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Dyer GMC, Khomenko S, Adlakha D, Anenberg S, Behnisch M, Boeing G, Esperon-Rodriguez M, Gasparrini A, Khreis H, Kondo MC, Masselot P, McDonald RI, Montana F, Mitchell R, Mueller N, Nawaz MO, Pisoni E, Prieto-Curiel R, Rezaei N, Taubenböck H, Tonne C, Velázquez-Cortés D, Nieuwenhuijsen M. Exploring the nexus of urban form, transport, environment and health in large-scale urban studies: A state-of-the-art scoping review. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 257:119324. [PMID: 38844028 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.119324] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2024] [Revised: 05/30/2024] [Accepted: 05/31/2024] [Indexed: 06/15/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND As the world becomes increasingly urbanised, there is recognition that public and planetary health relies upon a ubiquitous transition to sustainable cities. Disentanglement of the complex pathways of urban design, environmental exposures, and health, and the magnitude of these associations, remains a challenge. A state-of-the-art account of large-scale urban health studies is required to shape future research priorities and equity- and evidence-informed policies. OBJECTIVES The purpose of this review was to synthesise evidence from large-scale urban studies focused on the interaction between urban form, transport, environmental exposures, and health. This review sought to determine common methodologies applied, limitations, and future opportunities for improved research practice. METHODS Based on a literature search, 2958 articles were reviewed that covered three themes of: urban form; urban environmental health; and urban indicators. Studies were prioritised for inclusion that analysed at least 90 cities to ensure broad geographic representation and generalisability. Of the initially identified studies, following expert consultation and exclusion criteria, 66 were included. RESULTS The complexity of the urban ecosystem on health was evidenced from the context dependent effects of urban form variables on environmental exposures and health. Compact city designs were generally advantageous for reducing harmful environmental exposure and promoting health, with some exceptions. Methodological heterogeneity was indicative of key urban research challenges; notable limitations included exposure and health data at varied spatial scales and resolutions, limited availability of local-level sociodemographic data, and the lack of consensus on robust methodologies that encompass best research practice. CONCLUSION Future urban environmental health research for evidence-informed urban planning and policies requires a multi-faceted approach. Advances in geospatial and AI-driven techniques and urban indicators offer promising developments; however, there remains a wider call for increased data availability at local-levels, transparent and robust methodologies of large-scale urban studies, and greater exploration of urban health vulnerabilities and inequities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georgia M C Dyer
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Sasha Khomenko
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Deepti Adlakha
- Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 5, 2628, Delft, Netherlands
| | - Susan Anenberg
- Environmental and Occupational Health Department, George Washington University, Milken Institute School of Public Health, 20052, New Hampshire Avenue, Washington, District of Colombia, United States
| | - Martin Behnisch
- Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development, Weberpl 1, 01217, Dresden, Germany
| | - Geoff Boeing
- University of Southern California, 90007, Los Angeles, United States
| | - Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia; School of Science, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, WC1E 7HT, London, United Kingdom
| | - Haneen Khreis
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Cambridge University, CB2 0AH, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Michelle C Kondo
- USDA-Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 100 North 20th Street, Ste 205, 19103, Philadelphia, PA, United States
| | - Pierre Masselot
- Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, WC1E 7HT, London, United Kingdom
| | - Robert I McDonald
- The Nature Conservancy, 4245 North Fairfax Drive Arlington, 22203, Virginia, United States
| | - Federica Montana
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Rich Mitchell
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, 90 Byres Road, Glasgow, G20 0TY, United Kingdom
| | - Natalie Mueller
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - M Omar Nawaz
- Environmental and Occupational Health Department, George Washington University, Milken Institute School of Public Health, 20052, New Hampshire Avenue, Washington, District of Colombia, United States
| | - Enrico Pisoni
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), 2749, Ispra, Italy
| | | | - Nazanin Rezaei
- University of California Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, 95064, California, United States
| | - Hannes Taubenböck
- German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Earth Observation Center (EOC), 82234, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; Institute for Geography and Geology, Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg, 97074, Würzburg, Germany
| | - Cathryn Tonne
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Daniel Velázquez-Cortés
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Mark Nieuwenhuijsen
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain.
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Wu Y, Wen B, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Sera F, Lavigne E, Li S, Guo Y. Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 187:108691. [PMID: 38718673 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2023] [Revised: 03/19/2024] [Accepted: 04/23/2024] [Indexed: 05/19/2024]
Abstract
Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979-2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17-13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56-14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27-15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yao Wu
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Bo Wen
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre On Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Shanshan Li
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
| | - Yuming Guo
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
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Lloyd SJ, Quijal-Zamorano M, Achebak H, Hajat S, Muttarak R, Striessnig E, Ballester J. The Direct and Indirect Influences of Interrelated Regional-Level Sociodemographic Factors on Heat-Attributable Mortality in Europe: Insights for Adaptation Strategies. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:87013. [PMID: 37606292 PMCID: PMC10443201 DOI: 10.1289/ehp11766] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2022] [Revised: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 07/19/2023] [Indexed: 08/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heat is a significant cause of mortality, but impact patterns are heterogenous. Previous studies assessing such heterogeneity focused exclusively on risk rather than heat-attributable mortality burdens and assume predictors are independent. OBJECTIVES We assessed how four interrelated regional-level sociodemographic predictors-education, life expectancy, the ratio of older to younger people (aging index), and relative income-influence heterogeneity in heat-attributable mortality burdens in Europe and then derived insights into adaptation strategies. METHODS We extracted four outcomes from a temperature-mortality study covering 16 European countries: the rate of increase in mortality risk at moderate and extreme temperatures (moderate and extreme slope, respectively), the minimum mortality temperature percentile (MMTP), and the underlying mortality rate. We used structural equation modeling with country-level random effects to quantify the direct and indirect influences of the predictors on the outcomes. RESULTS Higher levels of education were directly associated with lower heat-related mortality at moderate and extreme temperatures via lower slopes and higher MMTPs. A one standard deviation increase in education was associated with a - 0.46 ± 0.14 , - 0.41 ± 0.12 , and 0.41 ± 0.12 standard deviation (± standard error ) change in the moderate slope, extreme slope, and MMTP, respectively. However, education had mixed indirect influences via associations with life expectancy, the aging index, and relative income. Higher life expectancy had mixed relations with heat-related mortality, being associated with higher risk at moderate temperatures (0.33 ± 0.11 for the moderate slope; - 0.19 ± 0.097 for the MMTP) but lower underlying mortality rates (- 0.72 ± 0.097 ). A higher aging index was associated with higher burdens through higher risk at extreme temperatures (0.13 ± 0.072 for the extreme slope) and higher underlying mortality rates (0.93 ± 0.055 ). Relative income had relatively small, mixed influences. DISCUSSION Our novel approach provided insights into actions for reducing the health impacts of heat. First, the results show the interrelations between possible vulnerability-generating mechanisms and suggest future research directions. Second, the findings point to the need for a dual approach to adaptation, with actions that explicitly target heat exposure reduction and actions focused explicitly on the root causes of vulnerability. For the latter, the climate crisis may be leveraged to accelerate ongoing general public health programs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11766.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon J Lloyd
- Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marcos Quijal-Zamorano
- Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Hicham Achebak
- Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Raya Muttarak
- Department of Statistical Sciences "Paolo Fortunati", University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | | | - Joan Ballester
- Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
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Navas-Martín MÁ, López-Bueno JA, Ascaso-Sánchez MS, Follos F, Vellón JM, Mirón IJ, Luna MY, Sánchez-Martínez G, Díaz J, Linares C. Territory Differences in Adaptation to Heat among Persons Aged 65 Years and Over in Spain (1983-2018). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:4168. [PMID: 36901177 PMCID: PMC10002076 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20054168] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2022] [Revised: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is currently regarded as the greatest global threat to human health, and its health-related consequences take different forms according to age, sex, socioeconomic level, and type of territory. The aim of this study is to ascertain the differences in vulnerability and the heat-adaptation process through the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) among the Spanish population aged ≥65 years by territorial classification. A retrospective, longitudinal, ecological time-series study, using provincial data on daily mortality and maximum daily temperature across the period 1983-2018, was performed, differentiating between urban and nonurban populations. The MMTs in the study period were higher for the ≥65-year age group in urban provinces, with a mean value of 29.6 °C (95%CI 29.2-30.0) versus 28.1 °C (95%CI 27.7-28.5) in nonurban provinces. This difference was statistically significant (p < 0.05). In terms of adaptation levels, higher average values were obtained for nonurban areas, with values of 0.12 (95%CI -0.13-0.37), than for urban areas, with values of 0.09 (95%CI -0.27-0.45), though this difference was not statistically significant (p < 0.05). These findings may contribute to better planning by making it possible to implement more specific public health prevention plans. Lastly, they highlight the need to conduct studies on heat-adaptation processes, taking into account various differential factors, such as age and territory.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
- Doctorate Program in Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, National University of Distance Education, 28015 Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | - Fernando Follos
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL. Ferrol, 15401 A Coruña, Spain
| | | | - Isidro Juan Mirón
- Regional Health Authority of Castile La Mancha, 45500 Torrijos, Spain
| | | | | | - Julio Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Cristina Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
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Michetti M, Gualtieri M, Anav A, Adani M, Benassi B, Dalmastri C, D'Elia I, Piersanti A, Sannino G, Zanini G, Uccelli R. Climate change and air pollution: Translating their interplay into present and future mortality risk for Rome and Milan municipalities. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 830:154680. [PMID: 35314224 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154680] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2021] [Revised: 03/11/2022] [Accepted: 03/15/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Heat and cold temperatures associated with exposure to poor air quality lead to increased mortality. Using a generalized linear model with Poisson regression for overdispersion, this study quantifies the natural-caused mortality burden attributable to heat/cold temperatures and PM10 and O3 air pollutants in Rome and Milan, the two most populated Italian cities. We calculate local-specific mortality relative risks (RRs) for the period 2004-2015 considering the overall population and the most vulnerable age category (≥85 years). Combining a regional climate model with a chemistry-transport model under future climate and air pollution scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), we then project mortality to 2050. Results show that for historical mortality the burden is much larger for cold than for warm temperatures. RR peaks during wintertime in Milan and summertime in Rome, highlighting the relevance of accounting for the effects of air pollution besides that of climate, in particular PM10 for Milan and O3 for Rome. Overall, Milan reports higher RRs while, in both cities, the elderly appear more susceptible to heat/cold and air pollution events than the average population. Two counterbalancing effects shape mortality in the future: an increase associated with higher and more frequent warmer daily temperatures - especially in the case of climate inaction - and a decrease due to declining cold-mortality burden. The outcomes highlight the urgent need to adopt more stringent and integrated climate and air quality policies to reduce the temperature and air pollution combined effects on health.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Michetti
- Division of Models and Technology for Risk Reduction, ENEA Centro Ricerche Bologna, Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129 Bologna, Italy.
| | - M Gualtieri
- Division of Models and Technology for Risk Reduction, ENEA Centro Ricerche Bologna, Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129 Bologna, Italy
| | - A Anav
- Division of Models and Technology for Risk Reduction, ENEA Centro Ricerche Roma Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Santa Maria di Galeria, Rome, Italy
| | - M Adani
- Division of Models and Technology for Risk Reduction, ENEA Centro Ricerche Bologna, Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129 Bologna, Italy
| | - B Benassi
- Division of Health Protection Technologies, ENEA Centro Ricerche Roma Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Santa Maria di Galeria, Rome, Italy
| | - C Dalmastri
- Division of Health Protection Technologies, ENEA Centro Ricerche Roma Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Santa Maria di Galeria, Rome, Italy
| | - I D'Elia
- Division of Models and Technology for Risk Reduction, ENEA Centro Ricerche Roma, Lungotevere Thaon de Revel, 76, 00196 Rome, Italy
| | - A Piersanti
- Division of Models and Technology for Risk Reduction, ENEA Centro Ricerche Bologna, Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129 Bologna, Italy
| | - G Sannino
- Division of Models and Technology for Risk Reduction, ENEA Centro Ricerche Roma Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Santa Maria di Galeria, Rome, Italy
| | - G Zanini
- Division of Models and Technology for Risk Reduction, ENEA Centro Ricerche Bologna, Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129 Bologna, Italy
| | - R Uccelli
- Division of Health Protection Technologies, ENEA Centro Ricerche Roma Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Santa Maria di Galeria, Rome, Italy
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Folkerts MA, Bröde P, Botzen WJW, Martinius ML, Gerrett N, Harmsen CN, Daanen HAM. Sex differences in temperature-related all-cause mortality in the Netherlands. Int Arch Occup Environ Health 2022; 95:249-258. [PMID: 34089351 PMCID: PMC8755659 DOI: 10.1007/s00420-021-01721-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2021] [Accepted: 04/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Over the last few decades, a global increase in both cold and heat extremes has been observed with significant impacts on human mortality. Although it is well-identified that older individuals (> 65 years) are most prone to temperature-related mortality, there is no consensus on the effect of sex. The current study investigated if sex differences in temperature-related mortality exist in the Netherlands. METHODS Twenty-three-year ambient temperature data of the Netherlands were combined with daily mortality data which were subdivided into sex and three age classes (< 65 years, 65-80 years, ≥ 80 years). Distributed lag non-linear models were used to analyze the effect of ambient temperature on mortality and determine sex differences in mortality attributable to the cold and heat, which is defined as mean daily temperatures below and above the Minimum Mortality Temperature, respectively. RESULTS Attributable fractions in the heat were higher in females, especially in the oldest group under extreme heat (≥ 97.5th percentile), whilst no sex differences were found in the cold. Cold- and heat-related mortality was most prominent in the oldest age group (≥ 80 years) and to a smaller extent in the age group between 65-80 years. In the age group < 65 years temperature-related mortality was only significant for males in the heat. CONCLUSION Mortality in the Netherlands represents the typical V- or hockey-stick shaped curve with a higher daily mortality in the cold and heat than at milder temperatures in both males and females, especially in the age group ≥ 80 years. Heat-related mortality was higher in females than in males, especially in the oldest age group (≥ 80 years) under extreme heat, whilst in the cold no sex differences were found. The underlying cause may be of physiological or behavioral nature, but more research is necessary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mireille A Folkerts
- Department of Human Movement Sciences, Faculty of Behaviour and Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Van der Boechorststraat 7-9, 1081 BT, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Peter Bröde
- Leibniz Research Centre for Working Environment and Human Factors (IfADo), Dortmund, Germany
| | - W J Wouter Botzen
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Mike L Martinius
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Nicola Gerrett
- Department of Human Movement Sciences, Faculty of Behaviour and Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Van der Boechorststraat 7-9, 1081 BT, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Hein A M Daanen
- Department of Human Movement Sciences, Faculty of Behaviour and Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Van der Boechorststraat 7-9, 1081 BT, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
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7
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Krummenauer L, Costa L, Prahl BF, Kropp JP. Future heat adaptation and exposure among urban populations and why a prospering economy alone won't save us. Sci Rep 2021; 11:20309. [PMID: 34645902 PMCID: PMC8514539 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-99757-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2021] [Accepted: 09/28/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
When inferring on the magnitude of future heat-related mortality due to climate change, human adaptation to heat should be accounted for. We model long-term changes in minimum mortality temperatures (MMT), a well-established metric denoting the lowest risk of heat-related mortality, as a function of climate change and socio-economic progress across 3820 cities. Depending on the combination of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways evaluated, by 2100 the risk to human health is expected to decline in 60% to 80% of the cities against contemporary conditions. This is caused by an average global increase in MMTs driven by long-term human acclimatisation to future climatic conditions and economic development of countries. While our adaptation model suggests that negative effects on health from global warming can broadly be kept in check, the trade-offs are highly contingent to the scenario path and location-specific. For high-forcing climate scenarios (e.g. RCP8.5) the maintenance of uninterrupted high economic growth by 2100 is a hard requirement to increase MMTs and level-off the negative health effects from additional scenario-driven heat exposure. Choosing a 2 °C-compatible climate trajectory alleviates the dependence on fast growth, leaving room for a sustainable economy, and leads to higher reductions of mortality risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Linda Krummenauer
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD2 Climate Resilience, Potsdam, 14412, Germany. .,Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, Germany.
| | - Luís Costa
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD2 Climate Resilience, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Boris F Prahl
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD2 Climate Resilience, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Jürgen P Kropp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD2 Climate Resilience, Potsdam, 14412, Germany.,Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, Germany
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