Association between climatic factors and varicella incidence in Guangzhou, Southern China, 2006-2018

Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effect on Incidence of Varicella Under Age 35 - China, 2005-2021

What is already known about this topic?

Varicella is an acute respiratory infectious disease primarily affecting children. However, recent studies have indicated an increasing susceptibility to varicella among older age groups.

What is added by this report?

The findings demonstrate a significant rise in the incidence rate among individuals aged 15-19. Males under 20 years old were found to have a higher risk compared to females, whereas males had a lower risk compared to females aged 20-35 years.

What are the implications for public health practice?

This study is the first comparative analysis using varicella data reported between 2005 and 2021 to examine the contributions of age, period, and birth cohort to varicella incidence in China. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in China and identify high-risk groups. The results of this study will contribute valuable information for the development of varicella prevention policies.

Associations Between Air Temperature and Daily Varicella Cases - Jinan City, Shandong Province, China, 2019-2021

What is already known about this topic?

The impact of air temperature on varicella has been studied, but there is limited research exploring its effect on varicella by gender and age group.

What is added by this report?

We conducted a time series analysis to examine the differential effects of air temperature on varicella infection across different demographic groups. Our findings indicate that lower temperatures have a more pronounced influence on varicella incidence among males and children compared to females and adults.

What are the implications for public health practice?

These findings can assist in identifying populations that are vulnerable to temperature-related varicella and in guiding the implementation of effective measures for varicella control.

Association between meteorological factors and varicella incidence: a multicity study in Yunnan Province, China

This multicenter study aimed to investigate the relationship between varicella incidence and meteorological factors including mean temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, diurnal temperature difference, wind speed, and rainfall, as previous studies have produced varying results. Our study also sought to identify potential sources of heterogeneity. Data on reported daily varicella numbers and meteorological factors were collected for 14 cities in Yunnan Province from 2017 to 2021. A distribution-lagged nonlinear model was constructed to explore the relationship between meteorological conditions and varicella incidence in each included city. We then used multiple meta-regression to explore sources of heterogeneity using demographic economics indicators, air pollutants, and geographic location as potential modifiers. The cumulative hazard effect plot showed an inverted S-shape for the relationship between temperature and varicella, with the smallest RR (relative risk) (0.533, 95% CI: 0.401-0.708) at temperatures up to 27.2 °C. The maximum RR (1.171, 95% CI: 1.001-1.371) was obtained when the relative humidity was equal to 98.5%. The RR (1.164, 95% CI: 1.002-1.352) was greatest at a diurnal temperature range of 2 °C (1.164, 95% CI: 1.002-1.352) and least (0.913, 95% CI: 0.834-0.999) at a diurnal temperature range of 16.1 °C. The maximum RR (1.214, 95% CI: 1.089-1.354) was obtained at 0 h of sunshine, and the minimum RR (0.808, 95% CI: 0.675-0.968) was obtained at 12.4 h of sunshine. The RR (0.792, 95% CI: 0.633-0.992) was minimum at a wind velocity of 4.8 m/s. Residual heterogeneity ranged from 1 to 42.7%, with PM10 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm), GDP (gross domestic product), and population density explaining some of this heterogeneity. The temperature has a dual effect on varicella incidence. Varicella cases are negatively correlated with diurnal temperature range, sunshine duration, and wind speed, and positively correlated with relative humidity. GDP and PM10 may have a significant role in altering the association between temperature and varicella, while PM10 and population density may alter the association between wind velocity and varicella.

Impact of implementing a free varicella vaccination policy on incidence in Wuxi City, China: an interrupted time series analysis

Varicella vaccination is optional and requires self-payment. On 1 December 2018, Wuxi City launched a free varicella vaccination program for children. This study aimed to evaluate the changes in varicella incidence before and after the implementation of the policy. The data were obtained from official information systems and statistical yearbooks. We divided the period into chargeable (January 2017 to November 2018) and free (December 2018 to December 2021) periods. Interrupt time series analysis was used to conduct a generalised least-squares regression analysis for the two periods. A total of 51,071 varicella cases were reported between January 2017 and December 2021. After the implementation of the policy, there was a statistically significant decrease in the incidence of varicella (β2 = -0.140, P = 0.017), and the slope of the incidence also decreased by 0.012 (P = 0.015). Following policy implementation, the incidence decreased in all age groups, with the largest decline observed among children aged 8-14 years (β2 = -1.109, P = 0.009), followed by children aged ≤7 years (β2 = -0.894, P = 0.013). Our study found a significant reduction in the incidence of varicella in the total population after the introduction of free varicella vaccination in Wuxi City.

Analysis of the effect of temperature on tuberculosis incidence by distributed lag non-linear model in Kashgar city, China

The aim of this study was to explore the effect of temperature on tuberculosis (TB) incidence using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) from 2017 to 2021 in Kashgar city, the region with higher TB incidence than national levels, and assist public health prevention and control measures. From January 2017 to December 2021, a total of 8730 cases of TB were reported, with the higher incidence of male than that of female. When temperature was below 1 °C, it was significantly correlated with TB incidence compared to the median observed temperature (15 °C) at lag 7, 14, and 21, and lower temperatures showed larger RR (relative risk) values. High temperature produced a protective effect on TB transmission, and higher temperature from 16 to 31 °C has lower RR. In discussion stratified by gender, the maximum RRs were achieved for both male group and female group at - 15 °C with lag 21, reporting 4.28 and 2.02, respectively. At high temperature (higher than 20 °C), the RR value of developing TB for female group was significantly larger than 1. In discussion stratified by age, the maximum RRs were achieved for all age groups (≤ 35, 36-64, ≥ 65) at - 15 °C with lag 21, reporting 3.20, 2.07, and 3.45, respectively. When the temperature was higher than 20 °C, the RR of the 36-64-year-old group and the ≥ 65-year-old group was significantly larger than 1 at lag 21, while significantly smaller than 1 for cumulative RR at lag 21, reporting 0.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.01, 0.83) and 0.06, 95% CI (0.01, 0.44), respectively. In conclusion, low temperature, especially in extreme level, acts as a high-risk factor inducing TB transmission in Kashgar city. Males exhibit a significantly higher RR of developing TB at low temperature than female, as well as the elderly group in contrast to the young or middle-aged groups. High temperature has a protective effect on TB transmission in the total population, but female and middle-aged and elderly groups are also required to be alert to the delayed RR induced by it.

Exposure-response relationship between temperature, relative humidity, and varicella: a multicity study in South China

Varicella is a rising public health issue. Several studies have tried to quantify the relationships between meteorological factors and varicella incidence but with inconsistent results. We aim to investigate the impact of temperature and relative humidity on varicella, and to further explore the effect modification of these relationships. In this study, the data of varicella and meteorological factors from 2011 to 2019 in 21 cities of Guangdong Province, China were collected. Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were constructed to explore the relationship between meteorological factors (temperature and relative humidity) and varicella in each city, controlling in school terms, holidays, seasonality, long-term trends, and day of week. Multivariate meta-analysis was applied to pool the city-specific estimations. And the meta-regression was used to explore the effect modification for the spatial heterogeneity of city-specific meteorological factors and social factors (such as disposable income per capita, vaccination coverage, and so on) on varicella. The results indicated that the relationship between temperature and varicella in 21 cities appeared nonlinear with an inverted S-shaped. The relative risk peaked at 20.8 ℃ (RR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.22, 1.65). The relative humidity-varicella relationship was approximately L-shaped, with a peaking risk at 69.5% relative humidity (RR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.50). The spatial heterogeneity of temperature-varicella relationships may be caused by income or varicella vaccination coverage. And varicella vaccination coverage may contribute to the spatial heterogeneity of the relative humidity-varicella relationship. The findings can help us deepen the understanding of the meteorological factors-varicella association and provide evidence for developing prevention strategy for varicella epidemic.

Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of varicella in Lu'an, Eastern China, 2015-2020

Varicella (chickenpox) is a serious public health problem in China, with the most reported cases among childhood vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, and its reported incidence has increased over 20-fold since 2005. Few previous studies have explored the association of multiple meteorological factors with varicella and considered the potential confounding effects of air pollutants. It is the first study to investigate and analyze the effects of multiple meteorological factors on varicella incidence, controlling for the confounding effects of various air pollutants. Daily meteorological and air pollution data and varicella cases were collected from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2020, in Lu'an, Eastern China. A combination of the quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to evaluate the meteorological factor-lag-varicella relationship, and the risk of varicella in extreme meteorological conditions. The maximum single-day lag effects of varicella were 1.288 (95%CI, 1.201-1.381, lag 16 day), 1.475 (95%CI, 1.152-1.889, lag 0 day), 1.307 (95%CI, 1.196-1.427, lag 16 day), 1.271 (95%CI, 0.981-1.647, lag 4 day), and 1.266 (95%CI, 1.162-1.378, lag 21 day), when mean temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR), mean air pressure, wind speed, and sunshine hours were -5.8°C, 13.5°C, 1035.5 hPa, 6 m/s, and 0 h, respectively. At the maximum lag period, the overall effects of mean temperature and pressure on varicella showed W-shaped curves, peaked at 17.5°C (RR=2.085, 95%CI: 1.480-2.937) and 1035.5 hPa (RR=5.481, 95%CI: 1.813-16.577), while DTR showed an M-shaped curve and peaked at 4.4°C (RR=6.131, 95%CI: 1.120-33.570). Sunshine hours were positively correlated with varicella cases at the lag of 0-8 days and 0-9 days when sunshine duration exceeded 10 h. Furthermore, the lag effects of extreme meteorological factors on varicella cases were statistically significant, except for the extremely high wind speed. We found that mean temperature, mean air pressure, DTR, and sunshine hours had significant nonlinear effects on varicella incidence, which may be important predictors of varicella early warning.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella under Different Immunisation Strategies in Suzhou Prefecture, Jiangsu Province

Background: The varicella vaccine is excluded from the Chinese national immunisation programme but is included in the local expanded programme on immunisation (EPI) in the Suzhou Prefecture. This study investigated the epidemiological characteristics of the varicella cases during the implementation of different immunisation strategies in the Suzhou Prefecture, Jiangsu Province. Methods: In this study, we used descriptive statistics. Information on reported instances from 2012 to 2021 was first retrieved. Data on varicella cases were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). Similarly, information on vaccinated children was obtained from the Jiangsu Province Vaccination Integrated Service Management Information System (JPVISMIS). The census data in this study was procured from the Suzhou Bureau of Statistics. Results: From 2012 to 2021, a total of 118,031 cases of varicella were reported in Suzhou, and the average annual reported incidence was 91.35 per 100,000. The average yearly incidence after implementing the two-dose varicella vaccination decreased by 41.57% compared with the implementation of one dose. This study demonstrates two annual incidence peaks, a small peak between April and July and a prominent peak between October and January. It is also possible that this seasonal distribution is related to the geography of Suzhou. The average annual reported incidence between districts with a statistically significant difference (χ2 = 98.077, p < 0.05). The one-dose varicella vaccination coverage gradually increased from 55.34% in 2012 to 89.06% in 2021 and the two-dose varicella vaccination coverage gradually increased from 0.27% in 2012 to 82.17% in 2021. Conclusions: Administering the varicella vaccine in the local EPI has significantly decreased the incidence rate and the total number of cases. A two-dose vaccination schedule is still the best vaccination strategy for varicella vaccine effectiveness.

Association between ambient temperature and varicella among adults in Qingdao, China during 2008-2019

Little concern has been paid to the relationship between temperature and varicella among adults. Daily meteorological data and varicella cases in Qingdao among adults from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2019 were collected. A combination of quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was conducted to assess the temperature-lag-varicella relationship. We also estimated the lag-response curves for different temperatures and the exposure-response relationships for different lag days. The number of varicella cases was 10,296. Compared with the minimum-varicella temperature (25°C), we found the largest effect of temperature on varicella within 21 lag days was at 1°C (RR, 6.72; 95% CI, 2.90-15.57), and then the effect declined as the temperature increased. A similar trend of rising first and then falling was found in temperature-response curves for different lag days. A reverse U-shape lag pattern was found for different levels of temperatures. Temperature may affect varicella.

Influence of air pollutants on varicella among adults

Little attention has been paid to the relationship between air pollutants and varicella among adults. We used data collected in Qingdao, China from 2014 to 2019. A combination of quasi-Poisson generalized linear model (GLM) and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to evaluate the association between exposure to air pollutants and varicella. And the effects of exposure to extremely high concentration (at 97.5th percentile) and low concentration (at 2.5th percentile) of air pollutants on varicella were also calculated. The level II of GB3095-2012 was used as the reference. A 10 μg/m³ increase of PM_2.5 was significantly associated with an increased risk of varicella (lag day: 4, 5 and 6). The negative associations were found for NO₂ per 10 μg/m³ increase from lag 15 to 19 day. The high PM_2.5 concentration (135 μg/m³) was significantly associated with the increased risk of varicella (lag day: 6, 7). For NO₂, the negative association was found at high concentration (75 μg/m³) on lag 15 to 20 day; and the positive relationship was shown at low concentration (10 μg/m³) on lag 15 to 20 day. Exposure to PM_2.5 and NO₂ were significantly associated with the risk of varicella among adults.

Immunogenicity and safety of a live attenuated varicella vaccine in children 1-12 years of age: A randomized, blinded, controlled, non-inferiority phase 3 clinical trial

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of a live attenuated varicella vaccine produced using a cell factory process.

METHODS

In this randomized, blinded, controlled, non-inferiority phase 3 clinical trial conducted in Guizhou, healthy children aged 1-12 years were randomly assigned in a 2: 1 ratio to receive one dose of experimental or control vaccine. Physical examination and first blood collection were performed preimmunization on day 0. Diary cards were collected after day 15. Contact cards and second blood samples were collected on day 30. The primary immunogenicity endpoint was the positive conversion rate of the anti-varicella virus antibody at 30 days postimmunization in susceptible children. Secondary endpoints were the fourfold increase rate, positive conversion rate, geometric mean titer, and geometric mean increase at 30 days after immunization in the total cohort.

RESULTS

Of the 900 children assessed for eligibility, 894 received an experimental or control vaccine. Both the full analysis and safety analysis sets included 894 subjects. The seroconversion rate in the susceptible population was 95.84% in the experimental and 94.76% in the control group. The lower limit of the 95% confidence interval difference was -2.37%, which was greater than the non-inferiority margin set by the program (-10%). No significant difference in solicited adverse reactions was found between the groups. Within 6 months postimmunization, a total of 24 serious adverse events were reported, none related to the studied vaccine.

CONCLUSION

The live attenuated varicella vaccine produced using a cell factory process was highly immunogenic, safe, and non-inferior to the product in the market. Further studies need to be implemented in the immune persistence, the epidemiological effectiveness and the rare adverse reactions.

Tackling post-pandemic challenges with digital technologies: an empirical study

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of Covid-19 on social and eco-environmental sustainability. It will also investigate the effect of advanced technologies in the post-pandemic era.

Design/methodology/approach

To get the robust findings, GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) modeling is employed on the panel data of 50 countries across the globe.

Findings

The outcomes indicate that gross fixed capital, logistical operations, knowledge spillover are positive, while Covid-19 is negatively associated with international trade. The results also revealed that Covid-19 spurs poverty and vulnerable employment, while the fertility rate increase creates pressure on economic growth. Also, fossil fuel and energy consumption contribute to carbon emission, while green and advanced technologies may mitigate the environment's adverse effects.

Originality/value

This study is the first of its kind to provide a solution to the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic in the post-pandemic environment. Furthermore, researchers, managers and legislators can use this article's findings to formulate relevant policies for post-pandemic.

The impacts of COVID-19 measures on global environment and fertility rate: double coincidence

The study aims to examine the effects of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) measures on global environment and fertility rate by using the data of 1980 to 2019. The results show that communicable diseases including COVID-19 measures decrease carbon emissions and increase the chances of fertility rates in an account of city-wide lockdown. The knowledge spillover substantially decreases carbon emissions, while high energy demand increases carbon emissions. Poverty incidence increases fertility rate in the short-run; however, in the long-run, the result only supported with vulnerable employment and food prices that lead to increase fertility rates worldwide. The study concludes that besides some high negative externalities associated with COVID-19 pandemic in the form of increasing death tolls and rising healthcare costs, the global world should have to know how to direct high mass carbon emissions and population growth through acceptance of preventive measures, which would be helpful to contain coronavirus pandemic at a global scale.

Seasonal dynamics of varicella incidence in Bulgaria

Aim: Spatial and temporal distribution of varicella is heterogenic and insufficiently studied in Europe. The present study tries to fill the gap that exists about the seasonality of the infection in Bulgaria. Materials & methods: A 4-year retrospective study of the monthly and seasonal varicella epidemiology was performed at both national and district level. Results: In Bulgaria, varicella incidence peaked during winter (37% of the 2015–2018 cases), followed by spring (33%) and autumn (23%). Highly populated districts were more likely to follow this pattern, while less inhabited districts with smaller urbanized areas showed different periodicity of the infection. Conclusion: Winter peak in varicella incidence is positively associated with high accumulation of people in the large cities (>75,000 inhabitants).