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Tan L, Zhang X, Qi J, Sun D, Marek GW, Feng P, Li B, Liu DL, Li B, Srinivasan R, Chen Y. Assessment of the sustainability of groundwater utilization and crop production under optimized irrigation strategies in the North China Plain under future climate change. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 899:165619. [PMID: 37478948 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165619] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2023] [Revised: 07/10/2023] [Accepted: 07/16/2023] [Indexed: 07/23/2023]
Abstract
Over-exploitation of groundwater due to intensive irrigation and anticipated climate change pose severe threats to the water and food security worldwide, particularly in the North China Plain (NCP). Limited irrigation has been recognized as an effective way to improve crop water productivity and slow the rapid decline of groundwater levels. Whether optimized limited irrigation strategies could achieve a balance between groundwater pumping and grain production in the NCP under future climate change deserves further study. In this study, an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate climate change impacts on shallow groundwater levels and crop production under limited irrigation strategies to suggest optimal irrigation management practices under future climate conditions in the NCP. The simulations of eleven limited irrigation strategies for winter wheat with targeted irrigations at different growth stages and with irrigated or rainfed summer maize were compared with future business-as-usual management. Climate change impacts showed that mean wheat (maize) yield under adequate irrigation was expected to increase by 13.2% (4.9%) during the middle time period (2041-2070) and by 11.2% (4.6%) during the late time period (2071-2100) under three SSPs compared to the historical period (1971-2000). Mean decline rate of shallow groundwater level slowed by approximately 1 m a-1 during the entire future period (2041-2100) under three SSPs with a greater reduction for SSP5-8.5. The average contribution rate of future climate toward the balance of shallow groundwater pumping and replenishment was 62.9%. Based on the simulated crop yields and decline rate of shallow groundwater level under the future climate, the most appropriate limited irrigation was achieved by applying irrigation during the jointing stage of wheat with rainfed maize, which could achieve the groundwater recovery and sustainable food production.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lili Tan
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Research Center of Land Use and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Xueliang Zhang
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Research Center of Land Use and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Hebei Cangzhou Groundwater and Land Subsidence National Observation and Research Station, Cangzhou 061000, China
| | - Junyu Qi
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
| | - Danfeng Sun
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Research Center of Land Use and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Gary W Marek
- USDA-ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory, Bushland, TX 79012, USA
| | - Puyu Feng
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Key Laboratory of Arable Land Conservation in North China, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Baogui Li
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Research Center of Land Use and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
| | - De Li Liu
- NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia
| | - Baoguo Li
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Key Laboratory of Arable Land Conservation in North China, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Raghavan Srinivasan
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
| | - Yong Chen
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Research Center of Land Use and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; Key Laboratory of Arable Land Conservation in North China, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100193, China.
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Zhu Y, He C, Gasparrini A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Liu C, Bachwenkizi J, Zhou L, Cheng Y, Kan L, Chen R, Kan H. Global warming may significantly increase childhood anemia burden in sub-Saharan Africa. ONE EARTH (CAMBRIDGE, MASS.) 2023; 6:1388-1399. [PMID: 37904727 PMCID: PMC7615260 DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.09.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2023]
Abstract
Childhood anemia constitutes a global public health problem, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, it remains unknown whether global warming has an impact on childhood anemia. Here, we examined the association between annual temperatures and childhood anemia prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa and then projected childhood anemia burden attributable to climate change. Each 1°C increment in annual temperature was associated with increased odds of childhood anemia (odd ratio = 1.138, 95% confidence interval: 1.134-1.142). Compared with the baseline period (1985-2014), the attributable childhood anemia cases would increase by 7,597 per 100,000 person-years under a high-emission scenario in the 2090s, which would be almost 2-fold and over 3-fold more than those projected in moderate- and low-emission scenarios. Our results reveal the vulnerabilities and inequalities of children for the excess burden of anemia due to climate warming and highlight the importance of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies in LMICs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yixiang Zhu
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Cheng He
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
- IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
- Helmholtz Zentrum Mu€nchen - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Institute of Epidemiology, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Cong Liu
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
- IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
| | - Jovine Bachwenkizi
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Lu Zhou
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Yuexin Cheng
- Department of Hematology, The First People’s Hospital of Yancheng, Yancheng Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Yancheng, China
| | - Lena Kan
- Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
- IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
- IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
- Children’s Hospital of Fudan University, National Center for Children’s Health, Shanghai, China
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3
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Gharib AA, Blumberg J, Manning DT, Goemans C, Arabi M. Assessment of vulnerability to water shortage in semi-arid river basins: The value of demand reduction and storage capacity. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 871:161964. [PMID: 36737016 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161964] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2022] [Revised: 01/28/2023] [Accepted: 01/29/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Interest in securing reliable water supplies has increased due to climate change and rapid population growth. This challenge is significant in growing areas with limited water supplies. To meet water demands, water managers are considering new storage infrastructure to increase the reliability of water supplies while also identifying opportunities to reduce water use per person. Although these strategies change water consumption patterns, their success at reducing shortages across space and time for different climate change scenarios remains unclear. In this paper, population- and climate-dependent future water supply and demand models are developed and integrated into a water allocation model calibrated for the South Platte River Basin of Colorado. Eight future climate scenarios are simulated using four statistically downscaled models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Lastly, findings from the water allocation model simulations are generalized beyond the study area using a novel approach by introducing dimensionless indices to characterize water shortage and basin conditions. Results reveal a threshold ratio of total storage capacity to mean water supply with a value of 0.64 above which additional storage has no effect on total water shortages. This threshold communicates the limitation of building storage infrastructure as a strategy to adapt to decreasing average water supplies for basins considering increasing storage capacity. However, basins with low current capacity are likely to fall below the threshold and could invest in reservoirs to mitigate future shortages.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmed A Gharib
- Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Drainage Research Institute, National Water Research Center, Delta Barrage (El-Kanater), Cairo, Egypt.
| | - Joey Blumberg
- Agricultural and Resource Economics Department, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
| | - Dale T Manning
- Agricultural and Resource Economics Department, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
| | - Christopher Goemans
- Agricultural and Resource Economics Department, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
| | - Mazdak Arabi
- Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
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Panda KC, Singh RM, Singh VK, Singla S, Paramaguru PK. Impact of climate change induced future rainfall variation on dynamics of arid-humid zone transition in the western province of India. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 325:116646. [PMID: 36335699 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116646] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2022] [Revised: 09/26/2022] [Accepted: 10/26/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The transition of the Earth's climate from one zone to another is one of the major causes behind biodiversity loss, rural-urban migration, and increasing food crises. The rising rate of arid-humid zone transition due to climate change has been substantially visible in the last few decades. However, the precise quantification of the climate change-induced rainfall variation on the climate zone transition still remained a challenge. To solve the issue, the Representative Grid Location-Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (RGL-MARS) downscaling algorithm was coupled with the Koppen climate classification scheme to project future changes in various climate zones for the study area. It was observed that the performance of the model was better for the humid clusters compared to the arid clusters. It was noticed that, by the end of the 21st century, the arid region would increase marginally and the humid region would rise by 24.28-36.09% for the western province of India. In contrast, the area of the semi-arid and semi-humid regions would decline for the study area. It was observed that there would be an extensive conversion of semi-humid to humid zone in the peripheral region of the Arabian sea due to the strengthening of land-sea thermal contrast caused by climate change. Similarly, semi-arid to arid zone conversion would also increase due to the inflow of dry air from the Arabian region. The current research would be helpful for the researchers and policymakers to take appropriate measures to reduce the rate of climate zone transition, thereby developing the socioeconomic status of the rural and urban populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kanhu Charan Panda
- Department of Agricultural Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, UP, 221005, India; Department of Soil Conservation, National PG College (Barhalganj), DDU Gorakhpur University, Gorakhpur, UP, 273402, India.
| | - R M Singh
- Department of Agricultural Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, UP, 221005, India.
| | - Vijay Kumar Singh
- Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, Mahamaya College of Agriculture Engineering and Technology, Acharya Narendra Deva University of Agriculture And Technology, Kumarganj, Ayodhya, UP, 224229, India.
| | - Saurav Singla
- Department of Agricultural Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, UP, 221005, India.
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5
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Wang Y, Zhou Y, Franz KJ, Zhang X, Qi J, Jia G, Yang Y. Irrigation plays significantly different roles in influencing hydrological processes in two breadbasket regions. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 844:157253. [PMID: 35817114 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157253] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2022] [Revised: 07/04/2022] [Accepted: 07/05/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Agriculture is a major water user, especially in dry and drought-prone areas that rely on irrigation to support agricultural production. In recent years, the over-extraction of groundwater, exacerbated by climate change, population growth, and intensive agricultural irrigation, has led to a drop in water levels and influenced the hydrological cycle. Understanding changes in hydrological processes is essential for pursuing water sustainability. This study aims to estimate the amount and impact of irrigation on hydrological processes in two breadbasket regions, Jing-Jin-Ji (JJJ), China, and northern Texas (NTX), US. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to explore spatiotemporal variations of irrigation from 2008 to 2013 and compared changes in hydrological processes caused by irrigation. The results indicated that deficit irrigation is more common in JJJ than in NTX and can reduce approximately 50 % of irrigation water use in areas with intensively irrigated cropland. The applied irrigation varies less over time in NTX but fluctuates in JJJ. Compared with NTX, the higher irrigation intensity in JJJ results in a more significant change in downstream peak streamflow of around 6 m3/s. Moreover, the difference in crop growing seasons can lead to different impacts of irrigation on hydrological processes. For example, the percentage change of surface runoff under real-world relative to the no-irrigation scenario was the greatest, around 40 %, in JJJ and NTX. However, the peak change occurred at different times, with the nearing maturity of winter wheat in May in JJJ and corn in August in NTX. The great potential to reduce groundwater extraction by adopting water conservation irrigation techniques calls for policies and regulations to help farmers shift towards more sustainable water management practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yiming Wang
- Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA
| | - Yuyu Zhou
- Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA.
| | - Kristie J Franz
- Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA
| | - Xuesong Zhang
- USDA-ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Beltsville, MD 20705-2350, USA
| | - Junyu Qi
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Gensuo Jia
- Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Yun Yang
- USDA-ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Beltsville, MD 20705-2350, USA
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6
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Al-Chokhachy R, Peka R, Horgen E, Kaus DJ, Loux T, Heki L. Water availability drives instream conditions and life-history of an imperiled desert fish: A case study to inform water management. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 832:154614. [PMID: 35358530 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154614] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2021] [Revised: 03/09/2022] [Accepted: 03/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
In arid ecosystems, available water is a critical, yet limited resource for human consumption, agricultural use, and ecosystem processes-highlighting the importance of developing management strategies to meet the needs of multiple users. Here, we evaluated how water availability influences stream thermal regimes and life-history expressions of Lahontan cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi) in the arid Truckee River basin in the western United States. We integrated air temperature and stream discharge data to quantify how water availability drives stream temperature during annual spawning and rearing of Lahontan cutthroat trout. We then determined how in situ stream discharge and temperature affected adult spawning migrations, juvenile growth opportunities, and duration of suitable thermal conditions. Air temperatures had significant, large effects (+) on stream temperature across months; the effects of discharge varied across months, with significant effects (-) during May through August, suggesting increased discharge can help mitigate temperatures during seasonally warm months. Two models explained adult Lahontan cutthroat trout migration, and both models indicated that adult Lahontan cutthroat trout avoid migration when temperatures are warmer (~ > 12 °C) and discharge is higher (~ > 50 m3*s-1). Juvenile size was best explained by a quadratic relationship with cumulative degree days (CDD; days>4 °C) as size increased with increasing CDDs but decreased at higher CDDs. We also found an interaction between CDDs and discharge explaining juvenile size: when CDDs were low, higher discharge was associated with larger size, but when CDDs were high, higher discharge was associated with smaller size. Stream temperatures also determined the duration of juvenile rearing, as all juvenile emigration ceased at temperatures >24.4 °C. Together, our results illustrated how stream discharge and temperature shape the life-history of Lahontan cutthroat trout at multiple stages and can inform management actions to offset warming temperatures and facilitate life-history diversity and population resilience.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert Al-Chokhachy
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, 2327 University Way, Suite 2, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA.
| | - Roger Peka
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Lahontan National Fish Hatchery Complex, 1340 Financial Blvd., Suite 161, Reno, NV 89502, USA
| | - Erik Horgen
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Lahontan National Fish Hatchery Complex, 1340 Financial Blvd., Suite 161, Reno, NV 89502, USA
| | - Daniel J Kaus
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Lahontan National Fish Hatchery Complex, 1340 Financial Blvd., Suite 161, Reno, NV 89502, USA
| | - Tim Loux
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Lahontan National Fish Hatchery Complex, 1340 Financial Blvd., Suite 161, Reno, NV 89502, USA
| | - Lisa Heki
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Lahontan National Fish Hatchery Complex, 1340 Financial Blvd., Suite 161, Reno, NV 89502, USA
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Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance of a Mediterranean Watershed Using SWAT+. HYDROLOGY 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/hydrology8040157] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The consequences of climate change on food security in arid and semi-arid regions can be serious. Understanding climate change impacts on water balance is critical to assess future crop performance and develop sustainable adaptation strategies. This paper presents a climate change impact study on the water balance components of an agricultural watershed in the Mediterranean region. The restructured version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) model was used to simulate the hydrological components in the Sulcis watershed (Sardinia, Italy) for the baseline period and compared to future climate projections at the end of the 21st century. The model was forced using data from two Regional Climate Models under the representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios developed at a high resolution over the European domain. River discharge data were used to calibrate and validate the SWAT+ model for the baseline period, while the future hydrological response was evaluated for the mid-century (2006–2050) and late-century (2051–2098). The model simulations indicated a future increase in temperature, decrease in precipitation, and consequently increase in potential evapotranspiration in both RCP scenarios. Results show that these changes will significantly decrease water yield, surface runoff, groundwater recharge, and baseflow. These results highlight how hydrological components alteration by climate change can benefit from modelling high-resolution future scenarios that are useful for planning mitigation measures in agricultural semi-arid Mediterranean regions.
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Spatiotemporal Variation of Water Supply and Demand Balance under Drought Risk and Its Relationship with Maize Yield: A Case Study in Midwestern Jilin Province, China. WATER 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/w13182490] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
Under the background of global warming, the frequent occurrence and long-term persistence of drought events have substantial negative effects on agricultural production. As the main maize production area in midwestern Jilin Province, frequent drought and a shortage of irrigation water pose substantial threats to the production of maize. We analyzed the balance of water supply and demand in each growth period and the degree of maize yield affected by drought. The results indicate that the FIO-ESM climate model can effectively simulate the changes in temperature and precipitation, and was highly applicable to the study area. From 1980 to 2020, the drought risk indices for the sowing to jointing, jointing to tasseling, tasseling to milk-ripe, and milk-ripe to maturity stages were 0.62, 0.52, 0.48, and 0.60, respectively. In the future, the chances of a RCP8.5 scenario drought risk and an enhanced RCP4.5 scenario have eased. Spatially, the high-risk areas shift in a “west−central−southwest” pattern. Effective precipitation will decrease in the future, while the increasing water requirement of maize increases the dependence on irrigation water. The irrigation requirement index is more than 70% for all periods, particularly in the milk-ripe to maturity stage. The relative meteorological yields were positively correlated with the CWDI of the whole growth period, with the rate of reduction in maize yield and the yield reduction coefficient of variation at a high level of risk between 1980 and 2020. In the future, the negative impact of drought risk on the yield of maize lessened with no obvious trend in production. In particular, the rate of reduction and reduction coefficient of variation for the RCP8.5 scenario were 1.24 and 1.09, respectively.
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