predicting pesticide fate in small cultivated mountain watersheds using the DynAPlus model: Toward improved assessment of peak exposure

The use of plant protection products (PPPs) in agricultural areas implies potential chemical loadings to surface waters, which can pose a risk to aquatic ecosystems and human health. Due to the spatio-temporal variability of PPP applications and of the processes regulating their transport to surface waters, aquatic organisms are typically exposed to pulses of contaminants. In small mountain watersheds, where runoff fluxes are more rapid due to the steep slopes, such exposure peaks are particularly likely to occur. In this work, a spatially explicit, dynamic model for predicting pesticide exposure in surface waters of cultivated mountain basins (DynAPlus) has been developed. The model has been applied to a small mountain watershed (133km²) located in the Italian Eastern Alps and characterized by intensive agriculture (apple orchards) around the main river and its tributaries. DynAPlus performance was evaluated for chlorpyrifos through experimental monitoring, using samples collected during the 2011 and 2012 productive seasons. The comparison between predictions and measurements resulted in a good agreement (R²=0.49, efficiency factor 0.60), although a more accurate spatial information in the input scenario (e.g., field-specific applications, rainfall amount, soil properties) would dramatically improve model performance. A set of illustrative simulations performed for three PPPs highlighted the potential role of DynAPlus in improving exposure predictions for ecological risk assessment and pesticide management practices (e.g., for active ingredient and application rate selection), as well as for planning efficient monitoring campaigns and/or interpreting monitoring data. However, some model improvements (e.g., solid erosion and transport) and a more thorough model validation are desirable to enlarge the applicability domain.

Environmental fate and exposure models: advances and challenges in 21st century chemical risk assessment

Environmental fate and exposure models are a powerful means to integrate information on chemicals, their partitioning and degradation behaviour, the environmental scenario and the emissions in order to compile a picture of chemical distribution and fluxes in the multimedia environment. A 1995 pioneering book, resulting from a series of workshops among model developers and users, reported the main advantages and identified needs for research in the field of multimedia fate models. Considerable efforts were devoted to their improvement in the past 25 years and many aspects were refined; notably the inclusion of nanomaterials among the modelled substances, the development of models at different spatial and temporal scales, the estimation of chemical properties and emission data, the incorporation of additional environmental media and processes, the integration of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the simulations. However, some challenging issues remain and require research efforts and attention: the need of methods to estimate partition coefficients for polar and ionizable chemical in the environment, a better description of bioavailability in different environments as well as the requirement of injecting more ecological realism in exposure predictions to account for the diversity of ecosystem structures and functions in risk assessment. Finally, to transfer new scientific developments into the realm of regulatory risk assessment, we propose the formation of expert groups that compare, discuss and recommend model modifications and updates and help develop practical tools for risk assessment.

Do environmental dynamics matter in fate models? Exploring scenario dynamics for a terrestrial and an aquatic system

Nowadays, there is growing interest in inserting more ecological realism into risk assessment of chemicals. On the exposure evaluation side, this can be done by studying the complexity of exposure in the ecosystem, niche partitioning, e.g. variation of the exposure scenario. Current regulatory predictive approaches, to ensure simplicity and predictive ability, generally keep the scenario as static as possible. This could lead to under or overprediction of chemical exposure depending on the chemical and scenario simulated. To account for more realistic exposure conditions, varying temporally and spatially, additional scenario complexity should be included in currently used models to improve their predictive ability. This study presents two case studies (a terrestrial and an aquatic one) in which some polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were simulated with the SoilPlusVeg and ChimERA models to show the importance of scenario variation in time (biotic and abiotic compartments). The results outlined the importance of accounting for planetary boundary layer variation and vegetation dynamics to accurately predict air concentration changes and the timing of chemical dispersion from the source in terrestrial systems. For the aquatic exercise, the results indicated the need to account for organic carbon forms (particulate and dissolved organic carbon) and vegetation biomass dynamics. In both cases the range of variation was up to two orders of magnitude depending on the congener and scenario, reinforcing the need for incorporating such knowledge into exposure assessment.

Toward refined environmental scenarios for ecological risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals in freshwater environments

Current regulatory practice for chemical risk assessment suffers from the lack of realism in conventional frameworks. Despite significant advances in exposure and ecological effect modeling, the implementation of novel approaches as high-tier options for prospective regulatory risk assessment remains limited, particularly among general chemicals such as down-the-drain ingredients. While reviewing the current state of the art in environmental exposure and ecological effect modeling, we propose a scenario-based framework that enables a better integration of exposure and effect assessments in a tiered approach. Global- to catchment-scale spatially explicit exposure models can be used to identify areas of higher exposure and to generate ecologically relevant exposure information for input into effect models. Numerous examples of mechanistic ecological effect models demonstrate that it is technically feasible to extrapolate from individual-level effects to effects at higher levels of biological organization and from laboratory to environmental conditions. However, the data required to parameterize effect models that can embrace the complexity of ecosystems are large and require a targeted approach. Experimental efforts should, therefore, focus on vulnerable species and/or traits and ecological conditions of relevance. We outline key research needs to address the challenges that currently hinder the practical application of advanced model-based approaches to risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:233-248. © 2016 SETAC.

European environmental scenarios of chemical bioavailability in freshwater systems

In exposure prediction for environmental risk assessment, the transition to more dynamic and realistic modelling approaches and scenarios has been recently identified as a major challenge, since it would allow a more accurate prediction of bioavailable concentrations and their variations in space and time. In this work, an improved version of the multimedia model ChimERA fate, including a phytoplankton compartment and equations to calculate phytoplankton, detritus and dissolved organic matter variations in time, was developed. The model was parameterized to simulate five dynamic scenarios for shallow meso-eutrophic water bodies based on a latitudinal gradient (in Europe); such scenarios include seasonal profiles of water temperature, phytoplankton biomass, detritus, and dissolved organic matter. Model runs were performed for each scenario for 8 hydrophobic chemicals (PCB congeners), with the aim of investigating the influence of scenario characteristics and compound properties on bioavailable concentrations. The key processes were adsorption/uptake by phytoplankton and deposition to sediment of detritus-bound chemicals. The northern scenarios ("Scandinavia" and "UK") showed the highest bioavailable concentrations, with annual maximum/minimum concentration up to 25; in contrast, for example, maximum concentrations in the "Mediterranean" scenario were lower by a factor of 2 to 9 with respect to the northern ones (depending on chemical hydrophobicity), due to the generally higher biomass and carbon levels, and showed only limited seasonal variability (up to a factor of 4). These results highlight the importance of including biomass and organic carbon dynamics in both modelling approaches and scenarios for the evaluation of exposure concentrations in aquatic environments.

Vegetated Ditches for the Mitigation of Pesticides Runoff in the Po Valley

In intensive agricultural systems runoff is one of the major potential diffuse pollution pathways for pesticides and poses a risk to surface water. Ditches are common in the Po Valley and can potentially provide runoff mitigation for the protection of watercourses. The effectiveness depends on ditch characteristics, so there is an urgent need for site-specific field trials. The use of a fugacity model (multimedia model) can allows recognition of the mitigation main processes. A field experiment was conducted in order to evaluate the mitigation capacity of a typical vegetated ditch, and results were compared with predictions by a fugacity model. To evaluate herbicide mitigation after an extreme runoff, the ditch was flooded with water containing mesotrione, S-metolachlor and terbuthylazine. Two other subsequent floods with uncontaminated water were applied 27 and 82 days later to evaluate herbicides release. Results show that the ditch can immediately reduce runoff concentration of herbicides by at least 50% even in extreme flooding conditions. The half-distances were about 250 m. As a general rule, a runoff of 1 mm from 5 ha is mitigated by 99% in 100 m of vegetated ditch. Herbicides retention in the vegetated ditch was reversible, and the second flood mobilized 0.03-0.2% of the previous one, with a concentration below the drinking water limit of 0.1 μg L(-1). No herbicide was detected in the third flood, because the residual amount in the ditch was too low. Fugacity model results show that specific physical-chemical parameters may be used and a specific soil-sediment-plant compartment included for modelling herbicides behaviour in a vegetated ditch, and confirm that accumulation is low or negligible for herbicides with a half-life of 40 days or less. Shallow vegetated ditches can thus be included in a general agri-environment scheme for the mitigation of pesticides runoff together with wetlands and linear buffer strips. These structures are present in the landscape, and their environmental role can be exploited by proper management.