Modelling ecological and human exposure to POPs in Venice lagoon - Part II: Quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in coupled exposure models

The Application of a Physiologically Based Toxicokinetic Model in Health Risk Assessment

Toxicokinetics plays a crucial role in the health risk assessments of xenobiotics. Classical compartmental models are limited in their ability to determine chemical concentrations in specific organs or tissues, particularly target organs or tissues, and their limited interspecific and exposure route extrapolation hinders satisfactory health risk assessment. In contrast, physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models quantitatively describe the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion of chemicals across various exposure routes and doses in organisms, establishing correlations with toxic effects. Consequently, PBTK models serve as potent tools for extrapolation and provide a theoretical foundation for health risk assessment and management. This review outlines the construction and application of PBTK models in health risk assessment while analyzing their limitations and future perspectives.

Extending Regulatory Biokinetic Lead Models towards Food Safety: Evaluation of Consumer Baby Food Contribution to Infant Blood Lead Levels and Variability

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration released proposed lead (Pb) action levels for foods intended for babies and young children in January 2023 based on the agency's interim reference value of 2.2 µg/day for dietary Pb. Since the 1980s, biokinetic models have estimated blood lead levels (BLLs) associated with environmental contamination, but their use in food safety assessment has been limited. We compared three recent biokinetic models (IEUBK Model, ICRP Model Version 5, and AALM) to develop insights on contributors to variability in potential exposures to Pb in consumer baby food products. While modest variation was observed for babies, the predictions trended to convergence for children aged 3 and older, approaching the U.S. FDA dietary conversion factor of 0.16 µg Pb/dL blood per µg Pb intake/day. We applied the IEUBK model in a probabilistic exposure assessment framework characterizing the distribution of Pb in soil, dust, water, and food intake in the United States. Soil and dust were the primary contributors to variance in infant BLLs, while food and water contributed <15% combined. Thus, reductions in upper-bound soil and dust concentrations will be necessary before achieving appreciable reductions in the frequency of BLLs greater than the BLRV of 3.5 µg/dL.

Modeling the migration of chemicals from food contact materials to food: The MERLIN-expo/VERMEER toolbox

Evaluating the migration of chemicals from food contact materials (FCM) into food is a key step in the safety assessment of such materials. In this paper, a simple mechanistic model describing the migration of chemicals from FCM to food was combined with quantitative property-property relationships (QPPRs) for the prediction of diffusion coefficients and FCM-Food partition coefficients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the performance of these operational models in the prediction of a chemical's concentration in food in contact with a plastic monolayer FCM. A comparison to experimental migration values reported in literature was conducted. Deterministic simulations showed a good match between predicted and experimental values. The tested models can be used to provide insights in the amount and the type of toxicological data that are needed for the safety evaluation of the FCM substance. Uncertainty in QPPRs used for describing the processes of both diffusion in FCM and partition at the FCM-Food interface was included in the analysis. Combining uncertainty in QPPR predictions, it was shown that the third quartile (75th percentile) derived from probabilistic calculations can be used as a conservative value in the prediction of chemical concentration in food, with reasonable safety factors.

A probabilistic model for assessing uncertainty and sensitivity in the prediction of monochloramine loss in French river waters

Monochloramine (NH₂Cl) is increasingly used as alternative disinfectant to free chlorine in industrial plants. After use in cooling systems, the waters are released to the environment and residual NH₂Cl may be discharged into the receiving waters. As NH₂Cl is suspected to exhibit toxicity towards aquatic organisms, a proper risk assessment of its occurrence in environmental waters is needed to prevent adverse effects on wildlife. For this purpose, a comprehensive model simulating monochloramine loss in natural riverine waters was developed. This model incorporates the following processes: (i) autodecomposition; (ii) reaction with nitrite and bromide; (iii) oxidation with Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC); (iv) oxidation with organic fraction of Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM); (v) reactions in bottom sediments and (vi) volatilization. The model was also designed to conduct uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. It was tested on several French rivers submitted to discharges of monochloraminated effluents and on several seasonal conditions. Uncertainty analysis allowed evaluation of confidence intervals related to NH₂Cl half-lives in natural waters. It was shown that simulation intervals are in good agreement with experimental data obtained on the same rivers. Sensitivity analysis using an EFAST variance decomposition approach allowed identification of the most influential parameters on half-life determination. It was shown that the kinetic rate describing rapid reaction of NH₂Cl with DOC is by far the most sensitive parameter, demonstrating the predominance of such reactions in the loss process. Variables or parameters involved in temperature dependence (temperature and activation energy) can also significantly influence model results. To a lesser extent, wind velocity is the most sensitive parameter explaining uncertainty in the prediction of volatilization, with a high level of interactions with other parameters, showing that loss through volatilization can be essential in some specific conditions only. This study then identified the most important research priorities for improving the prediction of NH₂Cl half-lives in natural rivers.

A comprehensive probabilistic approach for integrating and separating natural variability and parametric uncertainty in the prediction of distribution coefficient of radionuclides in rivers

A geochemical speciation model was developed to predict Distribution coefficients (K_ds) of radionuclides (RNs) in rivers. The model takes into account complexation of RNs with inorganic ligands, sorption of RNs with hydrous ferric oxides, complexation of RNs with dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC) and sorption and/or co-precipitation of RNs to carbonates. A sorption model of Cs onto clay was also integrated. The tool is also designed to conduct uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis follows a stepwise structured approach, starting from computationally 'inexpensive' Morris method to most costly variance-based EFAST method. A nested Monte Carlo approach was also implemented to separate natural variability and lack of knowledge in global uncertainty assessment. As case studies, K_d distributions were estimated for Co, Mn, Ag and Cs in seven French rivers. Uncertainty analysis allowed to quantify K_d ranges that can be expected when considering all the sensitive parameters together.

Bioaccumulation, Biotransformation, and Multicompartmental Toxicokinetic Model of Antibiotics in Sea Cucumber (Apostichopus japonicus)

Extensive application of antibiotics leads to their ubiquitous occurrence in coastal aquatic environments. However, it remains largely unknown whether antibiotics can be bioaccumulated and biotransformed in major mariculture organisms such as sea cucumbers and toxicokinetic models for Echinodermata are lacking. In this study, laboratory exposure experiments on juvenile sea cucumber (Apostichopus japonicus) were performed for seven antibiotics (sulfadiazine, sulfamethoxazole, trimethoprim, enrofloxacin, ofloxacin, clarithromycin, and azithromycin). Field sea cucumber and surrounding seawater samples were also analyzed. Results show that the sea cucumbers tend to accumulate high concentrations of the antibiotics with kinetic bioconcentration factors (BCFs) up to 1719.7 L·kg^-1 for ofloxacin. The BCFs determined in the laboratory agree well with those estimated from the field measurements. Seven biotransformation products (BTPs) of the antibiotics were identified, four of which were not reported previously in aquatic organisms. The BTPs were mainly found in the digestive tract, indicating its high capacity in the biotransformation. A multicompartmental toxicokinetic model based on the principles of passive diffusion was developed, which can successfully predict time-course concentrations of the antibiotics in different compartments of the juvenile sea cucumbers. The findings may offer a scientific basis for assessing health risks and guiding healthy mariculture of sea cucumbers.

Modelling scenarios of environmental recovery after implementation of controls on emissions of persistent organic pollutants

Comparison of monitoring data with toxicologically-derived environmental quality standards (EQSs) forms the basis of assessments of the quality status of the water environment. Having established the status quo, the logical next step is to address instances of non-compliance with EQSs by applying remedial measures, including reducing the use or at least the emission of the substances of concern or by taking steps to reduce concentrations already present using technological solutions such as enhanced wastewater treatment. The selection of suitable remedial measures must be a compromise between cost, likely effectiveness and the timescale over which improvements might be acceptable. The decision on overall environmental management has also to take into account the need for demonstrable progress; this might mean that it is preferable to address some more readily achievable goal rather than to attempt to solve a more serious, but ultimately intractable problem. This paper describes the development and application of a generic modelling tool that provides a way of assessing the potential requirements for remedial actions and their likely outcomes over a timescale of up to forty years taking account of sediment partitioning, environmental degradation and biological accumulation. The tool was validated using a detailed UK wastewater treatment works effluent discharge dataset. Examples involving several chemicals that are of current concern are provided. Some substances (e.g. tributyltin, PFOS) are identified as likely to meet EQS values in sediments or biota in a relatively short timescale; others (PAHs, DEHP) appear to represent more intractable problems.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Flux-based Ecosystem Model towards Improvement of Forest GPP Simulation

An ecosystem model serves as an important tool to understand the carbon cycle in the forest ecosystem. However, the sensitivities of parameters and uncertainties of the model outputs are not clearly understood. Parameter sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty analysis (UA) play a crucial role in the improvement of forest gross primary productivity GPP simulation. This study presents a global SA based on an extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST) method to quantify the sensitivities of 16 parameters in the Flux-based ecosystem model (FBEM). To systematically evaluate the parameters’ sensitivities, various parameter ranges, different model outputs, temporal variations of parameters sensitivity index (SI) were comprehensively explored via three experiments. Based on the numerical experiments of SA, the UA experiments were designed and performed for parameter estimation based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The ratio of internal CO2 to air CO2 ( f C i ) , canopy quantum efficiency of photon conversion ( α q ) , maximum carboxylation rate at 25 ° C ( V m 25 ) were the most sensitive parameters for the GPP. It was also indicated that α q , E V m and Q 10 were influenced by temperature throughout the entire growth stage. The result of parameter estimation of only using four sensitive parameters (RMSE = 1.657) is very close to that using all the parameters (RMSE = 1.496). The results of SA suggest that sensitive parameters, such as f c i , α q , E V m , V m 25 strongly influence on the forest GPP simulation, and the temporal characteristics of the parameters’ SI on GPP and NEE were changed in different growth. The sensitive parameters were a major source of uncertainty and parameter estimation based on the parameter SA could lead to desirable results without introducing too great uncertainties.

Prediction of maternal and foetal exposures to perfluoroalkyl compounds in a Spanish birth cohort using toxicokinetic modelling

Prenatal exposures to perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) have been associated with child health outcomes, but many of these associations remain poorly characterized. The aim of this work was to provide new indicators of foetal exposure for the Spanish INMA birth cohort. First, a pregnancy and lactation physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was calibrated in a population framework to provide quantitative estimates for the PFOA and PFOS placental transfers in humans. The estimated distributions indicated that PFOA crosses the placental barrier at a rate three times higher than PFOS and shows a higher variability between mothers. The PBPK model was then used to back-calculate the time-varying daily intakes of the INMA mothers corrected for their individual history from a spot maternal concentration. We showed the importance of accounting for the mothers' history as different dietary intakes can result in similar measured concentrations at one time point. Finally, the foetal exposure was simulated in target organs over pregnancy using the PBPK model and the estimated maternal intakes. We showed that the pattern of PFOA and PFOS exposures varies greatly among the foetuses. About a third has levels of either one compound always higher than the levels of the other compound. The other two thirds showed different ranking of PFOA and PFOS in terms of concentrations in the target organs. Our simulated foetal exposures bring additional information to the measured maternal spot concentrations and can help to better characterize the prenatal exposure in target organs during windows of susceptibility.

Characterizing export of land-based microplastics to the estuary - Part II: Sensitivity analysis of an integrated geospatial microplastic transport modeling assessment of tire and road wear particles

Integrated models addressing microplastic (MP) generation, terrestrial distribution, and freshwater transport are useful tools characterizing the export of MP to marine waters. In Part I of this study, a baseline watershed-scale MP mass balance model was developed for tire and road wear particles (TRWP) in the Seine watershed. In Part II, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (SA) methods were used to identify the parameters that determine the transport of these particles to the estuary. Local differential, local range and global first-order variance-based SA identified similar key parameters. The global SA (1000 Monte Carlo simulations) indicated that most of the variance in TRWP exported to the estuary can be apportioned to TRWP diameter (76%), TRWP density (5.6%), the fraction of TRWP directed to combined sewers with treatment (3.9%), and the fraction of TRWP distributed to runoff (versus roadside soil; 2.2%). The export fraction was relatively insensitive to heteroaggregation processes and the rainfall intensity threshold for road surface washoff. The fraction of TRWP exported to estuary in the probabilistic assessment was centered on the baseline estimate of 2%. This fraction ranged from 1.4 to 4.9% (central tendency defined as 25th to 75th percentile) and 0.97% to 13% (plausible upper bound defined as 10th to 90th percentiles). This study emphasizes the importance of in situ characterization of TRWP diameter and density, and confirms the baseline mass balance presented in Part I, which indicated an appreciable potential for capture of TRWP in freshwater sediment.

Bioaccumulation of trace metals in aquatic food web. A case study, Liaodong Bay, NE China

The recently developed modelling tool MERLIN-Expo was applied to support the exposure assessment of an aquatic food web to trace metals in a coastal environment. The exposure scenario, built on the data from Daliao River estuary in the Liaodong Bay (Bohai Sea, China), affected by long-term and large-scale industrial activities as well as rapid urbanization in Liao River watershed, represents an interesting case-study for ecological exposure modelling due to the availability of local data on metal concentrations in water and sediment. The bioaccumulation of selected trace metals in aquatic organisms was modelled and compared with field data from local aquatic organisms. Both model results and experimental data demonstrated that As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn, out of examined metals, were accumulated most abundantly by invertebrates and less by higher trophic level species. The body parts of the sampled animals with the highest measured concentration of metals were predominantly muscles, intestine and liver and fish skin in the case of Cr. The Morris and extended Fourier Analysis (EFAST) were used to account for variability in selected parameters of the bioaccumulation model. Food assimilation efficiency and slopes and intercepts of two sub-models for calculating metal specific BCFs (BCF_metal-exposure concentration) and fish weight (Weight_fish-Length_fish) were identified as the most influential parameters on ecological exposure to selected metals.

A comprehensive probabilistic approach for integrating natural variability and parametric uncertainty in the prediction of trace metals speciation in surface waters

The main objectives of this study were to evaluate global uncertainty in the prediction of Distribution coefficients (Kds) for several Trace Metals (TM) (Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn) through the probabilistic use of a geochemical speciation model, and to conduct sensitivity analysis in speciation modeling in order to identify the main sources of uncertainty in Kd prediction. As a case study, data from the Loire river (France) were considered. The geochemical speciation model takes into account complexation of TM with inorganic ligands, sorption of TM with hydrous ferric oxides, complexation of TM with dissolved and particulate organic matter (i.e. dissolved and particulate humic acids and fulvic acids) and sorption and/or co-precipitation of TM to carbonates. Probability Density Functions (PDFs) were derived for physico-chemical conditions of the Loire river from a comprehensive collection of monitoring data. PDFs for model parameters were derived from literature review. Once all the parameters were assigned PDFs that describe natural variability and/or knowledge uncertainty, a stepwise structured sensitivity analysis (SA) was performed, by starting from computationally 'inexpensive' Morris method to most costly variance-based EFAST method. The most sensitive parameters on Kd predictions were thus ranked and their contribution to Kd variance was quantified. Uncertainty analysis was finally performed, allowing quantifying Kd ranges that can be expected when considering all the sensitive parameters together.

Ecological and human exposure assessment to PBDEs in Adige River

The interest for environmental issues and the concern resulting from the potential exposure to contaminants were the starting point to develop methodologies in order to evaluate the consequences that those might have over both the environment and human health. Considering the feature of POPs, including PBDEs, such as bioaccumulation, biomagnification, long-range transport and adverse effects even long time after exposure, risk assessment of POPs requires specific approaches and tools. In this particular context, the MERLIN-Expo tool was used to assess the aquatic environmental exposure of Adige River to PBDEs and the accumulation of PBDEs in humans through the consumption of possible contaminated local aquatic food. The aquatic food web models provided as output of the deterministic simulation the time trend of concentrations for twenty years of BDE-47 and total PBDEs, expressed using the physico-chemical properties of BDE-47, in aquatic organisms of the food web of Adige River. For BDE-47, the highest accumulated concentrations were detected for two benthic species: Thymallus thymallus and Squalius cephalus whereas the lowest concentrations were obtained for the pelagic specie Salmo trutta marmoratus. The trend obtained for the total PBDEs, calculated using the physico-chemical properties of BDE-47, follows the one of BDE-47. For human exposure, different BDE-47 and total PBDEs concentration trends between children, adolescent, adults and elderly were observed, probably correlated with the human intake of fish products in the daily diet and the ability to metabolize these contaminants. In detail, for the adolescents, adults and elderly a continuous accumulation of the target contaminants during the simulation's years was observed, whereas for children a plateau at the end of the simulation period was perceived.

A novel hazard assessment method for biomass gasification stations based on extended set pair analysis

Biomass gasification stations are facing many hazard factors, therefore, it is necessary to make hazard assessment for them. In this study, a novel hazard assessment method called extended set pair analysis (ESPA) is proposed based on set pair analysis (SPA). However, the calculation of the connection degree (CD) requires the classification of hazard grades and their corresponding thresholds using SPA for the hazard assessment. In regard to the hazard assessment using ESPA, a novel calculation algorithm of the CD is worked out when hazard grades and their corresponding thresholds are unknown. Then the CD can be converted into Euclidean distance (ED) by a simple and concise calculation, and the hazard of each sample will be ranked based on the value of ED. In this paper, six biomass gasification stations are introduced to make hazard assessment using ESPA and general set pair analysis (GSPA), respectively. By the comparison of hazard assessment results obtained from ESPA and GSPA, the availability and validity of ESPA can be proved in the hazard assessment for biomass gasification stations. Meanwhile, the reasonability of ESPA is also justified by the sensitivity analysis of hazard assessment results obtained by ESPA and GSPA.

Potential for MERLIN-Expo, an advanced tool for higher tier exposure assessment, within the EU chemical legislative frameworks

MERLIN-Expo merges and integrates advanced exposure assessment methodologies, allowing the building of complex scenarios involving several pollution sources and targets. The assessment of exposure and risks to human health from chemicals is of major concern for policy and ultimately benefits all citizens. The development and operational fusion of the advanced exposure assessment methodologies envisaged in the MERLIN-Expo tool will have a significant impact in the long term on several policies dealing with chemical safety management. There are more than 30 agencies in Europe related to exposure and risk evaluation of chemicals, which have an important role in implementing EU policies, having especially tasks of technical, scientific, operational and/or regulatory nature. The main purpose of the present paper is to introduce MERLIN-Expo and to highlight its potential for being effectively integrated within the group of tools available to assess the risk and exposure of chemicals for EU policy. The main results show that the tool is highly suitable for use in site-specific or local impact assessment, with minor modifications it can also be used for Plant Protection Products (PPPs), biocides and REACH, while major additions would be required for a comprehensive application in the field of consumer and worker exposure assessment.