Substantial declines in urban tree habitat predicted under climate change

Unveiling the complex networks of urban tree diversity research: A global perspective

Ecosystem services offered by urban forests must be proactively managed to remain diverse and sustainable. Recent research findings deserve a systematic synthesis to elucidate inherent knowledge structures and dynamics. This study focused on the urban tree diversity theme from 2000 to 2022. Web of Science Core Collection database provided bibliometric details on academic publications. The data-driven quantitative analysis explored research quantities, emphasis, trends, patterns, linkages, and impacts by countries, institutions, authors, journals, and citations. Publications and research topics have expanded continually, with accelerated growth in recent years. Research activities, outputs and interactions demonstrated conspicuous spatial clustering. A few countries, institutions and researchers generated a notable proportion of publications. Their scholarly contributions were visualized in knowledge graphs as complex networks of nodes and inter-node links. Keyword analysis generated a network to indicate research hotspots and frontiers to steer and prioritize future studies. Recent findings affirmed that cities can harbor substantial tree diversity due to enhanced habitat heterogeneity and successful species adaptation. Aligning tree traits with environmental conditions and management objectives can improve benefits. Urbanization can filter tree traits to shape community assemblages through stressors: habitat degradation, fragmentation and loss, in conjunction with pollution, climate change, and introduced species. Diversity preservation strategies include protecting remnant natural vegetation, connecting green spaces, and restoring complex canopy geometry and biomass structure. The emerging frontiers are marked by modeling future species distributions, leveraging technologies like remote sensing, linking ecology with human values, and committing to community-based stewardship. Management can be upgraded by interdisciplinary perspectives integrating ecological science and social engagement. The findings highlight the need for biodiversity enrichment anchored by native species, trait-matched assemblages, adaptive policies, and community participation to create livable-green cities. This review synthesizes key advances in urban tree ecology and biodiversity research to inform the planning and stewardship of resilient urban forests.

From Conservation to Connection: Exploring the Role of Nativeness in Shaping People's Relationships with Urban Trees

Deciding whether to plant native or non-native trees in public urban green spaces is becoming complex and conflicted, and decisions purely based on biotic nativeness are likely to be hamstrung as climate change and rising urban heat push many native species beyond their natural ranges. Importantly, tree selection considerations by urban planners and environmental managers will have to move beyond a primary focus on securing conservation and ecological outcomes, to elucidate and engage with a growing interest in the socio-cultural values and services of urban trees. Building on emerging theoretical perspectives, this place-based study explores the role that perceptions of nativeness have in shaping people's relationships with native and non-native urban trees and landscapes in an Australian city. Nativeness was associated with a range of subjective meanings including cultural identity, political expression, nature connection, desirable and undesirable traits, and environmental and cultural compatibility. Our findings emphasise that the ways in which urban trees and green spaces are valued and experienced is likely mediated by people's perceptions of nativeness and its importance relative to other attributes. To provision and sustain green spaces that meet the diverse needs and preferences of urban publics, planners and managers need to elucidate and incorporate the nuanced, place-based and multifaceted subjective meanings of nativeness into urban greening decision-making and practice.

Projecting Podocarpaceae response to climate change: we are not out of the woods yet

Under the changing climate, the persistence of Afrotemperate taxa may be threatened as suitable habitat availability decreases. The unique disjunct ranges of podocarps in southern Africa raise questions about the persistence of these species under climate change. Here, we identified likely environmental drivers of these distributions, characterized the current and future (2070) environmental niches, and projected distributions of four podocarp species in South Africa. Species distribution models were conducted using species locality data for Afrocarpus falcatus, Podocarpus latifolius, Pseudotropheus elongatus and Podocarpus henkelii and both historical climate data (1970-2000) and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5, 2061-2080) to estimate the current and future distributions. We also used this opportunity to identify the most important climatic variables that likely govern each species' distribution. Using niche overlap estimates, a similarity test, and indices of niche expansion, stability and unfilling, we explored how niches change under different climate scenarios. The distribution of the study species was governed by the maximum temperature of the warmest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and precipitation of the wettest, driest and warmest quarters. The current distribution of A. falcatus was predicted to expand to higher elevations under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Podocarpus henkelii was predicted to lose most of its suitable habitat under RCP 4.5 and expand under RCP 8.5; however, this was the opposite for P. elongatus and P. latifolius. Interestingly, P. elongatus, which had the smallest geographic distribution, showed the most vulnerability to climate change in comparison to the other podocarps. Mapping the distribution of podocarps and understanding the differences in their current and future climate niches provide insight into potential climate drivers of podocarp persistence and the potential for adaptation of these species. Overall, these results suggest that P. elongatus and P. henkelii may expand to novel environmental niches.

Crown dieback and mortality of urban trees linked to heatwaves during extreme drought

Cities have been described as 'heat islands' and 'dry islands' due to hotter, drier air in urban areas, relative to the surrounding landscape. As climate change intensifies, the health of urban trees will be increasingly impacted. Here, we posed the question: Is it possible to predict urban tree species mortality using (1) species climate envelopes and (2) plant functional traits? To answer these, we tracked patterns of crown dieback and recovery for 23 common urban tree and shrub species in Sydney, Australia during the record-breaking austral 2019-2020 summer. We identified 10 heat-tolerant species including five native and five exotic species, which represent climate-resilient options for urban plantings that are likely to continue to thrive for decades. Thirteen species were considered vulnerable to adverse conditions due to their mortality, poor health leading to tree removal, and/or extensive crown dieback. Crown dieback increased with increasing precipitation of the driest month of species climate of origin, suggesting that species from dry climates may be better suited for urban forests in future climates. We effectively grouped species according to their drought strategy (i.e., tolerance versus avoidance) using a simple trait-based framework that was directly linked with species mortality. The seven most climate-vulnerable species used a drought-avoidance strategy, having low wood density and high turgor loss points along with large, thin leaves with low heat tolerance. Overall, plant functional traits were better than species climate envelopes at explaining crown dieback. Recovery after stress required two mild, wet years for most species, resulting in prolonged loss of cooling benefits as well as economic losses due to replacement of dead/damaged trees. Hotter, longer, and more frequent heatwaves will require selection of more climate-resilient species in urban forests, and our results suggest that future research should focus on plant thermal traits to improve prediction models and species selection.

Effects of Climate and Drought on Stem Diameter Growth of Urban Tree Species

Urbanization and climate change are two inevitable megatrends of this century. Knowledge about the growth responses of urban trees to climate is of utmost importance towards future management of green infrastructure with the aim of a sustainable provision of the environmental ecosystem services. Using tree-ring records, this study analyzed growth response to climate by stem diameter at breast height (DBH) of 1178 trees in seven large cities worldwide, including Aesculus hippocastanum L. in Munich; Platanus × hispanica Münchh. in Paris; Quercus nigra L. in Houston; Quercus robur L. in Cape Town; Robinia pseudoacacia L. in Santiago de Chile, Munich, and Würzburg; and Tilia cordata Mill. in Berlin, Munich, and Würzburg. Climate was characterized following the de Martonne aridity index (DMI). Overall, trees showed an 8.3% lower DBH under arid than humid climate at the age of 100. Drought-tolerant tree species were overall not affected by climate. However, R. pseudoacacia showed a lower diameter when growing in semi-dry than humid climate. In contrast, drought-sensitive tree species were negatively affected by arid climate. Moreover, the effect of drought years on annual diameter increment was assessed. P. × hispanica and R. pseudoacacia appeared as the most drought-resistant species. The highest sensitivity to drought was detected in T. cordata and Q. robur. A. hippocastanum and Q. nigra showed a lower diameter growth during drought events, followed by a fast recovery. This study’s findings may contribute to a better understanding of urban tree growth reactions to climate, aiming for sustainable planning and management of urban trees.

Integrating solutions to adapt cities for climate change

Record climate extremes are reducing urban liveability, compounding inequality, and threatening infrastructure. Adaptation measures that integrate technological, nature-based, and social solutions can provide multiple co-benefits to address complex socioecological issues in cities while increasing resilience to potential impacts. However, there remain many challenges to developing and implementing integrated solutions. In this Viewpoint, we consider the value of integrating across the three solution sets, the challenges and potential enablers for integrating solution sets, and present examples of challenges and adopted solutions in three cities with different urban contexts and climates (Freiburg, Germany; Durban, South Africa; and Singapore). We conclude with a discussion of research directions and provide a road map to identify the actions that enable successful implementation of integrated climate solutions. We highlight the need for more systematic research that targets enabling environments for integration; achieving integrated solutions in different contexts to avoid maladaptation; simultaneously improving liveability, sustainability, and equality; and replicating via transfer and scale-up of local solutions. Cities in systematically disadvantaged countries (sometimes referred to as the Global South) are central to future urban development and must be prioritised. Helping decision makers and communities understand the potential opportunities associated with integrated solutions for climate change will encourage urgent and deliberate strides towards adapting cities to the dynamic climate reality.

Relating the climate envelopes of urban tree species to their drought and thermal tolerance

Analysing the climate envelope of plant species has been suggested as a tool to predict the vulnerability of tree species in future urban climates. However, there is little evidence that the climate envelope of a plant species directly relates to the drought and thermal tolerance of that species, at least not at the resolution required to identify or rank species vulnerability. Here, we attempted to predict drought and thermal tolerance of commonly used urban tree species using climate variables derived exclusively from open-source global occurrence data. We quantified three drought and thermal tolerance traits for 43 urban tree species in a common garden experiment: stomatal sensitivity to vapour pressure deficit, leaf water potential at the turgor loss point, and leaf thermal tolerance. We then attempted to predict each tolerance trait from variables derived from the climate envelope of each species, using occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. We found no strong relationships between drought and thermal tolerance traits and climatic variables. Across wide environmental gradients, plant tolerance and climate are inherently linked. But our results suggest that climate envelopes determined from species occurrence data alone may not predict drought or thermal tolerance at the resolution required to select tree species for future urban forests. We should focus on identifying the most relevant strategies and traits required to describe tolerance which in combination with climate envelope analysis should ultimately predict growth and mortality of trees in urban landscapes.

Improving Air Quality by Nitric Oxide Consumption of Climate-Resilient Trees Suitable for Urban Greening

Nitrogen oxides (NO_x), mainly a mixture of nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), are formed by the reaction of nitrogen and oxygen compounds in the air as a result of combustion processes and traffic. Both deposit into leaves via stomata, which on the one hand benefits air quality and on the other hand provides an additional source of nitrogen for plants. In this study, we first determined the NO and NO₂ specific deposition velocities based on projected leaf area (sV _d) using a branch enclosure system. We studied four tree species that are regarded as suitable to be planted under predicted future urban climate conditions: Carpinus betulus, Fraxinus ornus, Fraxinus pennsylvanica and Ostrya carpinifolia. The NO and NO₂ sV_d were found similar in all tree species. Second, in order to confirm NO metabolization, we fumigated plants with ¹⁵NO and quantified the incorporation of ¹⁵N in leaf materials of these trees and four additional urban tree species (Celtis australis, Alnus spaethii, Alnus glutinosa, and Tilia henryana) under controlled environmental conditions. Based on these ¹⁵N-labeling experiments, A. glutinosa showed the most effective incorporation of ¹⁵NO. Third, we tried to elucidate the mechanism of metabolization. Therefore, we generated transgenic poplars overexpressing Arabidopsis thaliana phytoglobin 1 or 2. Phytoglobins are known to metabolize NO to nitrate in the presence of oxygen. The ¹⁵N uptake in phytoglobin-overexpressing poplars was significantly increased compared to wild-type trees, demonstrating that the NO uptake is enzymatically controlled besides stomatal dependence. In order to upscale the results and to investigate if a trade-off exists between air pollution removal and survival probability under future climate conditions, we have additionally carried out a modeling exercise of NO and NO₂ deposition for the area of central Berlin. If the actually dominant deciduous tree species (Acer platanoides, Tilia cordata, Fagus sylvatica, Quercus robur) would be replaced by the species suggested for future conditions, the total annual NO and NO₂ deposition in the modeled urban area would hardly change, indicating that the service of air pollution removal would not be degraded. These results may help selecting urban tree species in future greening programs.