The temporal characteristics of the lag-response relationship and related key time points between ambient temperature and hand, foot and mouth disease: A multicity study from mainland China

Effects of extreme meteorological factors and high air pollutant concentrations on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Jining, China

Background

The evidence on the effects of extreme meteorological conditions and high air pollution levels on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is limited. Moreover, results of the available studies are inconsistent. Further investigations are imperative to elucidate the specific issue.

Methods

Data on the daily cases of HFMD, meteorological factors and air pollution were obtained from 2017 to 2022 in Jining City. We employed distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) incorporated with Poisson regression to explore the impacts of extreme meteorological conditions and air pollution on HFMD incidence.

Results

We found that there were nonlinear relationships between temperature, wind speed, PM2.5, SO2, O3 and HFMD. The cumulative risk of extreme high temperature was higher at the 95th percentile (P95th) than at the 90th percentile(P90th), and the RR values for both reached their maximum at 10-day lag (P95th RR = 1.880 (1.261-2.804), P90th RR = 1.787 (1.244-2.569)), the hazardous effect of extreme low temperatures on HFMD is faster than that of extreme high temperatures. The cumulative effect of extreme low wind speeds reached its maximum at 14-day lag (P95th RR = 1.702 (1.389-2.085), P90th RR = 1.498(1.283-1.750)). The cumulative effect of PM2.5 concentration at the P90th was largest at 14-day lag (RR = 1.637 (1.069-2.506)), and the cumulative effect at the P95th was largest at 10-day lag (RR = 1.569 (1.021-2.411)). High SO2 concentration at the P95th at 14-day lag was associated with higher risk for HFMD (RR: 1.425 (1.001-2.030)).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that high temperature, low wind speed, and high concentrations of PM2.5 and SO2 are associated with an increased risk of HFMD. This study not only adds insights to the understanding of the impact of extreme meteorological conditions and high levels of air pollutants on HFMD incidence but also holds practical significance for the development and enhancement of an early warning system for HFMD.

City-level meteorological conditions modify the relationships between exposure to multiple air pollutants and the risk of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in the Sichuan Basin, China

Background

Several studies have examined the effects of city-level meteorological conditions on the associations between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) risk. However, evidence that city-level meteorological conditions modify air pollutant-HFMD associations is lacking.

Methods

For each of the 17 cities in the Sichuan Basin, we obtained estimates of the relationship between exposures to multiple air pollutants and childhood HFMD risk by using a unified distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Multivariate meta-regression models were used to identify the effects of city-level meteorological conditions as effect modifiers. Finally, we conducted subgroup analyses of age and sex to explore whether the modification effects varied in different subgroups.

Results

The associations between PM2.5/CO/O3 and HFMD risk showed moderate or substantial heterogeneity among cities (I 2 statistics: 48.5%, 53.1%, and 61.1%). Temperature conditions significantly modified the PM2.5-HFMD association, while relative humidity and rainfall modified the O3-HFMD association. Low temperatures enhanced the protective effect of PM2.5 exposure against HFMD risk [PM2.5 <32.7  μg/m3 or PM2.5 >100  μg/m3, at the 99th percentile: relative risk (RR) = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.03-0.60]. Low relative humidity increased the adverse effect of O3 exposure on HFMD risk (O3 >128.7 μg/m3, at the 99th percentile: RR = 2.58, 95% CI: 1.48-4.50). However, high rainfall decreased the risk of HFMD due to O3 exposure (O3: 14.1-41.4  μg/m3). In addition, the modification effects of temperature and relative humidity differed in the female and 3-5  years-old subgroups.

Conclusion

Our findings revealed moderate or substantial heterogeneity in multiple air pollutant-HFMD relationships. Temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall modified the relationships between PM2.5 or O3 exposure and HFMD risk.

Interactive effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on hand, foot, and mouth disease in Chengdu, China: a time-series study

OBJECTIVES

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a viral infectious disease that poses a substantial threat in the Asia-Pacific region. It is widely reported that meteorological factors are associated with HFMD. However, the relationships between air pollutants and HFMD are still controversial. In addition, the interactive effects between meteorological factors and air pollutants on HFMD remain unknown. To fill this research gap, we conducted a time-series study.

DESIGN

A time-series study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Daily cases of HFMD as well as meteorological and air pollution data were collected in Chengdu from 2011 to 2017. A total of 184 610 HFMD cases under the age of 15 were included in our study.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to investigate the relationships between HFMD and environmental factors, including mean temperature, relative humidity, SO₂, NO₂, and PM₁₀. Then, the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) and the proportion attributable to interaction were calculated to quantitatively evaluate the interactions between meteorological factors and air pollutants on HFMD. Bivariate response surface models were used to visually display the interactive effects.

RESULTS

The cumulative exposure-response curves of SO₂ and NO₂ were inverted 'V'-shaped and 'M'-shaped, respectively, and the risk of HFMD gradually decreased with increasing PM₁₀ concentrations. We found that there were synergistic interactions between mean temperature and SO₂, relative humidity and SO₂, as well as relative humidity and PM₁₀ on HFMD, with individual RERIs of 0.334 (95% CI 0.119 to 0.548), 0.428 (95% CI 0.214 to 0.642) and 0.501 (95% CI 0.262 to 0.741), respectively, indicating that the effects of SO₂ and PM₁₀ on HFMD were stronger under high temperature (>17.3°C) or high humidity (>80.0%) conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

There were interactive effects between meteorological factors and air pollutants on HFMD. Our findings could provide guidance for targeted and timely preventive and control measures for HFMD.

Short-term effects of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue: a time-series study in Guangzhou, China

Background

Limited evidence is available about the association between tropical cyclones and dengue incidence. This study aimed to examine the effects of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue and to explore the vulnerable populations in Guangzhou, China.

Methods

Weekly dengue case data, tropical cyclone and meteorological data during the tropical cyclones season (June to October) from 2015 to 2019 were collected for the study. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was conducted to quantify the association between tropical cyclones and dengue, controlling for meteorological factors, seasonality, and long-term trend. Proportion of dengue cases attributable to tropical cyclone exposure was calculated. The effect difference by sex and age groups was calculated to identify vulnerable populations. The tropical cyclones were classified into two levels to compare the effects of different grades of tropical cyclones on the dengue incidence.

Results

Tropical cyclones were associated with an increased number of dengue cases with the maximum risk ratio of 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.17–1.69) in lag 0 week and cumulative risk ratio of 2.13 (95% confidence interval 1.28–3.56) in lag 0–4 weeks. The attributable fraction was 6.31% (95% empirical confidence interval 1.96–10.16%). Men and the elderly were more vulnerable to the effects of tropical cyclones than the others. The effects of typhoons were stronger than those of tropical storms among various subpopulations.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that tropical cyclones may increase the incidence of dengue within a 4-week lag in Guangzhou, China, and the effects were more pronounced in men and the elderly. Precautionary measures should be taken with a focus on the identified vulnerable populations to control the transmission of dengue associated with tropical cyclones.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05486-2.

Study on the interaction between different pathogens of Hand, foot and mouth disease in five regions of China

Objectives

This study aims to explore the interaction of different pathogens in Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) by using a mathematical epidemiological model and the reported data in five regions of China.

Methods

A cross-regional dataset of reported HFMD cases was built from four provinces (Fujian Province, Jiangsu province, Hunan Province, and Jilin Province) and one municipality (Chongqing Municipality) in China. The subtypes of the pathogens of HFMD, including Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16), enteroviruses A71 (EV-A71), and other enteroviruses (Others), were included in the data. A mathematical model was developed to fit the data. The effective reproduction number (R _eff ) was calculated to quantify the transmissibility of the pathogens.

Results

In total, 3,336,482 HFMD cases were collected in the five regions. In Fujian Province, the R _eff between CV-A16 and EV-A71&CV-A16, and between CV-A16 and CV-A16&Others showed statistically significant differences (P < 0.05). In Jiangsu Province, there was a significant difference in R _eff (P < 0.05) between the CV-A16 and Total. In Hunan Province, the R _eff between CV-A16 and EV-A71&CV-A16, between CV-A16 and Total were significant (P < 0.05). In Chongqing Municipality, we found significant differences of the R _eff (P < 0.05) between CV-A16 and CV-A16&Others, and between Others and CV-A16&Others. In Jilin Province, significant differences of the R _eff (P < 0.05) were found between EV-A71 and Total, and between Others and Total.

Conclusion

The major pathogens of HFMD have changed annually, and the incidence of HFMD caused by others and CV-A16 has surpassed that of EV-A71 in recent years. Cross-regional differences were observed in the interactions between the pathogens.

TLR3 polymorphisms are associated with the severity of hand, foot, and mouth disease caused by enterovirus A71 in a Chinese children population

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) caused by enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) is a contagious viral disease, and toll-like receptors (TLRs) play essential roles in resisting the pathogen. The aim of this study was to assess the potential relationship between several TLRs polymorphisms and the HFMD severity in a Chinese children population. A total of 328 Chinese children with HFMD were included in the present study. The polymorphisms of TLR3 (rs3775290, rs3775291, rs3775296, rs1879026, rs5743312, rs5743313, rs5743303, rs13126816, and rs3775292), TLR4 (rs4986790, rs4986791, rs2149356, rs11536889, and rs41426344), TLR7 (rs179009, rs179010, rs179016, rs3853839, rs2302267, rs1634323, and rs5741880), and TLR8 (rs3764880, rs2159377, rs2407992, rs5744080, rs3747414, rs3764879, and rs5744069) genes were selected. The study indicated that individuals with the GG genotype of TLR3 single-nucleotide polymorphism rs1879026 had a higher risk of developing severe cases (GG vs. GT: OR = 1.875; 95% CI, 1.183-2.971; p = .007). Meanwhile, TLR3 rs3775290 CC genotype and C allele were associated with lower disease severity in females (CC vs. CT: OR = 0.350; 95% CI, 0.163-0.751; p = .006; C vs. T: OR = 0.566; 95% CI, 0.332-0.965; p = .036). TLR3 rs3775291 CC genotype showed 2.537 folds higher risk of developing severe cases in females (CC vs. CT: OR = 2.537; 95% CI, 1.108-5.806; p = .026). Moreover, TLR3 rs1879026 GG genotype was found to be related to increased risk of severe cases in males (GG vs. GT: OR = 2.076; 95% CI, 1.144-3.768; p = .016). The current findings show that the genetic variants of TLR3 rs1879026, rs3775290, and rs3775291 are associated with the severity of EV-A71-associated HFMD in a Chinese children population.

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease and Their Influencing Factors in Urumqi, China

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) remains a serious health threat to young children. Urumqi is one of the most severely affected cities in northwestern China. This study aims to identify the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of HFMD, and explore the relationships between driving factors and HFMD in Urumqi, Xinjiang.

METHODS

HFMD surveillance data from 2014 to 2018 were obtained from the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The center of gravity and geographical detector model were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of HFMD and identify the association between these characteristics and socioeconomic and meteorological factors.

RESULTS

A total of 10,725 HFMD cases were reported in Urumqi during the study period. Spatially, the morbidity number of HFMD differed regionally and the density was higher in urban districts than in rural districts. Overall, the development of HFMD in Urumqi expanded toward the southeast. Temporally, we observed that the risk of HFMD peaked from June to July. Furthermore, socioeconomic and meteorological factors, including population density, road density, GDP, temperature and precipitation were significantly associated with the occurrence of HFMD.

CONCLUSIONS

HFMD cases occurred in spatiotemporal clusters. Our findings showed strong associations between HFMD and socioeconomic and meteorological factors. We comprehensively considered the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of HFMD, and proposed some intervention strategies that may assist in predicting the morbidity number of HFMD.

The Short-term Effects of Temperature on Infectious Diarrhea among Children under 5 Years Old in Jiangsu, China: A Time-series Study (2015-2019)

The association between meteorological factors and infectious diarrhea has been widely studied in many countries. However, investigation among children under 5 years old in Jiangsu, China remains quite limited. Data including infectious diarrhea cases among children under five years old and daily meteorological indexes in Jiangsu, China from 2015 to 2019 were collected. The lag-effects up to 21 days of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) on infectious diarrhea were explored using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) approach. The cases number of infectious diarrhea was significantly associated with seasonal variation of meteorological factors, and the burden of disease mainly occurred among children aged 0–2 years old. Moreover, when the reference value was set at 16.7°C, Tmax had a significant lag-effect on cases of infectious diarrhea among children under 5 years old in Jiangsu Province, which was increased remarkably in cold weather with the highest risk at 8°C. The results of DLNM analysis implicated that the lag-effect of Tmax varied among the 13 cities in Jiangsu and had significant differences in 8 cities. The highest risk of Tmax was presented at 5 lag days in Huaian with a maximum RR of 1.18 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.29). Suzhou which had the highest number of diarrhea cases (15830 cases), had a maximum RR of 1.04 (95% CI:1.03, 1.05) on lag 15 days. Tmax is a considerable indicator to predict the epidemic of infectious diarrhea among 13 cities in Jiangsu, which reminds us that in cold seasons, more preventive strategies and measures should be done to prevent infectious diarrhea.