Synergies and tradeoffs among Sustainable Development Goals across boundaries in a metacoupled world

Gaps and opportunities in modelling human influence on species distributions in the Anthropocene

Understanding species distributions is a global priority for mitigating environmental pressures from human activities. Ample studies have identified key environmental (climate and habitat) predictors and the spatial scales at which they influence species distributions. However, regarding human influence, such understandings are largely lacking. Here, to advance knowledge concerning human influence on species distributions, we systematically reviewed species distribution modelling (SDM) articles and assessed current modelling efforts. We searched 12,854 articles and found only 1,429 articles using human predictors within SDMs. Collectively, these studies of >58,000 species used 2,307 unique human predictors, suggesting that in contrast to environmental predictors, there is no 'rule of thumb' for human predictor selection in SDMs. The number of human predictors used across studies also varied (usually one to four per study). Moreover, nearly half the articles projecting to future climates held human predictors constant over time, risking false optimism about the effects of human activities compared with climate change. Advances in using human predictors in SDMs are paramount for accurately informing and advancing policy, conservation, management and ecology. We show considerable gaps in including human predictors to understand current and future species distributions in the Anthropocene, opening opportunities for new inquiries. We pose 15 questions to advance ecological theory, methods and real-world applications.

Exploring the nexus between economic and environmental issues in the tourism sector at the country level. A replicable framework

In recent years, the tourism activities take experienced a steady growth in demand, yet it causes ecological damages, such as waste production and carbon dioxide emissions. This paper provides a theoretical framework for testing the interactions among sustainable development and economic growth in the tourism context and demonstrates that sustainability depends on both environmental impacts and some relationships among different factors. In particular, considering some of the key indicators proposed by Agenda 2030 and integrated in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the authors focused on the direct influence of tourism to Gross Domestic Product (TGDP), Environmental Performance Indicator (EPI) score, and Carbon Footprint (CF) as indicators that were used together with GDP and Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) to test five hypotheses and analyze their interactions for a sample country. The results reveal the statistical significance among these indicators in the light of Sustainable Development Goals n. 8, n. 12, and n. 13. Finally, Municipal Solid Waste, the first visible human effect due to tourism, presents a strong interaction with Carbon Footprint.

Unveiling complementarities between national sustainable development strategies through network analysis

The 2030 agenda of the United Nations provides a framework of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 232 indicators for its members to fulfill. The overall achievement critically depends on how nations understand the interactions between these SDGs and set priorities for development pathways. This study provides a comprehensive network analysis of global SDG complementarities, measured by the co-occurrences of SDG pairs' comparative advantages in the same region by adopting the 'product space' concept from economics. We construct the 'SDG space' at goal and indicator levels with the most recently available data and then validate its robustness by comparing it to the commonly used correlation network and confirm its predictive power using historical data. Network analysis reveals a strongly connected socioeconomic-related core and an environmental-related periphery, with 'bridge' indicators connecting different clusters. The goal-level space identifies the 'bridge' goals as SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), and SDG 15 (Life on Hand) in the environmental-related cluster, while identifying SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 6 (Clean water and Sanitation), and SDG 16 (Justice and Strong Institutions) in the socioeconomic cluster. The indicator-level space provides details to explain how they act as 'bridges' in the network. In particular, 16-9: Free Press Index is the 'bridge' indicator with the highest betweenness centrality value and acts as the bottleneck indicator in China for its overall sustainable development. Improving it can enhance connected indicators' performance, leading to positive cascading effects on different aspects of sustainability.

Global transboundary synergies and trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals from an integrated sustainability perspective

Domestic attempts to advance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in a country can have synergistic and/or trade-off effects on the advancement of SDGs in other countries. Transboundary SDG interactions can be delivered through various transmission channels (e.g., trade, river flow, ocean currents, and air flow). This study quantified the transboundary interactions through these channels between 768 pairs of SDG indicators. The results showed that although high income countries only comprised 14.18% of the global population, they contributed considerably to total SDG interactions worldwide (60.60%). Transboundary synergistic effects via international trade were 14.94% more pronounced with trade partners outside their immediate geographic vicinity than with neighbouring ones. Conversely, nature-caused flows (including river flow, ocean currents, and air flow) resulted in 39.29% stronger transboundary synergistic effects among neighboring countries compared to non-neighboring ones. To facilitate the achievement of SDGs worldwide, it is essential to enhance collaboration among countries and leverage transboundary synergies.

Three main dimensions reflected by national SDG performance

Unraveling the complexity of the 17 interacting sustainable development goals (SDGs) is crucial for their achievement. Empirically revealing the dimensions of the SDGs helps generalize the dominant features of SDGs and better understand their drivers. Here, using a database of 166 countries' progress toward achieving each individual SDG, we found that about 70% of the variability of national SDG performance can be captured by three dimensions: socioeconomic development at the expense of resource and climate, the environment, and development at the expense of equality. Moreover, these dimensions are mainly affected by the economy; as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita increases, the first dimension increases monotonically, the environment dimension decreases and then increases, and the inequality dimension increases and then decreases. Our findings indicate a dim prospect of eventually achieving all SDGs because of the conflicts between economic growth and resource and climate goals under the current development paradigm, highlighting the importance of sustainable transformation.

Leveraging the metacoupling framework for sustainability science and global sustainable development

Sustainability science seeks to understand human-nature interactions behind sustainability challenges, but has largely been place-based. Traditional sustainability efforts often solved problems in one place at the cost of other places, compromising global sustainability. The metacoupling framework offers a conceptual foundation and a holistic approach to integrating human-nature interactions within a place, as well as between adjacent places and between distant places worldwide. Its applications show broad utilities for advancing sustainability science with profound implications for global sustainable development. They have revealed effects of metacoupling on the performance, synergies, and trade-offs of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) across borders and across local to global scales; untangled complex interactions; identified new network attributes; unveiled spatio-temporal dynamics and effects of metacoupling; uncovered invisible feedbacks across metacoupled systems; expanded the nexus approach; detected and integrated hidden phenomena and overlooked issues; re-examined theories such as Tobler's First Law of Geography; and unfolded transformations among noncoupling, coupling, decoupling, and recoupling. Results from the applications are also helpful to achieve SDGs across space, amplify benefits of ecosystem restoration across boundaries and across scales, augment transboundary management, broaden spatial planning, boost supply chains, empower small agents in the large world, and shift from place-based to flow-based governance. Key topics for future research include cascading effects of an event in one place on other places both nearby and far away. Operationalizing the framework can benefit from further tracing flows across scales and space, uplifting the rigor of causal attribution, enlarging toolboxes, and elevating financial and human resources. Unleashing the full potential of the framework will generate more important scientific discoveries and more effective solutions for global justice and sustainable development.

Landscape pattern and ecosystem services are critical for protected areas' contributions to sustainable development goals at regional scale

Protected areas are essential for the conservation of biodiversity, natural and cultural resources, and contribute to regional and global sustainable development. However, since authorities and stakeholders concern more on the conservation targets of protected areas, how to better evaluate the protected areas' contributions to sustainable development goals (SDGs) remains generally understudied. To fill this knowledge gap, we chose the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) as the study area, mapped the SDGs in 2010, 2015 and 2020, detecting the interactive relationships among SDGs. Then we used the landscape pattern indices and ecosystem service (ES) proxies to describe the characteristics of national nature reserves (NNRs), and explore the contributions of protected areas to SDGs using panel data models. The results showed that from 2010 to 2020, most cities of QTP improved their SDG scores to >60. The three cities with the best SDG performance improved their average scores by nearly 20 %. Among the 69 pairs correlations of SDG indicators, 13 synergies and 6 trade-offs were observed. About 65 % of the SDG indicators were significantly correlated with landscape pattern or ESs of NNRs. Carbon sequestration had a significant positive effect on 30 % of the SDG indicators, while habitat quality had a negative effect on 18 % of the SDG indicators. For the landscape pattern indices, the largest patch index had a significant positive effect on 18 % of the SDG indicators. This study highlighted that the ESs and landscape pattern could well quantify the contribution of protected areas to SDGs, which can provide essential implications for protected area management and regional sustainable development.

Effects of global shocks on the evolution of an interconnected world

As the world grows more interconnected through the flows of people, goods, and information, many challenges are becoming more difficult to address since human needs are increasingly being met through global supply chains. Global shocks (e.g., war, economic recession, pandemic) can severely disrupt these interconnections and generate cascading consequences across local to global scales. To comprehensively evaluate these consequences, it is crucial to use integrated frameworks that consider multiple interconnections and flows among coupled human and natural systems. Here we use the framework of metacoupling (human-nature interactions within as well as across adjacent and distant systems) to illustrate the effects of major global shocks on the evolution of global interconnectedness between the early 1900s and the 2010s. Based on these results we make a few actionable recommendations to reduce the negative impacts of an ongoing global shock, the COVID-19 pandemic, to promote global sustainability.

International food trade benefits biodiversity and food security in low-income countries

To achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals related to food security and biodiversity, understanding their interrelationships is essential. By examining datasets comprising 189 food items across 157 countries during 2000-2018, we found that high-income countries exported more food to low-income countries than they imported. Many low-income countries, especially those with biodiversity hotspots, increasingly acted as net importers, suggesting that imports from high-income countries can benefit biodiversity in low-income countries. Because low-income countries without hotspots have rapidly raised their amounts of food exports to hotspot countries, such exports might help further reduce negative impacts on biodiversity. The increasing complexity of food trade among countries with and without biodiversity hotspots requires innovative approaches to minimize the negative impacts of global food production and trade on biodiversity in countries worldwide.

Mindful Application of Digitalization for Sustainable Development: The Digitainability Assessment Framework

Digitalization is widely recognized as a transformative power for sustainable development. Careful alignment of progress made by digitalization with the globally acknowledged Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is crucial for inclusive and holistic sustainable development in the digital era. However, limited reference has been made in SDGs about harnessing the opportunities offered by digitalization capabilities. Moreover, research on inhibiting or enabling effects of digitalization considering its multi-faceted interlinkages with the SDGs and their targets is fragmented. There are only limited instances in the literature examining and categorizing the impact of digitalization on sustainable development. To overcome this gap, this paper introduces a new Digitainability Assessment Framework (DAF) for context-aware practical assessment of the impact of the digitalization intervention on the SDGs. The DAF facilitates in-depth assessment of the many diverse technical, social, ethical, and environmental aspects of a digital intervention by systematically examining its impact on the SDG indicators. Our approach draws on and adapts concepts of the Theory of Change (ToC). The DAF should support developers, users as well policymakers by providing a 360-degree perspective on the impact of digital services or products, as well as providing hints for its possible improvement. We demonstrate the application of the DAF with the three test case studies illustrating how it supports in providing a holistic view of the relation between digitalization and SDGs.

When Local Trade-Offs between SDGs Turn Out to Be Wealth-Dependent: Interaction between Expanding Rice Cultivation and Eradicating Malaria in Rwanda

Interactions between SDGs are increasingly mapped and mediating factors that determine whether existing synergies or trade-offs can be identified. However, if and how the wealth status of the concerned population shapes whether SDG interaction constitutes a vicious or virtuous circle is largely overlooked. This article focuses on interaction between SDG2 (nutrition) and SDG3 (health), in particular, the relationship between rice production intensification and the fight against malaria, and thus the role of wealth in explaining the trade-off. This study employed a large-scale survey of rural households (n = 3968) in eastern Rwanda, conducted at a time when a rapid expansion of rice fields co-existed with a strong resurgence of malaria. Logistic regression shows that rice-cultivating households faced significant higher malaria risk, as proxied by fever incidence, confirming the negative externality of agricultural intensification on public health through offering a habitat for vector-borne diseases. Even though rice-cultivating households tend to be higher up the local wealth distribution than those outside the rice sector, its distributional effects are generally biased against the poor. Poorer households outside the rice sector hardly share in the benefits from increased rice production but suffer the consequences in terms of increased malaria risk. The case thus draws attention to the importance of using a distributional lens when analyzing interaction between SDGs locally.

Synergy Analysis of Knowledge Transfer for the Energy Sector within the Framework of Sustainable Development of the European Countries

The target for 2030 of reaching a 32% share of renewable energy in the gross final energy consumption can be achieved by speeding up the transformation pending the implementation of knowledge transfer (KT) policies that foster regional cooperation for the cost-effective development of renewables. The research purpose is the analysis of important factors in the development of the renewable energy sector through knowledge sharing and collaboration across the Member States in a comparable manner. The hypotheses are as follows: Hypothesis 1 (H1) there are synergies between knowledge transfer and economic impact through income and jobs for the renewable energy sector and Hypothesis 2 (H2) the EU countries have different profiles of synergy. The research proposition was established through the employment of a quantitative synergy and trade-offs analysis based on the knowledge transfer indicators and the sustainable development framework. The research method, namely the advanced sustainability analysis (ASA), uses the quantitative assessment tool for the understanding of synergies between two or three dimensions of sustainable development, presuming that the combined effect of the factors is greater than the sum of their individual effects. The current research comprises an evaluation of the renewable energy sector knowledge transfer policy models at the national level for 24 EU countries and four other European states, focusing on the capabilities to create synergies. The results of the study represent a valuable input for the policy makers, allowing for a coherent and sustainable planning and programming of the new electricity market, adopted through the Clean Energy Package, and following a highly dynamic and radically disruptive background, exploiting the ‘successful’ profiles.

Global red and processed meat trade and non-communicable diseases

Introduction

Rapid increases in the trade of global red and processed meat impede international efforts toward sustainable diets by increasing meat consumption. However, little research has examined cross-country variations in diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) because of meat trade. We aimed to examine the impact of red and processed meat trade on diet-related NCDs and to identify which countries are particularly vulnerable to diet-related NCDs due to red and processed meat trade.

Methods

By selecting 14 red meat and six processed meat items, we investigated bilateral meat trade flows across 154 countries. Then, we integrated health data and information on red and processed meat trade to quantify the country-specific burden of diet-related NCDs attributable to the meat trade using a comparative risk assessment framework.

Results

Results show that global increases in red and processed meat trade contributed to the abrupt increase of diet-related NCDs, and the attributable burden of diet-related NCDs had large geographical variations among countries. We also identified responsible exporting countries that increase diet-related NCD risks in importing countries. Over the period from 1993 to 2018, island countries in the Caribbean and Oceania were particularly vulnerable to diet-related NCD incidents and mortality due to large meat imports. In addition, countries in Northern and Eastern Europe have exceedingly increased attributable death and disability-adjusted life year rates via meat imports.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that both exporters and importers must urgently undertake cross-sectoral actions to reduce the meat trade’s health impacts. To prevent unintended health consequences due to red and processed meat trade, future interventions need to integrate health policies with agricultural and trade policies by cooperating with both responsible exporting and importing countries.

Socioeconomic and environmental effects of soybean production in metacoupled systems

Human-environment interactions within and across borders are now more influential than ever, posing unprecedented sustainability challenges. The framework of metacoupling (interactions within and across adjacent and distant coupled human-environment systems) provides a useful tool to evaluate them at diverse temporal and spatial scales. While most metacoupling studies have so far addressed the impacts of distant interactions (telecouplings), few have addressed the complementary and interdependent effects of the interactions within coupled systems (intracouplings) and between adjacent systems (pericouplings). Using the production and trade of a major commodity (soybean) as a demonstration, this paper empirically evaluates the complex effects on deforestation and economic growth across a globally important soybean producing region (Mato Grosso in Brazil). Although this region is influenced by a strong telecoupling process (i.e., soybean trade with national and international markets), intracouplings pose significant effects on deforestation and economic growth within focal municipalities. Furthermore, it generates pericoupling effects (e.g., deforestation) on adjacent municipalities, which precede economic benefits on adjacent systems, and may occur during and after the soybean production takes place. These results show that while economic benefits of the production of agricultural commodities for global markets tend to be localized, their environmental costs tend to be spatially widespread. As deforestation also occurred in adjacent areas beyond focal areas with economic development, this study has significant implications for sustainability in an increasingly metacoupled world.

A network approach to rank countries chasing sustainable development

In 2015, the United Nations established the Agenda 2030 for sustainable development, addressing the major challenges the world faces and introducing the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). How are countries performing in their challenge toward sustainable development? We address this question by treating countries and Goals as a complex bipartite network. While network science has been used to unveil the interconnections among the Goals, it has been poorly exploited to rank countries for their achievements. In this work, we show that the network representation of the countries-SDGs relations as a bipartite system allows one to recover aggregate scores of countries' capacity to cope with SDGs as the solutions of a network's centrality exercise. While the Goals are all equally important by definition, interesting differences self-emerge when non-standard centrality metrics, borrowed from economic complexity, are adopted. Innovation and Climate Action stand as contrasting Goals to be accomplished, with countries facing the well-known trade-offs between economic and environmental issues even in addressing the Agenda. In conclusion, the complexity of countries' paths toward sustainable development cannot be fully understood by resorting to a single, multipurpose ranking indicator, while multi-variable analyses shed new light on the present and future of sustainable development.

Modelling land system evolution and dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in the Luanhe River Basin, China: a scenario analysis of trade-offs and synergies between sustainable development goals

A more holistic understanding of land use and land cover (LULC) will help minimise trade-offs and maximise synergies, and lead to improved future land use management strategies for the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, current assessments of future LULC changes rarely focus on the multiple demands for goods and services, which are related to the synergies and trade-offs between SDGs and their targets. In this study, the land system (combinations of land cover and land use intensity) evolution trajectories of the Luanhe River Basin (LRB), China, and major challenges that the LRB may face in 2030, were explored by applying the CLUMondo and InVEST models. The results indicate that the LRB is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all four scenarios that were explored. The cropland intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend (Trend) scenario compared to those with more planning interventions (Expansion, Sustainability, and Conservation scenarios). Unless the forest area and biodiversity conservation targets are implemented (Conservation scenario), the forest areas are projected to decrease by 2030. The results indicate that water scarcity in the LRB is likely to increase under all scenarios, and the carbon storage will increase under the Conservation scenario but decrease under all other scenarios by 2030. Our methodological framework and findings can guide regional sustainable development in the LRB and other large river basins in China, and will be valuable for policy and planning purposes to the pursuance of SDGs at the sub-national scale.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-01004-y.

Range-wide assessment of the impact of China's nature reserves on giant panda habitat quality

Protected areas (PAs) form the backbone of global conservation efforts. Although many studies have evaluated the impact of PAs on land cover, human disturbances, and people's welfare, PAs' impact on wildlife habitat quality remains poorly understood. By integrating wildlife habitat mapping and information of 2183 rural households, we assessed the impacts of nature reserves (a type of PAs) across the entire geographic range of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) on panda habitat suitability change between 2001 and 2013 using the matching approach. We found the impact of nature reserves is concentrated in areas susceptible to human pressure, where 65% of the habitat suitability increase is attributable to the nature reserves' protection. The impact of nature reserves has spilled over to nearby unprotected areas and enhanced habitat suitability there. Nature reserves supported by the central government showed higher performance in improving habitat suitability than their counterparts supported by local governments. Older nature reserves perform better than those established more recently. Our results also show that local households' participation in tourism and labor migration (people temporarily leaving to work in cities) enhanced the ability of nature reserves to improve habitat suitability. These results and methods provide valuable information and tools to support effective management of PAs to enhance the habitat quality of giant pandas and other wildlife species in China and elsewhere.

Towards Understanding Interactions between Sustainable Development Goals: The Role of Climate-Well-Being Linkages. Experiences of EU Countries

The 2030 Agenda with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is a challenge for all countries in the world. Their implementation may turn out to be a compromise or the creation of effective interactions that dynamize sustainable development. To achieve the SDGs, it is essential to understand how they interact with each other. It seems that in the times of the climate and health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, caring for the environment and ensuring a healthy life and promoting well-being at all ages is the basis for environmental, economic and social sustainable development. The aim of the study is to compare the degree of implementation of the goals of sustainable development in the scope of goal 13 “Climate action” and goal 3 “Good health and well-being” in the EU countries. In addition, we analyze how trade-offs and synergies between these goals have developed. Data from the Eurostat database were used to achieve the goal. The study used the method of multivariate comparative analysis—linear ordering of objects. The technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was used to measure the studied phenomenon. The results indicate a different degree of implementation of the sustainable development goals related to climate change and the improvement of health and social well-being. Only a few countries have synergy in achieving these goals, most of them compromise, manifesting themselves in improving one goal over another. In the group of analyzed EU countries, a simultaneous deterioration in the effectiveness of achieving both objectives were also noted. Our research also shows that energy policy is an important attribute in improving the achievement of these goals. The conducted analysis fills the gap in the research on the implementation of selected sustainable development goals and their interactions. It contributes to the discussion on increasing the links between them, in particular with regard to emerging compromises. This research can provide a basis for re-prioritizing and intensifying the actions where individual EU countries are lagging most behind.

Impacts of irrigated agriculture on food-energy-water-CO2 nexus across metacoupled systems

Irrigated agriculture has important implications for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, there is a lack of systematic and quantitative analyses of its impacts on food–energy–water–CO₂ nexus. Here we studied impacts of irrigated agriculture on food–energy–water–CO₂ nexus across food sending systems (the North China Plain (NCP)), food receiving systems (the rest of China) and spillover systems (Hubei Province, affected by interactions between sending and receiving systems), using life cycle assessment, model scenarios, and the framework of metacoupling (socioeconomic-environmental interactions within and across borders). Results indicated that food supply from the NCP promoted food sustainability in the rest of China, but the NCP consumed over four times more water than its total annual renewable water, with large variations in food–energy–water–CO₂ nexus across counties. Although Hubei Province was seldom directly involved in the food trade, it experienced substantial losses in water and land due to the construction of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project which aims to alleviate water shortages in the NCP. This study suggests the need to understand impacts of agriculture on food–energy–water–CO₂ nexus in other parts of the world to achieve global sustainability.

Local human activities can lead to cross-border environmental impacts through the food–energy–water–CO₂ nexus. Here, the authors report wide variations in environmental impacts of irrigated agriculture across counties within the North China Plain under different environmental and socioeconomic scenarios.

Metacoupled Tourism and Wildlife Translocations Affect Synergies and Trade-Offs among Sustainable Development Goals across Spillover Systems

Synergies and trade-offs among the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have been hotly debated. Although the world is increasingly metacoupled (socioeconomic-environmental interactions within and across adjacent or distant systems), there is little understanding of the impacts of globally widespread and important flows on enhancing or compromising sustainability in different systems. Here, we used a new integrated framework to guide SDG synergy and trade-off analysis within and across systems, as influenced by cross-boundary tourism and wildlife translocations. The world’s terrestrial protected areas alone receive approximately 8 billion visits per year, generating a direct economic impact of US $600 billion. Globally, more than 5000 animal species and 29,000 plant species are traded across country borders, and the wildlife trade has arguably contributed to zoonotic disease worldwide, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We synthesized 22 cases of tourism and wildlife translocations across six continents and found 33 synergies and 14 trade-offs among 10 SDGs within focal systems and across spillover systems. Our study provides an empirical demonstration of SDG interactions across spillover systems and insights for holistic sustainability governance, contributing to fostering synergies and reducing trade-offs to achieve global sustainable development in the metacoupled Anthropocene.