Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals

Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China

Background

With the intensification of global climate warming, extreme low temperature events such as cold spells have become an increasingly significant threat to public health. Few studies have examined the relationship between cold spells and mortality in multiple Chinese provinces.

Methods

We employed health impact functions for temperature and mortality to quantify the health risks of the first winter cold spell in China on November 26th, 2022, and analyzed the reasons for the stronger development of the cold spell in terms of the circulation field.

Results

This cold spell was a result of the continuous reinforcement of the blocking high-pressure system in the Ural Mountains, leading to the deepening of the cold vortex in front of it. Temperature changes associated with the movement of cold fronts produced additional mortality risks and mortality burdens. In general, the average excess risk (ER) of death during the cold spell in China was 2.75%, with a total cumulative excess of 369,056 deaths. The health risks associated with temperatures were unevenly distributed spatially in China, with the ER values ranging from a minimum of 0.14% to a maximum of 5.72%, and temperature drops disproportionately affect southern regions of China more than northern regions. The cumulative excess deaths exibited the highest in eastern and central China, with 87,655 and 80,230 respectively, and the lowest in northwest China with 27,474 deaths. Among the provinces, excess deaths pronounced the highest in Shandong with 29,492 and the lowest in Tibet with only 196.

Conclusion

The study can provide some insight into the mortality burden of cold spells in China, while emphasising the importance of understanding the complex relationship between extreme low temperature events and human health. The outcomes could provide valuable revelations for informing pertinent public health policies.

An extreme wind speed climatology - Atmospheric driver identification using neural networks

Extreme wind speeds are a significant climate risk, potentially endangering human lives, causing damage to infrastructure, affecting maritime and aviation activity, along with the optimal operation of wind energy conversion systems. In this context, accurate knowledge of return levels for various return periods of extreme wind speeds and their atmospheric circulation drivers is essential for effective risk management. In this paper, location-specific extreme wind speed thresholds are identified and return levels of extremes are estimated using the Peaks-Over-Threshold method of the Extreme Value Analysis framework. Furthermore, using an environment-to-circulation approach, the key atmospheric circulation patterns that cause extreme wind speeds are identified. The data used for this analysis are hourly wind speed data, mean sea level pressure and geopotential at 500 hPa from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, at a horizontal resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. The thresholds are selected utilizing the Mean Residual Life plots, while the exceedances are modeled with the General Pareto Distribution. The diagnostic metrics exhibit satisfactory goodness-of-fit and the maxima of extreme wind speed return levels are located over marine and coastal areas. The optimal Self-Organizing-Map (2 × 2) is selected using the Davies-Bouldin criterion, and the atmospheric circulation patterns are related to the cyclonic activity in the area. The proposed methodological framework can be applied to other areas, that are endangered by extreme phenomena or in need of accurately assessing the principal drivers of extremes.

The influence of weather types over northern Greece on respiratory and cardio-vascular mortality

Extreme ambient temperatures are well-known for their adverse impact on public health, in the form of increased mortality and morbidity due to respiratory and cardio-vascular diseases. However, to capture the total impact of weather on cause-specific mortality/morbidity, the synoptic atmospheric conditions over the region under study need to be taken into account. The objective of this work is to identify weather types over Thessaloniki, Greece, statistically associated with mortality from circulatory and respiratory diseases, in an attempt to holistically determine the impact of weather on cause-specific mortality in the region. For this purpose, we employed datasets from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis comprising intrinsic daily data, gridded at a resolution of 2.5°×2.5° and covering a 41-year period (1980-2020). The first set used contains data of 500 hPa and 1,000 hPa geopotential heights for the main geographical domain of the Mediterranean region (30°N-45°N, 10°Ε-35°E). The second set comprises meteorological variables (2 m temperature, specific humidity, 2 m zonal and 2 m meridional wind and total cloud cover) for a geographical domain of north Greece (40.95°Ν, 22.50°Ε-26.25°E). We applied a combination of principal components analysis (PCA) as a dimensionality reduction tool and k-means cluster analysis (CA) in order to group days with homogeneous synoptic meteorological parameters. The derived weather types were statistically correlated with respiratory and mortality data for the time-period 1999-2018. It was concluded that the most fatal conditions for public health in Thessaloniki were associated with weather types bringing low/extremely low ambient temperature over north Greece.

Developing a Cold-Related Mortality Database in Bangladesh

The aim of this study was to develop a database of historical cold-related mortality in Bangladesh using information obtained from online national newspapers and to analyze such data to understand the spatiotemporal distribution, demographic dynamics, and causes of deaths related to cold temperatures in winter. We prepared a comprehensive database containing information relating to the winter months (December to February) of 2009-2021 for the eight administrative divisions of Bangladesh and systematically removed redundant records. We found that 1249 people died in Bangladesh during this period due to cold and cold-related illnesses, with an average of 104.1 deaths per year. The maximum number of cold-related deaths (36.51%) occurred in the Rangpur Division. The numbers were much higher here than in the other divisions because Rangpur has the lowest average monthly air temperature during the winter months and the poorest socioeconomic conditions. The primary peak of cold-related mortality occurred during 21-31 December, when cold fronts from the Himalayas entered Bangladesh through the Rangpur Division in the north. A secondary peak occurred on 11-20 January each year. Our results also showed that most of the cold-related mortality cases occurred when the daily maximum temperature was lower than 21 °C. Demographically, the highest number of deaths was observed in children aged six years and under (50.68%), followed by senior citizens 65 years and above (20.42%). Fewer females died than males, but campfire burns were the primary cause of female deaths. Most mortality in Bangladesh was due to the cold (75.5%), cold-triggered illness (10.65%), and campfire burns (5.8%). The results of this research will assist policymakers in understanding the importance of taking necessary actions that protect vulnerable public health from cold-related hazards in Bangladesh.

Study on Environmental and Lifestyle Factors for the North-South Differential of Cardiovascular Disease in China

Human death and life span are closely related to the geographical environment and regional lifestyle. These factors considerably vary among counties and regions, leading to the geographical disparity of disease. Quantitative studies on this phenomenon are insufficient. Cerebrovascular and heart diseases are the leading causes of death. The mortality rate of cerebrovascular and heart diseases is statistically higher in northern China than in southern China; the p-value of t-test for cerebrovascular and heart diseases was 0.047 and 0.000, respectively. The population attribution fraction of 12 major risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in each province was calculated based on their exposure and relative risk. The results found that residents in northern China consume high sodium-containing food, fewer vegetables, and less sea food products, and tend to be overweight. Fine particulate matter is higher in northern China than in southern China. Cold temperatures also cause a greater number of deaths than hot temperatures. All these factors have resulted in a higher CVD mortality rate in northern China. The attributive differential for sodium, vegetable, fruit, smoking, PM_2.5, omega-3, obesity, low temperature, and high temperature of heart disease between the two parts of China is 9.1, 0.7, -2.5, 0.1, 1.4, 1.3, 2.0, 4.7, and -2.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the attributive differential for the above factors of cerebrovascular disease between the two parts of China is 8.7, 0.0, -5.2, 0.1, 1.0, 0.0, 2.4, 4.7, and -2.1%. Diet high in sodium is the leading cause of the north-south differential in CVD, resulting in 0.71 less years of life expectancy in northern compared with that in southern China.

Intensified impacts on mortality due to compound winter extremes in the Czech Republic

Although impacts of extremely cold temperatures on human health have been widely studied, adverse effects of other extreme weather phenomena have so far received much less attention. We employed a high-quality long-term mortality time series (1982-2017) to evaluate impacts of extreme winter weather in the Czech Republic. We aimed to clarify whether compound events of extreme weather cause larger impacts on mortality than do each type of extreme if evaluated individually. Using daily data from the E-OBS and ERA5 datasets, we analyzed 9 types of extreme events: extreme wind gust, precipitation, snowfall, and sudden temperature and pressure changes. Relative mortality deviations from the adjusted baseline were used to estimate the immediate effect of the selected extreme events on excess mortality. The impact was adjusted for the effect of extreme cold. Extreme events associated with sudden rise of minimum temperature and pressure drops had generally significant impact on excess mortality (3.7% and 1.4% increase). The impacts were even more pronounced if these events occurred simultaneously or were compounded with other types of extremes, such as heavy precipitation, snowfall, maximum temperature rise, and their combinations (increase as great as 14.4%). Effects of some compound events were significant even for combinations of extremes having no significant impact on mortality when evaluated separately. On the other hand, a "protective" effect of pressure increases reduced the risk for its compound events. Meteorological patterns during extreme events linked to excess mortality indicate passage of a low-pressure system northerly from the study domain. We identified extreme winter weather events other than cold temperatures with significant impact on excess mortality. Our results suggest that occurrence of compound extreme events strengthen the impacts on mortality and therefore analysis of multiple meteorological parameters is a useful approach in defining adverse weather conditions.

Identifying patterns of airborne pollen distribution using a synoptic climatology approach

Understanding the mechanisms of pollen release and dispersion in the atmosphere is of high importance, not only for getting an insight on the patterns of movement of these biological particles that are necessary for plants' reproduction, but also because exposure to airborne pollen is a major concern for respiratory allergies worldwide. In this work, a synoptic circulation-to-environment classification method was adopted to elucidate the relationship between distinct atmospheric patterns and pollen levels for the 11 most abundant but also allergenic taxa in Thessaloniki, Greece, for the 15-year period 1987-2001. It was found that the NW1 depressional weather type is associated with the "low winter pollen season" and high levels of pollen from Carpinus spp., Corylus spp., Cupressaceae, Platanus spp., Pinaceae, Quercus spp. and Urticaceae. In contrast, the SW1 cyclonic type is linked to the "high spring-summer pollen season" and high levels of pollen from Oleaceae and Urticaceae. On the other hand, anticyclonic weather is associated with the "summer-autumn pollen season" and high levels of Poaceae and Chenopodiaceae pollen in the atmosphere. Regional transport of Alnus pollen is linked to a strong high-pressure system centered over Italy, giving light NE winds over northern Greece. These findings shed light to the synoptic climatology of airborne pollen in Thessaloniki and could feed early-warning systems for alerting vulnerable groups of the allergic population.

Weather patterns and all-cause mortality in England, UK

Cold- and heat-related mortality poses significant public health concerns worldwide. Although there are numerous studies dealing with the association between extreme ambient temperature and mortality, only a small number adopt a synoptic climatological approach in order to understand the nature of weather systems that precipitate increases in cold- or heat-related mortality. In this paper, the Lamb Weather Type synoptic classification is used to examine the relationship between daily mortality and weather patterns across nine regions of England. Analysis results revealed that the population in England is more susceptible to cold weather. Furthermore, it was found that the Easterly weather types are the most hazardous for public health all-year-long; however, during the cold period, the results are more evident and spatially homogenous. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that the most dangerous weather conditions are not always associated with extreme (high or low) temperatures, a finding which points to the complexity of weather-related health effects and highlights the importance of a synoptic climatological approach in elucidating the relationship between temperature and mortality.

Is extreme climate or moderate climate more conducive to longevity in China?

Climate is closely related to human longevity. In China, there are many climate types. According to national population censuses from 1982 to 2000, most provinces with a high ratio of centenarians are located in western and northwestern China far from the sea; these areas are characterized by a dry, cold climate, very high altitude, very high daily temperature range, strong winds, and partial hypoxia. Meanwhile, provinces with a high ratio of nonagenarians from 1982 to 2000 are located in southern China near the sea. Previous studies have attributed the high ratio of centenarians in western and northwestern China to the extreme local climate. However, centenarians in these areas decreased greatly in 2010, whereas residents in southern China frequently reached 90 to 100 years old in 2010. This study aims to explain this strange phenomenon and find whether extreme climate in Tibetan plateau and northwestern China or moderate climate in southern China is more conducive to longevity. The study found that mortality rate in Tibetan plateau is much higher than southern China, then a population evolution experiment was proposed to compare longevity indicators between low mortality rate and high mortality rate and shows that longevity indicators will decrease in the near future and increase above their original levels after several decades when the mortality rate is decreased. Results of this study show individuals in northwestern China do not live as long as those in eastern and southern China. A moderate climate is more conducive to longevity than extreme climate in China. The longevity of a region should be judged by long-term longevity indicators.

Relationships among Environment, Climate, and Longevity in China

Human longevity is influenced by environment and nutrition. We considered environmental and nutritional factors relating to longevity in Chinese cities. We found higher 85+/65+ distribution ratios, indicating enhanced longevity, in the coastal and southern regions of China. These areas also featured higher humidity, low standard deviation of monthly temperature, higher levels of selenium (Se) distribution in soil, and greater sea fish consumption. Moderate climate is more conducive to longevity, however, there is no significant difference in longevity between different sub-climatic types within moderate climate; the relation between humidity and longevity is not always positive, the relation between altitude and longevity is not always negative. Nutritional factors like Se and omega-3 fatty acids contained in sea fish were crucial to longevity. In contrast, the consumption of meat and freshwater fish were less related to longevity. Taken together, humidity, altitude, and per capita sea fish consumption, when evaluated via geographically weighted regression, explained 66% and 68% of longevity among Chinese individuals in 2000 and 2010, respectively. Other factors require further discussion.