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Liu C, Li W, Hu C, Xie T, Jiang Y, Li R, Soomro SEH, Xu Y. Research on runoff process vectorization and integration of deep learning algorithms for flood forecasting. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 362:121260. [PMID: 38833924 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2023] [Revised: 04/10/2024] [Accepted: 05/26/2024] [Indexed: 06/06/2024]
Abstract
Accurate multi-step ahead flood forecasting is crucial for flood prevention and mitigation efforts as well as optimizing water resource management. In this study, we propose a Runoff Process Vectorization (RPV) method and integrate it with three Deep Learning (DL) models, namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), and Transformer, to develop a series of RPV-DL flood forecasting models, namely RPV-LSTM, RPV-TCN, and RPV-Transformer models. The models are evaluated using observed flood runoff data from nine typical basins in the middle Yellow River region. The key findings are as follows: Under the same lead time conditions, the RPV-DL models outperform the DL models in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, root mean square error, and relative error for peak flows in the nine typical basins of the middle Yellow River region. Based on the comprehensive evaluation results of the train and test periods, the RPV-DL model outperforms the DL model by an average of 2.82%-22.21% in terms of NSE across nine basins, with RMSE and RE reductions of 10.86-28.81% and 36.14%-51.35%, respectively. The vectorization method significantly improves the accuracy of DL flood forecasting, and the RPV-DL models exhibit better predictive performance, particularly when the lead time is 4h-6h. When the lead time is 4-6h, the percentage improvement in NSE is 9.77%, 15.07%, and 17.94%. The RPV-TCN model shows superior performance in overcoming forecast errors among the nine basins. The research findings provide scientific evidence for flood prevention and mitigation efforts in river basins.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chengshuai Liu
- School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China
| | - Wenzhong Li
- School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China
| | - Caihong Hu
- School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China.
| | - Tianning Xie
- School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China.
| | - Yunqiu Jiang
- School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China
| | - Runxi Li
- School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China
| | - Shan-E-Hyder Soomro
- School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China; College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, China
| | - Yuanhao Xu
- School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China; School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China.
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2
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Ural-Janssen A, Kroeze C, Meers E, Strokal M. Large reductions in nutrient losses needed to avoid future coastal eutrophication across Europe. MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 197:106446. [PMID: 38518406 DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2023] [Revised: 01/19/2024] [Accepted: 03/10/2024] [Indexed: 03/24/2024]
Abstract
Rapid technological development in agriculture and fast urbanization have increased nutrient losses in Europe. High nutrient export to seas causes coastal eutrophication and harmful algal blooms. This study aims to assess the river exports of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), and identify required reductions to avoid coastal eutrophication in Europe under global change. We modelled nutrient export by 594 rivers in 2050 for a baseline scenario using the new MARINA-Nutrients model for Europe. Nutrient export to European seas is expected to increase by 13-28% under global change. Manure and fertilizers together contribute to river export of N by 35% in 2050. Sewage systems are responsible for 70% of future P export by rivers. By 2050, the top ten polluted rivers for N and P host 42% of the European population. Avoiding future coastal eutrophication requires over 47% less N and up to 77% less P exports by these polluted rivers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aslıhan Ural-Janssen
- Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, PO Box 47, 6700AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands; Laboratory of Bioresource Recovery (RE-SOURCE LAB), Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.
| | - Carolien Kroeze
- Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, PO Box 47, 6700AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Erik Meers
- Laboratory of Bioresource Recovery (RE-SOURCE LAB), Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, 9000, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Maryna Strokal
- Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, PO Box 47, 6700AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands
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3
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Oldenkamp R, Benestad RE, Hader JD, Mentzel S, Nathan R, Madsen AL, Jannicke Moe S. Incorporating climate projections in the environmental risk assessment of pesticides in aquatic ecosystems. INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 2024; 20:384-400. [PMID: 37795750 DOI: 10.1002/ieam.4849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2023] [Revised: 09/21/2023] [Accepted: 10/03/2023] [Indexed: 10/06/2023]
Abstract
Global climate change will significantly impact the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems, both directly and indirectly via the exacerbation of impacts from other stressors. Pesticides form a prime example of chemical stressors that are expected to synergize with climate change. Aquatic exposures to pesticides might change in magnitude due to increased runoff from agricultural fields, and in composition, as application patterns will change due to changes in pest pressures and crop types. Any prospective chemical risk assessment that aims to capture the influence of climate change should properly and comprehensively account for the variabilities and uncertainties that are inherent to projections of future climate. This is only feasible if they probabilistically propagate extensive ensembles of climate model projections. However, current prospective risk assessments typically make use of process-based models of chemical fate that do not typically allow for such high-throughput applications. Here, we describe a Bayesian network model that does. It incorporates a two-step univariate regression model based on a 30-day antecedent precipitation index, circumventing the need for computationally laborious mechanistic models. We show its feasibility and application potential in a case study with two pesticides in a Norwegian stream: the fungicide trifloxystrobin and herbicide clopyralid. Our analysis showed that variations in pesticide application rates as well as precipitation intensity lead to variations in in-stream exposures. When relating to aquatic risks, the influence of these processes is reduced and distributions of risk are dominated by effect-related parameters. Predicted risks for clopyralid were negligible, but the probability of unacceptable future environmental risks due to exposure to trifloxystrobin (i.e., a risk quotient >1) was 8%-12%. This percentage further increased to 30%-35% when a more conservative precautionary factor of 100 instead of 30 was used. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:384-400. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).
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Affiliation(s)
- Rik Oldenkamp
- Amsterdam Institute for Life and Environment (A-LIFE)-Section Chemistry for Environment and Health, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - John D Hader
- Department of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Sophie Mentzel
- Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway
| | - Rory Nathan
- Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Anders L Madsen
- Hugin Expert A/S, Alborg, Denmark
- Department of Computer Science, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
| | - S Jannicke Moe
- Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway
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4
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Landis WG, Mitchell CJ, Hader JD, Nathan R, Sharpe EE. Incorporation of climate change into a multiple stressor risk assessment for the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population in the Yakima River, Washington, USA. INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 2024; 20:419-432. [PMID: 38062648 DOI: 10.1002/ieam.4878] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2023] [Revised: 11/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/14/2023] [Indexed: 02/09/2024]
Abstract
One outcome of the 2022 Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Pellston Workshop on incorporating climate change predictions into ecological risk assessments was the key question of how to integrate ecological risk assessments that focus on contaminants with the environmental alterations from climate projections. This article summarizes the results of integrating selected direct and indirect effects of climate change into an existing Bayesian network previously used for ecological risk assessment. The existing Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model integrated the effects of two organophosphate pesticides (malathion and diazinon), water temperature, and dissolved oxygen levels on the Chinook salmon population in the Yakima River Basin (YRB), Washington, USA. The endpoint was defined as the entity, Yakima River metapopulation, and the attribute was defined as no decline to a subpopulation or the overall metapopulation. In this manner, we addressed the management objective of no net loss of Chinook salmon, an iconic and protected species. Climate change-induced changes in water quality parameters (temperature and dissolved oxygen levels) used models based on projected climatic conditions in the 2050s and 2080s by the use of a probabilistic model. Pesticide concentrations in the original model were modified assuming different scenarios of pest control strategies in the future, because climate change may alter pest numbers and species. Our results predict that future direct and indirect changes to the YRB will result in a greater probability that the salmon population will continue to fail to meet the management objective of no net loss. As indicated by the sensitivity analysis, the key driver in salmon population risk was found to be current and future changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen, with pesticide concentrations being not as important. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:419-432. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).
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Affiliation(s)
- Wayne G Landis
- Institute of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington, USA
| | | | - John D Hader
- Department of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Rory Nathan
- Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Emma E Sharpe
- Institute of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington, USA
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Moe SJ, Brix KV, Landis WG, Stauber JL, Carriger JF, Hader JD, Kunimitsu T, Mentzel S, Nathan R, Noyes PD, Oldenkamp R, Rohr JR, van den Brink PJ, Verheyen J, Benestad RE. Integrating climate model projections into environmental risk assessment: A probabilistic modeling approach. INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 2024; 20:367-383. [PMID: 38084033 DOI: 10.1002/ieam.4879] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Revised: 11/28/2023] [Accepted: 12/04/2023] [Indexed: 01/11/2024]
Abstract
The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) convened a Pellston workshop in 2022 to examine how information on climate change could be better incorporated into the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process for chemicals as well as other environmental stressors. A major impetus for this workshop is that climate change can affect components of ecological risks in multiple direct and indirect ways, including the use patterns and environmental exposure pathways of chemical stressors such as pesticides, the toxicity of chemicals in receiving environments, and the vulnerability of species of concern related to habitat quality and use. This article explores a modeling approach for integrating climate model projections into the assessment of near- and long-term ecological risks, developed in collaboration with climate scientists. State-of-the-art global climate modeling and downscaling techniques may enable climate projections at scales appropriate for the study area. It is, however, also important to realize the limitations of individual global climate models and make use of climate model ensembles represented by statistical properties. Here, we present a probabilistic modeling approach aiming to combine projected climatic variables as well as the associated uncertainties from climate model ensembles in conjunction with ERA pathways. We draw upon three examples of ERA that utilized Bayesian networks for this purpose and that also represent methodological advancements for better prediction of future risks to ecosystems. We envision that the modeling approach developed from this international collaboration will contribute to better assessment and management of risks from chemical stressors in a changing climate. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:367-383. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).
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Affiliation(s)
- S Jannicke Moe
- Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway
| | - Kevin V Brix
- EcoTox LLC, Miami, Florida, USA
- RSMAES, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA
| | - Wayne G Landis
- College of the Environment, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington, USA
| | - Jenny L Stauber
- CSIRO Environment, Lucas Heights, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- La Trobe University, Wodonga, Victoria, Australia
| | - John F Carriger
- Center for Environmental Solutions and Emergency Response, Office of Research and Development, USEPA, Land Remediation and Technology Division, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
| | - John D Hader
- Department of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Taro Kunimitsu
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
| | - Sophie Mentzel
- Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway
| | - Rory Nathan
- Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Pamela D Noyes
- Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, USEPA, Integrated Climate Sciences Division, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Rik Oldenkamp
- Chemistry for Environment and Health, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jason R Rohr
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA
| | - Paul J van den Brink
- Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Julie Verheyen
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Stress Ecology and Ecotoxicology, KU Leuven, Belgium
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Cains MG, Desrousseaux AOS, Boxall ABA, Molander S, Molina-Navarro E, Sussams J, Critto A, Stahl RG, Rother HA. Environmental management cycles for chemicals and climate change, EMC 4 : A new conceptual framework contextualizing climate and chemical risk assessment and management. INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 2024; 20:433-453. [PMID: 38044542 DOI: 10.1002/ieam.4872] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2023] [Revised: 10/24/2023] [Accepted: 11/06/2023] [Indexed: 12/05/2023]
Abstract
The environmental management cycles for chemicals and climate change (EMC4 ) is a suggested conceptual framework for integrating climate change aspects into chemical risk management. The interaction of climate change and chemical risk brings together complex systems that are imperfectly understood by science. Making management decisions in this context is therefore difficult and often exacerbated by a lack of data. The consequences of poor decision-making can be significant for both environmental and human health. This article reflects on the ways in which existing chemicals management systems consider climate change and proposes the EMC4 conceptual framework, which is a tool for decision-makers operating at different spatial scales. Also presented are key questions raised by the tool to help the decision-maker identify chemical risks from climate change, management options, and, importantly, the different types of actors that are instrumental in managing that risk. Case studies showing decision-making at different spatial scales are also presented highlighting the conceptual framework's applicability to multiple scales. The United Nations Environment Programme's development of an intergovernmental Science Policy Panel on Chemicals and Waste has presented an opportunity to promote and generate research highlighting the impacts of chemicals and climate change interlinkages. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:433-453. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariana G Cains
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | | | | | - Sverker Molander
- Environmental Systems Analysis, Department of Technology Management and Economics, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Eugenio Molina-Navarro
- Department of Geology, Geography and Environment, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Andrea Critto
- Department of Environmental Sciences Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Venice, Italy
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Kučera A, Vavříček D, Volařík D, Samec P, Úradníček L. Wooded biocorridors substantially improve soil properties in low-altitude rural benchlands. Heliyon 2024; 10:e24381. [PMID: 38312539 PMCID: PMC10835163 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2022] [Revised: 01/08/2024] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/06/2024] Open
Abstract
This study examines soil properties in 30- and 60-year-old agricultural biocorridors and provides a comparative overview with neighbouring farmland. Both mixed and undisturbed soil samples were collected from six farmland/biocorridor study areas to assess a wide spectrum of physical, hydrophysical, chemical and biological soil properties. Biocorridor soils were characterised by higher water retention capacities, porosity, aeration and soil carbon stock, the latter increasing with depth. On the other hand, biocorridor bulk density under forest vegetation cover was lower, indicating progressive soil restoration. Slightly lower soil reactions in biocorridor soils disproved the hypothesis that nutrient-rich soils under biocorridors would form substrates with a high base cation content, leading to soil acidification. Biological activity, expressed through respiration coefficients, was generally low due to unfavourable physical conditions (clayey or silty-clay substrates), with the lowest levels in biocorridors. Nevertheless, biocorridor soil microbiota displayed more effective utilisation of organic matter as a carbon and nitrogen source, with lighter-textured soils tending to show more effective organic matter utilisation after excluding the influence of land use. Our results confirm biocorridors as an important landscape component, contributing to both soil stability and local revitalisation of soil environments and further emphasising their potential as climate-change mitigation tools in their role as carbon sinks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aleš Kučera
- Department of Geology and Soil Science, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 3, 613 00, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Dušan Vavříček
- Department of Forest Botany, Dendrology and Geobiocoenology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 3, 613 00, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Daniel Volařík
- Department of Forest Botany, Dendrology and Geobiocoenology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 3, 613 00, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Pavel Samec
- Department of Geology and Soil Science, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 3, 613 00, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Luboš Úradníček
- Department of Forest Botany, Dendrology and Geobiocoenology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 3, 613 00, Brno, Czech Republic
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García-Delgado C, Delgado-Moreno L, Toro M, Puñal M, Martín-Trueba M, Eymar E, Ruíz AI. The role of biochar and green compost amendments in the adsorption, leaching, and degradation of sulfamethoxazole in basic soil. CHEMOSPHERE 2023; 344:140364. [PMID: 37797895 DOI: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2023.140364] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2023] [Revised: 06/06/2023] [Accepted: 10/03/2023] [Indexed: 10/07/2023]
Abstract
The fate of the antibiotic sulfamethoxazole in amended soils remains unclear, moreover in basic soils. This work aimed to assess the adsorption, leaching, and biodegradation of sulfamethoxazole in unamended and biochar from holm oak pruning (BC)- and green compost from urban pruning (CG)-amended basic soil. Adsorption properties of the organic amendments and soil were determined by adsorption isotherms of sulfamethoxazole. The leachability of this antibiotic from unamended (Soil) and BC- (Soil + BC) and GC- (Soil + GC) amended soil was determined by leaching columns using water as solvent up to 250 mL. Finally, Soil, Soil + BC, and Soil + GC were spiked with sulfamethoxazole and incubated for 42 days. The degradation rate and microbial activity were periodically monitored. Adsorption isotherms showed poor adsorption of sulfamethoxazole in unamended basic soil. BC and CG showed good adsorption capacity. Soil + BC and Soil + GC increased the sulfamethoxazole adsorption capacity of the soil. The low sulfamethoxazole adsorption of Soil produced quick and intense sulfamethoxazole leaching. Soil + BC reduced the sulfamethoxazole leaching, unlike to Soil + GC which enhanced it concerning Soil. The pH of adsorption isotherms and leachates indicate that the anion of sulfamethoxazole was the major specie in unamended and amended soil. CG enhanced the microbial activity of the soil and promoted the degradability of sulfamethoxazole. In contrast, the high adsorption and low biostimulation effect of BC in soil reduced the degradation of sulfamethoxazole. The half-life of sulfamethoxazole was 2.6, 6.9, and 11.9 days for Soil + GC, Soil, and Soil + BC, respectively. This work shows the benefits and risks of two organic amendments, BC and GC, for the environmental fate of sulfamethoxazole. The different nature of the organic carbon of the amendments was responsible for the different effects on the soil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos García-Delgado
- Department of Geology and Geochemistry, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, 28049, Madrid, Spain.
| | - Laura Delgado-Moreno
- Department of Agricultural Chemistry and Food Sciences, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, 28049, Madrid, Spain
| | - Marta Toro
- Department of Geology and Geochemistry, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, 28049, Madrid, Spain
| | - Marcos Puñal
- Department of Geology and Geochemistry, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, 28049, Madrid, Spain
| | - María Martín-Trueba
- Department of Geology and Geochemistry, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, 28049, Madrid, Spain; Department of Agricultural Chemistry and Food Sciences, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, 28049, Madrid, Spain
| | - Enrique Eymar
- Department of Agricultural Chemistry and Food Sciences, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, 28049, Madrid, Spain
| | - Ana I Ruíz
- Department of Geology and Geochemistry, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, 28049, Madrid, Spain
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MacLeod M, Domercq P, Harrison S, Praetorius A. Computational models to confront the complex pollution footprint of plastic in the environment. NATURE COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE 2023; 3:486-494. [PMID: 38177416 DOI: 10.1038/s43588-023-00445-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2022] [Accepted: 03/14/2023] [Indexed: 01/06/2024]
Abstract
The threat posed by plastic in the environment is poorly characterized due to uncertainties and unknowns about sources, transport, transformation and removal processes, and the properties of the plastic pollution itself. Plastic creates a footprint of particulate pollution with a diversity of composition, size and shape, and a halo of chemicals. In this Perspective, we argue that process-based mass-balance models could provide a platform to synthesize knowledge about plastic pollution as a function of its measurable intrinsic properties.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew MacLeod
- Department of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Prado Domercq
- Department of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Sam Harrison
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster, UK
| | - Antonia Praetorius
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
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10
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Nagesh P, Edelenbosch OY, Dekker SC, de Boer HJ, Mitter H, van Vuuren DP. Extending shared socio-economic pathways for pesticide use in Europe: Pest-Agri-SSPs. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 342:118078. [PMID: 37209644 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118078] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2023] [Revised: 04/14/2023] [Accepted: 04/30/2023] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
While pesticides are essential to agriculture and food systems to sustain current production levels, they also lead to significant environmental impacts. The use of pesticides is constantly increasing globally, driven mainly by a further intensification of agriculture, despite stricter regulations and higher pesticide effectiveness. To further the understanding of future pesticide use and make informed farm-to-policy decisions, we developed Pesticide Agricultural Shared Socio-economic Pathways (Pest-AgriSSPs) in six steps. The Pest-Agri-SSPs are developed based on an extensive literature review and expert feedback approach considering significant climate and socio-economic drivers from farm to continental scale in combination with multiple actors impacting them. In literature, pesticide use is associated with farmer behaviour and practices, pest damage, technique and efficiency of pesticide application, agricultural policy and agriculture demand and production. Here, we developed PestAgri-SSPs upon this understanding of pesticide use drivers and relating them to possible agriculture development as described by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems (Eur-Agri-SSPs).The Pest-AgriSSPs are developed to explore European pesticide use in five scenarios representing low to high challenges to mitigation and adaptation up to 2050. The most sustainable scenario (Pest-Agri-SSP1) shows a decrease in pesticide use owing to sustainable agricultural practices, technological advances and better implementation of agricultural policies. On the contrary, the Pest-Agri-SSP3 and Pest-Agri-SSP4 show a higher increase in pesticide use resulting from higher challenges from pest pressure, resource depletion and relaxed agricultural policies. Pest-Agri-SSP2 presents a stabilised pesticide use resulting from stricter policies and slow transitions by farmers to sustainable agricultural practices. At the same time, pest pressure, climate change and food demand pose serious challenges. Pest-Agri-SSP5 shows a decrease in pesticide use for most drivers, influenced mainly by rapid technological development and sustainable agricultural practices. However, Pest-Agri-SSP5 also presents a relatively low rise in pesticide use driven by agricultural demand, production, and climate change. Our results highlight the need for a holistic approach to tackle pesticide use, considering the identified drivers and future developments. The storylines and qualitative assessment provide a platform to make quantitative assumptions for numerical modelling and evaluating policy targets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Poornima Nagesh
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
| | - Oreane Y Edelenbosch
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Stefan C Dekker
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Hugo J de Boer
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Hermine Mitter
- Institute of Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, BOKU, Austria
| | - Detlef P van Vuuren
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands
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