Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coastal waters

Hydrological models for climate-based assessments at the watershed scale: A critical review of existing hydrologic and water quality models

Global changes, including climate and land use changes, can result in significant impact to water resources. Planning for these changes requires making projections, even in the face of considerable uncertainties, to make informed management and policy decisions. A number of climate change scenarios and projections at global and regional levels are available that can be used to predict the likely range of outcomes. However, there is a need to translate these projections into potential implications for hydrology and water quality. Since there are dozens of hydrologic models, there is a need to evaluate them critically and to develop guidance regarding selecting the appropriate model for a given objective. We conducted a review of 21 different models commonly used for modeling hydrology (8), water quality (6) or both (7) at the watershed scale. Six of the models are strictly water quality models that depend on a separate model or observed data for hydrology. Seven additional models are useful for estimating hydrology and water quality simultaneously. The models were then evaluated based on ten different criteria, including functionality, scope, ability to model extreme events, data requirements, availability, and technical support, among others. The models were ranked Low, Medium or High in each of the criteria. The results indicate that three hydrologic models, MIKE-SHE, HEC-HMS, and MODHMS, as well as two full hydrology and water quality models, SWAT and WARMF, stand out in terms of functionality, availability, applicability to a wide range of watersheds and scales, ease of implementation, and availability of support. Modelers should carefully select the best model for their application, in part guided by the criteria discussed herein.

How climate change and land-use evolution relates to the non-point source pollution in a typical watershed of China

The water quality of Le 'an River Watershed (LRW) is crucial to the water environmental safety of Poyang Lake, especially the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus. The effect of climate and land use change on watershed water quality has always been under the attention of local managers. More importantly, the lack of detailed studies on climate and land use impact on river water quality has prevented sustainable water security management in the LRW. Therefore, this study aimed to quantify the weight of climate and land use on nutrient loss in the LRW, respectively. We divided the historical period (1990-2020) into six scenarios and a baseline scenario. TN and TP losses in the watershed were simulated using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and the weight of climate and land use were quantified in overall, by period, and by region. The results showed that the weight of climate was greatly higher than land use with values around 90%. However, the weight of land use had a positive cumulative effect in a certain period, and its influence could not be neglected. The climate in all scenarios led to a reduction in nutrient loss, while land use was found to slightly increase the nutrient loss yield. In addition to, unique regional topographic features, urbanization rates, and climatic conditions could cause spatial heterogeneity in the climatic and land use weights.

Plankton under Pressure: How Water Conditions Alter the Phytoplankton–Zooplankton Link in Coastal Lagoons

Transitional waters (TWs), such as coastal lagoons, are bodies of surface water at the transition between saline and freshwater domains. These environments play a vital role in guaranteeing ecosystem services, including provision of food, protection against meteorological events, as anthropogenic carbon sinks, and in filtering of pollutants. Due to the escalating overpopulation characterising coastlines worldwide, transitional systems are over-exploited, degraded, and reduced in their macroscopic features. However, information on the impact of anthropogenic pressures on planktonic organisms in these systems is still scanty and fragmented. Herein, we summarise the literature, with a special focus on coastal lagoons undergoing anthropogenic pressure. Specifically, we report on the implications of human impacts on the ecological state of plankton, i.e., a fundamental ecological component of aquatic ecosystems. Literature information indicates that human forces may alter ecosystem structures and functions in coastal lagoons, as in other TWs such as estuaries, hampering the phytoplankton–zooplankton link, i.e., the main trophic process occurring in those communities, and which sustains aquatic productivity. Changes in the dominance and lifestyle of key planktonic players, plus the invasion of ‘alien’ species, and consequent regime shifts, are among the most common outcomes of human disturbance.

Comparative study of the physiological responses of Skeletonema costatum and Thalassiosira weissflogii to initial pCO2 in batch cultures, with special reference to bloom dynamics

Extensive studies have documented the responses of diatoms to environmental drivers in the context of climate change. However, bloom dynamics are usually ignored in most studies. Here, we investigated the effects of the initial pCO₂ on the bloom characteristics of two cosmopolitan diatoms, Skeletonema costatum and Thalassiosira weissflogii. Batch cultures with two initial pCO₂ conditions (LC: 400 μatm; HC: 1000 μatm) were used to investigate bloom dynamics under current and ocean acidification scenarios. The simulated S. costatum bloom was characterized by fast accumulation, a rapid decline in biomass, and a shorter stationary phase. The T. weissflogii bloom had a longer stationary phase, and cell density remained at high levels after culturing for 19 days. The physiological performances of the two diatoms varied significantly in the different bloom phases. We found that the initial pCO₂ has modulating effects on biomass accumulation and bloom dynamics for these two diatoms. The higher initial pCO₂ enhanced the specific growth rate of T. weissflogii by 6% in the exponential phase, leading to higher cell densities, while 86% higher decay rates were observed in the HC cultures of S. costatum. Overall, ocean acidification may alter the dynamics of diatom blooms and may have profound impacts on the biological carbon pump.

Response of non-point source pollution to landscape pattern: case study in mountain-rural region, China

Landscape patterns have a substantial effect on non-point source (NPS) pollution in watersheds. Facilitating sustainable development of mountain-rural areas is a major priority for China. Knowledge of the impacts of various landscapes on water quality in these areas is critical to meeting environmental goals. This study applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to create a hydrologic and water quality model of the study watershed; then, the relationship between water quality and landscape patterns was investigated using multiple linear regression and redundancy analysis. The results show that the western sub-basins had higher nitrogen pollution loads, and the total nitrogen concentration reached a maximum value of 3.91 mg/L; the eastern sub-basins had a higher pollution load of phosphorous featured by maximum total phosphorous concentration of 2.15 mg/L. The water quality of the entire watershed in all scenarios tended to deteriorate over time. Landscape metrics accounted for 81.7% of the total variation in pollutant indicators. The percentage of forest landscape was negatively correlated with NPS pollution, while other types of landscape showed a positive correlation. The patch density, landscape shape index, and largest patch index of urban and agricultural lands were negatively correlated with pollutant concentrations. Upland landscapes contributed more pollutants than paddy fields. Some measures, e.g., returning grassland and farmland to forest in steep regions and replacing upland crops with paddy fields, were recommended for mitigating NPS pollution in the study watershed.

Multiple Evidence for Climate Patterns Influencing Ecosystem Productivity across Spatial Gradients in the Venice Lagoon

Effects of climatic changes in transitional ecosystems are often not linear, with some areas likely experiencing faster or more intense responses, which something important to consider in the perspective of climate forecasting. In this study of the Venice lagoon, time series of the past decade were used, and primary productivity was estimated from hourly oxygen data using a published model. Temporal and spatial patterns of water temperature, salinity and productivity time series were identified by applying clustering analysis. Phytoplankton and nutrient data from long-term surveys were correlated to primary productivity model outputs. pmax, the maximum oxygen production rate in a given day, was found to positively correlate with plankton variables measured in surveys. Clustering analysis showed the occurrence of summer heatwaves in 2008, 2013, 2015 and 2018 and three warm prolonged summers (2012, 2017, 2019) coincided with lower summer pmax values. Spatial effects in terms of temperature were found with segregation between confined and open areas, although the patterns varied from year to year. Production and respiration differences showed that the lagoon, despite seasonality, was overall heterotrophic, with internal water bodies having greater values of heterotrophy. Warm, dry years with high salinity had lower degrees of summer autotrophy.

Future trends of dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations in Northwestern Mediterranean coastal waters under climate change

Coastal ecosystems are amongst the most vulnerable to climate change, due to their location at the land-sea interface. In coastal waters, the nitrogen cycle can be significantly altered by rising temperatures and other factors derived from climate change, affecting phytoplankton and higher trophic levels. This research analyzes the effect of meteorological variables on dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) species in coastal inshore waters of a Northwestern Mediterranean region under climate change. We built simple mathematical schemes based on artificial neural networks (ANN), trained with field data. Then, we used regional climatic projections for the Spanish Mediterranean coast to provide inputs to the trained ANNs, and thus, allowing the estimation of future DIN trends throughout the 21st century. The results obtained indicate that nitrite and nitrate concentrations are expected to decrease mainly due to rising temperatures and decreasing continental inputs. Major changes are projected for the winter season, driven by a rise in minimum temperatures which decrease the nitrite and nitrate peaks observed at low temperatures. Ammonium concentrations are not expected to undergo a significant annual trend but may either increase or decrease during some months. These results entail a preliminary simplified approach to estimate the impact of meteorological changes on DIN concentrations in coastal waters under climate change.

Synergistic impact of socio-economic and climatic changes on the ecosystem of a deep dam reservoir: Case study of the Dobczyce dam reservoir based on a 30-year monitoring study

Climate change, increasing inequality in freshwater supply and consumption, as well as human land use activities are remarkable drivers of the alteration of the water cycle on the Earth. The aim of our research was to determine if socio-economic and climatic changes affected the ecosystem of a deep dam reservoir which is used for drinking water. A 30-years data series showed that suburbanization did not negatively affect the quality of the water. Moreover, 30 years of socio-economic and political changes resulted in land use changes (increase of forest from 45 to 50% and decrease of agricultural land from 53 to 43%) and better management of the catchment, as well as the modernization and introduction of new technologies. Furthermore, simultaneous climatic changes affected various physical and chemical features of the studied reservoir, and the most important finding is that the thermal stratification period is extended as an effect of global warming (begins earlier and lasts longer). The complexity of the processes contributing to the functioning of the ecosystem is large, so some processes might be a result of synergistic effects of global warming and socio-economic changes. Our 30-year monitoring study explicitly shows how the ecosystem of a deep dam reservoir reflected these changes.

Assessment of climate change impacts on water quality parameters of Lake Burullus, Egypt

Egyptian Mediterranean coast hosts five shallow lagoons which play a vital role in the national economy. Lake Burullus is the second largest one that is located in the Nile Delta and is connected to the Mediterranean by a narrow outlet. This lagoon faces various anthropogenic-induced implications that threat its ecosystem and biodiversity. The prime objective of this study is investigating the impacts of future climate change (CC) on its characteristics. A 2-D hydro-ecological modeling for the lagoon was implemented, using MIKE21FM. The proposed model was calibrated and validated against the collected water quality records, for two successive years (2011-2013), at twelve monitoring stations throughout the lagoon. The simulations were executed for various parameters, including water depth, salinity, DO, BOD, and nutrient components. Six simulations from different regional climate models (RCMs) were obtained and examined to extract the most accurate climatic projections for the lagoon coordinates. These climatic estimates cover three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios according to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). A moderate sea level rise (SLR), locally projected offshore from the Nile Delta coast, was obtained. The validated model was forced with the climatic and SLR projections of 2 years representing the mid and long-term future of the twenty-first century. The model results showed that the developed model is an efficient tool to simulate the lagoon characteristics. The results of the modified model showed that CC has the potential to radically alter the physical and chemical structure of Lake Burullus. The results emphasized that the lagoon is expected to be warmer and more saline. The risk of oxygen depletion is firmly predictable with significant spatial differences of DO decreasing. A prolonged residence time is expected, accompanied by an increasing trend of phosphate and chlorophyll-a and a decreasing trend of nitrate. CC impacts on Lake Burullus should be considered in its urgently required management plan.

A Multi-Risk Methodology for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in Coastal Zones

Climate change threatens coastal areas, posing significant risks to natural and human systems, including coastal erosion and inundation. This paper presents a multi-risk approach integrating multiple climate-related hazards and exposure and vulnerability factors across different spatial units and temporal scales. The multi-hazard assessment employs an influence matrix to analyze the relationships among hazards (sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and storm surge) and their disjoint probability. The multi-vulnerability considers the susceptibility of the exposed receptors (wetlands, beaches, and urban areas) to different hazards based on multiple indicators (dunes, shoreline evolution, and urbanization rate). The methodology was applied in the North Adriatic coast, producing a ranking of multi-hazard risks by means of GIS maps and statistics. The results highlight that the higher multi-hazard score (meaning presence of all investigated hazards) is near the coastline while multi-vulnerability is relatively high in the whole case study, especially for beaches, wetlands, protected areas, and river mouths. The overall multi-risk score presents a trend similar to multi-hazard and shows that beaches is the receptor most affected by multiple risks (60% of surface in the higher multi-risk classes). Risk statistics were developed for coastal municipalities and local stakeholders to support the setting of adaptation priorities and coastal zone management plans.

Nutrient addition bioassay and phytoplankton community structure monitored during autumn in Xiangxi Bay of Three Gorges Reservoir, China

The increasing freshwater ecosystem nutrient budget is a critical anthropogenic factor promoting freshwater eutrophication and episodic bloom of harmful algae which threaten water quality and public health. To understand how the eutrophic freshwater ecosystem responds in term of phytoplankton community structure dynamics to a sudden rise in nutrient concentrations, a microcosm study by nutrient addition bioassay was implemented in Xiangxi Bay (XXB) of Three Gorges Reservoir, China. Our results showed that dissolved trace elements supply adequately altered the phytoplankton community structure creating a regime shift from cyanobacteria-dominated to essentially Chlorophytes-dominated system, relative abundance (>70%). Combined N, P, and Si led to maximum growth stimulation accompanied by the highest chlorophyll yield (82.7 ± 14.01 μgL^-1) and growth rate (1.098 ± 0.12 μgL^-1d^-1). N separate additions resulted in growth responses which did not differ while P -addition differed significantly (p∠0.05) with the control justifying a P limited system. Si enrichment stimulated diatom growth, relative abundance (20.62%) and maximum utility rate (U_Si = 83.37 ± 0.33%). This study also reveals that increasing nutrient loading from anthropogenic sources adequately decrease the ecological diversity (H < 1) and community overlap (CC ≤ 0.5) intensifying competition and succession which then select the fast-growing taxa to dominate and expand. Result points to the need for multiple nutrient control of N, P and Si loading into XXB through a prudent nutrient management protocol for lasting bloom mitigation in the tributary bay.

Hydrological Alteration Index as an Indicator of the Calibration Complexity of Water Quantity and Quality Modeling in the Context of Global Change

Modeling is a useful way to understand human and climate change impacts on the water resources of agricultural watersheds. Calibration and validation methodologies are crucial in forecasting assessments. This study explores the best calibration methodology depending on the level of hydrological alteration due to human-derived stressors. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to evaluate hydrology in South-West Europe in a context of intensive agriculture and water scarcity. The Index of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) is calculated using discharge observation data. A comparison of two SWAT calibration methodologies are done; a conventional calibration (CC) based on recorded in-stream water quality and quantity and an additional calibration (AC) adding crop managements practices. Even if the water quality and quantity trends are similar between CC and AC, water balance, irrigation and crop yields are different. In the context of rainfall decrease, water yield decreases in both CC and AC, while crop productions present opposite trends (+33% in CC and −31% in AC). Hydrological performance between CC and AC is correlated to IHA: When the level of IHA is under 80%, AC methodology is necessary. The combination of both calibrations appears essential to better constrain the model and to forecast the impact of climate change or anthropogenic influences on water resources.

Remote Sensing for Optimal Estimation of Water Temperature Dynamics in Shallow Tidal Environments

Given the increasing anthropogenic pressures on lagoons, estuaries, and lakes and considering the highly dynamic behavior of these systems, methods for the continuous and spatially distributed retrieval of water quality are becoming vital for their correct monitoring and management. Water temperature is certainly one of the most important drivers that influence the overall state of coastal systems. Traditionally, lake, estuarine, and lagoon temperatures are observed through point measurements carried out during field campaigns or through a network of sensors. However, sporadic measuring campaigns or probe networks rarely attain a density sufficient for process understanding, model development/validation, or integrated assessment. Here, we develop and apply an integrated approach for water temperature monitoring in a shallow lagoon which incorporates satellite and in-situ data into a mathematical model. Specifically, we use remote sensing information to constrain large-scale patterns of water temperature and high-frequency in situ observations to provide proper time constraints. A coupled hydrodynamic circulation-heat transport model is then used to propagate the state of the system forward in time between subsequent remote sensing observations. Exploiting the satellite data high spatial resolution and the in situ measurements high temporal resolution, the model may act a physical interpolator filling the gap intrinsically characterizing the two monitoring techniques.

Modeling Flow-Ecology Responses in the Anthropocene: Challenges for Sustainable Riverine Management

Climate change will increase water stress in many regions placing greater pressures on rivers to meet human and ecological water needs. Managing rivers experiencing water stress requires a fundamental understanding of how ecosystem processes and functions respond to natural and anthropogenic drivers of flow variability and change. The field of environmental flows meets this need by defining “flow-ecology” relationships—mathematical models linking ecological characteristics and dynamics to the underlying flow regime. However, because these relationships are most often based on historical hydrologic regimes, they implicitly assume climatic stationarity. A fundamental challenge in the Anthropocene is how to model flow-ecology relationships such that the effects of nonstationarity can be captured. In the present article, we introduce a novel approach that addresses these shortcomings and show its utility through a series of conceptual and empirical examples. The framework incorporates ecological dynamics and uncertain future hydrologic conditions, as well as nonstationarity itself, thereby providing a viable framework for modeling flow-ecology responses to inform water management in a rapidly changing climate.

Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

Assessment of Anthropogenic Impact versus Climate Change on the Succession of the Diatom Community in Lugu Lake (Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China) Using the Sedimentary Record of Geochemical Elements

The lake ecosystems on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in China have degraded in recent decades under the effects of anthropogenic activities and climate change. The human impact on the oligotrophic Lugu Lake aquatic ecosystem was evaluated using the sediment records of metals, nitrogen isotopes (δ15N) and magnetic susceptibility over the past 200 years. Three periods were identified based on the trace metal and δ15N records. During the first stage (1816–1976 AD), the concentrations of metals, δ15N and magnetic susceptibility were low with small variations. The anthropogenic contributions to the inputs were also small, except for Ni, reflecting minor human activities in the watershed, and no significant change was observed in the sediment record of the diatom assemblage. During the second stage (1976–2001 AD), the concentrations of Zn and δ15N increased, as well as the anthropogenic contribution of Zn. However, no significant change was detected in the anthropogenic sources of the other metals. These results reflect the low-level use of chemical fertilizers. The major shift in the sediment diatom assemblage during this stage was mainly attributed to regional climate change. During the third stage (2001–2010 AD), the concentrations of the sedimentary metals (Ni, Cr, Mn, Cu, Hg and Al) increased rapidly, with the exception of As and Zn, and a similar increasing trend was observed in the changes by anthropogenic sources of Ni, Cr, Mn and Cu. RDA (Redundancy Analysis) and variance partitioning analysis showed that the human impact and climate proxies independently explained 31.59% and 4.26% of the change of diatom community, respectively, and the interaction between climate change and human impact accounted for 18.61% of the change of diatom community. Tourism-dominated human activities, which were reflected in the metals profiles, facilitated the dominance of eutrophic species and reduced that of oligotrophic species. The development of tourism was likely the main driving force for the succession of diatom assemblages in the third stage. In summary, the anthropogenic input of trace metals in Lugu Lake is still at a low level. However, the significant growth trend in metals over the past decade is significantly related to the change in the lake ecosystem. Therefore, the effects of human activities, especially tourism, on the watershed should be controlled for the protection of the oligotrophic Lugu Lake.

Vineyards in transition: A global assessment of the adaptation needs of grape producing regions under climate change

This paper suggests how climate change may transform vineyards. We consider changes in agro-climatic indicators derived from climatic variables as drivers for adaptation needs. We use two climate scenarios, GCM GFL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES, with 0.5° spatial resolution and daily time step forced by two emission scenarios, RCP2.6 and 6.0, to estimate the transition of potential vineyards in the major grape production world areas by the late 21st century. We present and discuss changes in three impact indicators - one drought indicator and two temperature ones - aimed at exploring the benefits of transition-based policies. The drought indicator provides insights to prepare adaptation for extreme events in probabilistic terms. The temperature indicators offer information on the transition towards suitable zones of production. Future projections suggest a lack of water to maintain current levels of production in all regions of the world. Furthermore, thermal suitability of grapevine may be greatly affected in China and the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, the possibility of quality wines is not altered within the regions with adequate suitability. Lastly, a portfolio of strategies to adapt to the future climate is presented.

Multi-Objective Calibration of a Distributed Hydrological Model in a Highly Glacierized Watershed in Central Asia

Understanding glacio-hydrological processes is crucial to water resources management, especially under increasing global warming. However, data scarcity makes it challenging to quantify the contribution of glacial melt to streamflow in highly glacierized catchments such as those in the Tienshan Mountains. This study aims to investigate the glacio-hydrological processes in the SaryDjaz-Kumaric River (SDKR) basin in Central Asia by integrating a degree-day glacier melt algorithm into the macro-scale hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. To deal with data scarcity in the alpine area, a multi-objective sensitivity analysis and a multi-objective calibration procedure were used to take advantage of all aspects of streamflow. Three objective functions, i.e., the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of logarithms (LogNS), the water balance index (WBI), and the mean absolute relative difference (MARD), were considered. Results show that glacier and snow melt-related parameters are generally sensitive to all three objective functions. Compared to the original SWAT model, simulations with a glacier module match fairly well to the observed streamflow, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) and R2 approaching 0.82 and an absolute percentage bias less than 1%. Glacier melt contribution to runoff is 30–48% during the simulation period. The approach of combining multi-objective sensitivity analysis and optimization is an efficient way to identify important hydrological processes and recharge characteristics in highly glacierized catchments.